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Comparison of Health and Performance Risk for Accelerated Mars Mission Scenarios NASA/TM-20210009779 Comparison of Health and Performance Risk for Accelerated Mars Mission Scenarios Erik Antonsen MD, PhD Baylor College of Medicine NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX Mary Van Baalen, PhD; NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX Integrated Medical Model Team Space Radiation Analysis Group Binaifer Kadwa, MS Lori Chappell, MS NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX KBR NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX Lynn Boley, RN, MS KBR Edward Semones, MS NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX John Arellano, PhD Space Radiation Element MEI Technologies NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX S. Robin Elgart, PhD University of Houston Eric Kerstman, MD NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX University of Texas Medical Branch NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX National Aeronautics and Space Administration Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center Houston, Texas 77058 February 2021 NASA STI Program…in Profile Since its founding, NASA has been dedicated to the CONFERENCE PUBLICATION. advancement of aeronautics and space science. The Collected papers from scientific and NASA scientific and technical information (STI) technical conferences, symposia, seminars program plays a key part in helping NASA or other meetings sponsored or co- maintain this important role. sponsored by NASA. The NASA STI program operates under the auspices of the Agency Chief Information Officer. SPECIAL PUBLICATION. Scientific, It collects, organizes, provides for archiving, and technical, or historical information from disseminates NASA’s STI. The NASA STI NASA programs, projects, and missions, program provides access to the NTRS Registered often concerned with subjects having and its public interface, the NASA Technical substantial public interest. Reports Server, thus providing one of the largest collections of aeronautical and space science STI in TECHNICAL TRANSLATION. the world. Results are published in both non-NASA English-language translations of foreign channels and by NASA in the NASA STI Report scientific and technical material pertinent Series, which includes the following report types: to NASA’s mission. Specialized services also include organizing and TECHNICAL PUBLICATION. Reports of publishing research results, distributing specialized completed research or a major significant research announcements and feeds, providing phase of research that present the results of information desk and personal search support, and NASA Programs and include extensive enabling data exchange services. data or theoretical analysis. Includes For more information about the NASA STI compilations of significant scientific and program, see the following: technical data and information deemed to be of continuing reference value. NASA Access the NASA STI program home page counter-part of peer-reviewed formal at http://www.sti.nasa.gov professional papers but has less stringent limitations on manuscript length and extent E-mail your question to [email protected] of graphic presentations. Phone the NASA STI Information Desk TECHNICAL MEMORANDUM. at757-864-9658 Scientific and technical findings that are preliminary or of specialized interest, e.g., Write to: quick release reports, working papers, and NASA STI Information Desk bibliographies that contain minimal Mail Stop 148 annotation. Does not contain extensive NASA Langley Research Center analysis. Hampton, VA 23681-2199 CONTRACTOR REPORT. Scientific and technical findings by NASA-sponsored contractors and grantees. NASA/TM-20210009779 Comparison of Health and Performance Risk for Accelerated Mars Mission Scenarios Erik Antonsen MD, PhD Baylor College of Medicine NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX Mary Van Baalen, PhD; NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX Integrated Medical Model Team Space Radiation Analysis Group Binaifer Kadwa, MS Lori Chappell, MS NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX KBR NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX Lynn Boley, RN, MS;, Houston TX KBR Edward Semones, MS NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX John Arellano, PhD Space Radiation Element MEI Technologies NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX S. Robin Elgart, PhD University of Houston Eric Kerstman, MD NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX University of Texas Medical Branch NASA Johnson Space Center, Houston, TX National Aeronautics and Space Administration Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center Houston, Texas 77058 February 2021 Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge funding and support from the Crew Health and Safety Program, the Human Research Program, and the Human Health and Performance Directorate at Johnson Space Center. Available from: NASA STI Program National Technical Information Service Mail Stop 148 5285 Port Royal Road NASA Langley Research Center Springfield, VA 22161 Hampton, VA 23681-2199 This report is also available in electronic form at http://www.sti.nasa.gov/ and http://ntrs.nasa.gov Table of Contents 1 Background ................................................................................................................ 1 2 Main Results .............................................................................................................. 2 3 Integrated Medical Model .......................................................................................... 2 3.1 Background ............................................................................................................. 2 4 Key Results ................................................................................................................ 3 4.1.1 Total Medical Events ............................................................................................... 3 4.1.2 Crew Health Index ................................................................................................... 4 4.2 Integrated Medical Model Summary ...................................................................... 6 5 Space Radiation Model ............................................................................................... 7 5.1 Background ............................................................................................................. 7 5.2 Key Results .............................................................................................................. 7 6 References ................................................................................................................. 9 7 Appendix 1 ................................................................................................................ 10 7.1 Crew Characteristics ............................................................................................. 10 7.2 Model Modifications ............................................................................................. 10 7.3 Modeling Approach .............................................................................................. 11 7.4 List of Lockdown 61 Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) Changes .... 12 7.5 Medical Evacuation and Loss of Crew Life Driving Conditions ............................. 12 7.6 Driving Conditions for Loss of Crew Life ............................................................... 17 8 Appendix 2 ................................................................................................................ 20 9 Acronyms and Abbreviations ..................................................................................... 22 iii Table of Figures Figure 1: Average Total Medical Events predicted by IMM for AMM (426-day) and SMM (923-day) missions. .............................................................................................................................................. 4 Figure 2: Average CHI is a function of quality time lost and mission duration and is a proxy value for expected performance range for crews. ....................................................................................... 4 Figure 3: Left: Probability of Evacuation criteria met expressed by types of medical conditions and Right: Probability of LOCL criteria met expressed by types of medical conditions. ........................... 6 Figure 4: Visualization of the estimated REID calculated at the Mean and showing the associated 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Current NASA standards protect to less than 3% excess risk at the upper 95% CI. Any extension of the CIs beyond the red line exceeds current NASA standards. ...... 8 Table of Tables Table 1: Probability of reaching EVAC criteria or LOCL based on medical conditions modeling for an AMM and SMM. .................................................................................................................................. 5 Table 2: Crew characteristics for both missions. .............................................................................. 10 Table 3: Driving conditions for reaching consideration of evacuation criteria for an AMM (426 days with 30 days of EVA) with the total number of times that condition drove an EVAC event per 100,000 simulations. ‘Per Trial’ and ‘1 in X trials’ show the odds for a single mission. ................... 12 Table 4: Driving conditions for reaching consideration of evacuation criteria for SMM (923 days with 401 days of EVA) with the total number of times that condition drove an EVAC event per 100,000 simulations. ‘Per Trial’ and ‘1 in X trials’ show the odds for a single mission. Highlighted Conditions are those linked to EVA .................................................................................................
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