Andrei Shleifer
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When Does Behavioural Economics Really Matter?
When does behavioural economics really matter? Ian McAuley, University of Canberra and Centre for Policy Development (www.cpd.org.au) Paper to accompany presentation to Behavioural Economics stream at Australian Economic Forum, August 2010. Summary Behavioural economics integrates the formal study of psychology, including social psychology, into economics. Its empirical base helps policy makers in understanding how economic actors behave in response to incentives in market transactions and in response to policy interventions. This paper commences with a short description of how behavioural economics fits into the general discipline of economics. The next section outlines the development of behavioural economics, including its development from considerations of individual psychology into the fields of neurology, social psychology and anthropology. It covers developments in general terms; there are excellent and by now well-known detailed descriptions of the specific findings of behavioural economics. The final section examines seven contemporary public policy issues with suggestions on how behavioural economics may help develop sound policy. In some cases Australian policy advisers are already using the findings of behavioural economics to advantage. It matters most of the time In public policy there is nothing novel about behavioural economics, but for a long time it has tended to be ignored in formal texts. Like Molière’s Monsieur Jourdain who was surprised to find he had been speaking prose all his life, economists have long been guided by implicit knowledge of behavioural economics, particularly in macroeconomics. Keynes, for example, understood perfectly the “money illusion” – people’s tendency to think of money in nominal rather than real terms – in his solution to unemployment. -
Edward S. Shaw* Simon Kuznets Remarked in His Capital in The
Edward S. Shaw* Simon Kuznets remarked in his Capital in rate. There is physical wealth, its ownership The American Economy, " ... extrapolation of represented by an homogeneous financial asset inflationary pressures over the next thirty in the form of common stock or "equity," and years raises a specter of intolerable conse there is wealth in the form of real money bal quences.... "1 Fifteen of the thirty years are ances. Accumulation of physical and monetary over, and inflation has accelerated. The central wealth derives from a constant rate of saving concern of this paper is whether Kuznets' pre for the community. Inflation occurs because the diction of "intolerable consequences" for capital growth rate of nominal money exceeds the markets and capital accumulation is on track or growth rate of real money demanded. patently wrong. 2 The inflation is immaculate because its pace Monetary theory distinguishes between "im is constant and perfectly foreseen and because maculate" inflation, "clean" inflation, and the inflation tax on real money balances is com "dirty" inflation. It is the last of these that pensated precisely by a deposit-rate of interest Kuznets dreaded and that we have endured. The on money. It is fully anticipated, and it does not first section below deals very briefly with dif impose a relative penalty on the money form of ferences between the three styles of inflation. wealth. Money-wage rates rise faster than out The second section is a catalogue of ways in put prices in the degree that labor productivity which dirty inflation may obstruct and distort is growing. -
Samuelson's Dictum and the Stock Market
SAMUELSON’S DICTUM AND THE STOCK MARKET BY JEEMAN JUNG and ROBERT J. SHILLER COWLES FOUNDATION PAPER NO. 1183 COWLES FOUNDATION FOR RESEARCH IN ECONOMICS YALE UNIVERSITY Box 208281 New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8281 2006 http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/ SAMUELSON’S DICTUM AND THE STOCK MARKET JEEMAN JUNG and ROBERT J. SHILLER* Samuelson has offered the dictum that the stock market is ‘‘micro efficient’’ but ‘‘macro inefficient.’’ That is, the efficient markets hypothesis works much better for individual stocks than it does for the aggregate stock market. In this article, we review a strand of evidence in recent literature that supports Samuelson’s dictum and present one simple test, based on a regression and a simple scatter diagram, that vividly illus- trates the truth in Samuelson’s dictum for the U.S. stock market data since 1926. (JEL G14) I. INTRODUCTION dividends or earnings or cash flows) of indi- vidual firms than there is about future changes Paul A. Samuelson has argued that one would expect that the efficient markets hy- in the fundamentals of the aggregate stock market. Individual firms’ activities are highly pothesis should work better for individual diverse: Some have breakthrough discoveries stocks than for the stock market as a whole: or important new patents; others are in declin- Modern markets show considerable micro ing industries or have fundamental structural efficiency (for the reason that the minority who spot aberrations from micro efficiency can make problems. Hence some firms at some times money from those occurrences and, in doing so, may be well known to the market to have they tend to wipe out any persistent inefficiencies). -
