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Introduction: the Great Unraveling: Argentina 1973-1991
Introduction: The Great Unraveling: Argentina 1973-1991 In spite of its enormous advance which the Republic has made within the last ten years, the most cautious critic would not hesitate to aver that Argentina has but just entered upon the threshold of her greatness. Percy F. Martin, Through Five Republics of South America, 19051 The truth is that Argentina is bankrupt – economically, politically and socially. Its institutions are dysfunctional, its government disreputable, its social cohesion unstuck. Ricardo Caballero and Rudiger Dornbusch, Financial Times, March 8 20022 By the end of the nineteenth century, Argentina’s economic future looked indeed bright. On the eve of World War I, the Argentine capital Buenos Aires proudly displayed its affluence and modernity in its big administrative buildings, extensive parks and an underground railway. European fashion and consumer goods were in high demand and Buenos Aires even attracted a sizeable intellectual and scientific community.3 By all measures of the time, Argentina could be regarded a modern country. Yet, at the beginning of the twenty-first century, Argentina is seen as the “sick man of Latin America”.4 The economic and political crisis, which Argentina experienced in 2001 and 2002, was arguably the worst since the country’s independence. Over the course of two years, output fell by more than 15 percent, the Argentine peso lost three-quarters of its value, and registered unemployment exceeded 25 percent while more than half of the population of the erstwhile rich country lived below the poverty line.5 1 Percy F. Martin, Through five republics (of South America) : a critical description of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay and Venezuela in 1905 (New York, 1906). -
International Borrowing and Macroeconomic Performance in Argentina
This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences Volume Author/Editor: Sebastian Edwards, editor Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-18497-8 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/edwa06-1 Conference Date: December 16-18, 2004 Publication Date: May 2007 Title: International Borrowing and Macroeconomic Performance in Argentina Author: Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, Linda L. Tesar URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c0156 7 International Borrowing and Macroeconomic Performance in Argentina Kathryn M. E. Dominguez and Linda L. Tesar 7.1 Introduction In the early 1990s Argentina was the darling of international capital markets and viewed by many as a model of reform for emerging markets. Early in his presidency, Carlos Menem embarked on a bold set of economic policies, including the adoption of a currency board that pegged the Ar- gentine peso to the dollar, a sweeping privatization program for state- owned enterprises, an overhaul of the banking system, and privatization of the public pension system. The business press marveled over the rapid turnaround in the Argentine economy. Although there were some concerns about the appropriateness and sustainability of the dollar anchor and whether the fiscal reforms were more rhetoric than reality, the policies ap- peared to have conquered inflation and set the country on a course of steady economic growth. By the end of the 1990s, however, Argentina’s situation had dramatically changed. The country had weathered the financial crises in Mexico and Asia, and, despite the volatility of capital flows, Argentina’s currency board remained intact and forecasts of future growth were relatively posi- tive. -
Thirty Years of Currency Crises in Argentina External Shocks Or Domestic Fragility?
Thirty Years of Currency Crises in Argentina External Shocks or Domestic Fragility? Graciela Kaminsky George Washington University and NBER Washington, DC 20052 Amine Mati International Monetary Fund Washington, DC 20431 Nada Choueiri International Monetary Fund Washington, DC 20431 This Version: October 2009 Abstract This paper examines Argentina’s currency crises from 1970 to 2001, with particular attention to the role of domestic and external factors. Using VAR estimations, we find that deteriorating domestic fundamentals matter. For example, at the core of the late 1980s crises was excessively loose monetary policy while a sharp output contration triggered the collapse of the currency board in January 2002. In contrast, adverse external shocks were at the heart of the 1995 crisis, with spillovers from the Mexican crisis and high world interest rates being key sources of financial distress. JEL classification codes: F30, F32, F33, F34, F36 Keywords: currency crises, financial contagion, capital inflows. This paper was written for the Economía 18th Panel Meeting- LACEA, IMPA - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, November 21, 2008. We thank Gastón Gelos, Roberto Rigobon, Federico Sturzenegger, Carlos Winograd, and participants at the Economia Meeting for helpful comments. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management I. Introduction Argentina has had an active presence in international capital markets since its independence in the early 19th century. Participation has been quite volatile though. In the early 1800s, in the midst of the lending boom fueled by the end of the Napoleonic wars, Argentina as well as many countries in Latin America were able to issue bonds in London to finance their wars of independence and the civil wars that followed. -
