Beyond the Limits of Traditional Science: Bioregional Assessments and Natural Resource Management

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Beyond the Limits of Traditional Science: Bioregional Assessments and Natural Resource Management PNW Pacific Northwest INSIDE Research Station Taking Stock of Large Assessments . 2 The Genesis of a New Tool . 3 Sharpening a New Tool. 4 Are You Sure of Your Conclusions? . 4 A New Kind of Science . 4 Lessons After the Fact . 5 FINDINGS issue twenty-four / may 2000 “Science affects the way we think together.” Lewis Thomas BEYOND THE LIMITS OF TRADITIONAL SCIENCE: BIOREGIONAL ASSESSMENTS AND NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT IN SUMMARY Bioregional assessments to deal with critical, even crisis, natural resource issues have emerged as important meeting grounds of science, manage- ment, and policy across the United States. They are placing heavy demands on science, scientists, and science organizations to compile, Managers, scientists, and stakeholders continue to work more closely together to define ➢ how to better integrate scientific, technical, and social concerns into land management synthesize, and produce data, without policy. crossing the line from policy recom- “We are now entering a new resource decisions have been made over mendations to actual decisionmaking. the past 15 years, and not just in the Pacific era, in which science and Northwest. There is no blueprint for their conduct, scientists—along with managers Traditional use versus potential develop- and stakeholders—will be but lessons from past experience can ment in New England’s north woods, intimately and continuously consumptive water use versus ecological help stakeholders—Forest Service involved with natural resource values in Florida’s Everglades, old-growth policy development…However, forest habitat versus logging in the Pacific scientists, Research Stations, land Northwest, land development versus we are still very much at the species conservation in southern California. managers, policymakers, and the stage of learning how the There are many more. public—to proceed productively in scientific, the technical, and “All too often, we find that these region- the social can be integrated.” level crises have developed in areas where future assessments. Jerry Franklin, 1999 people have started to stew in their own juices in terms of natural resource use,” ourt ordered and crisis driven. says Fred Swanson. “There’s even a plausi- A person could be forgiven for ble theory that some systems have been C believing that’s how natural managed in ways that have led almost inevitably to ecological and social crisis.” Whatever the reason, the bioregional assessment is emerging nationwide as a KEY FINDINGS first-step approach for addressing such crises. These large-scale assessments are • Bioregional assessments are playing critical, nontraditional roles in addressing efforts to build knowledge about a issues of compatibility of natural resource uses.They are commonly born in region—understanding the social and natural resource crises, which adds greatly to the challenge of conducting the ecological condition, and possible futures, of assessments and then developing socially acceptable management plans by a region—before decisionmaking and using the assessment information. management action. • No standard blueprint exists for conduct of bioregional assessments, but Although these assessments differ widely in devices are available to help structure their various stages, such as a charter, approach and style, there is a common broad peer review, and subsequent science consistency checks. theme: a region that recognizes the latest brush fire as the sign of a far larger prob- • Scientists are not well prepared by traditional science training to participate in lem. Typically, the quest then begins for the broad scales and social contexts of bioregional assessments.This has impli- “science-based” solutions. cations for how research organizations accomplish assessments. “Bioregional assessments are not new: Lewis and Clark could be said to have leaders are putting on the U.S. scientific “Bioregional assessments have become an done one of the first in the Western establishment to focus more heavily on important medium for scientists responding United States. But what is new in recent problems of immediate social and to this charge.” years is the pressure Congress and science economic relevance,” Swanson says. TAKING STOCK OF LARGE ASSESSMENTS ioregional assessments attempt to critiquing seven assessments (Johnson and build information with relevant others). Purpose of detail about the ecology and sociol- PNW Science Findings B The assessments were already raising tough ogy of a region. The scientists involved To provide scientific information questions. What is the appropriate role of neither make decisions nor advocate to people who make and influence scientists in such projects? For which policy particular actions. Rather, says Swanson, decisions about managing land. questions is science most likely to have they provide information, and in later useful answers? And from the cynics, is PNW Science Findings is published stages, may assess whether all the science the bioregional assessment one more monthly by: was considered and interpreted correctly, government-funded, technology-driven Pacific Northwest Research Station and whether the risks were revealed. research exercise, with no useful outcome? USDA Forest Service Swanson, a research geologist with the P.O. Box 3890 “In the recent past, bioregional science Pacific Northwest (PNW) Research Station Portland, Oregon 97208 studies have addressed wide-ranging topics (503) 808-2137 in Corvallis, Oregon, participated