Carbon Budgetbudget 20092009 GCP-Carbon Budget2009 Contributors

Budget09 released on 21 November 2010 ppt version 20 January 2011

CarbonCarbon BudgetBudget 20092009 GCP-Carbon Budget2009 Contributors

Karen Assmann Peter E. Levy University of Bergen, Norway Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, UK Thomas A. Boden Sam Levis Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Co, USA Ridge, Tennessee USA Mark R. Lomas Gordon Bonan Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, U National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA Joseph Majkut Laurent Bopp AOS Program, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR, CEA-CNRS- Nicolas Metzl UVSQ, France LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS, Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Université Pierre et Marie Erik Buitenhuis Curie, Paris, France School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Corinne Le Quéré Ken Caldeira School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK Josep G. Canadell Andrew Lenton Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Tasmania, Australia Australia Ivan Lima Philippe Ciais Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS- Gregg Marland UVSQ, France Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Thomas J. Conway Ridge, Tennessee, USA NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA Glen P. Peters Steve Davis Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA Michael R. Raupach Scott C. Doney Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA Australia Richard A. Feely Stephen Sitch Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Washington, USA School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK Pru Foster James T. Randerson QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, Pierre Friedlingstein USA Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France Guido R. van der Werf QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Joe L. Hackler Nicolas Viovy Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Christoph Heinze France University of Bergen, Norway F. Ian Woodward Richard A. Houghton Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA Sönke Zaehle Chris Huntingford Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Benson Lane, Wallingford, UK Ning Zeng University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA GCP-Carbon Budget2009

http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget

Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway

TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, DOI 10.1038/ngeo_1022, Online 21 November 2010. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1022.html Units

• 1 Pg = 1 Petagram = 1x1015g = 1 Billion metric tons = 1 Gigaton

• 1 Tg = 1 Teragram = 1x1012g = 1 Million metric tons

• 1 Kg Carbon (C) = 3.67 Kg Carbon Dioxide (CO2 ) Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions CO ) -1 Growth rate 2000-2009 2 2.5 % per year emissions (Pg C y

2009: Emissions:8.4±0.5 PgC Growth rate: -1.3%

Growth rate (Pg CO 1990-1999 1990 level: +37% emissions 1 % per year 2 2000-2008 2 y

CO Growth rate: +3.2% -1 ) 2010 (projected): Growth rate: >3%

Time (y)

Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010 Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters 2009

2000 China

1600 USA

1200

800

(C tons x 1,000,000) India Russian Fed. 400 Japan Carbon Emissions per year Carbon Emissions per 0 1990 93 95 97 99 2001 03 05 07 2009 Time (y)

Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden-CDIAC 2010 Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Profile Examples

2009

160 UK Canada 120

Australia 80 Spain

(C tons x 1,000,000) The Netherlands 40 Carbon Emissions per year Carbon Emissions per 0 Denmark 1990 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 2009 Time (y)

Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden- CDIAC 2010 Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions

57% ) 5 -1

(PgC y Annex B (Kyoto Protocol) 4 Developed Nation

3 43% emissions 2 Developing Nations Non-Annex B CO 2

1990 2000 2010 Time (y)

Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; CDIAC 20010 Top 20 CO2 Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2009

2500 6 Per CapitaEmissions

2000 (tons Cpersony

4 1500 3 1000 2 -1 ) (tons x 1,000,000) 500 1

Total Carbon Emissions Total Carbon Emissions 0 0 DIA AN ALY USA IN IR T CHINA I SPAIN RUSSIAJAPANRMANY MEXICO BRAZIL E CANADA DONESIA . Monaco)POLAND G N inl D KINGDOM I AUSTRALIA( E SOUTH KOREA SAUDISOUTH ARABIA AFRICA UNIT FRANCE

Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; Population World Bank 2010 CO2 Emissions by Fossil Fuel Type

4 ) -1 40%

3 Oil (PgC y 36% Coal

2 Gas emissions

2 1 Cement CO 0 1990 2000 2010 Time (y)

Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010 Change in CO2 Emissions from Coal (2007 to 2009)

350

300 ) -1 250 92% of growth

(Tg C y 200

150

100 emissions 2 50 CO

0 China India US World -50

Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010 Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios

10 ) Observed -1 Projected A1B Models Average 9 A1FI Models Average (PgCy A1T Models Average A2 Models Average B1 Models Average 8 B2 Models Average Full range of IPCC individual scenarios used for climate 7 projections

6 Fossil Fuel Emission 5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Time (y)

Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; International Monetary Fund 2010 -1 Fluxes of Emissions Embodied in Trade (Mt CO2 y )

Year 2004

From dominant net exporting countries (blue) to dominant net importing countries (red).

Davis & Caldeira 2010, PNAS; See also Peters & Hertwich 2008, Environ, Sci & Tech. CO2 Emissions from FF and LUC (1960-2009)

10 ) -1

8 (PgC y

6 Fossil fuel LUC emissions now

~10% of total CO2 emissions 4 emissions 2 Land use change 2 CO

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Time (y)

Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change CO )

-1 1990-1999

1.5±0.7 PgCy-1 2 emissions

(PgC y 2000-2009 1.1±0.7 PgCy-1 1990s Emissions: 1.5±0.7 PgC

(PgCO 2000-2005

emissions Emissions: 1.3±0.7 PgC 2 2

y 2006-2010: CO -1

) Emissions: 0.9±0.7 PgC

Time (y)

Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Data: RA Houghton, GFRA 2010 Emissions from Land Use Change (1850-2009)

1800 )

-1 1600 Tropical 1400 Temperate 1200 (TgC y 1000 800 600 400 200 emissions 0 2 -200

CO -400

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Time (y)

R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010 Emissions from Land Use Change (1850-2009)

1000 )

-1 Latin America 800 S & SE Asia Tropical Africa Tg C y 600

400

200

emissions ( 0 2

CO -200

1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Time (y)

R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010 Fire Emissions from Deforestation Zones

Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) version 3.1 1400

) America -1 1200 Africa Asia

(Tg y C Pan-tropics 1000

800

600

400

Fire Emissions from Fire Emissions 200 deforestation zones 0 1997 99 01 2003 05 07 2009 Time (y)

van der Werf et al. 2010, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

GLOBAL MONTHLY MEAN CO2 390 December 2009: 387.2 ppm September 2010 (preliminary): 389.2 ppm 388 39% above pre-industrial

386

384

382 Parts Per Million (ppm) Annual Mea Growth Rate (ppm y-1) 380 2009 1.62 November 2010 November 2008 1.80 378 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2.14 2006 1.84 1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1 2005 2.39 2004 1.60 1 1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y 2003 2.19 1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1 2002 2.40 2001 1.89 2000 - 2009: 1.9 ppm y-1 2000 1.22

Data Source: Pieter Tans and Thomas Conway, 2010, NOAA/ESRL Key Diagnostic of the Carbon Cycle Evolution of the fraction of total emissions that remain in the atmosphere

) 10 -1 Total

CO2 emissions

(PgC y 8

4 Atmosphere Partitioning 2 2 CO

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Time (y)

Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: NOAA 2010, CDIAC 2010 Airborne Fraction

Fraction of total CO2 emissions that remains in the atmosphere

1.0 Trend: 0.31 % y-1 (p=~0.9) 0.8 45% 40% 0.6

0.4

Airborne Fraction 0.2

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Time (y)

Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Raupach et al. 2008, Biogeosciences; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS Modelled Natural CO2 Sinks

0 ) -1

-2 5 models (PgCy Land sink

-4

-6 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2

0 ) -1

-2 5 models (PgCy Ocean sink -4

-6 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Time (y)

Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget

2000-2009 10 (PgC) ) -1 5 Source

(PgC y deforestation 1.1±0.7 flux 2 CO 5 Sink

10 1850 1900 1950 2000 Time (y)

Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget