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Renewable Trends and developments

IEA EGRD Eelco Dekker, Chief EU Representative, Methanol Institute Paris, October 21, 2019

WWW.METHANOL.ORG 01 Introduction

WWW.METHANOL.ORG A global industry association

• First formed in 1989, the Methanol Institute (MI) serves as the trade association for the global methanol industry.

• MI represents the world’s leading methanol producers, distributors and technology companies from offices around the world

MI provides value to its members by: • Ensuring safe handling of methanol and its derivatives • Promoting methanol growth by furthering methanol as an essential chemical commodity and an emerging source of clean and • Influencing global regulatory and public policy initiatives that impactthe methanol industry

WWW.METHANOL.ORG 2019 members

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Ecofuel

Tier 4

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Methanol is simplest of alcohols • Simple molecule rich in Formula: CH3OH , with only a single Density: 0,792 g.cm-3 bond Molar mass: 32,04 g mol-1

• Clear and colorless liquid at Appearance: colourless liquid room temperature and ambient pressure

• Also known as “wood alcohol,” methanol can be produced from a wide range of feedstocks

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Broad feedstock range, many applications

feedstock conversion derivatives products markets

other 7% appliances solvents 4% chloromethanes 2% ~65% automotive MTO 18%

methylamines 3% DME 8% construction 3% blending 9% ~35% electronics MTMA 2% MTBE 8% coal fuel acetic acid 9% methanol synthesis paint formaldehyde 27%

<1% pharma source: IHS biomass & and more…. renewables

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Renewable methanol report available

In February 2019 MI released its Renewable Methanol Report prepared by ATA Insights

Contents: • Executive summary • Why consider renewable methanol? • Renewable methanol production • Case Studies: CRI, Enerkem, BioMCN • Applications and uses of renewable methanol • Conclusions and how to find out more

• https://www.methanol.org/renewable-methanol/

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Low carbon pathways exist

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Different forces impact e-methanol potential

policy

E-methanol

supply demand

WWW.METHANOL.ORG 02 Supply

WWW.METHANOL.ORG PtX and CCU are similar, but different

HYDROGEN fossil biogenic renewable fossil CARBON biogenic CCU PtX

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Plenty of sources of CO2 available

Direct Air Capture Concentration ~415 ppm

Flue gases up to 700 ton/hour Concentration ~10% - 15%

Ethanol fermentation up to 50 ton/hour Concentration ~95%

Biogas purification up to 0,7 ton/hour Concentration ~90%

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Increasing carbon conversion yield

C2H5OH 1 t/h

production CO2 1 t/h

Gevo WWW.METHANOL.ORG Increasing carbon conversion yield

C2H5OH Ethanol 1 t/h

production CO2 1 t/h

H2O steam 0,41 t/h Methanol <0,7 ton CH3OH synthesis per hour

H2 0,14 t/h

H2O 1,23 t/h Electrolysis

O2 1,09 t/h Steam generation

Gevo WWW.METHANOL.ORG Very low carbon intensity and no (i)LUC

Renewable methanol

Source: Meo Carbon Solutions

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Methanol process requires less hydrogen

4H 2H

64 w% CH3OH Power-to-Methanol CO2 + 3H2 ➔ CH3OH + H2O 36 w% H2O

1/3 difference in hydrogen

30 w% CH4 Power-to- CO2 + 4H2 ➔ CH4 + 2H2O 70 w% H2O 4H 4H

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Methanol has a density advantage

To store 4.800 kWh requires very different volumes:

Methanol* Methane (200bar)* Hydrogen (200bar)* Lithium-Ion-Battery Pumped Hydrostorage 0

1 1.0 1.9

10 9.1

24.0

100 Volumen in m³ in Volumen

1, 000

10,000 4,800.0

*Calculation excluding conversion losses based on heating value

WWW.METHANOL.ORG The practical side of energy storage

One cubic meter of e-Methanol contains the same amount of energy as the battery capacity of 222 BMW i3‘s*

=

1 Nm³ CH3OH

*Storage capacity BMW i3 = 21,6 kWh

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Competitive cost position feasible

€200/MWh200 fuel 1120€1120/t Green premium in biodiesel €1600/t1600 180 980 €0.75/L 1200 160 840 800 140 Product value EBIDTA 400 120 700 €0.53/L 0 100 560 FMAM J J A SOND J €0.42/L 80 420 Nordpool electricity futures 60 Full operating costs 60 280 40 40 20 140 20 0 0 0 1020304050607080€80/MWh el 0 Nordpool price 19 20 21 22 23 24 *Jan ‘18– Jan ‘19 Sources: CRI, NasdaqOMX, Energy Census

Source:

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Several factors impact profitability

Economics improving Learning curve effects Scale economies Efficiency improvements

Growing renewable fuel demand Increasing targets Cap on Battery electric drive not applied in trucks or ships

Increased low-cost RES electricity Wind and PV costs falling Intermittency = surplus capacity Grid congestion

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Most e-methanol examples in Europe

....the future?