Handicapping Economics’ ‘Baby Nobel,’ the Clark Medal - Real Time E
Handicapping Economics’ ‘Baby Nobel,’ the Clark Medal - Real Time E... http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/04/22/handicapping-economics-ba... More News, Quotes, Companies, Videos SEARCH Thursday, April 22, 2010 As of 4:16 PM EDT BLOGS U.S. Edition Today's Paper Video Blogs Journal Community Log In Home World U.S. Business Markets Tech Personal Finance Life & Style Opinion Careers Real Estate Small Business WSJ BLOGS Reserve Bank of India’s ‘Nirvana’ Rate Economic insight and analysis from The Wall Street Journal. APRIL 22, 2010, 4:04 PM ET Handicapping Economics’ ‘Baby Nobel,’ the Clark Medal Article Comments (1) REAL TIME ECONOMICS HOME PAGE » 1 of 3 4/22/2010 4:20 PM Handicapping Economics’ ‘Baby Nobel,’ the Clark Medal - Real Time E... http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/04/22/handicapping-economics-ba... Email Printer Friendly Permalink Share: facebook Text Size By Justin Lahart Friday, the American Economic Association will present the John Bates Clark medal, awarded to the nation’s most promising economist under the age of 40. The Clark is known as the “Baby Nobel,” and with good reason. Of the 30 economists who have won it, 12 have gone on to win the Nobel, including Paul Samuelson and Milton Friedman. The award was given biennially until last year, when the AEA decided to give it annually. Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist Esther Duflo, 37, is considered a frontrunner. The head of MIT’s Jameel Poverty Action Lab with Abhijit Banerjee, she’s been at the forefront of using randomized experiments to analyze development American Economic Association Most Popular programs. -
The Business Cycle and the Stock Market
-1- THE BUSINESS CYCLE AND THE STOCK MARKET by Andrei S leifer A.B., Harv d University (1982) SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY May 1986 Andrei Shleifer 1986 The author hereby grants to M.I.T. permission to reproduce and to distribute copies of this thesis document in whole or in part. Signature of author__ Department of Economics May 12, 1986 Certified by Peter A. Diamond / Thesis Supervisor Certified by Franklin M. Fisher / Thesis Supervisor Accepted by Richard S. Eckaus Chairman, Departmental Graduate Committee ARCHIVES MASSACHUSETT SIN!TiTUTE OF TCHNN N1'' JUN 1 3 198E LIBRA";. - - 2 ABSTRACT The three essays of this thesis concern the role of expectations in determining the allocation of resources, particularly in the macroecono- mic context. Specifically, all three papers are motivated by the propo- sition that private agents' beliefs are aggregated into stock market prices, which can therefore influence the allocation of investment. The first essay does not deal with financial markets explicitly, although it explores the role of animal spirits in determining invest- ment. The essay describes an artificial economy, in which firms in dif- ferent sectors make inventions at different times, but innovate simultaneously to take advantage of high aggregate demand. In turn, high demand results from simultaneous innovation in many sectors. The economy exhibits multiple cyclical equilibria, with entrepreneurs' expectations determining which equilibrium obtains. These equilibria are Pareto ranked, and the most profitable equilibrium need not be the most effi- cient. -
Restoring Rational Choice: the Challenge of Consumer Financial Regulation
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES RESTORING RATIONAL CHOICE: THE CHALLENGE OF CONSUMER FINANCIAL REGULATION John Y. Campbell Working Paper 22025 http://www.nber.org/papers/w22025 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 February 2016 This paper is the Ely Lecture delivered at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association on January 3, 2016. I thank the Sloan Foundation for financial support, and my coauthors Steffen Andersen, Cristian Badarinza, Laurent Calvet, Howell Jackson, Brigitte Madrian, Kasper Meisner Nielsen, Tarun Ramadorai, Benjamin Ranish, Paolo Sodini, and Peter Tufano for joint work that I draw upon here. I also thank Cristian Badarinza for his work with international survey data on household balance sheets, Laurent Bach, Laurent Calvet, and Paolo Sodini for sharing their results on Swedish wealth inequality, Ben Ranish for his analysis of Indian equity data, Annamaria Lusardi for her assistance with financial literacy survey data, Steven Bass, Sean Collins, Emily Gallagher, and Sarah Holden of ICI and Jack VanDerhei of EBRI for their assistance with data on US retirement savings, Eduardo Davila and Paul Rothstein for correspondence and discussions about behavioral welfare economics, and Daniel Fang for able research assistance. I have learned a great deal from my service on the Academic Research Council of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and from conversations with CFPB staff. Finally I gratefully acknowledge insightful comments from participants in the Sixth Miami Behavioral -
