Online Appendix
Figure S1. Gain, persistence, and loss in potential distribution of western redcedar under
the emission scenario A2A for two future time periods (2050s, 2080s)
compared to baseline extent (inset), based on degree of agreement among three
GCMs (CSIRO, CCCMA, HADCM3).
1
Figure S2. Gain, persistence, and loss in potential distribution of Sitka spruce under the
emission scenario A2A for two future time periods (2050s, 2080s) compared to
baseline extent (inset) based on degree of agreement among three GCMs
(CSIRO, CCCMA, HADCM3).
2
Figure S3. Gain, persistence, and loss in potential distribution of western hemlock under
the emission scenario A2A for two future time periods (2050s, 2080s)
compared to baseline extent (inset) based on degree of agreement among three
GCMs (CSIRO, CCCMA, HADCM3).
3
Figure S4. Gain, persistence, and loss in potential distribution of Pacific silver fir under
the emission scenario A2A for two future time periods (2050s, 2080s)
compared to baseline extent (inset) based on degree of agreement among three
GCMs (CSIRO, CCCMA, HADCM3).
4
Figure S5. Gain, persistence, and loss in potential distribution of grand fir under the
emission scenario A2A for two future time periods (2050s, 2080s) compared to
baseline extent (inset), based on degree of agreement among three GCMs
(CSIRO, CCCMA, HADCM3).
5
Figure S6. Gain, persistence, and loss in potential distribution of Alaska yellow-cedar
under the emission scenario A2A for two future time periods (2050s, 2080s)
compared to baseline extent (inset) based on degree of agreement among three
GCMs (CSIRO, CCCMA, HADCM3).
6
Figure S7. Gain, persistence, and loss in potential distribution of mountain hemlock under
the emission scenario A2A for two future time periods (2050s, 2080s)
compared to baseline extent (inset) based on degree of agreement among three
GCMs (CSIRO, CCCMA, HADCM3).
7 TABLE S1. Expected and modeled distributions of Pacific coastal focal rainforest species
based on species experts and the literature.
Species Range Habitat Climate Expected Modeled
preference envelope shift shift
Western Along coast 0-1500m Wet Retraction of High redcedar from Alaska elevation; climates riparian persistence
to California, Found on west of the populations throughout
also inland various Cascades, as runoff BC and
to Alberta, substrates, especially declines and coastal AK.
Idaho, and commonly on in BC and fires Expansion to
Montana. moist sites, in the Olympic intensify. higher
mixed Peninsula. Southern elevations
coniferous Dry interior contraction and latitudes.
forests. climates of coastal Contraction
restricted to range. in SE
riparian portions of
habitats the range.
west of the
Rocky
Mountain
divide.
Sitka spruce From Kodiak Usually found Encompasss Retraction of High levels
Island south growing on wide range range, of
to N. CA. well-drained of precip especially persistence
8 Generally acidic soils. and south of BC, throughout
within 20km Tolerant of temperature localized BC and AK
of coast or salt spray.2 2. Inability changes in with some
with the fog to tolerate response to expansion to
belt south of moisture changes in higher
B.C. Up to stress disturbance elevations
200km from during regimes. and latitudes.
the sea in growing Southern
B.C. and season. range
AK.1 contraction
along CA
and OR
coast, as well
as S.
Cascades.
Western Alberta and Coastal to Shade Expansion Southern hemlock BC, Canada, mid-montane tolerant. along parts of
Alaska, forests. Some elevational Coast Range
Washington, Dominant or evidence gradients experience
Idaho, found with that they especially greatest loss.
Montana, Sitka spruce grew well at along N. Higher
Oregon, and in coastal higher coastline, amounts of
California forests, elevations and through persistence
Douglas-fir in when the Prince in BC and
9 Cascades3 and climate was William Cascades.
with western warmer and Sound. Most
redcedar. drier.2 opportunity
for
expansion to
higher
elevations in
BC.
