Joint Defra/EA Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management R&D

Joint Defra/EA Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management R&D Programme

Annex A:

Preliminary guidance on the use of benefits transfer for riverine recreation and angling and coastal recreation

R&D Project Record FD2013/PR2

Produced: November 2004 Statement of use This report provides guidance on the use of MCA and ASTs to assist in the appraisal of flood and coastal erosion risk management projects, strategies and policies. It should be noted that it does not constitute official government policy or guidance, which is unlikely to be available until work to develop the methodology and identify appropriate sources of data has been undertaken through pilot studies.

This report may be downloaded from the Defra/EA R&D Programme website (http://www.defra.gov.uk/environ.fcd/research), use the search tool located on the project information and publications page. Copies are held by all EA Regional Information Centres, contact The Environment Agency’s National Customer Contact Centre by emailing [email protected] or by telephoning 08708506506.

Dissemination Status Internal: Released internally External: Released to public domain

Keywords: Multi criteria analysis, MCA, appraisal summary table, AST, decision rule

Research contractor contact details: Lead contractor: Risk & Policy Analysts Ltd (RPA), Farthing Green House, 1 Beccles Road, Loddon, Norfolk, NR14 6LT (Tel: 01508 528465; Fax: 01508 520758; www.rpaltd.co.uk). The project director was Meg Postle, the project manager for RPA was John Ash with research support from Susana Dias and other members of RPA staff.

The research team also included: Colin Green (Flood Hazard Research Centre, Middlesex University); Alan Pearman (University of Leeds); Ron Janssen (The Institute of Environmental Studies, Free University, Amsterdam), Terry Oakes and Hugh Payne (Independent Consultants)

Acknowledgements The assistance of those providing information for the case studies is gratefully acknowledged.

Defra project manager: Matt Crossman, Defra, 3D Ergon House, Horseferry Rd, London, SW1P 2AL. Email: [email protected]

Publishing organisation Defra Flood Management Division Ergon House Horseferry Road London SW1P 2AL Tel: 020 7238 3000 Fax: 020 7238 6187 www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd

¬ Crown copyright (Defra); 2005

Copyright in the typographical arrangement and design rests with the Crown. This publication (excluding the logo) may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium provided that it is reproduced accurately and not used in a misleading context. The material must be acknowledged as Crown copyright with the title and source of the publication specified. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of Defra or the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance on views contained herein.

Published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Printed in the UK, March 2005 on recycled material containing 80% post-consumer waste and 20% totally chlorine free virgin pulp.

PB No. 10734/PR2 ISBN 0-85521-146-6

ii Statement of use This report provides guidance on the use of MCA and ASTs to assist in the appraisal of flood and coastal erosion risk management projects, strategies and policies. It should be noted that it does not constitute official government policy or guidance, which is unlikely to be available until work to develop the methodology and identify appropriate sources of data has been undertaken through pilot studies. In the interim it expected that ASTs will be incorporated in the Project Appraisal Report template and it is suggested that any MCA application involving weighting and scoring or application of the extended decision rule should only be undertaken following consultation with Defra’s Flood Management Division.

Dissemination Status Internal: Released internally External: Released to public domain

Keywords: Multi criteria analysis, MCA, appraisal summary table, AST, decision rule

Acknowledgements The assistance of those proving information for the case studies is gratefully acknowledged.

Defra project manager: Matt Crossman, Defra, 3D Ergon House, Horseferry Rd, London, SW1P 2AL. Email: [email protected]

Publishing organisation Defra Flood Management Division Ergon House

A1: Introduction 1 Horseferry Road London SW1P 2AL Tel: 020 7238 3000 Fax: 020 7238 6187 www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd

2 A1: Introduction A1. Introduction

In this Annex we provide an example of preliminary guidance on the use of benefits transfer (BT) for the following impact categories:

• rivers: - informal recreation - angling

• coastal: - recreation.

The above impacts categories have been selected on the basis of the transferability of the studies to the flood management and coastal defence context. Overall, recreation benefits (both formal and informal), depending on the nature of the problems and the options chosen to address them, will have the following components (based on Penning-Rowsell et al., 2003):

1. The prevention of further deterioration: losses associated with the ‘do- nothing’ option when compared to the existing scenario. Almost all coastal protection projects and some riverine and coastal flood defence ones will have this component. Options that only prevent further deterioration and simply reinstate the site to its current condition will involve this component. Note, however, that benefits can also arise under the ‘do-nothing’ option if, by walking away for instance, the river is restored to a more natural state and, as a result, attracts more visitors.

2. The improvement of the condition of the site from the current state to a better one: gains.For example, the replacement of hard river flood defence structures reaching the end of their life with more soft engineered defences may enhance the recreational value of a river site. Beach nourishment for coastal protection purposes may result in a ‘better’ beach in recreational terms. In coastal defence and river management schemes, for example offshore reefs, new sea walls with promenades or river flood banks or retention lakes, may also change sites in ways that may provide new recreational opportunities and thus may enhance the recreational potential of the sites.

The BT approaches for river and coastal sites are described in turn. The AMP4 Guidance (RPA, 2003) distinguishes between recreational users for river and coastal sites. For fluvial flood defence, studies from the AMP4 Guidance have been deemed applicable.

Angling is considered separately, because of the special nature of this type of users. For coastal sites the applicability of most existing valuations is much more limited. The most relevant are the values from the Multi-Coloured Manual (Penning-Rowsell, et al 2003), although coastal recreation for the more specialised user has also been looked at.

A1: Introduction 1 Other impacts categories are being further investigated (we are currently reviewing the scope for BT for valuation of landscape impacts and in-stream recreation for rivers. We also expect to include a section on the valuation of stress related effects in the future).

2 A1: Introduction A2. Rivers

A2.1 Informal recreation

Overview

The term informal recreation covers a wide range of different activities, such as:

• walking and hiking; • picnicking; • dog-walking; and • nature appreciation related activities such as birdwatching and photography.

Flood management and coastal defence schemes could potentially impact upon informal recreational users. For example, the construction of a concrete floodwall could lead to the loss of footpaths whereas soft engineering defences or a carefully designed hard defence could enhance the recreational value of a site. Options that provide habitat creation in addition to flood defence (such as managed set back or washlands) can also provide additional recreation benefits for users such as birdwatchers.

Qualitative description of impacts

Identifying the impacts on recreation from flood management and coastal defence options involves identifying the impacts of changes to the physical environment under the ‘do-nothing’ and the ‘do-something’ options. The qualitative description of impacts should be recorded in the AST, with this including the following aspects:

• is there access to the river? Is this good, moderate or poor? (identify possible access sites, car parks, footpaths, etc.)? • does informal recreation take place along the river or within the wetland area now (look at provision of facilities, aesthetic quality of the site, etc)? • would the option result in significant changes, e.g. visual intrusion, loss of footpaths, new walks, etc. such that they would be perceived by informal recreation users?

The decision to proceed with the monetary valuation of informal recreation related impacts should thus include consideration of the degree to which users would perceive the impacts arising from the different options to be important. If impacts are not likely to be perceived as important by users, then they should be considered negligible. If the opposite happens, i.e. impacts are expected to be important, the number of users needs to be estimated. The approach set out below is based on the AMP4 methodology for calculating participation rates, and has been adjusted for the flood management and coastal defence context.

A2: Rivers 3 Calculating the population affected

In preparing the monetary valuation, it is important to estimate the number of users likely to be affected by the options. Sources of information on participation rates include: • Site visits or visitor surveys: counts of visitors along the affected stretch or at a given site at different times during the day and year to give the basis for an estimate of annual number of visits; • Consultation-based estimates: number of trips to the affected site per year or as a point estimate based on consultation with recreation officers, District Council car park officers, tourist offices and ramblers club, etc; and • Default data: reliance on standard formulae of estimates.

The most robust approach is to collect site-specific data based on visitor counts. The least robust approach to developing estimates of likely visitor numbers is the use of default values as site specific factors are less likely to be taken into account. Note that this assessment is based on estimating current levels of use. Reliable methods do not exist for predicting changes in informal recreation visitor numbers.

Site visits or visitor surveys

The results of counts carried out during site visits or as part of visitor surveys can be used directly to calculate annual visitor rates to informal recreation sites. The approach to take will depend upon the format that the site count is in. If the site count is given as a spot count, or number of visitors per day, the steps below should be followed in order to derive an estimate of the annual number of visitors. If the count is of weekly visitors, then this should be multiplied by four, to estimate monthly trips and then Steps 2 and 3 should be followed. Where the site count gives monthly visitors, Step 3 will have to be followed. If the count is of car park numbers, this will need to be converted into number of visitors by multiplying by 2.3 (as 2.3 is the number of adults per household, from National Statistics); if the site count gives annual number of visits, there is no need to make any adjustments.

Visitors (from car park numbers) = number of cars parked x 2.3

Where several different counts have been undertaken both the mean and median values can be taken. If these are similar, estimates are likely to be fairly robust. If these two values differ significantly, then both values should be carried forward as a lower and upper bound, as they will provide a range and an indication of the uncertainty surrounding the visitor rates estimates.

Step 1: Converting a daily count into weekly visit numbers

The most appropriate adjustment factors are given in Table A2.1.

4 A2: Rivers Table A2.1 Proportion of visits made on weekdays and weekend days Day of Week Percentage of Trips Made

Weekday (per day) 12%

Weekend (per day) 20%

Source: CRN (1996), in Environment Agency (2003)

The daily estimate should be divided by the appropriate percentage to give a weekly estimate. Multiplying the weekly estimate by four will then provide the number of visits per month.

Weekly estimate of visits = daily estimate ÷ percentage (from Table 5.1) 100

Monthly estimate = weekly estimate x 4

Step 2: Converting a monthly estimate into an annual estimate

Factors for typical monthly variations in informal recreation activities are given in Table A2.2. The Table shows participation rates by month and by importance of a site. In using these, the characteristics of the site as described in the qualitative assessment should be considered.

Once it has been selected which level of importance best reflects the site, the monthly estimate should be divided by the percentage of visits made in that month. For example, if 2,300 visits are made in May to a site with good accessibility and some facilities, which is expected to be of ‘moderate’ importance, the monthly adjustment factor is 16%, which gives an estimate of annual visits of 14,375 (from 2,300 divided by 0.16).

Annual visits = monthly visits ÷ percentage (from Table 5.2) 100

A2: Rivers 5 Table A2.2 Adjustment factors for monthly variations in visit patterns Importance of site

Month HIGH1 MODERATE2 FAIR3 (likely to draw visitors (likely to draw visitors (likely to draw visitors from >30 km) from 15-30 km) from up to 15 km)

January 3% 9% 14%

February 3% 3% 9%

March 8% 6% 7%

April 10% 8% 7%

May 16% 16% 9%

June 10% 11% 7%

July 17% 13% 6%

August 16% 7% 10%

September 5% 10% 8%

October 4% 8% 9%

November 4% 3% 7%

December 4% 6% 6%

Source: Environment Agency (2003)

Consultation-based estimates

A range of different organisations may hold data on the number of visitors to a given river or wetland site. Some of these organisations may have undertaken their own site surveys, or may hold data on car park usage, etc. that can be used to form the basis for developing visitor estimates. This includes:

• District Councils, which may hold data on levels of car park usage or which may have undertaken some counts of users of local parks; • British Waterways, which hold data on average visit rates to different canals and navigable rivers; • Wildlife Trusts, which may hold data on visitor numbers to different wetland sites • Tourist Offices, which may have carried out surveys of the activities undertaken by visitors to an area and the location of those activities; • Ramblers’ Clubs, where a footpath runs along or across a site that is used for longer walks and hiking; and • other local clubs, such as birdwatching clubs, who may regularly visit.

6 A2: Rivers Club secretaries may only be able to give an indication of the number of visits likely to be made by their members, or may be able to provide guesstimates of visit rates more generally.

The format in which the data is provided will determine the steps to derive an annual estimate of number of visits. This may involve following the appropriate step(s) above.

One other factor that may affect the accuracy of consultation-based data relates to member and non-member activities. For example, clubs may be able to provide good estimates of numbers of member trips to the site, but have no data on non-member trips. Table A2.3 gives an indication of the number of trips that may be made by members to rivers or canals that provide good sites for informal recreation (this is based on only a few studies and, hence, may introduce uncertainty).

Table A2.3 Adjustment figures for taking non-member visits into account Club/activity type Percent of trips made up by members

Birdwatching (RSPB) 12%

Nature conservation 6%

Waterways associations 1%

Source: British Waterways (1994), in Environment Agency (2003)

Total number of visits = number of member trips ÷ percentage (from Table 5.3) 100

Default data

If no site specific data are available, the alternative is to use default data to estimate visitor numbers. In using the default data provided below, the qualitative assessment concerning accessibility, the provision of facilities and the general attractiveness of the site should be taken into account. Two different sets of default assumptions have been developed by Green et al. (1992). These are set out in Table A2.4 overleaf, with the definitions of a local park and honeypot site being as follows (FWR 1996):

• Local Park: visitors travel mainly by foot and the site has no special attractions. Relevant population in terms of a multiplier is that living within 1 km of the site; and • Honeypot Site: visitors travel by car, there is some special attraction and there are facilities such as a car park and toilets at the site. The relevant population (in terms of a multiplier) lives within 3 km of the site.

A2: Rivers 7 These definitions apply to local sites only. The use of the population within these distances as a multiplier takes into account the fact that not everyone within these distances will visit the site, but also that people further away will visit the site; the two are assumed to balance each other out. Regional and national sites are likely to attract visitors from much greater distances. Such sites may include long distance footpaths, be connected to tourist sites or be in National Parks, Areas of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB), etc. However, only a proportion of the population is considered likely to make such trips each year.

The standard values presented in Table A2.4 are based on research on a series of rivers in the Thames Region of the Agency and from the Day Visits Survey undertaken by the Countryside Recreation Network.

In order to use the above equations, estimates on the appropriate visitor population should be obtained by: • drawing a circle around the river with a radius equal to the most appropriate distance shown in Table A2.4. GIS-data, census data or an OS map could help determining the population (number of adults) within the circle (for regional/national sites the appropriate proportion of the population expected to visit that site each year should be applied): population = number of people living within the circle drawn x percentage of population expected to visit the site (regional/national sites only) • or, using population density data, calculate the affected population using the following formula: population1 = 3.14 x distance (in km) squared (from Table 5.4) x population density x percentage of population expected to visit the site (regional/national sites only)

1 population = ʌ x (distance)2 x population density (where ʌ = 3.14).

8 A2: Rivers Table A2.4 Standard data for estimating informal recreation visitor numbers Site type Importance Visit rate Total visits per annum Per Average Total Likely site adult distance visits per characteristics per year from site annum Local (‘Fair’ Upper 27.6 1 km 30,000 access: good importance) facilities: good/moderate Mid 21.3 1 km 20,000 access: moderate facilities: moderate/fair Lower 17.1 1 km 10,000 access: fair facilities: fair/poor Honeypot Upper 17 3 km 250,000 urban area (‘Fair’ to access: good ‘Moderate’ facilities: Importance) good/moderate Mid 17 3 km 125,000 suburban area access: good/moderate facilities: moderate/fair Lower 17 3 km 60,000 rural area access: moderate facilities: fair/poor Regional/ Upper 2 60 km 540,000 10% of population national site within 60 km visit site (‘moderate’ to each year ‘high’ access: good importance) facilities: good Mid 2 30 km 270,000 20% of population within 30 km visit site each year access: good/moderate facilities: good/moderate Lower 9 10 km 180,000 26% of population within 10 km visit site each year access: moderate/fair facilities: moderate/fair

Source: based on Green et al. (1992); and CRN (1996), in Environment Agency (2003)

Availability of alternative sites

A key issue that arises in estimating informal recreation benefits (and other recreation benefits) concerns the existence of alternative sites and the degree to which this will impact on visitor numbers to the site in question. When deciding whether a site is likely to be an alternative site, it should be considered whether the level of access, facilities and quality are likely to be similar to the site. This is particularly important for regional/national sites, where potential

A2: Rivers 9 alternatives must also be of regional/national importance to be considered appropriate alternatives.

If there are alternative sites within the same distance as considered above, the total number of adult visits per annum should be divided by the number of alternative sites plus one (to account for the site in question). Number of visits to site in question = total number of visits (estimated above) number of alternative sites plus one

Reality checks

The estimation of participation rates is normally associated with a high degree of uncertainty. The following checks are suggested to examine whether the calculated figures are of the right order of magnitude (especially when using default data).

The first check is to divide the estimate of annual visits by 365 to calculate the implied number of visitors per day to see whether this figure seems right in the context of the site, access to it and its characteristics. The default data in particular may lead to overestimates in rural areas or for poor quality sites.

Reality check 1: daily number of visits = number of visits to your site 365

Table A2.5 provides an indication of the number of visits made to different rivers, with details given on the type of river, level of access, facilities and importance provided. These can then be compared with the descriptions given in Table 6.4 and the site to determine whether the estimates are likely to be realistic.

10 A2: Rivers Table A2.5 Number of trips per year to different rivers/canals River/canal Description Number of visits per year River Nene Long distance footpath (regional/national 1,800/km importance) Moderate facilities and good access Alternatives available (e.g. Cam, Ouse)

Caen Hill Locks Nationally important site with feature of 94,000 near Devizes, locks (68,000 visitors plus Kennet and Avon Popular attraction with good access 26,000 locals) Canal Count taken by infra-red pedestrian counter Maidenhead Ditch Runs through Maidenhead town before 41,000 joining the Thames at Bray Access good, but attracts mainly local residents (within 3 km), few facilities Number of alternative sites available (including the Thames) Ravensbourne Queen’s Mead recreation ground, Bromley, 125,000 River Kent Many visits to park rather than specifically to river; river of poor quality, access good, few facilities, mainly used for sporting activities River Skerne River running through Darlington prior to 7,800 restoration Access fair to moderate with no facilities, very poor water quality, visited by local residents only (those living within no more than 1 km from the river)

Source: Environment Agency (2003)

Benefits transfer

Once the number of visitors has been calculated, it is necessary to find a best fit value in order to value the impacts on recreation. The choice of value will depend on the type of impacts arising from the different options. Different transfer values are provided in Table A2.6, these are based on WTP values. The transfer values should be multiplied by the number of visits, when the value is given as a ‘per visit’ value, or by the number of households, where the transfer value is given as a ‘per household’ value.

A2: Rivers 11 Table A2.6 Suggested transfer values for changes in quality and recreation (2001 prices) Study From To Transfer value Required adjustments

Rivers

Coker et al Channel partly Channel filled £1.35 per visit Study relates to (1990) filled with water with water (litter Maidenhead residents (also litter removed from and visitors from the within river channel and surrounding area. channel and river banks) Adjustment for wealth along river may be deemed banks) appropriate Tapsell et al Channelised Creation of new £2.91 to £3.61 No adjustment (1992) river system meanders, per user suggested when bankside (dependent on assessing local planting and degree of habitat schemes some habitat creation) Garner et al. Straightened River £8.75 per adult No adjustment (1995) river channel restoration per visit suggested when with some through assessing local adjoining park channel schemes. Adjustment area modifications, for wealth may be habitat creation deemed appropriate. and landscaping Jacobs Gibb Low flows Full restoration <0.5 km: £0.34 Adjustments are (2002) every 4 or 5 to low flows per household proposed for different years out of 20 once every 20 per km per year site characteristics. years years These are still under 0.51-3 km: £0.25 development, but users per household may want to examine per km per year the implications. WTP values adjusted for high 3-12 km: £0.07 income of respondents per household per km per year

12-60 km: £0.03 per household per km per year

ERM and Low flow Environmentall £8.20 per visitor Apply unit of Willis (1992) conditions y acceptable household per measurement flow regime in year depending on River Darent information available Wetlands

Woodward Wetland Wetland of £3,944 per Is an international value and Wui providing little value for hectare per and must be treated as (2001) habitat and no birdwatching annum being indicative only value of single service provision of birdwatching O’Neill (2001) No Provision of £0.08, £1.72 and Values vary across birdwatching birdwatching at £2.85 per visit to sites so site different inland Tudeley Woods, characteristics should wetland sites Weir Wood and be considered in

12 A2: Rivers Study From To Transfer value Required adjustments

Pulborough choosing a value Brooks Klein and Current site Protection £1.69 per visit Apply unit of Bateman quality and against future or £51.42 per measurement (2001) characteristics damage to the household per depending on site and loss of annum (assumes information available. birdwatching 13 visits per Adjustment for resident and habitat adult/annum and household visitors may 2.3 be needed adult/household)

Source: Environment Agency (2003)

A2: Rivers 13 A3. Angling

Overview

This section looks at the valuation of angling impacts from the implementation of flood management and coastal defence options. The rationale for considering these impacts separately is that anglers are normally deemed as a special type of recreational users (as for example, in the Multi-Coloured Manual) (Penning- Rowsell et al. 2003); other methodologies do also consider anglers as a separate user category.

When it comes to valuation, though, the Multi-Coloured Manual does not distinguish between anglers and more general/informal users, that is to say, there is not a different set of values for the valuation of angling impacts. The AMP4 methodology, on the contrary, gives different values for valuing angling impacts. This section looks at the AMP4 methodology for inferring the number of anglers visiting rivers and valuing impacts on recreational fisheries in the flood management and coastal defence context.

Qualitative description

The first step is to determine whether an impact on angling is expected and, if so, to describe it in qualitative terms. The qualitative description of impacts should be included in the AST with this answering the following:

• is there access to the river? Will access to the site to be improved under any of the options? • is there a fishery in the river now? What is the current fishery type (no fishery, coarse fishery, trout fishery or salmon fishery)? Is the fishery ‘natural’, or ‘stocked’, is the river natural or modified? What are the characteristics of the fishery (upstream, middle reaches, pool and riffle, lowland, etc.)? • will the option result in the creation of a new fishery, i.e. the creation of a game fishery where a river is currently only capable of supporting a coarse fishery or the creation of a fishery where no fishery currently exists? Could these result from the removal or introduction of structures, pools and riffles, side ponds, etc.? • how long is it expected to take before the impact is noticeable in the river (in years)? This will be influenced by including bankside planting, introduction of gravel beds, etc. • what length of river will see this change (in km)? • how many anglers are likely to benefit from the option?

The current constraints on the quality of the fishery or the creation of a new fishery should also be considered, e.g. are there other constraints such as the river type or any barriers to fish movements that would prevent creation of a new fishery?

14 A3: Angling The influence of river type is summarised in Table A3.1. This shows whether a river with a particular gradient (and, hence, flow speed) could be expected to support a coarse fishery only, coarse and game fishery or game fishery only and the probable maximum quality of fishery that may be obtained. The table should be taken as a guide to whether it is theoretically feasible to create a new fishery or to improve the quality of a current fishery.

Table A3.1 River gradient and maximum fishery types that can be supported River Gradient (m/km) Coarse Game

0 to 1 (very slow) Good -

1 to 2 (slow) Good-moderate Moderate-poor (possible, but unlikely) 2 to 4 (moderate) Moderate-poor Moderate-poor

4 to 8 (rapid) Poor (possible, but unlikely) Good-moderate

>8 (very rapid) - Good-moderate

Source: Environment Agency (2003)

Quantitative assessment

One of the key variables in determining benefits from the option is the number of anglers that may be affected. Table A3.2 sets out the different types of information that can be obtained on participation rates. The ‘best’ information is given towards the top of the table; this is the most site-specific. Default values are given where the other sources of information are not available or where time constraints mean such information cannot be obtained.

Table A3.2 Information sources for participation rates Source(s) Type of Information Required

Site visits or visitor surveys Counts of anglers along the affected stretch at different times during the day and year to give the basis for an estimate of annual number of visits (but remember the close seasons)

Consultation with angling Number of trips made to affected river per year (or per clubs/owner of the fishery week if per year is not available) (by members and, where available, through day tickets to non- members/general public). Numbers of members of angling clubs could also be used with their views on average number of times they fish

Environment Agency rod licence Number of rod licences in local area by postal code zone data Default data Information provided in tables given below

A3: Angling 15 Site visits or visitor surveys

The result of a count made during a site visit and/or visitor survey will give a direct estimate of the number of anglers at that particular time. It is then necessary to aggregate up this count so that an estimate of the annual number of anglers can be obtained. Close season must be taken into consideration. These run from 15 March to 15 June for coarse fishing. The close season for salmon and trout (game) fishing varies from three to six months according to the river in question, with close seasons being 31 October to 1 February for salmon and 30 September to 1 March for sea trout (unless otherwise stated in local byelaws).

Where direct information on the annual number of trips is unavailable, it is necessary to aggregate up from the site count to estimate annual number of visits. A review of studies and surveys has been undertaken as forming the basis for the division of trips into weekdays and weekend days. This is given in Table A3.3.

Table A3.3 Proportion of visits made on weekdays and weekend days Day of Week Percentage of Trips Made

Weekday (per day) 4.4%

Weekend (per day) 39%

Source: CRN (1996), in Environment Agency (2003)

Weekly trips = daily estimate ÷ percentage (from Table 5.9) 100 Monthly trips = weekly trips x 4

Using this information, a site count taken on a Saturday, which saw 25 anglers along 3 km of accessible banks would be converted to 64 weekly trips (from 25 divided by 0.39). This then needs to be multiplied to a monthly total. Multiplying it by four gives 256 trips per month. An estimate of the annual number of trips can then be made by using the figures given in Table A3.4. The table also highlights the close season months by type of fishery. Continuing the example, the count was taken in July, which represents 18% of all trips; this gives estimated annual number of trips of 1,425.

Annual trips = monthly trips ÷ percentage (from Table 5.10) 100

16 A3: Angling Table A3.4 Monthly variations in visit patterns as percentage visiting each month by activity Month Percentage of Coarse Sea Trout Salmon angling trips January 6% Open season Close season: Close season: ends 1 March – ends 1 no sea trout February – no fishing salmon fishing February 3% Open season

March 3% Open season Close season: mid-March to mid- April 8% June – no coarse fishing May 6%

June 14% Open season July 18%

August 10%

September 15%

October 8% Close season: starts 1 October November 8% – no sea trout Close season: fishing starts 1 December 1% November – no salmon fishing

Notes: Percent of visits per month taken from RPA (1997) Close seasons for sea trout and salmon may vary according to local byelaws Source: Environment Agency (2003)

Consultation with angling clubs/owner of the fishery

Angling club secretaries and/or the owner of the fishery are often a good source of information on the number of anglers that visit a particular stretch of river. In many cases, this will be limited to the number of visits to stretches of river owned (or leased) by their club, but it may cover members of the angling club and day tickets purchased by non-members to give a good estimate of participation. Where there are also lengths of river with open access, angling clubs may be able to give an indication of the number of trips made by club members but may not include trips made by the general public.

The NRA Angling Survey 1994 gives the following estimates of club membership by fishery type. This is shown in Table A3.5 and can be used to estimate the number of trips made by non-members to a fishery when you have obtained an estimate of member trips.

A3: Angling 17 Table A3.5 Attendance at different fishery categories according to membership status Fishery type % Members % Non-members

Coarse fishery 51% to 56% 44% to 49% Trout (non-migratory salmonid) fishery 55% 45% Salmon (migratory salmonid) fishery 62% 38%

Source: based on information given in NRA (1995): National Angling Survey 1994, and supporting information from the FWR Manual (1996); in Environment Agency (2003)

Environment Agency rod licence data

Obtaining the number of rod licences within the local area (by postal code zones) will give the basis for estimating the potential number of anglers that visit the affected river. To do this, it is necessary to determine what distance from the river is likely to include those anglers who would visit the river being assessed. This will be determined by the quality of the fishery and the existence of other fisheries in the area that are of a similar (or better) quality (alternative sites). The proportion of rod licence holders that will visit a coarse, trout and salmon fishery are given in Table 6.12, along with the most appropriate distances that they will travel to a particular site. These figures have been generated through a review of specific data on anglers and their visit characteristics.

Number of licence holders visiting the river = number of licence holders within given distance (from Table A3.6) x % of licence holders visiting the fishery type (from Table 6.15)

Table A3.6 Proportion of rod licence holders that may fish the affected river Fishery type Few (<2) alternative sites >2 alternative sites

Coarse fishery 35% within 30 km 35% within 15 km Trout (non-migratory salmonid) 46% within 60 km 46% within 30 km fishery Salmon (migratory salmonid) fishery 29% within 60 km 29% within 30 km

Notes: Given as a guide as to the distance that anglers may be willing to travel to visit a particular river. For very high quality fisheries (e.g. nationally, regionally known), larger distances may be appropriate. Source: Based on a number of sources including Spurgeon et al (2001), NRA (1995), in Environment Agency (2003).

The total number of angling visits being made to the affected river can be estimated by using the average number of trips made by anglers to different fishery types (Table A3.7, overleaf).

18 A3: Angling Table A3.7 Number of trips made per year to different fisheries Number of angling trips per year Fishery type Lower bound Upper bound

Coarse fishery 17 32 Game fishery 3 11

Source: based on information given in Spurgeon et al (2001) and NRA (1995) for percent of trips made to the regular site and number of trips made to each fishery type, in Environment Agency (2003)

Number of angling trips = number of licence holders visiting the river x number of trips made per year

Default data

Where no site counts, visitor survey, angling club or rod licence data are readily available, it will be necessary to use default data to estimate the potential number of anglers. When selecting the most appropriate figures the following should be considered:

• level of access to the fishery: is it privately owned with restricted access? Is it privately owned with access through angling clubs? Is it a day ticket or open access fishery? • how many alternative fisheries are there likely to be in the local area that are of similar (or better) quality? • what is the current level of angling activity and the potential to attract new anglers or encourage existing anglers to make more trips to the river?

Table A3.8 provides a summary of the distances anglers may be willing to travel combined with the percentage of the population that may visit each fishery type (by Agency region).

Table A3.8 Proportion of the total population that may visit a fishery type % of Population

Fishery type Distance Anglian & Northumbria Yorkshire North West Severn Trent Southern South Western Thames Wales Coarse fishery 30 km 6% 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 3% 4% Trout fishery 60 km 7% 5% 5% 5% 7% 5% 4% 6% Salmon fishery 60 km 5% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3%

A3: Angling 19 There are two methods to infer the number of population affected:

• drawing a circle around the river with a radius equal to the most appropriate distance shown in Table 5.14 and either using GIS-data, census data or an OS map determine the population (number of adults) within the circle: population = number of people living within the circle drawn x percentage of population expected to visit the fishery type • or, using the population density data, to calculate the affected population by using the following formula: population = 3.14 x distance (in km) squared x population density

Table A3.7 shows the average number of trips made to fisheries of different type and quality. Two values are given (an upper and lower bound) to highlight uncertainty within the estimates.

