Israel and the Middle East News Update

Tuesday, July 30

Headlines:

• Israel Discuses Plans to Build Palestinian Housing in Area C • Right in Uproar over Netanyahu’s Palestinian Building Plan • Canadian court: Settlement Wines Cannot be Labeled ‘Made in Israel’ • Israel Expanding Attacks Against Iranians in Syria and Iraq • Israel, US working to upgrade UNIFIL's mandate to weaken Hezbollah • Likud Doubles Budget to Place Hidden Cameras in Arab Polling Stations • Top UNRWA Officials Accused of ‘Serious Ethical Abuses’

Commentary:

• Ha’aretz: “Israel’s Parties Are Contracting to Bring About Netanyahu’s Downfall” - By Anshel Pfeffer, commentator at Ha’aretz • Al Monitor: “Can Netanyahu Split Blue and White?” - By Yossi Beilin, Columnist at Al Monitor

S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 The Hon. Robert Wexler, President ● Yoni Komorov, Editor ● Yehuda Greenfield-Gilat, Associate Editor

News Excerpts July 30, 2019 Ha’aretz Israel Discuses Plans to Build Palestinian Housing in Area C The security cabinet has discussed plans in recent days to construct both Israeli and Palestinian housing in Area C of the West Bank, public broadcasting corporation Kan reported Monday night. It is unclear whether the plans for construction would be for new units or to legalize existing illegal structures however, no official decisions on the plans have been made. Sources familiar with the matter told Haaretz that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's initiative for discussion included 700 Palestinian units and 6,000 Jewish settlement units which are currently in the process of approval. In the coming days, Jared Kushner, is expected to arrive in Israel to discuss the economic chapter of his Middle East peace plan. Political sources believe that the relatively unusual discussion of Palestinian construction in Area C could be due to American pressure. See also, “PM said to float plan for Palestinian building permits in West Bank’s Area C” (TOI)

Jerusalem Post Right in Uproar over Netanyahu’s Palestinian Building Plan The Israeli right is in an uproar over a report that Prime Minister Netanyahu held a security cabinet meeting to promote a Palestinian building plan for Area C in advance of a visit by US envoy Jared Kushner. “If it’s true that this is an American demand, then we expect our government to say loud and clear - enough!” Gush Etzion Regional Council head Shlomo Neeman said. The prime minister “must stop the delusional demands of our great friend [US President Donald Trump]” who, if he is a friend, would understand. Neeman called for the government to annex Area C of the West Bank, rather than paving the way for Palestinian development there. MK Ofir Sofer (United Right) accused Netanyahu of abetting the Palestinian Authority take-over of Area C with the financial support of the European Union. Sofer called on right-wing voters to prevent the prime minister from moving to the left of the political map after the September 17th election by supporting his party at the polls.“We need to be as strong as possible,” Sofer said.

Times of Israel Canadian court: Settlement Wines Cannot be Labeled ‘Made in Israel’ Canada’s Federal Court on Monday ruled that wines produced by Israelis in the West Bank can no longer be labeled as “Made in Israel.” Challenging a previous decision by the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, Judge Anne L. Mactavish determined that labels describing wines made in the settlements as Israeli products are “false, misleading and deceptive.” In her ruling, she did not take a position on how exactly such wines should be labeled, saying this was for the Canadian Food Inspection Agency to decide. Mactavish also noted that settlements are not considered part of the State of Israel, as Canada does not recognize Israeli sovereignty beyond the pre-1967 borders. While the judge’s decision is legal and not political in nature, it could potentially strain otherwise strong ties between Jerusalem and Ottawa.In 2015, the European Union said goods produced in the settlements must not be labeled as made in Israel. Many senior officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, denounced the union for the move, suggesting that it was comparable to the Nazi boycott of Jewish goods before World War II. See also, “Canadian federal court: ‘Misleading’ to label West Bank wine ‘Products of Israel’(JNS)