in the such as the history of land use, patterns of Forest Ecosystem Management Assessment Sherri Richardson Dodge, Editor nitrogen cycling in response to atmospheric Team (FEMAT) assessment in 1993 from [email protected] pollution, and ecological effects of urbaniza- which the Northwest Forest Plan resulted tion,” says Greene. “Bioregional assess- Carlyn Mitas, Design & layout the next year. ments, however, have a distinctive emphasis [email protected] Because bioregional assessments were on interactions between development and clearly expanding their influence, Swanson, conservation, including biological and water scientific institutions themselves, leery of PNW Research Station Forest ecologist resources. Thus, they require a greater the potential influences on their work. As Sarah Greene, Oregon State University breadth of understanding, as well as understanding of forest and range manage- professor of forest management Norman attempting to meet more immediate infor- ment has broadened and taken ecosystem Johnson, and science writer Peg Herring mation needs for society.” function as a fundamental component, convened a conference of people experi- For much of the early part of the century, however, recognition of the increasing enced with bioregional assessments in 1995 the line between management and science complexity and scope of the environmental to discover what could be learned from has been distinct. Direct involvement of problems to be tackled has pushed the regional experience with this new approach scientists with policymaking is strongly research and management worlds ever around the country. This resulted in the discouraged, both by managers and by closer. publication of a book summarizing and Check out our web site at: http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw United States Forest Service Department of Agriculture 2 Today scientists frequently find themselves on the front lines of natural resource issues. LAND MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS They can be attacked for not producing adequate data to support policy decisions • Managers participating in bioregional assessments can look at other cases and at the same time as they are pushed harder experience from around the United States to see how their counterparts to produce results on the deadlines achieved success or failure, in order to guide their own efforts toward maxi- imposed by policymakers. Sometimes, they mum success. are not brought in at the start of an assess- • Social needs for information and the demand for “science-based” management ment to help design its progress. Other are here to stay.Thus the difficult challenge of integrating information from times they are forced—along with different scientific disciplines, particularly the ecological and social, and espe- managers and stakeholders—to work with- cially over large areas, requires ongoing consideration and commitment from out a clear charter or set of objectives. land managers. Nonetheless, the call for “science-based decisions” has become widespread.The role • Institutional arrangements and information management ought to be configured of scientists as key players in bioregional to foster continued development and learning, in land management agencies as assessments is not unusual. much as research institutions. Dealing with large-scale natural resource issues is not a one-time proposition, but one of continuous evolution. THE GENESIS OF A NEW TOOL s the extent of assessments across ➢ the country suggests, the spectrum Locations of the of motivations is broad. Most often, a A seven bioregional bioregional effort is born in a natural assessments men- resource crisis, greatly increasing the chal- tioned in Johnson lenge of conducting the assessment and and others (1999). developing socially acceptable management Even this limited plans. Clearly, the bioregional assessment is sample of bioregional not a one-of-a-kind creature. assessments reveals that they have been FEMAT started out as a time-limited effort concluded across to deal with the challenge the condition of many parts of the the northern
Recommended publications
  • A New Kind of Science; Stephen Wolfram, Wolfram Media, Inc., 2002
    A New Kind of Science; Stephen Wolfram, Wolfram Media, Inc., 2002. Almost twenty years ago, I heard Stephen Wolfram speak at a Gordon Confer- ence about cellular automata (CA) and how they can be used to model seashell patterns. He had recently made a splash with a number of important papers applying CA to a variety of physical and biological systems. His early work on CA focused on a classification of the behavior of simple one-dimensional sys- tems and he published some interesting papers suggesting that CA fall into four different classes. This was original work but from a mathematical point of view, hardly rigorous. What he was essentially claiming was that even if one adds more layers of complexity to the simple rules, one does not gain anything be- yond these four simples types of behavior (which I will describe below). After a two decade hiatus from science (during which he founded Wolfram Science, the makers of Mathematica), Wolfram has self-published his magnum opus A New Kind of Science which continues along those lines of thinking. The book itself is beautiful to look at with almost a thousand pictures, 850 pages of text and over 300 pages of detailed notes. Indeed, one might suggest that the main text is for the general public while the notes (which exceed the text in total words) are aimed at a more technical audience. The book has an associated web site complete with a glowing blurb from the publisher, quotes from the media and an interview with himself to answer questions about the book.