Argentina and the International Monetary Fund Through Economic Crisis and Recovery
FROM PARTNERSHIP TO COLLAPSE: ARGENTINA AND THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND THROUGH ECONOMIC CRISIS AND RECOVERY By MARY ELAINE MITCHELL WATERS A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2007 1 © 2007 Mary Elaine Mitchell Waters 2 To my husband and family, whose encouragement and support throughout the years has made all my endeavors possible 3 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I thank the members of my thesis committee for their time, advice and guidance during the thesis process. I am particularly grateful to my supervisory committee chair, Dr. Terry McCoy for his enthusiastic support of the topic and for his constructive criticism. Dr. Ana Margheritis provided me with invaluable insight into the realities of Argentine political economy, for which I am extremely grateful. I thank Dr. Andy Naranjo for being so generous with his time and assistance. My graduate studies at the University of Florida have been challenging and rewarding. I thank my professors, who challenged me to think critically about the issues facing Latin America in the 21st century. I also wish to thank my fellow students in the Latin American Studies department for raising the level of debate about important Latin American issues. My academic and personal accomplishments could not have been possible without the love and support of my family. I owe a debt of gratitude to my parents, who have fostered my interest in Latin America and encouraged me to pursue my passions and my goals. Finally, I thank my husband for his unconditional love and encouragement over the years, especially during the thesis process. -
The Impact of Radical Economic Reforms on the Outward Orientation of Argentine and Mendozan Firms, –*
Beneath the Surface: The Impact of Radical Economic Reforms on the Outward Orientation of Argentine and Mendozan Firms, –* OMAR N. TOULAN MAURO F. GUILLE; N Abstract. The main argument of this article is that in order to assess accurately the impact of a market liberalisation programme such as the one Argentina has undergone, one must look beneath the aggregate statistics and analyse underlying changes in critical market structure and organisational variables. While aggregate trade figures imply that the country has been successful at reintegrating itself into the world economy, two underlying trends reveal potential threats to the country’s long-term development. These trends relate to the level of value added being created in the country, particularly with regard to its exports, and to changes in the composition of its trading partners. Despite four decades of relative decline, Argentina is still the third largest economy in Latin America and ranks at the top of the region in terms of per capita income and most standard indicators of social development. Furthermore, since it has been the second largest destination of " foreign direct investment (FDI) in the region after Mexico. In spite of the impact of the recent economic reforms, however, Argentina still has one of the largest government sectors, highest average trade tariffs, and least # outward-oriented economies in the region. And while Argentina was $ home to some of the first multinationals in any developing country, Brazil and Mexico currently have more firms both in Latin America’s Top ranking and on the United Nation’s list of the largest multinationals headquartered outside the Triad (USA, Japan, European Union) % economies. -
Dollarization in Argentina
DOLLARIZATION IN ARGENTINA Lily I. Daniel1 Duke University Durham, NC April, 2001 1 Lily I. Daniel, Trinity College, Class of 2001, graduated in May with a BS in Economics and a BA in Spanish. Lily researched this topic in Argentina with funding from the Ford Foundation through the Duke Economics Department. While in Argentina, she also worked for the Foreign Commercial Service in the US Embassy in Buenos Aires. Next year Lily will work at Goldman Sachs & Co in New York City in the technology investment banking group. She plans to attend business school in the future. Acknowledgement Thank you to Professor Kent Kimbrough of the Duke Economics Department for advising me while abroad researching and while writing this senior economics thesis. 