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NFL Sample: QB

NFL Sample: QB

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AJ McCarron Height: 6-3 Weight: 220 College: Alabama Draft: 2014/5 (164) Born: 13-Sep-1990 Age: 29 Risk: Red Year Team G/GS Snaps Att Comp C% Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk YAR Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR 2016 CIN 1/0 2 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0/0 0 ------0 0 0 ------2017 CIN 3/0 26 14 7 50.0% 66 0 0/0 0 5.5% 3.8 -- -11.1% -- 0 -- -11 0 0 0 -- -- 21.3 2018 OAK 2/0 12 3 1 33.3% 8 0 0/0 1 24.6% 0.3 -- -157.0% -- -30 -- -26 3 -2 0 -118.4% -12 0.4 2019 HOU 512 315 61.6% 3636 22 19 7 6.0 -18.0% 48 139 1 -14.9% 2017: 57% Short 29% Mid 7% Deep 7% Bomb aDOT: 7.6 (--) YAC: 8.1 (--) ALEX: -6.8 2018: 0% Short 100% Mid 0% Deep 0% Bomb aDOT: 7.0 (--) YAC: 1.0 (--) ALEX: 0.0

Adding AJ McCarron to your roster is like picking the nicest GoFundMe color scheme you can find. Like health insurance, there is no compromise in the backup world. You either have a good one, or you don’t. McCarron has no deep and little pocket presence, and last year both the Bills and Raiders decided that the two-year, $10-million contract Buffalo gave him in the 2018 offseason was stupid. Pairing with this Texans offensive line is foolish; pairing McCar- ron (who had 12 sacks in 131 dropbacks behind the Whitworth-Zeitler Bengals line) behind the 2019 Texans line is just mean.

Josh McCown Height: 6-4 Weight: 215 College: Sam Houston State Draft: 2002/3 (81) Born: 4-Jul-1979 Age: 40 Risk: N/A Year Team G/GS Snaps Att Comp C% Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk YAR Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR 2016 CLE 5/3 262 165 90 54.5% 1100 6 6/10 7 10.5% 5.3 -- -34.4% -- -269 -- -276 7 21 0 -37.8% -6 35.1 2017 NYJ 13/13 819 397 267 67.3% 2926 18 9/14 11 9.4% 6.2 19 -8.9% 25 62 25 133 37 124 5 24.3% 50 51.9 2018 NYJ 4/3 191 110 60 54.5% 539 1 4/4 0 7.1% 4.3 -- -36.5% -- -184 -- -223 5 32 0 14.2% 6 35.2 2017: 57% Short 29% Mid 8% Deep 6% Bomb aDOT: 7.9 (29) YAC: 4.7 (24) ALEX: 0.0 2018: 54% Short 28% Mid 8% Deep 10% Bomb aDOT: 8.0 (--) YAC: 5.1 (--) ALEX: 5.3

McCown turned 40 on the Fourth of July and is coming off a year in which he looked like a broken- journeyman barely ca- pable of even routine passes. He turned a two-month hot streak in 2013 into lucrative gigs with three teams, amassing a 7-31 record as a starter for bad teams with cap space to burn during that stretch. With a weaker quarterback, those teams might have gone 6-32 or something! McCown’s a swell dude and everybody’s looking forward to having him at the ESPN studios now that he’s retired.

Colt McCoy Height: 6-1 Weight: 216 College: Draft: 2010/3 (85) Born: 5-Sep-1986 Age: 33 Risk: Red Year Team G/GS Snaps Att Comp C% Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk YAR Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR 2017 WAS 1/0 4 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0/0 0 ------0 0 0 ------2018 WAS 3/2 100 54 34 63.0% 372 3 3/4 1 10.9% 5.8 -- -40.8% -- -119 -- -114 10 63 0 48.3% 30 41.5 2019 WAS 485 305 63.0% 3297 21 16 9 5.8 -17.5% 59 226 1 -9.2% 2018: 37% Short 39% Mid 16% Deep 8% Bomb aDOT: 9.7 (--) YAC: 4.4 (--) ALEX: 3.7

McCoy played poorly in a relief appearance and a start before breaking his leg early in the Week 13 loss to the Eagles. McCoy opted for minor surgery as the Skins tried to him back before the end of the season; he suffered a setback as a result, which required additional surgery in the early offseason. Jay Gruden irrationally loves McCoy, and the Skins were touting a McCoy- quarterback competition before the injury news and ’ arrival. But if McCoy is under center, several things have gone very wrong in Washington, and something else will go wrong the moment McCoy absorbs another hit.