Number of angling trips = population x average number of trips (Table A3.7)

Alternative sites

The estimated number of angling trips made to each fishery type each year is calculated by multiplying the appropriate population by the number of trips made to each fishery type. However, this needs to be corrected for the number of alternative sites that may be available. The adjustment is made by estimating the number of alternative sites of better or similar angling opportunities and dividing the total number of angling trips made each year by the number of alternative sites plus one (to account for the site in question).

Number of angling trips total number of angling trips (from above) to site in question = number of alternative sites plus one

Reality checks

The estimation of participation rates can often be associated with a high degree of uncertainty. The following checks are designed to give an indication of whether the obtained participation rate estimates are likely to be appropriate for the affected length of river in question. There are two approaches given here: • comparison with maximum angler densities; and • comparison with expected number of visitors to different types and qualities of fishery.

These comparisons are not designed to estimate participation rates, but rather to provide an indication of the expected number of visitors.

20 A3: Angling Comparison with maximum angler densities

For coarse fishing, there is generally one angler per 25m of bank2, while for game fishing, there is (at most) one angler per 50 m of bank. To test whether the participation rate estimates are appropriate, it is assumed that 78% of angling trips are made at weekends, i.e. Saturday and Sunday, and this is the basis for determining if the participation rates are unreasonably high. For a coarse or salmon fishery, there are around 76 ‘weekend days’ and for a sea trout fishery 62 ‘weekend days’ within the open season. Thus in order to calculate the number of anglers per km bank the following is applied:

Coarse/salmon fishery: daily number of visits = no. of angling trips x 0.78 ÷ 76

Sea trout fishery: daily number of visits = number of angling trips x 0.78 ÷ 62

Number of anglers per bank = length of accessible river bank ÷ daily no. of visits

For example, if there are 3,200 angling trips made annually to a coarse fishery, the number of ‘weekend days’ trips is estimated at 2,500 (3,200 multiplied by 78%), which gives an average of 33 trips per weekend day. If the affected length of accessible riverbank is 5 km, the average density on a weekend day can be estimated at 1 angler per 150m. Therefore, the estimated annual number of trips does not appear to be unreasonably high.

Comparison with expected number of angling trips

Table A3.9 provides a number of sites where the number of angling visitors has been counted. These figures may provide a useful comparison against the estimates.

Table A3.9 Visitor numbers to selected angling sites Location Fishery type and description Number of anglers Mawddach Regionally important salmon river, access through 1,980/km bank (Dolgellau) angling club/day ticket and/or for visitors to per year accommodation with privately owned stretches River Waveney Locally important coarse fishery (with day tickets 2,100/km bank available for visitors/tourists) per year Rutland Water Stillwater trout fishing, regionally important lake 1,400/km bank stocked with trout per year Grafham Water Stillwater trout fishing, regionally important lake 1,100/km bank stocked with trout per year 12-acre lake in Non-migratory trout in lake with access by day ticket 280/km bank North West per year Source: Based on consultation undertaken by RPA when assessing impacts on angling for a number of river/lake schemes, plus published visitor numbers (where available), in Environment Agency (2003)

2 It could be expected, however, that this average density may be higher in urban areas owing to higher levels of demand.

A3: Angling 21 Benefits transfer

The contingent valuation studies undertaken as part of the development of the FWR Manual (FWR, 1996) derived a range of values relating to the improvement of the quality of a fishery, where this includes moving from no fishery to a high-class fishery. These values are presented in Table A3.10 for coarse angling. These are the best estimates currently available for use in BT. They were derived specifically for use in a BT context. The surveys were undertaken in a number of different locations across England and Wales with the aim of generating mean estimates that would be broadly correct within any regional context, in terms of variations in river types and characteristics and in socio-economic characteristics.

Table A3.10 Benefit per angling trip for improvements in a coarse fishery (2001 prices) Marginal value of Willingness to pay per Quality of fishery to be created improvement in angling day fishery quality ‘Poor’ No fishery to poor (assumed average fish biomass £4.30 per person per trip = £4.30 <600g/100m2) ‘Moderate’ Poor fishery to (assumed average fish biomass £4.53 per person per trip moderate = £0.23 600-2000g/100m2) ‘Good’ Moderate fishery to (assumed average fish biomass £6.87 per person per trip 2 good = £2.34 >2000g/100m )

Source: Green and Willis (1996) in Environment Agency (2003)

The study undertaken by Green and Willis (1996) for the FWR Manual also determined willingness to pay (WTP) values for the creation of different quality trout fisheries, with the resulting values set out in Table A3.11.

Table A3.11 Benefit per angling trip for improvements in a trout fishery (2001 prices) Marginal value Willingness to pay of improvement Quality of fishery to be created per angling day in fishery quality ‘Poor’ £9.81 per person per Coarse to poor (assumed average fish density of fish >20 cm, trip trout <0.8 fish per 100m2) =£1.94 ‘Moderate’ £11.43 per person per Poor to (assumed average fish density of fish >20 cm, trip moderate 0.8 - 2 fish per 100m2) = £1.62 ‘Good’ £17.91 per person per Moderate to (assumed average fish density of fish >20 cm, trip good >2 fish per 100m2) = £6.48

Source: Green and Willis (1996); FWR Manual: Assessing the Benefits of Surface Water Quality Improvements, in Environment Agency (2003).

22 A3: Angling Only two surveys have been identified which have derived estimates of the value of a salmon angling day. The first was undertaken by Radford (1984) and found a value of roughly £17.30 per angler per day. The second study is that undertaken for the FWR Manual. A value of £28.20 per person per trip was found for the creation of a new, good quality site, where an average angler had a 1 in 10 chance of catching a salmon each day3. Both values could be carried forward as a lower and upper bound, as they will provide a range and an indication of the uncertainty surrounding the estimates.

3 The figure of £28.20 is supported by research undertaken on salmon fisheries in Northern Ireland (Davis and O’Neill 1992). This study found WTP values of between £20 and £28.50 (depending on experience) for maintaining access to angling licences and permits in Northern Ireland

A3: Angling 23 A4. Coastal sites

A4.1 Recreation

Overview

This section discusses the valuation of recreational benefits from coastal protection and draws on the multi-coloured manual with regard to transfer values. This is because the values used in other methodologies are of more limited transferability, being linked with water quality changes. There is another advantage from using the values provided in the multi-coloured manual, this being that they include more specialist users. For aggregation, the methodology proposed in the AMP4 methodology has been adjusted in order to integrate informal and more specialist recreational users.

Qualitative description of impacts

The first step in the assessment is to determine whether recreation activities take place along the beaches/shoreline that will be affected by the scheme. To do this, the following questions are to be considered: • how long is the relevant shoreline that will be affected and what is the extent of the access to the shoreline? Are there car parks, promenades, footpaths, etc. providing access? • does recreation take place along the shoreline now? Are there any data on visitor numbers to the shoreline area? To what extent is the shoreline likely to be used for recreation purposes throughout the year? • would it be likely to develop new recreational opportunities or change existing recreational activities in the future if the option is implemented (e.g. increasing the length of the promenade)? In answering this the decision maker should think about whether there is a nearby population centre and whether there are already nicer areas nearby that draw more local residents. The answers to the above questions should be summarised and incorporated into the AST. If benefits to recreational users are expected to arise, then the next step is to move on to the quantitative assessment.

Quantitative assessment for recreation

There are a number of different methods available for estimating the number of people that may visit a particular beach for recreation purposes. The ‘best’ method will depend upon (i) the amount of information that is readily available and (ii) the amount of time you have to obtain and/or calculate potential participation rates.

Table A4.1 sets out two different approaches for estimating the number of beach users. The first relates to actual counts that have been made on the

24 A4: Coastal Sites beach by lifeguards, the local council (including car park counts) or a count taken on a site visit. Default values are given where the other sources of information are not available or where time constraints mean site-specific information cannot be obtained.

Table A4.1 Information sources for participation rates Source(s) Type of Information Required

Site visits or visitor surveys Counts of number of beach/shoreline visitors on the beach over a specified period of time Car park data can also be used to give an indication of the potential number of beach/shoreline visitors Default data Information provided in tables given below

Source: Environment Agency (2003)

Site visits or visitor counts

Counts of the number of visitors to a particular beach may be available from lifeguards (where present), local councils/authorities and/or other counts taken such as for Garber Data. These counts can take a number of forms. Depending on the type of data, the following adjustments will be necessary.

Adjustment for number of people travelling by car

The estimate of number of beach visitors should only include those over 16 (since these are the only visitors assumed to hold willingness to pay). Therefore, the number of adults travelling by car is based on the number of adults per household. This is estimated as 2.3 adults per household (the average number of adults per household as given by National Statistics 2002). Therefore, to convert number of cars to number of beach visitors, the number of cars counted should be multiplied by 2.3.

Adjustment for day of the week that the count was taken

Where counts are given for a specific day, it is necessary to convert this into a weekly total. Table A4.2 sets out the proportion of beach users that use beaches on specific days. These figures are based on the Countryside Recreation Network’s Day Visits Survey 1994 (CRN, 1996) as reported in RPA (2003). Different values are provided for England and Wales, as a review of studies considering numbers of beach visitors has found significant differences between the two countries. To adjust a daily count to a weekly count, the daily count should be divided by the appropriate percentage shown in Table 6.19. For example, if a count shows 134 beach visitors on a Friday in England, practitioner should divide this by 10% (0.10) to give 1,340 weekly visitors. Multiplying this weekly total by four will give an estimated monthly total.

A4: Coastal sites 25 Table A4.2 Adjustment for day of the week count was taken Adjustment Day England Wales

Weekday (per day) 8% - 10% 10% Weekend (per day)* 16 % - 44% 15% - 33%

* range reflects variation according to bathing visits; Source: based on CRN (1996), in Environment Agency (2003)

Adjustment for month in which count was taken

As with the daily counts, the number of trips made to a beach varies by month, with the peak months tending to be July and August in England and August and September in Wales. Table A4.3 provides an indication of the proportion of beach visits that are made each month. The practitioner should adjust the monthly totals by dividing by the percentage given for the month in which the count was taken. For example, if a monthly count of 275 beach visitors was taken in October in England, the practitioner should divide this by 6% (0.06) to give an annual estimate of beach visitors of 4,600. The user should compare this figure with the reality checks.

Table A4.3 Adjustment for month in which count was taken Day Adjustment factors

England Wales

January 6% 8% February 3% 2% March 3% 4% April* 6% - 23% 8% - 10% May* 11% - 19% 2% - 13% June* 6% - 19% 9% - 12% July* 9% - 22% 10% - 15% August* 14% - 23% 14% - 21% September* 7% - 11% 16% - 31% October 6% 5% November 5% 6% December 6% 12%

* range reflects variation according to bathing visits (for large sandy coastal sites, visits will increase in summer time, towards the upper end of the range). Source: based on CRN (1996), in Environment Agency (2003)

26 A4: Coastal sites Default data

Where count data are not readily available, the number of recreation trips to the beach can be estimated using default data. To estimate the number of recreational trips, the following steps should be followed:

Step 1: determination of the appropriate distance from which visitors are likely to travel to the affected beach. Table A4.4 sets out some default distances, which are based on the specific properties of different beach types. A review of the literature has shown significant differences between England and Wales, hence different assumptions are used for beaches in these countries.

Table A4.4 Distances from which a visitor may travel to visit a particular beach Beach type Estimated distance

England Wales

Small beach, little access, valued for ‘peace 30 km 15 km and quiet’ Small resort, good access, some beach 50 km 25 km facilities available Large resort (long beach), facilities and 130 km 65 km entertainment available

Source: Environment Agency (2003)

Step 2: estimation of the adult population living within the distance identified from Table A4.4. To use population densities the practitioner will need to multiply the square of the distance from which a visitor may travel to the beach by 3.14 and by the population density to obtain the visitor population4. For example, the population density in Lincolnshire is 100 people/km2. For a small resort, we would expect visitors to travel from up to 50km away. This gives a total potential visitor population of 785,000.

Step 3: not all of these potential visitors are likely to visit a beach. The estimated number of beach visitors is obtained by multiplying by 3% for beaches in England and 8% for beaches in Wales (based on CRN 1996, as reported in RPA 2003). For the small resort in Lincolnshire, the number of beach visitors can be estimated at 24,000.

Step 4: visitors may make more than one visit to the beach each year. Table A4.5 sets out the number of trips made by visitors to the beach/seaside each year. Using Table 6.26, the number of visits to the beach in Lincolnshire can be estimated at between 140,000 and 350,000 per year.

4 The formula to be applied is: ʌ (3.14) x (distance a visitor may travel)2 x population density.

A4: Coastal sites 27 Table A4.5 Number of trips made to the beach/seaside each year Beach Type Number of trips per person per year England Wales Recreation trips 9.75 - 14.5 15.7 - 24

Source: CRN (1996), in Environment Agency (2003)

Step 6: where there are alternative sites of a similar type and quality within the distance that a visitor may travel, only a proportion of all trips are likely to be made to the affected site. Thus, the number of visits to the site will be obtained by dividing the total number of visitors by the number of alternative sites plus one.

Number of households

Some of the BT values use willingness to pay per household per annum rather than per visit. Where there is a site count, the total count represents the number of household groups. The number of household visits is obtained by dividing the count by 2.3. The next step is to follow the approach set out above to adjust for the day and month in which the count was taken. Finally, the number of household visits needs dividing by the number of trips made per year (see Table A4.5).

Reality checks

Table A4.6 provides an indication of the number of recreational visitors estimated for different beach types (as reported in RPA, 2003). Note that not all these types of visitors are included, and thus figures may under or overestimate the total number of visitors. The figures are offered for comparison purposes only, i.e. for checking whether the estimates are of the right order of magnitude, thus they do not aim to replace estimates for the number of visitors to the site.

Table A4.6 Numbers of users at different beach types Beach location Number of Beach/site description recreation trips per year Pembrokeshire Coast Path1 1,500,000 Coastal path is main site for walking (4,300/km of path) in area, running for 300km from Amroth to Poppit Whitmore Bay, Wales2 210,000 Large sandy beach with easy access and good facilities Llandudno North Shore2 34,000 Resort town with wide promenade. Good access and facilities Llandanwg2 23,000 Less of a resort beach with mixed sand, shingle and rock. Attracts active visitors rather than sunbathers. Good access and some facilities

28 A4: Coastal sites Beach location Number of Beach/site description recreation trips per year Pendennis Head, Cornwall2 26,000 On South West Coast Path, important visitor attraction, car park St Anthony Head, Cornwall2 9,200 On South West Coast Path, car park

South West Coast Path2 1,100/km of path Estimate taken from South West Coast Path Survey; important and well-used footpath around the coastline Blackpool, central2 130,000 Large resort with wide beach and promenade Mablethorpe, Lincolnshire3 166,000 Large resort on Lincolnshire coast, includes dog walking, walking, games by holiday makers, day trippers and local residents Heysham, North West2 48,000 Sandy, popular beach Sutton-on-Sea, 71,000 Spacious beach, with peace and quiet Lincolnshire3 one of its main attractions Haverigg, North West2 9,000 Sand dunes, high amenity Huttoft, Lincolnshire3 11,000 Small resort, peace and quiet an important attraction, people can drive onto car terrace to look at sea Allonby South, North West2 600 to 2,300 Sand and rock, slightly muddy, popular beach 1 Includes water sport participants 2 Informal recreation only 3 Includes bathers Source: based on Environment Agency (2003)

BT for coastal recreation benefits

In 1992, the Flood Hazard Research Centre developed and tested a variant of the CV method, based on the value of enjoyment (VOE) per adult visit. This is one of the recommended approaches for use in coastal recreation benefit assessment in the Multi-Coloured Manual (Penning-Rowsell et al., 2003) and is also accepted by FCDPAG 3 at the pre feasibility stage. In the VOE approach, respondents are asked to put a value on their enjoyment of a day’s visit under varying options in £’s and pence, therefore measuring use value alone. Visitors are classified as follows:

• local visitors: those living within a 3 mile radius of a site, which is deemed to be possible walking distance; • day visitors: anyone starting and finishing their trip from their permanent home, including some who may define themselves as locals but who live more than three miles away from the site; and

A4: Coastal sites 29 • staying visitors: anyone staying away from home for one or more nights. This includes visitors not staying at or near the site but making a day trip there while staying away from home.

The annual recreation benefits can then be determined as:

Annual benefits = £ value of the option (VOE gains and/or losses or WTP valuations) x number of visits per annum (VOE) or number of beneficiaries/visitors (WTP).

Table A4.7 shows average losses under the ‘do-nothing’ options. Table A4.8 shows average gains under the ‘do something’ options, including a description of the change with the option.

Table A4.7 £ losses per adult visit with erosive changes at coastal sites – ‘do-nothing’ Site Change with % expecting £ loss mean per adult visit – erosion less updated to 2001 enjoyment Local Day Staying All

Beach and promenade erosion

Yellow Deterioration in 85% 2.36 3.53 8.28 5.36 Manual beach and Standard promenade data: 4 sites Lee-on-Solent Shingle beach NA 3.05 2.12 3.74 2.74 erosion Herne Bay Deterioration in - 2.72 2.55 10.61 5.25 Visitors beach, seawall survey and promenade collapsed in parts Cliftonville Cliff erosion, 83% 6.46 6.32 5.65 5.91 deterioration in beach, cliff top promenade closed in parts Corton Cliff erosion, 81% 2.08 - 1.82 1.89 (Residents deterioration in staying beach and seawall visitors) very reduced access to, and along beach and seawall St Mildred’s Severe damage to 92% 6.92 7.84 8.25 7.71 Bay esplanade wall, esplanade unsafe and closed in parts Hastings Beach NA NA NA NA 5.43 deterioration

30 A4: Coastal sites Site Change with % expecting £ loss mean per adult visit – erosion less updated to 2001 enjoyment Local Day Staying All

Breach scenarios

Hengistbury Breach, boat 62% 4.44 3.26 3.55 2.80 Head access only to Head, reduced cliff top area and paths Hurst Spit Breach to shingle 98% 2.41 6.36 3.60 4.90 spit, access by boat only

Source: Penning-Rowsell et al (2003)

A4: Coastal sites 31 Table A4.8 £ gains per adult visit with coastal protection scheme options at coastal sites – ‘do-something’

Change with scheme £ gain mean per adult visit – updated to 2001 Site options Local Day Staying All

Beach and promenade erosion Yellow Nourished beach and 1.55 2.69 1.95 2.22 Manual promenade Standard data: 4 sites Lee-on- (a) Shingle beach 1.29 1.23 1.26 1.26 Solent renourishment (b) Rock groynes 1.24 1.18 0.75 1.24 Herne Bay (a) Reef or jetty with no Visitors boat facilities 2.88 2.46 5.53 3.82 survey (b) Reef or jetty with boat 2.74 1.87 1.73 1.98 facilities (c) Higher seawall, and 1.74 2.46 2.81 2.45 promenade, rock groynes Cliftonville (a) Concrete lower 1.75 1.59 4.19 3.36 promenade (b) Rock lower promenade 0.89 1.37 2.47 1.97 Corton (a) Hold the line for a 1.99 - 1.84 1.88 limited period Short term protection to cliff, limited access to beach and along seawall (b) Hold the line for a longer 13.64 - 6.83 8.40 period >50 years. Full access along renewed seawall and onto all the beach from village (c) Managed retreat. -0.20 - 1.81 1.30 Sea defences and seawall removed to leave a ‘natural’ seafront’, direct access from village to beach St Mildred’s Improved beach and 2.39 1.73 1.98 2.10 Bay promenade Hastings Beach improvement NA NA NA Breach scenario Hengistbury (a) five rock groynes full cliff -0.01 0.53 -0.22 0.04 Head protection (b) three rock groynes -2.16 -1.07 -2.72 -2.13 partial protection (c) beach nourishment -1.96 -3.18 -4.69 -3.22 Annual disruption

32 A4: Coastal sites Change with scheme £ gain mean per adult visit – updated to 2001 Site options Local Day Staying All Hurst Spit Slightly enlarged shingle 0.83 0.33 0.59 0.51 spit

Source: Penning-Rowsell et al. (2003) WTP values for coastal protection are given in Table A4.9. The problem with these, however, is that they do not allow for option comparison between ‘do something’ options, thus limiting their applicability to the appraisal of different flood and coastal defence standards of protection.

Table A4.9 Willingness to pay for coastal protection Site Survey Sample Payment WTP % WTP £ Mean date size vehicle format WTP: and type Updated to 2001 Peacehaven 1988 214 Increased WTP 55% cliff top Residents rates and diagram overall taxes p.a. 50p starting 2.92 point £1 starting 4.52 point Herne Bay 1990 189 Extra national WTP diagram 3% Residents and local overall taxes p.a. 40p starting 7.48 point 80p starting 8.94 point Herne Bay 1990 143 Extra national WTP diagram 55% Visitors and local overall taxes p.a. 40p starting 4.81 point 80p starting 6.33 point Hurst Spit 1991 550 Additional WTP payment 74% Visitors taxes p.a. ladder overall 25p starting 12.14 point £32 starting 53.52 point St Mildred’s 1992 462 Extra national WTP payment 61% 39.70 Bay Visitors and local ladder overall taxesp.a. and two starting points: 25p and £128

A4: Coastal sites 33 Site Survey Sample Payment WTP % WTP £ Mean date size vehicle format WTP: and type Updated to 2001 Cliftonville 1993 528 Small WTP payment 62% 23.79 Visitors increase in ladder overall national and with two local taxes starting points: p.a. 50p and £64 Caister (1) 1997 452 Extra taxes Open question NA every year Visitors 34.84 Local 28.47 residents

Source: Penning-Rowsell et al. (2003)

34 A4: Coastal sites A5. Sensitivity analysis

Sensitivity analysis is an important part of the economic appraisal of impacts as a means of checking the robustness of the valuation of impacts. It is recognised as a paramount step in the different appraisal methodologies, including flood management and coastal defence appraisals, but also more general government guidance. The Green Book (HM Treasury 2003), for instance, notes that where there is significant uncertainty about values assigned to outputs and outcomes, or to their probabilities, sensitivity analysis can establish how vulnerable the conclusions of the appraisal are to alternative plausible assumptions (HM Treasury 2003).

Within the flood management and coastal defence context, FCDPAG 3 notes that, for major projects, it is particularly important to identify ‘switching points’ where a change in the assumptions would change the option choice (MAFF 1999).

The purpose of the sensitivity analysis should thus be to assess the impact that changing the values of parameters would have on the benefits of the option, that is, the impacts of changing assumptions on calculating the number of users affected, when applicable, and/or benefits transfer values. FCDPAG 3 also lists other possibilities for inclusion within the sensitivity analysis, and those more applicable to benefits transfer are:

• timing of benefits/dis-benefits, that is, when impacts are expected to arise and cease; and • threshold of flooding (for instance, sensitiveness about the level and frequency of flooding affecting recreation and angling under different management options).

It is important, however, to undertake a sensitivity analysis in a reasonable manner. The Green Book stresses that although sensitivity analysis can be carried out on all parameters associated with uncertainty, it is essential that this is undertaken for those factors that have the most significant impacts on the NPV. Thus, we a recommend sensitivity analysis only when there is a high degree of uncertainty to the benefits and any changes in parameters could prove important to the end-results.

A5: Sensitivity analysis 35 A6. References

FWR (1996) Assessing the Benefits of Surface Water Quality Improvements – Manual, Foundation for Water Research, Marlow.

Penning-Rowsell E, Johnson C, Tunstall S, Tapsell S, Morris J, Chatterton J, Coker A and Green C (2003): The Benefits of Flood and Coastal Defence: techniques and data for 2003 (Multi-Coloured Manual), Middlesex University, Enfield.

RPA (2003) Assessment of Benefits for Water Quality and Water Resourced Schemes in the PRO4 Environment Programme – Guidance, Report prepared for the Environment Agency.

RPA (2003) Evaluating a Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) Methodology for Application to Flood Management and Coastal Defence Appraisals – Issues Report, Report prepared for the Environment Agency.

Also refer to the Case study report.

36 A6: References Joint Defra/EA Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management R&D Programme

Annex B.1:

Case study no.1:

Assessment of the Kelling Hard to Lowestoft Ness shoreline management plan

R&D Project Record FD2013/PR2

Dissemination Status Internal: Released internally External: Released to public domain

Keywords: Multi criteria analysis, MCA, appraisal summary table, AST, decision rule

Acknowledgements The assistance of those providing information for the case studies is gratefully acknowledged.

Defra project manager: Matt Crossman, Defra, 3D Ergon House, Horseferry Rd, London, SW1P 2AL. Email: [email protected]

Publishing organisation Defra Flood Management Division Ergon House Horseferry Road London SW1P 2AL Tel: 020 7238 3000 Fax: 020 7238 6187 www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd

¬ Crown copyright (Defra); 2005

Published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Printed in the UK, March 2005 on recycled material containing 80% post-consumer waste and 20% totally chlorine free virgin pulp.

PB No. 10734/PR2 ISBN 0-85521-146-6

ii 1. Introduction

The Shoreline Management Plan (SMP) for Kelling Hard to Lowestoft Ness is being revised and updated by Halcrow Group Limited. The case study draws on information from the revision as well as the original SMP produced in 1996, but the assessment described here has been developed through the application of the Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) approach.

Key data sources for the case study include:

• William Halcrow & Partners (1995): Sheringham to Lowestoft Shoreline Management Plan Sediment Sub-Cell 3B, Phase 1, May 1995 (including maps); and • William Halcrow & Partners (1996): Sheringham to Lowestoft Shoreline Management Plan Sediment Sub-Cell 3B, Phase 2, May 1996.

1.1 Summary of the project area

The project area for the whole SMP runs along the North Norfolk coast from Kelling Hard to Lowestoft Ness. This has been sub-divided into 32 assessment units. Due to time and information constraints, three assessment units are considered in this case study. They have been selected to cover as wide a range of issues as possible. The three assessment units are:

• Cromer (urban frontage); • Winterton (rural frontage with important environmental assets); and • Trimingham to Mundesley1 (mixed urban/rural frontage with cliffs designate as SSSI).

The assessment unit for Cromer runs from Bernard Road to Cromer Coastguard Lookout. The town of Cromer has a population of 7,000 and is predominantly residential, although the town is heavily reliant on income from tourism. There are important recreational facilities including a pier, golf course, holiday amenities and the promenade. The beach is an important attraction for visitors. Cromer Sea Front County Wildlife Site (CWS) covers an area between West Runton Cliffs SSSI and Overstrand Cliffs SSSI.

Within the assessment unit for Winterton, which runs from Winterton Beach Road to Long Beach Estate, Hemsby, there are areas of SPA, SSSI, NNR and CWS. The unit is covered by the Winterton to Horsey component of the Great Yarmouth North Denes SPA, which supports a breeding population of Little Tern and Ringed Plover. Landward of the SPA is the Winterton to Horsey SSSI, which is important for rare species present in the dune and scrub. The unit falls

1 The names of the assessment units may differ slightly from those given in Halcrow Group Limited reports for the updating of the SMP. This is because maps of the scale required were only available for the 1996 SMP.

Section 1: Introduction 1 within the Norfolk Coast AONB. The main settlement within the unit is Winterton-on-Sea, a predominantly residential area with some holiday accommodation, public amenity buildings and open land. There is also good beach access and the unit attracts recreational walkers and birdwatchers. Much of the land backing the conservation and recreational areas is agricultural.

For Trimingham, the assessment unit runs from Beacon Hill to Seaview Road, Mundesley. The unit is characterised by cliffs that diminish in height towards Mundesley. A narrow sandy beach fronts the cliffs, widening slightly towards Mundesley. The unit has two large cliff top chalet/caravan parks, with residential properties behind and between the parks. All of the cliff top properties are at risk of erosion. Vale Road provides the only access to the beach for 6km south of Overstrand. Sidestrand and Trimingham Cliffs SSSI runs through the whole of the assessment unit, and require ongoing erosion to maintain the environmental interests. The whole stretch of coastline lies within the Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty (AONB).

1.2 Existing defences

The defences at Cromer include a Victorian promenade above a groyned beach. The beach also forms an important part of the defences. The condition of the defences is generally good.

There are no built defences at Winterton. The sand dunes provide natural defences and, while they are established and relatively stable, they are still mobile. The area is also generally accreting.

Timber defences above a concrete apron coupled with a timber groyne field form the defences from Trimingham to Mundesley. Much of the timber revetment is in a very poor condition.

1.3 Policy framework

The original SMP was produced in 1996 for the coastline between Sheringham and Lowestoft Ness. The framework developed within the SMP sets out a protocol for a sustainable approach to shoreline management on a wide area scale. The original SMP is currently being updated to take into account the revision to procedural guidelines for undertaking an SMP.

The preferred options within the original SMP for each of the case study assessment units were:

• Cromer (Berneard Road to Cromer Coastguard Lookout): hold the existing line; • Winterton (Winterton Beach Road to Hemsby, Long Beach Estate): ‘do- nothing’; and

2 Section 1: Introduction • Trimingham (Beacon Hill to Mundesley, Seaview Road): managed retreat of the existing line.

1.4 List of stakeholders and interested parties

As part of the revision and update of the 1996 SMP, an Extended Steering Group (ESG) has been set up. Part of the involvement of the ESG has been to identify issues and objectives for the SMP coast through participation in meetings and workshops. Table 1.1 presents the list of stakeholders invited to participate on the ESG.

