PRODUCT 08 Executive Summary
Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory of Campinas and Metropolitan Region of Campinas
PREFEITURA DE CAMPINAS June, 2019 CLIENT
PROJECT Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventory of Campinas and Metropolitan Region of Campinas
AUTHORS WAYCARBON Adriana Mello; [email protected] Breno Rates; [email protected] Bruna Dias; [email protected] Felipe Bittencourt; [email protected] Fernando Coelho; [email protected] Fernando Salina; [email protected] Flávia Perucci; [email protected] Isabela Aroeira; [email protected] Letícia Gavioli; [email protected] Mario Ramunno; [email protected] Matheus Brito; [email protected] Natalia D’Alessandro; [email protected] Pamela Silva; [email protected] Sarah Irffi; [email protected] Tiago Cisalpino; [email protected]
ICLEI Camila Chabar; [email protected] Gustavo Oliveira; [email protected] Igor Albuquerque; [email protected] Iris Coluna; [email protected]
PREFEITURA DE CAMPINAS Cezar Capacle; [email protected] Gustavo D´Estefano; [email protected]
Executive Summary – GHG Emission Inventory of Campinas and MRC ______
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 INTRODUCTION ...... 2
2 INVENTORY BOUNDARIES ...... 4
2.1 TERRITORIAL LIMIT ...... 4
2.2 TIME SPAN ...... 5
2.3 CONSIDERED GASES AND POLLUTANTS ...... 6
2.4 SECTORS AND EMISSIONS SOURCES ...... 6
3 RESULTS ...... 9
3.1 GEE EMISSIONS ...... 9
3.2 EMISSIONS OF REGULATED POLLUTANTS ...... 13
3.3 EMISSIONS FROM FIXED SOURCES ...... 13
3.4 EMISSIONS FROM MOBILE SOURCES ...... 14
4 SCENARIOS, GOALS AND ACTION PLAN ...... 17
5 RECOMMENDATIONS AND NEXT STEPS ...... 22
6 CONCLUSION ...... 24
7 REFERENCES ...... 26
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Executive Summary – GHG Emission Inventory of Campinas and MRC ______1 INTRODUCTION
In 2015, under the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), COP21, the Paris Agreement was signed with the participation of 197 countries and supranational blocs. The main outcome of this negotiation was the commitment of the subscribing countries, called "parties", to keep the global average temperature rise below 2ºC in relation to pre-industrial levels, aiming to limit the increase by 1.5ºC until the end of the 21st century (UNFCC, 2015). The Agreement requires the joint efforts of all parties who must submit their Nationally
Determined Contributions (NDC), as provided for in Article 4. These should incorporate efforts to reduce national emissions and adapt to climate change (UNFCC, 2015). Brazil submitted its commitments in 2015 and, in the following year, formally signed the Paris
Agreement, which entered into force on November 4, 2016. Considering 2005 as the base year, the country has committed to reduce GHG emissions by 37% by 2025, and 43% by
2030 (BRASIL, 2015).
The final text of Paris Agreement recognizes local governments as essential parts to speed up transformation in urban areas, due to their ability to implement local climate actions. The
Brazilian NDC itself reaffirms the importance of engaging municipalities and their efforts to combat climate change. The impacts of this change will directly affect the infrastructure of the municipalities, the quality of life of its inhabitants and the dynamics of urban services, so that a greater involvement in this theme is necessary to incorporate this cross-over in the urban planning.
Therefore, inventories of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and regulated pollutants in their territories are important management tools for the identification of GHG sources and sinks in different sectors and for accounting their respective emissions or removals. The estimated emissions of regulated pollutants are also important because of their significant impact on ecosystems and human health, especially in urban centers and metropolitan areas. Thus, action plans can be developed in accordance with the local reality, capacity and need.
Considering the need to deal with such challenges and counting on the intermediation of the Campinas Metropolitan Agency (AGEMCAMP in Portuguese), the 20 municipalities of the Metropolitan Region of Campinas signed a Memorandum of Understanding publicly assuming the commitment with the climate agenda, with the municipality of Campinas
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Executive Summary – GHG Emission Inventory of Campinas and MRC ______leading the process of elaborating the inventory of GHG emissions. In this context,
WayCarbon, in partnership with ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability, was hired by the Municipal Government of Campinas to provide specialized technical services for coordination and execution of activities related to the preparation of the Inventory of Direct and Indirect Greenhouse Effect Gases (GHG) and Pollutants of Campinas and the
Metropolitan Region of Campinas (MRC).
The main objective of this study was to create technical subsidies for defining goals and more effective proposals to mitigate the impacts of emission sources in the region. In addition to Campinas, the project also had the support of City Halls of the other 19 municipalities which are part of MRC, namely: Americana, Artur Nogueira, Cosmópolis,
Engenheiro Coelho, Holambra, Hortolândia, Indaiatuba, Itatiba, Jaguariúna, Monte Mor,
Morungaba, Nova Odessa, Paulínia, Pedreira, Santa Barbara d’Oeste, Santo Antônio de
Posse, Sumaré, Valinhos e Vinhedo.
