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Music in the Air Stairway to Heaven

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Music in the Air Stairway to Heaven EQUITY RESEARCH | October 4, 2016 MUSIC IN THE AIR STAIRWAY TO HEAVEN Streaming grows up and puts music back on path to growth after decades of disruption The music industry is on the cusp of a new era of growth after nearly two decades of disruption. The rising popularity and sophistication of streaming platforms like Spotify and Pandora is ushering in a second digital music revolution – one that is creating value rather than destroying it like the piracy and unbundling that came before. In this first of a “double album“ on the nascent industry turnaround, we lay DOUBLE out the converging trends that we expect to almost double ALBUM global music revenues over the next 15 years to $104bn, spreading benefits across the ecosystem. Lisa Yang Heath P. Terry, CFA Masaru Sugiyama Simona Jankowski, CFA Heather Bellini, CFA +44(20)7552-3713 (212) 357-1849 +81(3)6437-4691 (415) 249-7437 (212) 357-7710 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Goldman Sachs Goldman, Sachs & Co. Goldman Sachs Goldman, Sachs & Co. Goldman, Sachs & Co. International Japan Co., Ltd. Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non-US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. October 4, 2016 Global: Media Table of contents Stairway to Heaven: Streaming drives new era of growth 4 The ecosystem 6 Stairway to $50 bn of additional revenue opportunity 9 Regulation sets the stage – streaming positive for rights holders 15 An interview with… John Enser, Head of Music and Partner, Olswang 27 An interview with… Leslie Jose Zigel, Chair of Entertainment Practice, Greenspoon Marder 29 Streaming drives greater monetization for music owners 31 Streaming benefits from a growing and captive audience 39 A rising tide lifts (almost) all boats 51 Labels have the most to gain from the growth of streaming and growing competition among distributors 51 Music publishers should benefit from streaming growth but to a lesser extent than labels 56 An interview with… Jane Dyball, CEO of UK Music Publishing Association 59 Subscription streaming platforms have significant growth potential but also face growing competition 61 An interview with… Dr. Hans-Holger Albrecht, CEO of Deezer 68 Ad funded streaming to eat into terrestrial radio 70 Sync revenues: An additional growth opportunity for rights holders 75 Live entertainment will become more important and a growth opportunity for streaming platforms 76 Stock implications 78 Appendix 81 Disclosure Appendix 82 The prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of October 3, 2016. Contributing authors: Lisa Yang, Heath P. Terry CFA, Masaru Sugiyama, Simona Jankowski CFA, Heather Bellini CFA, Robert D. Boroujerdi, Hugo Scott-Gall, Piyush Mubayi, Brett Feldman, Drew Borst, Otilia Bologan, Mark Grant, Yusuke Noguchi, Matthew Cabral, Shateel T. Alam, Stephen Laszczyk, Aditya Buddhavarapu, Katherine Tait. We also would like to thank Annabel Hazlitt and Kieran Chalmers for their contribution to this report. Don’t miss Vol. 2: ‘Music in the Air: Paint it Black’ In the second of our “double album” on the music industry’s return to growth, we assess the risks and scenarios that could derail our thesis. Access the report below and visit our portal to watch a video summary of our thesis. Vol. 2: Music in the Air – Paint it Black Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 2 MUSIC’S RETURN TO GROWTH in numbers EASY LISTENING ROOM TO GROW IN PAY-TO-PLAY Audio streams consumed per day Paid streaming penetration globally as a 630 by the US population during 2% % of smartphone subscribers. (p. 9) 1H2016—a 97% yoy jump. (p. 32) million Percentage of the DM population that pays to listen to music. According to The number of streaming <50% YouTube, only 20% of people globally platforms available globally. The have ever paid for music. (p. 31) 400 US alone boasts 57. (p. 32) The growth in paid streaming The number of tracks available on +60 subscribers globally between 2010 and 30 million Spotify compared to the number of 2015, bringing the total to 68mn people. tracks available at a Walmart million Associated revenue grew from $0.3bn to vs. 21,000 store. (p. 32) $2.3bn. (p. 39) THE PAYMENT GAP MILLENNIAL APP-ETITE Royalty paid by traditional radio to labels 0 and artists in the US. (p. 18) Of the 10 most-used apps by Millennials, the 4 number that are music-related. (p. 47) Share of music listening on YouTube compared to the share of global 40% / 4% recorded music revenue generated by Proportion of Spotify listeners that are YouTube. (p. 25) 77% Gen Z/ Millennials. (p. 47) EMERGING MARKETS LISTENING LIVE Piracy rates in China, India, Mexico, and Brazil, according