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Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. (NVMI) April 16, 2019 INITIATING COVERAGE Innovating the Future of Metrology; Initiating Coverage with a Buy Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. (NVMI) BUY Stock Rating $33.00 We are initiating coverage of Nova Measuring Instruments (NVMI) with a Buy rating Price Target and Price Target of $33, based on 18x our CY20 NG EPS (ex SBC) estimate. Nova is a pure-play wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) vendor participating exclusively in the Process Control optical and materials metrology market. Nova is one of three participants in the thin- film metrology market, which is one of the fastest growing process control segments N. Quinn Bolton, CFA with a ~20% 2014-2018 CAGR. We are positive on Nova’s growth potential in the long run reflecting the company’s leadership position in integrated OCD, growth prospects (212) 705-0322 [email protected] for the company’s unique and innovative XPS technology for materials metrology and Charles Shi, Ph.D. the anticipated market introduction of two new technologies with at least one expected toA metrologybegin generating pure play revenue in 2019. (415) 262-4868 [email protected] . Nova is a pure-play WFE vendor solely focused on the optical Michelle Waller thin film metrology segment of process control, one of the fastest growing process control segments with a ~20% 2014-2018 CAGR. Similar to the deposition, etch and (212) 705-0295 CMP equipment markets, optical thin film metrology is benefiting from the adoption of [email protected] multipleThe leader patterning in integrated in advanced OCD logic and the increasing layer counts in 3D NAND. Since its founding in 1993, Nova has been an innovator of integrated metrology solutions and has established the market leadership position, including in CMP. Nova is well positioned to benefit from increasing CMP process control demand and its leadership position in the foundry market where CMP intensity is high and fast growing. According to CMP market leader, AMAT, the number of CMP steps in wafer manufacturing has increased with the proliferation of 3D device architectures in logic and memory. This trend should continue as the leading logic IDMs and foundries transitionXPS gives toNova 10/7/5nm a unique and position Gate-All-Around in materials (GAA) composition architectures. metrology . With its unique X-Ray technology (XPS) used to measure both film thickness and material composition, Nova stands to benefit from several long term growth drivers within Stock Price Performance optical thin-film and materials metrology. Nova’s XPS technology is unlike other Price (USD) materials metrology methods used today, and its early success in gaining share within Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. 04/16/19$34.00 Nova continues its strong history of innovation the memory market is a sign of this technology’s strong future, in our view. $32.00 . Nova expects to bring two new $30.00 technologies to market in 2019, one of which is expected to generate revenue before $28.00 the end of the year. While details of these two new technologies remain limited, the $26.00 company expects both programs, which have been in development with lead customers $24.00 Jul-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Aug-18 for nearly three years, to address both the memory and foundry/logic end markets and May-18 to increase the company’s 2020 TAM by $200MM. We believe the new technologies may combine OCD and X-Ray into a single platform to address unique challenges in the 3D NAND and advancedFY 12/31/2018 logic segments. FY 12/31/2019 FY 12/31/2020 Market Data Actual New New Rev. (MM) Growth Price (04/15/2019) $28.65 251.1A 230.0E 265.0E Op. Margin 52-Week Range $32.00 - $22.86 13.1% (8.4)% 15.2% EPS: 1Q 26.8%A 18.9%E 22.9%E Shares Outstanding 28.02 EPS: 2Q 0.54A 0.29E 0.41E Market Cap (MM) $802.9 EPS: 3Q 0.46A 0.29E 0.46E EPS: 4Q Avg. Daily Volume 137,050.0 0.52A 0.33E 0.47E EPS: Year Total Debt/Cap. 0.00% 0.59A 0.44E 0.52E P/ERatio 2.11A 1.35E 1.85E 13.6x 21.2x 15.5x Pro forma earnings estimates displayed above excludeRelevant stock compensation disclosures expenses. begin on page 21 of this report. Needham & Company, LLC April 16, 2019 Nova Measuring is a Pure-Play in Optical Thin Film Metrology, Process Control’s Fastest Growing Segment Nova Measuring Instruments is a pure-play WFE vendor solely focused on the optical thin film metrology segment of process control. As a major segment of WFE, process control is known for its higher GMs and relatively lower revenue volatility, but it has been one of the slower growing major WFE segments, significantly lagging behind etch, deposition as well as lithography over the past two years. However, optical