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Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment

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Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment VOLUME II Sector Reports Front Cover: © IOM/Muse Mohammed Inside Cover: © UNDP Somalia Table of Contents Acknowledgements 2 List of Figures 3 List of Tables 4 Methodology 5 Introduction 8 Productive Sectors 10 Agriculture – Irrigation and Rain-fed Crop Production 10 Agriculture – Livestock 22 Agriculture – Fisheries 33 Physical Sectors 42 Water Supply and Sanitation 42 Transport 50 Environment, Clean Energy and Natural Resource Management 57 Social Sectors 66 Health 66 Nutrition 78 Education 85 Cross-cutting Sectors 96 Food Security 96 Urban Development and Municipal Services 106 Livelihoods and Employment 114 Social Protection and Safety Nets 122 Gender 131 Governance 138 Conflict 145 Displacement 153 Disaster Risk Reduction, Risk Financing and Drought Resilience 165 Acknowledgments The DINA was prepared under the overall leadership of the Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development in partnership with the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs & Disaster Management of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Federal Member States (FMS). It was undertaken with strategic support from the World Bank Group, the United Nations and the European Union, within the framework of the 2008 Joint EU-UN-WB Declaration on Post- Crisis Assessments and Recovery Planning. Financial support has been provided by the European Union under the ACP-EU Natural Disaster Risk Reduction program implemented by the WB-led Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. Ipsos provided remote sensing and survey support, and Courage Services, Inc. provided remote sensing services. More than 180 national and international experts from the FGS, FMS, the Benadir Regional Administration, the World Bank Group, the United Nations and the European Union worked intensively across 18 sector/cross-cutting groups to collect, validate and analyze data, conduct field visits to consult with sub-national authorities, international and national non-governmental organizations and civil society stakeholders, to determine recovery needs and identify interventions for medium-term recovery and long-term resilience. 2 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment List of Figures Figure 1: Damages to Physical Infrastructure and Banana Trees (in USD) 14 Figure 2: Somalia Livestock Exports 2012-17 24 Figure 3: Estimated Economic Losses from Livestock due to Drought – Somalia, 2016-17 25 Figure 4: People Per Functional Borehole and Number of Boreholes by Region (Non-Riverine Regions) 45 Figure 5: Potential Drought Vulnerability Based on Water Point Composition (Non-Riverine Regions) 45 Figure 6: Boreholes and Drought Edges 46 Figure 7: Distribution of Needs By Region 49 Figure 8: Map of Somalia Showing Road Network and Access Constraints 52 Figure 9: Examples of Satellite Imagery 53 Figure 10: Provisional Road Condition 54 Figure 11: IDP Settlements and Roads in Kismayo 55 Figure 12: Land Degradation Affecting Vegetation Biomass in Different Regions of Somalia, 2017 59 Figure 13: Healthcare Facilities in Somalia 68 Figure 14: Map of Healthcare Facilities in Somalia 69 Figure 15: Somalia Health Snapshot 70 Figure 16: Baseline Data on the Health Sector 72 Figure 17: Number of People Receiving Primary or Basic Secondary Care (Per Month) 73 Figure 18: AWD/Cholera Cases: Somalia Districts Affected by AWD and Attack Rates to Week 34 75 Figure 19: GAM Trends in Different Regions in Somalia 2007-2014 79 Figure 20: GAM and SAM Trend of Somalia 80 Figure 21: Malnutrition Projection Over Time in Somalia 80 Figure 22: Critical Issues with Food Access 82 Figure 23: Comparison of Children enrolled against forced out of school 90 Figure 24: Teachers and Learning Materials data, Somalia Education Cluster, 2016 91 Figure 25: Number of People in Crisis (IPC 3) and Emergency (IPC 4) 99 Figure 26: Number of People Assisted through Food and/or Cash, Jan-Sep 2017 100 Figure 27: Monthly Average Number of Beneficiaries Assisted Through Food and/or Cash 100 Figure 28: Maps 1-2: IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase - Projections 104 Figure 29: Beneficiaries Reached from the Sectoral 3W Reporting 124 Figure 30: Life Cycle Risks 128 Figure 31: Action Plan 129 Figure 32: Somalia: Fatalities by District and drought intensity 147 Figure 33: Evidence of new IDP shelters in the vicinity of Baidoa 156 Figure 34: Evidence of new IDP shelters in the vicinity of Mogadishu 156 Figure 35: Official Development Assistance (ODA) for Somalia, 2007 – 2017 168 3 List of Tables Table 1: Summary Damage and Losses for All Crops *(in USD) 13 Table 2: Damages to Banana Trees (in USD), by Region 15 Table 3: Summary of Damage and Loss for All Crops (in physical units) 16 Table 4: Summary Losses for Crops (in USD) 17 Table 5: Summary Needs for Crops (In USD) 21 Table 6: Total Estimated Livestock Population before Drought 23 Table 7: Livestock Export (2012-2017) 24 Table 8: Summary Table of Damage and Losses for Sector (in local currency and USD) 27 Table 