Issue 1352 8 February 2019 // USAF CSDS News and Analysis Issue 1352 // Feature Report “Four Problems on the Korean Peninsula: North Korea’s Expanding Nuclear Capabilities Drive a Complex Set of Problems”. Published by RAND; Jan. 11, 2019 https://www.rand.org/pubs/tools/TL271.html North Korean provocations and threats have created an unstable environment on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea's ongoing development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles increases the possibility of their use against regional states, furthering instability across the region and beyond. The United States, its allies, and other theater powers, including China and Russia, must attend to four interconnected threats. Failure to prepare will increase the chance of mistakes and miscalculation and constrain options to reduce the likelihood or gravity of future conflicts. Problem 1: North Korea is on a trajectory of nuclear development that has transformed it into a fundamentally different kind of strategic challenge — a state with a significant nuclear arsenal, an increasing range and number of delivery systems, and a nuclear doctrine of early or even preemptive use. Problem 2: North Korea has medium- and long-range artillery that can hold South Korean population centers hostage to a massive conventional and chemical barrage. Problem 3: If North Korea employs chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons or conventional artillery against Seoul, up to 25 million South Koreans, 1 million Chinese, and 500,000 other foreign citizens — including 150,000 Americans — might be in immediate danger. This could trigger mass panic and prompt a massive civilian evacuation of Seoul and other population centers. Problem 4: A regime collapse could occur with little warning and have disastrous implications. Possible consequences include a civil war; a massive humanitarian crisis; and the potential for the theft, proliferation, and use of North Korea's chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons. Issue No. 1320 22 June 2018 twitter.com/USAF_CSDS | au.af.mil/au/csds // 2 // USAF CSDS News and Analysis Issue 1352 // TABLE OF CONTENTS NUCLEAR WEAPONS • Pentagon Official: No Plans to Develop New Missile System amid end of Russian Arms Treaty (The Hill) Undersecretary of Defense for Policy John Rood said that because the U.S. has been in full compliance with the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty since it was signed in 1987, “we don’t have an intermediate range system or something like that that we would, that we’re talking about deploying at this time.” • ICBM Test Conducted from Vandenberg Air Force Base; Anti-weapons Group Raises Concerns (Lompoc Record) The intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, was blasted from a silo on the northern portion of the base at 11:01 p.m. • Russia Bids Farewell to INF Treaty with Fresh Nuclear Development Plans (Defense News) The U.S. and Russia have been sparring over mutual alleged violations of the INF Treaty since at least 2014, when the Obama administration began issuing vague protests of Russian noncompliance. US COUNTER-WMD • Blue Ribbon Study Panel on Biodefense Focuses on DOD Role in Protecting U.S. against Bio Attacks (Homeland Preparedness News) “Our troops must be able to ‘survive and fight’ in any environment, including one contaminated with chemical or biological weapons agents,” said Derek ‘Dirk’ Maurer … US ARMS CONTROL • Trump Announces Second North Korea Summit in State of the Union (Defense One) Broadly, the speech reflected policy ideas and positions that Trump articulated as a candidate — such as a desire to get out of military engagements in the Middle East — or that his administration has already enacted. • Russia: US Nuclear Pact Withdrawal Does Not Mean ‘Development of a Cold War’ (The Hill) President Trump said in his own statement that the U.S. would “move forward with developing our own military response options” to the violations and work to “deny Russia any military advantage from its unlawful conduct.” • French Air Force Rehearses a Long-Range Nuclear Strike (Defense News) The French Air Force has successfully practiced a nuclear strike mission, sending aircraft on an 11-hour mission to sneak a nuclear-capable cruise missile through simulated enemy air defenses and nail it into the sands of a test range south of Bordeaux. twitter.com/USAF_CSDS | au.af.mil/au/csds // 3 // USAF CSDS News and Analysis Issue 1352 // COMMENTARY • North Korea and America’s Second Summit: Here’s What Graham Allison Thinks Will Happen (National Interest) If the upcoming summit ends with a verifiable commitment from North Korea to eliminate all ICBMs, and not to produce additional missiles, in exchange for a political declaration ending the Korean War, that would be a significant achievement. • Welcome to the New Nuclear Arms Race (The Hill) But in "Arms Race Two: The Sequel," now we have the U.S. and Russian presidents