Table 1.1: List of stakeholders of the Kelling Hard to Lowestoft Ness SMP ESG Name Company ESG/CG Patricia Rowe Sea Palling Parish Committee ESG Mr Terry W Morris Corton Parish Council ESG Prof. Tim O'Riordan University of East Anglia ESG Mr Stan Jeavons Environment Agency ESG Cllr Steve Chilvers Gunton and Corton Ward ESG Mr. Steve Baker North Norfolk District Council ESG Mr Roger Bell Waveney District Council ESG Mr Robin Buxton Flood Defence Committee ESG Mr Peter Murphy English Heritage ESG Mr Peter Docktor Environment Agency ESG Mr. Paul Long CLA ESG Paul Mitchlemore Environment Agency ESG Mr. Paul Hammett National Farmers Union ESG Mr Mike Dowling Great Yarmouth Borough Council ESG Ms. Karen Thomas Environment Agency ESG Ms Julia Masson Broads Authority ESG Mr. John Hiskett Norfolk Wildlife Trust ESG Mr John Sizer National Trust ESG Ian Dodson Environment Agency ESG Mr. Ian Loughran Phillips Petroleum ESG Helen Deavin Royal Society for the Protection of ESG Birds Ms. Heidi Mahon Norfolk County Council ESG Ms Dorothy Casey Suffolk Wildlife Trust ESG Cllr D Corbett Bacton Division ESG Cllr B J Hannah Sheringham Division ESG Mr Tim Venes Norfolk Coast Project ESG Mr Adam Nicholls Suffolk County Council ESG Cllr Tony Overill Caister-on-Sea Parish Council ESG Mrs B Buxton ESG Mrs S.Weymouth ESG Mr. Patrick McNamara Gt Yarmouth Port Authority CG Mr. Peter Frew North Norfolk District Council CG Mr Peter Lambley English Nature - Norfolk CG Mr. Julian Walker Waveney District Council CG Mr. Gary Watson North Norfolk District Council CG Mr Guy Cooper Environment Agency CG Mr. Gary Alexander North Norfolk District Council CG Mr David Wilson Defra CG Mr. Bernard Harris Gt Yarmouth Borough Council CG Source: Provided by Kevin Burges at Halcrow.

Section 1: Introduction 3 2. Definition of objectives and management options

The aim of the SMP is ‘to promote sustainable management policies, for a coastline for the 22nd century, which achieve objectives without committing to unsustainable defences’. Further issues and objectives have been defined by the ESG. Four overarching objectives have also been developed to ensure that the policy along the coast will be set within existing legislation and other constraints in addition to those identified during consultation. These objectives are:

• Framework objective: shoreline management policies should comply with the current flood and coastal defence management framework where public funding would be required for their implementation; • Technical objective: shoreline management policies should seek to have no adverse effect on any physical processes that benefits rely upon; • Environmental objective: shoreline management policies should take due consideration of biodiversity and seek to achieve Biodiversity Action Plan targets; and • Socio-economic objective: shoreline management policies should consider current regional development agency objectives and statutory planning policies.

The assessment of options for the case study against these objectives is based upon the usual options appraised in an SMP. These options are:

• ‘do-nothing’; • managed realignment; • hold the line; and • advance the line.

For the three assessment units appraised in the case study, the advance the line option was not considered as it was either not technically feasible or would be prohibitively expensive.

4 Section 2: Definition of objectives and management options 3. Structuring the problem

This section intends to break down the problem into its component parts, identifying the set of impacts and associated criteria that will be used to make a decision. In other words carries out a screening exercise for the Cromer, Winterton and Trimingham assessment units of the Kelling Hard to Lowestoft Ness SMP.

3.1 Summary of the screening exercise

This screening exercise is used to determine (i) which categories are relevant and (ii) which categories will be appraised by assigning a monetary value to impacts and which will be appraised by assigning a score to the impacts. Relevant categories are those where there is a difference in the impacts of the three options being appraised (‘do-nothing’, managed realignment and hold the line).

The screening exercise for the SMP case study was based on the following sources of information:

• William Halcrow & Partners (1995): Sheringham to Lowestoft Shoreline Management Plan Sediment Sub-Cell 3B, Phase 1, May 1995 (including maps); • William Halcrow & Partners (1996): Sheringham to Lowestoft Shoreline Management Plan Sediment Sub-Cell 3B, Phase 2, May 1996; and • Halcrow Group Limited (2003): Kelling Hard to Lowestoft Ness Shoreline Management Plan – Extended Steering Group Policy Development Workshop, November 2003.

The high level screening exercise highlighted the fact that the majority of the more significant impacts of the options for the SMP are related to economic assets such as housing and commercial premises; agricultural land; and to recreation and tourism activities in the area, such as the beach and the landscape in general. Environmental issues are also important, particularly for Winterton and Trimingham.

It also becomes clear that the majority of impact categories will be assessed through scoring. Assets, historical environment and recreation, however, will be assigned monetary values for Cromer; assets and recreation will be valued in monetary terms for Trimingham; and no categories will be valued for Winterton. The number of categories considered as part of the appraisal for Winterton is reduced considerably by screening, since only impacts on assets, physical habitats and policy integration are relevant and/or significantly different between the options.

Section 3: Structuring the problem 5 Table 3.1: Table summarising the results of the screening exercise Project Name Kelling Hard to Lowestoft Ness SMP

Cromer Winterton Trimingham

Category value value value Score Score Score Monetary Monetary Monetary

Economic impacts

Assets ✓✓✓

Land use ✓ Not relevant ✓

Transport ✓ Not relevant ✓

Business development ✓ Not relevant ✓

Environmental impacts

Physical habitats ✓✓✓

Water quality Not relevant Not relevant Not relevant

Water quantity Not relevant Not relevant Not relevant

Natural processes Not relevant Not relevant ✓

Historical Environment ✓ Not relevant Not relevant

No significant Landscape and visual ✓ differences between ✓ amenity the options

Social impacts

No significant Recreation ✓ differences between ✓ the options

Health and safety ✓ Not relevant ✓

Availability and ✓ Not relevant ✓ accessibility of services

Equity ✓ Not relevant ✓

Sense of community ✓ Not relevant ✓

Cross-cutting impacts

Policy Integration ✓✓✓

6 Section 3: Structuring the problem 4. Cost of options

For all three frontages, the ‘do-nothing’ option has zero (£0) costs. The costs of the other options were provided, by personal communication, by the Consultants in charge of the SMP project. The case study does not correspond exactly to the original project as only three of the 32 assessment units have been included in the MCA appraisal, hence the costs provided by the Consultants had to be adjusted to take into account the differences. In essence, the adjustments relate to:

• the need to cost additional options that were not considered by the original project, for example management realignment, which was considered to be 75% of the cost of the hold the line option; and • the need to take into account of the difference in the number of assessment units appraised. For example, the original costs for the Cromer assessment unit were divided by three, since the Cromer frontage used in the case study represented one of three frontages included in the original assessment unit.

The costs used in the case study appraisal are illustrated in Table 4.1. They represent present value costs over 100 years.

Table 4.1: Summary of costs of options used in the case study appraisal Options costs (£k) ‘do-nothing’ Managed Hold the line realignment Cromer 0 3,000 4,000 Trimingham 0 6,000 8,000 Winterton 0 1,500 6,000

Section 4: Cost of options 7 5. Assessment of impacts

5.1. Qualitative and quantitative assessment

The qualitative and quantitative assessment of the different options for each of the management units was carried out using the Appraisal Summary Table for the Main Assessment (MA-AST) and it is presented in Appendices B1.2 to B1.4 to this Annex.

The assessment followed a stepped approach, starting with the qualitative assessment of all impact categories and moving to the quantitative assessment whenever information was available.

5.2 Monetary valuation of impacts

5.2.1 Assets

Damages to assets (primarily residential and non-residential properties) under the ‘do-nothing’ option have been estimated for Cromer and Trimingham (note, these damages are often assumed to be the same for the managed realignment option). No assets were directly affected by erosion for Winterton.

Cromer

All damages to assets will occur because of erosion. Over the 100-year time horizon a total of 40 residential properties, 30 commercial/tourist properties, 1km of promenade, 1 lifeboat station, and one pier will be lost as a result of erosion. Only damages due to loss of residential properties, commercial/tourist properties and the lifeboat station are considered under the category of assets.

The total value of the residential properties is estimated using information on the average house price in ‘NR27 9’ from the Land Registry Internet site, of £128,000 (October-December 2003). The total value of properties affected by erosion is £5.1 million (£128 000 x 40).

The total value of commercial/tourist properties is estimated using data from the Valuation Agency Office Internet Site. This provides information on the rateable value of commercial premises in the ‘NR27 9’ postcode sector. The average rateable value is £20,000 per year. This allows an estimate of property value of £200,000 to be made (from 10x the rateable value). Thus, the total value of commercial/tourist properties affected by erosion is £6.0 million (£200,000 x 30).

The value of the lifeboat station is taken as £200,000 as no information on the rateable value or property value was available.

The timing of losses differs according to the location of the property. It is assumed that erosion of properties (both residential and commercial/tourist)

8 Section 5: Assessment of impacts begins in year 20 and continues to year 99. For the purposes of the economic appraisal, it has been assumed that 1/80th of the total value of the assets is lost each year. This means that the damages incurred each year (before discounting) are the same. Thus, in year 99, all properties affected by erosion in the 100-year time horizon will have been lost.

Trimingham

Damages to assets for Trimingham are also caused by erosion. Over the 100- year time horizon, seven residential properties, two caravans, 7ha of agricultural land and one agricultural reservoir would be lost.

The average price of detached properties in the ‘NR11 8’ postcode sector is given as £220,000 on the Land Registry Internet site (for October-December 2003). Each of the seven properties is located at a different distance from the coast such that the time when each property will be eroded is not the same. The year when a property would be lost has been calculated as the time taken for erosion to reach the boundary of the property (measured from the maps given in William Halcrow & Partners, 1995). The properties are assumed to be lost in: • one property eroded in year 36; • one property eroded in year 42; • one property eroded in year 48; • one property eroded in year 71; • one property eroded in year 83; and • two properties eroded in year 89.

The value of the caravan parks is based on the rateable value multiplied by 10. The average rateable value is taken as £60,000 per year (from information on the Valuation Agency Office Internet site), giving a total value of £600,000 per caravan park. The timing when each park would be lost is taken as the time when half of the site would be lost. This occurs in year 30 for the caravan park near Vale Road and year 60 for the caravan park near the SSSI.

Agricultural land is assumed to be lost when more than half of the land is eroded. The value of the agricultural land is assumed to be Grade 3 and is taken as £7,203 per ha (from Nix, 2002). This is multiplied by 0.45 to remove the effect of subsidies, to give £3,241 per ha. The time when the individual fields would be considered ‘lost’ varies from year 48 to year 77, with the majority of land lost in year 65 (0.6 ha lost in year 48, 5.7ha lost in year 65 and 0.7ha lost in year 77).

5.2.2 Historical environment

Impacts on the historical environment have only been assigned a monetary value for Cromer. There are no known significant impacts on the historical environment for Trimingham and Winterton.

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 9 The area of Cromer that would be eroded under the ‘do-nothing’ option contains five Grade II listed buildings that would be eroded. It is also assumed that they would be eroded under managed realignment. No monetary values are available on the heritage aspect of these buildings, hence, it is assumed that their value is twice that of the commercial property value, i.e. £400,000. The time at which each Grade II listed building would be lost varies throughout the 100-year time horizon and one building is assumed to be lost every 20 years (i.e. years 20, 40, 60, 80 and 99).

5.2.3 Recreation

Monetary values have been placed on impacts on recreation for both Cromer and Trimingham. No significant difference between the options is expected for Winterton.

Cromer

Erosion of the promenade would result in the loss of access to the beach from the town. The loss of visitor attractions, such as the pier and commercial/tourist properties in the town itself would also result in a loss of tourists. It is estimated that 100,000 visits per year are made to Cromer beach/promenade each year and that these would be lost over time as erosion of the promenade and other attractions occurs. The average value of a trip to Cromer is estimated at £3.59 (from a value given in the Multi-Coloured Manual for the deterioration in the beach and promenade (Middlesex University Flood Hazard Research Centre (MUFHRC), 2003). The maximum losses in any one, year can therefore be estimated at £359,000.

Erosion of the promenade is expected to begin in year 20 and the total length of the promenade, access to the beach and other tourist facilities (including the pier) will be lost by year 49. Between year 20 and 48, the proportion of visits to Cromer affected increases by 3% per year (or 3,000 visits per year) from 3% (or 3,000) in year 20 to 97% (or 97,000) in year 48. From year 49 onwards, 100,000 visits are lost every year.

Trimingham

Access to the beach via Vale Road is the only access point for 6km south of Overstrand. Loss of access would, therefore, result in a significant decrease in the number of beach visits, as there are no alternative access points for a considerable distance. It is estimated that 30,000 visits per year are made to the beach at Trimingham (based on beach visitor data given in Environment Agency, 2003). These trips would be lost once access to the beach is lost. This is expected to occur in year 20, after which time no further recreation could occur along the beach. The value per trip is taken as £1.89 (from a value given in the Multi-Coloured Manual (MUFHRC, 2003) for cliff erosion, deterioration in beach and seawall, much reduced access to and along the beach and seawall). The maximum (undiscounted) loss that would occur in any one year can therefore be estimated at £56,700 per year.

10 Section 5: Assessment of impacts 5.3 Scoring of impacts

The approach to assigning scores to the categories varied according to the assessment unit being appraised and the type of (quantitative) information that was available upon which to base the scores. Furthermore, the SMP case study was used to test four different scoring systems. This case study report provides the scores that were assigned when a relative scoring system across the units was used. More information on the other scoring systems that were trialled, with their relative advantages and disadvantages can be found in the main report (Section 6). A summary of the scores assigned and the justification behind them for all three assessment units is provided in Table 5.1.

Table 5.1: Table summarising scores and monetary estimates Kelling Hard to Lowestoft Ness SMP: CROMER, WINTERTON and TRIMINGHAM Project Name assessment units Cromer Winterton Trimingham

Category Justification for scores ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line

Economic impacts

Assets See Section 4.1.1 Neg. Neg. Neg. £2.0m £2.0m £0.5m £0.2m £0.07m £0.02m

Reflects the degree of land use change that would occur, where there would be a total land use changes under ‘do-nothing’ and managed realignment and no change in land use under hold the line for Cromer. Hold the line for Trimingham would also result in no change in land use, hence, both Land use 0 0 100 - - - 0 33 100 hold the line options are assigned a score of 100. Both ‘do-nothing’ options would result in a total change of land use and are scored 0. Managed realignment for Trimingham would result in a change in 2 (out of 3) land use types, hence, a score of 33 is assigned (to reflect the two-thirds of land uses that would change). Cromer would result in the maximum length of roads lost (0.75km) under ‘do-nothing’ and managed realignment. Under hold the line, no roads would be lost. For Transport 0 0 100 - - - 40 40 100 Trimingham, 0.3km of road would be lost, such that ‘do-nothing’ and management realignment are assigned a score of 40 (from 0.3 ÷ 0.75). Hold the line would protect all roads for both units, hence, is

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 11 Table 5.1: Table summarising scores and monetary estimates Kelling Hard to Lowestoft Ness SMP: CROMER, WINTERTON and TRIMINGHAM Project Name assessment units Cromer Winterton Trimingham

Category Justification for scores ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line assigned a score of 100. Cromer would lose the greatest area of commercial properties (25%) and, hence, income from tourism under ‘do-nothing’ and managed realignment, while hold the line would protect the whole area such that business development would not be affected. There are only 30,000 visits to Trimingham each year (compared with 100,000 to Cromer). Therefore, business development from the loss of 30,000 visits to Trimingham will be less than the impacts on business development from the loss of Business 100,000 visits to Cromer. To ensure 0 0 100 - - - 12 23 30 development relativity between the assessment units, Trimingham can only achieve a score of 30 (to reflect that it only attracts 30% of the visitors to Cromer). Under ‘do-nothing’ for Trimingham, 50% of tourist visits would be lost, which when assigned a multiplier of 1.2 would result in 60% of income/investment being lost such that a score of 12 is assigned to ‘do-nothing’. Under managed realignment, caravan parks would be moved such that a smaller proportion of income from tourism would be lost (20%), giving a score of 23. Environmental impacts Cromer would see the loss of one County Wildlife Site under ‘do- nothing’ and managed realignment. Hold the line would protect the existing environment for Cromer. Erosion of the frontage is required to maintain the quality of environmental sites for Winterton and Trimingham Physical 0 0 100 100 100 80 100 100 20 such that hold the line scores 80 for habitats Winterton (where only minimal intervention would be undertaken) and 20 for Trimingham (where Hold the Line would result in a gradual loss of environmental value over time). The existing environmental habitats and conservation value would be maintained under ‘do-

12 Section 5: Assessment of impacts Table 5.1: Table summarising scores and monetary estimates Kelling Hard to Lowestoft Ness SMP: CROMER, WINTERTON and TRIMINGHAM Project Name assessment units Cromer Winterton Trimingham

Category Justification for scores ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line nothing’ and managed realignment for Winterton and Trimingham, such that these options also score 100. Category not relevant for the Water quality ------assessment units Water Category not relevant for the ------quantity assessment units Only Trimingham would see a difference in the options for natural processes. This is because erosion would be minimised under hold the Natural line, but would continue under both ------100 100 0 processes ‘do-nothing’ and managed realignment. For Winterton, hold the line would involve only minimal intervention which would not affect erosion under any of the options.

Historical ------See Section 4.1.2 Environment £0.4m £0.4m £0.01m Cromer would see the loss of part of the town, listed buildings within it, and the beach and promenade, hence, a change to the townscape under ‘do-nothing’ and managed realignment. Hold the line would protect the townscape. For Trimingham, it is the ‘do-nothing’ option that would improve the naturalness of the landscape. It is not possible to directly compare the townscape of Cromer with the natural landscape of Trimingham, hence, the ‘best’ options for both Landscape assessment units have been scored and visual 0 0 100 - - - 100 50 60 100. amenity Under managed realignment for Trimingham, caravans would be relocated to agricultural land, affecting the AONB. Under hold the line, the caravans would remain in their current position. The scores assigned are based on the NERA Landscape Index (in Environment Agency, 2003) where managed realignment is assumed to result in an ‘undistinguished’ landscape (with an reduction factor of 50%) and hold the line in a ‘slight intrusion’ (with a reduction factor of 40%).

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 13 Table 5.1: Table summarising scores and monetary estimates Kelling Hard to Lowestoft Ness SMP: CROMER, WINTERTON and TRIMINGHAM Project Name assessment units Cromer Winterton Trimingham

Category Justification for scores ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line

Social impacts

Recreation - - - See Section 4.1.3 £3.0m £3.0m £0.1m £0.8m £0.8m £0.03m Under ‘do-nothing’ and managed realignment for Cromer the lifeboat station would be lost. ‘Do-nothing’ would also result in erosion of the promenade making access to the beach very dangerous. Warning signs and barriers would be put in place under managed realignment, such that safety would only be affected by loss of the lifeboat station (i.e. assumed to be half as safe as hold the line which protects both the lifeboat station and beach access). For Trimingham, the potential Health and impacts are less severe since only 0 50 100 - - - 0 30 30 safety 30% of the visitors go to Trimingham compared with Cromer. This means that the maximum score for Trimingham is 30. Under ‘do- nothing’, beach access would be lost and defences would deteriorate to a dangerous condition. It is not possible to compare these hazards with the result of the loss of the lifeboat station, hence, ‘do-nothing’ scores 0. Managed realignment and hold the line would avoid safety concerns by the use of warnings/barriers or by protecting/maintaining the access and defences, respectively.

14 Section 5: Assessment of impacts Table 5.1: Table summarising scores and monetary estimates Kelling Hard to Lowestoft Ness SMP: CROMER, WINTERTON and TRIMINGHAM Project Name assessment units Cromer Winterton Trimingham

Category Justification for scores ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line For Cromer, the ‘do-nothing’ and managed realignment options would result in loss of many services and infrastructure currently provided by the town (including recreational services for local people). Hold the line would protect all of these services. Availability As Trimingham attracts only 30% of and visitors compared with Cromer, the 0 0 100 - - - 15 24 30 accessibility maximum score it can attain is 30. of services Loss of tourist facilities may also affect local residents (particularly where shops are lost), such that ‘do- nothing’, which would reduce visitor numbers by 50% is assigned a score of 15. Managed realignment would allow some facilities to be moved but 20% of visitors would still be lost giving a score of 24. For Cromer, loss of tourism under the ‘do-nothing’ and managed realignment options would affect local people through a loss of jobs. This is likely to increase deprivation. Hold the line would protect tourism and income from tourism and would avoid the knock-on impacts on deprivation of those groups relying Equity 0 0 100 - - - 15 24 30 on this area for employment. As for availability and accessibility of services, the loss of visits to Trimingham is limited to 30% of those at Cromer such that the maximum score is 30. The loss of income would result in loss of jobs and, hence, increase deprivation in those groups whose income is reliant on tourism.

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 15 Table 5.1: Table summarising scores and monetary estimates Kelling Hard to Lowestoft Ness SMP: CROMER, WINTERTON and TRIMINGHAM Project Name assessment units Cromer Winterton Trimingham

Category Justification for scores ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line Under ‘do-nothing’ and managed realignment for Cromer, houses, commercial properties and jobs would all be lost. These will all affect sense of community in the area, with many people having to be relocated out of the area. Hold the line would protect these people and, hence, avoid impacting upon sense of community. Trimingham would only result in a much smaller loss in terms on number of properties, but this is a larger percentage of the properties within the area. Thus, the maximum Sense of 0 0 100 - - - 20 35 50 score assigned to Trimingham (50) community is related to the proportion of total households that would be affected by the various options. Hold the line would result in no impacts on sense of community and scores 50. ‘Do- nothing’ would have significant impact on numbers of visitors, beach access and would also result in erosion of some properties. This options scores 20. Managed realignment would allow more visits to continue, although beach access may be affected and properties would be eroded. This option score 35.

16 Section 5: Assessment of impacts Table 5.1: Table summarising scores and monetary estimates Kelling Hard to Lowestoft Ness SMP: CROMER, WINTERTON and TRIMINGHAM Project Name assessment units Cromer Winterton Trimingham

Category Justification for scores ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line ‘do-nothing’ Managed realignment Hold the line

Cross-cutting impacts For Cromer, ‘do-nothing’ and managed realignment will be contrary to local planning, local authority, economy, tourism, etc. policies. Hold the line will be concordant with almost all policies. For Winterton, it is ‘do-nothing’ and managed realignment that are most in line with the policies relevant to that assessment unit. Hold the line would involve only minimal intervention, such that it is assigned Policy a score of 90. 0 0 100 100100 90 20 90 80 integration For Trimingham, hold the line is concordant with most policies, but would prevent erosion and result in a reduction in environmental quality such that it is against the requirements of environmental policy of a sustainable, natural unit. ‘Do- nothing’ is against almost all policies except the environment and scores 20. Managed realignment is in line with environmental policies but is somewhat discordant with tourism and economic policies for the area. Notes and key: Neg. = negligible (relates to monetised estimates of impacts) - = not relevant (relates to those categories which are not present in the assessment unit or where there are no significant differences between the options)

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 17 6. Weighting and comparison of options

6.1 Source of weights

In all cases, the Constrained Random Weight Generator (CRWG) was used to calculate minimum, maximum and average total weighted scores and total weighted incremental scores for the options under consideration. These, along with interpretation, are provided in the summary tables for each management unit.

6.2 Comparison of options

6.2.1 Cromer

Table 7.1 provides a summary table of monetary costs and benefits and scores for the Cromer Management Unit.

As can be seen from the table, ‘Hold the Line’ is the option with the highest benefit-cost ratio with a benefit-cost ratio of 1.28. The option also has an incremental benefit-cost ratio of 5.12, which far exceeds the necessary criterion of robustly greater than 1 (i.e. 1.5). As such, no additional benefit is required to meet the incremental benefit-cost criterion of 1.5.

In terms of intangible benefits, ‘Hold the Line’ scores 100 for all criteria and thus will score 100 regardless of the weights. The CRWG was used to calculate intangible benefits incremental to the Managed re-alignment option. These are all positive (ranging between 86.5 and 99.3). It can be concluded, therefore, that as there are no intangible incremental dis-benefits that could act to reduce the incremental monetary benefit-cost ratio of 5.12, ‘hold the line’ is the preferred option.

18 Section 6: Weighting and comparison of options 6.1: Summary table of costs and benefits – Cromer Option 2: Option 1: Managed re- Option 3: Hold the Line ‘do-nothing’ alignment PV costs from estimates 2,500 Optimism bias adjustment 1,500 Total PV Costs for appraisal 3,000,000 4,000,000 PVc PV damage PVd PV damage avoided - - PV assets Pva 5,287,595 PV asset protection benefits - 5,118,074 Total PV benefits PVb 0 5,118,074 Net Present Value NPV -3,000,000 1,118,074 Average benefit/cost ratio 0 1.28 Incremental benefit/cost ratio 0 5.12 Required Incremental B/C ratio 1.52 Required Additional Benefits 0 None to Meet Criterion Min Ave Max Weighted Score (CRWG) 100.0 100.0 100.0 Scored Intangible Incremental Benefit of Moving to the Next 86.5 96.8 99.3 Option (CRWG) Justified Justified Justified without without without Comments N/A N/A Extra Extra Extra benefit benefit benefit Implied Additional Benefits per N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Point (k) to meet criterion

6.2.2 Winterton

Table 6.2 provides a summary table of monetary costs and benefits and scores for the Winterton Management Unit.

As can be seen from the table, ‘Hold the Line’ has an incremental benefit-cost ratio of 0. As such, to meet the incremental benefit-cost criterion of 1.5 it would require £2,250,000 of additional (intangible) incremental benefit.

As the option below (Managed re-alignment) scores 100 on all criteria in the scoring system (and thus 100 overall) and Hold the Line does not, there are, obviously, no incremental intangible benefits from moving to the Hold the Line Option. As there are no intangible incremental benefits from moving to the option, there is no potential to acquire the addition £2,250,000 of intangible

2 The required incremental benefit-cost ratio is assumed to be 1.5 since Option 2 (maintain) would only provide a 1 in 5 year standard of defence at the end of the 100 year time period, which is below the indicative standard of 1:10 to 1:100 for Land Use Band C. Option 3 (sustain) provides a standard of defence of 1:20, thus Options 4 and 5 require an incremental benefit-cost ratio greater than 3 to become the preferred option.

Section 6: Weighting and comparison of options 19 benefit to reach the 1.5 criterion. It can be concluded that Hold the Line cannot be justified over managed re-alignment.

6.2: Summary table of costs and benefits – Winterton Option 2: Option 1: Managed Option 3: Hold the Line ‘do-nothing’ Realignment PV costs from estimates Optimism bias adjustment Total PV Costs for appraisal 6,000,000 1,500,000 PVc PV damage PVd PV damage avoided PV assets Pva PV asset protection benefits Total PV benefits PVb 0 0 Net Present Value NPV Average benefit/cost ratio 0 0 Incremental benefit/cost 0 0.0 ratio Required Incremental B/C 1.53 ratio Required Additional Benefits 2,250,000 to Meet Criterion Min Ave Max Weighted Score (CRWG) 82.0 84.9 88.0 Scored Intangible Incremental Benefit of -18.0 -15.1 -12.0 Moving to the Next Option (CRWG) Not Not Not Comments N/A N/A Justified Justified Justified

Implied Additional Benefits per Point (k) to meet N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A criterion

6.2.3 Trimmingham

Table 6.3 provides a summary table of monetary costs and benefits and scores for the Trimmingham management unit.

As can be seen from the table, ‘Hold the Line’ has an incremental benefit-cost ratio of 3.2, which exceeds the criterion of robustly greater than 1 (i.e. 1.5) that would be required for the option to be preferred. As such, there is no additional benefit required to meet the incremental benefit-cost criterion of 1.5.

3 The required incremental benefit-cost ratio is assumed to be 1.5 since Option 2 (maintain) would only provide a 1 in 5 year standard of defence at the end of the 100 year time period, which is below the indicative standard of 1:10 to 1:100 for Land Use Band C. Option 3 (sustain) provides a standard of defence of 1:20, thus Options 4 and 5 require an incremental benefit-cost ratio greater than 3 to become the preferred option.

20 Section 6: Weighting and comparison of options However, analysis with the CRWG suggests that, depending on the weights used, resulting total weighted scores indicate that there may be intangible dis- benefits from the ‘Hold the Line’ option.

In such circumstances the decision rules dictate that one should examine the margin between the monetary benefit-cost ratio and the criterion to make sure that the magnitude of intangible incremental dis-benefit is not large enough to reduce the overall benefits side of the equation to one that is below the criterion.

In this case, from the table it can be seen that an intangible dis-benefit with a value greater than around £512,000 would reduce the incremental-benefit cost ratio from 3.2 to one that is below the 1.5 criterion. The next question to consider is whether or not this is likely.

This, in turn, requires consideration of the actual likely magnitude of the incremental dis-benefit, and what this would imply the value of a point on the index (k) would have to be to change the conclusion from one of ‘justified’ to one of ‘not justified’ (and therein the total value of the assets being considered in the scoring index as a whole).

In this case, using a worst-case scenario of the lower bound estimate (-19.8), this would imply that the value of a point on the index (k in pounds) would have to be around £26,000 (-512,000/-19.8) to make a difference to the outcome of the decision. This would imply that the total value of the intangible assets being considered in the 100 point scoring system as whole would have to total around £2,600,000 to change the decision even if the lowest possible estimate were used. As this is equivalent to more than twice the asset protection benefits of £1,251,898 that have been valued in monetary terms, it could be concluded that this is an unreasonably high estimate of the value of intangible assets, and thus, even using a worst case estimate of intangible incremental dis-benefit, the ‘Hold the Line’ option is still likely to be justified.

The analysis could probably stop here with the conclusion that the ‘Hold the Line’ option is justified. However, if greater certainty were required, the analysis could continue by examining what the magnitude of incremental intangible benefits/dis-benefits is more likely to be (as opposed to the worst case scenario).

As noted previously, the upper bound estimate of intangible incremental benefits is 24.0, and here no additional benefit would be required for the option to be justified. The mid bound value from the CRWG lies around -3.3 and the lower bound estimate that has already been considered lies at around -19.8. Thus, the actual level of incremental intangible benefits lies somewhere between -19.8 and 24.0.

Examination of trends and relationships in the weights responsible for the lower range estimate reveals that these are the result of environmental impacts being weighted much more highly than economic impacts (and, on average the

Section 6: Weighting and comparison of options 21 weights for environmental impacts are twice as high as those for economic impacts).

Similarly, the upper range estimate is the result of the opposite, i.e. economic impacts are weighted much more highly than environmental impacts (and, on average the weights for economic impact are three times as high as those for environmental impacts).