Jerusalem Post Israel Expanding Attacks Against Iranians in Syria and Iraq Israel expanded attacks on Iranian targets in Syria and Iraq in the past month, hitting two Iraqi bases and a strategic area in southern Syria in July, the London-based Saudi daily Al Sharq Al Awsat reported on Tuesday. The first attack happened on July 19 at a base in Amreli in the Saladin province of Iraq. The attack had been blamed on Israel at the time, and Al Sharq Al Awsat reported that "diplomatic sources" confirmed this to be true, specifying that the attack was carried out by an Israeli F-35. Al- Arabiya reported that Iranian-made ballistic missiles were transported to the base shortly before via trucks used to transport refrigerated food. The attacker was unspecified at the time, and the US denied any involvement. Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah members were killed in the air strike, according to Al-Arabiya. The Iranian-backed al-Hashd ash-Sha'abi (Popular Mobilization Forces - PMF) denied that any Iranians had been killed in the attack, according to Fars. See also, “Netanyahu Releases Video, Hints of Bombing Iraq” (Al Sharq Al Awsat)

Jerusalem Post Israel, US working to upgrade UNIFIL's mandate to weaken Hezbollah Israel and the United States are jointly working to have the United Nations Security Council to upgrade the mandate of the international peacekeeping force based in southern Lebanon, providing it with greater authority in an effort to weaken Hezbollah. Israel Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon told The Jerusalem Post that Israel is working with the US to upgrade UNIFIL’s mandate, specifically to give it the ability to visit and inspect any area in southern Lebanon. Under the existing mandate, UNIFIL cannot enter villages and urban areas unless it first coordinates such visits with the Lebanese army.

Times of Israel Likud Doubles Budget to Place Hidden Cameras in Arab Polling Stations The Likud party has doubled its budget for a surveillance operation targeting balloting stations in Arab towns on election day in September, expanding a program critics have said is being used as a form of voter intimidation to keep Arabs from the polls. In the last election in April, the Likud party armed 1,200 of its polling committee representatives with hidden cameras and placed them at polling stations throughout Arab communities across the country. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s party will now pump roughly NIS 2 million into the program, a source with knowledge of the operation confirmed to The Times of Israel. See also, “Netanyahu's Party Places 1,200 Hidden Cameras in Arab Polling Sites” (Ha’aretz)

Jerusalem post Top UNRWA Officials Accused of ‘Serious Ethical Abuses’ An internal ethics report has alleged mismanagement and abuses of authority at the highest levels of the UN agency for Palestinian refugees even as the organization faced an unprecedented crisis after US funding cuts. The allegations included in the confidential report by the agency’s ethics department are now being scrutinized by UN investigators. The agency — the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) — said it is cooperating fully with the investigation and that it cannot comment in detail because the probe is ongoing. AFP has obtained a copy of the report, which describes “credible and corroborated” allegations of serious ethical abuses, including involving UNRWA’s top official, Commissioner-General Pierre Krahenbuhl. It says the allegations include senior management engaging in “sexual misconduct, nepotism, retaliation, discrimination and other abuses of authority, for personal gain, to suppress legitimate dissent, and to otherwise achieve their personal objectives.”

