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Carbon Dioxide, Chemistry and Climate How Do We Know Anything?

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Carbon Dioxide, Chemistry and Climate How Do We Know Anything? Climate Literacy Conference San Diego 18 Feb 2010 Carbon Dioxide, Chemistry and Climate How do we know anything? Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology Stanford, CA [email protected] How do we know anything? • Thought, intuition, interior reflection • Unplanned direct experience • Family, friends, etc • TV, magazines, books, web sites, blogs, experts, idiots • Planned empirical investigation • Careful analysis and appraisal of multiple sources of information Can we trust our own experience? by Adrian Pingstone, based on the original created by Edward H. Adelson Can we trust our own experience? by Adrian Pingstone, based on the original created by Edward H. Adelson Can we trust our own experience? by Adrian Pingstone, based on the original created by Edward H. Adelson How do we know anything? • What food to eat? • Which things are really dangerous? • Which investments are safe? • Whether human-induced climate change is a real threat? • Which energy technologies or approaches can really diminish climate risk? Anthropogenic CO2 emissions exceed natural emissions by a factor of about 100 Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios 10 CDIAC IEAall ) -1 A1B(Av) 9 A1FI(Av) A1T(Av) (PgC y A2(Av) B1(Av) 2005 8 B2(Av) Projection 7 emissions 2 6 CO 5 1990 2000 2010 Updated Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios 10 CDIAC IEAall ) -1 A1B(Av) 9 A1FI(Av) 2006 A1T(Av) (PgC y A2(Av) B1(Av) 2005 8 B2(Av) Projection 7 emissions 2 6 CO 5 1990 2000 2010 Updated Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios 10 CDIAC IEAall ) 2008 -1 A1B(Av) 2007 9 A1FI(Av) 2006 A1T(Av) (PgC y A2(Av) B1(Av) 2005 8 B2(Av) Projection 7 emissions 2 6 CO 5 1990 2000 2010 Updated Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS Economic Crisis Impact on World GDP Growth -1.1% International Energy Agency, October 2009 Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios 10 CDIAC 2009 IEAall ) 2008 -1 A1B(Av) 2007 9 A1FI(Av) 2006 A1T(Av) (PgC y A2(Av) B1(Av) 2005 8 B2(Av) Projection Projection 2009: Emissions: -2.8% 7 GDP: -1.1% emissions C intensity: -1.7% 2 6 CO 5 1990 2000 2010 Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; updated Raupach unpublished; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-Geo, in press Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006) 2000-2006 fossil fuel emissions ) 7.6 -1 deforestation Source 1.5 atmospheric CO2 flux (Pg C y 2 4.1 Sink CO land 2.8 ocean 2.2 Time (y) Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS Ice core and instrumental records of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations Petit et al (1999) Fig by Robert A. Rohde Ischia, Italy Map created by Norman Einstein Low CO High CO2 2 = Invasive grasses = Native shellfish Hall-Spencer / BBC CO2 dissolving shells and skeletons Thanks Jason Hall Spencer Chemistry of ocean acidification Formation of calcium carbonate shells and skeletons O O O O H H H2O C C O H HCO - CO 2- O 3 O 3 O O 2- C CO3 Ca Ca2+ (dissolved) O Formation of calcium carbonate shells and skeletons O O O O H H H2O C C O H HCO - CO 2- O 3 O 3 O O C CO 2- O 3 Ca Ca2+ (dissolved) Formation of calcium carbonate shells and skeletons O O O O H H H2O C C O H HCO - CO 2- O 3 O 3 O O C CO 2- O 3 Ca Ca2+ (dissolved) Formation of calcium carbonate shells and skeletons O O O O H H H2O C C O H HCO - CO 2- O 3 O 3 O O C CaCO (solid) Ca O 3 Water, dissolved carbon, and shells and skeletons O O O O H H H2O C C O H HCO - CO 2- O 3 O 3 O O C CaCO (solid) Ca O 3 Addition of CO2 O C O CO2 O O O O H H H2O C C O H HCO - CO 2- O 3 O 3 O O C CaCO (solid) Ca O 3 Formation of carbonic acid O O C O O O O H H C C O H - 2- HCO3 CO3 H2CO3 O O O O C CaCO (solid) Ca O 3 Increasing ocean acidity O O C O O O O H H H+ C C O H - 2- - HCO3 CO3 HCO3 O O O O C CaCO (solid) Ca O 3 