    [Show full text]
  • The Problem of Distributed Consensus: a Survey Stephen Wolfram*
    The Problem of Distributed Consensus: A Survey Stephen Wolfram* A survey is given of approaches to the problem of distributed consensus, focusing particularly on methods based on cellular automata and related systems. A variety of new results are given, as well as a history of the field and an extensive bibliography. Distributed consensus is of current relevance in a new generation of blockchain-related systems. In preparation for a conference entitled “Distributed Consensus with Cellular Automata and Related Systems” that we’re organizing with NKN (= “New Kind of Network”) I decided to explore the problem of distributed consensus using methods from A New Kind of Science (yes, NKN “rhymes” with NKS) as well as from the Wolfram Physics Project. A Simple Example Consider a collection of “nodes”, each one of two possible colors. We want to determine the majority or “consensus” color of the nodes, i.e. which color is the more common among the nodes. A version of this document with immediately executable code is available at writings.stephenwolfram.com/2021/05/the-problem-of-distributed-consensus Originally published May 17, 2021 *Email: [email protected] 2 | Stephen Wolfram One obvious method to find this “majority” color is just sequentially to visit each node, and tally up all the colors. But it’s potentially much more efficient if we can use a distributed algorithm, where we’re running computations in parallel across the various nodes. One possible algorithm works as follows. First connect each node to some number of neighbors. For now, we’ll just pick the neighbors according to the spatial layout of the nodes: The algorithm works in a sequence of steps, at each step updating the color of each node to be whatever the “majority color” of its neighbors is.
    [Show full text]
  • A New Kind of Science: a 15-Year View
    A New Kind of Science: A 15-Year View Stephen Wolfram Founder and CEO Wolfram Research, Inc. [email protected] Starting now, in celebration of its 15th anniversary, A New Kind of Science will be freely available in its entirety, with high-resolution images, on the web or for download. It’s now 15 years since I published my book A New Kind of Science — more than 25 since I started writing it, and more than 35 since I started working towards it. But with every passing year I feel I under- stand more about what the book is really about—and why it’s impor- tant. I wrote the book, as its title suggests, to contribute to the progress of science. But as the years have gone by, I’ve realized that the core of what’s in the book actually goes far beyond science—into many areas that will be increasingly important in defining our whole future. So, viewed from a distance of 15 years, what is the book really about? At its core, it’s about something profoundly abstract: the the- ory of all possible theories, or the universe of all possible universes. But for me one of the achievements of the book is the realization that one can explore such fundamental things concretely—by doing actual experiments in the computational universe of possible programs. And https://doi.org/10.25088/ComplexSystems.26.3.197 198 S. Wolfram in the end the book is full of what might at first seem like quite alien pictures made just by running very simple such programs.
    [Show full text]
  • Emergence and Evolution of Meaning: the General Definition of Information (GDI) Revisiting Program—Part I: the Progressive Perspective: Top-Down
    Information 2012, 3, 472-503; doi:10.3390/info3030472 OPEN ACCESS information ISSN 2078-2489 www.mdpi.com/journal/information Article Emergence and Evolution of Meaning: The General Definition of Information (GDI) Revisiting Program—Part I: The Progressive Perspective: Top-Down Rainer E. Zimmermann 1 and José M. Díaz Nafría 2,* 1 Fakultaet Studium Generale, Hochschule Muenchen, Dachauerstr. 100a, Munich, 80336, Germany; E-Mail: [email protected] 2 E.T.S. de Ingenierías, Universidad de León, Campus de Vegazana s/n, León, 24071, Spain * Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: [email protected]. Received: 15 June 2012; in revised form: 28 July 2012 / Accepted: 31 July 2012 / Published: 19 September 2012 Abstract: In this first part of the paper, the category of meaning is traced starting from the origin of the Universe itself as well as its very grounding in pre-geometry (the second part deals with an appropriate bottom-up approach). In contrast to many former approaches in the theories of information and also in biosemiotics, we will show that the forms of meaning emerge simultaneously (alongside) with information and energy. Hence, information can be visualized as being always meaningful (in a sense to be explicated) rather than visualizing meaning as a later specification of information within social systems only. This perspective taken has two immediate consequences: (1) We follow the GDI as defined by Floridi, though we modify it somehow as to the aspect of truthfulness. (2) We can conceptually solve Capurro’s trilemma. Hence, what we actually do is to follow the strict (i.e., optimistic) line of UTI in the sense of Hofkirchner’s.