2 Table of Contents Introduction 4 Economic Historical Overview 9 Relevant Literature 20 Model Specification 23 Data 32 Estimated Model Specification 34 Section One 36 Section Two 41 Conclusions 48 Appendix 51 Model I 51 Model II 65 Bibliography 81 3 Introduction Argentina, among many other Latin American countries, has increased its use of foreign currency due to its history of high and variable inflation rates. Argentine citizens substitute foreign currency, in particular the dollar, for their domestic currency, the peso. This is due to the high opportunity cost of holding domestic currency, thereby motivating citizens to use foreign currency for transactions and savings. When Argentines loose confidence in the stability of their currency, they use foreign currency in an effort to avoid the risk of possible inflation. It was reported that in the early nineties dollars were being used in Argentina for “transactions in real estate and almost all big ticket items (were) conducted in US currency.”2 In a study by Steven Kamin and Neil Ericsson, entitled Dollarization in Argentina, the authors present a new method for measuring dollarization in Argentina by estimating the stock of US currency circulating. -
C:\Working Papers\11353.Wpd
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES INTERNATIONAL BORROWING AND MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN ARGENTINA Kathryn M.E. Dominguez Linda L. Tesar Working Paper 11353 http://www.nber.org/papers/w11353 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 May 2005 Prepared for the NBER conference on International Capital Flows, December 17-18, 2004 in Santa Barbara, California. Forthcoming in an NBER book to be published by the University of Chicago Press. We thank Ron Alquist for excellent research assistance. We are grateful for comments and suggestions from Nicolas Magud, Juan Carlos Hallak, Alan Taylor, Martin Feldstein, Barry Eichengreen, Charlie Calomiris, and Sebastian Edwards. The views expressed in this document are the authors’ and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. ©2005 by Kathryn M.E. Dominguez and Linda L. Tesar. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. International Borrowing and Macroeconomic Performance in Argentina Kathryn M.E. Dominguez and Linda L. Tesar NBER Working Paper No. 11353 May 2005 JEL No. O54, F3, F21, F42 ABSTRACT This paper provides an overview of the major economic events in Argentina from the adoption of the convertibility plan in 1991 to the collapse of the exchange rate regime in 2001. We focus on the relationship between the credibility of the currency board and capital flows, and the inescapable link between fiscal and monetary policy. -
1 ARGENTINA CASE STUDY by MARIA PENADES INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY & MANAGEMENT Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requ
1 ARGENTINA CASE STUDY BY MARIA PENADES INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGY & MANAGEMENT Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the deGree of Master in Industrial TechnoloGy and Operations in the Industrial TechnoloGy & Management department of the Illinois Institute of TechnoloGy Supervised by Kamyar Jabbari Adviser Chicago, Illinois 04/24/2017 1 2 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1 2. AGRICULTURE ........................................................................................................... 4 2.1. Agriculture’s role in ArGentina .................................................................................... 4 2.2. ArGentine Agriculture specialization ........................................................................... 5 2.3. ArGentina’s policies towards aGriculture .................................................................... 7 3. MANUFACTURING .................................................................................................. 12 3.1. Agro export model and the First Phase of Industrialization (1880-1930) ................. 12 3.2. Second Phase; Juan Peron’s Import Substitution (1930-late 1970s) ........................ 15 3.2.1. Import substitution model: First sub-staGe (1930-1955) ................................. 16 3.2.2. Import substitution model: Second sub-staGe (1955-1976) ............................. 19 3.3. Military dictatorship and the Third Phase of Industrialization (1976-1990) ............ -
ECONOMIC POLICY and the TRANSITION to DEMOCRACY Economic Policy and the Transition to Democracy the Latin American Experience
ECONOMIC POLICY AND THE TRANSITION TO DEMOCRACY Economic Policy and the Transition to Democracy The Latin American Experience Edited by Juan Antonio Morales Professor of Economics and Econometrics Catholic University of Bolivia and Gary McMahon Senior Specialist International Development Research Centre Ottawa, Canada INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH CENTRE Editorial matter and selection © Juan Antonio Morales and Gary McMahon 1996 Chapters 1-7 © Macmillan Press Ltd. 1996 Published in the United Kingdom in 1996 by Macmillan Press Ltd. Published in Canada in 1996 by the International Development Research Centre PO Box 8500 Ottawa, Canada KIG 3H9 Canadian Cataloguing in Publication Data Morales J. A. McMahon, G. Economic policy and the transition to democracy : the Latin American experience, Ottawa, ON, IDRC ; Houndmills, Macmillan Press Ltd 1996. 000p.: ill. /Economic policy/,/democratization/./economic stabilization/,/economic reform/,/economic administration/,/Latin America/-/ Bol iv i a/,/Argentina/, /Brazil/,/Uruguay/,/Paraguay/,/Chile/,/case studies/. UDC: 338.2:321.7(8) ISBN 0-88936-747-7 (hc) ISBN 0-88936-754--X (pb) I would like to dedicate this book to all of my friends in South America who have kept up the intellectual battle through the bad as well as the good years and, incidentally, have also made my job so much more enjoyable. GARY MCMAHON Contents List of Tables x Notes on the Contributors xii Foreword xiv List of Abbreviations xv Map of Latin America xvii 1 Economic Policy after the Transition to Democracy: A Synthesis -
