PNW Pacific Northwest INSIDE Research Station Taking Stock of Large Assessments ...... 2 The Genesis of a New Tool ...... 3 Sharpening a New Tool...... 4 Are You Sure of Your Conclusions? ...... 4 A New Kind of Science ...... 4 Lessons After the Fact ...... 5 FINDINGS issue twenty-four / may 2000

“Science affects the way we think together.” Lewis Thomas

BEYOND THE LIMITS OF TRADITIONAL SCIENCE: BIOREGIONAL ASSESSMENTS AND NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

IN SUMMARY

Bioregional assessments to deal with

critical, even crisis, natural resource

issues have emerged as important

meeting grounds of science, manage-

ment, and policy across the United

States. They are placing heavy

demands on science, scientists, and

science organizations to compile, Managers, scientists, and stakeholders continue to work more closely together to define ➢ how to better integrate scientific, technical, and social concerns into land management synthesize, and produce data, without policy. crossing the line from policy recom-

“We are now entering a new resource decisions have been made over mendations to actual decisionmaking. the past 15 years, and not just in the Pacific era, in which science and Northwest. There is no blueprint for their conduct, scientists—along with managers Traditional use versus potential develop- and stakeholders—will be but lessons from past experience can ment in New England’s north woods, intimately and continuously consumptive water use versus ecological help stakeholders—Forest Service involved with natural resource values in Florida’s Everglades, old-growth policy development…However, forest habitat versus logging in the Pacific scientists, Research Stations, land Northwest, land development versus we are still very much at the species conservation in southern California. managers, policymakers, and the stage of learning how the There are many more. public—to proceed productively in scientific, the technical, and “All too often, we find that these region- the social can be integrated.” level crises have developed in areas where future assessments. Jerry Franklin, 1999 people have started to stew in their own juices in terms of natural resource use,” ourt ordered and crisis driven. says Fred Swanson. “There’s even a plausi- A person could be forgiven for ble theory that some systems have been C believing that’s how natural managed in ways that have led almost inevitably to ecological and social crisis.” Whatever the reason, the bioregional assessment is emerging nationwide as a KEY FINDINGS first-step approach for addressing such crises. These large-scale assessments are • Bioregional assessments are playing critical, nontraditional roles in addressing efforts to build knowledge about a issues of compatibility of natural resource uses.They are commonly born in region—understanding the social and natural resource crises, which adds greatly to the challenge of conducting the ecological condition, and possible futures, of assessments and then developing socially acceptable management plans by a region—before decisionmaking and using the assessment information. management action. • No standard blueprint exists for conduct of bioregional assessments, but Although these assessments differ widely in devices are available to help structure their various stages, such as a charter, approach and style, there is a common broad peer review, and subsequent science consistency checks. theme: a region that recognizes the latest brush fire as the sign of a far larger prob- • Scientists are not well prepared by traditional science training to participate in lem. Typically, the quest then begins for the broad scales and social contexts of bioregional assessments.This has impli- “science-based” solutions. cations for how research organizations accomplish assessments. “Bioregional assessments are not new: Lewis and Clark could be said to have leaders are putting on the U.S. scientific “Bioregional assessments have become an done one of the first in the Western establishment to focus more heavily on important medium for scientists responding United States. But what is new in recent problems of immediate social and to this charge.” years is the pressure Congress and science economic relevance,” Swanson says.