Ha’aretz– July 30, 2019 Israel’s Parties Are Contracting to Bring About Netanyahu’s Downfall By Anshel Pfeffer, commentator at Ha’aretz • As things stand, the next Knesset will feature the smallest number of parties in Israel’s history. There are currently only nine parties with a realistic chance of crossing the electoral threshold on September 17. And if Labor leader Amir Peretz changes his mind before midnight on Thursday — the deadline for handing the party slates to the Central Elections Committee — and decides to join forces with Democratic Union (or if, as some now fear, Peretz’s party fails to cross the 3.25 percent threshold), we’ll only have eight parties in the 22nd Knesset. • Over the last seven decades, the Knesset has numbered, on average, 12 elected parties (not including the inevitable midterm splits and breakaways). Some had as many as 15, but the lowest until now was 10 (on three separate occasions). The short-lived, outgoing Knesset had 11 parties. This isn’t just meaningless statistics or a result of the threshold being raised three times since 1992. On the eve of the coming election, Israel’s politics is contracting, bracing itself for a cathartic event. • The contractions are happening in almost every part of the body politic. Let’s start with the all- too-often overlooked Arab parties. On Sunday night, the central committee of the Arab nationalist party Balad voted 26-1 to run with the three other Arab parties that comprised the Joint List of 2015. Balad’s hesitancy was due to a long list of internal and personal issues, but ultimately the decision partly came down to what one senior party member calls “the chance of finally getting rid of Netanyahu.” • To those aware of Balad and its sister parties’ politics, this may sound like a strange motive. After all, it was only three months ago, after the April election, that the Arab parties refused to endorse either Benjamin Netanyahu or Benny Gantz. (Neither politician is willing to accept them in his governing coalition.) But members in all four Arab parties acknowledge that this election could be different. • There is no love lost for the supercilious Gantz. But if the balance in the new Knesset gives them the opportunity to deny Netanyahu a mandate, a wary endorsement of Gantz is not out of the question. This could mean a hitherto unthinkable scenario in which the Arab leaders and their mortal enemy, Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman, both endorse the same candidate to form a government. • An electoral pact between left-wing Meretz and Ehud Barak’s Democratic Israel party would have seemed equally unthinkable only a few weeks ago. And on Sunday, as Meretz’s convention debated it, member after member got up to lambaste Barak, reminding colleagues of how he had coined the phrase “We have no [Palestinian] partner,” his unabashed capitalism and dubious ties to accused sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. They then voted overwhelmingly in favor of the alliance.“This won’t be a normal election,” says a senior Meretz member. “We’re not merging Meretz with Barak, just the candidates’ slate, because we have an opportunity to finally replace this government — and yes, even if it means sitting with Lieberman, you can’t rule that out.” • Further down the political map, you have the rather bizarre Labor-Gesher hookup, between trade unionist Peretz and Orli Levi-Abekasis, the Likud princess and three-term Yisrael Beiteinu 4

lawmaker. Whether it will attract right-wing voters, as Peretz promises, is highly doubtful. But it certainly broadcasts an openness to new political combinations both before and after the election. • Merger fever is rife on the right, too, with Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu — after two elections as an independent center-right party — being subsumed into Likud. Why did Kahlon go back to the party he had previously abandoned in disgust at Netanyahu’s personal machinations and social policies? The obvious reason is that his dwindling support meant he could no longer run independently. But he could have cut a deal with Kahol Lavan or Labor. Instead, he rejoined Netanyahu, because he reckons this may be the best time to return if he wants to be part of Likud’s leadership in the post-Bibi future. This way, no one can blame him for disloyalty. • Yet another merger is taking place right now on the far right of Israeli politics, after the religious Zionists — unbelievably for them — agreed to go into the election with a secular woman, Ayelet Shaked, atop their ticket. Not only is the alliance of Shaked’s Hayamin Hehadash and the Union of Right-Wing Parties taking place against Netanyahu’s express wishes; Shaked and her political partner, Naftali Bennett, have refused to commit themselves to endorsing Bibi after the election. • Only three of the nine parties likely to feature in the next Knesset haven’t merged in recent weeks: the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties, and Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu. While Shas and UTJ remain Netanyahu’s most staunch supporters outside of his own party, Lieberman is publicly promising to endorse whichever candidate will form a “broad coalition” without the Haredim, including Gantz. Privately, he is promising to engineer Netanyahu’s downfall. • Lieberman’s decision two months ago not to join Netanyahu’s coalition, triggering 2019’s second election, has set a train of events in motion. Not one of the polls conducted in the last five weeks has given Netanyahu a chance of forming a right-wing/religious coalition without Lieberman. If that is indeed the outcome on September 17, it will be a cathartic moment for Israeli politics — after which any possible permutation of endorsements to the president, and the most bizarre coalition frameworks, are possible. The parties are contracting, uniting and maximizing their options in preparation for that moment.