For the preparation of the GHG Inventory, the chosen methodology was the one proposed by the GPC (Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories) developed by ICLEI, WRI (World Resources Institute) and C40 (Climate Leadership Group) in 2014, based on the National Inventory Guide, published in 2006 by the IPCC
(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). To estimate the emissions of atmospheric pollutants regulated by national and regional legislation, the method of the Environmental
Company of the State of São Paulo (CETESB) was adopted considering mobile sources and monitored emissions data provided by the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable
Natural Resources (IBAMA) for fixed sources.
This document aims to present the methodology used and the main results of the Inventory of Direct and Indirect Anthropic Emissions of Greenhouse Gases and Pollutants of Campinas and the Metropolitan Region of Campinas (MRC), as well as proposals for strategic goals and guidelines to cope with climate change in the region.
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Executive Summary – GHG Emission Inventory of Campinas and MRC ______2 INVENTORY BOUNDARIES
In order to develop the GHG Inventory through the GPC method, it is necessary first to define its boundaries, the limits for identification of gases, emission sources, the geographic area and the time span covered. Inventory boundaries are designed to provide a region with a comprehensive understanding of where emissions are coming from, as well as an indication of where it could act or influence change (GPC Protocol 2014).
2.1 TERRITORIAL LIMIT This inventory has as territorial delimitation the Metropolitan Region of Campinas (MRC), a regional unit of the State of São Paulo created by State Complementary Law No. 870, dated June 19, 2000, consisting of 20 municipalities, as may be observed in Figure 1.
Municipalities MRC
Figure 1 - Map of the geographical location of the Metropolitan Region of Campinas Source: Author’s elaboration.
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The region has an area of 3,792 km2 and a population in 2014 of 2,976,433 inhabitants. With a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of about U$ 50 billion in 2016, the region is in a prominent position, accounting for more than 8% of the GDP of the State of São Paulo. It presents a diversified industrial production, mainly in dynamic sectors with high scientific and technological input, a very significant agricultural and agri-industrial structure, and the presence of Viracopos Airport, the second largest in Brazil, located in the city of Campinas. Of every three tons of goods exported and imported by air in the country, one passes through Viracopos, which together with Guarulhos and Rio de Janeiro airports account for 82% of the annual load flow of this type of transport (AGEMCAMP, 2018). In inventories of cities and regions prepared using the GPC method, Scopes 1, 2 and 3 are defined according to the geographical location of the city or region of activities, as presented in Figure 2.
Figure 2 - Delimitation of scopes considered in the GPC method Source: Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories (ICLEI, 2016).
2.2 TIME SPAN The GPC method was designed to account for GHG emissions in a single reporting year, recommending to cover a continuous period of 12 months. Following this recommendation, the inventories were based on the year 2016 (January 1, 2016 through December 31, 2016), as this was the most recent common period of data available for all mapped emission sources, by municipality.
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2.3 CONSIDERED GASES AND POLLUTANTS According to GPC, the inventories should cover the seven GHG that are part of the Kyoto Protocol reporting: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrogen oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbon (HFCs), perfluorocarbon (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3). The MRC Inventory considered CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions according to the emission sources mapped and data availability. In the region, these gases are generated in the following ways:
CO2: generated by burning fossil fuels (such as coal, oil, natural gas and by-products) by mobile and stationary sources, in industrial processes, by the use of dolomitic limestone and urea fertilizers and by deforestation of native forest;
CH4: generated in the burning of fuels by mobile and stationary sources, the decomposition of organic matter in anaerobic treatment processes of effluents and solid waste, enteric fermentation of animals and animal waste management;
N2O: generated in the burning of fuels by mobile and stationary sources, in processes of treatment of effluents and use of nitrogen fertilizers. Regarding the inventory of air pollutant emissions, the regulated pollutants considered in this study are described below (CETESB, 2017): • Inhalable fine particles (MP2.5 and MP10); • Sulfur oxides (SOx); • Nitrogen oxides (NOx); • Carbon monoxide (CO); • Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs).
2.4 SECTORS AND EMISSIONS SOURCES GPC breaks down emissions data to enable the main sources of GHG to be identified. To do so, it determines six different sectors in which the emission activities can be allocated, which are: I. Stationary Energy: associated with the burning of fuels in residential, commercial and institutional buildings, manufacturing industries and construction, power plants and rural properties, including fugitive emissions occurring during the extraction, transformation and transportation of mineral coal, those generated in the processes the oil and gas industry and the production of fuels; II. Transportation: the use of vehicles and other mobile equipment generates GHG emissions from fuel burning or the use of electricity in electric vehicles;
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III. Waste: cities generate solid waste and effluents that can be treated within their limits (Scope 1) or outside them (Scope 3). GHG emissions come from the process of decomposition of anaerobic bacteria and / or by burning the waste in co-processing or incineration processes; IV. Industrial processes and product use (IPPU): GHG emissions from this sector are derived from industrial activities that are not related to the consumption of fuels for the generation of energy. All GHG emissions from industrial processes, product use and non-energy use of fossil fuels should be evaluated and reported in the IPPU sector; V. Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use (AFOLU): it generates GHG emissions through a variety of activities, including changes in land use that alter soil composition, methane produced in the digestive processes of livestock ruminants, and nutrient management for agricultural purposes; VI. Other Indirect emissions The emission sources considered in the MRC Inventory are presented in Table 1, categorized by scope and by sector, as described above. For this inventory, no sources of "Other Indirect Emissions" were identified. The Sectors, Sub-Sectors and emission sources included in the GHG inventory are presented in Table 1. Regarding emissions of regulated pollutants, there was a disaggregation between two sources: fixed and mobile. Fixed sources are those that occupy a relatively limited area allowing a direct evaluation at source that result from the industrial processes of production and the processes of energy generation. These processes release different substances, according to the raw materials, inputs and fuels used. The mobile sources are those that are dispersed in the community, and it is not possible to assess the source by source, mainly trucks, buses, automobiles, motorcycles, airplanes and helicopters (IEMA, 2009a).
