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Infrastructure, Innovation, and the Digital Divide in Asia: Lessons from Internet Production History

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Infrastructure, Innovation, and the Digital Divide in Asia: Lessons from Internet Production History Infrastructure, Innovation, and the Digital Divide in Asia: Lessons from Internet Production History Version 1.0 September, 2005 Tom Vest Packet Clearing House Rising official, public Interest in the Internet and Internet policy Some interest predicated on sovereignty issues/claims Some predicated on concerns about economic development, differential growth rates, e.g., the Digital Divide de regia non est disputandum, but... By definition, sovereignty issues are domain of pure politics Issues of economics and development are different -- research, data, facts can play a useful role... i.e., only 50% politics... The Internet routing table: A rich resource for policy research Digital Divide often defined in terms of asymmetrical growth in: i.e., subscribers, Users opportunistic users i.e., time online, Usage multiple access methods i.e., diversity of content Uses and services...and value ...with “asymmetry” defined by means of nationalUsers comparisons Internet routing table(s) informs these questions in the aggregate(s) + + e scaling factors policy era-specific factors Users, Usage Uses growth slack/inefficiency = IP addresses injected into the Internet routing table by an individual ISP/network operator Where to count Internet production? e Each router connected maintains a local view of paths leading to e every Internet resource e e e Each of those views router may vary substantially e in almost every way e e -- except one: e e e All will share a common view of the network of AS Autonomous System origination for each Internet resource* e e e e How to count e Internet production? AU e e Eache router connectede Individualmaintains a local view Autonomousof paths leadinge e to e e systems canevery be Internet resource e e plausibly Autonomous System VN e associated withEach of those views nationalrouter may vary substantially e jurisdictionsin of almost every way e e ownership/-- except one: administration e e e e All will share a common view of the network of AS Autonomous System origination for eache Summed production of Internetnational resource ASese * e = National Internet Production JP e e e e e e e Autonomous System Internet production - who!s counting? University of Oregon Route Views Project Centralized collection of “global” routing table snapshots from multiple vantage points, 1997-present Packet Clearing House Local capture of partial routing tables from 40+ Internet Exchange Points around the world Tony Bates, Philip Smith, Geoff Huston/APNIC, CAIDA… Focus on scarce protocol resource husbandry, efficiency of route aggregation, bogon detection/remediation CAIDA IPv4 BGP Geopolitical Analysis Single snapshot of international distribution of Internet resources, June 11, 2001 1,800,000,000Internet Production Trends by Region As-yet Unidentified 1,600,000,000 Northern America Polynesia Micronesia 1,400,000,000 Melanesia Caribbean Western Europe 1,200,000,000 Southern Europe Northern Europe Europe 1,000,000,000 Eastern Europe Western Asia South-eastern Asia 800,000,000 South-central Asia Eastern Asia Asia 600,000,000 Australia and New Zealand South America Central America 400,000,000 Western Africa Southern Africa Northern Africa 200,000,000 Middle Africa Eastern Africa 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Internet Production in Asia MYANMAR 350,000,000 LAO PDR 16,000,000 CAMBODIA BRUNEI 14,000,000 VIET NAM PHILIPPINES 300,000,000 12,000,000 INDONESIA SINGAPORE 10,000,000 THAILAND MALAYSIA 8,000,000 BRITISH INDIAN OCEAN 250,000,000 MALDIVES 6,000,000 AFGHANISTAN BHUTAN 4,000,000 NEPAL BANGLADESH 2,000,000 200,000,000 SRI LANKA PAKISTAN 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 INDIA AMERICAN SAMOA SAMOA 150,000,000 COOK ISLANDS FRENCH POLYNESIA MICRONESIA PALAU NORTHERN MARIANAS GUAM 100,000,000 VANUATU FIJI MONGOLIA MACAU HONG KONG 50,000,000 TAIWAN KOREA CHINA JAPAN NEW CALEDONIA 0 PAPUA NEW GUINEA 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 NEW ZEALAND AUSTRALIA So what? What does it mean? How much Internet production should there be? Q: Internet!s “end-to-end” nature often cited -- where does one find logical ends in the physical world? A: On interfaces of devices connected to physical media -- copper, coax, fiber -- that enable/embody Internet users, usage, uses... Physical media -- the big picture e.g., dial (users)... Copper DSL (usage)... First enterprise (uses), Fiber then international... Coax More users, usage... Physical media -- the historical view: a coincidence of technology and policy Legacy infrastructure... Copper wholesale access... “Value-added” services, Fiber B2B separation of core/long multiplexing distance from access, wholesale capacity... C2C B2C Coax