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Forensic Science Assessments: a Quality and Gap Analysis- Latent REPORT 2 09/15/2017 FORENSICSCIENCE ASSESSMENTS A Quality and Gap Analysis Latent Fingerprint Examination AUTHORS: William Thompson, John Black, Anil Jain and Joseph Kadane CONTRIBUTING AAAS STAFF: Deborah Runkle, Michelle Barretta and Mark S. Frankel The report Latent Fingerprint Examination is part of the project Forensic Science Assessments: A Quality and Gap Analysis. The opinions, findings, recommendations expressed in the report are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the official positions or policies of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. © 2017 AAAS This material may be freely reproduced with attribution. Published by the American Association for the Advancement of Science Scientific Responsibility, Human Rights, and Law Program 1200 New York Ave NW, Washington DC 20005 United States The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) is the world’s largest general scientific society and publisher of the Science family of journals. Science has the largest paid circulation of any peer-reviewed general science journal in the world. AAAS was founded in 1848 and includes nearly 250 affiliated societies and academies of sciences, serving 10 million individuals. The non-profit AAAS is open to all and fulfills its mission to “advance science and serve society” through initiatives in science policy, international programs, science education, public engagement, and more. Cite as: AAAS, Forensic Science Assessments: A Quality and Gap Analysis- Latent Fingerprint Examination, (Report prepared by William Thompson, John Black, Anil Jain, and Joseph Kadane), September 2017. DOI: 10.1126/srhrl.aag2874 i ACKNOWLEDGMENTS AAAS is especially grateful to the Latent Fingerprint Examination Working Group, Dr. William Thompson, Chair, Mr. John Black, Dr. Anil Jain, and Dr. Jay Kadane, for their expertise, tireless work, and dedication in the preparation of this report. AAAS benefitted considerably from the advice and contributions of the Advisory Committee. See Appendix F for a list of its members. A special acknowledgment is due to Jessica Wyndham, Interim Director of the AAAS Scientific Responsibility, Human Rights and Law Program, for her feedback on the report, and for seeing it to its completion. AAAS appreciates the contributions of Drs. Simon Cole, Jason Tangen, and forensic scientists Heidi Eldridge, Carey Hall and others for their review and insightful comments on a previous draft of this report. Carey Hall, from the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension, contributed to the report primer prepared by Mr. Black. AAAS acknowledges the Journal of Forensic Identification, Alan McRoberts, IAI Editor, and forensic scientist Alice Maceo, for granting permission to reproduce an image from Qualitative Assessment of Skin Deformation: A Pilot Study (2009). During part of the period that he worked on this report, William Thompson was a visiting fellow at the Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences at the University of Cambridge as part of its program Probability and Statistics in Forensic Science which was supported by EPSRC Grant Number EP/K032208/1. AAAS Marketing staff member, Elaine Jarrett, in collaboration with designers at Eyedea Advertising & Design Studio, created the cover design for this report. Appreciation is also expressed for the assistance of several other AAAS colleagues-Bethany Spencer, Nicolle Rutledge, Joshua Ettinger, Ellen Platts, and Joel Ericsen -- who provided administrative and logistical support for the Working Group meeting, contributed to and edited content for the project website. ii FORENSIC SCIENCE ASSESSMENTS: A QUALITY AND GAP ANALYSIS LATENT FINGERPRINT EXAMINATION Disclaimer............................................................................................................................. i Acknowledgments................................................................................................................ ii Table of Contents List of Abbreviations............................................................................................................. iv Preface............................................................................................................................ 1 Genesis of this Report..................................................................................................... 1 Conclusions and Recommendations............................................................................... 5 Scientific Foundation for Latent Fingerprint Examination.............................................. 13 Question I: Is there an adequate scientific foundation for understanding the degree of variability of fingerprints: (a) among unrelated individuals; and (b) among relatives?........... 17 Question II: Is there an adequate scientific foundation for understanding the degree of variability among prints made by the same finger: (a) on different surfaces, under different environmental conditions; and (b) over time as a person ages or is subject to injury?........... 24 Question III: Is there an adequate scientific foundation for understanding the accuracy of automated fingerprint identification systems (AFIS)?.............................................................. 29 Question IV: Is there an adequate scientific foundation for understanding the potential for contextual bias in latent print analysis and how might it be addressed?................................ 35 Question V: Is there an adequate scientific foundation for understanding the accuracy of human fingerprint examiners and how their accuracy is affected by: (a) level of training and experience; (b) individual differences in perceptual ability; (c) analytic procedures and standards of practice; (d) quality control and quality assurance procedures; and (e) the quality of prints? If not, what kinds of research are needed to improve understanding of these issues?............................................................................................................................ 43 Question VI: In light of the existing scientific literature, what kind of statements might fingerprint examiners reasonably make in reports and testimony in order to appropriately convey both the strength and uncertainty associated with fingerprint evidence?.................. 60 References...................................................................................................................... 74 Appendices A. Methods.................................................................................................................... 93 B. Latent Fingerprint Examination - A Primer............................................................... 95 C. Bibliography and Questions...................................................................................... 99 D. Working Group Roster.............................................................................................. 151 E. Working Group Bios.................................................................................................. 152 F. Project Advisory Committee and Staff..................................................................... 154 iii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ACE- V Analysis, Comparison, Evaluation and Verification AFIS Automatic Fingerprint Identification System CNM Close Nonmatch CTS Collaborative Testing Service DFSC Defense Forensic Science Center DOJ Department of Justice ELFT-EFS Evaluation of Latent Fingerprint Technologies- Extended Feature Sets ENFSI European Network of Forensic Science Institutes FNIR False Negative Identification Rate FPIR False Positive Identification Rate FpVTE Fingerprint Vendor Technology Evaluation IAI International Association for Identification LQAS Latent Quality Assessment Software NIST National Institute of Standards and Technology NRC National Research Council NSTC SoFS National Science and Technology Council Subcommittee on Forensic Science OSAC Organization of Scientific Area Committees PCAST President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology PiAnoS Picture Annotation System PRC Probability of Random Correspondence RDTE-IWG Research, Development, Testing and Evaluation – Interagency Working Group ROI Region of Interest SIVV Spectral Image Validation and Verification SWGFAST Scientific Working Group on Friction Ridge Analysis, Study and Technology iv PREFACE Forensic science is an essential tool for investigating crime and helping to determine guilt or innocence at trial but questions have been raised about the validity and reliability of many forensic science disciplines. In some cases, reports and testimony based on substandard science have contributed to the convictions of individuals later proven innocent This report addresses latent fingerprint examination, setting forth what is known about fingerprint examination and what remains unknown. Following the section on the Genesis of this Report, is a summary of conclusions and recommendations. Each conclusion is accompanied by a page number(s) referring to the location in the body of the report where support for it can be found. The body of the report then provides a detailed analysis of the scientific foundations for latent print examination, identifying strengths and weaknesses, and making suggestions for further research. The body of the report is followed by appendices that: (1) describe the methods that were used to prepare this report; (2) provide a primer on latent print examination; (3) provide a bibliography and questions prepared by the National Science and Technology
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