Borders for Migrants from Bordering Countries
e-ISSN 2395-9134 Estudios Fronterizos, vol. 21, 2020, e060 https://doi.org/10.21670/ref.2018060 Articles Constitution of category “false tourist”, in Argentina. “Tailored” borders for migrants from bordering countries Constitución de la categoría “falso turista” en Argentina. Fronteras “a medida” de migrantes de países limítrofes Angélica Alvites Baiaderaa* https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0226-4184 a Universidad Nacional de Villa María, Villa María, Argentina, e-mail: [email protected] Abstract The following article analyzes the constitution and development of the false tourist category (ft), as part of the border control devices, within the frame- work of the first constitutionally elected government (1983-1989) in Ar- Received on March 9, 2020. gentina. To respond to this concern, a national and regional-international organizations documentary corpus are interpreted through a qualitative meth- Accepted on September 29, 2020. odology. The main conclusions reached include that the ft is part of differ- Published on November 5, 2020. ential border management. This an oriented and selective surveillance is formu- lated to reject foreigners. The foreigners are qualified as ft, according to clothing, income, length of stay, place of origin, among other requirements. *Corresponding author: Angé- Classifying the subjects as ft, and defining their rejection, seeks to reduce lica Alvites Baiadera. E-mail: the illegal potentials/futures down permanence (“undocumented” immigrants) [email protected]; who want to work, access the health and/or education system in Argentina. [email protected] Keywords: false tourist, borders, migrants from bordering countries, border con- trol, reject. Resumen ORIGINAL ARTICLE LANGUAGE: SPANISH El siguiente artículo analiza la constitución y desarrollo de la categoría fal- so turista (ft), como parte de los dispositivos de control fronterizo, en el mar- co del primer gobierno elegido constitucionalmente (1983-1989) en Argenti- na. -
The Sorrows of Carmencita
The Sorrows of Carmencita MAURICIO ROJAS * The Sorrows of Carmencita Argentina’s crisis in a historical perspective © The author and AB Timbro Timbro Förlag AB 2002 Tel: +46 (0)8-587 898 00 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: www.timbro.se ENGLISH TRANSLATION: Roger G. Tanner COVER DESIGN AND TYPOGRAPHY: Formgivningsverket COVER PHOTO: Anthony Saint James/Gettys Images AUTHOR PORTRAIT: Pontus Johansson ORIGINATION: Ateljé Typsnittet L&R AB PRINTING: Kristianstads Boktryckeri AB, Kristianstad 2002 ISBN 91-7566-529-8 Para Mónica, por todo aquello que las palabras no pueden decir. Contents Preface 9 Introduction 13 Carmencita dances for a long summer 17 The history of Argentine prosperity 17 • Colonial Argentina 17 •The saga of Argentine prosperity 20 • Explaining Argentina’s success 24 • All that glitters is not gold 30 • Problems of industrial development 33 • The war and the gay twenties 43 The sorrows of Carmencita 49 Argentina’s odyssey from riches to rags 49 • The collapse of the export economy 50 • In the colonel’s arms 57 • Perón in power 63 • Towards the abyss 76 • The abyss 87 Carmencita’s last tango? 97 Alfonsín 98 • The man from La Rioja 103 • Argentina’s indian summer 110 • The other side of the coin 113 • Back to the edge of the abyss 118 • Carmencita’s last tango? 135 Bibliography 139 PREFACE This book is a long reply to those wishing to put down the tragic problems of Argentina to liberal ideas and economic liberty. Stockholm, April 2002 Mauricio Rojas 9 Carmencita, little friend, steer well clear of wealthy men! Happiness isn’t just oxen and cows, and you will never ever buy it with money. -
Monetary Policy in Argentina: from the Inflation of the 1970S to the Default of the New Millennium
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Ferrandino, Vittoria; Sgro, Valentina Working Paper Monetary policy in Argentina: From the inflation of the 1970s to the default of the new millennium eabh Papers, No. 15-03 Provided in Cooperation with: The European Association for Banking and Financial History (EABH) e.V., Frankfurt a.M. Suggested Citation: Ferrandino, Vittoria; Sgro, Valentina (2015) : Monetary policy in Argentina: From the inflation of the 1970s to the default of the new millennium, eabh Papers, No. 15-03, The European Association for Banking and Financial History (EABH), Frankfurt a. M. This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/121744 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.