WWW.METHANOL.ORG 03 Demand

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Combustion engines remain dominant

EU Reference Scenario 2016; Energy, transport and GHG emissions, Trends to 2050; https://bit.ly/2yzeW0z

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Oil displacement drives growth

Source: IHS

WWW.METHANOL.ORG use increasing globally

Canada – Waterfront Iceland – M100 Sweden – methanol Shipping Vessels Trials marine fuel China– M15 to M100, industrial Denmark – boilers, etc. methanol fuel cells for vehicles UK – EN228 low blend Eni/FCA M15/E5 Israel – Power generation & M15 Standard Egypt – M15 Trials India – Roadmap

USA – methanol motorsport fuel Africa – cooking stoves

Australia – GEM fuel

New Zealand – Introducing M3

WWW.METHANOL.ORG German OEMs investigate methanol fuels

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Methanol range extender

• 1.000 kilometer electric range • 3 minutes refuelling • Existing infrastructure

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Closing the carbon cycle in marine

WWW.METHANOL.ORG 04 Policy

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Policy leaves room for interpretation

E-fuels are categorized in Renewable Energy Directive 2 (RED2) as ‘ of Non-biological Origin’

Specific details in the legislation leave room for interpretation at Member State level:

Either, share of renewability determined by national grid average from 2 years before

Or, 100% renewable provided a direct connection exists, and power is... • not taken from the grid • òr, when taken from the grid proof of sustainability is provided • ànd, electricity is additional

E-fuels no longer recognised as Advanced Fuel

WWW.METHANOL.ORG 05 To conclude

WWW.METHANOL.ORG The future is bright

E-Methanol is an opportunity to provide electricity in liquid form (‘liquid electricity’), which makes it an interesting way to utilize carbon ànd store electricity because it: • Uses mature technologies • Enables energy efficient production, especially when integrated • Can be used in existing engines and infrastructure • Is suitable for road vehicles and ships, and for power as well as heat • Reduces emissions • Can be made economically viable

However, political bottleneck will have to be addressed to ensure a level playing field exists between all low carbon options (technology neutral)

WWW.METHANOL.ORG SINGAPORE (HQ) WASHINGTON D.C. BRUSSELS BEIJING

10 Anson Road 225 Reinekers Lane Square de Meeûs 38-40 #511, Pacific Sci-tech #32-10 International Plaza Suite 205 B-1000 Brussels Development Center Singapore 079903 Alexandria, VA 22314 Belgium Peking University + 65 6325 6300 +1 (703) 248-3636 +32 241 6151 No. 52 Hai Dian Rd. Beijing 100871, China +86 10 6275 5984

WWW.METHANOL.ORG - Back up

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Modern approach to biorefining

Sustainable (residues, MSW, etc)

Fermentation

Biogas

Biomethane BioMCN, The Netherlands

Reformer Reactor & distillation

Bio-methanol

Courtesy QAFAQ

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Or to syngas

Sustainable biomass (residues, MSW, etc)

Gasification

Enerkem, Canada

Reactor Syngas & distillation

Bio-methanol

Courtesy QAFAQ

WWW.METHANOL.ORG And from pulp mill processes

Sustainable biomass (residues, MSW, etc)

Kraft process

Södra, Sweden

Reactor & distillation

Bio-methanol

Courtesy QAFAQ

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Many energy applications still early in life cycle

DME OME MD95 MTBE M100 GEM Turbines biodiesel Generators

sales M15

M3 boilers cook stoves marine fuel cell

introduction growth mature decline

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Methanol synthesis

Several methanol synthesis catalysts are commercially available, with improved activity and selectivity. The catalysts are utilized for methanol synthesis from carbon monoxide, and hydrogen.

CO + 2H2 ↔ CH3OH ΔHR = - 91 kJ/mol

CO2 + 3H2 ↔ CH3OH + H2O ΔHR = - 49 kJ/mol

Both methanol forming reactions are interconnected with the water gas shift reaction:

CO + H2O ↔ CO2 + H2 ΔHR = - 42 kJ/mol

The above equilibrium reactions are exothermic, so low reaction temperatures and high reaction pressures favor methanol yield.

WWW.METHANOL.ORG PtX and CCU are similar but not the same

1 Convert electricity to 2 Convert hydrogen to fuel hydrogen

gaseous liquid

- • hydrogen electricity electrolysis hydrogen Nitrogen • ammonia

Carbon • methane • formic acid • methanol • butanol • FT diesel • gasoline •a.o.

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Methanol is a great energy carrier

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Comparing apples to apples

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Less dangerous than gasoline

Source: Malcolm Pirnie, Inc. , Technical Memorandum

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Methanol has lower fire risk

Methanol evaporates slowly needs lots of vapour to burn confined fire zone; fires less likely

Gasoline evaporates fast needs little vapour to burn broad fire zone; fires more likely

WWW.METHANOL.ORG Putting things in perspective

LC50 - Lethal dosis fish

Gasoline [1] Diesel [2] Methanol 8,2 mg/l 65 mg/l 15.400 mg/l

Sources: [1] Petrobras/Statoil ASA, Safety Data Sheet, ECHA registration dossier Gasoline [2] ECHA, European Chemical Agency, registration dossier Diesel [3] ECHA, European Chemical Agency, registration dossier Methanol

WWW.METHANOL.ORG