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The Army's Role in Overcoming Anti-Access and Area Denial Challenges / John Gordon IV, John Matsumura

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The Army's Role in Overcoming Anti-Access and Area Denial Challenges / John Gordon IV, John Matsumura CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and EDUCATION AND THE ARTS decisionmaking through research and analysis. ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service INFRASTRUCTURE AND of the RAND Corporation. TRANSPORTATION INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 NATIONAL SECURITY POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY Support RAND SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Purchase this document TERRORISM AND Browse Reports & Bookstore HOMELAND SECURITY Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND Arroyo Center View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non- commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. C O R P O R A T I O N The Army’s Role in Overcoming Anti-Access and Area Denial Challenges John Gordon IV, John Matsumura ARROYO CENTER The Army’s Role in Overcoming Anti-Access and Area Denial Challenges John Gordon IV, John Matsumura Prepared for the United States Army Approved for public release; distribution unlimited The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Army under Contract No. W74V8H-06-C-0001. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Gordon, John, 1956- The Army's role in overcoming anti-access and area denial challenges / John Gordon IV, John Matsumura. pages cm Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-7993-0 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Deployment (Strategy) 2. United States. Army. 3. Military doctrine—United States. 4. Operational art (Military science) 5. World politics—21st century. 6. Asymmetric warfare. I. Matsumura, John. II. Title. U163.G67 2013 355.4—dc23 2013018910 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2013 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/permissions.html). Published 2013 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface This report presents findings from a research project conducted for the U.S. Army’s Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-3/5/7, Plans, Training, Mobilization, and Security Directorate (G-3), and the Army Capabilities Integration Center at Headquarters, U.S. Army Training and Doctrine Command, Fort Eustis, Virginia. The project began in the fall of 2011 under the dual sponsorship of these organizations. The purpose of the study was to examine the evolving anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) challenges that the U.S. military in general—and the Army in particular—would face in the 2012–2020 time frame. The research effort involved developing a variety of plausible scenarios set in the 2020 time period in which joint and Army forces could be employed. Threats ranged from low- to high-intensity situations that would present a variety of challenges to the Army and the other services. These scenarios were used as the basis for Concept Options Group (COG) exercises (essentially, tabletop war games). These exercises led to important insights regarding A2/AD threats to U.S. forces, as well as how those threats might be countered. In addition, supplementary research examined how threats are evolving and how the United States might counter those growing threats. This report will be followed by a restricted-distribution document that explains in detail the scenarios and the specific issues that were identified by each of the COGs and the related research. Meanwhile, this report serves to highlight the nature of the growing A2/AD threats to U.S. forces and some possible counters to those threats. This research was sponsored by the Army G-3 and the Army Capabilities Integration Center and conducted within RAND Arroyo Center’s Force Development and Technol- ogy Program. RAND Arroyo Center, part of the RAND Corporation, is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army. The Project Unique Identification Code (PUIC) for the project that produced this docu- ment is RAN126154. For more information on RAND Arroyo Center, contact the Director of Operations (telephone 310-393-0411, extension 6419; fax 310-451-6952; email Marcy_Agmon@rand. org), or visit Arroyo’s web site at http://www.rand.org/ard. iii Contents Preface ........................................................................................................... iii Figures ...........................................................................................................vii Summary ........................................................................................................ ix Acknowledgments ............................................................................................xiii Abbreviations ...................................................................................................xv CHapTER ONE Background ...................................................................................................... 1 CHapTER TWO The Range of Anti-Access/Area Denial Threats ........................................................... 5 Irregular Adversaries ............................................................................................. 5 Anti-Access Threats ............................................................................................ 5 Area Denial Threats ........................................................................................... 5 Hybrid Adversaries ............................................................................................... 6 State Adversaries .................................................................................................. 8 CHapTER THREE Key Threat Capabilities .......................................................................................11 The Rise of Long-Range Precision Strike Systems ..........................................................11 Ballistic Missiles ...............................................................................................11 Cruise Missiles and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles ...........................................................12 Maritime Anti-Access Capabilities ............................................................................14 The Proliferation of High-Quality Air Defenses ............................................................15 Medium-High-Altitude Defenses ...........................................................................15 Low-Altitude Air Defenses ..................................................................................16 Long-Range Multiple-Rocket Launchers and Tactical Missiles .........................................17 Cyber Threats ....................................................................................................18 Chemical and Biological Weapons ............................................................................18 Nuclear Weapons: A Very Special Case ......................................................................19 CHapTER FOUR A Joint Approach to Countering Anti-Access/Area Denial Challenges ..............................21 Overcoming Military Anti-Access Challenges ............................................................. 23 Anti-Access Challenges to the Air Force .................................................................. 23 Anti-Access Challenges to U.S. Naval Forces .............................................................25 v vi The Army’s Role in Overcoming Anti-Access and Area Denial Challenges Options to Reduce Anti-Access Threats to the Army ...................................................... 27 Mitigating the Air Defense Threat ......................................................................... 27 The Long-Range Artillery Threat ...........................................................................29
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