Perth Cbd Office Market Overview September 2014
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RESEARCH PERTH CBD OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW SEPTEMBER 2014 HIGHLIGHTS Although vacancy is increasing, Prime grade net incentive levels There were three major office leasing activity is being stimulated have risen to circa 25% which is transactions within the Perth CBD by tenants taking advantage of the expected to favour tenant during the first half of 2014, competitive rental rates and migration to higher quality totalling $569.5 million. incentives on offer. premises and into the CBD. KEY FINDINGS SUPPLY & DEVELOPMENT The effects of a soft Perth CBD leasing market during 2013/14 have materialised with negative net absorption The Perth CBD vacancy rate increased to 11.8% (188,536m2) of –70,626m2 recorded for the twelve months to July as at July 2014 (PCA). 2014, resulting in a rise in the vacancy rate to 11.8%. 2 Approximately 169,080m of Office space in the Perth CBD increased Sub-lease/Backfill office supply is currently under by 8,195m2 (0.51%) during the six construction in the Perth CBD. months to July 2014, with a further Limited backfill space has entered the 2 18,507m forecast to become available market over the past six months due to Tenant demand remains soft, over the second half of the year (see pg. low levels of new supply, however, though a pickup is expected in 3 supply map for further details). The 2015. backfill is likely to make an impact in late bulk of new supply is due for completion 2014 and 2015 as new developments 2 in 2015 and comprises 154,150m of reach completion. The latter part of 2014 2 Offshore investors continued to NLA. In total, 169,080m of supply is will see Aurecon‘s move to 861 Hay target Perth office assets. currently under construction and due for Street leaving 5,144m2 of backfill space completion over the next 18 months. Of at 256 Adelaide Terrace. In mid-2015, 2 this supply, 96,265m , or 57% has been the West Australian State Government 2 pre-committed. As a result, 72,815m of will consolidate their offices to the office space will be vacant upon Treasury Building, at 58 Barrack Street, completion unless further pre- which will see Crown Law and the commitments are secured thus adding Department of the Attorney General further downside risk to Perth’s expected relocate from Westralia Square at 141 St vacancy. Buildings currently under Georges Terrace making 20,000m2 of construction equate to an increase in backfill available. However, with a lease CBD stock of 10.5%, a large portion of expiry in 2020 at 141 St Georges Terrace, which will be made up at the Kings the State Government is expected to Square development. KS1-4 will reallocate the majority of backfill to other 2 encompass 61,172m of NLA, with internal departments. Additional backfill 2 34,925m of this space having already is anticipated when Legal Aid relocate been pre-leased to Shell, John Holland from 55 St Georges Terrace to 32 St and HBF. Georges Terrace (4,000m2 of backfill), GHD move into 999 Hay Street (4,000m2), 2 A further 71,500m has been granted Shell move into KS2 Kings Square approval and is forecast to be completed (5,500m2), and HBF (owner occupier) by 2018, which includes the Milligan move into KS4 Kings Square (6,500m2) Square and 98 Mounts Bay Road during the same period. However, it is developments. Beyond this, around likely that the backfill left by HBF at 125 2 133,719m of mooted projects are in the Murray Street will be withdrawn from the 2 pipeline, with a further 337,000m of market for either refurbishment or commercial space anticipated to come conversion purposes. Lastly, 5,543m2 of MATT WHITBY online in the longer term, including backfill is expected when Corrs and Head of Research & Consulting Elizabeth Quay, Perth City Link and the Deloitte move to 123 St Goerges Terrace Waterbank development. in Q4 2015. TABLE 1 Perth CBD Office Market Indicators as at July 2014 Annual Net Average Net Average Total Stock Vacancy Annual Net Average Core Grade Absorption Face Rent Incentive (m²) Rate (%) Additions (m²) Market Yield (%) (m²) ($/m²) (%) Prime 931,217 9.7 -37,451 5,602 617—751 25 7.00—8.25 Secondary 673,087 14.6 -33,175 1,495 464—507 25 8.00—9.00 Total 1,604,304 11.8 -70,626 7,097 Source: Knight Frank/PCA 2 PERTH CBD OFFICE SEPTEMBER 2014 RESEARCH MAJOR OFFICE SUPPLY 861 Hay St - 10,947m² [Aurecon] 1 Perth Diocese - Q4 2014 - 50% committed 565 Hay St # - 7,560m² 2 Perth Diocese - Q4 2014 - seeking pre-commitment Treasury Building - 30,196m² [WA Gov't] 3 Mirvac / Keppel REIT consortium - Q2 2015 - 100% committed 32 St Georges Tce # - 15,045m² [Legal Aid] 4 5 Private - Q2 2015 - 