thin film metrology has been a bright spot in process control in terms of its growth. In the recent peak-to-peak WFE cycle between 2011 and 2017, according to Gartner, optical thin film metrology grew at 7.7% CAGR, outperforming process control and WFE that grew 3.0% and 5.0% in the same period, respectively. While the growth in the optical thin film metrology segment has been more evident in the WFE upturn periods, the segment has historically weathered the WFE downturns better than the broader WFE market. For example, from 2015 to 2017 WFE saw a step function in its growth rate as the market size grew from ~$33bn to ~$51bn, a 24.5% CAGR, and during this period, thin film metrology grew in line with WFE from $518MM in 2015 to $811MM in 2018, a 25.1% CAGR. Whereas, in the last major WFE downturn during 2011-2013, the optical thin film metrology segment had a -6.6% CAGR and the total process control market segment’s CAGR was -4.6%, while the total WFE market had a steeper decline with a -13.1% CAGR. As a participant in a market segment that has delivered solid growth in upturns and more moderate declines in downturns, Nova, in our opinion, is an attractive growth company uniquely positioned in a favorable segment of process control. Figure 2 Growth of Optical Thin Film Metrology Figure 1 Optical Thin Film Metrology Outperforms WFE Through WFE Downturn (2011-2013)and and Process Control Upturn (2015-2017) Source: Gartner, Needham and Company LLC Source: Gartner, Needham and Company LLC Similar to the deposition, etch and CMP equipment markets, optical thin film metrology has benefited from the adoption of multiple patterning in advanced logic and the increased number of layer counts in 3D NAND. As structures become more complex and grow vertically, the number of etch and deposition steps increases and so does the need for metrology equipment. Etch and deposition process steps become more difficult to execute flawlessly as layers of 3D structures increase given the need for accurate alignment and precise drilling between each deposition step in addition to the increasing number of materials used in today’s process. The optical thin film metrology equipment sales in 2011-2017 were strongly correlated with deposition, etch and CMP equipment sales, while the correlation to lithography equipment sales was weaker, which implies that material-based scaling, rather than lithography-based scaling, is the stronger demand driver for optical thin film metrology. Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. Page 2 of 22 Needham & Company, LLC April 16, 2019 Figure 3 Optical TF Metrology vs. Deposition Sales Figure 4 Optical TF Metrology vs. Etch Sales (2011- (2011-2017) 2017) $900 $900 y = 0.0531x + 142.03 $800 $800 y = 0.0455x + 281.81 R² = 0.8723 R² = 0.8322 $700 $700 $600 $600 $500 $500 $400 $400 Optical TF Metrology Sales($MM) Optical TF Metrology Optical Metrology TF Sales ($MM) $300 $300 $5,000 $7,000 $9,000 $11,000 $13,000 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 Deposition Equipment Sales ($MM) Etch Equipment Sales ($MM) Source: Gartner, Needham and Company LLC Source: Gartner, Needham and Company LLC Figure 5 Optical TF Metrology vs. CMP Sales (2011- Figure 6 Optical TF Metrology vs. Lithography Sales 2017) (2011-2017) $900 $900 $800 $800 y = 0.312x + 217.83 R² = 0.8586 $700 $700 y = 0.0596x + 125.95 R² = 0.2717 $600 $600 $500 $500 $400 $400 Optical TF Metrology Optical Metrology TF ($MM)Sales Optical TF Metrology Sales($MM) $300 $300 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000 $8,000 $9,000 $10,000 CMP Equipment Sales ($MM) Lithography Equipment Sales ($MM) Source: Gartner, Needham and Company LLC Source: Gartner, Needham and Company LLC In advanced logic, the demand for dimensional and compositional metrology has been driven in part by the transition to High-K Metal Gates (HKMG) in FinFETs and Gate-All-Around (GAA) architectures, Cobalt interconnects and the increasing use of compound ALD materials. As the layer count continues to increase in 3D NAND, memory IDMs see an increasing need to measure 3D profiles and map materials. With Nova’s 2018 revenues split evenly between both the memory and foundry/logic end markets, we believe the company is well positioned to benefit from the increasing metrology demand in both end markets. Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. Page 3 of 22 Needham & Company, LLC April 16, 2019 Figure 7 Metrology Demand Drivers in Advanced Logic Source: Nova Measuring Figure 8 Metrology Demand Drivers in 3D NAND Source: Nova Measuring NVMI also enjoys a competitive landscape favorable to small WFE players like itself. In major segments of the process control equipment, market share tends to gravitate to large cap WFE companies.
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