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Table 1 - Sectors and subsectors included in the MRC GHG inventory for the year 2016
Sector Subsector Emission Sources
I.1 – Residential buildings I.2 – Commercial and institutional buildings I.3 – Manufacturing industries and Emissions from stationary I. Stationary construction combustion (consumption of NG, Energy I.4 – Energy Industry LPG and diesel oil) and REPLAN’s I.5 – Agriculture, forestry and fishing fugitive emissions. activities I.8 – Fugitive emissions from oil and natural gas systems
II.1 – On-road Emissions from mobile II. II.2 – Railway combustion in vehicles and Transportation II.4 – Aviation II.5 - Off-road aircrafts.
III.1 ‑ Disposal of waste in landfill III.4 - Anaerobic treatment of domestic effluents; Emissions from the treatment of III. Waste III.4 ‑ Treatment in septic tank of sanitary effluents and the disposal domestic effluents; of solid waste. III.4 ‑ Anaerobic treatment of industrial effluents.
Emissions from industrial IV. IPPU V.1 – Industrial processes processes (not associated with stationary combustion).
Emissions from methane V.1 – Livestock: cattle, buffaloes, produced in the digestive horses, goats, sheep, swine and birds; processes of livestock (ruminant animals), nutrient management V. AFOLU V.3 ‑ Aggregate sources and non-CO2 emission sources on land: application for agricultural purposes, changes of limestone, urea and nitrogen. in land use that alter the composition of the soil and application of fertilizers. Source: Author’s elaboration.
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3 RESULTS 3.1 GEE EMISSIONS In order to calculate the emissions in the Inventory, Climas was used, a calculation software developed by WayCarbon, which has a database with the most current emission factors available for each type of source (for example, Brazilian Program GHG Protocol to Brazil and, when not available, internationally accepted references as GHG Protocol, IPCC, EPA and DEFRA). The GHG emission results are presented according to the categorization defined by the GPC. The MRC emissions by sectors for the year 2016 are shown in the Figure 3.
MRC GEE Emissions - by sector 3,2% 2,9%
9,5% I. Stationary Energy: 4,790 thousand tCO2e
II. Transportation: 4,674 thousand tCO2e 42,7%
III. Waste: 1,066 thousand tCO2e
IV. IPPU: 330 thousand tCO2e 41,7% V. AFOLU: 359 thousand tCO2e
Figure 3 - Results of GHG emissions from the MRC in 2016 by sector1 Source: Author’s elaboration.
The Metropolitan Region of Campinas emitted a total of 11,218 thousand tCO2e in 2016 (emissions of Scope 1,2 and 3 were, respectively, 10,129.77; 914.07 and 175.09 thousand tCO2e), with the stationary energy sector accounting for 42.7% of total emissions, followed by the transportation sector with 41.7% and the waste sector with 9.5%. It can be observed that the stationary and transportation sectors account for almost 85% of the MRC emissions. Figure 4 presents the division of total GHG emitted by scope and subsectors.
1 This graph presents the combined emissions of Scope 1, 2 and 3.
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I. Stationary Energy
I.1. Residential buildings 2% 12% 360 8% I.2. Commercial and institutional buildings 330 I.3. Manufacturing industries and construction 1.066 I.4. Energy Industry 44% 33% I.5. Agriculture, forestry and fishing activities
II. Transportation
18% 4.674 II.1. On-road transportation
II.4. Aviation 82%
III. Waste III.1. Disposal of solid waste 22%
III.4. Disposal and treatment of domestic 48% effluent 4.790 III.4. Disposal and treatment of industrial 30% effluents
IV. IPPU
IV.1. Industrial Processes
V. AFOLU
IV. IPPU
III. Waste V. AFOLU II. Transportation 23% I. Stationary Energy V.1. Livestock
V.3. Aggregate and non-CO2 emissions
77%
Figure 4 -Scope emissions (in thousand tCO2e), by sector and subsector2 Source: Author’s elaboration.