TAKING STOCK OF LARGE ASSESSMENTS ioregional assessments attempt to critiquing seven assessments (Johnson and build information with relevant others). Purpose of detail about the ecology and sociol- PNW Science Findings B The assessments were already raising tough ogy of a region. The scientists involved To provide scientific information questions. What is the appropriate role of neither make decisions nor advocate to people who make and influence scientists in such projects? For which policy particular actions. Rather, says Swanson, decisions about managing land. questions is science most likely to have they provide information, and in later useful answers? And from the cynics, is PNW Science Findings is published stages, may assess whether all the science the bioregional assessment one more monthly by: was considered and interpreted correctly, government-funded, technology-driven Pacific Northwest Research Station and whether the risks were revealed. research exercise, with no useful outcome? USDA Forest Service Swanson, a research geologist with the P.O. Box 3890 “In the recent past, bioregional science Pacific Northwest (PNW) Research Station Portland, Oregon 97208 studies have addressed wide-ranging topics (503) 808-2137 in Corvallis, Oregon, participated in the such as the history of land use, patterns of Forest Ecosystem Management Assessment Sherri Richardson Dodge, Editor nitrogen cycling in response to atmospheric Team (FEMAT) assessment in 1993 from [email protected] pollution, and ecological effects of urbaniza- which the Northwest Forest Plan resulted tion,” says Greene. “Bioregional assess- Carlyn Mitas, Design & layout the next year. ments, however, have a distinctive emphasis [email protected] Because bioregional assessments were on interactions between development and clearly expanding their influence, Swanson, conservation, including biological and water scientific institutions themselves, leery of PNW Research Station Forest ecologist resources. Thus, they require a greater the potential influences on their work. As Sarah Greene, Oregon State University breadth of understanding, as well as understanding of forest and range manage- professor of forest management Norman attempting to meet more immediate infor- ment has broadened and taken ecosystem Johnson, and science writer Peg Herring mation needs for society.” function as a fundamental component, convened a conference of people experi- For much of the early part of the century, however, recognition of the increasing enced with bioregional assessments in 1995 the line between management and science complexity and scope of the environmental to discover what could be learned from has been distinct. Direct involvement of problems to be tackled has pushed the regional experience with this new approach scientists with policymaking is strongly research and management worlds ever around the country. This resulted in the discouraged, both by managers and by closer. publication of a book summarizing and

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http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw United States Forest Service Department of Agriculture 2 Today scientists frequently find themselves on the front lines of natural resource issues. LAND MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS They can be attacked for not producing adequate data to support policy decisions • Managers participating in bioregional assessments can look at other cases and at the same time as they are pushed harder experience from around the United States to see how their counterparts to produce results on the deadlines achieved success or failure, in order to guide their own efforts toward maxi- imposed by policymakers. Sometimes, they mum success. are not brought in at the start of an assess- • Social needs for information and the demand for “science-based” management ment to help design its progress. Other are here to stay.Thus the difficult challenge of integrating information from times they are forced—along with different scientific disciplines, particularly the ecological and social, and espe- managers and stakeholders—to work with- cially over large areas, requires ongoing consideration and commitment from out a clear charter or set of objectives. land managers. Nonetheless, the call for “science-based decisions” has become widespread.The role • Institutional arrangements and information management ought to be configured of scientists as key players in bioregional to foster continued development and learning, in land management agencies as assessments is not unusual. much as research institutions. Dealing with large-scale natural resource issues is not a one-time proposition, but one of continuous evolution.

THE GENESIS OF A NEW TOOL s the extent of assessments across ➢ the country suggests, the spectrum Locations of the of motivations is broad. Most often, a A seven bioregional bioregional effort is born in a natural assessments men- resource crisis, greatly increasing the chal- tioned in Johnson lenge of conducting the assessment and and others (1999). developing socially acceptable management Even this limited plans. Clearly, the bioregional assessment is sample of bioregional not a one-of-a-kind creature. assessments reveals that they have been FEMAT started out as a time-limited effort concluded across to deal with the challenge the condition of many parts of the the northern spotted owl was posing United States, with to Federal timber sales in the Pacific widely varying objec- Northwest, and grew into a review of tives and pressures. hundreds of species, old growth, salmon, and human community issues. In the Florida with a changing pattern of ownership completed assessment of conditions and Everglades, massive deterioration of the caused by development pressures in the trends in the basin will ultimately contribute ecosystem from its native condition has 1980s, and could therefore face a different to recommendations by managers for the generated two major assessments, the first way of life. The onetime assessment was 145 million acres of Federal lands involved, (1989-94) a process ultimately limited by followed up by a flurry of conservation half the total area. the boundaries of agency purview, the planning and additional assessment activity. second (1993) designed to address restora- “While there is no blueprint for conduct tion issues in all natural systems across In the interior Columbia basin, concern or outcome of such assessments, they have ownerships of south Florida, and conducted about forest and rangeland health, timber all been important meeting grounds of in response to specific policy questions. harvest, and the status of some fish and science, management, and policy across the wildlife species brought Federal land plan- United States,” says Swanson. “They are The northern forest lands assessment ning into the spotlight. But Forest Service obviously important media for addressing began without an immediate crisis. Instead, and Bureau of Land Management plans in compatibility of resource uses.” And there is it faced a wake-up call in the form of a the 1990s addressed issues on individual nothing simple about them. warning that a remote, relatively undevel- planning units with only limited focus oped part of the country could be affected on larger geographic areas. The recently

WRITER’S PROFILE Sally Duncan is a science communications planner and writer specializing in forest resource issues. She lives in Corvallis, Oregon.