Access segment competition (for some)... Physical media -- the stakes: significance of access est. 9 billion miles in high Copper density areas c. 2003 Maybe 1 billion unduplicated miles, Fiber much idle/underutilized est. 900 million miles Coax deployed c. 2003 Measuring logical ends against physical ends: global view 10,000 Main Lines Deployed (m) Routed IP Addresses (100k) 1,000 By originating AS 1: 1 Ratio 100 10 1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 Iran Italy India Chile Israel Spain Brazil Egypt China Korea Japan Turkey Russia France Poland Greece Mexico Austria Norway Canada Belarus Ukraine Sweden Belgium Bulgaria Portugal Hungary Thailand Pakistan Malaysia Romania Australia Viet Nam Denmark Germany Colombia Argentina Indonesia Venezuela Hongkong Yugoslavia Philippines Switzerland Netherlands South Africa Saudi Arabia United States Taiwan, China Czech Republic United Kingdom Measuring logical ends against 5.00 physical ends: regional viewFRENCH POLYNESIA SAMOA MICRONESIA 4.50 FIJI VANUATU INDIA NEPAL 4.00 AFGHANISTAN PAKISTAN BHUTAN 3.50 SRI LANKA BANGLADESH MALDIVES 3.00 MYANMAR VIET NAM INDONESIA 2.50 LAO PDR PHILIPPINES THAILAND 2.00 CAMBODIA MALAYSIA SINGAPORE 1.50 BRUNEI MONGOLIA CHINA KOREA 1.00 MACAU JAPAN TAIWAN 0.50 HONG KONG NEW CALEDONIA NEW ZEALAND 0.00 PAPUA NEW GUINEA 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004* 2005* AUSTRALIA Measuring logical ends against physical ends: detailed view 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004* 2005* 1.00 INDIA NEPAL AFGHANISTAN PAKISTAN BHUTAN SRI LANKA BANGLADESH MYANMAR 0.10 VIET NAM INDONESIA LAO PDR PHILIPPINES THAILAND CAMBODIA MALAYSIA MONGOLIA 0.01 CHINA What drives logical / physical utilization rates? e.g., availability of (vast) Building wholesale capacity to efficient enterprises...freedom of connections interconnection... e.g., availability of across (non-duplicable) distinct wholesale access to media, non-facilities builders market e.g., regulatory parity across media to segments promote technology- driven design choices -> More users, usage, uses per unit of infrastructure investment Measuring logical ends against physical ends: the ASN connection 10,000 Main Lines Deployed (m) Routed IP Addresses (100k) By originating AS 1,000 Network Operators Originating ASNs 1: 1 Ratio 100 10 1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 Iran Italy India Chile Israel Spain Brazil China Egypt Korea Japan Turkey Russia France Poland Mexico Greece Austria Norway Canada Belarus Ukraine Sweden Belgium Bulgaria Hungary Portugal Thailand Pakistan Malaysia Romania Australia Viet Nam Denmark Germany Colombia Argentina Indonesia Venezuela Hongkong Yugoslavia Philippines Switzerland Netherlands South Africa Saudi Arabia United States Taiwan, China Czech Republic United Kingdom Investigation 1: new networks since 1997 Post97ASNs Northern America Norte 20000 LegacyASNs Northern America Norte Post97ASNs Polynesia Islands LegacyASNs Polynesia Islands Pre-1997 “Legacy ASes” Post97ASNs Micronesia Islands 18000 LegacyASNs Micronesia Islands very often true incumbents, Post97ASNs Melanesia Islands LegacyASNs Melanesia Islands i.e., PSTNs, facilities-based Post97ASNs Caribbean Islands 16000 LegacyASNs Caribbean Islands access network owners Post97ASNs Western Europe Europe LegacyASNs Western Europe Europe Post97ASNs Southern Europe Europe 14000 LegacyASNs Southern Europe Europe Post97ASNs Northern Europe Europe LegacyASNs Northern Europe Europe Post97ASNs Europe Europe LegacyASNs Europe Europe 12000 Post97ASNs Eastern Europe Europe LegacyASNs Eastern Europe Europe Post97ASNs Western Asia Asia LegacyASNs Western Asia Asia 10000 Post97ASNs South-eastern Asia Asia LegacyASNs South-eastern Asia Asia Post97ASNs South-central Asia Asia LegacyASNs South-central Asia Asia 8000 Post97ASNs Eastern Asia Asia LegacyASNs Eastern Asia Asia Post97ASNs Asia Asia LegacyASNs Asia Asia 6000 Post97ASNs Australia and New Zealand ANZUS LegacyASNs Australia and New Zealand ANZUS Post97ASNs South America Americas LegacyASNs South America Americas 4000 Post97ASNs Central America Americas LegacyASNs Central America Americas Post97ASNs Western Africa Africa LegacyASNs Western Africa Africa 2000 Post97ASNs Southern Africa Africa LegacyASNs Southern Africa Africa Post97ASNs Northern Africa Africa LegacyASNs Northern Africa Africa Post97ASNs Middle Africa Africa 0 LegacyASNs Middle Africa Africa 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Post97ASNs Eastern Africa Africa LegacyASNs Eastern Africa Africa Investigation 1: new networks since 1997, detail Post97ASNs Northern America Norte LegacyASNs Northern America Norte Post97ASNs Polynesia Islands LegacyASNs Polynesia Islands 7000 Post97ASNs Micronesia Islands LegacyASNs Micronesia Islands Post97ASNs Melanesia Islands LegacyASNs Melanesia Islands Post97ASNs Caribbean Islands 6000 LegacyASNs Caribbean Islands Post97ASNs Western Europe Europe LegacyASNs
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