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Income Inequality As a Cause of the Great Recession? a Survey of Current Debates*

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Income Inequality As a Cause of the Great Recession? a Survey of Current Debates* For information on the Conditions of Work and Employment Branch, please contact: Phone: (+41 22) 799 67 54 Fax: (+41 22) 799 84 51 [email protected] International Labour Office, Income inequality as a cause of Conditions of Work and Employment Branch the Great Recession? 4, route des Morillons CH-1211 Geneva 22 A survey of current debates Switzerland www.ilo.org/travail Till van Treeck Simon Sturn CONDITIONS OF WORK AND EMPLOYMENT SERIES No. 39 TRAVAIL ISSN 2226-8944 Conditions of Work and Employment Series No. 39 Conditions of Work and Employment Branch Income inequality as a cause of the Great Recession? A survey of current debates* Till van Treeck Simon Sturn * Address for correspondence: Till van Treeck, Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK), Hans-Böckler-Straße 39, 40476 Düsseldorf, Germany. E-mail: [email protected]. We thank Gerald Friedman, Eckhard Hein, Michael Kumhof, Ansgar Rannenberg, Engelbert Stockhammer, Thomas Theobald, Achim Truger for valuable comments and discussions, and Nina Dodig, Benjamin Neuhaus, Katharina Sass, Jan Siebert, Rory Tews, Lukas Tockner for helpful research assistance. We also thank Marcos Chamon for generously sharing his data. All remaining errors are ours. INTERNATIONAL LABOUR OFFICE – GENEVA Copyright © International Labour Organization 2012 Publications of the International Labour Office enjoy copyright under Protocol 2 of the Universal Copyright Convention. Nevertheless, short excerpts from them may be reproduced without authorization, on condition that the source is indicated. For rights of reproduction or translation, application should be made to the Publications Bureau (Rights and Permissions), International Labour Office, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland. The International Labour Office welcomes such applications. Libraries, institutions and other users registered in the United Kingdom with the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4LP [Fax: (+44) (0)20 7631 5500; email: [email protected]], in the United States with the Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923 [Fax: (+1) (978) 750 4470; email: [email protected]] or in other countries with associated Reproduction Rights Organizations, may make photocopies in accordance with the licences issued to them for this purpose. First published 2012 ILO Cataloguing in Publication Data van Treeck, Till; Sturn, Simon Income inequality as a cause of the Great Recession? A survey of current debates / Till van Treeck, Simon Sturn ; International Labour Office, Conditions of Work and Employment Branch. - Geneva: ILO, 2012 Conditions of work and employment series ; No.39, ISSN 2226-8944 ; 2226-8952 (web pdf) International Labour Office; Conditions of Work and Employment Branch income distribution / household income / wage differential / economic recession / China / Germany / USA The designations employed in ILO publications, which are in conformity with United Nations practice, and the presentation of material therein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the International Labour Office concerning the legal status of any country, area or territory or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers. The responsibility for opinions expressed in signed articles, studies and other contributions rests solely with their authors, and publication does not constitute an endorsement by the International Labour Office of the opinions expressed in them. Reference to names of firms and commercial products and processes does not imply their endorsement by the International Labour Office, and any failure to mention a particular firm, commercial product or process is not a sign of disapproval. ILO publications can be obtained through major booksellers or ILO local offices in many countries, or direct from ILO Publications, International Labour Office, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland. Catalogues or lists of new publications are available free of charge from the above address, or by email: [email protected] Visit our website: www.ilo.org/publns Printed by the International Labour Office, Geneva, Switzerland Preface The Conditions of Work and Employment Research Series is aimed at presenting the findings of policy-oriented research in the area of working conditions from multidisciplinary perspectives such as laws, economics, statistics, sociology and industrial relations. Decent work concerns both the quantity and quality of employment, and indeed, the conditions of work and employment have great impacts on workers’ well-being and enterprise performance. In recent years, conditions of work and employment have changed significantly in many countries, both advanced and developing, part due to globalization, technological changes, and regulatory shifts. At the same time there has been a growing recognition that improving the quality of work is also an important policy goal. Yet the challenge of what kinds of concrete policy actions need to be developed to improve the every-day reality for workers remains. With this challenge in mind, the Conditions of Work and Employment Series is intended to offer new ideas and insights on improving working conditions. It is also meant to stimulate debates among governments and social partners concerning how to better design and implement policies with the aim of ensuring decent working conditions for all workers. ILO’s Conditions of Work and Employment Branch (http://www.ilo.org/travail) is devoted to developing knowledge and policies and to providing technical assistance in the area of working conditions such as wages, working time, work organization, maternity protection and arrangements to ensure an adequate work-life balance. Philippe Marcadent Chief Conditions of Work and Employment Branch Labour Protection Department Social Protection Sector Conditions of Work and Employment Series No. 39 iii Contents Page Preface .......................................................................................................................................... iii Social Protection Sector ............................................................................................................... iii List of boxes, charts, figures and tables ......................................................................................... v Abstract ................................................................................................................................................. vii 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1. The Rajan hypothesis and the renewed interest in inequality as a macroeconomic risk 1 1.2. Approach and summary results of this study ....................................................................... 5 2. Was the U.S. financial crisis caused by income inequality? .......................................................... 8 2.1. Trends in income distribution and aggregate demand ......................................................... 9 2.2. The Rajan hypothesis and the relative income hypothesis ................................................ 11 2.2.1. Why was the problem of inequality ignored for so long? ....................................... 11 2.2.2. The renaissance of the relative income hypothesis.................................................. 14 2.2.3. From near saturation to a new perception of need? ................................................. 16 2.2.4. Labour supply, saving and debt: three coping mechanisms .................................... 17 2.2.5. Evidence for the effects of rising inequality on household behaviour .................... 18 2.2.6. Demand or supply, immoral debtors, predatory lenders, or coward politicians? .... 21 2.3. Summary and conclusions ................................................................................................. 24 3. Export-led growth in the emerging superpower: the case of China ............................................. 25 3.1. The debate about China’s role in the global imbalances ................................................... 25 3.2. Trends in income distribution and aggregate demand ....................................................... 26 3.3. Overinvestment and low household income as an outcome of distortions ........................ 28 3.4. What explains the high and rising household saving rates in China? ................................ 30 3.4.1. Life-cycle and demographic effects ........................................................................ 31 3.4.2. Income uncertainty and precautionary saving ......................................................... 31 3.4.3. Status-seeking through wealth accumulation .......................................................... 32 3.5. A key role for government spending ................................................................................. 33 3.6. Summary and conclusions ................................................................................................. 34 4. Growing inequality and domestic stagnation in the heart of Europe: the case of Germany ........ 35 4.1. The debate about Germany’s role in the European imbalances ......................................... 35 4.2. Trends in income distribution and aggregate demand ....................................................... 38 4.3. Can structural factors explain the weak domestic demand? .............................................. 40 4.3.1. Low investment as a cause of weak domestic
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