NFL Sample: QB

264 QUARTERBACKS AJ McCarron Height: 6-3 Weight: 220 College: Alabama Draft: 2014/5 (164) Born: 13-Sep-1990 Age: 29 Risk: Red Year Team G/GS Snaps Att Comp C% Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk YAR Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR 2016 CIN 1/0 2 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0/0 0 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 0 0 0 -- -- -- 2017 CIN 3/0 26 14 7 50.0% 66 0 0/0 0 5.5% 3.8 -- -11.1% -- 0 -- -11 0 0 0 -- -- 21.3 2018 OAK 2/0 12 3 1 33.3% 8 0 0/0 1 24.6% 0.3 -- -157.0% -- -30 -- -26 3 -2 0 -118.4% -12 0.4 2019 HOU 512 315 61.6% 3636 22 19 7 6.0 -18.0% 48 139 1 -14.9% 2017: 57% Short 29% Mid 7% Deep 7% Bomb aDOT: 7.6 (--) YAC: 8.1 (--) ALEX: -6.8 2018: 0% Short 100% Mid 0% Deep 0% Bomb aDOT: 7.0 (--) YAC: 1.0 (--) ALEX: 0.0 Adding AJ McCarron to your roster is like picking the nicest GoFundMe color scheme you can find. Like health insurance, there is no compromise in the backup quarterback world. You either have a good one, or you don’t. McCarron has no deep ball and little pocket presence, and last year both the Bills and Raiders decided that the two-year, $10-million contract Buffalo gave him in the 2018 offseason was stupid. Pairing Deshaun Watson with this Texans offensive line is foolish; pairing McCar- ron (who had 12 sacks in 131 dropbacks behind the Whitworth-Zeitler Bengals line) behind the 2019 Texans line is just mean. Josh McCown Height: 6-4 Weight: 215 College: Sam Houston State Draft: 2002/3 (81) Born: 4-Jul-1979 Age: 40 Risk: N/A Year Team G/GS Snaps Att Comp C% Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk YAR Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR 2016 CLE 5/3 262 165 90 54.5% 1100 6 6/10 7 10.5% 5.3 -- -34.4% -- -269 -- -276 7 21 0 -37.8% -6 35.1 2017 NYJ 13/13 819 397 267 67.3% 2926 18 9/14 11 9.4% 6.2 19 -8.9% 25 62 25 133 37 124 5 24.3% 50 51.9 2018 NYJ 4/3 191 110 60 54.5% 539 1 4/4 0 7.1% 4.3 -- -36.5% -- -184 -- -223 5 32 0 14.2% 6 35.2 2017: 57% Short 29% Mid 8% Deep 6% Bomb aDOT: 7.9 (29) YAC: 4.7 (24) ALEX: 0.0 2018: 54% Short 28% Mid 8% Deep 10% Bomb aDOT: 8.0 (--) YAC: 5.1 (--) ALEX: 5.3 McCown turned 40 on the Fourth of July and is coming off a year in which he looked like a broken-down journeyman barely ca- pable of even routine passes. He turned a two-month hot streak in 2013 into lucrative gigs with three teams, amassing a 7-31 record as a starter for bad teams with cap space to burn during that stretch. With a weaker quarterback, those teams might have gone 6-32 or something! McCown’s a swell dude and everybody’s looking forward to having him at the ESPN studios now that he’s retired. Colt McCoy Height: 6-1 Weight: 216 College: Texas Draft: 2010/3 (85) Born: 5-Sep-1986 Age: 33 Risk: Red Year Team G/GS Snaps Att Comp C% Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk YAR Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR 2017 WAS 1/0 4 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0/0 0 -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 0 0 0 -- -- -- 2018 WAS 3/2 100 54 34 63.0% 372 3 3/4 1 10.9% 5.8 -- -40.8% -- -119 -- -114 10 63 0 48.3% 30 41.5 2019 WAS 485 305 63.0% 3297 21 16 9 5.8 -17.5% 59 226 1 -9.2% 2018: 37% Short 39% Mid 16% Deep 8% Bomb aDOT: 9.7 (--) YAC: 4.4 (--) ALEX: 3.7 McCoy played poorly in a relief appearance and a start before breaking his leg early in the Week 13 loss to the Eagles. McCoy opted for minor surgery as the Skins tried to rush him back before the end of the season; he suffered a setback as a result, which required additional surgery in the early offseason. Jay Gruden irrationally loves McCoy, and the Skins were touting a McCoy- Case Keenum quarterback competition before the injury news and Dwayne Haskins’ arrival. But if McCoy is under center, several things have gone very wrong in Washington, and something else will go wrong the moment McCoy absorbs another hit. Gardner Minshew Height: 6-1 Weight: 220 College: Washington State Draft: 2019/6 (178) Born: 16-May-1996 Age: 23 Risk: Green Year Team G/GS Snaps Att Comp C% Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk YAR Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR 2019 JAX 509 325 63.9% 3191 13 15 9 5.2 -18.2% 42 131 1 -3.5% Headband. Mullet. Mustache. Minshew will have fans sold on his aesthetics in Jacksonville with ease. How good of a quarterback is he? Well, the statistics don’t mean much in Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense. Minshew was one of the pre-eminent checkdown artists in college football in 2018, rarely threatening the deep field. He’s careful with the football—aside from fumbles—and could grow up to be Cody Kessler in an ‘80s Wrestling package. To get there entirely, he’ll have to do a better job under pressure—Derrik Klassen’s quarterback charting had him as the second-least accurate quarterback in this class under pressure, and the least accurate outside of the pocket. QUARTERBACKS 265 Nick Mullens Height: 6-1 Weight: 210 College: Southern Mississippi Draft: 2017/FA Born: 21-Mar-1995 Age: 24 Risk: Yellow Year Team G/GS Snaps Att Comp C% Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk YAR Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR 2018 SF 8/8 519 274 176 64.2% 2277 13 10/12 2 6.3% 7.5 6 4.2% 18 286 24 232 18 -16 0 -118.6% -43 54.9 2019 SF 546 337 61.7% 4259 24 19 7 6.7 -3.6% 32 51 1 -23.2% 2018: 47% Short 38% Mid 13% Deep 2% Bomb aDOT: 7.4 (31) YAC: 7.0 (1) ALEX: 0.1 Mullens broke many of Brett Favre’s passing records at Southern Mississippi before going undrafted in 2017. After a year and a half on San Francisco’s practice squad, he got a chance to start on Thursday night against Oakland in Week 9. The 49ers didn’t even announce a starter until that day, and had that game been on Sunday, C.J. Beathard’s wrist might have recovered and Mullens might have never played last year. Regardless, Mullens shredded the Raiders, going 16-of-22 for 262 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions, and started every game for San Francisco from that point forward. You may have read this offseason, perhaps even from an FO alumnus (Hi Cian!), that Mullens deserved to keep his starting job over Jimmy Garoppolo. The best argument you’ll find for that in our numbers is his performance with and without pressure. Mullens completely collapsed under pressure—only Alex Smith, Derek Carr, and Josh Rosen were worse—but his DVOA with no pressure was excellent, eighth among qualifying quarterbacks and better than that of Matt Ryan, Tom Brady, or Ben Roethlisberger. This is important, because DVOA without pressure is usually the more accurate predictor of a quarterback’s performance in the future. Consider, however, what Mullens’ teammates did for him—his average completion gained 7.0 yards after the catch, most in the league. Fifty-seven percent of Mullens’ total passing yardage came after the catch, fourth-most among qualifying quarterbacks; two of the players above him (Ryan Tannehill and Blake Bortles) will be backups in 2019. Mullens’ arm strength also leaves a lot to be desired. Only 10 percent of his throws were marked as deep outside passes, and only 2 percent were bombs of 26 yards or more, both the fewest of any qualifier. Going forward, defenses will know they can ignore the deep routes, and they will crowd the line of scrimmage and tackle those short completions before receivers have a chance to go for big gains. Mullens impressed with his poise and accuracy and could earn an NFL paycheck for a long time, but there’s reason to be skeptical about his ability to last as a starter. Kyler Murray Height: 5-10 Weight: 195 College: Oklahoma Draft: 2019/1 (1) Born: 7-Aug-1997 Age: 22 Risk: Yellow Year Team G/GS Snaps Att Comp C% Yds TD INT/Adj FUM ASR NY/P Rk DVOA Rk DYAR Rk YAR Runs Yds TD DVOA DYAR QBR 2019 ARI 521 330 63.3% 3779 24 16 10 6.3 -7.5% 89 534 4 21.1% Numerically, there is little reason to question whether Murray will be a star in the NFL. His numbers last season are hard to comprehend: 69.0 percent completion rate, 11.6 yards per attempt, 42 touchdowns, and seven interceptions to go with 1,001 yards and 12 more touchdowns on the ground.

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