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Adaptation Des Mesures Phytosanitaires Pour Les Ravageurs Et Maladies Des Cultures Fruitières À L'égard

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Adaptation Des Mesures Phytosanitaires Pour Les Ravageurs Et Maladies Des Cultures Fruitières À L'égard Adaptation des mesures phytosanitaires pour les ravageurs et maladies des cultures fruitières à l’égard des impacts des changements climatiques Équipe de réalisation : Annabelle Firlej, IRDA; Marie‐Pier Ricard, IRDA; Alessandro Dieni, IRDA; Élisabeth Ménard, IRDA; Gaétan Bourgeois, AAC et Patrick Grenier, Ouranos. Collaborateurs : Stéphanie Tellier, MAPAQ; François Gervais, CETAQ; Didier Labarre, CETAQ; Vincent Philion, IRDA; Gérald Chouinard, IRDA; Francine Pelletier, IRDA; Daniel Cormier, IRDA et Franz Vanoosthuyse, IRDA. Ce projet a été réalisé en vertu du sous‐volet 3. 2 du programme Prime‐Vert 2013‐2018 et il a bénéficié d’une aide financière du ministère de l’Agriculture, des Pêcheries et de l’Alimentation (MAPAQ) par l’entremise du Fonds vert dans le cadre du Plan d’action 2013‐2020 sur les changements climatiques du gouvernement du Québec. Ouranos est un partenaire scientifique et financier du projet. Table des matières 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 13 2 OBJECTIFS ............................................................................................................................ 15 3 DOCUMENTER L’IMPACT DES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES SUR LES ESPÈCES DE RAVAGEURS ET MALADIES PRÉSENTES AU QUÉBEC ET SUR LES ESPÈCES DE RAVAGEURS ET MALADIES EXOTIQUES SUSCEPTIBLES DE S’INTRODUIRE AU QUÉBEC. ...................................................................................... 16 3.1 REVUE DE LITTÉRATURE SUR L’IMPACT DES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES SUR LES ESPÈCES DE RAVAGEURS ET MALADIES PRÉSENTES AU QUÉBEC .........................................................................................................16 3.1.1 Méthodologie ........................................................................................................................16 3.1.2 Résultats ................................................................................................................................18 3.2 REVUE DE LITTÉRATURE SUR L’IMPACT DES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES SUR LES ESPÈCES DE RAVAGEURS ET MALADIES EXOTIQUES SUSCEPTIBLES DE S’INTRODUIRE AU QUÉBEC ..............................................................20 3.2.1 Méthodologie ........................................................................................................................20 3.2.2 Résultats ................................................................................................................................20 3.3 DISCUSSION ET ÉTUDES DE CAS ..............................................................................................................22 4 ÉVALUER L’IMPACT DES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES POUR SEPT ÉTUDES DE CAS ET IDENTIFIER DES MESURES D’ADAPTATION. .......................................................................................... 26 4.1 OBJECTIFS ......................................................................................................................................26 4.2 MÉTHODOLOGIE UTILISÉE .....................................................................................................................26 4.2.1 Modélisation bioclimatique ...................................................................................................26 4.2.2 Scénarios climatiques ............................................................................................................29 4.2.3 Analogues spatiaux et ateliers avec le secteur ......................................................................30 4.3 ÉTUDES DE CAS POUR LA CANNEBERGE ....................................................................................................31 4.3.1 Tordeuse des canneberges .....................................................................................................31 4.3.2 Pourriture amère ...................................................................................................................33 4.3.3 Modélisation bioclimatique ...................................................................................................34 4.3.4 Analyse des impacts en combinant les modèles bioclimatiques et les scénarios de changement climatique .........................................................................................................................37 4.3.5 Validation des impacts et identification des mesures d’adaptation grâce aux analogues spatiaux 56 4.4 ÉTUDES DE CAS POUR LES FRAISES ET FRAMBOISES .....................................................................................60 4.4.1 Scarabée japonais ..................................................................................................................60 4.4.2 Tarsonème du fraisier ............................................................................................................61 4.4.3 Anthracnose ...........................................................................................................................62 4.4.4 Modélisation bioclimatique ...................................................................................................62 4.4.5 Analyse des impacts en combinant les modèles bioclimatiques et les scénarios de changement climatique .........................................................................................................................65 4.4.6 Validation des impacts et mesures d’adaptation grâce aux analogues spatiaux ..................86 4.5 ÉTUDES DE CAS POUR LA POMME ...........................................................................................................94 4.5.1 Carpocapse de la pomme ......................................................................................................94 4.5.2 Punaise marbrée ....................................................................................................................95 4.5.3 Pourriture amère ...................................................................................................................96 4.5.4 Brûlure bactérienne ...............................................................................................................97 4.5.5 Modélisation bioclimatique ...................................................................................................98 4.5.6 Analyse des impacts en combinant les modèles bioclimatiques et les scénarios de changement climatique .......................................................................................................................102 2 4.5.7 Validation des impacts et identification des mesures d’adaptation grâce aux analogues spatiaux 133 4.6 LISTE DES RECOMMANDATIONS PAR SECTEUR DE PRODUCTION ...................................................................143 4.6.1 Secteur canneberge .............................................................................................................143 4.6.2 Secteur fraise et framboise ..................................................................................................144 4.6.3 Secteur pomme ....................................................................................................................146 5 ANALYSE ET DISCUSSION ................................................................................................... 148 5.1 REVUE DE LITTÉRATURE ET SÉLECTION DES ESPÈCES ..................................................................................148 5.2 MODÉLISATION DES IMPACTS DES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES .................................................................148 5.3 VALIDATION DES IMPACTS ET IDENTIFICATION DES MESURES D’ADAPTATION GRÂCE AUX ANALOGUES SPATIAUX ...151 5.4 ATELIERS POUR PRÉPARER L’ADAPTATION DES SECTEURS DE PRODUCTION AUX IMPACTS DES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ..................................................................................................................................152 6 SYNTHÈSE SUR LA PHYTOPROTECTION ET LES CHANGEMENTS CLIMATIQUES ..................... 154 7 CONCLUSIONS ET RECOMMANDATIONS ............................................................................ 155 8 RÉFÉRENCES ...................................................................................................................... 156 9 ANNEXES ........................................................................................................................... 175 9.1 FICHES D’INFORMATIONS SUR LES ESPÈCES EXOTIQUES À RISQUE D’ENVAHIR LE QUÉBEC .................................175 9.1.1 Epiphyas postvittana (Walker) .............................................................................................175 9.1.2 Archips fuscocupreanus Walsingham ..................................................................................177 9.1.3 Clepsis spectrana (Treitsche) ...............................................................................................179 9.1.4 Adoxophyes orana (FISCHER VON RÖSLERSTAMM) ............................................................181 9.1.5 Amphitetranychus viennensis (ZACHER) ..............................................................................183 9.1.6 Homalodisca vitripennis (Germar) .......................................................................................185 9.1.7 Archips xylosteanus (Linnaeus) ............................................................................................187 9.1.8 Ochropleura implecta Lafontaine ........................................................................................189 9.1.9 Platynota flavedana
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