3 SHARPENING A NEW TOOL he earliest challenge falls on ments as just one step in a collaborative “These are far more than just library proj- scientists. “Scientists can play a vari- process of developing learning infrastruc- ects,” says Greene. “The real tool is the T ety of roles in these assessments. tures. With this intent, people can begin to concept, the idea that people will come They can help sharpen the definitions of understand their regions better, hence together from an array of disciplines and the resource-ecosystem-social problems. being better prepared to avert crises work together on thinking in broad-ranging, They can help define the capabilities of the before they develop. Scientists, managers, interdisciplinary, large-scale geographic biophysical system to supply goods and and the public alike have a stake in improv- ways.”They think, also, about current condi- services, and they can help frame and ing this understanding. In particular, inter- tion, and about future options. execute the assessment,” says Swanson. ested segments of the public are more The tool, then, is perhaps best used to likely to support management recommen- And they can examine the consequences of change the way people think about, and dations to which they have contributed. solutions and alternatives, he notes, for the work together on, natural resource issues. difficult task, which rightly belongs to Because there are no established criteria Thus the pass off of information from managers or others making the policy deci- for success, the temptation does exist to scientists to managers becomes a crucial sions. It is the policy decisions, of course, study the problem until the money runs pivot point: they are trying to light the way not usually the science, that arouse the out. This has been a major source of criti- toward possible new futures, rather than next level of furor. cism from both insiders and outside actually designing the path. observers. How much actual use are these But Swanson and Greene emphasize the huge accruals of data? they ask. importance of seeing bioregional assess-

ARE YOU SURE OF YOUR CONCLUSIONS? ut the problem of scientific uncer- Swanson believes that it must be made pointed out that admitting uncertainty tainty is naturally magnified by larger clear from the outset that uncertainty should no longer be seen as a weakness. B scales. exists, and what its nature and magnitude Rather, it is by recognizing and probing it are. “Uncertainty in science is treated by that science can continue to play its best “Policymakers are asked to provide policies attempting to define its causes, levels, and role. with predictable outcomes in an unpre- consequences by using methods such as dictable world. Scientists reject the idea “Bioregional assessments challenge scientific sensitivity analysis. In most cases, uncer- that knowledge is ever complete enough to traditions by asking scientists for credible, tainty increases in more complex and large- ensure no surprises,” notes science writer objective information where the grand scale systems.” Peg Herring, in the introduction to the scale and complexity of issues prevent the synthesis produced by the Swanson- He notes this renders the value of peer usual methods of checking for uncertainty,” Greene group. “Bioregional assessments review, both by selected experts in the says Greene. offer a way of quantifying choices, so that field, and by “blind” review, even higher than consequences are better understood.” in traditional science. Other scientists have

A NEW KIND OF SCIENCE erhaps the most painful question geographic scope, and political profile “But even a task as apparently straight- of all for scientists involved comes demanded of scientists in bioregional forward as objectively describing current P from their colleagues: Is this really assessments,” Swanson notes. “The ques- conditions may be controversial, as in the science? Most researchers pulled into tions posed by policymakers are less likely case of assessing the population of an bioregional assessments have at some point to be answered with the techniques of obscure species,” says Swanson. “Inter- to address this dire professional question. traditional science.” preting patterns and causes of trends opens yet additional sources of conflict To a significant extent, assessments on this Specifically, scientists tend to limit their and uncertainty.” large scale are about compilation and interpretations to the range of data. In synthesis of data. Without the usual appur- particular, the fields of ecological and social Invariably, at the beginning of the process, tenances of experimental science—the science so central to bioregional assess- data may be sparse, uneven, and of un- hypothesis, the experimental treatment, the ments have emphasized work at fine spatial known quality and coverage. Most assess- control, the replication, the field observa- scales and short time scales of seasons to ments unearth these problems and offer tions, the simulation modeling—a biore- years. suggestions for research directions to be gional assessment does not fit the tradi- pursued. Some even incorporate new Scientists are called on to produce a “value- tional definition and tools of “real science.” research into the process. neutral” synthesis of scientifically credible “The traditional roles of scientists generally information to determine current condi- lack the highly interdisciplinary, broad tions, which sounds doable.