The Workshop on Digital Currency Economics and Policy Is Jointly Organised by the Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Resea
“The Workshop on Digital Currency Economics and Policy is jointly organised by the Asian Bureau of Finance and Economic Research (ABFER), the National University of Singapore (NUS) Business School and MAS. This Workshop, to be held in conjunction with the Singapore FinTech Festival 2018, aims to focus applied economic and financial research efforts on the implications of digital currencies for monetary policy and the financial system. It seeks to provide a platform for established academics in their mainstream areas of monetary and financial economics to apply their expertise to analysing the implications of digital currencies, and to encourage discussions on how the existing frameworks and paradigms of thinking about monetary and financial policies can be extended to incorporate this new technology-enabled development.” Competition amongst monies has a long history. Private or foreign money, if trusted, can serve as a medium of exchange, store of value and unit of account, alongside or even displacing, government-issued monies. Recent technological advancement has lowered the barriers to entry for users to create private digital instruments that behave like currencies, often without any issuer. Many of these have market prices (which reflect the value that holders assign to them) and are accepted by some merchants as payment for goods and services. Correspondingly, multiple private monies, called digital currencies, have emerged. While their economic significance is still debatable, the phenomenon raises many important monetary policy and regulatory issues. Digital monies can impact an economy, affect transaction arrangements and efficiency, and disrupt financial intermediation and related business models – especially in banking. They may modulate the relationship between traditional fiat money and price, savings and investment behaviour, and also expand avenues for illegal transactions. -
Trends in Factor Shares: Facts and Implications
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Karabarbounis, Loukas; Neiman, Brent Article Trends in factor shares: Facts and implications NBER Reporter Provided in Cooperation with: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, Mass. Suggested Citation: Karabarbounis, Loukas; Neiman, Brent (2017) : Trends in factor shares: Facts and implications, NBER Reporter, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, MA, Iss. 4, pp. 19-22 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/178760 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu systematically benefit firstborns and help 2 S. Black, P. Devereux, and K. Adolescent Behavior,” Economic Inquiry, Trends in Factor Shares: Facts and Implications explain their generally better outcomes. -
Econometrics As a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: on Lawrence R
Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics Erich Pinzón-Fuchs To cite this version: Erich Pinzón-Fuchs. Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics. 2016. halshs-01364809 HAL Id: halshs-01364809 https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01364809 Preprint submitted on 12 Sep 2016 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Documents de Travail du Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics Erich PINZÓN FUCHS 2014.80 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 boulevard de L'Hôpital, 75647 Paris Cedex 13 http://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/ ISSN : 1955-611X Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics Erich Pinzón Fuchs† October 2014 Abstract Lawrence R. Klein (1920-2013) played a major role in the construction and in the further dissemination of econometrics from the 1940s. Considered as one of the main developers and practitioners of macroeconometrics, Klein’s influence is reflected in his application of econometric modelling “to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies” for which he was awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel in 1980. -
Christopher Polk
