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STRATEGIC SAUDI ARABIA UPDATE • Strategic Analysis • Insight News 12 July 2017 Volume 1, Week 26 + 27 STRATEGIC SAUDI ARABIA UPDATE • Strategic Analysis • Insight News www.verocy.com SAUDI ARABIA STRATEGIC UPDATE Volume 1, Week 26 + 27 12 July 2017 STRATEGIC ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 2 Saudi Arabia opens up military deals Russia ................................................................... 2 Russian LNG targeted by Aramco ................................................................................... 3 Saudi internal discussions to change OPEC cut strategy? ................................................ 4 OPEC exports under pressure. Saudi Manifa problem sign of troubles? ........................... 6 STRATEGIC INSIGHT NEWS ...................................................................................... 9 Saipem awarded contracts, change orders in Saudi Arabia, West Africa and Caspian Sea ............................................................................................................................... 10 Is Saudi Arabia Depending Too Much On The Ghawar Field? ........................................ 10 130% spike in Saudi women joining workforce; 11.1 million expats in private sector ...... 12 Saudi Arabian soldier killed, three wounded in explosion: state media ...........................13 Schneider Electric appoints new Country President for Saudi Arabia and Yemen ...........13 Saudi KACST to set up 600 more companies to provide 3,600 jobs ................................13 Aramco, Dussur, Hyundai Heavy collaborate to build engines & pumps in KSA ............. 14 Saudi Arabia Delays Energy-Subsidy Cuts ..................................................................... 15 SABIC begins commercial ops at KEMYA JV ................................................................. 15 Jordan exports to Saudi Arabia down by 20% in Q1 ....................................................... 15 Saudi Arabia to host 2020 G20 summit ......................................................................... 16 Asia accounted for 66% of Saudi Aramco crude exports in 2016 .................................... 16 Bahri Logistics adds Alexandria as port call .................................................................... 17 UK arms sales to Saudi Arabia ruled lawful.................................................................... 18 Aramco to spend $300b as CEO frets about world oil supply ......................................... 18 Petro Rabigh says no updates on capital hike ................................................................ 19 Maaden begins trial ops at Waad Al-Shamal project ..................................................... 19 Morgan Stanley names Alajaji as Saudi CEO ................................................................. 20 Oil pact monitors won't discuss further cuts at July meeting: report .............................. 20 670,000 expats to leave Saudi Arabia in 3 years ............................................................. 20 Saudi Arabia executes four people convicted of terrorism in Qatif ................................ 20 UK contractor Carillion pulls out of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar ............................... 21 Saudi Arabia approves launching an ‘Industrial Energy City’ in the Eastern Province ..... 21 Saudi Arabia invites Turkish investors for 2030 Vision ................................................... 21 Saudi Arabia invites bids for rail projects ....................................................................... 22 What the Qatar Crisis Means for Middle East Equities in July......................................... 22 About VEROCY Exports ‘unfeasible’ even if tariffs cut by 70%, says Riyad Cement CEO ......................... 23 Verocy is a boutique consultancy that Saudi water ministry to privatize three sanitation projects ............................................ 24 provides risk integrated strategy services and solutions for companies Zain Saudi in talks for $500 mln tower sale: report ........................................................ 24 and organizations that need to Saudi Aramco spent $9.2 bln on locally-made products in 2016 .................................... 24 develop and manage the value of Saudi Steel Pipe wins SAR 245 mln contract from Saudi Aramco .................................. 24 assets and resources in the MENA- Saudi Aramco's Manifa oilfield production hit by technical issue: report ........................ 25 region. UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Egypt issue joint statement on Qatar .......................... 25 Follow the External (Balance of Payments) Breakevens of the Oil Exporters ................. 26 ABOUT THE EDITORS .................................................................................................. 