conspiring in the opposite direction — to kill nuclear arms control. • The Best Defense Ever? Myths about the Trump Administration’s Missile Defense Review (War on the Rocks) The 2019 Missile Defense Review is only the latest in a long series of attempts to “solve” dilemmas of defense with dreams of new technologies. twitter.com/USAF_CSDS | au.af.mil/au/csds // 4 // USAF CSDS News and Analysis Issue 1352 // NUCLEAR WEAPONS The Hill (Washington, D.C.) Pentagon Official: No Plans to Develop New Missile System amid End of Russian Arms Treaty By Ellen Mitchell Feb. 6, 2019 The head of Pentagon policy on Wednesday said the military is not yet planning to create or deploy an intermediate-range missile system in the light of the U.S. announcing it will no longer comply with a Soviet-era arms control pact with Russia. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy John Rood said that because the U.S. has been in full compliance with the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty since it was signed in 1987, “we don’t have an intermediate range system or something like that that we would, that we’re talking about deploying at this time.” “We’re going to look at our options in this regard,” Rood added. The Trump administration last week announced long-anticipated plans to stop complying with the INF Treaty, accusing Russia of violating the agreement for years. Moscow has for years denied breaching the agreement, though officials from successive administrations have raised the issue in failed diplomatic talks. The treaty, signed by then-President Reagan and Soviet Union leader Mikhail Gorbachev, bans nuclear and conventional ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles, including those that can carry a nuclear warhead, with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. The declaration kick-starts a six-month withdrawal period, during which Russia has a final chance to comply with the treaty by destroying the missiles that violate it and associated equipment. But Moscow has indicated it will also abandon INF, with plans to develop two new land-based missile launch systems by 2021 in order to counter U.S. developments in its missile capabilities. In his State of the Union speech on Tuesday night, President Trump countered that the United States “is developing a state of the art missile defense system,” and “will never apologize for advancing America’s interests.” “Perhaps we can negotiate a different agreement, adding China and others, or perhaps we can’t. In which case we will outspend and out innovate all others, by far,” Trump added. Rood, one of the leaders in creating the Trump administration’s newly released Missile Defense Review, said U.S. officials will discuss their defense options with allies at a NATO defense ministers meeting later this month in Brussels. “We’re going to have to see how we adapt our defense posture in response to that new reality,” Rood said. He added that Washington doesn’t “have any plans right now and aren’t contemplating a deployment of nuclear missiles in Europe or anything of that nature. That’s not what we’re thinking about right now.” https://thehill.com/policy/defense/428845-pentagon-official-no-plans-to-develop-new-missile- system-amid-end-of-russian twitter.com/USAF_CSDS | au.af.mil/au/csds // 5 // USAF CSDS News and Analysis Issue 1352 // Return to top Lompoc Record (Lompoc, Calif.) ICBM Test Conducted from Vandenberg Air Force Base; Anti-weapons Group Raises Concerns By Willis Jacobson Feb. 6, 2019 An unarmed Minuteman III missile was fired from Vandenberg Air Force Base late Tuesday night as part of a test of the U.S. nuclear weapons system. The intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, was blasted from a silo on the northern portion of the base at 11:01 p.m. The missile’s launch and journey created an extended deep rumble that resonated throughout the Lompoc Valley and beyond. Representatives with Air Force Global Strike Command did not reveal whether the test was deemed successful. The ICBM test launches, according to the Air Force, are held regularly and are not related to any specific real-world events. Representatives of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, however, raised concerns about the test being held just days after President Donald Trump’s administration announced Feb. 1 that the U.S. would be withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces, or INF, Treaty with Russia. That treaty has been a cornerstone of arms control since the Cold War, and the U.S. planned exit has raised fears among some of a new arms race. The Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, which has a stated mission to “educate, advocate and inspire action for a just and peaceful world, free of nuclear weapons,” is among those sharing those worries. “It’s time for Americans to wake up,” David Krieger, president of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, said ahead of Tuesday’s missile test.