Summary: Only three of the nine parties likely to feature in the next Knesset haven’t merged in recent weeks: the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties, and Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu. While Shas and UTJ remain Netanyahu’s most staunch

supporters outside of his own party, Lieberman is publicly promising to endorse whichever candidate will form a “broad coalition” without the Haredim, including Gantz. Privately, he is promising to engineer Netanyahu’s downfall. Lieberman’s decision two months ago not to join Netanyahu’s coalition, triggering 2019’s second election, has set a train of events in motion. Not one of the polls conducted in the last five weeks has given Netanyahu a chance of forming a right-wing/religious coalition without Lieberman. If that is indeed the outcome on September 17, it will be a cathartic moment for Israeli politics —

after which any possible permutation of endorsements to the president, and the most bizarre coalition frameworks, are possible. The parties are contracting, uniting and maximizing their options in preparation for that moment.

Al Monitor – July 30, 2019 Can Netanyahu Split Blue and White? By Yossi Beilin, Columnist at Al Monitor • Despite the political mergers already finalized and those that might yet be made before the Aug. 1 deadline to submit candidate lists for the next Knesset, the center-right and the center-left blocs still appear to be gridlocked far from taking 60 of the parliament's 120 seats. While Benjamin Netanyahu takes pride in being Israel's longest-serving prime minister, the death knell for his political career could well be the decision by Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman not to join a coalition headed by him, unless part of a national unity government. • Netanyahu’s experience gives him a certain advantage over all the other candidates. He meddles in the affairs of the right-wing parties, encouraging this merger and discouraging that one. In some cases, his considerations are entirely mathematical, such as who won't pass the four-seat electoral threshold and thereby hamper the right’s chances of forming a new government. Other considerations involve whether his wife and son love or hate prospective candidates. That said, all Netanyahu's calculations really do is bring him back to square one: If Liberman continues to hold his current line, it will be impossible to form a right-wing government. • Since the founding of Blue and White ahead of the election held in April for the 21st Knesset, the most practical option would appear to be the formation of a unity government, but this means that Netanyahu would have to agree to the Likud recommending a candidate other than himself to form the next government, unless Blue and White wins more seats than the right, in which case President Reuven Rivlin would assign the task to Blue and White Chair Benny Gantz. Another round of elections is out of the question. The September election was the last trick in the magician’s hat, and it will be impossible to get a parliamentary majority to perform another suicide. • When examining the state of the Knesset, however, it turns out that there is a small window of hope for Netanyahu. It can be found across the aisle, among the 35 Blue and White Knesset members. When Blue and White submitted its list for the 21st Knesset, one of its leaders, Yair Lapid, was asked why there were no woman among the party’s leadership. In a moment of candor, Lapid confessed that decision-making about who would appear on the list had been a rushed affair. Three generals — Gantz, Moshe Ya’alon and Gabi Ashkenazi — sat with him for hours to discuss a long list of issues. It was only at the very last minute, just before the press conference at which they revealed their list, that they actually discussed Knesset candidates. • The result was very limited representation for women, the absence of non-Jewish candidates and younger candidates ending up on the far end of the list. Blue and White leaders did not bother to amend the list after the April 9 election, thus denying those at the bottom the opportunity to move up for the September balloting. This indicates that they have not attached any real importance to anyone without a leadership position. Netanyahu understands this well. As far as he is concerned, the most important thing is to figure out who among those candidates is least committed to the collective, is not turned off by the Likud or by him personally and would be willing to quit the party, form a new Knesset faction or join a coalition headed by him, and vote against lifting his immunity.

