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County of Simcoe Housing Needs Assessment and Recommended Housing Policies and Programs

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County of Simcoe Housing Needs Assessment and Recommended Housing Policies and Programs Schedule 1 Human Services Committee HS 07-068 Page1 County of Simcoe Housing Needs Assessment and Recommended Housing Policies and Programs EXECUTIVE SUMMARY April 2007 Prepared For: The Corporation of the County of Simcoe Prepared By: Schedule 1 Human Services Committee HS 07-068 Page2 Executive Summary Ideally, the housing market can be seen as a continuum, where supply responds to the changing range of housing demands in a community. Housing needs along the continuum, however, are not always met in the market, especially for those with lower income or those with issues which require unique housing solutions. This study provides an analysis of the housing demand and supply over this entire housing continuum. Moreover, it identifies gaps in the housing supply and make recommendations to the County, local municipalities and community agencies on strategies to meet all housing needs of all residents in the County of Simcoe. For the purposes of this study, the County of Simcoe includes 16 area municipalities and two separated cities (the Cities of Barrie and Orillia). This study has been prepared in two parts. Part I is the Housing Needs Assessment (Needs Assessment). This phase is a comprehensive review of the current and projected housing needs in the County of Simcoe. The Needs Assessment builds upon existing information and provides analysis of Simcoe County’s complete housing continuum including current and projected trends in housing demand and supply. This report forms the foundation upon which Part II will be built. Part II is the development of a comprehensive set of Recommendations Housing Policies and Programs. This component of the project includes a focus on innovative approaches to housing supply, in particular the development of options that may be implemented to meet the area’s housing needs as identified in the Needs Assessment. Summary of Findings of the Simcoe County Housing Needs Assessment (Part 1) Population and Household Characteristics • Simcoe Experiencing Strong Population Growth The population of Simcoe County increased by 138,280 persons between 1986 to 2001; an increase of 58.2%. Simcoe County grew at a stronger rate than the overall provincial average of 25.4% over the same fifteen year period. The fastest growing areas of the County are Wasaga Beach (142.4%), Barrie (114.2%), and Innisfil (86.9%). These three municipalities account for just over half the County’s population growth from 1986 to 2001. Population projections indicate that Simcoe County is expected to grow by approximately 70% from 2001 to 2031. County of Simcoe Housing Needs Assessment and Recommendations on Policies and Programs - FINAL: April 2007 1 Schedule 1 Human Services Committee HS 07-068 Page3 • Concentration of Population Increasing in Barrie, Wasaga and Innisfil While all municipalities, with the exception of Tay, experienced positive population growth from 1986 to 2001, most experienced a decline in their share of the County’s population. However, the City of Barrie, in particular, experienced a growing concentration of the population. For example, Barrie’s share of the population in 1996 was 24.1% increasing by 3.5% in 2001 to reach 27.6%. The only other municipalities to experience an increase in their share of the population were Wasaga Beach by 0.7% and Innisfil by 0.1% from 1996 to 2001. • Population Aging Although still representing 45.8% of the total population in 2001, the proportion of the County’s population under the age of 34 declined by 6.9% from 1990 to 2001. The population between the 45 and 64 years increased by 4.4% and the population over the age of 65 increased by 3.6% over the same time period. Population projections estimate that the population over the age of 65 years will experience the strongest growth reaching 149,000 in 2031. This would mean that more than one in five persons in Simcoe County would be a senior by 2031. The second fastest growing age group in expected to be those between the ages of 45 and 64 years. This aging of the population would suggest a need for housing and support services to accommodate the need for more seniors in the future. • Age Distribution Varies by Municipality The northern municipalities such as Wasaga Beach, Collingwood, Ramara and Orillia have a greater proportion of their population over the age of 65. In Wasaga for example, 22.2% of their population is over the age of 65; more than one in five persons is a senior. The northern communities of Simcoe County are attractive to older adults who are retiring or who are looking for lifestyle changes. By comparison, the more southern municipalities generally have a greater proportion of younger adults (between the ages of 20 and 44 years). Bradford West Gwillimbury, Barrie and Essa for