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Determination of Urban Earthquake Risk for Kırşehir, Turkey EARTH

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Determination of Urban Earthquake Risk for Kırşehir, Turkey EARTH EARTH SCIENCES RESEARCH JOURNAL Earth Sci. Res. J. Vol. 23, No. 3 (September, 2019): 237-247 GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS GEOLOGICAL Determination of Urban Earthquake Risk for Kırşehir, Turkey Ercan Işık1, Çoşkun Sağır2, Zuhal Tozlu2, Ümit Salim Ustaoğlu2 1Bitlis Eren University, Turkey 2Ministry of Environment and Urbanisation * Corresponding author: [email protected] ABSTRACT Keywords: Máximo Urban area, loss estimation, Predicting the outcomes of earthquakes before they occur is one of the fundamental components of modern disaster Kırşehir, Turkey, earthquake. management. Loss estimation analyses have an important place at the assessment stage of earthquakes and in estimation of losses that earthquakes may lead to. With these analyses, it is possible to access information that is relevant to potential damages and losses. In this paper, loss estimation analyses were carried out by using the earthquake scenario which foresaw a previous earthquake that was experienced in an around Kırşehir which is seismically active and located in the Central Anatolia Region in Turkey. The 1938 Akpınar earthquake which occurred in and around the province of Kırşehir was taken into consideration as an earthquak escenario, and loss estimation analyses were conducted for this earthquake scenario. In this paper, significant contributions will be made for preparation of an earthquake master plan and risk management plan for Kırşehir. Besides, studies on reduction of earthquake losses in the region may utilise these results. Determinación del riesgo urbano en caso de un terremoto en Kirsehir, Turquía RESUMEN Palabras clave: área urbana; estimación de La predicción de los efectos de los terremotos es uno de los componentes principales de la administración moderna de perdidas; Kirsehir; Turquía; terremotos. desastres. Los análisis de estimación de perdidas son fundamentales en la etapa de evaluación y en la valoración de los daños que un terremoto podría ocasionar. Con estos análisis es posible evaluar la información que es relevante para los daños y las perdidas potenciales. En este artículo, los análisis de estimación de perdidas se realizaron en el escenario de Record un terremoto previo en el área de Kirsehir, que es sismicamente activa y se localiza en la Región Central de Anatolia, Manuscript received: 15/05/2018 en Turquía. El terremoto de Akpinar, en 1938, que ocurrió la zona de estudio, se consideró como el escenario del Accepted for publication: 29/03/2019 terremoto, y los análisis de estimación de perdidas se realizaron con base a este escenario. Con este estudio, se hace contribuciones significativas para la preparación de un plan maestro de terremotos y un plan de manejo del riesgo para Kirsehir. También los estudios de reducción de perdidas en la región podrían utilizar estos resultados. How to cite item Isik, E. Sagir, C., Tozlu, Z., & Ustaoglu, U. S. (2019). Determination of Urban Earthquake Risk for Kırşehir, Turkey. Earth Sciences Research Journal, 23(3), 237-247. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v23n3.60255 ISSN 1794-6190 e-ISSN 2339-3459 https://doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v23n3.60255 238 Ercan Işık, Çoşkun Sağır, Zuhal Tozlu, Ümit Salim Ustaoğlu Introduction be used as a basis for evaluating losses, namely the earthquake scenario. The second component entails the analysis of the vulnerability of buildings and The destructive earthquakes which have occurred in the world and in other facilities to earthquake damage and the losses that may result out of this Turkey especially in recent years and large-scale losses of life and property damage (FEMA-177, 1989). as a result these earthquakes have necessitated studies to be carried out and In order to prepare for a possible earthquake in the best way, it is required precautions to be taken in relevance to earthquakes as an agenda. Despite the to estimate which regions the earthquake will affect, which type of buildings it catastrophic seismic events of the past, the loss estimation and seismic risk will affect at the utmost extent and what the earthquake will result in beforehand. assessment studies regarding Turkey generally focused on the north-western Loss estimation analyses have a significant place at the assessment stage of part of the country because of the higher concentration of population (Bommer earthquakes and estimation of losses that earthquakes may lead to. Studies on et al., 2002; Strasser et al., 2008; Bal et al., 2008; Erdik et al., 2003; Erdik various scientific models have had the aim of determining the performance that and Durukal, 2008; Ansal et al., 2009). This is rather understandable due to a dwelling unit will show in the case of a possible earthquake, structural damage the high population density and economical activities; however, findings from the status and losses of life, injuries and losses of property depending on these earthquakes that occur in other parts of the country with relatively less impact (Crowley and Bommer, 2006; Bal et al., 2007; Bal