Table 6.3: Summary table of costs and benefits – Trimmingham Option 2: Option 1: managed Option 3: hold the line ‘do-nothing’ realignment PV costs from estimates Optimism bias adjustment Total PV costs for appraisal 1,000,000 1,300,000 PVc PV damage PVd PV damage avoided - - PV assets Pva 5,287,595 1,003,436 41,465 PV asset protection benefits 289,928 1,251,898 Total PV benefits PVb 289,928 1,251,898 Net present value NPV -5,710,072 -6,748,102 Average benefit/cost ratio 0.290 0.96 Incremental benefit/cost 3.207 ratio Required incremental B/C 1.54 ratio Required additional benefits -£511,970 to meet criterion Min Ave Max Weighted score (CRWG) 39.9 55.1 71.9 Scored intangible incremental benefit of -19.8 -3.3 24.0 moving to the next option (CRWG) Justified Justified as long as long Justified as k per as k per without Comments N/A N/A point no point no Extra greater greater benefit than than Implied additional benefits £156,44 per Point (k) to meet N/A N/A £25,836 - 8 criterion

Because of the large differences between the sets of weights in each case, it can probably be concluded that the actual incremental benefits lie at neither

4 The required incremental benefit-cost ratio is assumed to be 1.5 since Option 2 (maintain) would only provide a 1 in 5 year standard of defence at the end of the 100-year time period, which is below the indicative standard of 1:10 to 1:100 for Land Use Band C. Option 3 (sustain) provides a standard of defence of 1:20, thus Options 4 and 5 require an incremental benefit-cost ratio greater than 3 to become the preferred option.

22 Section 6: Weighting and comparison of options extremity of the range and is closer to the mid range estimate (which is typified by no trend in the data). This, combined with the conclusions on the worst-case scenario may provide sufficient additional certainty that the option is justified.

If further certainty were required, the next step would be to determine which side of the mid bound estimate the actual value is likely to lie. To determine this one would begin by deciding which is more important: environmental impacts or economic impacts (and preferably by how much). If necessary, then, the appraisal could proceed towards eliciting stakeholder views on the issue. It is important to note however, that, stakeholders’ views are likely to differ and, unless one takes the average, one is still left with a range of possibilities.

For the Trimmingham case study, some elicitation of weights was conducted. From these were derived the weight apportioned to economic impacts versus environmental impacts in the responses, and the average over all responses. These data are provided in Figure 6.1. As can be seen from the figure, there is a range of views concerning the relative importance of each and the average places economic impacts as being very slightly more important than environmental impacts (51% versus 49% respectively). This would suggest that the incremental benefits/dis-benefits of the Hold the line Option would lie towards the middle of the range, representing a few points on the scoring index either side of zero.

Variation in Stakeholder Views

Ave J I H G F E D C B A

0% 50% 100% Re lative We ight (%)

Ec onomic Impacts Env ir onmental Impacts

Figure 6.1: Variation in Stakeholder views

Section 6: Weighting and comparison of options 23 7. References

Environment Agency (2003): Assessment of Benefits for Water Quality and Water Resources Schemes in the PR04 Environment Programme, Guidance prepared by RPA, February 2003.

Halcrow Group Limited (2003): Kelling Hard to Lowestoft Ness Shoreline Management Plan – Extended Steering Group Policy Development Workshop, November 2003.

Land Registry Internet Site: http://www.landreg.gov.uk/ppr/interactive/ppr_ualbs.asp.

Middlesex University Flood Hazard Research Centre (MUFHRC) (2003): The Benefits of Flood and Coastal Defence: Techniques and Data for 2003 (Multi- Coloured Manual), draft.

Nix J (2003): Farm Management Pocketbook, 34th Edition (2004), Imperial College at Wye, September 2003.

Valuation Agency Office Internet Site: http://open.voa.gov.uk/rating/irlw_2000.list.

William Halcrow & Partners (1995): Sheringham to Lowestoft Shoreline Management Plan Sediment Sub-Cell 3B, Phase 1, May 1995 (including maps).

William Halcrow & Partners (1996): Sheringham to Lowestoft Shoreline Management Plan Sediment Sub-Cell 3B, Phase 2, May 1996.

24 Section 6: Weighting and comparison of options Appendix B1.1

Appraisal summary table for high level screening – S-AST for the Kelling Hard to Lowestoft SMP – Cromer, Trimingham and Winterton Frontages

Appendix B1.1 25 Table B1.1.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – high level screening Cromer (Run 3 of Management Area ‘RUN’) from Cromer, Bernard Road Project name to Cromer Coastguard Lookout

Assumptions The high level screening will correspond to the ‘do-nothing’ option

Impact category Impact Impact details Qualitative or Monetary likely? quantitative valuation (Y/N) assessment

Economic Impacts

Assets Y • loss of residential and commercial properties from 20 years onwards. ܂

• loss of infrastructure associated with properties.

• loss of tourist facilities along the sea front.

• loss of Victorian seawall.

• loss of life boat station after 20 years and pier after 50 years.

Land use Y • change from residential and ܂ commercial land use to abandoned areas with derelict/ damaged properties.

Transport Y • loss of some local roads, plus part of ܂ A149.

Business Y • loss of tourist facilities is likely to have ܂ development knock-on impacts on economy on town (which relies largely on tourism) such that business development is also likely to be reduced.

Environmental impacts

natural environmental features are Physical habitats Y • reliant on presently defended line ܂ remaining stable such that erosion of cliffs would result in loss of vegetated cliff face, which is a County Wildlife Site.

Water quality N

Water quantity N

26 Appendix B1.1 Table B1.1.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – high level screening Cromer (Run 3 of Management Area ‘RUN’) from Cromer, Bernard Road Project name to Cromer Coastguard Lookout

Assumptions The high level screening will correspond to the ‘do-nothing’ option

Impact category Impact Impact details Qualitative or Monetary likely? quantitative valuation (Y/N) assessment

Natural processes N

after 20 years, there will be (gradual) Historical Y • loss of Grade II listed buildings, the ܂ environment church and other important monuments. loss of historic buildings, loss of Landscape and Y • promenade will alter the visual amenity ܂ visual amenity of the town. The beach is also likely to retreat changing the coastal landscape.

Social impacts

loss of promenade (between 20 and 50 Recreation Y • years); ܂ • loss of pier after 50 years; • loss of access to beach as promenade is lost.

Health and safety Y • gradual loss of promenade is likely to make beach access more dangerous. ܂ • loss of lifeboat station may affect lifesaving actions to sea, while loss of pier may affect nearshore craft. loss of many commercial properties and Availability and Y • infrastructure is likely to affect services ܂ accessibility of within the town. services

loss of tourism will reduce number of Equity Y • jobs available locally and is likely to ܂ increase deprivation. loss of tourism based jobs and properties Sense of Y • are likely to result in people having to ܂ community move out of the local area. The cost of housing nearby is very high such that the existing community is likely to be widely dispersed.

Cross-cutting impacts

potential for a move to a more naturally Policy Integration Y • functioning coastline but at the expense ܂ of local planning.

Appendix B1.1 27 Table B1.1.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – high level screening Trimingham (TRI5) from Trimingham, Beacon Hill to Mundesley, Seaview Project name Road.

Assumptions The high level screening will correspond to the ‘do-nothing’ option

Impact Qualitative or Monetary Impact category likely? Impact details quantitative valuation (Y/N) assessment

Economic impacts

potential loss of caravan parks and Assets • isolated properties in Vale Road, Y Mundesley. Agricultural land would also ܂ be lost. change in land use from Land use • Y recreational/residential/agricultural to ܂ coastline. small lengths of local roads lost, plus Transport • Y erosion of coastline may threaten B1159 ܂ after 100 years. loss of caravan parks is likely to affect Business • tourism in the area, although there are development Y many other sites further back from the ܂ defences.

Environmental impacts

Sidestrand and Trimingham Cliffs SSSI Physical habitats • continues through this area and part of Mundesley Cliffs CWS. ‘Do-nothing’ Y would allow for continuance of erosion ܂ which is important for the maintenance of the environmental interests.

Water quality N

Water quantity N

continued erosion will provide sediment Natural processes • that will be moved off-site due to the high on-offshore energy component. This will N provide sediment supply to adjacent areas (although there is also the possibility of outflanking of defences).

Historical Y environment ܂

change is landscape as cliffs erode back Landscape and • Y replacing caravan parks, agricultural land visual amenity ܂ and some residential properties.

28 Appendix B1.1 Table B1.1.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – high level screening Trimingham (TRI5) from Trimingham, Beacon Hill to Mundesley, Seaview Project name Road.

Assumptions The high level screening will correspond to the ‘do-nothing’ option

Impact Qualitative or Monetary Impact category likely? Impact details quantitative valuation (Y/N) assessment

Social impacts

• Vale Road is the main access point to the beach, and the only access for 6km Recreation Y south of Overstrand. Loss of this access ✓ point would result in a loss of beach- based recreation in this area.

• potential health and safety issues if access to the beach is lost and no warnings/barriers are put in place. The Health and safety Y ✓ current defences are also in poor condition and may represent a safety hazard. loss of tourist facilities may have knock- Availability and • on impacts on local shops, businesses, accessibility of Y ✓ etc. that may result in loss of services for services local people (and for visitors to the area).

• loss of facilities, both for tourists and locals, is likely to result in local job losses and may increase deprivation in an area that relies on income from tourism. Loss Equity Y ✓ of beach access would also affect recreation in the area (again for visitors and locals) and would reduce the quality of life. loss of businesses, employment and Sense of • Y some properties is likely to reduce the ✓ community sense of community.

Cross-cutting impacts

• the coastline would move to a more natural state and would provide sediment Policy Integration Y ✓ for adjacent units. Tourism (and the economy) would be impacted.

Appendix B1.1 29 Table B1.1.3: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – high level screening Winterton (Management Unit WIN 2) from Winterton, Beach Road to Project name Hemsby, Long Beach Estate Assumptions The high level screening will correspond to the ‘do-nothing’ option

Impact Qualitative or Impact Monetary likely? Impact details quantitative category valuation (Y/N) assessment

Economic impacts

no assets on site but possible damage to Assets Y • ✓ cables following erosion of dunes.

Land use N

Transport N

Business N development

Environmental impacts

• maintenance of natural coastal conditions will help to maintain habitats and Physical Y conservation interests of SPA, SSSI and ✓ habitats NNR. Potential loss of County Wildlife Site. Water quality N

Water quantity N

Natural N processes

Historical N environment

Landscape • may be localised changes in landscape and visual Y due to areas of erosion/advance of ✓ amenity dunes.

Social impacts

• may be some loss of access to beach if dunes are eroded, but there is likely to be Recreation Y a balance between retreat and advance ✓ such that alternative access points are likely to become available. Health and N safety

Availability and N accessibility of services

30 Appendix B1.1 Table B1.1.3: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – high level screening Winterton (Management Unit WIN 2) from Winterton, Beach Road to Project name Hemsby, Long Beach Estate Assumptions The high level screening will correspond to the ‘do-nothing’ option

Impact Qualitative or Impact Monetary likely? Impact details quantitative category valuation (Y/N) assessment

Equity N

Sense of N community

Cross-cutting impacts

Policy is in line with policy to make coastal Y • ✓ Integration processes more natural and sustainable.

Appendix B1.1 31

Appendix B1.2:

Appraisal summary table for main assessment – MA-AST for Kelling Hard to Lowestoft Ness SMP – Cromer Frontage

Appendix B1.2 33 Table B1.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Cromer (Run 3 of Management Area ‘RUN’) from Cromer, Bernard Road Project name to Cromer Coastguard Lookout

Description of option ‘Do-nothing’ Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Cromer currently Description of area protected by groynes, a Victorian seawall and promenade. The groynes affected by option are expected to fail towards the end of 20 years. After 20 years, there will be complete failure of the seawall.

Impact Quantitative assessment of Qualitative description of Impact category likely? impacts impacts (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary value

Economic impacts

80m will be eroded in 80 years Assets Y Loss of residential and £11.3m (from year 20 to 100) at an commercial properties erosion rate of 1m/yr. from 20 years onwards. Loss of: Loss of infrastructure - 40 residential properties; associated with properties. - 30 commercial/tourist properties; Loss of tourist facilities - 1km of promenade; along the sea front. - 1 lifeboat station; and Loss of Victorian seawall. - 1 pier. Average house price in ‘NR32 Loss of life boat station 9’ is £128,000 (Oct-Dec 2003, after 20 years and pier from Land Registry Internet after 50 years. Site). Total value of lost properties: £5.1million. Average rating (from Valuation Agency Office) for 2000 of £20,000 per year; assumed total value is 10x rating = £200,000 per property. Total value of lost properties: £6.0 million. Lifeboat station assumed to have same value as commercial properties: £200,000. Loss of promenade valued in terms of recreation trips.

Land use Y Change from residential 0 and commercial land use to abandoned areas with derelict/damaged properties.

34 Appendix B1.2 Table B1.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Cromer (Run 3 of Management Area ‘RUN’) from Cromer, Bernard Road Project name to Cromer Coastguard Lookout

Impact Quantitative assessment of Qualitative description of Impact category likely? impacts impacts (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary value

Transport Y Loss of some local roads, 0.75km of A149 and 2km of 0 plus part of A149. local roads

Business Y Loss of tourist facilities is Loss of 30 commercial 0 development likely to have knock-on properties, many of which rely impacts on economy on on the tourist trade (fish & chip town (which relies largely shops, souvenir shops, etc.). on tourism) such that business development is also likely to be reduced.

Environmental impacts

Physical habitats Y Natural environmental Loss of one county wildlife 0 features are reliant on site. presently defended line remaining stable such that erosion of cliffs would result in loss of vegetated cliff face, which is a County Wildlife Site.

Water quality N

Water quantity N

Natural N processes

Historical Y After 20 years, there will Loss of five Grade II listed £1m environment be (gradual) loss of Grade buildings from year 20 II listed buildings, the onwards. church and other important monuments. Assumed that ‘heritage’ value of properties is equivalent to ‘twice’ the value of standard commercial properties, i.e. £200,000 per property

Appendix B1.2 35 Table B1.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Cromer (Run 3 of Management Area ‘RUN’) from Cromer, Bernard Road Project name to Cromer Coastguard Lookout

Impact Quantitative assessment of Qualitative description of Impact category likely? impacts impacts (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary value

Landscape and Y Loss of historic buildings, 0 visual amenity loss of promenade will alter the visual amenity of the town. The beach is also likely to retreat changing the coastal landscape.

Social impacts

Loss of access to beach from town of Cromer along 1km. Assuming 100,000 visits to the Loss of promenade town per year with willingness (between 20 and 50 to pay of £3.59 per visit (based years), loss of pier after 50 on deterioration in beach and Recreation Y years, loss of access to promenade in Multi-Coloured beach as promenade is Manual, from study in Yellow lost. Manual) gives lost annual value to recreation of: 100,000 x £3.59 = £359,000 per year

Gradual loss of promenade is likely to make beach access more dangerous. Loss of the Health and safety Y 0 lifeboat station may affect lifesaving actions to sea, while loss of pier may affect nearshore craft.

Loss of many commercial Availability and properties and accessibility of Y infrastructure is likely to 0 services affect services within the town.

36 Appendix B1.2 Table B1.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Cromer (Run 3 of Management Area ‘RUN’) from Cromer, Bernard Road Project name to Cromer Coastguard Lookout

Impact Quantitative assessment of Qualitative description of Impact category likely? impacts impacts (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary value

Loss of tourism will reduce number of jobs available Equity Y 0 locally and is likely to increase deprivation.

Loss of tourism based jobs and properties are likely to result in people having to move out of the local area. Sense of Y The cost of housing 0 community nearby is very high such that the existing community is likely to be widely dispersed.

Cross-cutting impacts

Potential for a move to a more naturally functioning Policy Integration Y 0 coastline but at the expense of local planning.

Appendix B1.2 37 Table B1.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Cromer (Run 3 of Management Area ‘RUN’) from Cromer, Bernard Road Project name to Cromer Coastguard Lookout

Description of option Managed re-alignment Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Cromer currently protected by groynes, a Victorian seawall and promenade. The groynes Description of area would be allowed to fail (by year 20), after which the seawall would fail. affected by option Works would be undertaken to reduce issues of safety, with access to the beach likely to be restricted much sooner that under ‘do-nothing’.

Impact Quantitative assessment of Impact Qualitative description likely? impacts category of impacts (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary value

Economic impacts

80m will be eroded in 80 years (from year 20 to 100) at an erosion rate of 1m/yr. Loss of: - 40 residential properties; - 30 commercial/tourist Loss of residential and properties; commercial properties - 1km of promenade; from 20 years onwards. - 1 lifeboat station; and - 1 pier. Loss of infrastructure associated with Average house price in ‘NR32 properties. 9’ is £128,000 (Oct-Dec 2003, from Land Registry Internet Assets Y £11.3m Loss of tourist facilities Site). Total value of lost along the sea front. properties: £5.1million. Average rating (from Valuation Loss of Victorian seawall. Agency Office) for 2000 of £20,000 per year; assumed Loss of lifeboat station total value is 10x rating = after 20 years and pier £200,000 per property. Total after 50 years. value of lost properties: £6.0 million. Lifeboat station assumed to have same value as commercial properties: £200,000. Loss of promenade valued in terms of recreation trips.

Change from residential and commercial land use Land use Y to abandoned areas with 0 derelict/damaged properties.

38 Appendix B1.2 Table B1.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Cromer (Run 3 of Management Area ‘RUN’) from Cromer, Bernard Road Project name to Cromer Coastguard Lookout

Impact Quantitative assessment of Impact Qualitative description likely? impacts category of impacts (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary value

Loss of some local roads, 0.75km of A149 and 2km of Transport Y 0 plus part of A149. local roads

Loss of tourist facilities is likely to have knock-on Loss of 30 commercial impacts on economy of Business properties, many of which rely Y town (which relies largely 0 development on the tourist trade (fish & chip on tourism) such that shops, souvenir shops, etc.). business development is also likely to be reduced.

Environmental impacts

Natural environmental features are reliant on presently defended line Physical remaining stable such that Loss of one county wildlife Y 0 habitats erosion of cliffs would site. result in loss of vegetated cliff face, which is a County Wildlife Site.

Water quality N

Water quantity N

Natural N processes

Loss of five Grade II listed buildings from year 20 After 20 years, there will onwards. be (gradual) loss of Grade Historical Y II listed buildings, the Assumed that ‘heritage’ value £1m Environment church and other of properties is equivalent to important monuments. ‘twice’ the value of standard commercial properties, i.e. £200,000 per property

Appendix B1.2 39 Table B1.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Cromer (Run 3 of Management Area ‘RUN’) from Cromer, Bernard Road Project name to Cromer Coastguard Lookout

Impact Quantitative assessment of Impact Qualitative description likely? impacts category of impacts (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary value

Loss of historic buildings, loss of promenade will alter the visual amenity of Landscape and Y the town. The beach is 0 visual amenity also likely to retreat changing the coastal landscape.

Social impacts

Loss of access to beach from Loss of promenade town of Cromer along 1km. (between 20 and 50 Assuming 100,000 visits to the years), loss of pier after town with willingness to pay of 50 years, loss of access £3.59 per visit (based on to beach may occur deterioration in beach and Recreation Y earlier than year 20 due to promenade in Multi-Coloured failure of groynes that Manual, from study in Yellow could pose a safety Manual) gives lost annual hazard. value to recreation of: 100,000 x £3.59 = £359,000 per year

Loss of lifeboat station may affect lifesaving actions to sea, while loss Health and of pier may affect Y 50 safety nearshore craft. Safety associated with beach access will be controlled as far as possible.

Loss of many commercial Availability and properties and accessibility of Y infrastructure is likely to 0 services affect services within the town.

40 Appendix B1.2 Table B1.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Cromer (Run 3 of Management Area ‘RUN’) from Cromer, Bernard Road Project name to Cromer Coastguard Lookout

Impact Quantitative assessment of Impact Qualitative description likely? impacts category of impacts (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary value

Loss of tourism will reduce number of jobs Equity Y available locally and is 0 likely to increase deprivation.

Loss of tourism based jobs and properties are likely to result in people having to move out of the Sense of Y local area. The cost of 0 community housing nearby is very high such that the existing community is likely to be widely dispersed.

Cross-cutting impacts

Potential for a move to a Policy more naturally functioning Y 0 integration coastline but at the expense of local planning.

Appendix B1.2 41 Table B1.2.3: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Cromer (Run 3 of Management Area ‘RUN’) from Cromer, Bernard Road Project name to Cromer Coastguard Lookout

Description of option ‘hold the line’ Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Cromer currently Description of area protected by groynes, a Victorian seawall and promenade. The groynes affected by option and seawall would be maintained such that the promenade would be retained and there would be no loss of properties.

Impact Quantitative assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Economic impacts

Properties protected until year 100 by scheme, such Assets Y that erosion damages would not begin until year 120.

Maintenance of current Land use Y 100 land use.

All roads and infrastructure Transport Y 100 would be protected.

Protection of tourist Business facilities may encourage Y 100 development on-going business development.

Environmental impacts

Protection of natural Physical environmental features, Y 100 habitats including a County Wildlife Site.

Water quality N

Water quantity N

Natural N processes

Historical Protection of historic Y environment buildings

42 Appendix B1.2 Table B1.2.3: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Cromer (Run 3 of Management Area ‘RUN’) from Cromer, Bernard Road Project name to Cromer Coastguard Lookout

Impact Quantitative assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Landscape and Visual amenity will be Y 100 visual amenity unchanged.

Social impacts

Recreation can continue Recreation Y unhindered (damages avoided).

Protection of lifeboat station ensures that Health and Y reduction in safety does not 100 safety occur (onshore or offshore).

Availability and Protection of services and accessibility of Y 100 economy. services

Protection of tourist facilities, commercial and residential properties Equity Y should prevent undue 100 impacts on any groups as a result of flood defence policy.

Protection of town should Sense of Y maintain sense of 100 community community.

Appendix B1.2 43 Table B1.2.3: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Cromer (Run 3 of Management Area ‘RUN’) from Cromer, Bernard Road Project name to Cromer Coastguard Lookout

Impact Quantitative assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Cross-cutting impacts

Prevents move to a more natural coastline, but is Policy Y more in line with local 100 Integration authority, planning, etc. policies.

44 Appendix B1.2 Appendix B1.3:

Appraisal summary table for main assessment – MA-AST for Kelling Hard to Lowestoft Ness SMP – Trimingham Frontage

Appendix B1.3 45 Table B1.3.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Trimingham (TRI5) from Trimingham, Beacon Hill to Mundesley, Project name Seaview Road. Description of option ‘‘DO-NOTHING’’ Description of area The area contains a sandy beach with a little shingle fronting cliffs which affected by option decrease in height towards Mundesley.

Impact Qualitative Quantitative assessment Impact likely? description of of impacts category value (Y/N) impacts (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Economic impacts

2 caravan parks plus 7 properties due to erosion of 2 m/yr. Also loss of agricultural reservoir and 7ha of agricultural land.

Potential loss of Average price of detached caravan parks and property: £220,000 (from isolated properties in Land Registry Internet site Damages Assets Y Vale Road, for Oct-Dec 2003). of £0.5m Mundesley. Agricultural land would Average rateable value of also be lost. caravan parks: £60,000 x 10 = £600,000

Average value of land (assumed to be Grade 3): £7,203 per ha (multiplied by 0.45).

Change in land use from Land use Y recreational/residential 0 /agricultural to coastline.

Small lengths of local roads lost, plus erosion Transport Y of coastline may 0.3km of local roads lost. 0 threaten B1159 after 100 years.

Loss of caravan parks is likely to affect tourism in the area, Business Y although there are 0 development many other sites further back from the defences.

Environmental impacts

46 Appendix B1.3 Table B1.3.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Trimingham (TRI5) from Trimingham, Beacon Hill to Mundesley, Project name Seaview Road. Description of option ‘‘DO-NOTHING’’ Description of area The area contains a sandy beach with a little shingle fronting cliffs which affected by option decrease in height towards Mundesley.

Impact Qualitative Quantitative assessment Impact likely? description of of impacts category value (Y/N) impacts (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Sidestrand and Trimingham Cliffs SSSI continues through this area and part of Mundesley Cliffs CWS. ‘Do- Physical Y nothing’ would allow 100 habitats for continuance of erosion which is important for the maintenance of the environmental interests.

Water quality N

Water N quantity

Continued erosion will provide sediment that will be moved off-site due to the high on- offshore energy Natural component. This will Y 100 processes provide sediment supply to adjacent areas (although there is also the possibility of outflanking of defences).

Historical N environment

Change is landscape as cliffs erode back Landscape replacing caravan and visual Y 100 parks, agricultural land amenity and some residential properties.

Appendix B1.3 47 Table B1.3.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Trimingham (TRI5) from Trimingham, Beacon Hill to Mundesley, Project name Seaview Road. Description of option ‘‘DO-NOTHING’’ Description of area The area contains a sandy beach with a little shingle fronting cliffs which affected by option decrease in height towards Mundesley.

Impact Qualitative Quantitative assessment Impact likely? description of of impacts category value (Y/N) impacts (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Social Impacts ‘Cliff erosion, deterioration in beach and seawall, much reduced access to and Vale Road is the main along beach and seawall’ access point to the has £ loss per adult visit of beach, and the only £1.89 per visit (from access for 6km south Multicoloured Manual for Damages Recreation Y of Overstrand. Loss of Corton, staying visitors). of £0.8m this access point would Assuming 30,000 visits per result in a loss of year gives annual losses beach-based once the access is lost of: recreation in this area. 30,000 x £1.89 = £56,700 per year Access is assumed to be lost after 20 years. Potential health and safety issues if access to the beach is lost and no warnings/barriers Health and Y are put in place. The 0 safety current defences are also in poor condition and may represent a safety hazard.

Loss of tourist facilities may have knock-on Availability impacts on local and shops, businesses, Y 0 accessibility etc. that may result in of services loss of services for local people (and for visitors to the area).

48 Appendix B1.3 Table B1.3.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Trimingham (TRI5) from Trimingham, Beacon Hill to Mundesley, Project name Seaview Road. Description of option ‘‘DO-NOTHING’’ Description of area The area contains a sandy beach with a little shingle fronting cliffs which affected by option decrease in height towards Mundesley.

Impact Qualitative Quantitative assessment Impact likely? description of of impacts category value (Y/N) impacts (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Loss of facilities, both for tourists and locals, is likely to result in local job losses and may increase deprivation in an area that relies on income Equity Y 0 from tourism. Loss of beach access would also affect recreation in the area (again for visitors and locals) and would reduce the quality of life.

Loss of businesses, employment and some Sense of Y properties is likely to 0 community reduce the sense of community.

Cross-cutting impacts

The coastline would move to a more natural state and would Policy provide sediment for Y 0 integration adjacent units. Tourism (and the economy) would be impacted.

Appendix B1.3 49 Table B1.3.2: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Trimingham (TRI5) from Trimingham, Beacon Hill to Mundesley, Seaview Project name Road. Description of option MANAGED REALIGNMENT Description of area The area contains a sandy beach with a little shingle fronting cliffs which affected by option decrease in height towards Mundesley.

Impact Quantitative assessment Impact Qualitative description likely? of impacts category of impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Economic impacts

2 caravan parks plus 7 properties due to erosion of 2 m/yr. Also loss of agricultural reservoir and 7ha of agricultural land. Potential loss of isolated properties in Vale Road, Average price of detached Mundesley. Agricultural property: £220,000 (from land would also be lost. Land Registry Internet site Under managed Damages Assets Y for Oct-Dec 2003). realignment, the caravan of £0.2m parks would be re-sited, Average rateable value of such that they are no caravan parks: £60,000 x longer at risk from 10 = £600,000 erosion. Average value of land (assumed to be Grade 3): £7,203 per ha (multiplied by 0.45).

Change in land use from tourism/residential/agricul Score based on number of tural to coastline, with land use ‘types’ affected Land use Y agricultural land likely to (here, agricultural and 33 be the new sites for the residential are affected while caravan parks that will tourism is not). have to move.

Small lengths of local roads lost, plus erosion of Transport Y 0.3km of local roads lost. 0 coastline may threaten B1159 after 100 years.

Movement of caravan parks should offset most Study for North Norfolk of the business District Council shows that Business development issues. Y 20% of trips (and spend) are 80 development However, loss of beach made to the coast; assumed access may reduce the that these trips are lost. attraction of the local area to tourists.

50 Appendix B1.3 Table B1.3.2: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Trimingham (TRI5) from Trimingham, Beacon Hill to Mundesley, Seaview Project name Road. Description of option MANAGED REALIGNMENT Description of area The area contains a sandy beach with a little shingle fronting cliffs which affected by option decrease in height towards Mundesley.

Impact Quantitative assessment Impact Qualitative description likely? of impacts category of impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Environmental impacts

Sidestrand and Trimingham Cliffs SSSI continues through this area and part of Mundesley Cliffs CWS. Physical Y Managed realignment 100 habitats would allow for continuance of erosion which is important for the maintenance of the environmental interests.

Water quality N

Water N quantity

Continued erosion will provide sediment that will be moved off-site due to the high on-offshore Natural energy component. This Y 100 processes will provide sediment supply to adjacent areas (although there is also the possibility of outflanking of defences).

Historical N environment

Change is landscape as cliffs erode back replacing agricultural land and some residential Landscape properties. Caravan and visual Y 0 parks would move to amenity what is currently agricultural land, changing the landscape inland.

Appendix B1.3 51 Table B1.3.2: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Trimingham (TRI5) from Trimingham, Beacon Hill to Mundesley, Seaview Project name Road. Description of option MANAGED REALIGNMENT Description of area The area contains a sandy beach with a little shingle fronting cliffs which affected by option decrease in height towards Mundesley.

