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Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? an International Historical Comparison

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Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? an International Historical Comparison Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters Citation Reinhart, Carmen M, and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2008. Is the 2007 US sub-prime financial crisis so different? An international historical comparison. American Economic Review 98, no. 2: 339-344. Published Version doi:10.1257/aer.98.2.339 Citable link http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:11129156 Terms of Use This article was downloaded from Harvard University’s DASH repository, and is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http:// nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of- use#LAA American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 2008, 98:2, 339–344 http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.98.2.339 Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison By Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff* The first major financial crisis of the twenty- Norway, Spain, and Sweden), the drop in annual first century involves esoteric instruments, output growth from peak to trough is over 5 per- unaware regulators, and skittish investors. It cent, and growth remained well below pre-crisis also follows a well-trodden path laid down by trend even after three years. These more cata- centuries of financial folly. Is the “special” prob- strophic cases, of course, mark the boundary lem of sub-prime mortgages really different? that policymakers particularly want to avoid. Our examination of the longer historical record, which is part of a larger effort on cur- I. Postwar Bank-Centered Financial Crises: rency and debt crises, finds stunning qualitative The Data and quantitative parallels across a number of standard financial crisis indicators. To name a Our comparisons employ a small piece of a few, the run-up in US equity and housing prices much larger and longer historical dataset we that Graciela L. Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) have constructed (see Reinhart and Rogoff find to be the best leading indicators of crisis 2008.) The extended dataset catalogues bank- in countries experiencing large capital inflows ing and financial crises around the entire world closely tracks the average of the previous 18 dating back to 1800 (in some cases earlier). In post–World War II banking crises in industrial order to focus here on data most relevant to the countries. So, too, does the inverted v-shape present US situation, we do not consider the of real growth in the years prior to the crisis. plethora of emerging market crises, nor indus- Despite widespread concern about the effects on trialized country financial crises from the Great national debt of the tax cuts of the early 2000s, Depression or the 1800s. Nevertheless, even in the run-up in US public debt is actually some- the smaller sample considered in this paper, what below the average of other crisis episodes. the “this time is different” syndrome has been In contrast, the pattern of US current account repeated many times. deficits is markedly worse. First come rationalizations. This time, many At this juncture, the book is still open on how analysts argued, the huge run-up in US housing the current dislocations in the United States will prices was not at all a bubble, but rather justified play out. The precedent found in the aftermath by financial innovation (including sub-prime of other episodes suggests that the strains can be mortgages), as well as by the steady inflow of quite severe, depending especially on the initial capital from Asia and petroleum exporters. degree of trauma to the financial system (and to The huge run-up in equity prices was similarly some extent, the policy response). The average argued to be sustainable thanks to a surge in drop in (real per capita) output growth is over US productivity growth and a fall in risk that 2 percent, and it typically takes two years to accompanied the “Great Moderation” in mac- return to trend. For the five most catastrophic roeconomic volatility. As for the extraordinary cases (which include episodes in Finland, Japan, string of outsized US current account deficits, which at their peak accounted for more than * Reinhart: School of Public Policy and Department of two-thirds of all the world’s current account Economics, University of Maryland, 4105 Van Munching surpluses, many analysts argued that these, too, Hall, College Park, MD 20742 (e-mail: creinhar@umd. could be justified by new elements of the global edu); Rogoff: Economics Department, Harvard Univer- economy. Thanks to a combination of a flexible sity, Littauer Center, Cambridge, MA 02138-3001 (e-mail: [email protected]). We would like to thank Adam economy and the