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More than 90% of GHG emissions are Scope 1, i.e. emissions generated within cities. The subsectors that presented the highest relative emissions were transportation, mainly the terrestrial, with 34.1%, and the sub-sector of Energy Industry, belonging to the Stationary Energy sector, which represented 18.9% of the total3. Table 24 presents the total GHG emissions per municipality. Table 2 - MRC Total Emissions by City in 2016 Total City (thousand tCO2e) Americana 535.8 Artur Nogueira 81.86 Campinas 2,663.90 Cosmópolis 91.63 Engenheiro Coelho 41.25 Holambra 65.6 Hortolândia 238.04 Indaiatuba 585.26 Itatiba 329.5 Jaguariúna 658.66 Monte Mor 124.32 Morungaba 48.73 Nova Odessa 151.75 Paulínia 3,993.29 Pedreira 125.68 Santa Bárbara d'Oeste 315.39 Santo Antônio de Posse 92.48 Sumaré 597.16 Valinhos 302.91 Vinhedo 196.62 TOTAL 11,239.83 Source: Author’s elaboration. In an analysis by municipality, Paulínia was largely responsible for the total GHG emissions (36%) due to the presence of the industrial center and the largest oil refinery in Brazil, REPLAN. The second largest municipality in quantity of emissions was Campinas (24%), mainly due to Scopes 2 and 3
2 This graph shows the combined emissions of Scope 1, 2 and 3.
3 Percentage in reference to the total emission of the three scopes. (11,218.90 tCO2e).
4 Table 2 presents a different total from the one presented in Figure 3, since the accounting approaches are different (one evaluates the whole region and another each of the municipalities individually) which results and different values when we are evaluating solid urban waste.
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(28.8% and 25.7%, respectively), derived from the number of inhabitants of the municipality, which represents 37.5% of MRC. In the stationary energy sector, it was possible to notice that the production of fuels is the main responsible for the sector emissions, with 44.0% of representativity, followed by the consumption of electricity and of natural gas, with 19.1% and 18.1%, respectively. The Energy Industry subsector was the main responsible for GHG emissions (57.1%), due to REPLAN refinery's fuel production activities. In 2016, REPLAN's emissions accounted for 20% of Petrobras' total industrial process emissions. This is because REPLAN is Brazil's largest refinery in oil processing capacity: 69,000 m³/day, equivalent to 434 thousand barrels. Its production corresponds to approximately 20% of all oil refining in Brazil (Petrobras, 2018). The three municipalities with the largest participation in the total GHG emissions of the stationary energy sector in the MRC are Paulínia, Campinas and Americana with 2,654,876.4 tCO2e (71.7%), 240,776.7 tCO2e (6.5%) and 127,074.8 tCO2e (3.4%), respectively. The transportation sector, the second most representative, was responsible for an emission of 4,673 thousand tCO2e, of which 81.8% refers to on-road transportation and 18.2% refers to aviation. In the subsector of on-road transportation, the municipalities of Campinas, with 29.4%, and Paulínia, with 22.2%, together account for more than half of the emissions. These values were expected, since about 40% of the total fleet of vehicles registered in the MRC in 2016 (1,222,303 units) are from Campinas (CETESB, 2018). For Paulinia, the justification lies in the fact that 35% of all diesel fuel sold to the MRC in 2016 went to such municipality, most likely due to the large movement of trucks in the region because of the industrial hub. The aviation subsector is also important in the region due to the presence of Viracopos International Airport, the second cargo terminal in Brazil and located in Campinas. The use of aviation fuels for its operation resulted in an 850.5 thousand tCO2 emission, which impacted the emissions of Campinas, responsible for 88% of the emissions of this subsector. Emissions from the MRC waste sector in 2016 totaled 1,065 thousand tCO2e, of which 48.5% came from the treatment of industrial effluents, 21.7% from the disposal of municipal solid waste in landfills and 29.8% from the treatment of sewage. The industrial effluent emissions come from the beer industry located in Jaguariúna, and the paper and pulp industries located in Valinhos and Indaiatuba. In an analysis by municipality, Jaguariúna represents the majority of emissions from the waste sector, with 58.8% due to the presence of the AMBEV brewery, responsible for the production of 7% of the national beers, followed by Campinas, with 21.5% of representativeness due to the number of inhabitants and type of effluent treatment. The largest landfill of the MRC is located in Paulínia, which receives about 81.6% of all solid urban waste generated in the region, including Campinas and 14 other municipalities. The Paulínia Waste
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Treatment Plant has a biogas recovery station and burns 100% of the methane generated in its operation. The carbon dioxide generated by the biogas burning is categorized as renewable, so there is no GHG emission to be accounted in the inventory for this landfill, resulting in lower emissions in this sector when compared to other cities and regions. In 2016, emissions from the IPPU sector in the MRC totaled 328 thousand tCO2e, of which 87.8% were generated in the city of Paulínia due to the presence of the industrial hub mentioned above. In the AFOLU sector, the GHG emissions from the MRC totaled 0.36 Million tCO2e, with livestock farming being the most responsible for the emissions of this sector, with 77.4%. The emissions of this subsector are associated to the number of animals present in each municipality and Campinas (with 16.3% of representativity) presented the highest MRC emission, followed by Itatiba (13.5%) and Holambra (9.9%).
