Fitch Rating 2020

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Fitch Rating 2020 Banks Universal Commercial Banks Germany Akbank AG Ratings Foreign Currency Long-Term IDR B+ Short-Term IDR B Support Rating 4 Sovereign Risk Key Rating Drivers Long-Term Foreign-Currency AAA IDR Institutional Support Drives Ratings: Akbank AG’s (AAG) Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) are Long-Term Local-Currency IDR AAA equalised with those of its Turkish parent, AKBANK T.A.S. (Akbank, B+/Negative), reflecting Country Ceiling potential shareholder support given it is a core subsidiary of Akbank. Our view of support also considers the bank’s common branding, full ownership, integration with its parent and shared Outlooks management/board members. AAG operates in three main business segments – corporate Long-Term Foreign-Currency Negative banking, retail banking (deposit account services) and treasury operations. IDR Sovereign Long-Term Foreign- Stable No Viability Rating Assigned: Fitch Ratings has not assigned a Viability Rating to AAG as it does Currency IDR not believe it can be analysed on a standalone basis. This is because AAG leverages off its Sovereign Long-Term Local- Stable parent’s franchise in Turkey, generating a large portion of its business through parent referrals. Currency IDR Nevertheless, the bank’s funding is mainly sourced locally from online deposits. AAG accounted Applicable Criteria for 7% of Akbank’s assets at end-3Q20 and 6% of its net income. Bank Rating Criteria (February 2020) Mainly Turkish Risk, Corporate Focus: AAG’s credit risk was split 51% to Turkey-based borrowers at end-3Q20 (primarily blue-chip companies, but with exposure to Turkish risk) with Related Research the rest to borrowers in Germany and Europe. About 80% of loans are to companies that also Fitch Ratings 2021 Outlook: Turkish Banks have exposure on its parent’s books. Loans are mainly in euros and US dollars, heightening the (December 2020) credit risk in the case of Turkish corporates, given the potential impact of depreciation of the Turkish Banks Datawatch 3Q20 Turkish lira on their ability to repay their debt. (December 2020) Turkish Banks' External Debt and FC Strong Asset Quality: AAG has not recorded a non-performing loan to date. However, its loan Liquidity: End-3Q20 (November 2020) book is highly concentrated. The top 25 loans comprised 76% of total loans at end-3Q20, Policy Settings Are Key to Assessing Turkey although a moderate share of loans (about a quarter of total loans) was cash-collateralised. Central Bank Change (November 2020) Operating environment challenges in the markets in which the bank operates may heighten Fitch Revises Outlook on Turkey to Negative; risks to asset quality. Affirms at 'BB-' (August 2020) Fitch Affirms 6 Large Turkish Banks at 'B+'; Largely Deposit Funded: AAG is almost entirely funded by deposits (9M20: 96% of total Downgrades Halk to 'B' (May 2020) funding). Retail deposits make up about 38% of total deposits and have increased significantly in recent years. Concentration risk is high, due to significant deposits from German corporates. The maturity profile of the deposit base is adequate, with 60% at end-3Q20 having contractual Financial Data maturities of over one year. Of those, 16% were sight deposits, which constitute a cheap funding Akbank AG source. 30 Sep 2020 31 Dec 2019 Solid Capitalisation: AAG’s capital base consists entirely of core Tier 1 capital. At end-3Q20, its Total assets 3,190.8 4,947.8 total capital ratio (21.7%) was comfortably above its 13% regulatory minimum. AAG’s (USDm) capitalisation is adequate given its solid record of asset quality, fairly low growth due to the Total assets 3,735.8 4,404.3 (EURm) bank’s cautious approach on the back of heightened risks in Turkish operating environment and zero dividend policy. Consequently, no capital increases are budgeted in the near term. Total equity 761.7 723.6 (EURm) Reasonable Profitability: AAG reported a solid 6.9% return-on-equity (annualised) at end- 3Q20 supported by its low cost/income ratio (16% in 9M20), due to its lean organisational structure. Analysts Markus Glabach Rating Sensitivities +49 69 768076 195 [email protected] Parent Support: AAG’s ratings are sensitive to a change in Akbank’s IDRs or a reduction in its parent’s propensity to provide support, for example due to a change of strategy that results in a Cem Bilgin diminution of AAG’s strategic importance to the group. +44 20 3530 1230 [email protected] Rating Report │ 17 December 2020 fitchratings.com 1 Banks Universal Commercial Banks Germany Institutional Support Assessment Bar Chart Legend Vertical bars – VR range of Rating Factor Bar Colors – Influence on final VR Higher influence Moderate influence Lower influence Bar Arrows – Rating Factor Outlook Positive Negative Evolving Stable Institutional Support Drives Ratings AAG’s ratings are equalised with those of Akbank, reflecting its strategic importance to its parent but also its ownership, integration and common branding, while