Gardner Minshew Height: 6-1 Weight: 220 College: Washington State Draft: 2019/6 (178) Born: 16-May-1996 Age: 23 Risk: Green Year Team G/GS Snaps Att Comp C% Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk YAR Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR 2019 JAX 509 325 63.9% 3191 13 15 9 5.2 -18.2% 42 131 1 -3.5%

Headband. Mullet. Mustache. Minshew will have fans sold on his aesthetics in Jacksonville with ease. How good of a quar- terback is he? Well, the statistics don’t mean much in Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense. Minshew was one of the pre-eminent checkdown artists in in 2018, rarely threatening the deep field. He’s careful with the football—aside from —and could grow up to be in an ‘80s Wrestling package. To get there entirely, he’ll have to do a better job under pressure—Derrik Klassen’s quarterback charting had him as the second-least accurate quarterback in this class under pressure, and the least accurate outside of the pocket. QUARTERBACKS 265

Nick Mullens Height: 6-1 Weight: 210 College: Southern Mississippi Draft: 2017/FA Born: 21-Mar-1995 Age: 24 Risk: Yellow Year Team G/GS Snaps Att Comp C% Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk YAR Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR 2018 SF 8/8 519 274 176 64.2% 2277 13 10/12 2 6.3% 7.5 6 4.2% 18 286 24 232 18 -16 0 -118.6% -43 54.9 2019 SF 546 337 61.7% 4259 24 19 7 6.7 -3.6% 32 51 1 -23.2% 2018: 47% Short 38% Mid 13% Deep 2% Bomb aDOT: 7.4 (31) YAC: 7.0 (1) ALEX: 0.1

Mullens broke many of ’s passing records at Southern Mississippi before going undrafted in 2017. After a year and a half on San Francisco’s , he got a chance to start on Thursday night against Oakland in Week 9. The 49ers didn’t even announce a starter until that day, and had that game been on Sunday, C.J. Beathard’s wrist might have recovered and Mullens might have never played last year. Regardless, Mullens shredded the Raiders, going 16-of-22 for 262 yards with three and no , and started every game for San Francisco from that point forward. You may have read this offseason, perhaps even from an FO alumnus (Hi Cian!), that Mullens deserved to keep his starting job over Jimmy Garoppolo. The best argument you’ll find for that in our numbers is his performance with and without pres- sure. Mullens completely collapsed under pressure—only , , and were worse—but his DVOA with no pressure was excellent, eighth among qualifying quarterbacks and better than that of Matt Ryan, , or Ben Roethlisberger. This is important, because DVOA without pressure is usually the more accurate predictor of a quarterback’s performance in the future. Consider, however, what Mullens’ teammates did for him—his average completion gained 7.0 yards after the catch, most in the league. Fifty-seven percent of Mullens’ total passing yardage came after the catch, fourth-most among qualifying quarterbacks; two of the players above him ( and ) will be backups in 2019. Mullens’ arm strength also leaves a lot to be desired. Only 10 percent of his throws were marked as deep outside passes, and only 2 percent were bombs of 26 yards or more, both the fewest of any qualifier. Going forward, defenses will know they can ignore the deep routes, and they will crowd the and tackle those short completions before receivers have a chance to go for big gains. Mullens impressed with his poise and accuracy and could earn an NFL paycheck for a long time, but there’s reason to be skeptical about his ability to last as a starter.

Kyler Murray Height: 5-10 Weight: 195 College: Oklahoma Draft: 2019/1 (1) Born: 7-Aug-1997 Age: 22 Risk: Yellow Year Team G/GS Snaps Att Comp C% Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk YAR Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR 2019 ARI 521 330 63.3% 3779 24 16 10 6.3 -7.5% 89 534 4 21.1%

