Deluge and Drought Conservation Concerns Based on Recent Field Work in Texas and Mexico

Deluge and Drought Conservation concerns based on recent field work in Texas and Mexico

Lincoln P. Brower University of Florida & Sweet Briar College

June 2012 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

1960’s, 1970’s, 1980’s, 1990’s, 2000’s, and 2010’s Monarch butterfly research and conservation collaborators About half of this audience: THANK YOU

2011-12 Texas field work Bill Calvert (Texas Monarch Watch), Delmar Cain, Mary Kennedy and Kip Kiphart (Cibola Nature Center), Ernesto Carino and Ysmael Espinosa (Medina Garden Nursery), Chipper and Carolyn Dippel (Whispering Water Ranch), Monika Maeckle and Bob Rivard (Lucky Boy Ranch), Rick Meyers (Garner State Park), Emily Neiman and George Cates (Native American Seed Co., Junction TX), Patty Leslie Pasztor (Naturalist, San Antonio), Mike Quinn (Entomologist, Austin), Jenny Singleton (Singleton River Ranch)

2010-12 Mexico field work M. Isabel Ramirez, Raul Zubieta, Dan Slayback, Medford Taylor, Pablo Span, Estela Romero

2010-12 Lab and mapping work Linda Fink, Victoria Pocius, Dan Slayback

Financial support The National Science Foundation, October Hill Foundation, Wildlife Conservation Society, WWF, Monarch Butterfly Sanctuary Foundation, Scion Natural Science Association, LightHawk, Journey North, Monarch Butterfly Fund

An immense thank you to Linda Fink

Migration Routes Through Texas

Map by Mike Quinn, Texas Monarch Watch http://www.texasento.net/fall_peak.htm Based on Calvert and Wagner 1999, Patterns in the monarch butterfly migration through Texas – 1993 to 1995. 1997 North American Conference on the Monarch Butterfly.

Field sampling sites

Gould, F.W., Hoffman, G.O., Rechenthin, C.A. 1960. Vegetational areas of Texas, Texas A&M University. Texas Hill Country 31 March 2012 Texas Hill Country 2 April 2012 Texas Hill Country 2 April 2012 Texas Hill Country 31 March 2012 Menard County, TX 11 October 2011 Hondo Creek Uvalde County, TX 13 October 2011 Frostweed, Junction, Kimble County TX 11 October 2011 Llano River, Lucky Boy Ranch Menard County, TX 11 October 2011 Medina River, TX 31 March 2012 Medina River, TX 12 October 2011 Medina River, TX 31 March 2012 Sabinal River, TX 2 April 2012 Sabinal River, TX 13 October 2011 Medina River floodplain, TX 12 October 2012 Garner State Park, TX 13 October 2012 Garner State Park, TX 13 October 2012 Frio River oxbow Garner State Park, TX Garner State Park, TX 13 October 2012 Garner State Park, TX 13 October 2012 Liatris mucronata field, Native American Seed Co., Kimble County TX, 11 October 2012 What was the effect of the 2011 drought on the lipid stores of migrating and overwintering monarch butterflies? FRESHLY ECLOSED MONARCHS, Massachusetts 100 September 1976 80 Mean = 30 mg N = 32 60

% of Sample of % 20

MEXICO OVERWINTERING MONARCHS, November 30 1981-2011 25 Mean = 129 mg 20 N = 904 15 10

% of Sample of % 5 0

Lipid Mass (mg)

Data from Brower lab group, collected by L.P. Brower, W.H. Calvert, P. Walford, A. Alonso-Mejia, L. Fink, M.I. Ramirez, R. Zubieta Brower lab lipid data papers

Alonso-Mejia, A., Rendon-Salinas, E., Montesinos-Patino, E., Brower, L.P. 1997. Use of lipid reserves by monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico: Implications for conservation. Ecological Applications 7: 934-947.

Brower, L.P., Fink, L.S., Walford, P. 2006. Fueling the fall migration of the monarch butterfly. Integrative and Comparative Biology 46: 1123–1142

Brower, L.P., Kiphart, R., Pocius, V., Ramirez, M.I., Zubieta, R., Fink, L.S. In prep for Monarch Biology and Conservation Conference book, Minnesota 2012. LIPIDS in TEXAS FALL MIGRANTS All years N = 574

Lipid MEAN (s.e.) Collection Year Date N in mg Austin, Travis Co. 1979 10-Oct 42 112 (6.5) Windemere, Travis Co. 1979 11-Oct 66 100 (4.8)

Uvalde, Uvalde Co. 1982 11-Oct 59 77 (5.6) Uvalde, Uvalde Co. 1982 16-Oct 40 59 (5.5) Leona Park, Uvalde Co. 1982 18-Oct 40 62 (4.6) Quemado, Maverick Co. 1982 26-Oct 40 52 (3.7)