27 SUBSCRIBTION INFORMATION ................................................................................... 27 For more information, please visit: www.verocy.com. COMMENTARY 12 July 2017 SAUDI ARABIA OPENS UP MILITARY DEALS RUSSIA On June 11 Russian news agency TASS reported technology and start manufacturing in the STRATEGIC that Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed an $3.5 billion kingdom. This conditional agreement is a first step ANALYSIS arms deal. Sergey Chemezov, general director of also towards a Saudi local defense industry. Russian state-owned corporation Rostec, stated to Moscow is currently assessing its options with the media that the deal will be finalized during regards to the Saudi proposal. A possible option, Saudi King Salman’s next visit to Russia, which is as Chemezov said, would be that Russia will set up expected before the end of 2017. The current arms a light weapons production plant in Saudi Arabia, deal has been in the offing since 2012, when a most probably Kalashnikov. Rostec is a Moscow- preliminary agreement, valued at that time $20 headquartered state-run company that specializes billion, was signed. The 2012 deal however hit rock in manufacturing and exporting high-tech military bottom after that Saudi Arabia stipulated in their products. demands that Russia would not be selling C-300 long-range SAM to Iran. Moscow didn’t want to comply to the latter, as also is shown by C-300 deliveries to Iran. However, the discussions continued, as Saudi Arabia, even that it is still largely relying on Western (US-UK) arms technology and products, wants to diversify its arms contracts. Russia is the world’s second largest weapons exporter with total sales exceeding $15 billion annually. In contrast to traditional arms deals, Saudi Arabia Last month, Dmitry Shugaev, head of the Russian now is keeping to its promise that in future all Federal Service on Military-Technical Cooperation deals will be linked to technology transfer to and (FSMTC), indicated already that Riyadh and manufacturing in Kingdom. Rostec CEO Chemezov Moscow were proceeding their military talks. The acknowledged that Saudi Arabia has stipulated media effects of the highly published Saudi-US that the deal will come into effect on condition arms deals was already waning, it seemed. that Moscow provide Riyadh with transfer of Shugaev indicated that both sides were very interested in a military-technical cooperation. “Agreement between Saudi Arabia and the USA, or any other NATO member, will not affect our willingness to cooperate on mutually beneficial terms,” he underlined. Just before, the US and Saudi Arabia had signed a $110 billion arms deal. Russian sources have indicated that Saudi Arabia also is interested in the delivery of T-90MS battle tanks. In addition to Riyad, another GCC member is also discussing new arms deals with Moscow. Saudi’s close-ally and brother-in-arms Bahrain is likely to expand its military cooperation with Moscow. The latter would be very interesting, as Bahrain currently hosts one of the two main US military strongholds in the region. 2 COMMENTARY 12 July 2017 RUSSIAN LNG TARGETED BY ARAMCO Saudi Arabia’s investment drive in Russia could get a boost if Riyadh would be interested in taking part in Russia’s Arctic project. The latter message was given by Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak, who openly reiterated that Russia’s energy cooperation with Saudi Arabia was "top-flight", but would deepen further if Riyadh took up an offer to participate in Russia's Arctic gas project. Since 2016, Moscow and Riyadh are showing an increased willingness to cooperate globally, as has been shown in the OPEC – Non-OPEC oil production cut agreement. The latter’s success is still fledgling, but both countries now seem to be different options of participation in Arctic LNG-2". open for further deals. Saudi sovereign wealth "Our colleagues (in Saudi Arabia) were interested fund PIF, in cooperation with SAGIA and SAMA, in it and have been looking at the proposals," he have become very active in Russian economic said. The Russian LNG option has been on the sectors. Multibillion investments have been screen of Aramco for longer. Last month, when promised and the PIF is already taking part in visiting Russia, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al- Russia’s main investment fund RFID. Falih stated to Russia's TASS news agency that "all is possible but it's premature to talk about The offer made entails that Aramco could have a specifics." At the same time, it has not been a role in the Arctic LNG-2 project, led by Novatek, secret that Aramco currently is setting a major gas which aims to start building the first processing strategy, in which investments globally in gas and unit,
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