Numerically, there is little reason to question whether Murray will be a star in the NFL. His numbers last season are hard to comprehend: 69.0 percent completion rate, 11.6 yards per attempt, 42 touchdowns, and seven interceptions to go with 1,001 yards and 12 more touchdowns on the ground. His QBASE projection (see page 441) is modest, mostly because he only started for one year in college, but it’s not as if Murray was stuck on the bench behind training camp fodder—he was backing up , who went on to win the and set the NFL rookie record for passes. Mayfield and Murray were one of the best pairs of passers any college team ever had, and that unique situation may be fooling QBASE to a degree. The only other worrying statistic is 5 feet, 10 inches, Murray’s height at the combine. Only once in the last 70 years has a quar- terback that short thrown for 20 touchdowns in a season: in 1998. That could present some schematic challenges for , but considering Murray is just 1 inch shorter than and 2 inches shorter than , it shouldn’t be a dealbreaker. What the numbers can’t account for, however, is Murray’s unusual path to the NFL. Shortly before the draft, Robert Klemko wrote a piece for chronicling the unusual history Murray and his father Kevin have had with football, base- ball, and the business of pro sports. In the 1980s, the elder Murray made commitments to teams in pro baseball and college football, then walked away from both to enter the NFL draft (sound familiar?). The NFL never gave him much of a chance— and if we’re being honest about NFL decision-makers of the time, his skin color was probably a big reason why. He eventually started his own quarterback academy, where his son became his star pupil. The NFL has come a long way since then. Nobody’s questioning whether or not the younger Murray has the talent to play football, only if he can be trusted to develop himself into the best player he can be. Some of this is due to the Ouroboros-like nature of 24-7 sports media, which can lead to all sorts of nonsense—Murray went 54-2 as a starter in high school and college, and some have questioned how he’ll handle an inevitable losing streak in the NFL, in essence criticizing for Murray for winning too much—but there is cause for reasonable skepticism. “For me it was always football,” he told Klemko. “But at the same time it wasn’t.” The Oakland A’s have retained his baseball rights in case this whole NFL thing goes south. 266 QUARTERBACKS

Cam Newton Height: 6-5 Weight: 248 College: Auburn Draft: 2011/1 (1) Born: 11-May-1989 Age: 30 Risk: Yellow Year Team G/GS Snaps Att Comp C% Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk YAR Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR 2016 CAR 15/14 1023 510 270 52.9% 3509 19 14/22 3 6.8% 6.0 25 -13.0% 28 -64 28 -64 90 359 5 -12.5% -2 53.1 2017 CAR 16/16 1063 492 291 59.1% 3302 22 16/16 9 7.2% 6.0 21 -6.9% 21 141 21 197 139 754 6 6.5% 120 47.7 2018 CAR 14/14 885 471 320 67.9% 3395 24 13/17 6 6.6% 6.4 18 -1.4% 23 321 23 407 101 488 4 2.7% 71 55.9 2019 CAR 530 350 66.1% 3747 25 12 10 6.3 1.4% 108 525 5 8.6% 2017: 53% Short 29% Mid 13% Deep 6% Bomb aDOT: 8.9 (14) YAC: 5.5 (13) ALEX: 2.5 2018: 49% Short 35% Mid 13% Deep 4% Bomb aDOT: 7.4 (30) YAC: 5.4 (15) ALEX: 1.1

As discussed at length in the Panthers essay, Newton’s 2018 season essentially breaks down into two distinct sections (see table). In Weeks 1 to 9, Newton’s DVOA marked him as a top-ten passer on a par with . In Weeks 10 to 15, he per- formed like a bottom-five passer on a par with Blake Bortles. This line of demarcation was particularly exaggerated by his deep passing numbers, but Newton also declined in both short passing and rushing DVOA. He also had fewer rushing attempts and took significantly more sacks—his adjusted sack rate did not increase as much as the raw rate, but the raw rate shows the sheer number of hits he accumulated as his health declined. Newton became less decisive, less accurate, less dynamic, and much, much less effective from Week 10’s Thursday night game until the team wisely shut him down for the year in mid-December. ’s Second-Half Decline Weeks Pass DVOA Deep Pass Short Pass Run DVOA Runs/Game Sack Rate ASR Weeks 1-9 13.2% 39.5% 27.6% 5.3% 9.1 4.4% 5.9% Weeks 10-15 -18.7% -79.5% 14.1% -3.4% 4.7 7.6% 7.4%

The way Newton’s season unfolded leaves us with some major questions for 2019. Newton’s DVOA prior to the aggravation of his shoulder injury was not just his highest since his rookie year. It was the first time he even hadpositive DVOA for the first half of a season since 2013. Even absent the debilitating shoulder injury, we would have expected Newton to regress somewhat over the back half of the season. Norv Turner did a remarkable job tailoring his offense to one of the more atypical quarterback talents in the professional game, but the injury deprived us of a clear picture of the evolution of that offense over the full cam- paign. A healthy Newton would probably have recorded only his second positive passing DVOA since 2013; a hobbled Newton recorded his fourth negative season in five years. For 2019, that means we project Newton somewhere around the middle of the two extremes, but with perhaps the most potential upside of any quarterback ever to have such a mediocre DVOA track record. And of course, all that rushing gives him plenty of fantasy value.