    [Show full text]
  • The Emergence of Complexity
    The Emergence of Complexity Jochen Fromm Bibliografische Information Der Deutschen Bibliothek Die Deutsche Bibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet über http://dnb.ddb.de abrufbar ISBN 3-89958-069-9 © 2004, kassel university press GmbH, Kassel www.upress.uni-kassel.de Umschlaggestaltung: Bettina Brand Grafikdesign, München Druck und Verarbeitung: Unidruckerei der Universität Kassel Printed in Germany Preface The main topic of this book is the emergence of complexity - how complexity suddenly appears and emerges in complex systems: from ancient cultures to modern states, from the earliest primitive eukaryotic organisms to conscious human beings, and from natural ecosystems to cultural organizations. Because life is the major source of complexity on Earth, and the develop- ment of life is described by the theory of evolution, every convincing theory about the origin of complexity must be compatible to Darwin’s theory of evolution. Evolution by natural selection is without a doubt one of the most fundamental and important scientific principles. It can only be extended. Not yet well explained are for example sudden revolutions, sometimes the process of evolution is interspersed with short revolutions. This book tries to examine the origin of these sudden (r)evolutions. Evolution is not constrained to biology. It is the basic principle behind the emergence of nearly all complex systems, including science itself. Whereas the elementary actors and fundamental agents are different in each system, the emerging properties and phenomena are often similar. Thus in an in- terdisciplinary text like this it is inevitable and indispensable to cover a wide range of subjects, from psychology to sociology, physics to geology, and molecular biology to paleontology.
    [Show full text]
  • Irreducibility and Computational Equivalence
    Hector Zenil (Ed.) Irreducibility and Computational Equivalence 10 Years After Wolfram's A New Kind of Science ~ Springer --------------"--------- Table of Contents Foreword G. Chaitin . .. VII Preface......... .................................... ....... ..... IX I Mechanisms in Programs and Nature 1. Cellular Automata: Models of the Physical World H erberl W. Franke . 3 2. On the Necessity of Complexity Joost J. Joosten ............................................... 11 3. A Lyapunov View on the Stability of Two-State Cellular Automata Jan M. Baetens, Bernard De Baets ............................. 25 II Systems Based on Numbers and Simple Programs 4. Cellular Automata and Hyperbolic Spaces Maurice Margenstern . 37 5. Symmetry and Complexity of Cellular Automata: Towards an Analytical Theory of Dynamical System Klaus Mainzer, Carl von Linde-Akademie . 47 6. A New Kind of Science: Ten Years Later David H. Bailey ............................................... 67 III Mechanisms in Biology, Social Systems and Technology 7. More Complex Complexity: Exploring the Nature of Computational Irreducibility across Physical, Biological, and Human Social Systems Brian Beckage, Stuart Kauffman, Louis J. Gross, Asim Zia, Christopher K oliba . 79 8. A New Kind of Finance Philip Z. Maymin . 89 XIV Table of Contents 9. The Relevance of Computation Irreducibility as Computation Universality in Economics K. Vela Velupillai ............................................ " 101 10. Computational Technosphere and Cellular Engineering Mark Burgin .................................................. 113 IV Fundamental P~sics 11. The Principle of a Finite Density of Information Pablo Arrighi, Gilles Dowek . .. 127 12. Do Particles Evolve? Tommaso Bolognesi .......................................... " 135 13. Artificial Cosmogenesis: A New Kind of Cosmology Clement Vidal. .. 157 V The Behavior of Systems and the Notion of Computation 14. An Incompleteness Theorem for the Natural World Rudy Rucker . .. 185 15.