3.2 EMISSIONS OF REGULATED POLLUTANTS In the Inventory, the emission sources of regulated pollutants are divided into two categories: mobile sources (vehicular emissions) and fixed sources (emissions in industrial processes). For the estimation of emissions from mobile sources it was used the method developed in 2017 by the Environmental Company of the State of São Paulo (CETESB) in the "Vehicle Emissions of São Paulo in 2016" (CETESB, 2017). For fixed sources, the emissions data monitored were provided by the Brazilian Institute for the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA).
3.3 EMISSIONS FROM FIXED SOURCES According to the data collection procedure for the estimation of IPPU GHG emissions, emissions of regulated pollutants from fixed sources can also be provided directly by industries or calculated on the basis of quantities (by mass or volume) produced per year, by type of product and corresponding emission factors. 33 companies were mapped in the region and the pollutant emission data from the mapped industries were requested directly from IBAMA. The calculated emissions are shown in Table 3, by municipality. As expected, Paulínia has the highest emission for all pollutants because of the petrochemical complex activities and with most of the emissions coming from REPLAN, Brazil's largest oil refinery whose regulated pollutant emissions are inherent to the characteristics of its activities. The participation of REPLAN emissions in the MRC in 2016 for the regulated pollutants evaluated was 92.6% for CO; 80.6% for NOx; 90.0% for SO2 and 72.5% for PM.
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Table 3 - Emissions of regulated pollutants (t) from fixed sources of the MRC cities, in 2016
CO Emission NOx Emission SO2 Emission PM Emission City (t) (t) (t) (t)
Americana - 12.85 - 19.15
Artur Nogueira 22.04 13.26 3.51 14.54
Campinas - 51.99 3.85 33.29
Holambra - 13.87 0.56 0.50
Hortolândia - 298.00 - -
Indaiatuba - 3.81 - -
Itatiba 5.88 - 10.37 -
Jaguariúna 4.29 53.77 - 0.01
Paulínia 2,765.65 7,816.36 9,826.08 1,139.62
Santa Bárbara d'Oeste 87.77 104.36 - 57.76
Sumaré 59.13 156.15 23.08 45.41
Valinhos 37.02 59.63 1.17 14.55
Vinhedo - 0.01 - -
Total Geral 2,981.78 8,584.06 9,868.62 1,324.83 Source: Author’s elaboration.
3.4 EMISSIONS FROM MOBILE SOURCES Overall, vehicular emissions from municipalities vary according to the number and characteristics of the current fleet and the quantity of fuels purchased in 2016, which directly affect pollutant emissions. Table 4 shows the total emissions for each type of pollutant and municipality in MRC. Analyzing the emissions by municipality, Campinas stands out for all pollutants, since the city represents 42% of the total fleet of MRC vehicles. The municipality of Paulínia has a relevant role in the NOx, SO2 and PM emissions due to the large volume of diesel consumed in the city, possibly related to the industrial activities of the petrochemical complex.
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Table 4 - Emissions of regulated pollutants from mobile sources (t) of the MRC, by municipality in 2016
CO (t) NOx (t) PM (t) SO2 (t) VOC (t) City Emission Emission Emission Emission Emission
Americana 2,298.05 1.262,74 33,56 35,86 519,89 Artur Nogueira 480.21 175,65 5,38 4,1 100,33 Campinas 9,657.39 3,977.79 107.3 91.96 2,261.34 Cosmópolis 372.94 145.93 3.93 2.80 81.35 Engenheiro Coelho 120.42 95.31 3.10 2.43 25.86 Holambra 102.37 89.45 2.40 2.40 24.01 Hortolândia 1,768.77 550.78 13.57 11,36 378.54 Indaiatuba 2,030.67 574 16.04 13.41 442.23 Itatiba 1,060.01 501.77 14.14 13.09 238.33 Jaguariúna 608.66 287.64 7.7 8.27 127.83 Monte Mor 414.28 233.84 6.64 6.5 91.15 Morungaba 151.21 62.86 1.82 1.5 31.68 Nova Odessa 575.86 321.45 9 9.08 126.61 Paulínia 1,528.56 4,198.96 91.55 143.9 342.38 Pedreira 416.87 139.25 4.39 3.6 78.77 Santa Bárbara d'Oeste 1,867.50 503.08 13.86 10.64 387.93 Santo Antônio da Posse 441.19 222.99 6.11 5.88 83.83 Sumaré 2,278.64 1,179.12 27.42 30.23 493.38 Valinhos 1,480.31 735.96 18.6 13.6 340.72 Vinhedo 616.31 212.29 5.45 5.22 159.93 Total Geral 28,270.20 15,470.88 391.94 415.85 6,336.09 Source: Author’s elaboration.
CO and COV emissions are mainly associated with the use of light vehicles and motorcycles, being proportional to the greater number of vehicles of this nature. On the other hand, emissions of SO2, NOx and PM are mainly associated with the use of trucks and buses. Figure 5 shows the total emissions by type of vehicle and pollutant.
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Proportion by vehicle type 100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0% CO NOX COV SO2 PM
Light-duty passenger vehicles Light commercial vehicle Motorcycles Trucks Bus
Figure 5 - Emissions of regulated pollutants from mobile sources by vehicle type. Source: Author’s elaboration.
