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Developing Urban Transport in Turkey with Much Higher Dependence on Walking and Cycling

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Developing Urban Transport in Turkey with Much Higher Dependence on Walking and Cycling DEVELOPING URBAN TRANSPORT IN TURKEY WITH MUCH HIGHER DEPENDENCE ON WALKING AND CYCLING Can Bıyık A thesis submitted to the University of Birmingham for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY School of Civil Engineering College of Engineering and Physical Sciences University of Birmingham November 2017 University of Birmingham Research Archive e-theses repository This unpublished thesis/dissertation is copyright of the author and/or third parties. The intellectual property rights of the author or third parties in respect of this work are as defined by The Copyright Designs and Patents Act 1988 or as modified by any successor legislation. Any use made of information contained in this thesis/dissertation must be in accordance with that legislation and must be properly acknowledged. Further distribution or reproduction in any format is prohibited without the permission of the copyright holder. Abstract Providing genuine alternatives to the use of just a personal motor vehicle for transportation within urban areas is one of many vital components that can make cities of the future prosperous and liveable. This kind of inspirational and realistic vision can offer new insights towards a more sustainable and desirable future. Developing an urban road transportation system where a much higher preference for a low-cost sustainable model is encouraged (i.e. walking, cycling, and public transport). Creating a great work environment is at the heart of this newly proposed 20-year urban transport vision for Turkish cities, which also draws upon inspiration from many other Western European cities. The usefulness and credibility of any proposed assessment of this kind will undoubtedly depend on the level of cooperation of its participants. A detailed literature review revealed the need for increased public participation in its planning and developmental stages. As such, a wide range of potential participants must be selected carefully to maximise their contribution for creating future sustainable transportation systems. A review of some previous sustainable transportion scenarios in other areas has also revealed that each key change usually did not represent an aspirational urban mode of transportation that was interconnected through underlying systemic relationships. Development of a framework that facilitates a set of quality criteria would, therefore, represent a significant advance in the evaluation and design of a sustainable vision. In that regard, this thesis presents a methodological framework, which inductively arrives at a systematic mechanism for developing sustainable transportation scenarios. It was determined that two essential steps needed to be taken to make this vision a reality. First, it was reasoned that convening with different users and professionals from various disciplines to investigate the reliability of this idea was the best approach. Second, the policies that need to be designed (from the present to 2035) by the central and local administrations to achieve our specific goals were discussed and evaluatd by national and local decision makers. Overall, the conclusion of the thesis indicates that the content of our aspirationally based proposal was credible and effective. Our innovative approach provided an opportunity for several creative choices and alternatives to be determined by thoroughly addressing our research objectives. Future areas of research were also identified and described. iii Dedication I dedicate this thesis to my effort. iv Acknowledgements The author would first like to express his sincere gratitude and appreciation to the Ministry of Turkish National Education (MEB) for sponsoring his PhD studies at the University of Birmingham, United Kingdom. This project would not have been done without the financial support from them. I would like especially to thank my supervisors, Professor Miles Tight and Dr Michael Burrow, for reading through the research chapters and journal drafts for their useful comments, suggestions, and encouragements throughout the course of the study. I would like to express my gratitude to annual year examiners, Dr Dexter Hunt and Dr Fiona Rajé, for their time during my annual reviews. Thank you for their patience, support, and guidance throughout the processes. My deepest gratitude must go to my mother. The academic journey may not have been more enjoyable without her constant motivation, reassurance, and good wishes. I am grateful to all university staff, and office friends, especially for postgraduate service, that provided a very pleasant environment for my academic skills and I wish to extend my deepest thanks to my colleagues F59B in the University of Birmingham for their helpful guidance and inspiration throughout my research. I would finally like to thank many anonymous participants, without whom the questionnaire surveys and interviews may not have been carried out and the İstanbul Metropolitan Urban Design and City Planning Office team for their support during the process of designing 3D imaginary pictures. v Table of Contents Abstract.............................................................................................................................................iii Dedication ..........................................................................................................................................iv Acknowledgments...............................................................................................................................v Table of Contents ..............................................................................................................................vi List of Tables .....................................................................................................................................xi List of Figures...................................................................................................................................xii List of Boxes.....................................................................................................................................xiii List of Abbreviations.......................................................................................................................xiv CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION.....................................................................................................1 1.0. Overview .......................................................................................................................................1 1.1. Research Background....................................................................................................................2 1.2. Statement of the Problem ..............................................................................................................4 1.3. Research Aim ................................................................................................................................5 1.3.1. Research Objectives .............................................................................................................5 1.4. Significance of the Study ..............................................................................................................6 1.5. Expected Contribution of the Research.........................................................................................6 1.6.Structure of the Thesis....................................................................................................................7 CHAPTER 2: REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE.........................................................................9 2.0. Overview .......................................................................................................................................9 2.1. Futures Studies ............................................................................................................................10 2.2. A Selective History of Futures Thinking ....................................................................................11 2.3. Overview of Approaches to Futures............................................................................................12 2.3.1. Forecasting Scenarios.........................................................................................................13 2.3.2. Exploratory Scenarios.........................................................................................................13 2.3.3. Normative Scenarios...........................................................................................................14 2.4. Example Projects of Future Approaches.....................................................................................14 2.4.1. Forecasting..........................................................................................................................14 2.4.2. Exploratory .........................................................................................................................15 2.4.3. Normative ...........................................................................................................................17 2.5. Urban Mobility Systems..............................................................................................................19 2.5.1. Developed Countries ..........................................................................................................19 2.5.2. Turkey.................................................................................................................................20 2.6.
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