Impact Quantitative assessment Impact Qualitative description likely? of impacts category of impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Social impacts ‘Cliff erosion, deterioration in Vale Road is the main beach and seawall, much access point to the reduced access to and along beach, and the only beach and seawall’ has £ access for 6km south of loss per adult visit of £1.89 Overstrand. Loss of this per visit (from Multicoloured access point would result Manual for Corton, staying Damages Recreation Y in a loss of beach-based visitors). of £0.8m recreation in this area Assuming 30,000 visits per (and may affect the year gives annual losses attraction of the area to once the access is lost of: visitors unless new beach 30,000 x £1.89 = £56,700 access points can be per year provided). Access is assumed to be lost after 20 years. Warning/barriers would be put in place Warnings, barriers and preventing use of Vale removing of defences as Road as a beach access required will reduce safety Health and Y point. The current issues such that this option 100 safety defences would be is not considered to result in monitored with any safety any additional risk to that of issues dealt with as ‘hold the line’. required. With 20% of trips (and spend) lost from reduced number of tourist trips, there Tourist facilities would be will be knock-on impacts on Availability moved, but loss of beach local services. The study by and Y access may reduce North Norfolk District 70 accessibility attraction of the area to Council allows a multiplier of of services visitors. 1.5 to be calculated (in terms of jobs supported) such that 30% of services may be affected.

52 Appendix B1.3 Table B1.3.2: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Trimingham (TRI5) from Trimingham, Beacon Hill to Mundesley, Seaview Project name Road. Description of option MANAGED REALIGNMENT Description of area The area contains a sandy beach with a little shingle fronting cliffs which affected by option decrease in height towards Mundesley.

Impact Quantitative assessment Impact Qualitative description likely? of impacts category of impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Any reduction in the number of tourists visiting the area is likely to result in local job losses and may increase deprivation Based on loss of access for in an area that relies on trips made to coast and Equity Y income from tourism. 70 knock-on impacts for local Loss of beach access services. would also affect recreation in the area (again for visitors and locals) and would reduce the quality of life. Again based on number of Any loss of businesses, trips as the impacts of this employment and some are what will drive the loss of Sense of Y properties are likely to sense of community. Impact 70 community reduce the sense of from lost residential community. properties is insignificant (7 out of 971 properties). Cross-cutting impacts

The coastline would move to a more natural state and would provide sediment for adjacent Policy units. Tourism (and the Y 100 integration economy) would be protected to some degree, but loss of beach access is likely to affect recreation policies.

Appendix B1.3 53 Table B1.3.3 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Trimingham (TRI5) from Trimingham, Beacon Hill to Mundesley, Seaview Project name Road. Description of option HOLD THE LINE Description of area The area contains a sandy beach with a little shingle fronting cliffs which affected by option decrease in height towards Mundesley.

Impact Quantitative assessment Impact Qualitative description likely? of impacts category of impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Economic impacts

Protection of properties in Vale Road, Protection against erosion Damages of Assets Y Mundesley, agricultural for 100 years. £0.02m land and caravan parks.

No change in current Land use Y 100 land use.

All local roads would be Transport Y 100 protected.

There would be no Business impacts on business Y 100 development development from the policy of hold the line.

Environmental impacts

Sidestrand and Trimingham Cliffs SSSI continue through this area and part of Mundesley Cliffs CWS. Hold the line would Physical prevent erosion of the Y 0 habitats cliffs, which is important for the maintenance of the environmental interests. Hence, the environmental interests are likely to reduce over time.

Water quality N

Water quantity N

54 Appendix B1.3 Table B1.3.3 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Trimingham (TRI5) from Trimingham, Beacon Hill to Mundesley, Seaview Project name Road. Description of option HOLD THE LINE Description of area The area contains a sandy beach with a little shingle fronting cliffs which affected by option decrease in height towards Mundesley.

Impact Quantitative assessment Impact Qualitative description likely? of impacts category of impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Erosion will be minimised such that there will be a reduction in sediment that can be moved off-site due to the high on-offshore Natural Y energy component. 0 processes This will reduce sediment supply to adjacent areas (although there is no longer the possibility of outflanking of defences).

Historical N Environment Based on the NERA Protection of current Landscape Intrusion Index Landscape and land use will mean that Y and slight intrusion, which 60 visual amenity landscape will remain indicates a reduction of unchanged. 40%. Social impacts

Vale Road is the main access point to the beach, and the only access for 6km south of No loss of access for Overstrand. Under hold Damages of Recreation Y beach-based erosion for the line, the access £0.03m 100 years. point would be protected such that recreation would be able to continue.

The current defences will need to be upgraded Health and Y such that health and 100 safety safety concerns would no longer be an issue.

Availability and Protection of facilities accessibility of Y will ensure that services 100 services are maintained.

Appendix B1.3 55 Table B1.3.3 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Trimingham (TRI5) from Trimingham, Beacon Hill to Mundesley, Seaview Project name Road. Description of option HOLD THE LINE Description of area The area contains a sandy beach with a little shingle fronting cliffs which affected by option decrease in height towards Mundesley.

Impact Quantitative assessment Impact Qualitative description likely? of impacts category of impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Maintenance of the beach access should Equity Y 100 ensure that there is no impact upon equity.

The community will be Sense of protected from erosion Y 100 community and may feel more secure.

Cross-cutting impacts

Hold the line would minimise the potential for a move to a more sustainable, natural Policy coastline and may affect Y 0 Integration adjacent areas due to a reduction in sediment supply. Economic policies are supported by this option.

56 Appendix B1.3 Appendix B1.4:

Appraisal summary table for main assessment – MA-AST for Kelling Hard to Lowestoft Ness SMP – Winterton Frontage

Appendix B1.4 57 Table B1.4.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Winterton (Management Unit WIN 2) from Winterton, Beach Road to Project name Hemsby, Long Beach Estate Description of option ‘do-nothing’ Beach with dune system up to 500m inland. Important conservation Description of area area with SPA, SSSI, NNR and CWS designations and area also falls affected by option into the Norfolk Coast AONB. Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary

Economic impacts

No assets on site but Assets Y possible damage to cables 0 following erosion of dunes.

Land use N

Transport N

Business N development

Environmental impacts

Maintenance of natural coastal conditions will help to maintain habitats and Physical Y conservation interests of 100 habitats SPA, SSSI and NNR. Potential loss of County Wildlife Site.

Water quality N

Water quantity N

Natural N processes

Historical N Environment

May be localised changes in All Landscape and Y landscape due to areas of options visual amenity erosion/advance of dunes. same

58 Appendix B1.4 Table B1.4.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Winterton (Management Unit WIN 2) from Winterton, Beach Road to Project name Hemsby, Long Beach Estate Description of option ‘do-nothing’ Beach with dune system up to 500m inland. Important conservation Description of area area with SPA, SSSI, NNR and CWS designations and area also falls affected by option into the Norfolk Coast AONB. Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary

Social impacts

May be some loss of access to beach if dunes are eroded, but there is likely to be a All Recreation Y balance between retreat and options advance such that alternative same access points are likely to become available.

Health and N safety

Availability and accessibility of N services

Equity N

Sense of N community

Cross-cutting impacts

Is in line with policy to make Policy Y coastal processes more 100 integration natural and sustainable.

Appendix B1.4 59 Table B1.4.2: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Winterton (Management Unit WIN 2) from Winterton, Beach Road to Project name Hemsby, Long Beach Estate Managed re-alignment (this option is equivalent to ‘do-nothing’ as Description of option there are no defences on site at present) Beach with dune system up to 500m inland. Important conservation Description of area area with SPA, SSSI, NNR and CWS designations and area also falls affected by option into the Norfolk Coast AONB.

Impact Quantitative Impact Qualitative description of likely? assessment of impacts category impacts (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary value

Economic impacts

No assets on site but Assets Y possible damage to cables 0 following erosion of dunes.

Land use N

Transport N

Business N development

Environmental impacts

Maintenance of natural coastal conditions will help to maintain habitats and Physical Y conservation interests of 100 habitats SPA, SSSI and NNR. Potential loss of County Wildlife Site.

Water quality N

Water quantity N

Natural N processes

Historical N Environment

May be localised changes in All Landscape and Y landscape due to areas of options visual amenity erosion/advance of dunes. same

60 Appendix B1.4 Table B1.4.2: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Winterton (Management Unit WIN 2) from Winterton, Beach Road to Project name Hemsby, Long Beach Estate Managed re-alignment (this option is equivalent to ‘do-nothing’ as Description of option there are no defences on site at present) Beach with dune system up to 500m inland. Important conservation Description of area area with SPA, SSSI, NNR and CWS designations and area also falls affected by option into the Norfolk Coast AONB.

Impact Quantitative Impact Qualitative description of likely? assessment of impacts category impacts (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary value

Social impacts

Health and N safety

Availability and accessibility of N services

Equity N

Sense of N community

Cross-cutting impacts

Is in line with policy to make Policy Y coastal processes more 100 Integration natural and sustainable.

Appendix B1.4 61 Table B1.4.3: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Winterton (Management Unit WIN 2) from Winterton, Beach Road to Project name Hemsby, Long Beach Estate Description of option ‘hold the line’ Beach with dune system up to 500m inland. Important conservation Description of area area with SPA, SSSI, NNR and CWS designations and area also falls affected by option into the Norfolk Coast AONB. Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts (Y/N)

(no. units/monetary) Score Monetary value

Economic impacts

Work would be undertaken to protect cables if there is a Assets Y 100 risk that impacts would occur.

Land use N

Transport N

Business N development

Environmental impacts

Minimal intervention will ensure that the natural coastal conditions are maintained and will help to Physical Y maintain habitats and 0 habitats conservation interests of SPA, SSSI and NNR. Potential loss of County Wildlife Site.

Water quality N

Water quantity N

Natural N processes

Historical N environment

May be localised changes in All Landscape and Y landscape due to areas of options visual amenity erosion/advance of dunes. same

62 Appendix B1.4 Table B1.4.3: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Winterton (Management Unit WIN 2) from Winterton, Beach Road to Project name Hemsby, Long Beach Estate Description of option ‘hold the line’ Beach with dune system up to 500m inland. Important conservation Description of area area with SPA, SSSI, NNR and CWS designations and area also falls affected by option into the Norfolk Coast AONB. Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts (Y/N)

(no. units/monetary) Score Monetary value

Social impacts

Health and N safety

Availability and accessibility of N services

Equity N

Sense of N community

Cross-cutting impacts

Is in line with policy to make coastal processes more Policy Y natural and sustainable, with 0 Integration intervention only occurring where necessary.

Appendix B1.4 63 Joint Defra/EA Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management R&D Programme

Annex B.2:

Case study no.2:

Assessment of the Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy

R&D Project Record FD2013/PR2

Dissemination Status Internal: Released internally External: Released to public domain

Keywords: Multi criteria analysis, MCA, appraisal summary table, AST, decision rule

Acknowledgements The assistance of those providing information for the case studies is gratefully acknowledged.

Defra project manager: Matt Crossman, Defra, 3D Ergon House, Horseferry Rd, London, SW1P 2AL. Email: [email protected]

Publishing organisation Defra Flood Management Division Ergon House Horseferry Road London SW1P 2AL Tel: 020 7238 3000 Fax: 020 7238 6187 www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd

¬ Crown copyright (Defra); 2005

Published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Printed in the UK, March 2005 on recycled material containing 80% post-consumer waste and 20% totally chlorine free virgin pulp.

PB No. 10734/PR2 ISBN 0-85521-146-6

ii 1. Introduction

1.1 Overview

This report presents the MCA-based project appraisal process for part of the Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy. This strategy assessment was based on the original appraisal process - The Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy - carried out by the Environment Agency (EA), Chichester District Council and Arun District Council in 2001. The Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy has been revised since then.

The information reported here is based on the following documents:

• Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy - main document; and • Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy - annexes

A significant amount of information was provided for this case study, including the several amended versions of the strategy appraisal.

The coastal defence strategy area extends from Pagham Beach in the east to East Head in the west, covering a distance of approximately 21km of open coastline. It also includes Pagham Harbour, which contains approximately 7.5km of enclosed shoreline.

The study frontage can be broadly described, from east to west, by the following coastal features:

• extensive shingle beaches, banks and spits at the mouth of Pagham Harbour; • extensive areas of mudflats and saltmarsh surrounded by brackish marsh and pasture in Pagham Harbour; • shingle beaches with coastal defences fronting extensive residential development at Selsey; • shingle beaches and banks fronting an extensive area of low lying land used for agricultural and recreational purposes at Medmerry; • extensive shingle beaches fronting East Wittering; • extensive shingle beach with high quality and high value residential development along the Cakeham Frontage; and • dynamic dune/shingle system with coastal flora and fauna at East Head.

For the original appraisal process, the coastal strip was divided into seven management units (MU - discrete lengths of coastline that possess similar characteristics in terms of natural coastal processes and land use) that in turn were subdivided into operational units (OU). A summary of the management units and operational units is given in Table 1.1.

Section 1: Introduction 1 For practical reasons it was decided to only apply the MCA-based appraisal methodology to two of the management units of the Pagham to East Head Strategy, namely:

• West Beach Selsey to Bracklesham (MU3 – OU 5A and 5B - Medmerry frontage); and • Bracklesham to East Wittering (MU4 – OU 6A- East Wittering frontage).

There were several reasons why these two MUs where chosen:

• the MUs chosen are adjacent to each other and cover a large portion of the whole of the strategy coastal frontage; • they are contrasting in nature, with MU 3 being mainly rural whilst MU 4 is more residential in nature; and • the two frontages being assessed are among the areas of the strategy in most need of flooding and coastal protection attention given the residual lives of the defences and the standard of defence being provided to the adjacent land.

Table 1.1: Summary of Pagham to East Head strategy management units and operational units Management Units Operational Units No Name No Name - Pagham Harbour 2A Pagham Harbour (Exposed Shoreline)

2B Pagham Harbour (Sheltered Shoreline)

1 Pagham Beach to East Beach 1B Pagham Harbour Shingle Spits Selsey 1A Pagham Beach 1C Church Norton 2 East Beach Selsey to West 3A Selsey East Beach Beach Selsey 4A Selsey Bill 4B Selsey West Beach 3 West Beach Selsey to 5A Medmerry Cliffs Bracklesham 5B Medmerry Shingle Bank 4 Bracklesham to East Wittering 6A East Wittering

5 Cakeham Estate to East Head 7A Cakeham 7B West Wittering Estates 8A East Head - - 8B West Wittering Town

2 Section 1: Introduction 1.2 Summary of the project area

From East Head to Selsey Bill Peninsula the coastline is dominated by the broad sweep of Bracklesham Bay. The predominantly flint gravel beach that runs along the entire frontage is punctuated by the built up frontage of East Wittering, where the extensive sea walls and defences protect the town from erosion. The shingle ridge running from East Wittering to West Selsey provides expansive views across low-lying grade 3 agricultural land (Medmerry frontage), in its majority arable or improved grassland, although an area of semi-improved grassland lies adjacent to the coastline. Former marsh and intertidal land, this largely treeless area is now crossed by a network of drainage ditches feeding into Broad Rife, the main dyke that eventually flows into Pagham Harbour. Based on the Environment Agency classification systems, the stretch of the Broad Rife between the Selsey Sewage Treatment Works and Northcommon Farm has a “poor” chemical quality and a biological class of B (good).

At both its eastern and western edges this agricultural landscape is interrupted by tourism development. Holiday sites and caravans lie behind the sea defences along the western extent of the Medmerry frontage, and at the eastern end of East Wittering (at the eastern end of Medmerry frontage).

It is in this setting that the two management units being appraised in this case study are situated, Medmerry and East Wittering Frontage.

1.2.1 Medmerry Frontage

Operational Units 5A and 5B (MU 3) cover the stretch of coastline between Selsey and East Wittering, known as Medmerry. This frontage is part of Bracklesham Bay and is an area of natural cliffs and shingle banks.

The land use around the frontage is predominantly agricultural (arable and pasture) with one of the main commercial features of the study area being a specialist lettuce growing farm and salad-packing plant, which occupies land across the Selsey Peninsula to Medmerry.

There are residential properties along the east of the frontage. Also, there are also small industrial and retail units located in this frontage, as well as a sewage treatment work plant. The only road link to Selsey also crosses the floodplain in the Medmerry frontage.

A number of caravan sites, with fixed and touring pitches, and other holiday accommodation are located in the area. The two larger resorts are the West Sands/White Horse/Greenlawns complex that accommodates more than 2000 caravans and the Selsey Country Club, which has around 300 chalets. Both resorts provide amenities such as swimming pools, clubhouses, sports facilities and a golf club.

Section 1: Introduction 3 Tourism and recreation play a significant role in the local economy of the area, as indicated by the large caravan parks and holiday villages. The beach itself is a popular tourist attraction and site for recreation activities.

Land based recreational activities along the coast are generally informal but considered important within the region. Cycling constitutes a method of local transportation as well as recreational activity undertaken by local residents and holiday makers alike, with a route along the coast from Selsey to Bracklesham. A cycle hire shop is located at East Wittering.

Shoreline angling takes place along the coast at Bracklesham, both at club and individual level. Also, there is one access point for beach launched sailing boats at Bracklesham.

The environmental importance of the study frontage is reflected in the wide range and number of designated sites of nature conservation interest.

The inter-tidal area from West Wittering to West Street, Selsey, and an area of low-lying pasture at Broad Rife is designated as the Bracklesham Bay Site of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI). This SSSI consists of unimproved grazing pasture, which is important for the bird populations they support (including breeding redshank, ringed plover, snipe, lapwing, wintering ruff, golden plover and Brent geese amongst others), saltmarsh, shingle bank, rifes and associated reed beds, and geological exposures. The loop in Broad Rife, at Medmerry, is probably the most important site in West Sussex for over-wintering short-eared owls.

The backshore is designated for its wet grassland habitat and includes a backshore Site of Nature Conservation Importance (SNCI) - Crablands Farm Meadow. Also, located just offshore, there is a marine SNCI - Bracklesham Balls.

Much of the coastline is also of importance for its geological and geomorphological interests. Both Medmerry and East Wittering frontages are classified as Geological Conservation Review Sites (GCRs). The foreshore along the wide sweep of Bracklesham Bay provides exposures through marine clays and sands of Tertiary age that yield a diverse fossil flora and fauna, including many species of fossil fish. Quaternary deposits yielding information on past environmental conditions and flora and fauna occur in this area. Due to the frequency of geological exposures of Tertiary and Quaternary age, the use of this resource both recreationally and educationally is considered of regional and national importance. Students from primary school age up to graduates use the area for fossil collecting and scientific research.

In addition, there have been a large number of occasional archaeological findings that provide evidence of early human activity along Selsey and Bracklesham coastline. These include Palaeolithic flint tools, Bronze Age and Iron Age artefacts and a Saxon settlement.

4 Section 1: Introduction 1.2.2 East Wittering Frontage

Operational Unit 6A (East Wittering frontage) makes up the fourth management unit and extends from the edge of Medmerry, to the east end of the Strand in Cakeham. The coastline is dominated by cliff and beach features, and the existing defences include timber groynes and a reinforced concrete seawall and apron.

The East Wittering frontage includes the urban areas of Bracklesham and East Wittering. Situated at the eastern end of the frontage are the Bracklesham Caravan and Boat Club with fixed caravans and chalets. The reminder of the frontage comprises a residential housing area. There is also arable and pasture farmland located inland.

The frontage provides a popular beach for informal recreational use, including traditional beach activities, dog walking and windsurfing. Also, sub-aqua activity is undertaken from East Wittering both at club and individual levels. Under water visibility is often excellent and the rich wildlife and cultural heritage (wricks and geological features) form a significant component of the diving experience. In addition, shoreline angling also takes place along the coast East Wittering, both at club and individual level.

Like the Medmerry frontage, this area of coastline is part of the Bracklesham Bay SSSI and GCRs and Bracklesham Ball mSNCI. In addition, there are several sites of historical interest along the shoreline and in the nearshore zone. The foreshore comprises fossiliferous marine clays and sands of Tertiary age that yield a significant flora and fish fauna.

As mentioned above, today land use along the study coastline is characterised by contrasts between the urban areas such as East Wittering and adjoining agricultural land, in Medmerry. The coastal strip being assessed has been naturally retreating. The proliferation of coastal defences along the frontage, has also resulted in a reduction of a natural supply of beach-building material. During the past 20 years, beach nourishment has become common practice in attempting to maintain a balanced sediment budget along much of the frontage, in particular Medmerry.

If the existing defences were to fail the majority of the frontage would be subject to flooding and erosion and subsequently to the loss of high value assets.

1.3 Existing defences

The whole area is managed in some way at present. Existing defences along the study coastline consist mainly of shingle beaches and groynes.

Historically, the low-lying land between Medmerry and Bracklesham has been protected by a shingle bank. This bank has retreated landward and become narrower due to progressive overtopping. Defence management has been

Section 1: Introduction 5 necessary to maintain the defences. In addition, the low-lying areas are drained by a number of rifes, with either pumped or gravity outfalls.

The existing defences for the Medmerry include timber groynes in fair to poor condition and in places a sheet piled sea wall also in fair to poor condition. The frontage is characterised by a cliffed backshore approximately 3m high (5m OD), a steep (approximately 1:8) flint shingle upper foreshore and a relatively gently sloping lower foreshore comprising medium to coarse sand.

Between May 1976 and February 1980, the Environment Agency implemented a major sea defence scheme along the Medmerry frontage, which included the placement of 230,000m3 of imported shingle recharge material and the construction of false heads to all 52 groynes (Environment Agency, 1998b). After completion, the shingle banks were reported to be 30m wide in most places. Beach recycling was carried out between February 1980 and December 1989, to maintain the desired beach profiles.

However, the shingle bank was breached in three places during the storms of December 1989, and approximately 70% of the original recharge material was lost to sea and never recovered. The recharge scheme had lasted effectively for only six years, and the shingle bank width had reduced to a maximum of 25m and a minimum of 10m. This reserve was depleted further during the storms of April 1994, when the shingle bank width was reduced from 20 to 3m over a 500m length at the Broad Rife outfall and from 7 to 1m adjacent to the windmill. However, most of the shingle was recovered.

Medmerry is among the areas of the whole strategy frontage most liable to flooding and overtopping.

Along the East Wittering frontage shingle beaches are backed by hard defences in the form of concrete sea walls and timber groynes.

In the south of the frontage a sea wall is fronted by a healthy beach. However, there is evidence of abrasion and undermining of parts of the sea wall. In this part of the shoreline there are also timber groynes with low residual life due to sever abrasion and/or lowering clay levels that have reduced the level of penetration of the piles.

The north part of the frontage is protected by timber groynes, with low residual life, and timber breastworks in parts. The latter are in manageable conditions but potentially threatened if beach levels fall significantly.

The residual life of defences in both MUs is very small, with the Medmerry frontage having less than 1-year residual life and East Wittering approximately 5 years. (Posford Duvivier, 2001). The degree of protection afforded by the defences, falls below that normally considered to be appropriate for the type of land use located behind the defended frontage. In consideration of the residual life of the defences and the standard of protection currently provided, the frontage most in need of attention is the Medmerry coastline, between Selsey and East Wittering.

6 Section 1: Introduction 1.4 Policy framework

The East Solent and South Downs Shoreline Management Plans (SMP) form the policy basis for the Pagham to East Head Coastal Strategy. The first Management Unit (MU) of the East Solent SMP overlaps with the last MU of the South Downs SMP. The preferred generic policy options identified in each SMP for this overlap are compatible.

The Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy is designed to provide a strategic framework of preferred policies for the coastal defence of the study area over the next 50 years, up to the year 2050. It will be reviewed and updated on a five-yearly basis.

The Environment Agency (EA) has permissive powers for the construction of sea defences along the coast for the 3.8km Medmerry stretch of coastline. Chichester District Council is the Coast Protection Authority for the majority of the remaining study coastline. The District Council’s Executive Board administers the construction and maintenance of coastal defence work.

Each of the three Operating Authorities responsible for the frontage carries out running maintenance of their structures. The EA also undertakes regular beach recharge and recycling. From time to time, major constructions works are undertaken to refurbish or upgrade the defences.

The EA has a Local Sussex Flood Defence Committee, which comprises representatives from local authorities and appointments made by MAFF. The principal role of the Committee is to review the work activities carried out by the Environment Agency and approve the allocation of flood defence funds.

1.5 List of stakeholders and interested parties

The Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy consultation was undertaken in two stages:

• initial consultation: general consultation including an explanation of the study and the consultation process and a specialist consultation during the Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and the economic appraisal (finished in 1999); • full consultation: the consultation draft report was made available for public inspection in local council offices, libraries, etc, as well as three questionnaire exhibitions were undertaken. In addition, local meetings were held with smaller, specific groups of interested parties and organisations.

General consultation has been undertaken with groups that have an interest in the long-term defence of the Selsey Peninsula. Groups contacted are listed in Table 1.2.

Section 1: Introduction 7 As part of the public consultation process the Environment Agency, Chichester District Council and Arun District Council sought the opinions of members of the public through the completion of questionnaires distributed at three public exhibitions. Its purpose was twofold:

• to learn more about those who have an active interest in the coastline; and • to seek their views on the type of coastal defences they would like to see in place.

Continuing from the initial consultation stages by letter and public displays a series of meetings were arranged with local interest groups. The meetings were held by request, following completion of the general questionnaire proforma, to gain a more detailed understanding of the issues relating to the individual frontages. The bodies that requested meetings ranged from commercial organisations, residents associations and concerned individuals. The meetings were attended by Posford Duvivier with other representatives from the Client Group sometimes present. The Local Interest Groups involved with meetings are listed in Table 1.2.

Table 1.2: Groups and individuals consulted on the Pagham to East Head Costal Defence Strategy Consultation Groups consulted stage General Local Authorities; Residents Associations; Commercial Consultation Environment Agency; Interests; County Councils; Major Land Owners; Navigational Interests; Conservation Groups; Statutory Consultees (e.g. Recreation Bodies; Crown Estate, MAFF, DETR); Local Residents Parish Councils Local National Farmers Union; Selsey Bill Residents Association; Consultation Pagham Residents Mr A Shaw; Association; Earnley Parish Council; Mr Hume Wallace; Mr M Heaton & Mr J Heinjie; Environment Agency (Mr P Mr D Bunn, Mr J Bunn & Mr O James; Pett); Friends of the Earth; West Wittering Residents Mr D Bone; Association; Chichester District Council Planners; Medmerry Owners; Havant Borough Council; National Trust/English Nature; West Sussex County Council West Selsey Caravan Association; Natures Way (David Landmead); Sussex Beach Holiday Village

8 Section 1: Introduction 2. Definition of objectives and management options

Posfords Duvivier (2001a) defined three different groups/levels of objectives for the Pagham to East Head Strategy:

• strategic objectives which are common to all coastal defence strategies; • study coastline objectives which are relevant only to the frontage being assessed; and • operational unit (OU) objectives which reflect the key interests within each OU.

The Pagham to East Head Strategy defines sustainable development as its main strategic objective. A coastal defence generic strategy is sustainable if it is:

• compatible with processes at work; • compatible with adjacent preferred options; • environmentally acceptable; • technically realistic; and • economically viable.

Table 2.1 illustrates the study coastline objectives defined by the Environment Agency for the Pagham to East Head frontage.

The appraisal of strategic options has to take into account the policy options selected by the Shoreline Management Plans. In general terms, the SMPs recommended that the preferred generic option would be to hold the line in the short term and consider managed retreat between Pagham Harbour and East Beach, and to hold line between East Beach and East Head. Table 2.2 presents the recommended policy option for the two frontages being assessed in this report.

The Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy considered a long list of options for all management units and each option was assessed in terms of the strategic, study coastline and operational objectives listed above.

The ‘do-nothing’ option was also assessed against the different objectives set out earlier. The Pagham to East Head Strategy considered that the ‘do-nothing’ option did not satisfy the strategic objectives. According to the Strategy, a do- nothing policy would result in almost immediate widespread erosion, and flooding damages along the majority of the study frontage. For these reasons the ‘do-nothing’ option was not carried forward in the appraisal process.

It should be noted that the MCA-based appraisal methodology will use the ‘do- nothing’ option as a baseline for the appraisal.

Section 2: Definition of objectives and management options 9 Table 2.1: Description study coastline objectives defined for the Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy. Objective Type Description Coastal defence To reduce the risk associated with flooding and erosion, taking measures to control the flooding and/or erosion to an appropriate standard. Land use and To provide protection against flooding and erosion in a manner planning consistent with relevant policies and objectives established within the planning framework and in other relevant management planning initiatives. Agriculture To provide an appropriate level of protection from flooding and erosion to the best and most versatile agricultural land. Fisheries To ensure that implementation of the preferred options do not have any adverse effects on the fishing industry, or that these effects are mitigated through management. Tourism and To provide appropriate protection to amenity facilities and access recreation presently used for recreation, or provide equivalent facilities. Archaeology To identify and mitigate any adverse effects that implementation of the preferred option may have on archaeological resources. Industry and To provide appropriate protection against flooding and erosion to centres Economic activity of industrial and economic activity. Navigation To identify, consider and mitigate any adverse effects that implementation of the preferred option may have on nearshore navigation, harbour facilities and beach launching sites. Nature To ensure that coastal defences and activities comply with the UK conservation and Biodiversity Action Plan, the statutory obligations of SSSI, SPAs, SACs, natural processes Ramsar Sites and the Habitats Directive. Landscape To identify, consider and mitigate any adverse effects that implementation of the preferred option may have on the natural landscape character of the study frontage. Water quality To identify, consider and mitigate any adverse effects that implementation of the preferred option may have on land drainage facilities, pumping stations and sewage treatment works.

Table 2.2: East Solent SMP preferred policy options for Medmerry and East Wittering frontages Frontage Preferred policy option Medmerry Hold the line in the short term East Wittering Hold the line

Having consideration for the generic policy options given in the East Solent SMP and long list of options referred to above, a number of potential ‘do- something’ scheme options were evaluated for each Operational Unit. Table 2.3 illustrates the ‘do-something’ options considered for the Medmerry and East Wittering Frontages. All of these options could have provided a standard of defence of 1 in 50 years or 1 in 150 years return period.

