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Perth Cbd Office Market Overview March 2015

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Perth Cbd Office Market Overview March 2015 RESEARCH PERTH CBD OFFICE MARKET OVERVIEW MARCH 2015 HIGHLIGHTS A significant increase in backfill By the end of 2015, it is expected A depreciating Australian dollar and space will make an impact in 2015. that the vacancy rate will be in lower interest rates should attract New developments completing excess of 20%, as new supply international investor interest into during the year will add 149,601m2 comes online against a backdrop the Perth market. of NLA to the market. of soft demand conditions. KEY FINDINGS SUPPLY & DEVELOPMENT By July 2015, 52,502m2 of new supply is to be Total CBD stock increased to 2 2 completed, followed by 97,099m in the second half of 1,625,118m as at January 2015, following the completion of two the year. Overall, 62% of this new development has office buildings. been pre-committed. Approximately 149,600m2 of office supply is currently under As of late 2014, Perth CBD saw the construction and due for completion completion of refurbishment works at 565 Sub-lease/Backfill in 2015. Hay Street (Public Trustee Building) and Late 2014 saw Aurecon move to 861 Hay the newly developed 861 Hay Street Street leaving 5,144m2 of backfill space The Perth CBD recorded negative resulting in an increase to gross supply at 256 Adelaide Terrace. A significant net absorption in the six months during the six months to January 2015 of increase in backfill space in Perth CBD is to January 2015, prime falling by 24,097m2. There were also withdrawals 2 likely to make an impact in 2015 as new -13,786m and secondary recording of 3,283m2 arising over the same period. 2 developments reach completion. In the -16,796m . 565 Hay Street is currently vacant with first six months of 2015, backfill space of 7,700m2 available, while 861 Hay Street 16,000m2 from tenant relocations was 47% pre-committed by Aurecon It is expected that the vacancy including Shell, Legal Aid and HBF is translating to 5,144m2 still available to be rate will be in excess of 20%, by expected to enter the market. This is leased. the end 2015. followed by an even larger backfill impact of 35,432m2 during the second half of In addition, a further 149,601m2 of new 2015 from tenants such as Deloitte, supply is projected to be introduced to Ashurst, Corrs, GHD and Crown Law the market over 2015 from eight projects. relocating to the newly completed Across the projects, 92,953m2 or 62% buildings. has been pre-committed. There is a diversity of commitment levels across the The largest backfill space is attributed to developments with KS 2 (19,282m²), KS 3 consolidation of the WA State (5,675m²) and Treasury Building Government offices which will see Crown (30,196m²) fully committed to Shell, John Law relocate from Westralia Square at Holland and the WA Government 141 St Georges Terrace to the Treasury respectively. Building, leaving a backfill space of 20,000m2. However, with a lease expiry At this stage space remains available in in 2020 at 141 St Georges Terrace, the KS 4 (72% committed to HBF), 32 St State Government is expected to Georges Terrace (40% committed to reallocate the majority of backfill to other Legal Aid), 999 Hay St (59% committed internal departments. There will however by GHD), 123 St Georges Terrace (50% be some net inflow into the CBD also, committed to a range of professional with circa 8,000m2 of new space to be tenants) and KS 1 which is seeking absorbed by tenants currently occupying commitment. suburban office space, with Brookfield Multiplex and John Holland relocating to Beyond these projects under Brookfield Place 2 and KS3 respectively. construction, further office development BALVEEN KAUR in the medium term is expected to be Research Analyst—WA Sublease space continues to be a major limited to those projects which have factor within the Perth CBD office already achieved significant pre- market. The sublease vacancy crept up commitments such as Woodside’s marginally from 2.7% in July 2014 to Capital Square and the Chevron Building. 