et al., 2008a; Center M.A.E, are still significant in terms of both the hazard and vulnerability points of view. 2006; Zülfikar et al., 2017; Bommer et al., 2002; Molina et al., 2010; Erdik et The fairly frequent mid- to large-magnitude tremors that strike the region al., 2010; Hancılar et al., 2010; ELER, 2010; Zamora-Hernández et al., 2013). provide useful insights for i) the characteristics of the earthquakes and ii) the One of these studies was on the software named ELER, which is a research taxonomy and seismic response of the buildings in the region. project covering the physical, social and economic outcomes of earthquakes The potential damage of an earthquake will be directly influenced by on the community within the scope of the European Union’s the Network of the magnitude of it, buildings where proper safety measures are not taken and Research Infrastructures for European Seismology (NERIES) Project, and it structures that were not built in compliance with the requirements stated in was developed by Boğaziçi University Department of Earthquake Engineering the regulations. It is not possible to prevent earthquakes or forewarn with the (Demircioğlu et al., 2009). present technology. However, it is possible to take precautions reduce losses It is not possible to prevent earthquakes or forewarn with the existing in the case of an earthquake. In determination of these precautions to be taken, technology. However, it is possible to take precautions to decrease losses earthquake scenarios have a significant place. The objective in earthquake created by earthquakes. In determination of these precautions to be taken, scenarios is to numerically estimate the damage which will be created by an earthquake scenarios havea significant place (Işık, 2016). The magnitude earthquake estimated for any region. Minimisation of losses may be achieved of an earthquake that may occur in the future is aimed to be determined by estimating losses of life and property and taking necessary precautions. This by seismic hazard studies, and the extent to which settlement areas will be is one of the basic elements of modern disaster management approaches (Işık, affected from a possible earthquake is attempted to be determined with 2010; Işık et al., 2017; Lednická et al., 2006). earthquake scenarios (Özmen and Can, 2016). The possibility of occurrence When an earthquake scenario is created to make these calculations for a of a ground motion caused by an earthquake which may lead to damage and region; it is aimed to determine the damage which may occur in the buildings loss of life in a specific area and specific time period is defined as earthquake in the relevant region. Based on this, social and economic losses may also be hazard. Earthquake risk may be defined as the possibility of damage and loss calculated. of property and life due to an earthquake (Eyidoğan, 2003; Özmen and Can, It is required to get ready for earthquakes which are expected to occur and 2016; Işık and Kutanis, 2015). calculate the areas and buildings which are foreseen to be affected by potential Earthquakes may lead to very significant destructionin all types of social disasters, as well as economic losses. The most significant factor required for settlements and economic structures, particularly human life. The damage earthquake damage estimation is software which may apply the scenarios levels which occur immediately after anearthquake are expressed with the covering the whole region and conduct risk analyses based on these scenarios. loss of life and injuries. The most noticeable effect of an earthquake is the There are various types of software developed for such analyses. In this paper, the destruction of the environment which has completed its formation process. Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER) software was used, and damage An earthquake may lead to damages in all structures. From time to time, it determination analyses were carried out for the province of Kırşehir in Turkey. may lead such structures to lose all their functions. These damages will ruin Kırşehir was selected as a pilot province so that it could pose as an example for the economic structures of a region. Calculation of losses that occur depending other provinces within the scope of the “Research and Development project of on earthquakes in settlement areas that are under the danger of an earthquake Automation System Based Geography Information System at which Data is named as the “loss estimation models”. In loss estimation models, the of Local Authorities for Determination of Urban Transformation Areas and objective is to calculate the losses which may occur in any region depending Creation of Scenario Disasters.” Only the province of Kırşehir was considered on the damage an earthquake will create. Loss estimation models are defined within the scope of this project. This research that was conducted for Kırşehir as the most significant tool that is required for risk mitigation. Loss estimation may be applicable for other residential areas. Kırşehir was selected not only models may access key information concerning potential damages and losses because of its geometric location but also due to its seismic characteristics.
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