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2020 Electric Integrated Resource Plan

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2020 Electric Integrated Resource Plan 2020 Electric Integrated Resource Plan Safe Harbor Statement This document contains forward-looking statements. Such statements are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and other factors, most of which are beyond the Company’s control, and many of which could have a significant impact on the Company’s operations, results of operations and financial condition, and could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. For a further discussion of these factors and other important factors, please refer to the Company’s reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The forward- looking statements contained in this document speak only as of the date hereof. The Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement or statements to reflect events or circumstances that occur after the date on which such statement is made or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. New risks, uncertainties and other factors emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for management to predict all of such factors, nor can it assess the impact of each such factor on the Company’s business or the extent to which any such factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward- looking statement. Production Credits Primary Electric IRP Team Name Title Contribution Clint Kalich Mgr. of Resource Planning & Analysis IRP Core Team James Gall IRP Manager IRP Core Team John Lyons Sr. Policy Analyst IRP Core Team Grant Forsyth Chief Economist Load Forecast Ryan Finesilver Mgr. of Energy Efficiency, Planning & Analysis Energy Efficiency Leona Haley Energy Efficiency Program Manager Demand Response Electric IRP Contributors Name Title Contribution Thomas Dempsey Mgr. Thermal Operations and Maintenance Resource Options Tom Pardee Natural Gas Planning Manager Natural Gas Planning Darrell Soyars Mgr. Corporate Environmental Compliance Environmental Xin Shane Sr. Power Supply Analyst Ancillary Services Scott Kinney Director of Power Supply Power Supply Tom Lienhard Chief Energy Efficiency Engineer Energy Efficiency Damon Fisher Principle Engineer Distribution Planning Randy Gnaedinger Transmission Contracts Analyst Transmission Availability John Gross Mgr. of System Planning Transmission Planning Garrett Brown Regulatory Policy Analyst Regulatory Annie Gannon Communications Manager Communications Contact contributors via email by placing their names in this email address format: [email protected] 2020 Electric IRP Introduction Avista has a 130-year tradition of innovation and a commitment to providing safe, reliable, low-cost, clean energy to our customers. We meet this commitment through a diverse mix of generation and demand side resources. The 2020 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) continues our legacy by looking 25 years into the future to determine the energy needs of our customers. The IRP analyzes and outlines a strategy to meet demand and clean energy requirements using demand and supply side resources. Summary The 2020 IRP shows Avista has adequate resources between owned and contractually controlled generation to meet customer needs through 2025. New renewable energy, energy storage, demand response, energy efficiency, and upgrades to existing hydropower and biomass plants are integral to our plan. Changes Major changes from the 2017 IRP include: • The energy forecast grows 0.3 percent per year, replacing the 0.5 percent annual growth rate in the last IRP. • Peak load growth is 0.3 percent in the winter and 0.4 percent in the summer. • Energy efficiency meets 71 percent of new load growth compared to 53 percent in the 2017 IRP. Highlights Some highlights of the 2020 IRP include: • The resource strategy reduces greenhouse gas emissions between 80-90 percent from present levels. • A combination of new wind, storage, and demand response will meet the capacity losses from coal and natural gas-fired generation by 2026. • A larger portfolio of new resources than in previous IRPs to meet expected resource retirements and new renewable energy goals. • As much as 300 MW of new renewable generation by 2023 and a further 200 MW by 2027. IRP Process Each IRP is a thoroughly researched and data-driven document identifying a Preferred Resource Strategy to meet customer needs while balancing costs and risk measures with environmental goals and mandates. Avista’s professional energy analysts use sophisticated modeling tools and input from over 75 participants to develop each plan. The participants in the public process include customers, academics, environmental organizations, government agencies, consultants, utilities, elected officials, state utility commission stakeholders, and other interested parties. Conclusion This document is mostly technical in nature. The IRP has an Executive Summary and chapter highlights at the beginning of each section to help guide the reader. Avista expects to begin developing the 2021 IRP in early 2020. Stakeholder involvement is encouraged and interested parties may contact John Lyons at (509) 495-8515 or [email protected] for more information on participating in the IRP process. Table of Contents Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... 1-1 Resource Needs ....................................................................................................................... 1-1 Modeling and Results ............................................................................................................... 1-2 Energy Efficiency and Demand Response............................................................................... 1-3 Preferred Resource Strategy ................................................................................................... 1-4 Clean Energy Goals ................................................................................................................. 1-6 Action Items .............................................................................................................................. 1-8 2. Introduction and Stakeholder Involvement ................................................................ 2-1 IRP Process ............................................................................................................................. 2-1 2020 IRP Outline ...................................................................................................................... 2-4 Idaho Regulatory Requirements .............................................................................................. 2-5 Washington Regulatory Requirements .................................................................................. 2-10 Summary of 2020 IRP Changes from the 2017 IRP .............................................................. 2-11 3. Economic & Load Forecast .......................................................................................... 3-1 Economic Characteristics of Avista’s Service Territory ............................................................ 3-1 IRP Long-Run Load Forecast ................................................................................................ 3-13 Monthly Peak Load Forecast Methodology ............................................................................ 3-18 Simulated Extreme Weather Conditions with Historical Weather Data ................................. 3-19 4. Existing Supply Resources .......................................................................................... 4-1 Spokane River Hydroelectric Developments ........................................................................... 4-2 Clark Fork River Hydroelectric Development ........................................................................... 4-4 Total Hydroelectric Generation ................................................................................................ 4-4 Thermal Resources .................................................................................................................. 4-5 Small Avista-Owned Solar ....................................................................................................... 4-7 Power Purchase and Sale Contracts ....................................................................................... 4-7 Customer-Owned Generation ................................................................................................ 4-10 Natural Gas Pipeline Rights ................................................................................................... 4-11 Resource Environmental Requirements and Issues .............................................................. 4-13 Colstrip ................................................................................................................................... 4-17 5. Energy Efficiency .......................................................................................................... 5-1 The Conservation Potential Assessment ................................................................................. 5-2 Energy Efficiency Targets ........................................................................................................ 5-6 Energy Efficiency Related Financial Impacts ......................................................................... 5-10 Integrating Results into Business Planning and Operations .................................................. 5-11 Conservation’s
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