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Executive Summary – GHG Emission Inventory of Campinas and MRC ______4 SCENARIOS, GOALS AND ACTION PLAN
In the process of elaborating the Action Plan for the Metropolitan Region of Campinas, the discussion was expanded with the municipalities that integrate the region, in order to contemplate specific demands of the different typologies. To accomplish these objectives, two meetings were held, one in person and other online, aiming to collect contributions to the preparation of the Action Plan. During the workshops, four mapping exercises were used as basis for the technicians to define goals and strategies to cope with climate change, considering short (2020), medium (2024) and long term (2030) horizons. For short-term goals (until 2020), it was sought to incorporate projects that are already under way in the metropolitan region, as well as to promote studies and diagnoses for themes with which the municipalities in the region have a greater familiarity. The medium-term goals (up to 2024) were qualified with a higher level of ambition, considering the expansion of existing projects and infrastructures, as well as suggesting the elaboration of regional plans for different sectors, such as the sectoral plans for the industries. Finally, the long-term goals (up to 2040) consider even more ambitious and optimistic scenarios, signaling the future vision of the technicians present in the workshop, with the commitment to reach an inclusive and sustainable region. After setting the goals, an exercise was performed to identify projects needed to be implemented in the MRC so that the objectives could be achieved in the different time frames. In this activity, 33 projects in 14 lines of action were identified, covering five municipalities. Among the main issues mentioned were the lack of technical capacity observed in municipalities and difficulties of articulation between them. About 25% of future projects are oriented precisely to fill these gaps. The technicians of the involved municipalities also defined five sectors that should guide the development strategies of the region, namely: transportation and mobility; energy; industry; waste and sanitation and land use. It should be noted that these sectors are also important in the Integrated Urban Development Plan (PDUI), a legal planning instrument that establishes guidelines, projects and actions to guide urban and regional development, seeking to reduce inequalities and improve the living conditions of the MRC’s population. It was therefore sought to explore the synergies between the PDUI, whose implementation is in progress, and the measures proposed here, integrating sectors and guidelines. In order to build the emission reduction targets of the Metropolitan Region of Campinas, a percentage reduction of a set of mitigation actions adopted in Latin American cities was estimated,
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Executive Summary – GHG Emission Inventory of Campinas and MRC ______along with the necessary infrastructures to implement the strategies proposed by the managers of the MRC. For the emissions of pollutants, parameters were estimated using averages of GHG reduction associated with the sectors that directly influence pollutant emissions: Industry, Transportation and Energy. The result is shown in Table 5.
Table 5 - Emission reduction targets for the MRC (Reduction percentage over base year) Emission reduction targets for MRC 2020 2030 2040 2060
Energy 3.40% 6.80% 13.60% 27.20%
Agriculture 5.90% 11.80% 23.60% 47.20%
Transportation 5.30% 10.60% 21.20% 42.40%
Industry 2.69% 5.38% 10.76% 21.52%
Waste 3.60% 7.20% 14.40% 28.80%
Total 4.0% 7.9% 15.9% 31.8%
Pollutants 3.80% 7.59% 15.19% 30.37% Source: Author’s elaboration.
Table 6 - Comparison of the MRC's Goals with other Brazilian metropolises City Reduction Goal Base Target (%) Scenario/Year Year
BAU scenario Metropolitan Region of ABC (São Paulo 20 (projections 2030 State) from 2014)
BAU scenario Recife 21.18 (projections 2037 from 2012)
BAU scenario Fortaleza 11 (projections 2030 from 2012)
Rio de Janeiro 20 2005 2020
Metropolitan Region of Campinas 15.90 2016 2040 Source: Author’s elaboration.
Science-Based Targets (SBT) were created to provide companies with emission reduction targets aligned to the level of decarbonization required to maintain the global average temperature increase below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels (average between 1850 and 1900), as
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Executive Summary – GHG Emission Inventory of Campinas and MRC ______established by IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (2014). Thus, in order to limit the effect of CO2 emissions, the anthropogenic sources of this gas must be limited to a certain amount or budget, the so-called carbon budgets. In that sense, higher emissions in a certain period result in a lower budget and, therefore, lower emission levels in the following period. Despite being business-oriented, the SBT calculation methodology can be adapted for determining emission reduction targets for countries or even cities through the sectoral approach. To evaluate the scenarios of the emissions model in relation to the 2°C limit targets defined in the Paris agreement, an adaptation of the Science Based Targets methodologies for the MRC was made. The projected emission scenarios Business as Usual, MRC targets, and 2°C scenario limits are presented in Figure 6 and Figure 7 for energy and industry emissions5.
Scenarios: GHG Emissions - Energy 12.000 Business as usual 10.000 RMC Goal 2°C scenario target 8.000
6.000
4.000
Emissions in thousand tCO2e 2.000
- 2016 2020 2024 2032 2036 2044 2052 2060 Year
Figure 6 - Emission scenario (thousand tCO2e) for the MRC Energy sector Source: Author’s elaboration.
