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Rsim Final Report − 2006 SERDP Conservation Project 1259 Final Report - December 2006 SERDP Sustainable Infrastructure Project Number 1259 A Regional Simulation to Explore Impacts of Resource Use and Constraints Principal Investigator Virginia H. Dale Environmental Sciences Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Oak Ridge, TN Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited Form Approved REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE OMB No. 0704-0188 The public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing the burden, to the Department of Defense, Executive Services and Communications Directorate (0704-0188). Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to any penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ORGANIZATION. 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR'S ACRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR'S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE ABSTRACT OF PAGES 19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER (Include area code) Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8/98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 Standard Form 298 (continued) 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN Department of Computer Science, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN Department of Physics, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA U.S. Army for Health Promotion and Preventive Medicine, Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD Acknowledgements We thank personnel at the Fort Benning Military Installation for access to information and much logistical support. John Brent made sure that we focused on management implications throughout the effort. Hugh Westbury, SEMP Host Site Coordinator, provided much logistical support. Pete Swiderek helped with improving our understanding of the ecological system. Rusty Bufford assisted with the geographic information needs and provided data sets and explanations of those data. We appreciate the assistance of many people who helped with this study. Robert Addington, Beverly Collins, John Dilustro, Thomas A. Greene, Robert Larimore, Maureen Mulligan, and Peter Swiderek participated in discussions about this project. Richard Flamm provided a focused review of the user interface for the model. William Birkhead spent time in the field with us identifying habitat for gopher tortoise. Lee Mulkey, Don Imm, Danny Lee, and Jonah Fogel reviewed the overall project. Discussions with Jim Westervelt were useful in focusing our effort and understanding how RSim relates to work at the Construction Engineering Research Laboratory (CERL). Biff Hadden helped us organize a user meeting to discuss how RSim might be deployed in the region. Manuscripts were reviewed by Hal Balbach, Dan Druckenbrod, Bruce Tonn, Taryn Arthur, Hal Cardwell, Jim Loar, Art Stewart, Andy Hansen, Dave Theobald, Monica Turner, Judy Pennington, and several anonymous reviewers. Carolyn Moser and Gay Marie Logsdon edited some of the manuscripts resulting from the project. Gail Hamilton provided secretarial support throughout the project The project was funded by a contract from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) to Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). Project managers Robert Holst and John Hall were helpful. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory is managed by the UT-Battelle, LLC, for the U.S. Department of Energy under contract DE-AC05-00OR22725. RSim Final Report − 2006 SERDP Conservation project 1259 Table of Contents 1. Overview of RSim project 2. Key results a. Products b. Data base requirements for RSim c. Coordination with outside experts d. Complementarity between RSim and mLEAM e. Evaluation of Feasibility and Utility of Synthesizing Tools Provided by SI 1259 and SI 1257 f. Backcasting component of RSim 3. Air quality 4. Water quality and nitrogen and phosphorus export a. Land-cover based predictions 5. Noise 6. Species at Fort Benning considered for use in RSim a. Habitat Modeling Within a Regional Context b. Red Cockaded Woodpecker (RCW) and Longleaf Pine Habitat c. Evaluation of Species Susceptible to Noise at Fort Benning 7. Habitat Patches in RSim 8. Scenarios in RSim a. Urban Growth Scenario b. Military Intensity at Fort Benning c. New Road Scenario d. Hurricane Scenario 9. Development of transition rules for non-urban land-cover classes 10. Risk Approach a. Planning Transboundary Ecological Risks Assessments at Military Installations 11. Habitat disturbance at explosive-contaminated ranges 12. User interface for RSim 13. Bioregional Planning 14. Vehicle impacts on the environment at different spatial scales: Observations in west central Georgia. 15. Systems Approach to Environmental Security 16. Ecological impacts and mitigation strategies for rural land management. 17. Ecological support for rural land-use planning and policy. 18. Modeling Effects of Land Use on Quality of Water, Air, Noise, and Habitat for a Five- County Region in Georgia. 1 Final Report - December 2006 SERDP Conservation CSSON-01-03 A Regional Simulation to Explore Impacts of Resource Use and Constraints Project Number 1259 http://www.esd.ornl.gov/programs/SERDP/RSim/index.html PI: Virginia H. Dale, Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN Other participants: Latha Baskaran, Rebecca Efroymson, and Chuck Garten Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN Michael W. Berry, Matthew Aldridge, and Murray Browne Department of Computer Science, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN Eric Lingerfelt Department of Physics, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN Michael Chang and Farhan Ahktar School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA Catherine Stewart U.S. Army for Health Promotion and Preventive Medicine, Aberdeen Proving Ground, MD Overview The goal of this project was to design computer simulation model, the Regional Simulator (RSim), which integrates land-use changes with ecological effects of changes in noise, water and air quality and species of special concern and their habitats. RSim projects land-use changes and its impacts for the five counties in Georgia surrounding and including Fort Benning and is applicable to other regions and a diversity of resource managers. Data layers that are widely available are being used in the model. Four scenarios have been implemented. (A) The urban growth submodel in RSim consists of spontaneous growth of new urban areas and patch growth (growth of preexisting urban patches). (B) The road-influenced urbanization submodel focuses growth on areas near existing and new roads by considering the proximity of major roads to newly urbanized areas. (C) The new digital multipurpose range complex (DMPRC) at Fort Benning is an example of the pressures that are now being placed on military land for more use. (D) Spatially explicit impacts of a hurricane impact from a storm moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico are based on a storm that impacts the South Caroline coastal system. Projections from the various scenarios suggest that urban growth will continue along the northern border of Fort Benning and may have impacts on noise, water, and air quality. Declines in habitat of gopher tortoise as a likely result of land-use changes because urban growth and other land-use changes are highly likely on lands that now provide gopher tortoise habitat. Habitat for red cockaded woodpecker are not likely to be affected by projected land-cover changes under scenarios A, B and C for two reasons: (1) only 3% of the original habitat remains and (2) most of those remaining sites are on federally protected land that is managed for red cockaded woodpecker. Section 1: Page 1 of 2 During this year of the project, we worked to place the RSim effort within the context of the region, ongoing military issues, and current theory. We specifically considered RSim in relation to future plans for the five-county region, transboundary issues at military installations, and the ecological theories relating to environmental security, ecological risk, and land use planning. We also began development of a user friendly interface for RSim so that the transfer of the final product will go smoothly and provide a worthwhile technology. This task involved planning by our computer design team and discussions with personal at Fort Benning and The Nature Conservancy. We continue to publish aspects of the work as it is completed, for submitting the work to peer review is the established method to gain scientific credibility necessary
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