SectionVIEWS FROM THE CAPITALS 5 VIEWS FROM THE CAPITALS THE HAGUE sized companies are facing power. Unemployment is rising Recession is serious difficulties, particularly but remains the lowest in those in the transport, the EU-27. And the relatively tempering Dutch construction and tourism modest size of Dutch industry enthusiasm for sectors. Pension funds are being means the national economy forced to raise premiums or is less vulnerable to shocks in Europe reduce payments. The ABP Fund certain key sectors. Just 22,000 for retired civil servants and Dutch people work in the car By Alfred Pijpers of the teachers – one of the largest industry, for instance, well below Clingendael Institute pension funds in the world – Germany’s 833,000, France’s lost more than €44bn in book 258,000 or even Belgium’s It’s hardly surprising that the value on last year's plunging 45,000 auto workers. Netherlands is being swept stock markets. by the chill winds of global Nor is the current crisis affecting recession. The country has a Yet for all the gloom and doom, the stability of the country or comparatively large financial the outlook for the Netherlands government. The ruling centre- sector and exports account is less bleak than elsewhere in left coalition has presented a for more than 70% of gross balanced package of emergency domestic product. The Dutch measures and enjoys support government had to rescue ABN Although popular support from broad sections of Dutch Amro Bank from the rubble of for the EU in general is still society. Cohesion within Fortis, and the large financial strong, the national autopilot the coalition has even been group ING needed huge credit is no longer on course for “ever bolstered by the rising star of facilities. The Dutch used to closer union.” Instead, the Geert Wilders and his populist think of their country as a Netherlands is steering towards Freedom Party. After the cradle of European budget a more flexible pattern of turbulent period when the party discipline, but today they are cooperation inside and outside of assassinated right-winger dismayed by the rising tide Europe Pim Fortuyn briefly entered of national debt as billions a ruling coalition – and later of euros are injected into the when the Dutch voted No to economy. Europe. As the old saying goes, the European constitution – the “When the world goes down, Dutch political establishment Planners in The Hague predict one can still flee to Holland.” quietly agreed never again to that economic output will fall by Very low inflation and the share power with any populist more than 3% this year; imports country’s solid social security party and never again to and exports have already system together guarantee organise a referendum on dropped by an unprecedented that most people will be able Europe or any other serious 14%. Many small and medium- to maintain their purchasing subject. 158 | Europe’s World Summer 2009 VIEWS FROM THE CAPITALS Since the populists hardly ever But events have once again SARAJEVO win more than 25%-30% of the proved that in times of trouble national vote, the traditional Europeans turn first to their It's becoming Dutch parties nearly always have governments rather than urgent for the EU a comfortable majority in the to Brussels. The EU may be broad political centre ground. indispensable for developing to get back on And unlike Belgium, where a regulations in the long run, but track in Bosnia cordon sanitaire is maintained it lacks the necessary resources around Flemish right-winger to act in the short term. The and Herzgovina Flip de Winter, the Freedom EU’s main job is to coordinate Party is neither boycotted nor the efforts of member states, By Dobrila Govedarica isolated. Wilders and his people leaving much of the decision- of the Open Society Fund have open access to the media making – and the political in Bosnia and Herzegovina and participate fully in public legitimacy – to the capitals. The debates. The ruling party elites Dutch Labour Party, in particular, Economic recession is even cherry-pick their ideas thinks the current crisis is a fuelling fears that Bosnia and when they suit the mainstream golden opportunity to revisit the Herzegovina may be heading political agenda. future role of the nation state, for serious trouble. More than both in Europe and in the world 15,000 people lost their jobs For the Dutch, Europe has economy. over the winter and spring never been far from the months as the global downturn action during the economic It’s an approach that fits well hit home, and the country’s crisis. Jean-Claude Trichet, with the changing Dutch mood pensions and social welfare the president of the European about Europe. Although popular funds face collapse. The Central Bank, and the EU support for the EU in general is economy is the latest problem competition commissioner, still strong, the national to be added to Bosnia’s Neelie Kroes, almost personally autopilot is no longer on course long list of woes. Fourteen supervised the demise of Fortis for “ever closer union.” Instead, years after the Dayton peace Bank, while Prime Minister Jan the Netherlands is steering agreement, ethnic tensions Peter Balkenende and Finance towards a more flexible pattern are still there and political Minister Wouter Bos have of cooperation inside and rifts are widening. Support for eagerly participated in the outside Europe, with a Europe is also on the decline. various EU and G20 emergency substantial role for The Hague. According to a recent Gallup summits. European monetary The junior minister for European poll, 16% of Bosnians believe union and the anti-protectionist affairs, Frans Timmermans, their country will never join stance of the Commission recently summarized this new the European Union, double are much appreciated in the attitude when he said: “I believe the figure for the rest of the Netherlands. As Bos famously that Europe cannot be built western Balkans. The people said, “If we had no eurozone, without strong nation states. of Bosnia simply don’t see we would all have ended up as And that we cannot have strong EU membership as a realistic Iceland.” The Dutch support nation states without strong option in the near future. They European coordination of European ties.” are also disappointed that so far (restrictive) fiscal stimulus and Europe has neither galvanised a strong role for the EU in expected reforms nor resolved promoting global regulation. [email protected] ethnic conflicts. Unless genuine Summer 2009 Europe’s World | 159.