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Republic of the Philippines Strengthening Resilience, Fostering Inclusive Growth

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Republic of the Philippines Strengthening Resilience, Fostering Inclusive Growth Republic of the Philippines Strengthening Resilience, Fostering Inclusive Growth Disclaimer: If you are not the intended recipient, any unauthorized disclosure, copying, dissemination or use of any of the information is strictly prohibited. This presentation contains data sourced from various Philippine government, multilateral/bilateral and private sector websites/reports as of 15 March 2019. These sources have been cited where possible. Table of Contents I. Strengthened Credit Profile 3 II. Favorable Macroeconomic Trends 6 III. Demonstrated External Resiliency 12 IV. Sound and Stable Financial System 15 V. Sound and Strengthened Government Finances 17 VI. Accelerated Infrastructure Development 24 VII. Firm Institutional Foundations Through Structural Reforms 27 VIII. Socioeconomic Agenda of the Duterte Administration 31 IX. The President and the Economic Team 33 2 Strengthened Credit Profile Duterte Administration: Reform-Minded Leadership Focused on Delivering Results Transformative policies anchored on domestic-led growth and continuing structural reforms One of the fastest growing economies in the Asia Pacific region • Rapid and more broad-based economic growth o GDP growth of 6.2% in 2018 led by investments, which contributed 4.0 ppt to growth Continued sound o 20 years of uninterrupted economic expansion macroeconomic Moderate inflation pressures in 2018 Resilient external payments position amid global uncertainties management yields Structural current account flows from steady remittances (3.17% yoy in 2018 and 4.4% yoy in Jan 2019), and rising revenues from IT-BPO (2.9% yoy in 2018) and strong results tourism sectors (4.2% yoy in 2018) Sound banking system Business optimism in the Philippines highest in Southeast Asia and 6th among 35 economies covered according to Grant Thornton’s International Business Report H2 2018 Economic Update Increasing net FDIs on account of improved investment environment. Firm commitment to fiscal sustainability Fiscal initiatives • Passed the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (Package 1A) • Passed the “Tax Amnesty Act” (RA No. 11213), an act enhancing revenue administration and collection by granting an amnesty on all unpaid internal revenue taxes strengthen public imposed by the national government for taxable year 2017 and prior years with respect to estate tax, other internal revenue taxes and tax on delinquencies (Package finances and 1B) (signed into law on 14 February 2019) provide growth • Passed the Social Security Act of 2018 (signed into law on 7 February 2019) Long history of prudent fiscal management impetus Streamlined budgeting and disbursement processes • Simplified Implementing Rules and Regulations (IRRs) of the Government Procurement Reform Act Aims to stop underspending on infrastructure through budget allocations Invest heavily in infrastructure through “Build Build Build” program The Public Investment Program (PIP) 2017-2022 contains the list of priority programs and projects to accelerate infrastructure development Massive • Target USD170bn infrastructure spending for 2017-2022 increases public investments on infrastructure to 7.0% of GDP by 2022 infrastructure Huge increases in the 2019 proposed budget of two major infrastructure agencies: Department of Public Works and Highways (25.8% growth) and Department of development Transportation (89.3% growth)1/ Robust growth of disbursements on infrastructure and other capital outlays at 49.7% in January-November 2018 Pursue further structural reforms, e.g., tax reform packages: Package 1C on adjustments in the Motor Users Vehicle Charge; Package 2 on corporate taxation and fiscal incentives; Package 2+ on mining, coal and a revisit of alcohol and tobacco taxes; Package 3 on property taxation; Package 4 on financial and capital income taxation; and strengthen the country’s gross international reserves (GIR) by making the sale of gold from small-scale miners to the BSP exempt from income and excise taxes Passed the Universal Health Care Act (signed into law on 20 February 2019) Passed the Amendments to the BSP (central bank of the Philippines) Charter (signed into law on 14 February 2019) Passed the Rice Tariffication Law (signed into law on 14 February 2019) Sustained reform Passed the Bangsamoro Organic Law momentum Passed the National ID System Launched the Capital Markets Development Roadmap Further liberalization of FX regime Improving the business environment through streamlined processes and opening more areas for foreign investments • Passed the Ease of Doing Business and Efficient Government Service Delivery Act • Issued the 11th Regular Foreign Investment Negative List (RFINL) Passed the National Payment Systems Act ; BSP as overseer of the payments system 4 1/ Growth is based on cash-based equivalent of 2018 monthly disbursement program vs. 2019 cash-based proposed budget; Source: