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Renewal Report RENEWAL REPORT NIST Cooperative Agreement #70NANB15H176 Reporting Period: June 1, 2015 – May 1, 2019 Submission Date: May 1, 2019 VOLUME II CSAFE RENEWAL REPORT – VOLUME II This document was produced as part of a NIST Center of Excellence in Forensic Science cooperative agreement (officially referred to as the Center for Statistics and Applications in Forensic Evidence (CSAFE)). Cooperative Agreement: 70NANB15H176 Reporting Period: May 2015 – May 2019 Submission Date: May 1, 2019 Project Period: June 2015 – May 2020 NIST Project Manager: Ms. Susan Ballou Program Manager for Forensic Sciences Law Enforcement Standards Office, NIST [email protected] (301) 975-8750 Investigators: Dr. Alicia Carriquiry – Iowa State University [email protected], (515) 294-7278 Dr. William F. Eddy – Carnegie Mellon University Dr. Hal Stern – University of California, Irvine Dr. Karen Kafadar – University of Virginia DUNS and EIN Numbers: 005309844 and 42-6004224 Website: www.forensicstats.org Renewal Report Microsite: www.renewalreport.forensicstats.org CSAFE RENEWAL REPORT - VOLUME II 2 INTRODUCTION CSAFE Renewal Report Volume II contains detailed descriptions of Renewal Report Volume I’s summarized research projects. In this Volume, you will find each individual project report includes research progress, the newest avenues of exploration, accomplishments, collaborations, and accolades. Each report serves to illustrate the team’s significant efforts in translating advancements in research into practical application for real-world, forensic science investigations. The report is organized by research area. Starting pages for the areas are provided here; a more detailed table of contents follows on page 4. STATISTICAL BLOOD PATTERN FOUNDATIONS FOR ANALYSIS MODELING EVIDENCE page 110 page 5 FIREARMS AND TOOLMARKS DIGITAL EVIDENCE page 122 page 37 SHOEPRINTS AND HUMAN FACTORS TREAD MARKS page 164 page 55 TRAINING AND HANDWRITING EDUCATION page 79 page 228 FINGERPRINTS page 88 Upon review of the CSAFE Renewal Report Volume II in conjunction with Volume I and subsequent report microsite, found at www.renewalreport.forensicstats.org, CSAFE hopes readers will be well-versed in the scientific advancements and achievements of the center’s team of statisticians, scientists, and collaborators. CSAFE leadership and researchers look forward to continuing a strong commitment to excellence and impacting the forensic science community for years to come. CSAFE RENEWAL REPORT - VOLUME II 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION .................................................................. 3 HUMAN FACTORS ..........................................................164 PROJECT E.................................................................................................. 165 STATISTICAL FOUNDATIONS FOR MODELING EVIDENCE .....................................................5 PROJECT I ....................................................................................................174 PROJECT K ......................................................................................................6 PROJECT T ..................................................................................................179 PROJECT AA.................................................................................................. 11 PROJECT U .................................................................................................194 PROJECT BB ................................................................................................22 PROJECT W ...............................................................................................205 PROJECT HH ...............................................................................................28 PROJECT MM............................................................................................ 219 FIREARMS AND TOOLMARKS ....................................37 TRAINING AND EDUCATION ....................................228 PROJECT O ...................................................................................................38 PROJECT L ..................................................................................................239 PROJECT CC ................................................................................................44 PROJECT N ................................................................................................245 SHOEPRINTS AND TREAD MARKS...........................55 PROJECT H ................................................................................................229 PROJECT A ...................................................................................................56 PROJECT Y ...................................................................................................251 PROJECT EE ................................................................................................67 APPENDICES ...................................................................255 HANDWRITING ................................................................ 79 PROJECT G ...................................................................................................80 FINGERPRINTS .................................................................88 PROJECT Q ...................................................................................................89 PROJECT V ...................................................................................................96 PROJECT X .................................................................................................104 BLOOD PATTERN ANALYSIS .....................................110 PROJECT P ....................................................................................................111 DIGITAL EVIDENCE ........................................................122 PROJECT D ..................................................................................................123 PROJECT J ...................................................................................................135 PROJECT S ..................................................................................................144 PROJECT JJ .................................................................................................153 PROJECT LL ................................................................................................158 CSAFE RENEWAL REPORT - VOLUME II 4 STATISTICAL FOUNDATIONS FOR MODELING EVIDENCE CSAFE RENEWAL REPORT - VOLUME II 5 Project K - Improving the Statistical Validity of Forensic Science Databases – size, relevance, representativeness and utility Project Reporting Period: July 1, 2018 – April 30, 2019 Project PI: Robin Mejia (CMU faculty) and William Eddy (CMU faculty) Other Investigators: Jay Kadane (CMU faculty), Xiao Hui Tai (CMU graduate student) Accomplishments WHAT ARE THE MAJOR GOALS OF THE PROJECT? a) Identify and address the statistical issues that concern the use of forensic databases in criminal investigations such as size, representativeness and bias. b) Apply/develop statistical methods to quantify and adjust for such uncertainty in the absence of data, databases for inference. c) Quantify the possible weight of evidence from a database search and/or develop associated methods/frameworks to determine a probabilistic match, if possible. d) Propose/advise on design and collection of evidence and use of methods relating to forensic databases. e) Develop statistical methods, which may involve search algorithms suitable for comparison of partial samples and big data, depending on the status and availability of data. f) Develop a coherent probabilistic framework for evaluation and interpretation of any calculation made on searches and its use in court. WHAT WAS ACCOMPLISHED UNDER THESE GOALS? 1) Major activities; The article “What does a match mean? A framework for Understanding Forensic Comparisons,” was submitted to Significance magazine. The article examined how to build proper foundations to discuss uncertainty in forensic conclusions and described the need for reference databases in forensics. The paper was authored by Robin Mejia, Maria Cuellar (Pennsylvania State University), Dana Delger (Innocence Project), and William F. Eddy. Another paper has been drafted, focusing on the needs of the forensic disciplines of ballistics, fingerprints, and DNA, as there are large forensic databases in each of those disciplines, each with unique challenges. A rough draft was developed by Mejia, Tai, Kadane, and Eddy, and sent to Hal Stern and Alicia Carriquiry for review, and received positive feedback and suggestions. Some sections (in particular, the one on DNA databases) require additional CSAFE RENEWAL REPORT - VOLUME II 6 research. The draft identifies key research needs, and provides a detailed example of what kinds of information and summary statistics can be generated from a dataset to improve understanding of issues related to matching even when the data itself is not available. This was done using the NIST Ballistics Toolmarks Research database. Further discussion highlights the importance of understanding datasets, especially those utilized by law enforcement, and how that can help improve understanding of their use, especially ones that are known to not be probability samples from a population of interest. 2) Specific objectives; The papers described focused on: • Describing the issues that arise with key forensic databases, • Best practices for the development of such databases and
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