Christopher Polk Department of Finance London School of Economics London WC2A 2AE United Kingdom +44 (0)20 7849 4917 phone +44 (0)20 7852 3580 fax [email protected] http://personal.lse.ac.uk/polk CURRENT POSITION London School of Economics: Professor of Finance, 2006-present Center for Economic and Policy Research: Research Fellow, 2009-present PREVIOUS ACADEMIC POSITIONS Head of Department, September 2017-August 2020 Journal of Finance Associate Editor, July 2012-August 2018 Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Visiting Professor of Finance, 2015-2016 Financial Markets Group (LSE Research Centre): Director, 2009-2015 Harvard University, Visiting Professor of Economics, 2008-2009 Kellogg School of Management: Assistant Professor of Finance, 1998-2006 EDUCATION Ph.D. in Finance, University of Chicago Graduate School of Business, 1998. Advisors: Eugene Fama (chair), John Cochrane, George Constantinides, Owen Lamont. B.S., Duke University, magna cum laude in physics and economics (with honors), 1990. HONORS AND FELLOWSHIPS Fama-DFA Prize: Best asset pricing paper in the Journal of Financial Economics, 2018 AQR Insight Award, Honorable Mention, 2014 IdR QUANTVALLEY /FdR Quantitative Management Initiative Research Award 2013 Europlace Institute of Finance Research Grant 2013 Q Group Research Award, 2012 Inquire Europe Research Award, 2012 Jensen Prize: Best corporate finance paper in the Journal of Financial Economics, 2002 Investment Analysts Society of Chicago Research Grant Award, 2002 Searle Fund Research Grant, 2002 Dean Jacobs Junior -
ANDREI SHLEIFER 1 March 2019
ANDREI SHLEIFER 1 March 2019 ANDREI SHLEIFER Department of Economics Harvard University M9 Littauer Center Cambridge, MA 02138 Date of Birth: February 20, 1961 Citizenship: U.S.A. Undergraduate Studies: Harvard, A.B., Math, 1982. Graduate Studies: MIT, Ph.D., May, 1986. Thesis Title: “The Business Cycle and the Stock Market” EMPLOYMENT: John L. Loeb Professor of Economics, Harvard University, 1991 - present. Professor of Finance and Business Economics, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, 1989 - 1990. Assistant Professor of Finance and Business Economics, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, 1987 - 1989. Assistant Professor of Economics, Princeton University, 1986 - 1987. OTHER AFFILIATIONS: Faculty Research Fellow and Research Associate, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1986- Associate and Advisory Editor, Journal of Financial Economics, 1988 - . Associate Editor, Journal of Finance, 1988 - 1991. Editor, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1989 - 1999, 2012 - Advisor, Government of Russia, 1991 - 1997. Principal, LSV Asset Management, 1994 - 2003. Editor, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2003 - 2008. ANDREI SHLEIFER 2 March 2019 AWARDS, FELLOWSHIPS, AND GRANTS: National Science Foundation Graduate Fellowship, 1983 - 1986. CRSP Distinguished Visiting Scholar, Graduate School of Business, The University of Chicago, March-June, 1986. Alfred P. Sloan Fellowship, 1990. National Science Foundation Grants, 1988 - 1989, 1990 - 1991, 19 94 - 1996, 1998 - 2000, 2001 - 2003. Presidential Young Investigator Award, 1989 - 1994. Bradley Foundation Grant, 1989, 1990, 1991 - 1992. Russell Sage Foundation Grant (with R. Vishny), 1988, 1991. Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Grant (with L. Summers), 1986, 1988 - 1990. Fellow, Econometric Society, 1993. Roger F. Murray Award of the Q-Group, 1994, and the Smith-Breeden Prize of the Journal of Finance for Distinguished paper, 1995, given to “Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk.” Member, U.S.-Israel Joint Economic Development Group, 1995 - 1997. -
Shleifer's Failure
Shleifer’s Failure THE FAILURE OF JUDGES AND THE RISE OF REGULATORS. By Andrei Shleifer. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press, 2012. 352 pages. $40.00. Reviewed by Jonathan Klick* I. Introduction Andrei Shleifer is undoubtedly among the world’s most important economists. By standard citation measures, no one else is anywhere close. For example, his nearly 19,000 citations in the RePEc rankings1 as of October 2012 place him ahead of Nobel Prize2 winners such as James Heckman (12,212),3 Joseph Stiglitz (11,431),4 and Robert Lucas (9,314).5 His work on corporate finance, behavioral finance, and transition economics earned him the American Economic Association’s prestigious John Bates Clark medal in 1999.6 Perhaps not even international scandal will keep Shleifer from taking his place among the Nobelists.7 Shleifer’s influence in legal scholarship is almost as large. With more than 1,000 Westlaw citations,8 Shleifer would compare favorably to most law and economics specialists in top U.S. law schools.9 Given all of this, the publication of Shleifer’s book The Failure of Judges and the Rise of Regulators10 as part of the MIT Press’s Walras-Pareto Lecture series is sure to be of interest to a wide range of legal scholars, students, and policy makers—and especially to those who do not have access to JSTOR11 and a * Professor of Law, University of Pennsylvania. 1. Top 5% Authors, as of October 2012, IDEAS, http://ideas.repec.org/top/top .person.nbcites.html. 2. Formally the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, NOBELPRIZE.ORG, http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics, but only pedants note this, such as bloggers who disagree with a given Nobelist’s positions.