    [Show full text]
  • CELLULAR AUTOMATA and APPLICATIONS 1. Introduction This
    CELLULAR AUTOMATA AND APPLICATIONS GAVIN ANDREWS 1. Introduction This paper is a study of cellular automata as computational programs and their remarkable ability to create complex behavior from simple rules. We examine a number of these simple programs in order to draw conclusions about the nature of complexity seen in the world and discuss the potential of using such programs for the purposes of modeling. The information presented within is in large part the work of mathematician Stephen Wolfram, as presented in his book A New Kind of Science[1]. Section 2 begins by introducing one-dimensional cellular automata and the four classifications of behavior that they exhibit. In sections 3 and 4 the concept of computational universality discovered by Alan Turing in the original Turing machine is introduced and shown to be present in various cellular automata that demonstrate Class IV behav- ior. The idea of computational complexity as it pertains to universality and its implications for modern science are then examined. In section 1 2 GAVIN ANDREWS 5 we discuss the challenges and advantages of modeling with cellular automata, and give several examples of current models. 2. Cellular Automata and Classifications of Complexity The one-dimensional cellular automaton exists on an infinite hori- zontal array of cells. For the purposes of this section we will look at the one-dimensional cellular automata (c.a.) with square cells that are limited to only two possible states per cell: white and black. The c.a.'s rules determine how the infinite arrangement of black and white cells will be updated from time step to time step.
    [Show full text]
  • Quick Takes on Some Ideas and Discoveries in a New Kind of Science
    Quick takes on some ideas and discoveries in A New Kind of Science Mathematical equations do not capture many of nature’s most essential mechanisms For more than three centuries, mathematical equations and methods such as calculus have been taken as the foundation for the exact sciences. There have been many profound successes, but a great many important and obvious phenomena in nature remain unexplained—especially ones where more complex forms or behavior are observed. A New Kind of Science builds a framework that shows why equations have had limitations, and how by going beyond them many new and essential mechanisms in nature can be captured. Thinking in terms of programs rather than equations opens up a new kind of science Mathematical equations correspond to particular kinds of rules. Computer programs can embody far more general rules. A New Kind of Science describes a vast array of remarkable new discoveries made by thinking in terms of programs—and how these discoveries force a rethinking of the foundations of many existing areas of science. Even extremely simple programs can produce behavior of immense complexity Everyday experience tends to make one think that it is difficult to get complex behavior, and that to do so requires complicated underlying rules. A crucial discovery in A New Kind of Science is that among programs this is not true—and that even some of the very simplest possible programs can produce behavior that in a fundamental sense is as complex as anything in our universe. There have been hints of related phenomena for a very long time, but without the conceptual framework of A New Kind of Science they have been largely ignored or misunderstood.
    [Show full text]
  • Reductionism and the Universal Calculus
    Reductionism and the Universal Calculus Gopal P. Sarma∗1 1School of Medicine, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA Abstract In the seminal essay, \On the unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics in the physical sciences," physicist Eugene Wigner poses a fundamental philosophical question concerning the relationship between a physical system and our capacity to model its behavior with the symbolic language of mathematics. In this essay, I examine an ambitious 16th and 17th-century intellectual agenda from the perspective of Wigner's question, namely, what historian Paolo Rossi calls \the quest to create a universal language." While many elite thinkers pursued related ideas, the most inspiring and forceful was Gottfried Leibniz's effort to create a \universal calculus," a pictorial language which would transparently represent the entirety of human knowledge, as well as an associated symbolic calculus with which to model the behavior of physical systems and derive new truths. I suggest that a deeper understanding of why the efforts of Leibniz and others failed could shed light on Wigner's original question. I argue that the notion of reductionism is crucial to characterizing the failure of Leibniz's agenda, but that a decisive argument for the why the promises of this effort did not materialize is still lacking. 1 Introduction By any standard, Leibniz's effort to create a \universal calculus" should be considered one of the most ambitious intellectual agendas ever conceived. Building on his previous successes in developing the infinites- imal calculus, Leibniz aimed to extend the notion of a symbolic calculus to all domains of human thought, from law, to medicine, to biology, to theology.