10 Section2: Definition of objectives and management options Table 2.3: ‘do-something’ options assessed by the Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy Frontage ‘do-something’ scheme options Continue with existing shingle bank and timber groynes, by Opt.1 (H) maintenance, renewal and upgrading as necessary As option 1 but reduced degree of upgrading and instead Opt.2 (H) improved flood warning systems Construct sea wall behind shingle bank, modify shingle bank Opt.3 (H) and timber groynes to form beach and groyne field in front of sea wall. Opt.4 (H/o) As option 3 but construct a road on top of the sea wall. Construct rock revetment against shingle bank and no Opt.5 (H) longer maintain groynes. As option 1 but no longer maintain timber groynes and Opt.6 (H) instead increased maintenance of shingle bank. As option 1 but reduce degree of upgrading and instead Opt.7 (H) construct offshore rock breakwaters. No longer maintain the Medmerry groynes. As option 1 in front of the holiday parks at the east and west Opt.8 (H/R) ends of the frontage and as option 12 over the central length. As option 5 in front of the holiday parks at the east and west Opt.9 (H/R) ends of the frontage and as option 12 over the central length. As option 1 but retreat line of defences to form a shallow Opt.10 (R) embayment. Maintain existing shingle bank and construct bastion rock groynes at wide centres, no longer maintain timber groynes Opt.11 (R/H) and allow shingle bank to for an embayment between rock groynes. No maintenance of shingle bank and groynes and construct Opt.12 (R) clay flood bank possibly up to 1000 m landward. Continue with existing concrete or timber sea wall, timber Opt.1 (H) groynes and beach by maintenance, renewal and upgrading as necessary. Maintain existing sea wall and construct substantial rock Opt.2 (H) revetment in front, no longer maintain groynes and beach. As option 1 but replace spaced timber groynes with widely Opt.3 (H) spaced more substantial rock groynes. East Maintain existing seawall and manage beach by regular Wittering Opt.4 (H) regrading, recycling and recharge and no longer maintain groyne field. Develop timber groynes and beach into shingle bank Opt.5 (H) defence and no longer maintain existing sea wall. Option 1 but reduce degree of upgrading and instead Opt.6 (H) construct offshore rock breakwaters. No longer maintain groynes.

During the development of the strategy, each of the above options was appraised in terms of whether it complies with the Strategic Objective, i.e. its compatibility with processes at work, its environmental acceptability, and its technical and economical viability. In addition, two other criteria were added, namely its compatibility with higher level plans and opportunities and agreement or disagreement from consultees.

Section 2: Definition of objectives and management options 11 Table 2.4 presents the results of the screening of options for Medmerry frontage (OUs 5A and 5B) and Table 2.5 for the East Wittering frontage (OU 6A). A tick was used to represent compliance and a cross to represent non compliance. When a tick and a cross appear together, it means that the option complies with at least half of the criteria.

Table 2.4: Screening of options for Medmerry Frontage Criteria 1-H 2-H 3-H 4-H 5-H 6-H 7-H 8- 9- 10- 11- 12-R /Options HR HR R RH Engineering/ ܂/ ܂܂ x ܂ x ܂ x ܂܂܂܂x Coastal proc. x Environment ܂ x x x x ܂/x x ܂/x ܂/x ܂܂/x ܂/x Economics ܂܂ x x x ܂ x ܂܂/x ܂܂܂ Higher Level ܂ x ܂܂܂܂܂܂ /x ܂/x ܂܂ X Plans Consultation ܂/x ܂/x x ܂/x ܂/x ܂/x ܂/x ܂/x ܂/x ܂/x ܂/x ܂/x Key: ܂ - compliance; X – non compliance; ܂/X – half compliance.

From Table 2.4, 2 options stand out has being preferable to the others for the Medmerry frontage, these are:

• Option 1(H) which entails continuing with existing shingle bank and timber groynes by maintenance, renewal and upgrading as necessary (beach regrading, recycling and recharge and possibly improved alignments); • Option 10(R) which entails the same as option 1(H) but retreat the line of defences to form a shallow embayment.

Table 2.5: Screening of options for East Wittering Frontage Criteria /Options 1-H 2-H 3-H 4-H 5-H 6-H Engineering/ Coastal proc. ܂ x ܂܂܂ ܂ Environment ܂ x ܂/x ܂܂܂ Economics ܂ x ܂܂܂ ܂ Higher Level Plans ܂܂܂܂ ܂ ܂ Consultation ܂܂/x ܂/x ܂/x ܂/x ܂/x Key: ܂ - compliance; X – non compliance; ܂/X – half compliance.

From Table 2.5, 1 option stands out has being preferable to the others for the East Wittering frontage, this is:

• Option 1(H) which entails continuing with existing concrete and timber sea wall, timber groynes and beach by maintenance, renewal and upgrading as necessary.

Although the original appraisal seemed to review all of the above options, it would not be practicable in this case study report to assess all of these options for each frontage. In addition, they do not necessarily constitute incremental options; they represent different ways of providing a standard of defence of 1 in 50 or 1 in 150 years return period.

In this context, it was decided to consider the options described in Table 2.6 for each of the management units. It was decided to take forward the preferred

12 Section2: Definition of objectives and management options option and assume that it can provide different/incremental standards of defence (1:20, 1:50 and 1:150) and assess it against the ‘do-nothing’ option. For the Medmerry frontage, Option 10 (R) was selected in order to consider management realignment issues.

Table 2.6 Description of options being considered for each management unit Options Description Medmerry Frontage ‘do-nothing’ Walk away and abandon all maintenance and repair to existing structures, allowing nature to take its course. Sustain 1:20 Continuing with existing shingle bank and timber groynes by maintenance, renewal and upgrading as necessary to achieve a 1 in 20 standard of defence, but retreat the line of defences up to 50m to form a shallow embayment. Improve 1:50 Continuing with existing shingle bank and timber groynes by maintenance, renewal and upgrading as necessary to achieve a 1 in 50 standard of defence, but retreat the line of defences up to 50m to form a shallow embayment. Improve + Continuing with existing shingle bank and timber groynes by maintenance, 1:150 renewal and upgrading as necessary to achieve a 1 in 150 standard of defence, but retreat the line of defences up to 50m to form a shallow embayment. East Wittering Frontage ‘do-nothing’ Walk away and abandon all maintenance and repair to existing structures, allowing nature to take its course. Sustain 1:50 Continue with existing concrete and timber sea wall, timber groynes and beach by maintenance, renewal and upgrading to a standard of 1 in 50 as necessary. Improve 1:150 Continue with existing concrete and timber sea wall, timber groynes and beach by maintenance, renewal and upgrading to a standard of 1 in 150 as necessary.

Section 2: Definition of objectives and management options 13 3. Structuring the problem

This section aims to break down the problem into its component parts, identifying the set of impacts and associated criteria that will be used to make the decision. In other words a screening exercise is carried out for the Pagham to East Head Coastal Protection Strategy.

3.1 Summary of the screening exercise

This screening exercise is used to determine (i) which categories are relevant and (ii) which categories will be appraised by assigning monetary value to impacts and which will be appraised by assigning a score to the impacts. Relevant categories are those where there is a difference in the impacts of the 4 options being appraised (do-nothing, sustain, improve and improve plus).

The screening exercise for the strategy was based on the following sources of information:

• Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy - main document; and • Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy - annexes

The detailed high level screening for both Medmerry and East Wittering Frontages is presented in Appendices B2.1 to this report - Appraisal Summary Table for Flood Management and Coastal Defence for High Level Screening (AST-FMDC-S) – Table 3.1 summarises the results of the screening exercise for both frontages.

The high level screening exercise highlighted the fact that the majority of the most significant impacts of the options for the strategy are related to economic assets, such as agricultural land for Medmerry and housing and commercial properties for East Wittering, and recreation and tourism activities in both frontages. Environmental issues are also important, in particular in what relates to physical habitats and natural processes.

The number of impact categories being assessed through monetary valuation is smaller than the number of impact categories being assessed through scoring. This is particularly the case for the East Wittering Frontage.

14 Section3: Structuring the problem Table 3.1 Table summarising the results in the screening exercise Project Name Pagham To East Head Coastal Defence Strategy Category Medmerry East Wittering Value Value Score Score Monetary Monetary Economic impacts Assets 99 Land use 99 Transport 9 Not relevant Business development 99 Environmental impacts Physical habitats 99 Water quality 9 Not relevant Water quantity Not relevant Not relevant Natural processes 99 Historical Environment 99 Landscape and visual amenity 99 Social impacts Recreation 99 Health and safety 99 Availability and accessibility of 99 services Equity Not relevant Not relevant Sense of community Not relevant Not relevant Cross-cutting impacts Policy Integration 99

Section 3: Structuring the problem 15 4. Cost of options

The costs considered for each of the options being assessed are detailed in Table 4.1 for the Medmerry frontage and in Table 4.2 for the East Wittering frontage.

The cost estimates were based on those given in the original strategy (Posford Duvivier, 2001), and adjusted to take into consideration other standards of protection. The costs estimates include implementation and maintenance of the scheme for the next 50 years.

Table 4.1 Cost estimates for the Medmerry Frontage Actions Description Cost Year 0 renew 50% 50 no. x 70m x £600 £2,100k groynes Year 0 major beach 100,000m3 x £17 £1,700k recharge Regular modest 5,000m3 x £17 x 15.762 (PV) £1,340k beach recharge Year 20 renew 50% 50 no. x 70m x £600 x 0.312 (PV) £655k groynes Year 30 renew 50% 50 no. x 70m x £600 x 0.174 (PV) £365k groynes Annual maintenance 4.10km x £10,000 x 15.762 (PV) £650k Annual inspections 4.10km x £1,500 x 15.762 (PV) £100k Modifications to land 2,200m x £250 £550k drainage Access arrangements 2,200m x £100 £220k Sub-Total £7,680k Contingencies at 10% £770k Planning and Engineering at 15% £1,150k Other consequential costs at 5% £390k Total £9,990k Confidence Limits ± 20% 1:150 year standard £9.0m to £13m Present Value Costs 1:50 year standard £8.0m to £12.0m 1:20 year standard £7.5m to £11m

16 Section 4: Cost of options Table 4.2 Cost estimates for the East Wittering Frontage Actions Description Cost Year 0 renew 50% 40 no. x 50m x £600 £1,200k groynes Year 0 major beach 200,000m3 x £17 £3,400k recharge Regular beach 2,000m3 x £17 x 15.762 (PV) £535k recharge Year 10 refurbish 50% 3,350m x 50% x 3.5m3 x £300 x £980k sea wall 0.558 (PV) Year 20 renew 50% 40 no. x 50m x £600 x 0.312 (PV) £375k groynes Year 30 refurbish 50% 3,350m x 50% x 3.5m3 x £300 x £305k sea wall 0.174 (PV) Annual maintenance 3.35km x £15,000 x 15.762 (PV) £790k Annual inspections 3.35km x £1,500 x 15.762 (PV) £80k Sub-Total £7,665k £765k Contingencies at 10%

£1,150k Planning & Engineering at 15%

Total £9,580k Confidence limits ± 15% Present value costs 1:150 year standard £8.0m to £11m 1:50 year standard £3.0m to £4.0m

Section 4: Cost of options 17 5. Assessment of impacts

5.1 Qualitative and quantitative assessment

The assessment followed a stepped approach, starting with the qualitative assessment of all impact categories and moving to the quantitative assessment whenever information was available.

5.2 Monetary valuation of impacts

All of the following information was obtained from the Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy – Appendix G Economic Appraisal (Posford Duvivier, 2001). We were provided with different revised versions of the economic assessment for the Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy. It was decided to use the original version of the assessment, because the information on it was more complete. Nonetheless, some assumptions have been made and these are noted in the text.

Benefits accruing from provision of defences (i.e. damages avoided) were subdivided into 4 categories:

• write-off benefits; • intermittent flooding after breach benefits; • overtopping benefits; and • erosion benefits.

5.2.1 Write-off benefits

Assets

The write-off flooding (inundation from the sea) protection benefits are the damages to the assets that would be written-off by being flooded under the 1:1 year event, following failure of defences.

For residential properties, those houses located in land that is below the 1:1 year return period water levels are considered to be flooded every year and therefore would no longer have any market value, i.e. are written-off. For the economic appraisal, the write-off value assigned to each property was based on the 1991 ‘middle value’ Council Tax band, supplied by the Arun District Council. In order to actualise these values, they were increased by 10% which, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, corresponds to the average increase in property prices from 1991 to 1997 in the whole of the UK.

18 Section 5: Assessment of impacts For commercial properties, as for residential properties, those premises located within the 1:1 year return period flood are written-off. The written-off cost of a commercial property corresponds to one half of the replacement value in £/m2, taken from Spon’s Architects’ and Builder’s Price Book (Spon & Spon, 1997). The reduction in replacement value is to cover depreciation since construction.

For significantly valued, isolated commercial property such as wastewater treatment works, the write-off benefit is capped at the cost of constructing a flood defence embankment around the asset.

For caravan parks, it was considered that caravans situated on land lying below 1:1 year flood contour can be relocated to another site and are therefore not written-off under the ‘do-nothing’ scenario. Instead a nominal sum of £2,000 has been assigned to each caravan to cover relocation expenses, as indicated as an appropriate upper limit by MAFF. Because, during consultation, the value of £2,000 was questioned by stakeholders, the value attributed to caravan relocation was used as a sensitivity testing parameter.

Land Use

Farmland flooded by salt water on annual basis would be unfit to support either grazing or arable crops. Such land is likely to become saltmarsh and therefore should be written-off as agricultural land. The write-off value assigned corresponds to the market value of the land (Nix (1998) average value), factored by 0.41.

In the assessment the value of benefits from land use are included under the asset category.

5.2.2 Intermittent flooding after breach

Assets

The intermittent flooding (inundation by the sea) protection benefits accruing from carrying coast protection works are derived from an assessment of the damages to the assets that would flood intermittently under the 1:1, 1:5, 1:20, 1:50 and 1:200 year events. These damages are related to the depth of flooding to each individual asset.

Using visual assessments of doorstep thresholds and figures extracted from Penning-Rowsell (1992 - Yellow Manual), updated to 1998 prices using the Retail Price Index, residential depth-related damages were calculated. There are also indirect costs of post-flooding costs in houses to be accounted for. Costs of heating were valued at £124 per household (Red Manual values

1 0.4 was the value referenced in the Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy. Although it is realised that this value should be 0.45, no changes were made to the end result. It was not thought relevant for the purpose of this report to make any modifications to the values given by Posford Duvivier (2001)

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 19 updated to 1998 prices). Dehumidifier costs were valued at £610 per property suffering from over 30cm of flooding.

For commercial properties, depth-damage data was extracted from a variety of sources including Parker et al. (1997 – Red Manual) and N’Jai et al. (1990 – FLAIR).

For caravans, a doorstep threshold flood depth for static caravans was assessed at 0.5m, and depth-damage data for prefabricated buildings from Penning-Rowsell (1992 - Yellow Manual) were used (in the absence of data for caravans) with the extraction of the irrelevant components.

Land use

The calculation of damages to agricultural land from intermittent flooding follow the procedure described in scenario III of PAG. An average value of £360/ha was calculated based on distribution of 70% arable land and 30% grazing land. Adjusted net margins were calculated from Nix (1998) values. As a result of crop rotation, a whole range of crops were assessed, which may not be representative of what is grown in the region at present.

Transport

Generally, local roads within the area will be flooded when the houses are flooded, hence traffic disruptions is likely to be small.

A section of the B2145 passes through low lying land which would be flooded in a 1:1 year event if defences of OU 5A/5B are allow to fail. If the road was regularly impassable by flooding it is likely that the road would be raised. Therefore, the benefits arising from its protection correspond to the cost of raising the low-lying section of the road.

Business development

According to Posford Duvivier (2001), the Red Manual notes that flooding of retail, distribution, office and leisure services is unlikely to generate significant indirect loss to the nation. Therefore this has not been assessed in monetary terms. They will, however, be considered in qualitative terms.

Accessibility and availability of services

As well as repair and cleaning costs to facilities/utilities, there are indirect costs if facilities are disrupted to consumers that have not been flooded. Consultation is on going regrading areas that are affected.

The value of emergency services was estimated to be £179 per property, according to figures in the Red Manual updated to 1998 prices.

20 Section 5: Assessment of impacts 5.2.3 Erosion protection benefits

The erosion protection benefits accruing from carrying out coast protection works are derived from an assessment of the economic value of extension to the life of, or delay in, loss of the erosion-prone properties for a period of time equal to the life of the works (Penning-Rowsell et al., 1992).

For residential properties, the value assigned to each property was based on the 1991 ‘middle value’ council tax band, supplied by the Arun District Council. In order to actualise these values, they were increased by 10%, which, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders, corresponds to the average increase in property prices from 1991 to 1997 in the whole of the UK. A distance of 5m was adopted as a minimum acceptable safety margin between the top edge of the eroded bank, cliff or slope face following defence failure, and the building in question. The property is written-off should this safety margin be reduced by further erosion. In case of soft defences, the safety margin has been assessed from the landward edge of the active beach.

For commercial properties, the value assigned corresponds to one half of the replacement value in £/m2, taken from Spon’s Architects’ and Builder’s Price Book (Spon & Spon, 1997). The same safety margin as for residential properties is used.

5.2.4 Overtopping damages

Overtopping damages have been calculated using water volumes derived from modelling, and route from topographic data. The intermittent overtopping flooding zone is defined as the area which would flood in a storm with severity 1:200 years or less, without breaching of defences. For certain OU with soft defences overtopping damages have not been considered, because if significant overtopping was to occur then a breach would also occur.

For residential properties lying within the overtopping flooding zone, figures from Penning-Rowsell et al.(1992) were used in the calculation of the damages. For commercial properties, depth-related data was extracted from Parker et al. (1997 – Red Manual) and N’Jai et al. (1990 – FLAIR).

5.2.5 Monetary valuation of intangible benefits

For the valuation of intangible benefits Posford Duvivier (2001), grouped Operational Units together, depending of the environmental resources present in the units. For the OUs being assessed in this case study, OU 5B has been assessed separately, whilst OUs 5A and 6A have been grouped together with OUs 4B and 7A. For the purpose of this economic appraisal the benefits were divided between the four OUs, have as base the % of coastline they occupy. So for example, OU 5A occupies 6 % of the coastline whilst OU 6A occupies 56%, which means that OU 5A will accrue 6% of the intangible benefits whilst OU 6A will accrue 56%.

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 21 Recreation

Operational units 5A and 6A

Deterioration of beach, groynes and seawall will occur over the next 5 years. By year 10 the defence would have collapsed and progressive erosion would have taken place.

The deterioration of the beach will affect visitor enjoyment. The loss of enjoyment is calculated using the Hastings case study from Penning-Rowsell et al. (1992 – Yellow Manual). This value is separated in different values for different levels of beach, seawall and groyne deterioration. The total (central case) benefit from enjoyment from the beach is £7,584,250 (i.e. £455,055 for OU 5A and £4,247,180 for OU 6A).

In addition, it is estimated that the public slipway will deteriorate at year 5, to the extent that the structure will be deemed unsafe. The recreational value of the slipway is calculated as the cost of replacing the slipway. It is estimated that the cost of replacing the slipway is £100,000 (Posford Duvivier Environment, 1999), and thereafter it will require reconstruction every 10 years at £35,000. The total (central case) cost is £104,750.

Operational Unit 5B

The shingle bank will breach within one year, and regular flooding of the land behind will occur. Groynes will also deteriorate over the next 5 years. The shingle bank will cease to be an effective defence after 5 years. After 10 years the shingle bank will not exist and saltmarsh and mudflats will become established.

The deterioration of the beach will affect visitor enjoyment. The loss of enjoyment is calculated using the Hastings case study from Penning-Rowsell et al. (1992 – Yellow Manual). This value is separated in different values for different levels of beach, seawall and groyne deterioration. However, no value for loss of enjoyment is used after year 10 because of the significant changes in habitat and the lack of data to account for this.

The annual payments for creation of saltmarsh in the Habitat Scheme in Essex (Mouchel, 1997) are used as the proxy value for creation of habitat. The values are:

• £525/ha for creation of saltmarsh on land currently in arable production; • £448/ha for creation of saltmarsh on land which is currently set-aside; and • £195/ha for land currently in permanent grass.

It is estimated that in the breach scenario, a total of 408ha will flood annually, and an additional 274ha will flood intermittently. Calculations were made of the area of grassland and arable land from which saltmarsh (and mudflat) will be created. The total (central case) recreational benefits are £103,000.

22 Section 5: Assessment of impacts 5.3 Scoring of impacts

Scoring of impacts across the different options and their justification is presented in tabular format below. Table 5.1 shows the scores given for the Medmerry frontage and Table 5.2 the scores for the East Wittering frontage.

Both the ‘Zero to 100’ and ‘relative to 100’ scoring systems were applied to this case study. For each impact category, under the option that scores the lowest two alternative scores are provided, separated by a dash, one being the score under the ‘Zero to 100’ systems and the other being the score under the ‘relative to 100’.

Table 5.1: Table summarising scores for the Medmerry Frontage Project Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A name and 5B). (scores given here are not weighted).

Category Scores justification 3: I 2: S 4: I+ 1: DN Option Option Option Option Economic impacts Business development includes both impacts on regeneration/development and competitiveness. The ‘do-nothing’ option will have an impact on development and competitiveness by loss of tourism and recreation facilities, opportunities and consequently a loss of jobs. These conditions would be retained if any of the hold the line options were to be selected. According to Chichester Council, in the District circa 30% of employment relates to distribution, hotels and restaurants and to agriculture and fishing. The ‘do-something’ options would prevent Business the loss of tourism and recreation as they would at least 0/30 100 100 100 development sustain the situation as it is today. There would be periodical flooding, but the frequency of events is considered to be too small to influence businesses significantly. Using these assumptions and numbers as a base for scoring one could say that ‘do-something’ options would score 100 whilst ‘do-nothing’ scores 30 (or 0 in a ‘0 to 100’ scoring system). The 0 given to ‘do- nothing’ may be overestimating the impacts of ‘do- nothing’, since not all jobs and businesses are lost and the new situation may create, in the long term, new businesses and recreation opportunities. Environmental impacts There will be loss of a portion of Bracklesham Bay SSSI (grazing marsh), and potential creation of an area of saltmarsh and/or mudflat. This is the same for all of the options, except that for the do-nothing where the area affected would be much bigger (being all of the grazing marsh area within the perimeter formed by the Broad Physical Rife and the coast line). So, the physical habitats should 0/72 100 100 100 habitats be subdivided into two subcategories, grazing marsh and saltmarsh. The grazing marsh is classified as an SSSI and is the only area of grazing marsh present in the whole of the strategy area. Saltmarsh is also an important habitat, being more natural and respectful of natural coastal processes. Because it is difficult to judge on which of the habitats is best, but taking into

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 23 Table 5.1: Table summarising scores for the Medmerry Frontage Project Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A name and 5B). (scores given here are not weighted).

Category Scores justification 3: I 2: S 4: I+ 1: DN Option Option Option Option consideration that grazing marsh is an SSSI and unique in this area, grazing marsh should be given slightly more importance than saltmarsh. In order to differentiate between the subcategories a weight of 0.6 will be given to the grazing marsh and a weight of 0.4 will be attributed to the saltmarsh. For grazing marsh the ‘do- something’ options score 100 because they are the ones that protect the biggest area of the habitat. In relation to the ‘do-something’, under ‘do-nothing’ 88% more area of grazing marsh is lost, so a score of 12 is given to this option. For the saltmarsh subcategory the exactly opposite will happen, so the ‘do-something’ options will score 12 whilst the ‘do-nothing’ option will score 100. If these scores are pondered with the weights referred to above then the ‘do-something’ options will score 100 whilst the ‘do-nothing’ will score 72 overall. Using a ‘0 to 100’ scoring system the ‘do-nothing’ option would be given a score of 0. Although this is the worst option, the 0 does not reflect the gain in saltmarsh, i.e. the proportionality between options is not being respected. The impact on water quality from a wastewater treatment plant and a sewage treatment plant will be considered the same. The differences between the various options are (i) the improve and improve + options do not create water quality impacts, whilst the ‘do-nothing’ and sustain options do, and (ii) in the sustain option the sewage works will be flooded less frequently and to a lesser extent since it is located further in land. In addition, if one considers that the water quality will only be threatened once every 20 years under the sustain option, the time between two flood events will be sufficient for the quality of the water to be re-established to its previous state, making the impact of a temporary nature. The score of 100 will be given to, the improve and Water quality 0/1 80 100 100 improve + options since they perform better in terms of water quality. ‘do-nothing’ will be always the worst option, since the waste water treatment plant would be flooded once every year, giving a score of 1. The sustain option, although not ideal, will not create significant impacts therefore it will be given the score of 80 (100 – 20), so that it will be slightly different/worst than the improve options, but significantly better than the do- nothing. In this case, because there is little information on the actual change in water quality dues to a flood event it is difficult to accurately measure the differences between the different options. In these cases a ‘0 to 100’ scoring system becomes much easier to apply, since the worst option is always 0. Under do-nothing the coastal processes would revert to their ‘natural’ state quite quickly, leading to landward Natural 100 56 26 0/1 migration of the shingle barrier and beach, and increased processes sediment supply to adjacent areas. For the do-something options the same process would occur but in a managed

24 Section 5: Assessment of impacts Table 5.1: Table summarising scores for the Medmerry Frontage Project Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A name and 5B). (scores given here are not weighted).

Category Scores justification 3: I 2: S 4: I+ 1: DN Option Option Option Option fashion and to a smaller extent since the re-alignment of the coastline would be smaller. Another aspect to consider is that the processes under ‘do-nothing’ are more sustainable in the long term, whilst under the ‘do- something’ options they would still have to be managed and, depending on the level of the standard of defence, this would become harder as the standard is increased. Given that there are no quantitative measurements that can be associated with these consequences it is very difficult to assign scores. Useful data would be the different erosion/accretion rates under the different options, or the rates of landward movement under each option. We do know that under the ‘do-something’ options, only 56% of the coastline would revert to a more natural equilibrium and using this fact for scoring, ‘do- nothing’ would score 100 whilst the ‘do-something’ options would score 56. Taking account of the different standard of defences, the scores would be 100 for ‘do- nothing’, 56 for sustain, 26 for improve (56-30 (50-20)) and 0/1 for improve +. The area affected by erosion and hence impact on the historical interest was used to differentiate between the magnitude of the impacts across the options. We know that under the ‘do-nothing’ the whole of the area of the frontage will suffer the impacts of increased erosion. Under the ‘do-something’ options, the frontage will be protected from erosion by the groyne fields except for where the shoreline will be realigned. This area corresponds to 69% of the total area of the frontage. In Historical 0/69 100 100 100 this context, the ‘do-something’ options will have less of environment an impact, and therefore will be attributed a score of 100. The ‘do-nothing’ option, will impact on an additional 31% of the area in comparison to the ‘do-something’ options, therefore it will score 69. Using a ‘0 to 100’ scoring system the ‘do-nothing’ option would be given a score of 0. Although this is the worst option, the 0 does not reflect the fact that only part of the heritage interest is lost, i.e. the proportionality between options is not being respected. The ‘do-nothing’ option would produce a radical change to the landscape from a managed amenity beach to a more natural coastal landscape. The ‘do-something’ options would maintain and potentially improve the beach levels, but the landscape itself would not be improved due to the presence of groyne fields and Landscape potentially visually intrusive defences that could spoil it. and visual 50 100 70 10/0 However, landscape and amenity also depend on the amenity perception of local people, so that for example a big change in landscape could be seen as a negative even if made it more ‘natural’. If one considers that a more natural landscape is rendered more important and more sustainable than a managed one, then the ‘do-nothing’ option would score 100 and Improve + would score the

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 25 Table 5.1: Table summarising scores for the Medmerry Frontage Project Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A name and 5B). (scores given here are not weighted).

Category Scores justification 3: I 2: S 4: I+ 1: DN Option Option Option Option lowest, i.e.0/1. In order to take into account peoples perception and the fact that the higher the standard of defence generally greater is the impact, the following scores were assigned, 100 for the sustain option because it maintains the landscape as it is but it is not in its natural state, 70 for improve because it maintains the landscape but is more intrusive and less ‘natural’ than sustain, 50 for ‘do-nothing’ because it totally changes the landscape but respects the natural processes and sustainability criteria, and finally 10 for Improve + because it is the least ‘natural’ and the most intrusive option. In categories such as this one, where different aspects of the same issue are at stake, it is preferable to have the category subdivided into subcategories, where scoring is made easier, weights assigned to these subcategories and an overall score of the category be calculated. It is important to note that this exercise may create opportunities for double counting (within this category or between this and other categories) and attention should be paid to this factor. The weights assigned at this stage should be related to policy and decision-making priorities rather than local stakeholder interests. Social impacts Health and safety impacts would be most affected by the risk of flooding to the population, stress and anxiety and the risk caused by deteriorating defences. The first issue will relate mostly with frequency of flooding whilst the second will relate to the management or abandonment of Health and the defences. This then means that do-nothing would be 0/1 80 100 100 safety the worst option (most frequent flooding and no management of defences) scoring 1, the sustain option would score 80 and both improve options would score 100 (it is considered that in terms of health and safety both improve and improve + will have the same small impacts) Cross-cutting impacts For this category the option that scores the highest is the one that is in agreement with remaining policies, i.e., all of the ‘do-something’ options because they are in line with the SMP policy of hold the line. ‘do-nothing’ on the other hand is not so it will score 0 or 1. This category is fairly easy to score since during this stage of the Policy appraisal the practitioner should have a very good idea 0/1 100 100 100 Integration of major policies in the study area. This category can be subdivided into subcategories, such as local, regional national policies, to which an importance weight can be given. The inclusion of such a category in the appraisal can function as a great tool for policy integration, in particular if the category is given a significant weight further on in the analysis.

26 Section 5: Assessment of impacts Table 5.2: Table Summarising Scores for the East Wittering. Project Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy East Wittering Frontage (OU Name 6A). (scores given here are not weighted). Option Option Option Category Scores Justification 1: DN 2: S 3: I Economic Impacts Because the land behind the defences is raised, the losses of recreation and tourism facilities due to ‘do- nothing’ and its impacts on business development would be small. Erosion, under ‘do-nothing’, can have a bigger impact but it would be in the long term. Also, Business business in this urban area will tend to be more 0/70 100 100 development diversified and therefore the impacts on one sector will be absorbed to an extent by other sectors of the local economy. For this reason, ‘do-something’ options will score 100 and ‘do-nothing’ will score 70 (based on employment estimates from the Chichester District Council) Environmental impacts ‘do-nothing’ option would threaten 100% of the area that Physical 0/1 100 100 is designated as an SSSI. This area would be protected habitats by the ‘do-something’ options. Under the ‘do-nothing’ option the coastline would naturally retreat approximately 75m in 50 years. Under Natural 100 0/1 0/1 any of the ‘do-something’ options the coastline would be processes protected against erosion, and the natural processes would slow down considerably. The area affected by erosion and hence impact on the historical interest was used to differentiate between the magnitude of the impacts across the options. Under the Historical 0/1 100 100 ‘do-nothing’ option the whole of the area of the frontage Environment will suffer the impacts of increased erosion. Under the ‘do-something’ options, the frontage will be protected from erosion by the groyne fields. Erosion under ‘do-nothing’ could lead to significant reduction in the beach levels and therefore to the deterioration of landscape. Under the ‘do-something’ options this would not happen, however the landscape and amenity of the seafront would be disturbed due to Landscape the visually intrusive nature of the hard defences, in and visual 0/33 100 66 particular in the case of the improve option. It was amenity decided that both of these impacts on landscape are significant but that the loss of the beach would be more significant than the visual impact caused by the groyne fields. Hence the sustain option was given a score of 100, whilst the improve option was given a score of 66 and the ‘do-nothing’ a score of 33. Social impacts Health and safety impacts would be most affected by the risk of flooding to the population, stress and anxiety and the risk caused by deteriorating defences. The first issue will relate mostly to frequency of flooding whilst the second will relate to the management or Health and abandonment of the defences. This then means that 0/1 100 100 safety do-nothing would be the worst option (most frequent flooding and no management of defences) scoring 1, the sustain option and the improve options would score 100. The standards of defence offered by the sustain and improve options would have insignificant differences in relation to health and safety impacts.

