Some definitions:

Inverse density‐dependence occurs when the per capita rate of growth increases as population sizes become larger.

An Allee effec t refers to inverse ditdensity‐dddependence at low population densities. It can, but does not have to, lead to a negative rate below a critical .

Some mechanisms that lead to Allee effects:

• Demographic stochasticity (particularly w.r.t. sex ratios) • Loss of genetic diversity • => mutational meltdown • => exposure of deleterious recessives through ibinbree ding • Loss of cooperative benefits • => defense (for prey, or pathogens) • => success (for predators) • => inability to attract pollinators • => loss of ‘environmental conditioning’ (plants) • => many others Genetic drift is less effective at eliminating mildly deleterious mutations in small

N=20

N=50

N=200 The extinction vortex (a term coined by Gilpin & Soulé, 1986) suggests that “as populations decline, an insidious mutual reinforcement can occur among biotic and abiotic processes such as environmental stochasticity, demographic stochasticity, inbreeding, and behavioural failures, driving population size downward to extinction” (text from Fagan & Holmes, 2006) .

A major prediction of the extinction vortex is that “declines beget further declines”, thus accelerating a population’ s collapse as species near extinction. Fagan & Holmes ( Letters 2006): evidence for an extinction vortex in local extinctions of vertebrates? (led by Sir Robert May) played a major role in the mathematical discovery of chaos in the early 1970s.

Chaos is found in systems with strong non‐linearities. Discrete‐time population growth models with strong density‐dependence provide such a setting.

One of the signatures of chaos is a sensitive dependence on initial conditions. This sensitive dependence implies that chaotic systems are fundamentally unpredictable over long time scales, even in the absence of stochasticity.

The 1980s witnesses an enthusiastic hunt for chaotic dynamics in ecological systems. Ultimately, the pursuit fizz le d withou t any satis fac tory resolltiution. Chaos: sensitive dependence on initial conditions

Red begins with N0=0.5. Blue begins with N0=0.5001.