2.8% (up 2,305m2) as at January 2015. TABLE 1 Perth CBD Office Market Indicators as at January 2015 Total Stock Vacancy Annual Net Annual Net Average Net Average Average Core Grade (m²) Rate (%) Absorption (m²) Additions (m²) Face Rent ($/m²) Incentive (%) Market Yield (%) Prime 949,864 12.9 -32,286 24,010 593—731 30—35 7.00—8.00 Secondary 675,254 17.4 -34,984 4,999 439—482 30—35 8.00—9.00 Total 1,625,118 14.8 -67,270 29,009 Source: Knight Frank/ PCA 2 PERTH CBD OFFICE MARCH 2015 RESEARCH MAJOR OFFICE SUPPLY 861 Hay St - 10,947m² [Aurecon] 1 Perth Diocese - Completed - 50% committed 565 Hay St # - 7,560m² 2 Perth Diocese - Completed - seeking pre-commitment 32 St Georges Tce # - 15,045m² [Legal Aid] 3 Private - Q2 2015 - 40% committed KS2 (Kings Square)*, 376 Wellington St - 19,282m² [Shell] 9 4 DEXUS & DWPF - Q2 2015 - 100% committed 11 15 17 KS3 (Kings Square)*, 376 Wellington St - 5,675m² [John Holland] 12 5 13 DEXUS & DWPF - Q2 2015 - 100% pre-committed 6 KS4 (Kings Square)*, Wellington St - 12,500m² [HBF] 4 6 HBF - Q2 2015 - 72% committed 1 5 KS1 (Kings Square)*, 376 Wellington St - 22,543m² 7 7 DEXUS & DWPF - Q3 2015 - seeking pre-commitment Treasury Building - 30,196m² [WA Gov't] 8 Mirvac / Keppel REIT consortium - Q3 2015 - 100% committed 10 20 999 Hay St - 10,160m² [GHD] 9 QUBE - Q3 2015 - 59% committed 123 St Georges Tce (Brookfield Place 2) - 33,600m² [Ashurst, Corrs, 10 Deloitte, Brookfield] - Brookfield - Q4 2015 - 50% committed 19 Veil 253, 253 St Georges Tce - 3,577m² 11 16 Primewest - seeking pre-commitment Capital Square, 98-124 Mounts Bay Rd - 50,500m² [Woodside] - H.O.A 8 12 AAIG - mid 2018 - 100% committed - Initial site-works 2 14 239 St Georges Tce (Bishops See no.2) - 46,000m²+ 13 Brookfield/Hawaiian - Q4 2015 - seeking pre-commitment 3 100 Murray St # - 4,000m² 14 AWD Diversified - seeking pre-commitment 18 950 Hay St (old Melbourne Hotel site) - 10,000m² 15 Oakesfield - seeking pre-commitment Crn Barrack St & The Esplanade - 70,000m² [Chevron] 16 Chevron - DA Pending KS5 (Kings Square) * - 38,000m² 17 Seven Entertainment - DA Pending 480 Hay St - 34,000m² 18 BGC - DA Pending - seeking pre-commitment Elizabeth Quay - 130,000m² excluding 70,000m² Chevron site 19 Leighton / Broad Construction Services 20 Perth City Link * - Circa 120,000m² exclusive of Kings Square Mirvac/Leighton development consortium 2 21 Waterbank, near The Causeway - 17,000m Lend Lease / MRA - Initial site works Completed / Under Construction DA Approved / Confirmed / Site Works Mooted / Early Feasibility NB. Dates are Knight Frank Research estimates Office NLA quoted Major tenant precommitment in [brackets] next to NLA 21 # Major refurbishment * Mirvac/Leighton awarded the Perth City Link development contract excluding the Kings Square precinct. KS1-5 are being developed by Leighton / Seven Group. 3 TENANT DEMAND & RENTS The total vacancy rate continues to Net Absorption FIGURE 2 increase according to PCA January 2015 Perth CBD Historical Vacancy 2 data which recorded a total vacancy rate The Perth CBD market continued to Prime and Secondary grade (‘000m ) for the Perth CBD of 14.8%, up from experience negative net absorption over 11.8% in July 2014. Over the past year, the six months to January 2015. Prime 300 the prime vacant space increased by assets recorded -13,786m2 and 85% compared to secondary vacant 2 secondary assets recorded -16,796m . 250 space which increased by 52%. The The negative net absorption is also increasing prime vacancy in the Perth attributed to the increase in sublease 200 CBD is a direct result of the mining space available in the market as downturn, leading to business companies downsize. The Perth CBD 150 contractions and consolidation. recorded negative net absorption of 2 67,270m over the calendar year to 100 The prime vacancy has increased from January 2015 as company contraction 9.7% in July 2014 to 12.9%, recording a and tenant relocation made its impact. 50 total vacancy of 122,591m2. The premium building vacancy rate more 0 than doubled from 3.9% in July 2014 to 8.5% in January 2015 while the vacancy “Negative net Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 rate within A-grade buildings increased PRIME VACANCY SECONDARY VACANCY for the sixth consecutive half year period, absorption levels Source: Knight Frank/ PCA rising from 12.7% in July 2014 to 15.2%. will continue further pre-commitments are secured Similarly, the secondary market through 2015 thus adding further risk to Perth’s experienced increasing vacancy rate expected vacancy rate. levels, at 17.4%, up from 14.6% in July due to low 2014. While vacancy levels in C and D Knight Frank projects the vacancy rate grade assets recorded a marginal tenant demand.” to reach its peak in late 2015 and the improvement, B grade assets recorded first half 2016 in excess of 20%. the largest increase in vacant stock Vacancy rates should then gradually across all asset grades increasing from decline over the following two to three 2 2 60,820m in July 2014 to 80,814m in Much of the prime negative net years due to a significant reduction in January 2015. absorption has come from the premium the level of new supply and improved market, contracting by 14,917m2 over tenant demand which are expected to the past six months.
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