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Demographic Trends and Forecasts in the Philadelphia Region

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Demographic Trends and Forecasts in the Philadelphia Region Demographic Trends and Forecasts in the Philadelphia Region Prepared by the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission for the Philadelphia Cultural Management Initiative April 2008 Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission 190 N. Independence Mall West 8th Floor Philadelphia, PA 19106-1520 P: 215-592-1800 F: 215-592-9125 Created in 1965, the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC) is an interstate, intercounty and intercity agency that provides continuing, comprehensive and coordinated planning to shape a vision for the future growth of the Delaware Valley region. The region includes Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties, as well as the City of Philadelphia, in Pennsylvania; and Burlington, Camden, Gloucester and Mercer counties in New Jersey. DVRPC provides technical assistance and services; conducts high priority studies that respond to the requests and demands of member state and local governments; fosters cooperation among various constituents to forge a consensus on diverse regional issues; determines and meets the needs of the private sector; and practices public outreach efforts to promote two-way communication and public awareness of regional issues and the Commission. Our logo is adapted from the official DVRPC seal, and is designed as a stylized image of the Delaware Valley. The outer ring symbolizes the region as a whole, while the diagonal bar signifies the Delaware River. The two adjoining crescents represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania and the State of New Jersey. DVRPC is funded by a variety of funding sources including federal grants from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and Federal Transit Administration (FTA), the Pennsylvania and New Jersey departments of transportation, as well as by DVRPC’s state and local member governments. Funding for this report and its research was provided by the William Penn Foundation. The authors, however, are solely responsible for its findings and conclusions, which may not represent the official views or policies of the funding agencies. DVRPC fully complies with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and related statutes and regulations in all programs and activities. DVRPC’s website may be translated into Spanish, Russian, and Traditional Chinese online by visiting www.dvrpc.org. Publications and other public documents can be made available in alternative languages or formats, if requested. For more information, please call (215) 238-2871. Demographic Trends and Forecasts in the Philadelphia Region Table of Contents Section I: Background and Introduction 01 Background 01 Introduction 01 Section II: Baseline Data 05 Age and sex 05 Race and ethnicity 09 Ancestry 09 Educational attainment 11 Income 13 Households and families 13 Housing tenure and costs 15 Occupation 18 Section III: Environmental Justice 19 Section IV: Historic Trends 29 Population 29 Age and sex 30 i Demographic Trends and Forecasts in the Philadelphia Region Table of Contents (continued) 30 Race and ethnicity 32 Households 32 Income 33 Residential building permits 33 Mortgage lending activity 35 American Community Survey data 37 Section V: Socioeconomic Forecasts 37 Methodology: Forecasts by age and sex 38 Methodology: Forecasts for race, ethnicity, income and household type 38 Population Forecasts 41 Age and Sex 41 Race and ethnicity 41 Household income 43 Household type 45 Section VI: Summary ii Demographic Trends and Forecasts in the Philadelphia Region List of Tables Table 1: County planning areas 02 Table 2: Planning areas with the highest population density, 2000 05 Table 3: Planning areas with the highest percentages of elderly and near-elderly residents, 2000 07 Table 4: Planning areas with the highest percentages of minority and/or Hispanic residents, 2000 09 Table 5: Differences in educational attainment, 2000 11 Table 6: Planning areas with the highest percentages of elderly households, 2000 13 Table 7: Planning areas with the highest percentages of renter and owner-occupied units, 2000 17 Table 8: Environmental justice characteristics and thresholds 19 Table 9: Population change in selected planning areas, 1980-2000 29 Table 10: Changes in the percentage of residents by age cohort, 1980-2000 30 Table 11: Planning areas with the greatest change in the percentage minority, 1980-2000 31 Table 12: Change in household income, 1980-2000 32 Table 13: Planning areas that issued the most residential building permits, 2000-2006 33 Table 14: Change in the average home mortgage loan amount, 2000-2005, 34 Table 15: Change in the number of home mortgages issued, 2000-2005 34 iii Demographic Trends and Forecasts in the