Garner State Park, Uvalde Co. 1994 10-Oct 43 84 (6.1) Devil's River, Nature Conservancy, Val Verde Co. 1994 11-Oct 72 103 (5.2)

Lucky Dog Ranch, Mason, Mason Co. 2011 11-Oct 6 15 (5.0) Whispering Water Ranch, Menard, Menard Co. 2011 11-Oct 41 40 (4.3) Native American Seed Co, Junction, Kimble Co. 2011 11-Oct 36 80 (7.1) Medina River Floodplain, Bandera Co. 2011 12-Oct 48 58 (4.2) Garner State Park Floodplain, Uvalde Co. 2011 13-Oct 41 28 (4.4)

Data from Brower lab group, collected by W.H. Calvert, L.P. Brower, K. Kiphart 30 1982, 1994 Normal years 25

20 Mean = 76 mg N = 293 Lipids in MIGRANTS, 15 OCTOBER, TEXAS 10

samples 5

35 2011 Drought year 30 (excluding Liatris garden) 25 20 Mean = 40 mg N = 135 15 10 5 0

25 2011 Drought year 20 Liatris garden wet site 15 10 Mean = 80 mg N = 36 5 0 What was the effect of the 2011 drought on the lipid stores of migrating and overwintering monarch butterflies?

•Monarchs fed opportunistically •Nectar resources were scarce and scattered • Butterflies in central Texas had lower than normal lipid levels • Where nectar was abundant, monarch lipid levels were normal What was the effect of the 2011 drought on the lipid stores of migrating and overwintering monarch butterflies? LIPIDS in FALL MIGRANTS, NORTHERN MEXICO Normal years

Lipid MEAN (s.e.) Collection Year Date N in mg Bustamante Canyon, Mexico 1976 1976 30-Oct 47 126 (6.5) San Javier, Queretero, Mexico 1977 1977 31-Oct 101 149 (4.2) Bustamante Canyon, Mexico 2006 2006 19-Oct 102 85 (5.3)

All years combined: N = 250 Mean = 119 mg

Data from Brower lab group, collected by W.H. Calvert, L.P. Brower, M.I. Ramirez, R. Zubieta LIPIDS in MEXICO OVERWINTERING BUTTERFLIES, NOVEMBER

Lipid MEAN (s.e.) Collection Year Date N in mg Chincua 7 Nov 1981 1981 7-Nov 32 126 (7.1) Chincua 9 Nov 1982 1982 9-Nov 174 142 (2.8)

Chincua 8 Nov 1993 1993 8-Nov 100 133 (4.1) Rosario 10 Nov 1993 1993 10-Nov 100 127 (3.9) Contepec 15 Nov 1993 1993 15-Nov 100 117 (4.0) Chivati 17 Nov 1993 (females only) 1993 17-Nov 50 109 (2.1) Pelon 18 Nov 1993 1993 18-Nov 99 112 (4.3)

Chincua 2 Nov 2004 2004 2-Nov 50 145 (5.8)

All years except 2011: N = 705 Mean = 128 mg

Data from Brower lab group, collected by L.P. Brower, W.H. Calvert, P. Walford, A. Alonso-Mejia, L. Fink, M.I. Ramirez, R. Zubieta LIPIDS in MEXICO OVERWINTERING BUTTERFLIES, NOVEMBER

Lipid MEAN (s.e.) Collection Year Date N in mg Chincua 7 Nov 1981 1981 7-Nov 32 126 (7.1) Chincua 9 Nov 1982 1982 9-Nov 174 142 (2.8)

Chincua 2 Nov 2004 2004 2-Nov 50 145 (5.8)

Chincua 17 Nov 2011 2011 17-Nov 99 122 (5.3) Pelon 18 Nov 2011 2011 18-Nov 100 146 (4.2)

2011: All years except 2011: N = 199 N = 705 Mean = 134 mg Mean = 128 mg

Data from Brower lab group, collected by L.P. Brower, W.H. Calvert, P. Walford, A. Alonso-Mejia, L. Fink, M.I. Ramirez, R. Zubieta What was the effect of the 2011 drought on the lipid stores of migrating and overwintering monarch butterflies?