example, each have just over forty percent of their population between the ages of 20 and 44 years including approximately 20% which are between the ages of 20 and 34 years. Innisfil, New Tecumseth and Adjala-Tosrontio also have younger populations; each have over one-third of their population in the age range of 20 to 44 years. The southern municipalities also generally have a larger proportion of children and youth (ages 0 to 19 years) suggesting many young families in these municipalities. County of Simcoe Housing Needs Assessment and Recommendations on Policies and Programs - FINAL: April 2007 2 Schedule 1 Human Services Committee HS 07-068 Page4 • Wasaga Beach Experienced Highest Household Growth Rate from 1991 to 2001 The Municipality of Wasaga Beach experienced considerable household growth from 1991 to 2001 of 2,620 persons or by 101.6%. The City of Barrie had the second highest growth rate of 62.8%, followed by New Tecumseth (25.9%), Ramara (35.7%) and Springwater (33.4%). The City of Barrie represented 27% of the total households in 2001 and 41% of the total household growth from 1991 to 2001. • Increase in Smaller Households The number of one and two-person households represent over half (53.9%) of the total number of households within Simcoe County. Although showing a slight decline in proportion (1.2%) from 1991 to 2001, the number of four to five-person households continued to represent a significant proportion of total households at just over one-quarter (26.3%) of the total households. These trends show the need for a variety of unit types with a particular emphasis on those designed for smaller households and singles. • Household Projections Show Highest Growth Expected in Barrie and Wasaga Based on household projections by Hemson Consulting Ltd., the expected average annual household growth rate for Simcoe County is 2.6% from 2001 to 2026. Wasaga Beach is expected to have the highest average annual growth rate at 5.3%, followed by Barrie at 4.7%. The City of Barrie is expected to account for 48% of the total growth in households for the County of Simcoe. Wasaga Beach and Innisfil are expected to account for 7.1% and 6.7% respectively. • Manufacturing Industry Continues to Grow in Simcoe County Manufacturing is the largest employment industry within the County. In 2001, it employed 34,715 workers; an increase of 6,414 workers from 1996. Manufacturing, retail trade, healthcare and social assistance, accommodation and food services, and construction along with ‘other’ industries are the top six employment industries in the County. By municipality, Barrie had the highest number of workers employed in manufacturing in 2001 with 9,205 workers; representing 16.3% of its labour force. Collingwood and Bradford West Gwillimbury, however, had the highest proportion of workers employed in manufacturing at 20.3% and 21.7% respectively. Collingwood also had the highest proportion of workers employed in the accommodation and food services industry at 11.6%. Municipalities such as Orillia (9.3%), Wasaga Beach (8.3%), and Midland (8.1%) also had a significant portion of their labour force employed County of Simcoe Housing Needs Assessment and Recommendations on Policies and Programs - FINAL: April 2007 3 Schedule 1 Human Services Committee HS 07-068 Page5 in the accommodation and food services industry. Retail trade (as a percentage) was highest in the more urban centres of Barrie and Orillia at 14.0% and 14.4% respectively. Ramara also had a large proportion of its labour force in the retail trade sector at 14.1%. Notably, the municipalities of Wasaga Beach and Innisfil had a large proportion of their labour force employed in construction at 12.3% and 10.5% respectively. The municipalities of Springwater (9.0%), Bradford West Gwillimbury (9.9%), Severn (9.0%), and Tiny (9.8%) also had a significant percentage of their labour force employed in construction. • Growth in Manufacturing Putting Pressure on Demand for Skilled Trades Workers Key informants noted that the strength in the manufacturing industry is putting pressure on the supply of skilled trades. Further, wage discrepancies among local employers in the GTA have amplified this pressure and some skilled trades workers are choosing to commute to the GTA. • Diversity within Labour Market Growth Points to Need for Diverse Housing Supply Overall, Simcoe County is showing growth in industry sectors which tend to be higher paying (manufacturing and construction) as well as lower paying industry sectors such as retail trade and accommodation and food services. This growth points to a need for diversified housing to meet the housing needs of all employment and income levels. • Full-Time Employment Increased from 1996 to 2001 The number of full-time jobs showed a strong increase from 1996 and 2001. Part-time or part-year employment declined over the same time period. This is a positive trend for the County as full-time employment generally means higher wages and greater job security.
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