innovation of the technology Posen, Vincent Reinhart, and Alan Taylor for their helpful boom, the United States could be expected to comments. enjoy superior productivity growth for decades, 339 340 AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS MAY 2008 while superior American know-how meant Some of the other 13 crises are relatively minor higher returns on physical and financial invest- affairs, such as the 1995 Barings (investment) ment than foreigners could expect in the United bank crisis in the United Kingdom or the 1994 States. Credit Lyonnaise bailout in France. Excluding Next comes reality. Starting in the summer of these smaller crises would certainly not weaken 2007, the United States experienced a striking our results, as the imbalances in the run-sup contraction in wealth, increase in risk spreads, were minor compared to the larger blowouts. and deterioration in credit market functioning. The 2007 United States sub-prime crisis, of II. Comparisons course, has it roots in falling US housing prices, which have in turn led to higher default levels, We now proceed to a variety of simple com- particularly among less creditworthy borrow- parisons between the 2007 US crisis and previ- ers. The impact of these defaults on the finan- ous episodes. Drawing on the standard literature cial sector has been greatly magnified due to on financial crises, we look at asset prices, real the complex bundling of obligations that was economic growth, and public debt. We begin in thought to spread risk efficiently. Unfortunately, Figure 1 by comparing the run-up in housing that innovation also made the resulting instru- prices. Period T represents the year of the onset ments extremely nontransparent and illiquid in of the financial crisis. By that convention, period the face of falling house prices. T 2 4 is four years prior to the crisis, and the As a benchmark for the 2007 US sub-prime graph in each case continues to T 1 3, except of crisis, we draw on data from the 18 bank-cen- course in the case of the US 2007 crisis, which tered financial crises from the postwar period, remains in the hands of the fates.2 The chart as identified by Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) confirms the case study literature, showing the and Gerard Caprio et. al. (2005). These crisis significant run-up in housing prices prior to a episodes include: financial crisis. Notably, the run-up in housing prices in the United States exceeds that of the The “Big Five” Crises: Spain (1977), Big Five. Norway (1987), Finland (1991), Sweden Figure 2 looks at real rates of growth in equity (1991), and Japan (1992), where the start- market price indices. (For the United States, ing year is in parentheses. the index is the S&P 500; Reinhart and Rogoff (2008) provide the complete listing for foreign Other Banking and Financial Crises: Australia (1989), Canada (1983), Denmark markets.) (1987), France (1994), Germany (1977), Once again, the United States looks like the Greece (1991), Iceland (1985), Italy (1990), archetypical crisis country, only more so. The New Zealand (1987), United Kingdom Big Five crisis countries tended to experience (1974, 1991, 1995), and United States equity price falls earlier on than the United (1984). States has, perhaps because the US Federal Reserve pumped in an extraordinary amount The Big Five crises are all protracted, large- of stimulus in the early part of the most recent scale financial crises that are associated with episode. major declines in economic performance for an Figure 3 looks at the current account as a extended period. Japan (1992), of course, is the share of GDP. Again, the United States is on start of the “lost decade,” although all the others a typical trajectory, with capital inflows accel- left deep marks as well. The remaining rich country financial crises represent a broad range of lesser events. The crisis was 6 percent of GDP and Norway’s 1987 crisis was 1984 US crisis, for example, is the savings and 8 percent. Spain’s post-1977 cleanup cost over 16 percent of loan crisis. In terms of fiscal costs (3.2 percent GDP. Estimates for Japan’s bill vary widely, with many in of GDP), it is just a notch below the Big Five. 1 excess of 20 percent of GDP. 2 For the United States, house prices are measured by the Case-Shiller index, described and provided in Robert Shiller (2005). The remaining house price data were made 1 The fiscal costs of cleaning up after banking crises available by the Bank for International Settlements and are can be enormous. The fiscal cleanup from Sweden’s 1991 described in Gregory D. Sutton (2002). VOL. 98 NO. 2 IS THE US Sub-Prime Crisis Different? 341 64 Y OEF * "WFSBHFGPSCBOLJOHDSJTFTJO BEWBODFEFDPOPNJFT "WFSBHFGPSUIF *OEFYU i#JHuDSJTFT UUUU5 U UU Figure 1. Real Housing Prices and Banking Crises 64 Y OEF * "WFSBHFGPSCBOLJOHDSJTFTJO BEWBODFEFDPOPNJFT "WFSBHFGPSUIF *OEFYU #JHDSJTFT UUUU5UUU Figure 2.
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