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Future Flight Initial Aviation Safety Framework, Full Report, July

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Future Flight Initial Aviation Safety Framework, Full Report, July Future Flight Initial Aviation Safety Framework Report for UKRI July 2021 In partnership with Executive summary This report analyses and documents the potential hazards and controls at a more detailed level. developments in future flight that will influence safety These complementary approaches led to a set of and identifies the activities required to address the recommendations placed on different stakeholder safety impacts especially those that will have a groups and supplemented by requirements placed significant impact on the development of the future orthogonally on functions and capabilities of the key aviation system. It has been produced by Egris and elements of the future aviation system. A detailed the University of York under contract to UK Research analysis of the key safety management challenges and Innovation (UKRI). associated with the four transversal themes added further recommendations at the strategic level. The analysis was structured into a set of future scenarios using actor diagrams as pictorial elements. The output of this project comprises an initial safety These represent the evolution of the (future) aviation framework, with a particular focus on the top layers of system over different time horizons (short-/medium-/ the argument and constructed in the goal structuring long-term). Within the scenarios, use cases have notation (GSN) language that is familiar to many been defined. The use cases describe the primary safety professionals. The framework is defined at applications of new flight technology which are the strategic level and this report provides the key relevant to the scope of the Future Flight Challenge contextual elements of the framework as well as (FFC). In addition, a set of transversal themes were setting out the claims and evidence required to be also defined which are relevant across all scenarios produced as part of future work. and use-cases. The transversal themes are topics which are considered to have a significant impact on The analysis concludes with a presentation of the future aviation safety. highest priority recommendations to address as the first steps in setting out a programme of safety work The use cases selected for the project were: for future flight operations: Use case 1 - Drones, which comprises three Recommendation 9.1 – Development of a concept sub-use cases: drones for delivery, drones for of operations for the future aviation system which inspection/monitoring/broadcast and drones includes transitional states. that perform robotic functions (e.g. repair, crop spraying) Recommendation 9.2 – Establishment of Target Levels of Safety for aircraft operations, including Use case 2 - Urban Air Mobility (UAM) specific future flight use cases. Use case 3 - Regional Air Mobility (RAM) Recommendation 9.3 – Establishment of an aviation system risk baseline made up of both the current Four transversal themes were also risk profile and the future expected risk profile, based identified for the project: upon future concepts of operations. Safety management of complex systems Recommendation 9.4 – Prioritisation of the Integrated risk and safety management issues and recommendations in the report and the establishment of a safety work program in support of Role of the human and autonomy the FFC. This should include, amongst other things, a plan for managing the impacts of complex systems Supporting infrastructure at the Governance, Management and Task/Technical The analysis addressed safety impacts across the layers. This should also include consideration of governance, organisational and technical layers. the many more detailed recommendations in this This was performed through application of the report. Consideration should be given to placing safer complex systems framework developed the responsibility for developing and delivering this by Engineering X at the strategic level and plan on a pan-industry body or, establishing one complemented by use of bowtie analysis to analyse specifically for this purpose. 2 Contents 1 Introduction 6 1.1 Context.............................................................................................................................................................................. 7 1.2 Background...................................................................................................................................................................... 7 1.3 Structure of Report......................................................................................................................................................... 7 2 Project Approach 8 2.1 Introduction...................................................................................................................................................................... 9 2.2 Scenarios, Use Cases and Transversal Themes.................................................................................................... 10 2.3 Project Scope................................................................................................................................................................ 10 2.4 Output of Project...........................................................................................................................................................10 2.5 Working group............................................................................................................................................................... 11 3 The Current Aviation System 12 3.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................13 3.2 International Governance and Regulation............................................................................................................... 13 3.3 UK Governance and Regulation................................................................................................................................. 14 3.4 Stakeholders and Interactions................................................................................................................................... 16 4 The Future Aviation System 18 4.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................19 4.2 Scenarios........................................................................................................................................................................19 4.3 Use Case 1 – Drones................................................................................................................................................... 24 4.4 Use Case 2 – Urban Air Mobility................................................................................................................................ 25 4.5 Use Case 3 – Regional Air Mobility........................................................................................................................... 27 5 Safety Management Challenges of Future Flight 28 5.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................29 5.2 Complex Systems in the Aviation System............................................................................................................... 29 5.3 Integrated Risk and Safety Management................................................................................................................ 30 5.4 Role of the Human and Autonomy............................................................................................................................ 31 5.5 Supporting Infrastructure............................................................................................................................................32 6 Safety Analysis of the Future Aviation System 33 6.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................34 6.2 Application to Future Flight.........................................................................................................................................34 6.3 Impact of Future Flight on Existing UK Aviation Operations................................................................................ 34 6.4 Impact of Future Flight on Future UK Aviation Operations...................................................................................37 3 7 Analysis of Key Safety Management Challenges 41 7.1 Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................42 7.2 Complex Systems in the Aviation System............................................................................................................... 42 7.3 Integrated Risk and Safety Management................................................................................................................ 46 7.4 Role of the Human and Autonomy............................................................................................................................ 48 7.5 Supporting Infrastructure............................................................................................................................................49 8 An Initial
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