5 It should be emphasized here that the purpose of the charts is to present the comparison between the estimated goals for the MRC based on the two methodologies developed in this report. However, it was not possible to obtain an evaluation of the transportation sector due to the incompatibility of the level of disaggregation of this sector in the calculation methodology of the SBTs and the methodology of the Third Brazilian Emissions Inventory (MCTI, 2016), and it was not possible to elaborate an adaptation. Therefore, only the energy and industrial sectors’ scenarios are presented.
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Executive Summary – GHG Emission Inventory of Campinas and MRC ______
Scenarios: GHG Emissions - Industry 800 Business as usual 700 RMC Goal 600 2°C scenario target
500
400
300
200 Emissions in thousand tCO2e 100
0 2016 2020 2024 2032 2036 2044 2052 2060 Year
Figure 7 - Emission scenario (thousand tCO2e) for the MRC Industry sector Source: Author’s elaboration.
Regarding energy, since Brazil has a low-carbon energy matrix, the targets of the 2ºC scenario are very close to the business as usual scenario. For the industrial sector, reaching the 2ºC scenario results in an inverse situation, where the MRC targets do not reach the objectives defined in the Paris Agreement for a maximum limitation of 2ºC, but they are very close. However, the difference from the Business as Usual scenario for the goal scenarios and the one necessary to limit the heating to 2 degrees is significant. The consolidated scenario, on the other hand, shows that the long-term goals are in line with the goals of the Paris agreement.
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Executive Summary – GHG Emission Inventory of Campinas and MRC ______
Scenarios: GHG Emissions - Consolidated 30.000 Business as usual 25.000 RMC Goal 2°C scenario target 20.000
15.000
10.000
Emissions in thousand tCO2e 5.000
0 2016 2020 2024 2032 2036 2044 2052 2060 Year
Figure 8 – Consolidated emissions scenario for the MRC (thousand tCO2e) Source: Author’s elaboration.
The global and local understanding of climate change and its impacts, costs and potential coping actions are not static, they continue to evolve. Thus, there are new scenarios modelled with increasingly sophisticated projections and more technical inputs. Therefore, the action plan should be reviewed periodically so that there is follow-up and adaptation to circumstances that should be diagnosed as inefficient. The MRC should evaluate the implementation of the proposed targets annually and update the Action Plan in four-year cycles starting from the launch of the initial strategy, preferably prior to the preparation of the Multi-Annual Plans (PPA, in Portuguese), so that the proposed guidelines are included in the strategic planning of municipalities.
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Executive Summary – GHG Emission Inventory of Campinas and MRC ______
5 RECOMMENDATIONS AND NEXT STEPS Limiting the temperature rise to 2ºC with real efforts to keep it below 1.5ºC will depend on rapid advances in how society develops and transits through four systems: energy; land use and ecosystems; urbanization and infrastructure, and industries (IPCC, 2018). The MRC, with its trend of population growth for all types of municipalities, as well as the perspective of GDP increase, which have a dynamic role in the estimation of emissions, presents a pessimistic scenario with a strong tendency to increase GHG emissions and atmospheric pollutants. Urban growth will require an extensive (re)construction of urban infrastructures incorporating the climate change coping component. Buildings should be rethought with improved facilities to include energy efficiency and distributed power generation; regional mobility should be geared towards replacing fossil fuels and encouraging active mobility; waste should be valued; an enhancement of ecosystem services and a number of other relevant measures should be promoted with regard to the abatement of GHG emissions, reduction of air pollutants and adaptation to climate change. Successfully implementing climate action requires the application of local policies, structuring institutional arrangements, and promoting access to innovations, technologies and funding lines. Thus, to strengthen the climate agenda, it is recommended to implement a regional policy for coping with climate change and reduce air pollutant emissions, as well as a regulated Action Plan in the form of rules, decrees or laws. In order to promote the participatory construction of regional policy as well as the shared management of the Action Plan, it is suggested that a climate and regional governance should be structured based on the formation of a Thematic Chamber on Climate Change and Resilience and the Committee on Local Climate Change and Resilience or a management committee, according to the following characterization:
Thematic Chamber on Climate Change and Resilience - a group of municipal officials, essential for continuity and to lead local action. The Chamber must be inter-secretariat and technical, directly responsible for executing and monitoring the strategies of the region, for the coordination and implementation of the action plan, as well as for the necessary articulation for the development of a regional policy. It should also participate in regional meetings to expand partnerships with different stakeholders to pool resources and ensure adaptation among municipalities, secretariats and jurisdictions to implement the MRC strategy.