Philadelphia Region List of Maps Map 1: County planning areas (CPAs) 03 Map 2: Residents per square mile by CPA, 2000 06 Map 3: Percent 65 years and older by CPA, 2000 08 Map 4: Percent non-White and/or Hispanic, 2000 10 Map 5: Percent of adults with at least a four-year college degree by CPA, 2000 12 Map 6: Average household income by CPA, 2000 14 Map 7: Percent single-parent households with children under 18 years by CPA, 2000 16 Map 8: Minority concentrations by census tract 21 Map 9: Hispanic concentrations by census tract 22 Map 10: Limited English proficiency by census tract 23 Map 11: Disabled population concentrations by census tract 24 Map 12: Elderly population concentrations by census tract 25 Map 13: Poverty concentrations by census tract 26 Map 14: Carless household concentrations by census tract 27 Map 15: Female head of household with child by census tract 28 Map 16: Forecasted absolute population change by CPA, 2000-2020 39 Map 17: Forecasted percent population change by CPA, 2000-2020 40 Map 18: Forecasted percent 65 years and older by CPA, 2020 42 iv Demographic Trends and Forecasts in the Philadelphia Region List of Appendices Appendix A: County planning area maps and lists of component municipalities Appendix B: Population by sex and population density, 2000 Appendix C: Population by age, 2000 Appendix D: Race and ethnicity, 2000 Appendix E: Primary ancestry, 2000 Appendix F: Highest education level completed (adults 25 years and older), 2000 Appendix G: Households and family types, 2000 Appendix H: Household income, 1999 Appendix I: Percent of income spent on selected housing costs (owner-occupied units), 2000 Appendix J: Rental housing affordability, 2000 Appendix K: Occupation of the employed civilian population, 2000 Appendix L: Population change, 1980-2000 Appendix M: Population by age, 1980-2000 Appendix N: Population by race, 1980-2000 Appendix O: Ethnicity, 1980-2000 Appendix P: Households and average household size, 1980-2000 Appendix Q: Household income, 1980-2000 Appendix R: Residential construction permits issued, 1990-2006 Appendix S: Home purchase mortgage lending, 2000 versus 2005 v Demographic Trends and Forecasts in the Philadelphia Region List of Appendices (continued) Appendix T: American Community Survey data, 2002-2006 Appendix U: Population, 2000-2020 Appendix V: Population by age and sex by planning area, 1990-2020 Appendix W: Population by race, 2000-2020 Appendix X: Population by ethnicity, 2000-2020 Appendix Y: Household income, 2000-2020 Appendix Z: Household types, 2000-2020 vi Demographic Trends and Forecasts in the Philadelphia Region Section I: Background and Introduction includes DVRPC’s nine member counties (Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Philadelphia counties in Southeastern Pennsylvania and Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Background and Mercer counties in Southern New Jersey) and New Castle County, Delaware. These planning areas were initially defined While the overall population and employment of the Philadelphia based on county planning area definitions used by DVRPC‘s region has remained relatively stable over the past decades, the Transportation Modeling Division to aggregate and display data. location of the region’s people and jobs is shifting, with some These areas were then reviewed by each of the county planning areas realizing significant gains in residents and jobs and other staff and revised as appropriate, to ensure consistency with areas experiencing losses. Socioeconomic characteristics of the county planning and data collection efforts. Map 1 illustrates the population are likewise shifting, with many communities realizing 80 planning areas used in this study and Table 1 lists these significant changes in median income, household type and size, planning areas by county. Individual county maps with planning age, race, and ethnicity. Changing demographics will significantly area boundaries and a list of each planning area’s component impact the cultural needs, demands, and preferences in these municipalities are provided in Appendix A. communities. In order to achieve their goals and secure their financial futures, the multitude of organizations that produce and Baseline data was compiled for each planning area, including: market cultural opportunities throughout the region must be able to adapt to their changing audiences. • Total population • Age and sex In 2008, the Philadelphia Cultural Management Initiative (PCMI) • Race, ethnicity, and ancestry and the Greater Philadelphia Cultural Alliance will conduct • Educational attainment primary market research on cultural participation in the • Household types Philadelphia region, and the Pennsylvania Cultural Data Project • Household income has compiled information on baseline arts activity. DVRPC’s • Housing costs and affordability contribution to this overall effort to understand
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