9: Summary Needs for Livestock 32 Table 10: Baseline data for income from fishing 34 Table 11: Damage and Losses for Sector (in local currency and USD) 35 Table 12: Freshwater fish market prices – Mogadishu Market 15/10/17 36 Table 13: Distribution of Needs by Region 39 Table 14: Summary Needs for Fisheries 40 Table 15: Summary Needs for Water Supply and Sanitation 49 Table 16: Classified Road network in Somalia (km) 50 Table 17: Length of Regional Roads according to Class (km) 51 Table 18: Length of roads mapped using satellite imagery 53 Table 19: Summary Needs for Transport 56 Table 20: Impact of the 2017 Somalia drought on vegetation resources 58 Table 21: Impact of the 2017 Somalia drought on biodiversity 60 Table 22: Impact of the 2017 Somalia drought on soil resources and soil quality 61 Table 23: Impact of the 2017 Somalia drought on household energy and charcoal production 62 Table 24: Summary Needs for Environment, Clean Energy, and Resource Management 64 Table 25: Snapshot of the Somali Health System Progress towards MDGs in Comparison to Rest of Sub Saharan Africa 67 Table 26: Summary Table of Damage and Losses for Sector (in USD) 73 Table 27: Numbers of Various Health Cadres 74 Table 28: Summary Needs for Health 77 Table 29: Nutrition Sector Losses 83 Table 30: Summary Needs for Nutrition 85 Table 31: Estimated Frequency and impacts of emergencies in Somaliland 2012-2016 85 Table 32: Somalia Drought displacements, top destinations and top departure regions 86 Table 33: Key Baseline Data for the Sector 88 Table 34: Summary Needs for Education 95 Table 35: Pre-drought (Baseline) Average Number of Acutely Food Insecure People in Somalia by Region 98 Table 36: Impact of Drought on # of People Requiring Urgent Food Security Assistance 101 Table 37: Commercial Import of Cereals in Somalia (in tonnes) 101 Table 38: The estimated cost of food security assistance (cash and/food) due to the current drought (in USD) 102 Table 39: The estimated cost of increased commercial imports due to the current drought 103 Table 40: Summary Needs for Food Security 105 Table 41: Summary Needs for Urban Development and Municipal Services 113 Table 42: Estimated Direct Losses in the Livestock Sector 117 Table 43: Summary Needs for Livelihoods and Employment 121 Table 44: Characteristics of Vulnerability 126 Table 45: Summary Needs for Social Protection and Safety Nets 130 Table 46: Detailed Short, Medium, and Long-term Recovery Needs 136 Table 47: Summary Needs for Gender 138 Table 48: Summary Needs for Governance 145 Table 49: Summary Needs for Displacement 164 Table 50: Summary Needs for Disaster Risk Reduction and Drought Resilience 175 4 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment Methodology The DINA follows the standard PDNA methodology developed by the UN System, World Bank and the European Union that incorporates a collection of analytical methods, tools and techniques developed for post-disaster assessments and recovery planning, ensuring sector-to-sector comparability and homogeneity in the definition of basic concepts of damages, losses and post-disaster recovery needs. The assessment builds on primary and secondary data related to damage and loss in the identified sectors, which are provided by FGS, FMS and development partners who supported the DINA. Damage and Loss Quantification:The effects of the drought on each sector have been assessed in terms of damages and losses. • Damage is defined as total or partial destruction of physical assets existing in the affected area. Damages occur during and immediately after the disaster and are measured in physical units (i.e., number of damaged boreholes, head of livestock, hectares of land, etc.). Their monetary values are expressed as the replacement costs according to prices prevailing just before the event. • Losses are defined as changes in economic flows arising from the disaster. They occur until full economic recovery and reconstruction is achieved, in some cases lasting for several years, but for the purposes of this assessment, losses have been projected up through December 2017. Typical losses include: the disruption in the production and access to goods and services, disruption in governance, and losses associated with increased or changed risk (for example, in a drought/flood cycle, the increased poverty, malnutrition, livelihoods and welfare losses and less sustainability of life cycles of the affected population). Classification and Quantification of Recovery Needs: Recovery needs are the costs of recommended interventions and resources that include: the reconstruction needs estimated as the requirements for financing reconstruction, replacement or repair of the physical assets that were damaged or destroyed by the disaster; and recovery needs estimated on the basis of the financial resources required for the rehabilitation of basic services, reactivation of productive activities and economic flows such as trade and commerce, or immediate reactivation of personal or household income. Recovery needs also include capacity building and operational costs for service delivery that are necessary for the implementation of interventions.
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