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PHOTOVOLTAIC SOLAR POWER: 25% of the World’S Electricity Low-Carbon in 2050!

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PHOTOVOLTAIC SOLAR POWER: 25% of the World’S Electricity Low-Carbon in 2050! ©JAMES DOUGLAS©JAMES | UNSPLASH PHOTOVOLTAIC SOLAR POWER: 25% of the world’s electricity low-carbon in 2050! État des lieux et analyses 5 ©TATIC Current situation and analysis collection The Foundation realises studies which contribute to draw up a synthesis of the state of the knowledge on a subject, by ap- proaching as far as possible the economical, social and ecological aspects. Previous publications: Agrocarburants Agriculture et gaz à effet de serre The photovoltaic solar energy Biodiversité et économie : Cartographie des enjeux les clefs pour comprendre en partenariat avec le Réseau (2011) en partenariat avec le Réseau Action Climat (2010) en partenariat avec Humanité Action Climat (2008) et Biodiversité (2012) Les solutions de mobilité soutenable Mobilité au quotidien : comment Démocratie participative : en milieu rural et périurbain lutter contre la précarité guide des outils pour agir en partenariat avec le Réseau (2014) 2ème édition (2015) Action Climat (2014) November 2015 Coordination and editing Nicolas Ott – consultant Steering committee Marion Cohen (Fondation Nicolas Hulot) Alain Grandjean (Economist, Conseil scientifique de la Fondation Nicolas Hulot) André-Jean Guérin (Conseil Economique, Social et Environnemental, administrateur de la Fondation Nicolas Hulot) Traduction LA ROSE DES VENTS – Contact : [email protected] We thank all the experts consulted for their contribution and the time they devoted Ch. Ballif, X. Barbaro, M. Brewster, A. Burtin, A. Chaperon, A. Cuomo, O. Daniélo, G. de Broglie, L. Deblois, I. Deprest, S. Dupré La Tour, N. Gauly, S. Lascaud, B. Lemaignan, D. Lincot, P. Malbranche, D. Marchal, A. Mine, O. Paquier, C. Philibert, Pedro A. Prieto, A. Roesch, JP. Roudil, E. Scotto, R. Sharma, P. Sidat, JM. Tarascon, G. Vermot Desroches. THE CONTENT OF THE REPORT COMMITS ONLY THE FONDATION NICOLAS HULOT AND NOT THE EXPERTS QUESTIONED. PHOTOVOLTAIC SOLAR POWER: 25% of the world’s electricity low-carbon in 2050! TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION: SUMMARY AND CONTEXT. 8 1.2 The sun and mankind: a relative match between solar irradiance and human establishment .......................9 1.3 The physical concepts on which photovoltaic power is based ...................................................10 1.4 The various technologies and uses of photovoltaic power ......................................................10 2. OVERVIEW AND PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF PV: THE ECONOMIC AND PHYSICAL DATA ....................12 2.1 From a niche market to a competitive industry in several countries .............................................12 2.1.1 Photovoltaic power, long confined to a niche market .....................................................12 2.1.2 Support programs allow access to a sufficiently large market to push down costs ...........................13 2.1.3 Photovoltaic power is now competitive in many countries .................................................14 2.2 Recent and future cost trends for a photovoltaic module .......................................................16 2.2.1 Improvement in the efficiency of photovoltaic cells ......................................................16 2.2.2 The impact of improvement in industrial processes on the competitiveness of photovoltaic power ........... 20 2.2.3 Inverters. 22 2.2.4 Other costs, “Balance of System” ...................................................................... 23 2.3 Photovoltaic power cost prospects which will make it a very competitive energy ................................ 25 2.3.1 An expected halving of capital costs ................................................................... 25 2.3.2 Trend for the LCOE up to 2050 ........................................................................ 26 2.4 Needs for investment in massive production of electricity .....................................................27 2.5 Supply constraints and the EROI issue ...................................................................... 32 3. CHALLENGES FACING PV: INTERMITTENCY MANAGEMENT ..................................................... 36 3.1 Integration into grids ..................................................................................... 36 3.2 Consumption management ................................................................................ 40 3.3 Storage, a new revolution? ................................................................................. 44 3.3.1 The various storage technologies ...................................................................... 45 3.3.2 Technical and economic prospects for batteries ........................................................ 