Pacific silver Western BC, Deep well- Maritime Loss of Heavy range fir Canada; SE drained soils climate with winter contraction
Alaska, W in cool, moist significant snowpack throughout
Washington coastal winter should result coastal and
and Oregon, forests, snowpack.4 in retraction southern
NW descending to Intolerant of of range in portions of
California sea level fire. low the range.
northward elevation Northward
from habitats expansion
Vancouver along and
Island. From northern expansion to
1000 m to coast.5 In its higher
treeline in southern elevations in
Oregon and range it BC.
further south. would be
Typically expected to
10 higher and increase its
wetter habitat elevational
than grand fir range with
and western other
redcedar. subalpine
Highly shade species.
tolerant.
Grand fir BC, Canada, Moist sites Areas Likely to Substantial
Washington, from 0- where continue to loss of
Idaho, 1500m; summer expand as climatic
Montana, Riparian drought and fire regimes niche
Oregon, and settings along fire are change in throughout
California streams and common interior southern
rivers in OR west of the regions. portions of
and WA. Cascade the range,
Above 1000m Crest; throughout
in CA2. relatively Cascades
Sensitive to moist and Coast
changes in habitats in range.
fire regimes. interior Extensive
regions. potential
expansion
northward.
11 Alaska West coast, Wet sites7, Limited to Retraction of Coastal and
Yellow- from the close to tree wet soils coastal southern cedar Kenai line in south, and high populations; portions of
peninsula to to sea level in elevations, restriction to range
the Klamath north. Often especially montane contracts.
Mountains of in high in the south, habitats due Distribution
Northern montane and but also at to snow pack becomes
California6 subalpine low requirements patchy
forests of the elevations throughout
Cascades. in the north. range. Little
Vulnerable expansion.
to fine-root
freezing.
Mountain BC, Canada, Found at Relatively Some Coastal and hemlock Alaska, increasing coastal, western southern
Washington, elevations with high expansion, portions of
Idaho, from AK to snowfall or but mostly range
Montana, CA.2 Upper rainfall. localized contracts.
Oregon, portion of Mean expansion in CA
California, subalpine annual temp elevation populations
and Nevada forest to of 3-4° C. upward and become
treeline. Cannot loss of lower disjunct.
Sometimes tolerate elevation Some
grows as frozen soils. populations. expansion
12 krummholz. east (to
higher
elevations)
and north.
Coast SW OR and Below 300m Foggy Retraction of Contraction redwood NW CA but coastlines1 southern throughout
within 60km occasionally range due to most of the
of the coast to 1000m. changes in range. Small
Alluvial soils. fog belt and patches of
Pure stands or some persistence
with Douglas- potential possible.
fir or Port expansion Little
Orford cedar northward. expansion
(Chamaecypa expected.
ris Extirpation
lawsoniana) 1 throughout
range
possible.
1 Thompson, R. S., Anderson, K. H., Bartlein, P. J., 1999. Atlas of Relations Between
Climatic Parameters and Distributions of Important Trees and Shrubs in North America.
USGS Professional Paper 1650 A&B. http://greenwood.cr.usgs.gov/pub/ppapers/p1650-
a/pages/conifers.html (accessed 27 June 2014).
2 The gymnosperm Database, Edited by Earle, C. J. http://www.conifers.org (accessed 27
June 2014). 13 3 Franklin, J. F. and Dyrness., C.T., 1988. Natural Vegetation of Oregon and Washington.
Corvallis, OR: Oregon State University Press.
4 Pojar, J., Mackinnon, A., 1994. Plants of the Pacific Northwest Coast. Vancouver, BC: Lone
Pine Publishing. http:// www.lonepinepublishing.com/cat/9781551055305 (accessed 27
June 2014)
5 Burns, R.M., Honkala, B.H., 1990. Silvics of North America, Vol. 1, Conifers. Washington
DC: U.S.D.A. Forest Service Agriculture Handbook 654.
http://www.na.fs.fed.us/pubs/silvics_manual/table_of_contents.shtm (accessed 27 June
2014)
6 USGS 1999. Digital representation of "Atlas of United States Trees" by Little, E. L.
http://geo-nsdi.er.usgs.gov/metadata/professional-paper/1650/metadata.faq.html (accessed
27 June 2014).
7 Peattie, D. C., 1950. A Natural History of Western Trees. New York: Bonanza.
14 TABLE S2. Shown Kappa values serve as measurement of agreement between baseline potential species distributions and future potential
distributions for all modeled species. Lower values indicate less accordance.