    [Show full text]
  • Algorithmic Design: Pasts and Futures 199
    ALGORITHMIC DESIGN: PASTS AND FUTURES 199 Algorithmic Design: Pasts and Futures JASON VOLLEN University of Arizona Algorithmic Design technique; it is a matter of the implementation of its understanding.' Few would argue that there are profound ramifications for the discipline of architecture as the field continues to digitize. Finding an ethic within the digital process is both timely and necessary if there is to be a meaningful dialogue regarding the new natures of these emergent methodologies. In order to examine the relationship between implement and implementer, we must seek the roots of the underlying infrastructure in order to articulate the possible futures of digital design processes. A quarter century into the information age we are compelled as a discipline to enter this dialogue with the question of technologia as program; information as both a process and program for spatial, architectural solutions may be proposed as a viable source for meaningful work and form generation. Techne and Episteme Aristotelian thought suggests there is a difference between technique and technology: Technique, techne, is the momentary mastery of a precise action, the craft. Technology implies the understanding of craft, its underlying science, the episteme. The relationship is more complex; one needs to know to make, and one can have knowledge of a subiect without the ability to make within the discipline. Further, to consider the changes in design methodology as simply a Figure 1. a, Bifurcating modular ceiling vault detail matter of changes in technique is to deny the from the Palazio de Nazarres. b, c, Patterned tiles historical links between the techne and the located on lower wall.
    [Show full text]
  • A New Kind of Science: Ten Years Later
    A New Kind of Science: Ten Years Later David H. Bailey∗ May 17, 2012 It has been ten years since Stephen Wolfram published his magnum opus A New Kind of Science [14]. It is worth re-examining the book and its impact in the field. 1 Highlights of ANKS The present author personally read the book with great interest when it was first published. Of particular interest then and now are the many illustrations, par- ticularly those of the complex patterns generated by certain cellular automata systems, such as rule 30 and rule 110, as contrasted with the very regular pat- terns produced by other rules. In this regard, graphical analyses of these cellular automata rules join a select group of modern mathematical phenomena (includ- ing, for example, studies of the Mandlebrot set, chaotic iterations and certain topological manifolds) that have been studied graphically as well as analytically. In looking again at ANKS, the present author is struck today, as in 2002, with the many interesting items in the endnote section, which occupies 350 pages of two-column, small-font text. In some respects, the endnotes of ANKS constitute an encyclopedia of sorts, covering, in concise yet highly readable form, historical background, mathematical foundations and scientific connections of a wide variety of topics related to modern-day computing. Much of this material remains as cogent and interesting today as when it was written over ten years ago. Some of the particularly interesting endnote passages are the following: 1. Wolfram's entry on \History of experimental mathematics" (pg. 899) con- tains a number of interesting insights on the practice of using computers as exploratory tools in mathematics.
    [Show full text]
  • Equation-Free Modeling Unravels the Behavior of Complex Ecological Systems Donald L
    COMMENTARY Equation-free modeling unravels the behavior of complex ecological systems Donald L. DeAngelisa,b,1 and Simeon Yurekb aSoutheast Ecological Science Center, US Geological Survey, Gainesville, FL 32653; and bBiology Department, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33124 Ye et al. (1) address a critical problem con- models in ecology have not passed the crite- fronting the management of natural ecosys- rion of predictive ability (3, 4). There are tems: How can we make forecasts of possible many reasons for this, one being the highly future changes in populations to help guide nonlinear nature of ecological interactions. management actions? This problem is espe- This has led to arguments over whether the cially acute for marine and anadromous fisher- “right” models are being used, but also to ies, where the large interannual fluctuations of broad opinion that, unlike in physics, there populations, arising from complex nonlinear are no right models to describe the dynamics interactions among species and with varying of ecological systems, and that the best that environmental factors, have defied prediction canbedoneistofindmodelsthatareatleast over even short time scales. The empirical good approximations for the phenomena dynamic modeling (EDM) described in Ye they are trying to describe. It is common et al.’s report, the latest in a series of papers in introductions of ecological modeling to by Sugihara and his colleagues, offers a find descriptions of the “modeling cycle,” in promising quantitative approach to building which a question is formulated, hypotheses models using time series to successfully pro- are made, a model structure is chosen in ject dynamics into the future.
    [Show full text]