46 3.3.3 The energy and non-energy impacts of electrochemical storage. 51 4. ARE MANUFACTURERS PREPARED FOR THE POTENTIAL (R)EVOLUTIONS TO COME? ............................. 53 4.1 Photovoltaics is not THE solution, but an important solution to global energy issues ............................ 53 4.2 The sun, gold for the salvation of developing countries? ...................................................... 55 4.2.1 The electricity grid of tomorrow ....................................................................... 55 4.2.2 Photovoltaics: an immediate solution to significantly improve the life of billions of human beings .......... 55 5. CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................57 6. BIBLIOGRAPHY .............................................................................................. 58 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY n the eve of COP21, there is no At the start of the 21st millennium, the tiveness gains, while certain compo- longer time to question the re- levelized cost of a photovoltaic instal- nents of the cost of these facilities will O ality of climatic disorders; solu- lation was about $750 per MWh com- increase (safety requirements for the tions must be implemented. Moreover, pared with less than $70 per MWh for nuclear industry, allowance for a car- even today, more than 1.3 billion hu- other types of production. Subsidies bon cost for gas- and coal-fired power man beings have no access to elec- (especially in Europe) and industrial stations, particulate emission reduction tricity. How can we provide the ener- and technological progress then made standards for coal and growing pres- gy services essential to those who are it possible to expand the market for sure from civil society against the ex- deprived of them, without any carbon photovoltaic power and initiated a con- traction of fossil fuels). emissions? Long considered too ex- tinuous fall in costs, which are now ap- pensive and posing technical prob- proximately the same as those of con- lems due to its intermittency, pho- ventional production facilities. PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER: A DIFFERENT KIND OF tovoltaic solar energy has in recent The current and future technical de- ENERGY! years undergone developments which velopments described in detail in this give reason to doubt this diagnostic. study make it possible to expect a 20% The photovoltaic technology is What’s more, due to future progress to 40% reduction in the initial capital based on physical principles it is estimated that it could provide at cost of a photovoltaic installation by completely different from those least 25% of the world’s electricity in 2030. On the 2050 horizon, based on of other electricity production 1 2050 instead of the 5% envisaged in market trends, the cost will be halved. facilities. The latter are based most long-term planning scenarios. Moreover, many manufacturers ex- on the classic laws of physics, pect the lifetime of photovoltaic power using mechanisms occurring on plants to be lengthened, from 25 years a macroscopic scale: operating an alternator to produce elec- Photovoltaic solar (the service life currently adopted for calculation of the levelized cost) to pos- tricity. The difference between power, an increasingly sibly 30 or even 40 years. the technologies is the force competitive energy These two developments will inevita- used to cause the rotor to turn bly reshape the electricity and energy (wind, water, steam produced by Although the first discoveries regard- landscape profoundly compared with the combustion of coal, gas or ing photovoltaic solar energy date from the current view. The levelized cost of a nuclear fission reactions, etc.). the 21st century, this source of ener- ground-based photovoltaic installation Photovoltaic power, on the other gy has long remained confined to the could be between US$50 and US$35 hand, is based on quantum phys- niche market of the space industry. per MWh in 2050, and the cost of a resi- ics which governs the behavior The electricity produced by photovolta- dential installation between US$70 and of matter on or below the nano- ic power was far more expensive than US$50 per MWh. metric scale. Now, this physics is that coming from other technologies in no way similar to that which Conversely, the costs of conventional (gas, coal, nuclear). we “experiment with” every day. production facilities will on the whole That makes photovoltaic power a increase. These mature technologies 1. Out of a total electricity consumption range of 35 different kind of energy. Far more to 40 PWh in 2050 (extrapolated from the scenarios will see no breakthrough in competi- of WEO 2014). modular than the others (a 1 W or 1 GW installation can be manu- factured), it can still benefit from technological breakthroughs. CAPITAL COST AND LEVELIZED COST The other production facilities,
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