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 27 Table 5.2: Table Summarising Scores for the East Wittering. Project Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy East Wittering Frontage (OU Name 6A). (scores given here are not weighted). Option Option Option Category Scores Justification 1: DN 2: S 3: I

Cross-cutting impacts For this category the option that scores the highest is the one that is in agreement with remaining policies, i.e., Policy 0/1 100 100 all of the ‘do-something’ options because they are in line Integration with the SMP policy of hold the line. ‘do-nothing’ on the other hand is not so it will score 0 or 1.

28 Section 5: Assessment of impacts 6. Weighting and comparison of options

6.1 Source of weights

6.2 Comparison of options

6.2.1 Medmerry

Table 6.1 provides a summary table of monetary costs and benefits and scores for the Medmerry Management Unit.

Analysis of the preferred option starts with the option with the highest benefit- cost ratio, which, in this case is Option 4: Improve +. The Benefit-Cost Ratio is (robustly) above 1. Option 4 also represents a move above the indicative standard and, as there are no ‘next’ options, according to FCDPAG3, this is the preferred option on the basis of monetary costs and benefits. The CRWG has been applied to detect the level of potential intangible benefit from the option to ensure primarily that there are not large intangible dis-benefits that could potentially offset the monetary benefits and change the decision. The calculations from the CRWG suggest that the intangible benefits incremental to the ‘do-nothing’ option are all positive and of the order of between 31 to 87.4. As such, there are no intangible dis-benefits that could change the decision context. Option 4: Improve + is the preferred option.

Section 6: Weighting and comparison of options 29 6.1: Summary table of costs and benefits – Medmerry Option 2: Option 1: Option 3: Sustain Option 4: Improve + (1:150) Do-Nothing Improve (1:50) (1:20) PV costs from estimates Optimism bias adjustment Total PV costs 7,500,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 for appraisal PVc PV damage PVd - - PV damage avoided PV assets Pva - - - PV asset protection - - - benefits Total PV benefits 14,151,00 16,676,000 20,834,000 PVb 0 Net Present

Value NPV Average 1.8868 2.0845 2.3148889 benefit/cost ratio Incremental 5.05 4.158 benefit/cost ratio Required incremental B/C ratio Required additional - benefits to meet criterion Min Ave Max Weighted Score 71.2 90.7 97.7 (CRWG) Scored intangible incremental benefit of 31.0 68.2 87.4 moving to the next option (CRWG) Justified Justified Justified without without without Comments N/A N/A N/A Extra Extra Extra benefit benefit benefit Implied additional benefits per N/A N/A N/A - - - point (k) to meet criterion

30 Section 6: Weighting and comparison of options 6.2.2 East Wittering

Table 6.2 provides a summary table of monetary costs and benefits and scores for the East Wittering Management Unit.

Analysis of the preferred option starts with the option with the highest benefit- cost ratio, which, in this case is Option 2: Sustain.

The next highest option is Option 3: Improve which must attain an incremental benefit cost ratio of 3 to be the preferred option. On the basis of monetary costs and benefits, the option only achieves an incremental benefit-cost ratio of 0.03 and therefore would require some £14,870,000 of intangible benefit to achieve the criterion. However, calculations with the CRWG generator reveal that the Improve Option cannot achieve an incremental intangible benefit with any set of weights. Thus, it can be concluded that, as there are no intangible benefits and the option does not attain a high enough incremental benefit-cost ratio on the basis of monetary costs and benefits, Option 3: Improve is not justified.

The preferred option is Option 2: Sustain.

Section 6: Weighting and comparison of options 31 6.2: Summary table of costs and benefits – East Wittering Option 1: Option 2: Option 3: Improve (1:150) Do-Nothing Sustain (1:50) PV costs from

estimates Optimism bias

adjustment Total PV costs for 3,000,000 8,000,000 appraisal PVc PV damage PVd 19,034,000 - PV damage avoided PV assets Pva - - PV asset protection - - benefits Total PV benefits PVb 18,500,000 18,630,000 Net Present Value NPV Average benefit/cost 6.17 2.33 ratio Incremental benefit/cost 0.03 ratio Required incremental 3 B/C ratio Required additional benefits to meet 14,870,000 criterion Min Ave Max Weighted score 70.8 91.6 98.2 (CRWG) Scored intangible incremental benefit of -7.9 -2.1 -0.4 moving to the next option (CRWG) Not Not Not Comments N/A N/A Justified Justified Justified

Implied additional Not Not Not benefits per point (k) to N/A N/A Justified Justified Justified meet criterion

32 Section 6: Weighting and comparison of options 7. References

Posford Duvivier (1999): Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy – Main Report, report produced for the Environment Agency, Chichester District Council and Arum District Council, September 1999.

Posford Duvivier (1999): Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy – Supporting Document, report produced for the Environment Agency, Chichester District Council and Arum District Council, September 1999.

Posford Duvivier (2001): Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy – Main Report, report produced for the Environment Agency, Chichester District Council and Arum District Council, January 2001.

Posford Duvivier (2001): Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy – Supporting Document, report produced for the Environment Agency, Chichester District Council and Arum District Council, January 2001.

Royal Haskoning (2001): Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy – Economic Update, report produced for the Environment Agency, May 2003.

Section 7: References 33 Appendix B2.1:

Appraisal summary table for high level screening for Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – Medmerry and East Wittering Frontages

34 Appendix B2.1 Table B2.1.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – high level screening Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy – Management Unit 3: Project name Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A and 5B). Assumptions: The high level screening will correspond to the ‘do-nothing’ option. Impact category Impact Impact details Qualitative Monetary likely? or valuation (Y/N) quantitative assessment Economic impacts There is potential for total loss of : • residential properties (20); • caravans and chalets (1806); and • commercial properties (56);

There is potential for intermittent flooding of: • residential properties (277); • caravans and chalets (260); and Assets Y • commercial properties (95 3 comprising largely of farm outbuildings – will be considered under land use); • flooding of Sidlesham waste water treatment works

There is also risk of losing cliff top properties due to 50 years of erosion (18). • potential loss of 408 hectares of farmland; • commercial properties (95 Land use Y comprising largely of farm 3 outbuildings); • loss of 14 ha of land due to 50 years of erosion • potential intermittent flooding of the B2145 resulting in sever disruptions Transport Y and inconvenience to residents and 3 businesses • loss of amenities and businesses can potentially affect the business development of the area, with losses of jobs; Business Y development • frequent flooding may hindered the 3 development of business due to loss of visitors as well as disruption due to flooding of the main road to the area

Appendix B2.1 35 Table B2.1.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – high level screening Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy – Management Unit 3: Project name Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A and 5B). Assumptions: The high level screening will correspond to the ‘do-nothing’ option. Impact category Impact Impact details Qualitative Monetary likely? or valuation (Y/N) quantitative assessment Environmental impacts • on going erosion of low cliff and foreshore (designated geological SSSI for its exposure of Pleistocene raised beach and estuarine sediments); • flooding/inundation can lead to loss of Bracklesham Bay SSSI grazing marsh; potential loss of the grazing marsh Physical habitats Y • habitat that is part of the 3 Bracklesham Bay SSSI due to overtopping of the shingle ridge; • potential creation of coastal habitats behind the shingle ridge (including saltmarsh, intertidal mudflats, coastal lagoons and brackish grassland; • potential loss of vegetated shingle • potential impact to water quality due Water quality Y to flooding of waste water treatment 3 plant; Water quantity N • change in the alignment of shoreline would lead to alterations Natural Y of the tidal regime which in turn processes 3 could result in increased erosion of OUs 4b and 6a; potential loss of archaeological Historical • Y interest (artefacts within cliff environment 3 sediments • potential loss of rough grazing/amenity land of the top of Landscape and the cliff in the long term; Y 3 visual amenity • potential loss of amenity of the beach due to erosion and overtopping Social impacts • long term erosion could lead to loss of cliff top footpath; • breach could result in cessation of Recreation Y direct access between Selsey and 33 East Wittering; • potential disruption of the footpath network; • gradual deterioration of groynes and Health and safety Y sheet pile wall poses and health and safety issue;

36 Appendix B2.1 Table B2.1.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – high level screening Pagham to East Head Coastal Defence Strategy – Management Unit 3: Project name Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A and 5B). Assumptions: The high level screening will correspond to the ‘do-nothing’ option. Impact category Impact Impact details Qualitative Monetary likely? or valuation (Y/N) quantitative assessment Availability and • the availability and accessibility to accessibility of Y services may be disrupted due to 3 services flooding of major road; Equity N Sense of N community Cross-cutting impacts not in line with the preferred option Policy integration Y • selected by the SMP 3

Appendix B2.1 37 Table A.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – high level screening Pagham to East Head |Coastal Defence Strategy – Assessment Unit 6: East Project Name Wittering (OU 6A). Assumptions: The high level screening will correspond to the ‘do-nothing’ option. Impact Impact Impact details Qualitative Monetary category likely? or Valuation (Y/N) Quantitative Assessment Economic impacts There is potential for total loss of: • residential properties (4); and • caravans and chalets (299). There is potential for flooding due to overtopping of 14 residential Assets Y properties. 3

There is also risk of losing 150 residential properties due to 50 years of erosion (assumes immediate wall failure in year 0). potential loss of 4 hectares of Land use Y • farmland; 3 Transport N • loss of amenities and businesses can potentially affect the business development of the area, with losses of jobs; Business Y development • frequent flooding may hindered the 3 development of business due to loss of visitors as well as disruption due to flooding of the main road to the area Environmental impacts • long-term erosion could lead to loss of part of the Bracklesham Bay SSSI; Physical Y habitats • there will be an increased sediment 3 transport rate to the west (with potential beneficial impacts in OU 7A, 7B and 8A); Water quality N Water quantity N Natural increased erosion due to groyne Y • Processes failure and eventual sea wall failure 3 Historical potential loss of archaeological Y • Environment interest 3 Landscape and Y • erosion can lead to loss of beach visual amenity 3

38 Appendix B2.1 Table A.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – high level screening Pagham to East Head |Coastal Defence Strategy – Assessment Unit 6: East Project Name Wittering (OU 6A). Assumptions: The high level screening will correspond to the ‘do-nothing’ option. Impact Impact Impact details Qualitative Monetary category likely? or Valuation (Y/N) Quantitative Assessment Social impacts • reduction in upper beach levels would affect beach access; Recreation Y 3 • potential loss of promenade, footpath and slipway. • potential loss of life and injuries due to flooding; Health and Y safety • potential impacts due to 3 deterioration of groynes and sea wall. Availability and accessibility of N services Equity N Sense of N community Cross-cutting impacts Policy N integration

Appendix B2.1 39 Appendix B2.2:

Appraisal summary table for main assessment – MA-AST for Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – Medmerry Frontage

40 Appendix B2.2 Table B2.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 3: Project name Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A and 5B). Description of ‘do-nothing’ option option Description of Shingle beach and shingle banks with timber groynes fronting mostly area affected by low lying arable and pasture land option Impact Qualitative description of Quantitative assessment category impacts of impacts (no. units/monetary) value Score Impact Monetary likely? (Y/N)

Economic impacts In the long term, there is the Write-off of (1:1 return potential of loss of residential period): properties to the east of the OU • 20 residential 5A frontage as the cliff line properties; retreated landward. • 1806 caravans and chalets; and In addition, in OU 5B, tidal • 56 commercial inundation would potentially result properties; in damage and eventually loss of some residential properties and Intermittent flooding of: commercial/tourism facilities, • 277 residential including West Sands/White properties; Horse/Greenlawns complex and • 260 caravans and its amenity buildings and Sussex chalets; and Beach Holiday Village, and a • 95 commercial sewage treatment works situated properties (will be Assets Y in land. Also, there are some considered under land residential houses to the east of use); the frontage that could be at risk • flooding of Sidlesham

from erosion. waste water treatment Damages £21m works. Outflanking could also result in loss of assets located in OU 6A Erosion of: and in the North-Western end of • 18 cliff top properties OU 4B (Selsey West Beach). Assuming that soft defences have no residual life: Write-of value = £17,875,064; Intermittent Flooding = £1,971,167; Erosion = £1,336,363; Total = £21,183,194

Appendix B2.2 41 Table B2.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 3: Project name Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A and 5B). Description of ‘do-nothing’ option option Description of Shingle beach and shingle banks with timber groynes fronting mostly area affected by low lying arable and pasture land option Impact Qualitative description of Quantitative assessment category impacts of impacts (no. units/monetary) value Score Impact Monetary likely? (Y/N)

In the short term, the productivity of a large area of grade 3a and 3b Write-off of: agricultural land and farm building • 408 ha of farmland for in OU 5B would be affected due to cereal crop and grazing; periodic tidal inundation, and eventually leading to its loss. • commercial properties (95 Land use Y There is also potential for loss of comprising largely of farm land due to erosion. In addition, outbuildings); large areas within caravan parks

such as West Sands, Black Horse Erosion of: included in assets and Selsey Country Club and Sussex Beach Holiday Village, • 14 ha of farmland. among others, would be lost.

Intermittent flooding of the B2145 Benefits have been capped resulting in several disruptions and by the cost of raising 900m Transport Y inconvenience to residents and of the B2145 out of the included businesses. write-off area. in assets

The flooding of the B2145 can result in severe disruptions and inconvenience to residents and businesses. In addition, with large Business areas of land being flooded and Y 0/30 development tourism facilities and accommodation being written-off it is like that frequent flooding will have a significant impact on the local economy. Environmental impacts In OU 5A – Medmerry Cliffs:In the In OU 5A – Medmerry Cliffs: short term, there is potential for on the rate of erosion is going erosion of low cliff and estimated at 1.1 m/year for foreshore (designated geological this area, which means that SSSI) and continued supply of in 50 years the cliff could sediment to the West. In the long retreated a total of 55 m. Physical term, erosion would result in loss Y In OU 5B – Medmerry: 0/72 habitats of more of the rough grazing/amenity land. In a breach scenario, circa 400 ha of agricultural land In OU 5B – Medmerry: In the short would be flooded annually term, overtopping of the shingle (240 ha of arable land and ridge can lead to loss of part of the 160 ha of grassland) and Bracklesham Bay SSSI grazing turned into saltmarsh and/or

42 Appendix B2.2 Table B2.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 3: Project name Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A and 5B). Description of ‘do-nothing’ option option Description of Shingle beach and shingle banks with timber groynes fronting mostly area affected by low lying arable and pasture land option Impact Qualitative description of Quantitative assessment category impacts of impacts (no. units/monetary) value Score Impact Monetary likely? (Y/N)

marsh habitat. Also, there are mudflat in the long term. significant areas of vegetated shingle in this frontage; however, much of it has now been lost due to coastal defence works. In the medium-long term there could be significant ecological gains with the creation of coastal habitats behind the shingle ridge (saltmarsh and mudflats). There are also impacts on the notable saltmarsh area occurring behind the bank along the Bracklesham Bay Frontage (Broad Rife), where regular saline inundation occurs. An area of approximately 50ha of coastal grazing marsh occurring behind the shingle ridge just to the north of Broad Rife (and part of the Bracklesham SSSI) would also be threatened. This area is locally important for breeding waders such as redshank and lapwing. The grassland support good numbers of breeding skylark, meadow pipit and occasional yellow wagtail. The dyke system (Broad Rife) supports an impoverished flora dominated by common reed. Also, if there is a roll back of the shingle ridge the geological interest of the area can be maintained, but if there is a major and permanent breach the existing geological interest could be lost, but new exposures could be revealed. There is the potential for impact to water quality due to flooding of Water quality Y 0/1 wastewater treatment plant in OU5B. Water N quantity

Appendix B2.2 43 Table B2.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 3: Project name Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A and 5B). Description of ‘do-nothing’ option option Description of Shingle beach and shingle banks with timber groynes fronting mostly area affected by low lying arable and pasture land option Impact Qualitative description of Quantitative assessment category impacts of impacts (no. units/monetary) value Score Impact Monetary likely? (Y/N)

The change in the alignment of shoreline could lead to alterations of the tidal regime which in turn could result in increased erosion of OUs 4B and 6A. Also, there is Natural the potential for the acceleration of Y 100 Processes foreshore erosion due to sea level rise and increased wave activity, and release of increase quantities of sediment into the transport regime. In addition, potential for the creation of a tidal inlet. Potential loss of archaeological Historical interest (artefacts within cliff Y 0/69 Environment sediments) due to increased erosion. In the long term, there is potential for loss of rough grazing/ amenity land in the top of Medmerry cliff Landscape (accounted for under physical and visual Y habitats), as well as potential loss 50 amenity of amenity of the beach due to erosion and overtopping (loss of beach amenity is accounted for under recreation).

44 Appendix B2.2 Table B2.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 3: Project name Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A and 5B). Description of ‘do-nothing’ option option Description of Shingle beach and shingle banks with timber groynes fronting mostly area affected by low lying arable and pasture land option Impact Qualitative description of Quantitative assessment category impacts of impacts (no. units/monetary) value Score Impact Monetary likely? (Y/N)

Social Impacts In OU 5A, in the long term, OU 5A: 6.2% of £7,689,000 erosion could lead to loss of cliff = £477,000 top footpath. The beach will also This value for damages deteriorate which together with considers the value of degraded defences and loss of enjoyment of the beach access will lead to loss of using values from the recreation value. Yellow Manual and the In OU 5B, the existing footpath Hastings case study network would be disrupted and (Penning Rowsell et al., would require re-routing. There 1992). In the original would also be cessation of access strategy the value between Selsey and East calculated applied to OUs Recreation Y Wittering. There is also potential 4B, 5A, 6A and 7A. For the for increased visual impact due to purpose of this appraisal deterioration of defences. the total value of enjoyment was divided by the Damages £0.58m percentage of shoreline belonging to each OU. OU 5B: The total value of damages for recreation is £103,000, and they include value of enjoyment and value of creation of saltmarsh and mudflat. Increase in the risk to life and injury to visitors and local population due to overtopping and Health and breaching of defences. Also, the Y 0/1 safety gradual deterioration of groynes and sea wall can potentially pose a health and safety impact to visitors and local population.

Appendix B2.2 45 Table B2.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 3: Project name Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A and 5B). Description of ‘do-nothing’ option option Description of Shingle beach and shingle banks with timber groynes fronting mostly area affected by low lying arable and pasture land option Impact Qualitative description of Quantitative assessment category impacts of impacts (no. units/monetary) value Score Impact Monetary likely? (Y/N)

The availability and accessibility to services may be disrupted due to flooding of major B2145 road. Also, frequent inundation could lead to disruption in smaller local roads and street as well as businesses and public services. The value of emergency Availability It is likely that emergency services services was estimated to and be £179 per property, Y may be required for coping with accessibility breaching of defences and severe according to figures in the of services flooding. In addition, cleaning Red Manual updated to

services will also be required for 1998 prices. included in asset recuperating from the flood during and after the event. However, because Medmerry frontage is mainly a rural area, these impacts were considered to be insignificant for this frontage. Equity N Sense of N community Cross-cutting impacts The ‘do-nothing’ option is not in Policy Y line with the preferred option 0/1 integration selected by the SMP.

46 Appendix B2.2 Table B2.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 3: Project name Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A and 5B). Description of Sustain 1:20 – Retreat the existing of defences landward up to 50m, option widen beach crest and construct new groyne field. Description of area Shingle beach and shingle banks with timber groynes fronting mostly affected by option low lying arable and pasture land

Impact Quantitative assessment Impact Qualitative description of likely? of impacts category impacts (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary value

Economic impacts The majority of the assets in this frontage would be protected from a 1:20 year return period flood, except that part of the waste water Damages = £6,500,000 treatment works would still be Damages Assets Y Benefits (damages within the risk area. £6.5m avoided) = £14,500,000 However, due to realignment of the defences an area at the front of one of the caravan parks would be lost. The majority of the farmland within the flood risk area would be protected by the 1:20 standard of defence. There Approximately 1/3 of the would still be infrequent farmland would still be at flooding of some areas and included Land use Y risk from flooding. potential for some loss of land in assets due to erosion at the tips of the Included in the assets frontage. In addition, some category. area of agricultural land would be lost due to realignment of defences. Most of the B2145 would be protected from 1:20 flood events. However, intermittent flooding would still be a reality Included in the assets included Transport Y for a portion of the road, category. in assets resulting in some disruption and inconvenience to residents and businesses

Appendix B2.2 47 Table B2.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 3: Project name Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A and 5B). Description of Sustain 1:20 – Retreat the existing of defences landward up to 50m, option widen beach crest and construct new groyne field. Description of area Shingle beach and shingle banks with timber groynes fronting mostly affected by option low lying arable and pasture land

Impact Quantitative assessment Impact Qualitative description of likely? of impacts category impacts (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary value

There will still be some impacts on business development, but much less in relation to the impacts of the do-nothing option. These impacts will be related to loss of and Business infrequent flooding of the Y 100 development caravan park area (making it unavailable for business for a day, for example), and occasional flooding of the linkage road that can produce deliveries disruption, for example. Environmental impacts In the short term, there is potential for on going erosion of low cliff and foreshore (designated geological SSSI) and continued supply of sediment to the West, but new foreshore exposure could be revealed. Physical Y Realignment of the defences 100 habitats will lead to loss of some of the Bracklesham Bay SSSI grazing marsh habitat. However some new intertidal habitat could be created. Other environmental important areas would be protected to a 1 in 20 defence standard. Wastewater treatment plant in OU5B would be protected to a Water standard of 1:20, but there Y 80 quality sewage works situated further in land would be at risk from flooding in a 1:20 year event. Water N quantity

48 Appendix B2.2 Table B2.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 3: Project name Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A and 5B). Description of Sustain 1:20 – Retreat the existing of defences landward up to 50m, option widen beach crest and construct new groyne field. Description of area Shingle beach and shingle banks with timber groynes fronting mostly affected by option low lying arable and pasture land

Impact Quantitative assessment Impact Qualitative description of likely? of impacts category impacts (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary value

There may be a small realignment of the wave climate due to the realignment of the coastline. Also, initially Natural the new coastline would attract Y 56 processes sediment onto the frontage until a new balance is established, potentially at the (limited) expense of the beaches further west. Potential loss of archaeological interest (artefacts within cliff Historical Y sediments) due to increased 100 environment erosion, where the coast is being realigned. Potential temporary loss of Landscape amenity of the beach due to and visual Y 100 regrading, recycling and amenity recharging of the beach.. Social impacts Where the shingle bank and groynes are to be sustained there would be a The existing footpath network benefit gain of would be maintained, as well approximately £0.1m as the beach recreational (damages avoided. interest, except temporarily However, where the Damages Recreation Y when beach is being managed. defence line was to be £0.8m There would be some loss of retreated there would be a recreation value due to set loss of benefits. The back of the flood bank. amount being lost is approximately £0.9m, but a lot of uncertainty surrounds this estimate. The majority of the risk to life and injury to visitors and local Health and population due to flooding and N 80 safety defence deterioration would disappeared with a 1 in 20 standard of defence.

Appendix B2.2 49 Table B2.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 3: Project name Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A and 5B). Description of Sustain 1:20 – Retreat the existing of defences landward up to 50m, option widen beach crest and construct new groyne field. Description of area Shingle beach and shingle banks with timber groynes fronting mostly affected by option low lying arable and pasture land

Impact Quantitative assessment Impact Qualitative description of likely? of impacts category impacts (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary value

The availability and accessibility to services may be disrupted due to infrequent flooding of major B2145 road, Availability and temporary disruption of and included Y smaller local roads and street accessibility in assets as well as businesses and of services public services (such as the waste water treatment plant). These impacts were, however, considered insignificant. Equity N Sense of N community Cross-cutting impacts The sustain option is in line Policy with the preferred option of Y 0/1 integration hold the line selected by the SMP.

50 Appendix B2.2 Table B2.2.3: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 3: Project name Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A and 5B). Description of Improve 1:50 - Retreat the existing of defences landward up to 50m, option widen beach crest and construct new groyne field Description of area Shingle beach and shingle banks with timber groynes fronting mostly affected by option low lying arable and pasture land Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts (Y/N) (no.units/monetary) Score Monetary value Economic impacts The great majority of the assets in this frontage would be protected a1:50 defence standard. Damages = £4,800,000 Damages Assets Y However, due to realignment of Benefits = £16,800,000 £4.8m the defences an area at the front of one of the caravan parks would be lost. The majority of the farmland within the flood risk area would be protected by the 1:50 standard of defence. There would still be Included in the assets Included Land use Y infrequent flooding of some areas category. in assets to the west of the frontage. In addition, some area of agricultural land would be lost due to realignment of defences. The B2145 would be protected Included Transport Y from 1:50 flood events. in assets The impacts to business Business Y development by this option can be 100 development considered negligible. Environmental impacts In the short term, there is potential for on going erosion of low cliff and foreshore (designated geological SSSI) and continued supply of sediment to the West, but new foreshore exposure could be revealed. Physical Realignment of the defences will Y 100 habitats lead to loss of some of the Bracklesham Bay SSSI grazing marsh habitat. However some new intertidal habitat could be created. Other environmental important areas would be protected to a 1 in 50-defence standard. Both waste water treatment works Water Y and sewage works would be 100 quality protected to a 1in 50 standard.

Appendix B2.2 51 Table B2.2.3: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 3: Project name Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A and 5B). Description of Improve 1:50 - Retreat the existing of defences landward up to 50m, option widen beach crest and construct new groyne field Description of area Shingle beach and shingle banks with timber groynes fronting mostly affected by option low lying arable and pasture land Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts (Y/N) (no.units/monetary) Score Monetary value Water N quantity There may be a small realignment of the wave climate due to the realignment of the coastline. Also, Natural initially the new coastline would Y 26 processes attract sediment onto the frontage until a new balance is established, potentially at the (limited) expense of the beaches further west. Potential loss of archaeological interest (artefacts within cliff Historical Y sediments) due to increased 100 environment erosion where the coast is being realigned. Potential temporary loss of Landscape amenity of the beach due to and visual Y 70 regrading, recycling and amenity recharging of the beach. Social impacts Where the shingle bank and groynes are to be sustained there would The existing footpath network be a benefit gain of would be maintained, as well as approximately £0.1m the beach recreational interest, (damages avoided). except temporarily when beach is However, where the Damages Recreation Y being managed. defence line was to be £0.8m There would be some loss of retreated there would recreation value due to set back of be a loss of benefits. the flood bank. The amount being lost is approximately £0.9m, but a lot of uncertainty surrounds this estimate. Visitors and local population would Health and Y be protected from an event with a 100 safety 1 in 50 frequency. The availability and accessibility to Availability services may be disrupted due to and Included Y infrequent on a 1:50 years event. accessibility in assets These impacts were, however, of services considered insignificant. Equity N

52 Appendix B2.2 Table B2.2.3: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 3: Project name Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A and 5B). Description of Improve 1:50 - Retreat the existing of defences landward up to 50m, option widen beach crest and construct new groyne field Description of area Shingle beach and shingle banks with timber groynes fronting mostly affected by option low lying arable and pasture land Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts (Y/N) (no.units/monetary) Score Monetary value Sense of N community Cross- cutting impacts The improve option is in line with Policy Y the preferred option of hold the line 100 integration selected by the SMP.

Appendix B2.2 53 Table B2.2.4: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 3: Project name Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A and 5B). Description of Improve Plus 1:150 - Retreat the existing defences landward up to 50m, option widen beach crest and construct new groyne field Description of Shingle beach and shingle banks with timber groynes fronting mostly low area affected lying arable and pasture land by option Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts

category impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score Monetary units/monetary) Economic impacts All of the assets in this frontage would be protected to a 1:150 Damages = £ 0 defence standard. Benefits = Assets Y However, due to realignment of £0m approximately the defences an area at the front £20,000,000 of one of the caravan parks would be lost. Some area of agricultural land would be lost due to realignment Included in the Included Land use Y of defences. The rest would be assets category. in assets protected to a 1 in 150 defence standard. The B2145 would be protected Transport N from 1:150 flood events. The impacts to business Business N development by this option were 100 development considered negligible. Environmental impacts In the short term, there is potential for on going erosion of low cliff and foreshore (designated geological SSSI) and continued supply of sediment to the West, but new foreshore exposure could be revealed. Physical Realignment of the defences will Y 100 habitats lead to loss of some of the Bracklesham Bay SSSI grazing marsh habitat. However some new intertidal habitat could be created. Other environmental important areas would be protected to a 1 in 150 defence standard.

54 Appendix B2.2 Table B2.2.4: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 3: Project name Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A and 5B). Description of Improve Plus 1:150 - Retreat the existing defences landward up to 50m, option widen beach crest and construct new groyne field Description of Shingle beach and shingle banks with timber groynes fronting mostly low area affected lying arable and pasture land by option Both waste water treatment Water quality Y works and sewage works would 100 be protected to a 1in 50 standard. Water quantity N There may be a small realignment of the wave climate due to the realignment of the coastline. Also, initially the new Natural Y coastline would attract sediment 0/1 processes onto the frontage until a new balance is established, potentially at the (limited) expense of the beaches further west. Potential loss of archaeological interest (artefacts within cliff Historical Y sediments) due to increased 100 Environment erosion where the coast is being realigned. Potential temporary loss of Landscape and amenity of the beach due to Y 0/10 visual amenity regrading, recycling and recharging of the beach.