• A 1991 law stipulates that for a group of renegade legislators to be considered an independent Knesset faction, they must constitute at least one-third of their party of origin. Given this, the only way for legislators leaving Blue and White to receive government posts and compete for seats on a Knesset list is if one-third of the party’s elected members decide to quit. In practice, Netanyahu could exploit an amendment to that law. As it turns out, seven people, less than one- third of the Knesset faction, would be enough for Netanyahu. Why seven? • When Netanyahu was reelected prime minister a second time, in 2009, he wanted to bring Kadima, headed by Tzipi Livni, into his new coalition. At the time, Kadima had won 29 seats, compared to 28 for the Likud. Livni rejected his offer. Upon realizing that he would have a hard time convincing one-third of the members from her faction to join him, Netanyahu introduced new legislation making it possible to quit a party with just seven Knesset members leaving, even if they do not constitute one-third of the party. At the time, he found only six Knesset members willing to join him, so the party did not split. Nevertheless, the amendment remains in place. • One senior Likud member told Al-Monitor that Netanyahu believes that for now, there will be no significant movement of votes from the left to the right and that his engagement in efforts to prevent Ayelet Shaked, the newly elected leader of the New Right, from heading a merger of right-wing parties was more for personal reasons than political calculations. The most important thing for Netanyahu is to ensure that he has a safety net of at least seven Blue and White Knesset members. In short, after the September election, even if Gantz and his colleagues refuse to join a unity government headed by Netanyahu or in rotation with him, he can turn to the seven “renegades” and give them the kinds of jobs they could not dream of getting in a Blue and White government or one with Blue and White as a partner. • Netanyahu is known to be very generous when it comes to encouraging Knesset members to quit their parties. He gave Atzmaut, formed in 2011 by Ehud Barak with five Knesset members who quit the Labor Party, four (!) ministries, with Barak receiving the coveted Defense Ministry. The remaining Atzmaut member, Einat Wilf, was appointed chair of the Knesset’s Education Committee. • Past experience shows that this pattern could repeat itself. Netanyahu sees that his best chance for survival lies across the aisle. He is occasionally right too when a situation that seems unpredictable and even illogical becomes a matter of course all because of an offer that “can’t be refused.” That is what he's planning. With all eyes focused on party mergers and withdrawals, he has his eye on the rival camp. • A significant part of the Blue and White leadership consists of political novices. Some of them are unaware of this option, while the others don’t know what to do to stop it. Gantz and his colleagues must take this into consideration. Netanyahu is studying every name on their Knesset list, so they must also take a serious look at the dozens of people they suddenly propelled from obscurity into the Knesset, hold talks with each of them, pay attention to what they want and assure them that they will get twice as much attention after the election. • This is the soft underbelly that will appear after the next election. If Blue and White fails to close ranks, what might happen once the results are announced will be very different from all the obvious scenarios that the best pundits are repeating ad nauseam.

Summary: Netanyahu is known to be very generous when it comes to encouraging Knesset members to quit their parties. He gave Atzmaut, formed in 2011 by Ehud Barak with five Knesset members who quit the Labor Party, four (!) ministries, with Barak receiving the coveted Defense Ministry. The remaining Atzmaut member, Einat Wilf, was appointed chair of the Knesset’s Education Committee. Past experience shows that this pattern could repeat itself. Netanyahu sees that his best chance for survival lies across the aisle. He is occasionally right too when a situation that seems unpredictable and even illogical becomes a matter of course all because of an offer that “can’t be refused.” That is what he's planning. With all eyes focused on party mergers and withdrawals, he has his eye on the rival camp. A significant part of the Blue and White leadership consists of political novices. Some of them are unaware of this option, while the others don’t know what to do to stop it. Gantz and his colleagues must take this into consideration. Netanyahu is studying every name on their Knesset list, so they must also take a serious look at the dozens of people they suddenly propelled from obscurity into the Knesset, hold talks with each of them, pay attention to what they want and assure them that they will get twice as much attention after the election.