40% committed 11 18 999 Hay St - 10,160m² [GHD] 13 16 12 5 QUBE - Q2 2015 - 59% committed 17 9 KS2 (Kings Square)*, 376 Wellington St - 19,425m² [Shell] 6 DEXUS & DWPF - Q2 2015 - 100% committed 6 KS1 (Kings Square)*, 376 Wellington St - 22,247m² 1 8 7 DEXUS & DWPF - mid 2015+ - seeking pre-commitment 7 KS3 (Kings Square)*, 376 Wellington St - 6,500m² [John Holland] 8 DEXUS & DWPF - mid 2015+ - 100% pre-committed 10 22 KS4 (Kings Square)*, Wellington St - 13,000m² [HBF] 9 HBF - late 2015 - 69% committed 123 St Georges Tce (Brookfield Place Sth) - 34,000m² [Corrs, 10 Deloitte, Brookfield] - Brookfield - Q4 2015 - 41% committed 21 Veil 253, 253 St Georges Tce - 3,577m² 11 14 Primewest - Q4 2015 - seeking pre-commitment 47-59 Milligan St (Milligan Square) - 21,000m² 3 12 Georgiou - mid 2016 - seeking pre-commitment 2 15 Capital Square, 98-124 Mounts Bay Rd - 50,500m² [Woodside] - H.O.A 13 AAIG - mid 2018 - 100% committed 20 Crn Barrack St & The Esplanade - 60,000m² [Chevron] 4 14 Chevron - DA Pending 19 100 Murray St # - 4,000m² 15 AWD Diversified - seeking pre-commitment 950 Hay St (old Melbourne Hotel site) - 11,219m² 16 Oakesfield - New DA Pending 239 St Georges Tce (Bishops See no.2) - 30,000m²+ 17 Brookfield/Hawaiian - seeking pre-commitment KS5 (Kings Square) * - 38,000m² 18 Seven Entertainment - DA Pending 19 480 Hay St - 35,000m² BGC - DA Pending - seeking pre-commitment 36 St Georges Tce - 16,500m² 20 Uniting Church of Australia - DA Pending Elizabeth Quay - 140,000m² excluding 60,000m² Chevron site 21 Leighton / Broad Construction Services Perth City Link * - Circa 120,000m² exclusive of Kings Square 22 Mirvac/Leighton development consortium 2 23 Waterbank, near The Causeway - 17,000m Lend Lease / MRA - Initial site works Under Construction DA Approved / Confirmed / Site Works Mooted / Early Feasibility NB. Dates are Knight Frank Research estimates 23 Office NLA quoted Major tenant precommitment in [brackets] next to NLA # Major refurbishment * Mirvac/Leighton awarded the Perth City Link development contract excluding the Kings Square precinct. KS1-5 are being developed by Leighton / Seven Group. 3 TENANT DEMAND & RENTS The July 2014 release of data from the 2012. The majority of this space PCA saw the total vacancy rate for the (30,660m2) became available during the FIGURE 2 Net Absorption and Vacancy Perth CBD increase to 11.8%, up from 12 months to January 2013 which saw (‘000m2 and %) per six month period 9.0% in January 2014. The key drivers of the sublease vacancy increase from 0.5% the vacancy increase were soft tenant to 2.4% of total available stock. During 140 Projection demand and business contraction. the past 18 months, the rate at which 120 15% Increases in vacancy were experienced sublease space has entered the market 100 within both prime and secondary assets. has significantly declined. The sublease Prime-grades recorded a rise from 7.2% vacancy increased during the six months 80 10% to 9.7% to a total vacancy of 90,158m2. to July 2014, albeit marginally (843m2) 60 Within the prime-grade, vacancy in and currently accounts for 2.7% of total 40 5% Premium buildings increased for the first stock. 20 time in 18 months rising from 1.4% in 0 0% January 2014 to 3.9% in July 2014, -20 2 Net Absorption representing an 8,020m rise in available -40 -5% NLA. The vacancy within A-grade The Perth CBD market recorded negative Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 buildings increased for the fifth net absorption of 70,626m2 over the Net Absorption 6 Mths to (LHS) Total Vacancy (RHS) consecutive half year period, rising from financial year to July 2014 as company 10.2% in January 2014 to currently sit at contraction and tenant relocation made Source: Knight Frank 12.7%. its impact. This was made up of negative 33,938m2 in the 6 months to January improvement from the negative 21,296m2 The secondary market is now 2014 and negative 36,688m2 during the recorded to January 2014. Further experiencing the highest vacancy rate current period. All building grades negative absorption was experienced in since January 2005, totalling 14.6% up experienced negative absorption during the secondary market (-18,188m2) which from 11.5% in January 2014. Increases the 6 months to July 2014 demonstrating was fairly evenly spread between B, C were recorded across all secondary the pace at which vacancy is outstripping and D graded assets. It is anticipated grades. B and C grade buildings are demand. Prime grade absorption totalled that negative net absorption levels will now showing vacancy rates of 13.1% (up negative 18,500m2 and accounted for continue through to 2015 under the from 11.3%) and 16.3% (up from 12.3%) 50.4% of the total.