the Negative Outlook on the Long-Term IDR mirrors that on its parent. The bank’s Deposit Ratings are also in line with its support-driven IDRs. In Fitch’s opinion, AAG's debt buffers do not afford any obvious incremental probability of default benefit over and above the support benefit factored into its IDRs. Significant Changes Weaker Economic Outlook AAG’s credit profile is correlated to the Turkish market, given that most of its business is concentrated there. Downside risks have been heightened by the coronavirus pandemic and lockdown measures in Turkey amid market volatility and lira depreciation (the lira fell by 24% against the US dollar in 11M20). Fitch has raised its 2020 forecast for Turkey’s GDP to growth of 0.2%, followed by a moderately weaker 3.5% in 2021. Exposure to Germany is also significant at 32% of lending at end-3Q20. Fitch forecasts Germany’s GDP to contract by 5.6 % in 2020, followed by growth of 5.0% in 2021, which is a milder course than other European economies. Germany has launched comprehensive fiscal measures in the form of large aid programmes to support companies and households affected by the crisis. These measures, together with regulatory forbearance relating to the classification of crisis-driven non-performing loans, have mitigated negative rating migration and risk-weighted asset inflation, limiting banks’ provisioning needs in 1H20. We expect this to also be the case at end-2020, but expect credit quality to deteriorate in 2021 as some vulnerable borrowers will not fully recover, and many corporates and SMEs are likely to emerge durably weaker from the crisis. Akbank AG Rating Report │ 17 December 2020 fitchratings.com 2 Banks Universal Commercial Banks Germany Brief Company Summary Niche Focus on Turkish Corporates AAG had just EUR3.7 billion in assets at end-3Q20 and specialises in European (largely German) and Turkish corporate lending. It focuses on providing medium-term working-capital and trade finance facilities to corporates typically with direct or indirect business links to the Turkish market. Accordingly, 51% of its credit risk was Turkey-related at end-3Q20, while its remaining exposure mainly related to Germany and other European countries. AAG has three main business segments – corporate banking and financial institutions, retail banking (deposits only, no retail lending) and treasury. The bank’s main focus in corporate banking is on large and medium-sized Turkish companies, subsidiaries of Turkish companies in Germany and central Europe or companies that have regular business dealings with Turkey (import/export), many of which also have a business relationship with Akbank. AAG does not have any branches and operates solely from its head office in Frankfurt, while collecting deposits via internet banking, supporting its low headcount of 52 employees at end- 2019 and low cost base. AAG is a member of the German voluntary private depositor protection scheme (Einlagensicherungsfonds des Bundesverband deutscher Banken), which ensures that liabilities to non-banks placed with the bank (including all customer deposits) are insured up to a level equal to 15% of AAG’s equity in the case of each depositor. This enables AAG to raise low-cost institutional deposits, which constitute its main funding source (end-3Q20: about 98% of customer deposits). Management and Strategy AAG and Akbank are closely integrated in terms of management. AAG has seven supervisory board members, all drawn from its parent. The chairman of the supervisory board is Akbank’s executive vice president for corporate and investment banking at the parent bank and a further six members hold executive positions at Akbank. AAG’s business strategy is fairly simple and the bank has an adequate record in meeting its strategic and financial objectives. Its strategy focuses on expanding its corporate and trade finance operations, while seeking to diversify away from Turkish-related business by increasing non-Turkish risk. However, the bank will continue to extend short-term and overnight lira loans to subsidiaries of blue-chip multinational companies in Turkey. It will be challenging for AAG to achieve diversification away from Turkish risk in the short term, considering the stagnation in the eurozone and ensuing low appetite for loans. AAG expects the structure of its balance sheet to remain stable. The bank will continue to fund itself mainly by means of corporate and retail deposits. Risk Appetite A significant portion of AAG’s loan operations are sourced through its parent. AAG’s risk limits are fully consolidated into those of the Akbank group and its risk management policies and procedures are integrated and supervised by Akbank. AAG's asset size contracted by 15% in euro terms in 9M20 following a 2% contraction in 2019 on the back of deterioration in the Turkish operating environment and AAG’s ensuing more selective approach to extending loans. Fitch believes AAG will maintain its cautious stance towards growth.
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