• Monarchs in the overwintering sites in November had normal lipid levels • Did starving butterflies fail to reach the overwintering sites? Probably not • Or are there substantial unidentified and crucial nectar sources in Mexico north of the overwintering sites? Highly likely CONSERVATION LESSONS LEARNED IN TEXAS

Nectar resources in Texas are fallible

Floodplains and oxbows are key nectaring habitats

Nectar resources in northeastern Mexico are crucial From a DROUGHT in TEXAS to a DELUGE in MEXICO Winter is the Dry Season at the Overwintering Sites

400

350 Typical Rainfall Pattern: Weekly Totals 2004-2006 PELON 300

250 winter summer winter summer dry season wet season dry season wet season 200

150 Rainfall (mm)

100

Wintering season Deluge: Chincua Station Rainfall Jan-Feb 2010

180

160

140

120

100 storm total 360 mm 14 inches 80

24 hr Rainfall (mm) Rainfall 24 hr 60

0 1-Jan 3-Jan 5-Jan 7-Jan 9-Jan 2-Feb 4-Feb 6-Feb 8-Feb 11-Jan 13-Jan 15-Jan 17-Jan 19-Jan 21-Jan 23-Jan 25-Jan 27-Jan 29-Jan 31-Jan 10-Feb 12-Feb Deluge of Jan-Feb 2010 in perspective

400 350 300 Rainfall 250 Weekly Totals Chincua 2010 200 150 Rainfall (mm) 100 50 0 8 Jan 5 Feb 15 Jan 15 Jan 22 Jan 29 12 Feb 12 400 Typical Rainfall Pattern: Weekly Totals 2004-2006 PELON 350

300

250

200

150

100 Rainfall (mm) 50

0 Angangueo MX 8 March 2010 Angangueo MX 10 March 2010 Arroyo Hondo, Chincua 4 March 2002 Arroyo Hondo, Chincua 8 March 2010 Arroyo Hondo, Chincua

4 March 2002 8 March 2010 Arroyo Hondo, Chincua 8 March 2010 Arroyo Hondo, Chincua 9 March 2010 Arroyo Hondo, Chincua 9 March 2010 Arroyo Hondo, Chincua 9 March 2010 Trees toppled in the saturated soils

Arroyo Zapatero, Chincua 8 March 2010 Behind Chincua Station 8 March 2010 Behind Chincua Station 8 March 2010 The toppled trees are visible from space: The forest behind Chincua Station, before and after the storm What was the immediate effect of this winter storm on the butterflies?

Chincua Station Rainfall and Minimum Temperature Jan-Feb 2010 20 180

160 15 Rainfall 140 Min Temp 10 120

100 5 80

0 60 24-Hour Rainfall (mm) 24-Hour Minimum temperature (°C) Minimum temperature 40 -5 20

-10 0 31‐Dec 5‐Jan 10‐Jan 15‐Jan 20‐Jan 25‐Jan 30‐Jan 4‐Feb 9‐Feb 14‐Feb Decline in Area of Overwintering Sites

Linear regression: F(1,16) = 8.667, p=0.010 Exponential regression: F(1,16) = 10.099, p = 0.006 What was the immediate effect of this winter storm on the butterflies? Two years later...

East face of Cerro Pelon 8 March 2012 Management decisions following the deluge

•Road up Arroyo Hondo was “improved”

Arroyo Hondo, Chincua 6 March 2012 Management decisions following the deluge

• Numerous dams were constructed in Arroyo Hondo

Arroyo Hondo, Chincua 6 March 2012 Management decisions following the deluge

• Numerous dams were constructed in Arroyo Hondo

Arroyo Hondo, Chincua 6 March 2012 Forest behind Chincua Station, after the storm Management decisions following the deluge

• Hundreds of downed trees were removed

Chincua Station 5 March 2012 1981 aerial view of Sierra Chincua

Llano de los Toros

Zapatero Llano de los Toros 5 March 2012

Llanos of the 3 Governors 9 March 2012 Llanos of the 3 Governors 9 March 2012 Llanos of the 3 Governors 9 March 2012

West face of Cerro Pelon

East face of Cerro Pelon 8 March 2012 East face of Cerro Pelon 8 March 2012 East face of Cerro Pelon 8 March 2012 CONSERVATION LESSONS LEARNED IN MEXICO after the flood

Agencies must communicate more effectively with one another

On-the-ground enforcement of forest protection continues to be inadequate Decline in Area of Overwintering Sites

Linear regression: F(1,16) = 8.667, p=0.010 Exponential regression: F(1,16) = 10.099, p = 0.006 CONCLUSION

The future of the monarch is precarious

Artist: Enrique Téllez Location: Hotel Margarita, Angangueo ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

1960’s, 1970’s, 1980’s, 1990’s, 2000’s, and 2010’s Monarch butterfly research and conservation collaborators About half of this audience: THANK YOU

2010-12 Mexico field work M. Isabel Ramirez, Raul Zubieta, Dan Slayback, Medford Taylor, Pablo Span, Estela Romero

2010-12 Lab and mapping work Linda Fink, Victoria Pocius, Dan Slayback

An immense thank you to Linda Fink

Lipid Mass of the Fall Generation

Brower 1985. Contributions in Marine Science Suppl. 27.