Species 2050s 2080s
CSIRO CCCMA HADCM3 CSIRO CCCMA HADCM3 Western redcedar 0.708 0.778 0.673 0.567 0.671 0.556 Sitka spruce 0.747 0.852 0.834 0.631 0.796 0.799 Western hemlock 0.806 0.863 0.803 0.668 0.777 0.71 Pacific silver fir 0.503 0.713 0.549 0.334 0.565 0.468 Grand fir 0.676 0.716 0.47 0.373 0.525 0.265 Alaska yellow-cedar 0.8 0.854 0.814 0.56 0.738 0.692 Mountain hemlock 0.696 0.78 0.743 0.541 0.638 0.619 Coast redwood 0.644 0.397 0.648 0.626 0.083 0.458
mean of scenario 0.698 0.744 0.692 0.538 0.599 0.571 mean of period 0.711 0.569
15
TABLE S3. AUC values for focal rainforest species based on training and test data averaged across 25 Maxent model runs. Thresholds used for
converting probability surfaces into presence/absence data are shown including values for sensitivity and specificity.
Species AUC[training] AUC[test] threshold sensitivity specificity
Western redcedar 0.85 0.85 0.35 0.88 0.95
Sitka spruce 0.90 0.90 0.20 0.88 0.93
Western hemlock 0.82 0.82 0.30 0.92 0.89
Pacific silver fir 0.89 0.88 0.43 0.88 0.96
Grand fir 0.88 0.88 0.28 0.96 0.93
Alaska yellow-cedar 0.92 0.92 0.22 0.92 0.90
Mountain hemlock 0.90 0.90 0.21 0.94 0.90
Coast redwood 0.94 0.93 0.20 0.95 0.83
16 TABLE S4. Overview of training gain values that were used as thresholds for WorldClim predictor selection for final climate envelope models,
based on preliminary model runs. Moreover, the contribution of selected predictors to final models derived from jackknife statistics is
shown. The overall rank of the two most important predictors is indicated below.
Species Gain Bio 1 Bio 2 Bio 3 Bio 4 Bio 5 Bio 6 Bio 7 Bio 8 Bio 9 Bio 10 Bio 11 Bio 12 Bio 13 Bio 14 Bio 15 Bio 16 Bio 17 Bio 18 Bio 19
[training]
Western redcedar 0.10 3.03 0.24 0.24 1.10 0.21 2.25 1.47 0.27 11.30 1.19 6.15 3.673 0.26 0.07 - 0.27 16.62 0.38 51.30
Sitka spruce 0.40 0.04 6.76 0.39 0.92 - 1.02 39.24 0.83 4.02 - 0.46 30.40 5.01 0.60 - 8.21 0.75 0.13 1.22
Western hemlock 0.15 1.70 1.19 0.30 0.97 - 0.92 0.77 0.58 0.46 0.26 3.05 41.76 0.32 0.10 - 0.82 3.20 0.48 43.14
Pacific silver fir 0.25 0.47 0.62 0.86 3.44 - 1.85 24.54 5.03 2.85 - 1.61 0.63 0.17 0.76 - 0.23 16.26 - 40.70
Grand fir 0.30 0.19 - 4.07 5.73 5.02 0.68 0.42 0.32 35.57 1.31 5.01 1.90 1.16 0.66 - 0.03 12.90 0.76 24.28
Alaska yellow-cedar 0.30 1.06 - 1.33 2.21 0.59 0.67 10.87 0.13 1.97 0.08 0.87 6.64 0.845 1.23 - 35.57 11.42 0.16 24.35
Mountain hemlock 0.25 2.81 0.98 0.55 11.52 - 2.86 1.70 0.49 6.53 4.59 2.68 5.75 1.05 0.57 0.92 0.92 0.55 0.04 55.51
Coast redwood 0.10 3.31 2.30 2.26 39.35 2.15 0.86 20.70 3.38 1.41 0.88 1.08 11.05 4.09 2.66 - 0.21 1.12 1.34 1.87
Variable belongs to the 2 most important predictors 0 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 3 0 0 3 0 0 0 2 5 0 6 overall rank 2 1
17 BIO1 - Annual Mean Temperature BIO8 - Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter BIO15 - Precipitation Seasonality
BIO2 - Mean Diurnal Range BIO9 - Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter BIO16 - Precipitation of Wettest Quarter
BIO3 - Isothermality BIO10 - Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter BIO17 - Precipitation of Driest Quarter
BIO4 - Temperature Seasonality BIO11 - Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter BIO18 - Precipitation of Warmest Quarter
BIO5 - Max Temperature of Warmest Month BIO12 - Annual Precipitation BIO19 - Precipitation of Coldest Quarter