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Executive Summary – GHG Emission Inventory of Campinas and MRC ______
Local Climate Change and Resilience Committee (Local Manager) - a structure that forms the governance of the MRC, including municipalities, civil society, academia, stakeholders and different secretariats of municipal, regional and state administrations. For this, an institutional structure can be created or adapted, with recommendations for its formalization through an intermunicipal decree. The committee will be responsible for decision-making processes, deliberation, organization of meetings and training workshops, as well as facilitating the integration of the theme with government policies, ensuring the implementation and monitoring of low carbon strategies and reduction of atmospheric pollutant emissions. It is recommended that each project or program of the strategy should be monitored and evaluated considering the needs for adjustment or adoption of any additional measure. At the same time, the plan should be monitored fully, following the monitoring specifications of the Action Plan. It is also important that municipalities in the metropolitan region incorporate the actions identified in the Action Plan into their master plans and into the municipal budget, so that the implementation of the measures identified becomes feasible. The relevance of integration with regional policy and urban infrastructure beyond municipal jurisdiction, through horizontal collaboration with other cities and metropolitan consortia, is also highlighted in order to improve the quality and implementation of the programs. On the other hand, vertical integration and collaboration with other levels of government strengthen the capacity to implement the strategy and allow alignment and combined efforts with state and federal policies. Another important aspect is improving the connection with cities around the world, participating in global commitments and campaigns, joining networks, entities and regional, national and international working groups or groups formed by municipalities to exchange experiences and innovative practices, address challenges and find solutions. It is recommended, following the model of Campinas, that the other municipalities of the MRC become members of the Global Compact of Mayors for Climate and Energy. This initiative can increase the chance of access to resources, as well as enhancing cooperation between different levels of government and enabling partnerships with other cities at the international level. Finally, it is recommended to select business models and to map funding sources for the implementation of projects and measures identified as priorities. Climate financing is considered one of the main means of implementing the agenda, having different origins, such as municipal, national and international funds. .
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Executive Summary – GHG Emission Inventory of Campinas and MRC ______6 CONCLUSION
The path to achieve a low-carbon economy that ensures the sustainability of systems and prevents the global average temperature increase already exists and must be urgently addressed in the planning of municipalities, states and nations. Governments have the ability to influence and foster practices that increase the well-being and security of their citizens without compromising ecosystems and future generations. The initiative of the Metropolitan Region of Campinas to initiate its inventories of GHG and pollutants, bringing together 20 municipalities with the objective of using data and actions in the face of climate change, demonstrates an ambition and vision of integrity necessary to approach the theme. This regional leadership is important so that more and more municipalities join together to also perform their inventories and plans, in line with a global movement for climate action. WayCarbon's inventory of greenhouse gases and pollutants, in partnership with ICLEI, used a worldwide consolidated methodology and increasingly used by companies and governments in various locations and contexts - the GPC. In order to make the calculation process accessible, transparent and capable of being carried out by technicians from municipalities or other parties in the future, priority was given to data available directly from public sources or those provided by public agencies. The result of the Inventory reflected particular characteristics of the site, such as the presence of a petrochemical hub in Paulinia and Viracopos Airport, in Campinas, which influenced the emissions profile of the Metropolitan Region as a whole. In an analysis by municipality, Paulinia was largely responsible for Scope 1 emissions (38.4%) due to the presence of the MRC industrial hub and the largest oil refinery in Brazil, REPLAN. In addition to the prominence of the two municipalities as responsible for a large part of GHG emissions and pollutants, a predominance of the stationary energy and transportation sectors was observed among those considered in the methodology. The stationary energy sector accounted for 42.7% of total emissions, followed by the transportation sector with 41.7% and the waste sector with 9%. It can be observed that the stationary energy and transportation sectors account for almost 85% of the MRC emissions. Fuel production is the largest responsible for the emissions of the stationary energy sector, with a 44.0% representativeness, followed by electricity consumption and natural gas consumption, with 19.1% and 18.1%, respectively. This again demonstrates the impact of the presence of the petrochemical industry in the region. Of the total emissions from the transportation sector, 81.8% refer to on-road transportation and 18.2% to aviation. Therefore, the presence of a population concentration using polluting means of
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Executive Summary – GHG Emission Inventory of Campinas and MRC ______locomotion, as well as of industries in the region, such as the beer industry, in Jaguariúna and paper and pulp, in Valinhos and Indaiatuba, were also relevant in accounting for emissions. Beyond the calculation of the MRC emissions, this study also aimed to engage local agents in the construction of goals and action plans to cope with climate change. In this context, public consultations and workshops with representatives of municipalities were held to define priority sectors and short, medium and long-term measures. This, together with research from other regions' initiatives, served as a basis for the definition of the sector's emission reduction targets for the region and for the construction of long-term scenarios. The targets were estimated based on the projected emission reduction estimates for cities with a socioeconomic profile similar to the MRC. Overall, the targets set out were consistent with the required global efforts and with the potential for action taken. In addition to the targets, the main measures were identified to reduce the emissions of the MRC, detailing the necessary infrastructure for its development and estimating the emission reduction potential of each of the measures. Thus, the MRC has an effective strategy technically well- grounded to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases and pollutants. The implementation of the defined goals and actions depends on the strengthening of a regional governance, based on the formation of a Technical Chamber and a Local Climate Change and Resilience Committee that can articulate means of regulating them, allowing for the incorporation into planning and management instruments in the municipalities and an effective monitoring of the actions performed. The participation of MRC members in discussion forums and exchange of national and international knowledge should also be stimulated. Networks of subnational governments are becoming stronger and there are more and more spaces for sharing success stories and partnerships that allow the financing and implementation of projects. This makes it possible to expand the actions and inspire other governments to encourage similar initiatives in their territories, allowing the challenge of coping with climate change something to be overcome through knowledge and collaboration.
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Executive Summary – GHG Emission Inventory of Campinas and MRC ______7 REFERENCES
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