Department of Budget and Management (DBM) Technical notes on the 2019 proposed national budget Sustained Strengthening of Philippines Credit Profile Metric 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Credit Ratings • Moody’s Baa3/positive Baa2/stable Baa2/stable Baa2/stable Baa2/stable Baa2/stable • S&P BBB-/stable BBB/stable BBB/stable BBB/stable BBB/stable BBB/positive • Fitch BBB-/stable BBB-/stable BBB-/positive BBB-/positive BBB/stable BBB/stable Real GDP Growth Rate (%) 7.1 6.1 6.1 6.9 6.7 6.2 GDP Per Capita* (USD) 2,768 2,849 2,883 2,953 2,989 3,104 GNI Per Capita * (USD) 3,364 3,453 3,487 3,555 3,594 3,720 5.2 Inflation Rate (2012 = 100) (%) 2.6 3.6 0.7 1.3 2.9 4.1 (Jan-Feb 2019) National Government Interest Payments 18.8 16.8 14.7 13.9 12.6 12.3 (as % of Revenues) Fiscal Balance (as % of GDP) -1.4 -0.6 -0.9 -2.4 -2.2 -3.2 Tax Revenue (as % of GDP) 13.3 13.6 13.6 13.7 14.2 14.7 General Government Debt (as % of GDP) 39.3 36.4 36.2 34.6 36.6 36.3 (end-Sep) 82.8 Gross International Reserves (USD bn) 83.2 79.5 80.7 80.7 81.6 82.9 (end-Feb 2019) 7.0 ‒ Import Cover (months) 11.6 9.9 9.9 8.8 7.7 7.3 (end-Feb 2019) 28.9 Overseas Filipinos’ Cash Remittances (USD bn) 23.0 24.6 25.6 26.9 28.1 2.5 (end-Jan 2019) Foreign Direct Investments (USD bn) 3.7 5.7 5.6 8.3 10.3 9.8 Current Account (as % of GDP) 4.2 3.8 2.5 -0.4 -0.7 -2.4 External Debt (as % of GDP) 28.9 27.3 26.5 24.5 23.3 23.9 *at current prices Source: BSP’s Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, Department of Finance (DOF), Bureau of Treasury (BTR) 5 Favorable Macroeconomic Trends Philippines is One of the Fastest Growing Economies in Asia GDP growth of select Asian economies Real GDP growth (%) 8.2 2017 2018 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.2 5.1 5.2 5.1 4.7 4.1 3.9 India Philippines China Vietnam Indonesia Malaysia Thailand (Baa2/BBB-/BBB-) (Baa2/BBB/BBB) (A1/A+/A+) (B1/BB-/BB) (Baa3/BBB-/BBB) (A3/A-/A-) (Baa1/BBB+/BBB+) . ROP’s GDP growth in 2018 of 6.2% is among the fastest in the region . The Duterte Administration aims for more robust and sustained growth through the medium-term supported by sustained implementation of structural reforms, among them comprehensive tax reform, accelerated infrastructure development, human capital development, easing foreign investments restrictions, reducing cost of doing business, and strengthening of agro- industrial linkages Rating: Moody’s/S&P/Fitch Source: Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) National Accounts; Bloomberg L.P.; BSP Selected Philippine Economic Indicators (SPEI) 7 Economic Rebalancing Towards a More Broad-Based Growth Consumption, investment and services remain as major drivers of growth GDP breakdown by component Contribution to growth: demand (%) Contribution to growth: supply side (%) 6.2 6.7 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.2 4.0 3.0 2.6 4.5 3.9 4.5 3.8 3.8 0.2 0.7 0.7 1.4 2.8 0.7 0.3 2.8 0.4 2.8 0.3 4.0 4.1 3.8 3.3 1.8 2.5 2.4 2.4 1.2 2.3 -0.3 -0.8 0.7 -1.3 -2.9 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2017 2017 2018 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2017 2017 2018 Consumption Government Investment Net Exports Statistical Discrepancy Agriculture Industry Services Capital formation continues to accelerate … and is an increasingly key driver of growth Gross capital formation (PHP bn, constant prices) GDP breakdown by expenditure (%, constant prices) +13.9% 2,852.3 +9.4% 2018 -10.7 68.5 11.2 31.0 +24.5% 2,505 2,290 +18.4% +27.9% +4.2% 1,838 2017 -8.4 68.9 10.5 28.9 1,553 +2.8% -4.3% 1,490 1,217 1,165 2016 -8.2 69.5 10.5 28.2 2015 -3.8 69.3 10.3 24.2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Household Expenditure Government Spending Construction Durable Equipment Others Capital Formation Net Exports Source: PSA National Accounts 8 Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding Rising Investments Highlight Confidence in Philippine Growth Prospects ROP gaining attractiveness as an FDI destination Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Flows* (USD bn) Average Growth of FDI, 2013- Q1-Q3 2018 (%) 48.6 37.6 10.3 9.8 26.8 8.3 8.8 10.3 5.7 5.6 3.2 3.7 2.0 1.1 -2.2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Malaysia India Vietnam Philippines Thailand Indonesia Sustained inflows from both foreign and local investors particularly in manufacturing to support higher growth Investors continue to place their bets on ROP Manufacturing has been getting a big share of interest Total Approved Investments** (PHP bn) Net FDI Average Percent Share to Net Equity by Industry, 2012-2018 Manufacturing +19.3% YOY Others 38.8% growth in 2018 12.2% Construction 1.9% Mining and 905.2 Quarrying Financial and 480.0 803.0 3.3% Insurance 488.9 408.7 569.0 441.7 466.9 346.6 11.4% Wholesale and Water Supply, 289.5 Retail Trade Sewerage, and 196.1 258.2 274.0 186.9 245.2 219.0 179.0 105.7 5.7% Waste 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Management Arts, Entertainment Real Estate 9.7% and Recreation 8.7% Filipino Foreign 8.1% Note: Values may not sum up due to rounding .
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