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Pro- Independence Parties Secure Majority in Catalan Election

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Pro- Independence Parties Secure Majority in Catalan Election MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Pro- Independence Parties Secure Majority In Catalan Election by Tom Lake Pro-independence parties secured a majority in the regional parliament of Catalonia in the election held on 14 February. Against the odds, pro-independence parties also secured an overall majority of the vote, albeit on a low turnout of just 53%. The outcome of the election is somewhat complicated by the disparate ideologies of the pro-independence parties and the fact that the pro-union Socialists’ Party of Catalonia (PSC) won a plurality of votes, meaning that it will have the first opportunity to form a government. Main Takeaways: • Winning a majority in parliament and a majority of the vote will give the independence movement a significant boost after several years of struggling to maintain coherence. • There is the prospect of political unrest in the coming weeks or months as pro- independence parties make renewed demands for an independence referendum. Another unauthorised illegal referendum cannot be ruled out. • While pro-union parties did not win a majority, the strong result for the Socialists’ Party of Catalonia – which won a plurality of the vote for the first time ever in Catalonia – will provide a timely boost to PM Pedro Sanchez. • The main party on the right of Catalan politics becomes the nationalist VOX, continuing the trend towards more polarised politics with moderate unionists and Catalan nationalists losing out to more extreme parties. Chart 1. 2021 Catalan Regional Election Results, Seats Source: Government of Catalonia, MNI Nevertheless, the Catalan independence movement has been given a notable shot in the arm after several years of infighting and apparent declines in support for Catalonia to become an independent nation state separate from Spain. In the event, parties that support Catalan independence won 74 of the 135 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia, above the 68 required for a majority. Pro-independence parties also won a majority of the overall vote for the first time since 1995. Both of these factors are likely to see calls for a legal independence referendum for the autonomous community become louder and more frequent in the weeks and months ahead. The pro-independence parties – the leftist Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), the populist Together for Catalonia (Junts) and the far-left Popular Unity Candidacy-Let’s Win Catalonia (CUP-G) – would command a comfortable majority if they formed a coalition. However, CUP- G’s anti-capitalist policies are likely to prove too extreme for the ERC and Junts to work with. The latter two parties alone hold 65 seats – three seats short of a majority. As such, the ERC and Junts may end up governing in a minority administration that wins an investiture vote in parliament on the second round thanks to the abstention of CUP-G members. As the leading candidate of the ERC, Pere Aragonès – who has served as acting Catalan president since September 2020 – is best placed among pro-independence politicians to lead the next regional government. Chart 2. 2021 Catalan Election Vote Share by Political Camp, % 60 50 2.72 6.67 40 3.85 5.57 30 20.04 7.69 20 23.04 10 21.3 6.87 0 Anti-Independence Pro-Independence Regionalist PSC VOX Cs PP ERC Junts CUP-G PDeCAT ECP Source: Government of Catalonia, MNI While the PSC, which won a plurality of the vote for the first time in Catalan history, will have the first opportunity to form a regional government it is unlikely that leader Salvador Illa – Spain’s former health minister whose leadership is seen as having boosted the PSC campaign – will be able to find enough willing pro-union partners to form a government. Nevertheless, the gain of 16 additional seats is a major boost for Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and makes the PSC (the Catalan sister party of Sanchez’s PSOE) the primary pro-union party in the region. The PSC’s gain comes at the expense of the centrist Citizens (Cs), which saw its seat total fall from 36 to just six after some tumultuous years. The other major winners in the election were parties of the far-right and far-left, demonstrating the increasing polarisation of politics in the region. The far-right pro-union nationalist VOX entered parliament with 11 seats, winning as many deputies as the two main unionist parties of the centre-right – the People’s Party (PP) and Citizens – combined. On the other side of the political spectrum, the far-left socialist pro-independence CUP-G won nine seats, up from four previously in its best election since 2015. With more extremist voices from both sides of the debate on Catalan independence, and indeed from both sides of the traditional left/right political divide, the rhetoric surrounding Catalan politics is likely to remain incendiary for the foreseeable future. .
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