4 LESSONS AFTER THE FACT he bioregional assessments book summarized several emerging BIOREGIONAL ASSESSMENT TOOLS themes and trends derived from T Tools and devices: Possible uses and values: case studies from around the country. Perhaps the clearest need of all is that a Charter Negotiate the task; set the course charter should define the planned scope of Conceptual framework Outline components and their relation to the assessment, according to Swanson. Give keep the work on track and take between the policymakers and the assessment team leader in creating a char- Species viability assessments, Structure analysis of possible complex ter defines the needed job and assures that risk analysis outcomes or alternatives it is doable. The conceptual framework of Peer review Critical analysis of preliminary findings how the major pieces fit together is in the end much more important than mere data. Science consistency check Confirm information exchange between information providers and decisionmakers; The eternal challenge of public involve- distinguish roles. ment—a central issue in every bioregional assessment—has no simple solution. It can involve insurmountable tradeoffs, polariza- Successful bioregional assessments benefit from a variety of tools and devices to guide ➢ tion, and lack of support. Or it can smooth them at different stages of development. No assessment studied made use of all tools. the path to implementation of actions that benefit the region. “Two areas of common shortcoming in the not, scientists and research institutions must Clear questions are needed from policy- followup activities are commitment to face this new challenge, which seems to be makers, at the same time as scientists need monitoring, and research to test assump- here to stay. to understand they will never evade the tions used in assessments and new policy,” As Swanson notes, “There is much to be questions of policymakers. As Greene says Swanson. “This institutional inertia learned from their emerging, rich lore. points out, a bioregional assessment does creates problems for scientists through lack They are an important part of society’s not set policy, it is neither an environmental of rewards and resources for continued changing relations with the ecosystems and impact statement nor a forest plan. regional work, and limits the institutions in natural resource systems we depend on their service to society.” “It doesn’t even necessarily answer the and are part of.” questions it sets out to answer,” she adds, And in service to society, how will scientists “but if it’s good, it will generate its own make time to play these new roles thrust “While scientists are being good questions, especially around the on them, finding and translating data, asked to function as extremely difficult issue of integration.” neglecting their research programs for the philosopher kings less and duration? As difficult as this issue is for Perhaps not surprisingly, a short timeframe less, they are being asked to and a tight budget tend to constrain the research institutions to face and reorganize provide conservation assessment and address the immediate around, the synthesis group concluded that problems more successfully. Keeping people bioregional assessments are advancing both leadership more and more.” under pressure seems to help them think science and public thinking about natural K. Norman Johnson outside the conventions, discourage major resources at the regional scale. Like it or digressions, and produce more creative solutions. FOR FURTHER READING Devices used during the assessments Gunderson, L.H.; Holling, C.S.; Light, S.S., eds. 1995. Barriers and bridges to renewal of include risk analysis and species viability ecosystems and institutions. New York: Columbia University Press. assessment techniques. Policy analysis and various forms of peer review often are Johnson, K.N.; Swanson, F.; Herring, M.; Greene, S., eds. 1999. Bioregional assessments: used at several stages of the assessment science at the crossroads of management and policy. Island Press. process. Science consistency checks of policy documents, in which an overview team evaluates whether all the science has been considered, and how appropriately data have been used in formulating policy, are starting to be used more widely.

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SCIENTIST PROFILES FREDERICK SWANSON, a research geologist SARAH GREENE is a forest ecologist with the with the PNW Research Station, has been PNW Research Station Ecosystems Team. She studying landslides, fire, and other disturbance manages the Cascade Head and Wind River processes in western Oregon for more than Experimental Forests, and is a member of the 25 years. Swanson is a leader of the National Wind River Canopy Crane Research Facility. Science Foundation-sponsored Long-Term She is currently working on a history of the Ecological Research Program at the Wind River Experimental Forest. She is H.J.Andrews Experimental Forest. He is also a actively involved with the regionwide perma- leader of the Cascade Center of Ecosystem Management, a research- nent sample plot group that is part of the Ecosystems Team. She management partnership involving Forest Service Research, the administers the research natural area (RNA) program in Washington Willamette National Forest, and Oregon State University. and Oregon and is the interagency RNA scientist. E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Phone: (541) 750-7355 Phone: (541)750-7360 SWANSON and GREENE can be reached at: Pacific Northwest Research Station/USDA Forest Service Forest Science Laboratory 3200 S.W. Jefferson Way Corvallis, Oregon 97331

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