BIO6 - Min Temperature of Coldest Month BIO13 - Precipitation of Wettest Month
BIO7 - Temperature Annual Range BIO14 - Precipitation of Driest Month
18 TABLE S5. The 50 largest protected areas within the coastal temperate rainforests.
Protected areas were derived from the Protected Area Database and Global
Forest Watch Canada. Projected future vegetation stability was derived from
MC1 dynamic vegetation models for the 2080s under scenario A2A.
Protected Area (names from the database) Area (km2) Stable Vegetation (%) Tongass National Forest Semi-remote
Recreation 9150.01 44.75
Misty Fjords National Monument Wilderness 8360.84 43.27
Glacier Bay 5638.22 44.83
Tongass National Forest Old Growth Habitat 4469.57 35.46
Olympic National Park 3703.66 70.06
Chugach Backcountry Prescription 3698.46 20.56
Kootznoowoo Wilderness 3682.39 60.67
Tongass National Forest Remote Recreation 3650.27 50.88
Huchsduwachsdu Nuyem Jees / Kitlope
Heritage Conservancy 3027.08 84.70
Tongass National Forest Land Use
Designation Ii 2615.58 17.54
Sea to Sky LRMP - Wildland No Logging
Areas 2608.14 59.79
Strathcona Park 2476.28 18.44
Stephen Mather 2341.48 35.50
Chugach National Forest Recommended
Wilderness 2239.95 36.32
Garibaldi Park 1887.15 75.53
19 Tracy Arm-Fords Terror Wilderness 1682.02 80.81
Cassiar Iskut/Stikine LRMP-No logging area 1622.41 65.45
Glacier Peak Wilderness 1579.65 74.89
Trinity Alps 1461.75 31.23
Gwaii Haanas National Park Reserve and
Haida Heritage Site 1439.84 43.38
Duu Guusd Conservancy 1356.21 66.19
South Baranof Wilderness 1213.57 41.41
Cascade-Sutslem Conservancy 1208.31 55.83
Stikine-LeConte Wilderness 1154.69 61.07
Haida Gwaii Queen Charlotte Islands
Conservancies/ILMB Vancouver Island
Service Centre 1072.76 48.74
Wrangell-Saint Elias 1069.12 29.58
Kenai Fjords 1022.24 13.40
Chugach National Forest Alaska National
Interest Lands Conservation Act 501(b)-1 989.85 52.06
Alpine Lakes Wilderness 965.73 47.91
Morice Land and Resource Management
Plan- No logging areas 917.72 58.11
Chugach National Forest Fish And Wildlife
Conservation Area 844.70 3.59
Copper River Delta Critical Habitat Area 834.06 15.98
Fiordland Conservancy 785.54 58.05
Siskiyou 727.67 76.21
20 Owikeno Conservancy 705.92 47.09
Naikoon Park 680.12 66.28
Tongass National Forest Special Interest Area 666.38 17.61
Kalmiopsis Wilderness 661.44 37.72
Golden Ears Park 616.35 35.98
Tongass National Forest Non-wilderness
Monument 612.31 12.50
Foch-Gilttoyees Park 604.98 72.19
Gitnadoiks River Park 577.46 84.05
Marble Mountain 558.83 25.55
Hunwadi/Ahnuhati-Bald Conservancy 553.36 28.18
Kachemak Bay State Wilderness Park 528.73 6.87
Ventana 510.14 38.14
Mount Rainier 496.29 5.49
Ellerslie-Roscoe Conservancy 490.24 67.71
Hakai Luxvbalis Conservancy 490.00 0.96
Mount Baker Wilderness 469.44 18.57
21