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How Big Is the International Arms Trade?

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How Big Is the International Arms Trade? HOW BIG IS THE INTERNATIONAL ARMS TRADE? July 19, 2018 By Sam Perlo Freeman, Program Director, The World Peace Foundation, World Peace Foundation an operating foundation affiliated solely with the Fletcher School INTRODUCTION at Tufts University, aims to provide intellectual leadership The international trade in arms is an issue of major concern for on issues of peace, justice many reasons: unrestrained trade in arms can lead to destabilizing and security. We believe that arms build-ups, threatening regional stability; it fuels civil innovative research and teaching wars and external military interventions leading to massive are critical to the challenges of civilian death and suffering, caused by both government forces, making peace around the world, rebel groups and external interveners; props up dictatorships and should go hand-in-hand and human rights-abusing regimes; it also diverts enormous with advocacy and practical resources from potential civilian uses, including through the vast engagement with the toughest corruption often associated with the trade. On the other hand, issues. To respond to organized many states view the export of arms as a key tool of foreign policy violence today, we not only need and a means of strengthening allies. Almost all significant arms new instruments and tools—we exporters maintain a rigorous system of export controls—which need a new vision of peace. Our generally do not stop the sale of arms to questionable recipients, challenge is to reinvent peace. but which do ensure that transfers (usually) only occur with the permission of the government—and an Arms Trade Treaty was For more information on our recently signed by most UN member states as a first attempt Global Arms and Corruption to bring some form of international regulation to the trade. Program visit our website at Worldpeacefoundation. In the light of this, it is perhaps surprising, and certainly org and blog at https://sites. unfortunate, that the data on the international arms trade tufts.edu/corruptarmsdeals/ is so poor. For a phenomenon so significant in international relations, access to clear and reliable data is of enormous value for both citizens and policy-makers. But, as this article will discuss, even estimating a figure for the total value of the legal world trade in arms is fraught with difficulties, and breaking this down in more detail, in terms of buyers and sellers, is even more problematic. This article will attempt to produce such a global estimate, or rather a range of estimates, while explaining the problems with the data, including for some of the largest western arms exporters, from whom one might expect a greater level of transparency: most notably, the USA. How big is the international arms trade? Section 1 examines the available sources of services ordered, licensed and transferred, is data on the international arms trade, and the also a critical element of transparency in the availability of data for different countries, arms trade, and so will briefly be considered including through international transparency here. A survey of international and regional mechanisms, and their limitations. Section 2 transparency instruments relating to the attempts to build an estimate of the global arms arms trade is presented each year in the trade, going through the key arms exporters SIPRI Yearbook chapter on Arms Transfers. country by country, explaining the problems with the data and attempting to derive reasonable The UN Register of estimates on the basis of the available information. Conventional Arms (UNROCA) Section 3 reflects on the issues and problems revealed by this exercise, and concludes. Probably the most important international transparency instrument for the arms trade is the UN Register of Conventional Arms 1 1. TRANSPARENCY (UNROCA), which was established in 1991, with a goal of building confidence between states AND SOURCES OF and ‘to prevent the excessive and destabilizing INFORMATION IN accumulation of arms’. All UN member states are requested to submit, on a voluntary basis, THE INTERNATIONAL annual reports of their imports and exports of ARMS TRADE seven classes of major conventional weapons: battle tanks, armored combat vehicles, large- The issue of transparency in the international caliber artillery systems, combat aircraft, attack arms trade has gained prominence in recent helicopters, warships, and missiles and missile decades, as an essential precondition for launchers. In addition, states are invited to enabling rigorous export controls, preventing report on their procurement of such systems proliferation of sensitive technologies (including from national production, and on imports for WMD), promoting international cooperation and exports of small arms and light weapons. on arms control, and enabling a meaningful voice for parliaments, civil society and citizens At its height, in 2001, 126 states submitted in decisions on arms exports. The 1990s saw a reports to UNROCA (including ‘nil’ reports), number of significant transparency initiatives in but this has been steadily falling, with only 44 the wake of the first Gulf War, in particular the states reporting for 2015 as of February 2017.2 Wassenaar Arrangement and the UN Register on A number of major exporters, including China, Conventional Arms. More recently, international France, and Italy, failed to report for 2015. efforts to negotiate and sign the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT) have highlighted the importance Aside from the low reporting rate, UNROCA of transparency, while efforts to support has numerous shortcomings. First of all, implementation of the ATT will also involve its coverage is very limited, leaving out the measures to promote transparency. At a regional entire range of military electronic systems level, the EU Common Position on arms exports and sensors, so-called C4ISTAR (Computers, was a major step forward in common reporting Command, Control, Communications, standards for arms transfers—although as we Intelligence, Surveillance, Target-Acquisition shall see, even this is lacking in key respects. and Reconnaissance) that is so crucial to modern warfare, as well as major and costly Information on the arms trade includes both force multipliers such as transport and tanker qualitative and quantitative information, and aircraft. Secondly, analysis by SIPRI regularly both are of central importance for transparency. The question posed by this article, “How big 1 https://www.unroca.org is the international arms trade”, relates to 2 E.g. Bromley, M. & Wezeman, S., “Transparency the quantitative side, and is the main focus in arms transfers”, Chapter 10 section III in SIPRI of this paper, but qualitative information, Yearbook 2017: Armaments, Disarmament, and regarding the actual military equipment and International Security, OUP, 2017. 2 How big is the international arms trade? shows discrepancies between what is reported in operation.3 The United Kingdom uses open on the exporter side with what is reported on licenses far more than most other EU member the importer side. Reports to UNROCA from states, but their use is increasing elsewhere as both sides also frequently understate records well, severely limiting the degree of transparency collected in SIPRI’s own Arms Transfers provided by national arms export reports. Database. Thus, UNROCA is far from being fully comprehensive, even for the limited range of The Stockholm International weapons systems it covers and states that report. Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Arms National reporting Transfers Database National arms transfers reporting is the main basis for financial information on the arms The most widely cited source of international trade, and also frequently contains detailed arms trade data, and the one generally qualitative information. In particular, the EU accepted as most authoritative, is the SIPRI 4 Common Position on arms exports requires Arms Transfers Database (ATDB), which members to produce annual reports detailing provides detailed qualitative and quantitative export licenses granted and refused across the information on international arms transfers. The common EU Military and Dual Use Lists of qualitative information, provided in the Trade equipment and technologies covered by the Registers, provides information on specific Common Position. National reports typically orders and deliveries of major conventional include considerable detail of the nature of weapons, including buyer and seller, years of the equipment licensed, although not the order and delivery, type of equipment sold, specific make or the company producing it, numbers ordered and delivered to date (known for reasons of commercial confidentiality. or estimated), whether the deal is a direct sale or licensed production, and additional notes, Far more limited is information on the sometimes including the price, where known. equipment actually transferred, which is a significant gap, as it cannot be assumed that The ATDB covers a wider range of systems all equipment licensed is ultimately delivered. than UNROCA, but is still limited to what More importantly, the reporting only includes SIPRI classifies as “major conventional any quantitative element (numbers of equipment weapons”. The categories currently covered are:5 as well as value) for individual licenses, which authorize a single shipment of a specified • Aircraft quantity and value to a specific destination. • Air defense systems Transparency is much weaker in relation to open • Armored vehicles licenses, which allow for multiple
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