Brock Osweiler Height: 6-7 Weight: 242 College: Arizona State Draft: 2012/2 (57) Born: 22-Nov-1990 Age: 29 Risk: N/A Year Team G/GS Snaps Att Comp C% Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk YAR Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR 2016 HOU 15/14 977 510 301 59.0% 2957 15 16/21 5 5.4% 5.2 33 -26.8% 33 -558 33 -502 30 131 2 35.5% 54 55.3 2017 DEN 6/4 350 172 96 55.8% 1088 5 5/7 2 5.5% 5.7 -- -16.2% -- -56 -- -90 14 64 1 -8.5% 2 46.4 2018 MIA 7/5 340 178 113 63.5% 1247 6 4/5 1 8.3% 5.8 -- -17.7% -- -85 -- -50 8 21 0 -24.0% -3 37.5 2017: 56% Short 29% Mid 9% Deep 6% Bomb aDOT: 7.8 (--) YAC: 5.3 (--) ALEX: -1.9 2018: 57% Short 25% Mid 9% Deep 9% Bomb aDOT: 7.9 (--) YAC: 5.9 (--) ALEX: 1.4

Osweiler threw three touchdowns against the Bears (thanks to several short throw/long run plays) and two touchdowns against the Lions (one of them in garbage time) before turning back into Brock Osweiler, Professional Stumblebum in his final three starts for the Dolphins. Even the “tall guy with big arm” illusion has worn off now that Bill O’Brien, Hue Jackson, and Adam Gase have all kicked Osweiler’s tires and moved on, so he’s currently a free agent in search of a quarterback guru ego- maniac who thinks he can fix him. Maybe he should just stand in front of Raiders headquarters with a sign.

Nathan Peterman Height: 6-2 Weight: 226 College: Pittsburgh Draft: 2017/5 (171) Born: 4-May-1994 Age: 25 Risk: Green Year Team G/GS Snaps Att Comp C% Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk YAR Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR 2017 BUF 4/2 97 49 24 49.0% 252 2 5/5 2 1.7% 4.9 -- -73.8% -- -194 -- -195 7 23 0 -84.2% -18 10.8 2018 BUF 4/2 148 81 44 54.3% 296 1 7/8 0 8.3% 2.9 -- -85.1% -- -380 -- -500 10 50 1 19.3% 18 9.3 2019 OAK 492 281 57.2% 2980 19 29 7 5.3 -39.5% 61 193 2 -4.8% 2017: 42% Short 42% Mid 13% Deep 4% Bomb aDOT: 9.2 (--) YAC: 2.9 (--) ALEX: 1.4 2018: 58% Short 26% Mid 12% Deep 4% Bomb aDOT: 6.6 (--) YAC: 4.2 (--) ALEX: -1.2 QUARTERBACKS 267

Before the 2017 draft, called Peterman the most pro-ready quarterback in the class. It should be noted that Gruden never specified what Peterman should go pro in; perhaps he’s an excellent shuffleboard player or a Fortnite superstar in the making. As an NFL quarterback, Peterman has been one of the worst to ever play the game, putting up 1970s numbers in a 2010s environ- ment. Peterman has thrown an on 9.2 percent of his passes, the worst rate since Tom Flick in the mid ‘80s. Derek Carr could throw an interception on each of his next 225 passes and still have a better interception rate than Peterman.

