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NBER Reporter Online, Volume 1982 A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (Ed.) Periodical Part NBER Reporter Online, Volume 1982 NBER Reporter Online Provided in Cooperation with: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, Mass. Suggested Citation: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) (Ed.) (1982) : NBER Reporter Online, Volume 1982, NBER Reporter Online, National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Cambridge, MA This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/62102 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH, INC. SPRING 1982 Program Report Development of the American Economy Robert W. Fogel The long-term approach to economic issues figured prominently in NBER research programs conducted be­ tween 1930 and the late 1960s, but work on long-term factors was co nd ucted main Iy at the macro level and was based on the Bureau's pioneering work in the develop­ ment of nationalincomeaccounts and related measures of macroeconomic behavior. The present NBER Pro­ gram in Development of the American Economy (DAE) is concerned mainly with long-term changes in the U.S. economy that have occurred atthe microeconomic level. Many of the major issues that have arisen in recent years have not yielded easily to standard macro analysis. To understand the sources of the long-term decline in sav­ ing and investment rates, the factors influencing the rate of technological change, or the long-term shifts in the demographic structure of the population and the labor fo rce, we need to know much more about m icroeconom ic behavior than we now know. Research at the microeco­ nomic level, however, has been inhibited by the absence cannot be created fromasinglesetofrecordsbutrequire of suitable data. Attention has therefore turned to the the linking of several differenttypesofrecords, including problem of constructing new data sets capable of illumi­ family histories, probate records, tax records, manu­ nating the relationship between the current and the past script schedules of the census, and medical records. The behavior of families and firms. pilot studies have been aimed at determining whether New Data Sets on Microeconomic Behavior the creation of the projected data sets is economically feasible and whether it is likely that such data sets will Since 1977, we have been engaged in a series of pilot yield the desired information. The results to date have projects investigating the feasibility of creating several been quite encouraging on both counts. representative data sets consisting of intergenerationally In 1980,we also began to investigate the feasibility of linked families. Such data sets would open up entirely constructing data sets based on firm records that would new possibilities for examining the interaction of eco­ permit the analysis of the way that firms respond to the nomic and cultural factors and their mutual influence on changing technological opportunities that are open to such variables as the saving rate, the rate of female entry them, as well as to the changing institutional and legal into the I~bor force, fertility arid mortality rates, the in­ environment in which they must operate. To deal with equality of the wealth distribution, migration rates, and such issues, it is necessary to develop representative rates of economic and social mobility. These data sets sets of firm records stretching over long periods of time The National Bureau of Economic Research is a private, nonprofit that not only contain information on the decisionmaking research organization founded in 1920 and devoted to objective quan­ processes of these firms, but also on the economic.con­ titative analysis of the American economy. Its officers and board of directors are: sequences of the decisions. Preliminary surveys show these records, deposited at various libraries, to be highly Chairman-Eli Shapiro promising; in addition, a numberof firms have indicated Vice Chairman-Franklin A. Lindsay Treasurer-Charles A. Walworth their willingness to open their firm archives. President and Chief Executive Officer-Martin Feldstein The Principal Projects Executive Director-David Hartman There are currently eight projects in the development Director of Finance and Administration-Sam Parker of the American economy program, and six more are scheduled to get underway shortly. Thesefourteen proj­ DIRECTORS AT LARGE ects are divided into three subprogram areas. The five Moses Abramovitz James J. O'Leary that deal with the. labor force are in one way or another George T. Conklin, Jr. Peter G. Peterson concerned with the socioeconomic causes of changes Morton Ehrlich Robert V. Roosa Martin Feldstein Richard N. Rosett in demographic behavior and their effects on the supply Edward L. Ginzton Bert Seidman and productivity of labor. The three projects on capital David L. Grove Eli Shapiro formation are directed toward explaining the long-term Walter W. Heller Stephen Stamas decline, which extends back to the 1890s, in the percent­ Franklin A. Lindsay Lazare Teper age of income devoted to capital formation. There are Roy E. Moor Donald S. Wasserman Geoffrey H. Moore Marina v. N. Whitman also two projects on the changing nature of technologi­ Michael H. Moskow cal advances and four on changes in government and industrial organization. The considerable labor involved in locating, retrieving, DIRECTORS BY UNIVERSITY APPOINTMENT processing, and assessing the new data sets on which Charles H. Berry, Princeton most of the projects are based has made the gestation pe­ Otto Eckstein, Harvard Walter D. Fisher, Northwestern riod of these projects much longerthan is usual. The most J. C. LaForce, California, Los Angeles advanced of them, Claudia Goldin's study of changes Paul McCracken, Michigan in women's participation in the labor market and of the Daniel McFadden, Massachusetts Institute of Technology transformation of the American household, is now near­ Almarin Phillips, Pennsylvania ing completion. (Goldin's findings were summarized in James L. Pierce, California, Berkeley James Tobin, Yale the Winter 1981/82 issue of the NBER Reporter.) The Nathan Rosenberg, Stanford remainder of this report describes three ofthe other proj­ James Simler, Minnesota ects in the DAE program that are now beginning to yield William S. Vickrey, Columbia important results. Dudley Wallace, Duke Burton A. Weisbrod, Wisconsin Secular Trends in Nutrition, Labor Welfare, Arnold Zellner, Chicago and Labor Productivity This collaborative project was initiated in 1978 and is DIRECTORS BY APPOINTMENT OF OTHER ORGANIZATIONS now in mid course. 1 Its objectives are: (1) to establish Carl F. Christ, American Economic Association and com pare secu lar trends in the level of n ut rition in the Robert C. Holland, Committee for Economic Development Stephan F. Kaliski, Canadian Economics Association United States, and in the main nations from which the Albert G. Matamoros, National Association of Business Economists U.S. population was drawn, over the period from the Douglass C. North, Economic History Association early eighteenth century to the present; (2) to measure Rudolph A. Oswald, American Federation of Labor and Congress secular changes in the differences in nutritional levels of Industrial Organizations among various socioeconomic classes; (3) to assess the Joel Popkin, American Statistical Association G. Edward Schuh, American Agricultural Economics Association validity of various real-wage indexes now employed as Albert T. Sommers, The Conference Board measures of the improvement in the economic welfare James C. Van Horne, American Finance Association of laboring classes; (4) to assess the impact of improved Charles A. Walworth, American Institute of Certified Public nutrition on labor productivity; and (5) to assess the im­ Accountants pact of nutrition on demographic rates. The project relies on measures of height as the princi­ pal index of the average level of nutrition in a population. Contributions to the National Bureau are tax deductible. Inquiries concerning contributions may be addressed to Lawrence B. McFaddin, Director of Development, National Bureau of EconomicResearch,lnc., 'For a more extended summary of the findings of this project, seethe 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA. 02138. forthcoming NBER Working Paper by R. W. Fogel et al., "Changes in The Reporter is issued for informational purposes
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