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Karpowership 20 October 2016 Europe/United Kingdom Equity Research Diversified Commercial Services Aggreko (AGGK.L) Rating (from NEUTRAL) UNDERPERFORM Price (18 Oct 16, p) 957.50 DOWNGRADE RATING Target price (p) (from 1065.00) 740.00 Market Cap (£ m) 2,365.3 Enterprise value (£ m) 2,928.6 Competition risks increasing *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each analyst's or each team's respective sector. ■ Cut to U/P on competition concerns: We lower our rating on Aggreko to ¹Target price is for 12 months. Underperform (from Neutral) and lower our TP to 740p (from 1065p) Research Analysts reflecting material cuts to our medium term EPS estimates and expected Karl Green returns profile of the group. Significant FX tailwinds support 2016E and 44 20 7888 2629 [email protected] 2017E EPS, masking assumed pricing pressure in the Argentina rebid Andy Grobler, CFA process, but our 2018E EPS fall by 15% as we factor in the impact of 44 20 7883 5943 significant fleet growth from the privately-owned global #2 player. [email protected] ■ Karpowership could displace AGK as the global #1: KPS expects to end 2016E with a fleet c.60% the size of AGK's Utility Power Solutions fleet and, on our analysis, has a current fleet + fleet under construction equivalent to 128% of AGK's historically highest return division. KPS' proven HFO solution already supplies base-load and 'mid-merit' electricity at prices lower than many EM thermal power plants. KPS is also pioneering floating LNG storage & regasification power plants and water desalination ships. KPS is able to target inland customers via interconnectors as well as coastal locations (where the majority of global GDP is generated). AGK's ambitious cost and technology innovation initiatives will continue to make the group a credible global contender in the space, especially in off-grid applications where both falling costs and improving technology (including batteries) continue to stimulate the adoption of distributed power generation. But as the industry matures, we see further scope for margins and returns to be eroded. ■ Catalysts: AGK is scheduled to publish a Q3 update on 16th November. ■ Valuation: AGK trades on 12.4x our revised 2017E EPS, though these estimates are vulnerable to rebid uncertainty, especially in Argentina. The stock trades below its 10Y median P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples, but our DCF and EV/IC analysis (50/50 weighted to derive our 740p target price) which captures future expected dual pressures on returns from increased competition and utility client procurement sophistication. Financial and valuation metrics Year 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Revenue (£ m) 1,561.0 1,606.9 1,803.1 1,812.1 Aggreko is the current global market leader EBITDA (£ m) 556.0 535.3 584.8 587.1 in the provision of temporary power solutions Pre-tax profit adjusted (£ m) 256.00 236.44 265.40 256.30 to a wide range of end market verticals, CS EPS (adj.) (p) 72.60 65.87 73.84 71.17 ranging from short-term emergency response Prev. EPS (p) - 68.79 76.30 83.81 work to the provision of long-term distributed ROIC (%) 12.9 11.2 11.8 11.2 generation capacity in emerging markets. P/E (adj.) (x) 13.2 14.5 13.0 13.5 P/E rel. (%) 81.0 84.7 88.0 102.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.1 5.5 5.0 4.8 Aggreko's fleet is principally based on diesel reciprocating engines, though also offers gas Dividend (12/16E, £) 27.12 Net debt/equity (12/16E,%) 52.9 units and is innovating in the areas of HFO Dividend yield (12/16E,%) 2.8 Net debt (12/16E, £ m) 581.9 BV/share (12/16E, £) 4.3 IC (12/16E, £ m) 1,680.8 and hybrid renewable solutions to expand its Free float (%) 100.0 EV/IC (12/16E, (x) 1.8 addressable market. Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 20 October 2016 Aggreko (AGGK.L) Price (18 Oct 2016): 957.50p; Rating: (from NEUTRAL) UNDERPERFORM; Target Price: (from 1065.00p) 740.00p; Analyst: Karl Green Income statement (£ m) 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Company Background Revenue 1,561 1,607 1,803 1,812 Aggreko PLC is engaged in the rental of power generation & EBITDA 556 535 585 587 temperature control equipment. The Company provides its solution Depr. & amort. (281) (277) (296) (311) with 144 service centers & offices in 34 countries & is organized EBIT 275 258 289 277 around 2 lines of business: Local & International Power Projects. Net interest exp. (23) (26) (27) (24) Associates 0 0 0 0 Blue/Grey Sky Scenario PBT 256 236 265 256 Income taxes (64) (64) (74) (72) Profit after tax 192 173 191 184 Minorities -0 -0 -0 -0 Preferred dividends - - - - Associates & other (6) (4) (2) (1) Net profit 186 169 190 183 Other NPAT adjustments (24) (12) (4) (3) Reported net income 162 157 185 180 Cash flow (£ m) 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E EBIT 275 258 289 277 Net interest (24) (26) (27) (24) Cash taxes paid (91) (64) (74) (72) Change in working capital (80) (62) (57) 4 Other cash and non-cash items 246 274 298 314 Cash flow from operations 326 380 428 498 CAPEX (254) (294) (337) (330) Free cashflow to the firm 72 87 91 168 Acquisitions (18) 0 0 0 Divestments 17 15 10 10 Other investment/(outflows) 0 0 0 0 Cash flow from investments (255) (279) (327) (320) Net share issue/(repurchase) 2 1 1 1 Dividends paid (70) (69) (71) (75) Issuance (retirement) of debt 6 93 (31) (104) Our Blue Sky Scenario (p) 1335.00 Cashflow from financing (62) 24 (101) (178) Our blue sky scenario of 1335p is predicated on EV/IC analysis Changes in net cash/debt 5 (93) 31 104 which assumes 2018E ROIC of 12.0% in Rental Solutions, 11.9% in Industrial Power Solutionsa and 16.8% in Utility Power Solutions. Net debt at start 494 489 582 551 The key differences vs. our core scenario: (1) the assumption that Change in net debt (5) 93 (31) (104) sustainable growth is higher in Utility and WACC lower as the group Net debt at end 489 582 551 447 successfully migrates to longer term, lower risk contracts and (2) Balance sheet (£ m) 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E cost savings and scale benefits catalyse RoIC recovery. Assets Total current assets 747 860 958 963 Our Grey Sky Scenario (p) 495.00 Total assets 2,050 2,170 2,303 2,320 Our grey sky scenario of 495p is predicated on EV/IC analysis which Liabilities assumes 2018E ROIC of 8.5% in Rental Solutions, 7.9% in Total current liabilities 363 406 447 455 Industrial Power Solutionsa and 9.8% in Utility Power Solutions. We Total liabilities 935 1,071 1,081 985 assume 10% WACC in Utility as the group is forced into higher risk Total equity and liabilities 2,050 2,170 2,303 2,320 territories to offset competitive pressure in lower risk markets and Per share 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E assume that only the Rental Solutions business is capable of No. of shares (wtd avg.) (mn) 256 257 257 258 beating its risk adjusted WACC on a 3 year view. CS EPS (adj.) (p) 72.60 65.87 73.84 71.17 Prev. EPS (p) - 68.79 76.30 83.81 Share price performance Dividend (p) 27.12 27.12 28.48 29.90 Free cash flow per share (p) 28.16 33.77 35.28 65.26 1,950 Key ratios and valuation 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E 1,700 Growth/Margin (%) Sales growth (%) (1.0) 2.9 12.2 0.5 1,450 EBIT growth (%) (11.3) (6.0) 11.8 (4.3) 1,200 Net income growth (%) (14.4) (9.1) 12.3 (3.4) EPS growth (%) (12.1) (9.1) 11.8 (3.5) 950 EBITDA margin (%) 35.6 33.3 32.4 32.4 700 EBIT margin (%) 17.6 16.1 16.0 15.3 Pretax profit margin (%) 16.4 14.7 14.7 14.1 Jan- 15 Jul- 15 Jan- 16 Jul- 16 Net income margin (%) 11.9 10.5 10.5 10.1 AGGK.L FTSE ALL SHARE INDEX Valuation 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E EV/Sales (x) 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 5.1 5.5 5.0 4.8 The price relative chart measures performance against the FTSE ALL SHARE EV/EBIT (x) 10.4 11.4 10.1 10.2 INDEX which closed at 3804.2 on 18/10/16 Dividend yield (%) 2.83 2.83 2.97 3.12 On 18/10/16 the spot exchange rate was £.89/Eu 1.- Eu.91/US$1 P/E (x) 13.2 14.5 13.0 13.5 Credit ratios (%) 12/15A 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Net debt/equity (%) 43.9 52.9 45.1 33.5 Net debt to EBITDA (x) 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.8 Interest coverage ratio (x) 12.0 9.9 10.5 11.4 Source: FTI, Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse Securities (EUROPE) LTD.
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