Dak Prescott Height: 6-2 Weight: 226 College: Mississippi State Draft: 2016/4 (135) Born: 29-Jul-1993 Age: 26 Risk: Yellow Year Team G/GS Snaps Att Comp C% Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk YAR Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR 2016 DAL 16/16 1013 459 311 67.8% 3667 23 4/7 9 5.3% 7.3 4 31.6% 3 1302 4 1220 57 282 6 43.6% 121 81.5 2017 DAL 16/16 1053 490 308 62.9% 3324 22 13/17 4 6.4% 6.3 18 -0.2% 17 375 17 322 57 357 6 46.9% 167 66.7 2018 DAL 16/16 1071 526 356 67.7% 3885 22 8/12 12 9.7% 6.1 26 -8.1% 26 112 25 253 75 305 6 2.0% 45 57.8 2019 DAL 524 352 67.2% 3897 23 12 7 6.5 -0.2% 81 399 4 20.6% 2017: 50% Short 35% Mid 9% Deep 6% Bomb aDOT: 8.7 (18) YAC: 4.4 (33) ALEX: 0.5 2018: 50% Short 35% Mid 8% Deep 7% Bomb aDOT: 7.6 (26) YAC: 5.3 (18) ALEX: -1.0

Prescott went through a 16-game stretch between Week 8 of the 2017 season and Week 6 of last year in which he threw for less than 200 yards 11 times, completing 62.6 percent of his passes, averaging 190.1 yards per game, throwing 15 touchdowns and 13 interceptions and suffering 44 sacks. That “lost season” coincides roughly with the period from Tyron Smith’s injury and Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension in 2017 through the arrival of last year. Most quarterbacks will struggle without their top weapons or pass protectors, of course, but Prescott hovered around replacement level for 16 full games when the offense surrounding him was functioning at less than peak capacity. That should terrify the Cowboys as they prepare to embark upon Prescott’s expensive years: the evidence suggests that Prescott must be elevated by his supporting cast to play at a high level, not vice versa. From a fantasy standpoint, Prescott’s rushing ability and job security make him a useful QB2 type. Just make sure to plant him on the bench the moment any little thing goes wrong elsewhere in the Cowboys offense.

Philip Rivers Height: 6-5 Weight: 228 College: North Carolina State Draft: 2004/1 (4) Born: 8-Dec-1981 Age: 38 Risk: Red Year Team G/GS Snaps Att Comp C% Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk YAR Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR 2016 SD 16/16 1061 578 349 60.4% 4386 33 21/19 9 6.6% 6.8 11 1.4% 18 498 17 435 14 35 0 -9.3% 1 64.5 2017 LAC 16/16 1028 575 360 62.6% 4515 28 10/16 8 4.3% 7.5 2 26.1% 4 1412 2 1505 18 -2 0 -97.2% -10 57.4 2018 LAC 16/16 964 508 347 68.3% 4308 32 12/16 2 6.1% 7.6 4 27.2% 3 1316 3 1216 18 7 0 -96.5% -55 70.2 2019 LAC 524 351 67.0% 4356 33 9 4 7.6 27.9% 23 15 0 -21.0% 2017: 52% Short 29% Mid 11% Deep 8% Bomb aDOT: 8.9 (13) YAC: 5.9 (5) ALEX: 0.9 2018: 53% Short 28% Mid 11% Deep 7% Bomb aDOT: 8.2 (20) YAC: 6.1 (6) ALEX: 1.7

From 2014 to 2016, Rivers appeared to be entering the gradual twilight of his career. He’d average a 7.0% or 8.0% DVOA, he’d rank in the high teens in DVOA and DYAR, his interception total would rise. He looked like he was stepping down from being one of the best in the league to being just an above-average player—still useful, but aging gracefully into his mid-30s. There must be something in the water in Los Angeles, because Rivers has looked as good as he has at any point over the last two seasons. Rivers was especially good on first downs, where his 39.4% DVOA was second behind only Drew Brees. The question with any quarterback who will be turning 38 during the season is just how much longer can he go. Rivers did see his DVOA drop from 37.2% to 16.1% over the last half of the season. Does that mean he will decline this year? We took the research on first half-second half splits from the Cleveland chapter (page 56) and looked specifically at older quarterbacks who declined in the second half. And just as with improvement by younger quarterbacks, we found no indication that second-half decline by older quarterbacks carries over to the next season. However, we did find a correlation between age and a quarterback’s decline in the second half of the season: a correlation coefficient of -0.20 for quarterbacks over the age of 32. So there may be something to the idea that older quarterbacks decline in the second half more often than younger quarterbacks do. In a perfect world, the Chargers would clinch a playoff berth early and give Rivers some rest down the wire so he’d be fresh for the postseason. But that won’t happen in a tough AFC West.

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