Increasing ocean acidity O O C O O O O H C C O H - 2- - HCO3 CO3 HCO3 O O H H+ O O C CaCO (solid) Ca O 3 Increasing ocean acidity O O C O O O O H C C O H - 2- - HCO3 CO3 HCO3 O O H H+ O O C CaCO (solid) Ca O 3 Increasing ocean acidity O O C O O O O H C C O H - 2- - HCO3 CO3 HCO3 O O H H+ O O C CaCO (solid) Ca O 3 Attacking a building block for shells and skeletons O O C O O O O H C C O H - 2- - HCO3 CO3 HCO3 O O H H+ O O C CaCO (solid) Ca O 3 Attacking a building block for shells and skeletons O O C O O O O H C C O H - H - - HCO3 HCO3 HCO3 O O O O C CaCO (solid) Ca O 3 Dissolving shells and skeletons O O C O O O O H C C O H - H - - HCO3 HCO3 HCO3 O O O O C CO 2- O 3 Ca Ca2+ (dissolved) Dissolving shells and skeletons O O C O O O O H C C O H - H - - HCO3 HCO3 HCO3 O O O O C CO 2- O 3 Ca Ca2+ (dissolved) Dissolving shells and skeletons O O C O O O O H C C O H - H - - HCO3 HCO3 HCO3 O O O O 2- C CO3 Ca Ca2+ (dissolved) O Lizard Island Expedition September 2008 We measured of coral skeletal growth rates 40% lower than in the late 1970’s Distribution of corals and ocean acidification Carbon dioxide level, Coral reef distribution, and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation 012345 CorrosiveΩ Optimal Cao and Caldeira, 2008 Aragonite Carbon dioxide level, Coral reef distribution, and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation 012345 CorrosiveΩ Optimal Cao and Caldeira, 2008 Aragonite Carbon dioxide level, Coral reef distribution, and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation 012345 CorrosiveΩ Optimal Cao and Caldeira, 2008 Aragonite Carbon dioxide level, Coral reef distribution, and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation 012345 CorrosiveΩ Optimal Cao and Caldeira, 2008 Aragonite Carbon dioxide level, Coral reef distribution, and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation 012345 CorrosiveΩ Optimal Cao and Caldeira, 2008 Aragonite Carbon dioxide level, Coral reef distribution, and chemical conditions helping drive reef formation 012345 CorrosiveΩ Optimal Cao and Caldeira, 2008 Aragonite Courtesy Lonnie Thompson Courtesy Lonnie Thompson Courtesy Lonnie Thompson Courtesy Lonnie Thompson Qori Kalis, Peru 1978 Courtesy Lonnie Thompson Qori Kalis, Peru 2002 Courtesy Lonnie Thompson 1900 2000 Courtesy Lonnie Thompson Whitechuck Glacier WA, USA 1973 PELTOMS 1900 2000 Mauri Pelto 2006 Anecdotes & Statistics Dyurgerov (2002), Dyurgerov and Meier (2005) fig by Rhode Dyurgerov and Meier (2005) fig by Rhode What if things aren’t simple? The case of forests With deforestation, CO2 is much higher but temperatures are slightly cooler Atmospheric CO2 Temperature Additional contribution from loss of CO2- fertilization of forests A2 Effect of loss of carbon from forests Global deforestation experiment: net temperature change (CO2 + biophysical) A2 Boreal Temperature change predictedTemperate in latitude-band deforestation simulations Tropical Predicted role of forests Tropical forests cool the planet Temperate (mid-latitude) forests do little Boreal forests warm the planet DesireDesire forfor Conservation improvedimproved well-beingwell-being ImpactsImpacts onon DemandDemand humanshumans forfor goodsgoods andand andand services ecosystems services Adaptation Efficiency ClimateClimate changechange && DemandDemand oceanocean forfor energyenergy acidification Climate Low-carbon COCO22 inin COCO22 intervention atmosphere emissionsemissions energy Forests, etc. Happiness and GDP usa People in Philippines and Brazil are just as happy as West Germans, Canadians, Japanese, and French but use 1/10th the energy Inglehart and Klingemann 2000. American income (and energy use) increases, but we do not become happier Myers, 2004 How do we know anything? • Thought, intuition, interior reflection • Unplanned direct experience • Family, friends, etc • TV, magazines, books, web sites, blogs, experts, idiots • Planned empirical investigation • Careful analysis and appraisal of multiple sources of information .
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