to IIPA, implying a 24 million / 40% 90% huge potential for better quality (paid/free) streaming services. (p. 43) Average unsold concert tickets in the US per year because of lack of awareness of the events. Streaming sites like Pandora Additional revenue (equivalent to 10% are attempting to use behavioral and geo-targeting to better of the global recorded music market) that $1.5 match ticket supply and demand, which could help recover can be generated with a 1% increase in some of the estimated $2bn in lost revenue. (p. 14) paid penetration in EMs. (p. 45) billion ALL ABOUT THAT BASE Current paid subscriber base for popular streaming platforms (p. 33) 54mn AMAZON PRIME MUSIC 17mn 3mn APPLE MUSIC PANDORA 6mn DEEZER 40mn SPOTIFY October 4, 2016 Global: Media Stairway to Heaven: Streaming drives new era of growth We believe new technology changes such as the emergence of internet radio and music streaming are driving a new era of growth for the recorded music industry. New tech enablers such as Spotify, Apple or Pandora have disentangled music content from its delivery. The resulting convenience, accessibility and personalization has driven more consumption of legal music and greater willingness to pay for it, at a time of improving connectivity and growing consumer preference for accessing rather than owning music. Unlike its predecessor, this “second” digital revolution creates more value for rights holders (rather than destroys it), shifting revenue streams from structurally declining markets (physical, download sales) to a significantly larger new revenue pool (ad-funded and subscription streaming). This shift has enabled the recorded music market to return to growth in 2015 following almost two decades of value destruction led by piracy and unbundling. We believe the overall music industry, including recording, publishing and live, is now set to double to over $100 bn by 2030. In this first of a “double album“, we explore the converging trends that make this digital revolution different to and more profitable than the last. Streaming drives greater monetization of music content… By revolutionizing the listening experience, making it seamless and personalized, streaming improves the monetization of music content through 1) a range of subscription streaming options with multiple price points that address consumers willing to pay for better access and convenience, and 2) ad-funded, free streaming that addresses consumers not able or willing to pay (therefore reducing piracy). Moreover, streaming improves the discoverability of catalogues and increases their value. … while benefitting from a growing and captive audience We see particularly attractive forces supporting streaming growth: Room to grow penetration of subscription services in DMs, currently at 3%. We see scope to catch up with the Nordics, already at over 20% as user mix continues to evolve favourably towards paid tiers. Globally, we forecast paid streaming to grow to 9% of the smartphone population in 2030 from 2% in 2015. The nascent music markets in EMs, which stand to benefit from improving recognition of IP, new business models (ad-funded, prepaid, telecom bundles, etc.) and innovative payment capabilities. EMs accounted for just 10% of the global recorded music market in 2015 and the Chinese music market was smaller than that of Sweden. Media consumption habits of Generation Z and Millennials, who are the ideal audience for streaming given their inherent characteristics of being “digital natives” focused on experience and convenience. Millennials already spend more on music than the average person in the US driven by paid streaming and live music. Further benefit from telecom and tech companies’ large marketing budgets and existing customer base as these players increasingly leverage music content to drive greater differentiation of their services and upselling. Further upside from regulatory changes Convoluted rules and regulations dictate the flows of payments from platforms to rights holders, and understanding these intricacies and their evolution is essential. We believe the emergence of new digital distribution models is positive for rights holders given a more attractive royalty structure in the US and see further upside from potential regulatory changes which could reshape future flows of payments from platforms (especially YouTube and on-demand streaming services). Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4 October 4, 2016 Global: Media A rising tide lifts (almost) all boats; industry responses will be key In addition to the structural and regulatory tailwinds highlighted above, we believe industry responses will be critical in shaping the future growth of the industry which has only started to recover.
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