Appendix B2.2 55 Table B2.2.4: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 3: Project name Medmerry Frontage (OU 5A and 5B). Description of Improve Plus 1:150 - Retreat the existing defences landward up to 50m, option widen beach crest and construct new groyne field Description of Shingle beach and shingle banks with timber groynes fronting mostly low area affected lying arable and pasture land by option Social impacts Where the shingle bank and groynes are to be sustained there would be a benefit gain of approximately The existing footpath network £0.1m (damages would be maintained, as well as avoided). the beach recreational interest, However, where except temporarily when beach is the defence line Damages Recreation Y being managed. was to be £0.8m There would be some loss of retreated there recreation value due to set back would be a loss of the flood bank. of benefits. The amount being lost is approximately £0.9m, but a lot of uncertainty surrounds this estimate. Visitors and local population Health and N would be protected from an event 100 safety with a 1 in 50 frequency. The availability and accessibility Availability and to services may be disrupted due Included accessibility of Y to infrequent on a 1:150 years in assets services event. These impacts were considered insignificant. Equity N

Sense of N community

Cross-cutting impacts The improve + option is in line Policy Y with the preferred option of hold Integration the line selected by the SMP.

56 Appendix B2.2 Appendix B2.3:

Appraisal summary table for main assessment – MA-AST for Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – East Wittering Frontage

Appendix B2.3 57 Table B2.3.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – assessment unit 4: East Project name Wittering (OU 6A). Description of ‘do-nothing’ option option Description of area Shingle beaches, sea walls and timber groynes fronting built up areas, affected by option including East Wittering and Bracklesham

Impact Quantitative assessment of Impact likely? Qualitative description of impacts impacts value category Score (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Monetary

Economic impacts Increased overtopping and eventual Write-off of (1:1 return period): failure of defences could lead to • 4 residential properties; damage to and loss of residential and and commercial/ tourism properties • 299 caravans and (flooding would occur due to chalets; breaching of defences in OUs 5A Overtopping flooding of: and 5B, therefore the benefits would • 14 residential properties be accounted for within the Medmerry frontage appraisal). Erosion of: • 150 residential properties In addition, erosion could lead to the (assuming wall failure at Assets Y loss of a significant number of year0). residential houses (assuming immediate wall failure in year 0). Assuming a 5 years residual Also, some residential houses life of defence: Damages £14.7 would be at risk from flooding due to Write-of value = £1,103,000; overtopping of defences in OU 6A. Intermittent Flooding (breach) = £0; Flooding through overtopping = £483,000; Erosion = £13,148,000; Total = £14,734,000 Some arable land located within the 1:1 year water levels would be written-off. Overtopping and failure of defences Write-off of 4 ha of farmland; could lead to loss of farmland Land use Y Included in the assets (flooding would occur due to category breaching of defences in OUs 5A and 5B, therefore the benefits would be accounted for within the Medmerry frontage appraisal) Transport N There is the potential for the intermittent flooding of the B2145 Business (though this may be flooded through Y development OUs 2A and 2B) resulting in severe disruptions and inconvenience to residents and businesses. Environmental impacts

58 Appendix B2.3 Table B2.3.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – assessment unit 4: East Project name Wittering (OU 6A). Description of ‘do-nothing’ option option Description of area Shingle beaches, sea walls and timber groynes fronting built up areas, affected by option including East Wittering and Bracklesham

Impact Quantitative assessment of Impact likely? Qualitative description of impacts impacts value category Score (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Monetary

In the short term, erosion could lead to increased exposure of geological interest of part of Bracklesham SSSI. However, in the long term there may be loss of interest unless additional foreshore exposure is provided due to cliff retreat. Also, Physical Y the shingle ridge that runs habitats throughout this section of coastline supports a relatively diverse but localised flora in its landward side. Its distribution and scale depends on the scale and location of the works undertaken as part of the existing flood defence programme Water quality N Water N quantity Potential acceleration of foreshore erosion, retreat of the shoreline and Natural increased sediment supply to Y Processes downdrift units with resulting in increased sediment yields to the beaches. Historical Erosion could lead to loss of Y Environment archaeological interest. Landscape Erosion can lead to loss of beach Accounted for in recreation and visual Y amenity. impacts. amenity

Appendix B2.3 59 Table B2.3.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – assessment unit 4: East Project name Wittering (OU 6A). Description of ‘do-nothing’ option option Description of area Shingle beaches, sea walls and timber groynes fronting built up areas, affected by option including East Wittering and Bracklesham

Impact Quantitative assessment of Impact likely? Qualitative description of impacts impacts value category Score (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Monetary

Social impacts Erosion, overtopping and failure of Informal Recreation: 56.3% of defences could lead to damage to £7,689,000 = £4,329,000. and loss of car park facilities and This value considers the value promenade along sea wall. Also, of enjoyment of the beach access to the beach would be using values from the Yellow disturbed due falling beach levels, Manual and the Hastings case and undercutting of steps and study (Penning Rowsell et al., slipways with consequences for the 1992). In the original strategy amenity interest such as general the value calculated applied to beach usage, windsurfing and OUs 4B, 5A, 6A and 7A. For scuba-diving. the purpose of this appraisal Also, increase of supply of the total value of enjoyment sediments could yield recreational was divided by the percentage Recreation Y benefits within OUs 7A, 7B and 8A. of shoreline belonging to each OU.

Public Slipway: The Damages £4.3m recreational value of loss of a slip way is the same of its replacement (no other values exist). It is considered that the construction of the slipway at year 5 costs £100,000, and that it will need reconstruction every 10 years thereafter at £35,000. Total discounted cost is £104,750. Increase in the risk to life in injury to visitors and local population due to overtopping and breaching of flood and coastal defence. Also, the gradual deterioration of groynes and sea wall can potentially pose a Health and Y health and safety impact to visitors safety and the local population. The defences protects an area dominated by residential development, therefore this option is likely to create stress and anxiety to the local residents.

60 Appendix B2.3 Table B2.3.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – assessment unit 4: East Project name Wittering (OU 6A). Description of ‘do-nothing’ option option Description of area Shingle beaches, sea walls and timber groynes fronting built up areas, affected by option including East Wittering and Bracklesham

Impact Quantitative assessment of Impact likely? Qualitative description of impacts impacts value category Score (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Monetary

It is likely that emergency services may be required for coping with The value of emergency Availability breaching of defences and severe services was estimated to be and Y flooding. In addition, cleaning £179 per property, according accessibility services will also be required for to figures in the Red Manual of services recuperating from the flood during updated to 1998 prices. and after the event Equity N Sense of N community Cross-cutting impacts The ‘do-nothing’ option is not in line Policy Y with the preferred option selected by Integration the SMP.

Appendix B2.3 61 Table B2.3.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 4: Project name East Wittering Frontage (OU 6A). Sustain 1:50 – Continue with existing concrete and timber sea wall, Description of option timber groynes and beach by maintenance, renewal and upgrading as necessary. Description of area Shingle beaches, sea walls and timber groynes fronting built up affected by option areas, including East Wittering and Bracklesham. Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? impacts value category impacts Score (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Monetary Economic impacts Residential and commercial/ tourism properties would be protected from flooding from a 1 in 50 return period event and erosion. There would still be flooding Overtopping flooding of from events with a frequency 14 residential Assets Y higher than 1 in 50 return properties, resulting in £0.5m period, due to overtopping of damages of defences. In addition, there is approximately £0.5m. still some potential flooding due overtopping or breaching of defences in OU 5A and 5B (accounted for in Medmerry frontage). Farmland would be protected from flooding and erosion from a 1 in 50 return period event. There is potential for some Land use N flooding due to breaching of defences in the Medmerry frontage (accounted for in the Medmerry frontage appraisal). Transport N Businesses premises and Business N facilities would be protected to development a 1 in 50 standard. Environmental impacts The environmental interests of the area would be protected from flooding and erosion. Physical However, recharge of the Y habitats beach may lead to a temporary concealment of the geological foreshore exposures, notified as part of the Bracklesham

62 Appendix B2.3 Table B2.3.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 4: Project name East Wittering Frontage (OU 6A). Sustain 1:50 – Continue with existing concrete and timber sea wall, Description of option timber groynes and beach by maintenance, renewal and upgrading as necessary. Description of area Shingle beaches, sea walls and timber groynes fronting built up affected by option areas, including East Wittering and Bracklesham. Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? impacts value category impacts Score (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Monetary Bay SSSI. Water quality N Water N quantity The continued maintenance of the groyne fields would Natural N maintain the coastal sediment processes transport at its existing rate and direction. The protection against erosion Historical would maintain the N environment archaeological interest of the area. During breach regrading, recycling and recharge Landscape operations and renewal and and visual Y upgrading of defences there amenity would be a decline in beach amenity Social impacts Car park facilities, slipways, promenade along the sea wall and access to the beach would Damages would be be protected from erosion and avoided in total. to a 1 in 50 standard. Beach Benefits accruing from Damages Recreation Y levels would be maintained, this option would be £0 but access along the beach equal to approximately would no be improved due to £7,689,000. the maintenance of the groyne field. The risk to life and injury due to flooding would be greatly reduced by this option. Given Health and Y the 1 in 50 standard being safety considered, the health and safety impacts will be considered insignificant. Availability Availability and accessibility of N and services will be protected to a

Appendix B2.3 63 Table B2.3.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 4: Project name East Wittering Frontage (OU 6A). Sustain 1:50 – Continue with existing concrete and timber sea wall, Description of option timber groynes and beach by maintenance, renewal and upgrading as necessary. Description of area Shingle beaches, sea walls and timber groynes fronting built up affected by option areas, including East Wittering and Bracklesham. Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? impacts value category impacts Score (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Monetary accessibility standard of 1 in 50. of services Equity N Sense of N community Cross- cutting impacts The proposed option is in line Policy N with the policy preferred by the integration SMP.

64 Appendix B2.3 Table A2.3.3: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 4: Project name East Wittering Frontage (OU 6A). Improve 1:150 Continue with existing concrete and timber sea wall, timber groynes and beach by maintenance, renewal and upgrading as Description of option necessary, and improve the standard of defence up to 1 in 150 return period event. Description of area Shingle beaches, sea walls and timber groynes fronting built up areas, affected by option including East Wittering and Bracklesham. Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no.of units/monetary) Monetary

Economic impacts Residential and commercial/ tourism properties would be protected from flooding from a 1 in 150 return period event and erosion. There would still be flooding from events with a frequency higher Assets Y than 1 in 150 return period, due to £0.4m overtopping of defences, but these are considered negligible. In addition, there is still some potential flooding due overtopping or breaching of defences in OU 5A and 5B (accounted for in Medmerry frontage). Farmland would be protected from flooding and erosion from a 1 in 150 return period event. There is potential for some flooding due to Land use N breaching of defences in the Medmerry frontage (accounted for in the Medmerry frontage appraisal). Transport N Businesses premises and facilities Business N would be protected to a 1 in 150 development standard. Environmental Impacts The environmental interests of the area would be protected from flooding and erosion. However, Physical recharge of the beach may lead to Y habitats a temporary concealment of the geological foreshore exposures, notified as part of the Bracklesham Bay SSSI. Water quality N Water quantity N

Appendix B2.3 65 Table A2.3.3: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 4: Project name East Wittering Frontage (OU 6A). Improve 1:150 Continue with existing concrete and timber sea wall, timber groynes and beach by maintenance, renewal and upgrading as Description of option necessary, and improve the standard of defence up to 1 in 150 return period event. Description of area Shingle beaches, sea walls and timber groynes fronting built up areas, affected by option including East Wittering and Bracklesham. Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no.of units/monetary) Monetary

The continued maintenance of the Natural groyne fields would maintain the N processes coastal sediment transport at its existing rate and direction. The protection against erosion Historical N would maintain the archaeological environment interest of the area. During breach regrading, recycling and recharge operations and renewal and upgrading of defences Landscape and there would be a decline in beach Y visual amenity amenity. In addition, depending on the height of the sea wall, it may constitute an impact on the landscape. Social impacts Car park facilities, slipways, promenade along the sea wall and Damages would be access to the beach would be avoided in total. protected from erosion and to a 1 Benefits accruing from Damages Recreation Y in 150 standard. Beach levels this option would be £0 would be maintained, but access equal to approximately along the beach would no be £7,689,000. improved due to the maintenance of the groyne field. The risk to life and injury due to flooding would be greatly reduced Health and by this option. Given the 1 in 150 Y safety standard being considered, the health and safety impacts will be considered insignificant. Availability and Availability and accessibility of accessibility of N services will be protected to a services standard of 1 in 150. Equity N Sense of N community Cross-cutting impacts

66 Appendix B2.3 Table A2.3.3: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Pagham to East Head coastal defence strategy – management unit 4: Project name East Wittering Frontage (OU 6A). Improve 1:150 Continue with existing concrete and timber sea wall, timber groynes and beach by maintenance, renewal and upgrading as Description of option necessary, and improve the standard of defence up to 1 in 150 return period event. Description of area Shingle beaches, sea walls and timber groynes fronting built up areas, affected by option including East Wittering and Bracklesham. Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no.of units/monetary) Monetary

Policy The proposed option is in line with N Integration the policy preferred by the SMP.

Appendix B2.3 67 Joint Defra/EA Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management R&D Programme

Annex B.3:

Case study no.3:

Assessment of the Dymchurch sea defence scheme

R&D Project Record FD2013/PR2

Dissemination Status Internal: Released internally External: Released to public domain

Keywords: Multi criteria analysis, MCA, appraisal summary table, AST, decision rule

Acknowledgements The assistance of those providing information for the case studies is gratefully acknowledged.

Defra project manager: Matt Crossman, Defra, 3D Ergon House, Horseferry Rd, London, SW1P 2AL. Email: [email protected]

Publishing organisation Defra Flood Management Division Ergon House Horseferry Road London SW1P 2AL Tel: 020 7238 3000 Fax: 020 7238 6187 www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd

¬ Crown copyright (Defra); 2005

Published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Printed in the UK, March 2005 on recycled material containing 80% post-consumer waste and 20% totally chlorine free virgin pulp.

PB No. 10734/PR2 ISBN 0-85521-146-6

ii 1. Introduction

This report presents the MCA-based project appraisal process for the Dymchurch Sea Defence Scheme. This scheme appraisal follows as much as possible the original appraisal process carried out by the Environment Agency (EA).

The base information reported here is based on the following:

• visit to Dymchurch Sea Defence Scheme, followed by meeting with Steve Thompsett (EA Project Manager), Chris Powel and Ray Traynor (BBR) and Anita Ferguson (EA Kent Area Improvements Engineer);

• High Knocke to Dymchurch Sea Defence Scheme Environmental Scoping Study (BBR, 2003);

• Project Appraisal Report (PAR) for the High Knocke to Dymchurch Redoubt Sea Defences (Environment Agency, 2004);

• Folkestone to Rye Coastal Defence Strategy Main Report (HR Wallingford, 2001); and

• Folkestone to Rye Coastal Defence Strategy Executive Summary (HR Wallingford, 2001).

1.1 Summary of the project area

The stretch of coast between High Knocke and Dymchurch Redoubt lies within Shepway District in Kent, between St Mary’s Bay and Hythe. The area covers management units (MU) 18/7 to 18/13 as identified in the Beachy Head to South Foreland Shoreline Management Plan (SMP) and in the Folkestone to Rye Coastal Defence Strategy.

Dymchurch town centre, with shops, businesses and housing, extending along the A259, relies on existing seawalls for protection against inundation. Land levels are generally between 2 and 3 metres above mean sea level, i.e. up to 2 metres below the high water mark of spring tides and as much as 3 metres below predicted 50-year water levels.

The housing and nature of buildings in Dymchurch and St Mary’s Bay have a variety of origins. These include remains of a 12th Century Parish Church and the old village of Dymchurch dating back to the 14th Century (including an inn), through to the 20th Century bungalows that form the majority of the housing (many of which are let as holiday homes). The main shopping area is close to the sea front and includes the amusement arcade and several shops associated with the touristy character of the town. The New Beach Holiday Centre is a dominant feature on the A259 at the northern end of Dymchurch and there are a number of other caravan sites (with a combined total of 630 caravans).

In terms of landscape, the massive Dymchurch wall and the three Martello Towers dominate the coastal landscape of Dymchurch town and St Mary’s Bay.

Section 1: Introduction 1 The sandy beaches between Dymchurch Redoubt and St Mary's Bay are the main reason for the development of a tourist resort along this coastline. The imposing bulk of the Dymchurch Wall separates the beach from the low-lying land on which Dymchurch and St Mary's Bay are built. The beaches have a gentle slope giving a large expanse of firm sand for the traditional seaside pursuits at low tide as well as providing safe bathing. At each high tide the beaches are completely covered.

There is an amusement arcade and fun fair close to the beach. The car parks at High Knocke and St Mary's Bay also provide a focus for holidaymakers and day-trippers using the beaches. There are also public slipways at Dymchurch and High Knocke. Access to the beach can be gained by steps over the seawall at many other points. These are used by people walking to the beach from the hotels, campsites, caravan sites and rented accommodation along the coast. Thus the whole length of the beach is used for recreation with clusters of people around the main centres and car parks.

Tourism facilities in the area include the New Beach Holiday Centre with 20 chalets at Dymchurch and 5 caravan parks in the St Mary’s Bay and Dymchurch area that hold around 630 caravans.

1.2 Existing defences

The sea defences from High Knocke to Dymchurch Redoubt consist of original clay embankments which have been progressively dressed on their seaward face, protected on the crest and have had rear upstand walls added at various dates. The seawalls throughout the Dymchurch frontage have been affected by falling beach levels over many years and now, in areas, require urgent attention. Shingle occurs only sporadically as a narrow fillet at the toe of the walls, and the low sand foreshore allows larger waves to reach the seawall (BBR, 2003). The defences are generally much older than other sections of Management Unit 18 and need frequent maintenance and major upgrading, in response to wave induced damage, deterioration due to old age and the effects of long term foreshore lowering (BBR, 2003).

From High Knocke to Chapel Road the beach levels are relatively stable but the width of the foreshore between high and low water of medium tides reduces from 350m at the southern end to 250m at the northern end of the frontage. The situation is further exacerbated by the inability of the present system of long and short timber groynes along this frontage to arrest the littoral currents in this area.

Under the current maintenance policy, present standard of defence is less than 1 in 10 years and a breach (probably within 5 years) of defences could lead to flooding of the urban settlements and of Romney Marsh (BBR, 2003).

According to the Folkestone to Rye Coastal Defence Strategy (HR Wallingford, 2001) the primary agent of coastal change in this area is wave action at the

2 Section 1: Introduction shoreline. The study area is exposed to the prevailing south-westerly winds giving rise to severe storm attack at the coast.

Severe flood damage occurs when extreme wave and water levels conditions combine. However this is rare as the correlation between extreme water level and wave height is relatively low (on average once every 200 years for a storm event) (HR Wallingford, 2001).

In what relates to beach behaviour, the Folkestone to Rye Coastal Strategy estimates that the net sand drift in from south west to north east at an average rate of 100,000 m3/a in the Dymchurch frontage, increasing from 80,000 m3/a on the west to 100,000 m3/a on the east.

1.3 Policy framework

In 1996 a Shoreline Management Plan (SMP) was produced for the stretch of coastline between Beachy Head, in East Sussex and South Foreland, in Kent. The framework developed within the SMP sets out a protocol for a sustainable approach to shoreline management on a wide area scale.

The preferred policy option identified in the SMP for the area is to hold the line, by continuing maintenance of the walls to maintain the defence to the backshore area. The SMP also noted that this area provides an opportunity for realignment, which would require secondary defence lines, remodelling of drainage outfalls and consideration of the presently important coastal road (HR Wallingford, 2001).

In 1998 the Environment Agency and the Shepway District Council jointly commissioned HR Wallingford to undertake the development of the Strategy Plan for the area extending from Folkestone to Rye, following the policy framework set out in the SMP. This strategy was agreed in 20011.

The Folkestone to Rye Coastal Defence Strategy identifies broad-brush opportunities and constrains for coastal management over the next fifty years as well as a more detailed Coastal Defence Implementation Plan for the net five years based on need.

The Folkestone to Rye Coastal Defence Strategy (HR Wallingford, 2001) admits that in the medium to long term (< 50 years) the Hold the Line policy identified in the SMP is appropriate. It adds, however, that future planning actions should recognise that continued protection is not sustainable in the very long term (> 50 years) and retreat may ultimately need to be considered.

1 According to Steve Thompsett (Environment Agency Project Manager), the approval of the FRCDS is pending on approval of two or more schemes included in it, such as Dymchurch Coastal Defence Scheme.

Section 1: Introduction 3 1.4 List of stakeholders and interested parties

A communication plan was issued in 2001 for the Dymchurch Sea Defence Scheme (BBR, 2003). The plan listed the consultees and outlined the key requirements for consultation during the project development.

Consultation of stakeholders followed from the consultation undertaken during the preparation of the Coastal Defence Strategy, where a broader range of options was considered.

The consultation for the scheme was carried out internally within the Environment Agency and externally to key statutory and non-statutory consultees. The List of statutory and non-statutory consultees is presented in Table 1.1.

Table 1.1: List of stakeholders of the High Knocke to Dymchurch Redoubt sea defence scheme

Statutory • Environment Agency • Kent County Council • Countryside Agency • Member of Parliament • Crown Estate Commissioners • Member of European Parliament • Defra • Rother District Council • English Nature • Shepway District Council • English Heritage • East Kent Constituency MEP

Non- • CPRE • Clive Vale Angling Club Statutory • National Trust • Kent Wildlife Trust • National Farmers Union • Romney Marsh Countryside Project • RSPB • Romney Marsh Research Trust • Friends of the Earth • South East Otters and Rivers Project • Royal National Lifeboat Institution • Southern Water Services Ltd • National Grid Co Plc • Folkestone and Dover Water • Houses of Parliament Services • Ministry of Defence • Parish Councils: Burmarsh, • DFT Ports Division Newchurch, Postling, Saltwood, • Sandgate Society Stanford, Dymchurch, Lympne, St. • New Romney Town Council Mary in The Marsh, Romney Marsh. • Dymchurch and Burmarsh Ward • St Mary in the Marsh Ward (Lib Dem and Conservative) • Country Landowners • Hythe West Ward (Labour) • Country Landowners Association • Kent Tourism Sector Group • New Beach Holiday Village • South East England Tourist Board • E and J Piper Caravan Park • Ramblers Association • MW’s Family Amusement Park • British Horse Society • Folkestone Yacht and Motor Boat • Romney, Hythe and Dymchurch Club Railway • Hythe and Saltwood Sailing Club • Lathe Barn Farm • Royal Yachting Association • Dymchurch Caravan Park • Kent Landsailing Club • Centre for the Environment • The Sports Council Fisheries and Aquaculture Science • Hastings, Bexhill and District (CEFAS) Freshwater Angling Association • Kent & Essex Sea Fisheries • Rye and District Angling Society Ltd Committee • Cranbrook and District Angling Club • Kent & Dungeness Fishermens • Rye Fishermen’s Association Association • New Beach Angling Club • South Kent Angling Association • Dungeness Fishermen’s Protection • Hastings Fishermen’s Protection Society Society • Local Fishermen

4 Section 1: Introduction Source: BBR (2003): High Knock to Dymchurch Redoubt Sea Defence Scheme – Environmental Scoping Study, Internal Working Paper, Revision II, October 2003. Notes: Individual landowners in the seafront region of this study area have also been contacted separately and consultation packs will also be made available to Dymchurch shop owners through Mr Woolls at the Amusement Park (Babtie Group, 2003).

Consultation was undertaken during the following stages of the development of the project:

• screening and option identification;

• scoping exercise;

• draft environmental report or environmental statement; and

• environmental action plan.

In addition, a beach users survey and a Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) survey were also undertaken at Dymchurch to assess the value of the sandy beach to the local community and visitors.

Section 1: Introduction 5 2. Definition of objectives and management options

According to Babtie Group (2004) the works will be developed to meet the Environment Agency’s operational aim of reducing “the risk of flooding from rivers and the sea to people, property and the natural environment by providing effective defences and awareness”.

In order to meet the broader aims of the Environment Agency, including sustainable defence, the following objectives have been developed (Environment Agency, 2004):

• to maintain protection against overtopping of defences by storms with a minimum return period of 1 in 100 years for a period of 100 years;

• to reduce the risk of breach of defences;

• to provide minimum adverse effects on the coastal zone in construction, operation and decommissioning;

• to include suitable measures to mitigate against identified environmental impacts; and

• to maintain the recreational amenity value of the frontage.

The Shoreline Management Plan and the Folkestone to Rye Coastal Defence Strategy have confirmed a long-term policy of hold the line. The Folkestone to Rye Coastal Defence Strategy (FRCDS) identified the High Knocke to Grand Redoubt frontage (Dymchurch) as Priority Action No.3. The existing standard of defence at Dymchurch was identified as 1:10 years and a standard of 1:100 years was recommended.

The options for the Dymchurch area considered during the development of the scheme are presented in Table 2.1.

The Folkestone to Rye Coastal Defence Strategy did not seem to fully resolve the preferred option for Dymchurch. The preferred options (regional and local) focussed on a major beach management solution using either a sand or shingle beach, with control structures and minor works to the seawall. Consultation on the strategy had identified that the sand option was preferable on amenity grounds as the reputation of Dymchurch, as a coastal resort, is built upon its sandy beaches.

6 Section 2: Definition of objectives and management options Table 2.1: Defence options considered for the Dymchurch sea defence scheme Options Description 1 ‘Do-nothing’ Would result in progressive failure of the seawall with potential catastrophic breach and associated flooding. 2 Do Minimum Involves continuing the current annual maintenance works of (Maintain) the sea wall. This work is reactive to damage incurred at particular locations and typically involves filling surface voids in the revetments with mass concrete. The standard of protection afforded is 1 in 10 reducing to 1 in 3 after 25 years. 3 Sustain From High Knocke to Martello Tower 23, seal and strengthen the existing seawall aprons with new concrete stepwork extending at least two metres below existing beach with a sheet piled toe. In addition, raise the rear seawall parapet and reconstruct the promenade along the entire length. From Martello Tower 23 to Dymchurch Redoubt, the seawall aprons would be replaced by rock revetment, with access provided by concrete steps. The standard of protection afforded is 1 in 10. 4 Improve with From High Knocke to Martello Tower 23, shingle beach Shingle recharge, structural work to upper wall and terminal rock groynes. The beach would need to be recharged to a level of +6m ODN with a crest of 10 to 15 metres wide. Terminal groynes would be placed at each end of the recharged beach to separate, perch, and retain shingle above the sand beaches. From Martello Tower 23 to Dymchurch Redoubt the seawall aprons would be replaced by rock revetment, with access provided by concrete steps. The standard of protection is 1 in 50 5 Improve with From High Knocke to Martello Tower 23, this option would be Sand the same as sustain except that sand recharge would cover the existing toe and base of the apron removing the need to upgrade the seawall below this level. The maximum beach crest level that can be maintained is 2.5m ODN with a slope of approximately 1 in 50. The work would include timber groynes at each end of the recharge beach and at intermediate locations to maintain sand levels. Frequent recharge of areas of erosion would be required. From Martello Tower 23 to Dymchurch Redoubt the seawall aprons would be replaced by rock revetment, with access provided by concrete steps. The standard of protection afforded is 1 in 50 Notes: adapted from Environment Agency (2004). In the PAR for Dymchurch the consultants divide the study frontage in two and provide options for each section.

Section 2: Definition of objectives and management options 7 3. Structuring the problem

This section aims to break down the problem into its component parts, identifying the set of impacts and associated criteria that will be used to make the decision. In other words it carries out a screening exercise for the Dymchurch coastal defence scheme.

3.1 Summary of the screening exercise

The detailed high level screening for both Dymchurch is presented in Appendices A3.1 to this report - Appraisal Summary Table for Flood Management and Coastal Defence for High Level Screening (AST-FMDC-S) – Table 3.1 summarises the results of the screening exercise.

The screening exercise highlighted the fact that the majority of the more significant impacts of the Dymchurch Sea Defence Scheme (DSDS) are related to economic assets such as housing and commercial premises as well as agricultural land, and to recreation and tourism activities in the area, such as the beach and the landscape in general. There are some environmental impacts, but these are not so significant given that the area does not encompass great conservation interests.

It also becomes clear that cost benefit analysis (CBA) will be the main valuation tool, since the more significant impact categories can be valued using this technique. Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) will be particularly important when assessing the historical environment impacts category, which plays a very important role in this frontage, and some of the recreational sub-categories, also very significant. Table 3.1 indicates which categories of impacts will be valued using CBA and which categories will be assessed using MCA.

8 Section 3: Structuring the problem Table 3.1: Table summarising the results in the screening exercise

Project Dymchurch Sea defence scheme name

Category Monetary value Score

Economic impacts Assets 3 Land use 3 Transport 3 Business development 3 Environmental impacts Physical habitats 3 Water quality 3 Water quantity Natural processes Historical environment 3 Landscape and visual amenity 3 Social impacts Recreation 3 3 Health and safety 3 Availability and accessibility of services 3 Equity 3 Sense of community 3 Cross-cutting impacts Policy Integration 3

Section 3: Structuring the problem 9 4. Cost of options

The whole life costs considered for each of the options being assessed are detailed in Table 4.1. These costs are based on those provided by Environment Agency (2004), and adjusted to take into consideration adjustments made during the case study appraisal. In the Dymchurch Coastal Defence Scheme PAR, the coast is divided into to two different assessment units. Costs of options were given for both units. In order to take into account small differences in appraisal, the costs of the most similar option for each unit was selected and then added up to give the cost of the option being implemented for the whole of the frontage.

Table 4.1: Cost of options for the Dymchurch coastal defence scheme Actual cost Capital cost Maintenance PV (£) costs Options (£m) (£m) costs (£m) (£m) ‘Do-nothing’ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Maintain 1:10 to 1:3 5.8 0.0 5.8 2.1 Sustain 1:10 50.3 39.8 10.5 32.3 Improve 1:50 Shingle 75.1 60.8 14.4 38.6 Improve 1:50 Sand 125.3 108.1 17.3 56.5

10 Section 4: Cost of options 5. Assessment of impacts

5.1 Qualitative and quantitative assessment

The assessment followed a stepped approach, starting with the qualitative assessment of all impact categories and moving to the quantitative assessment whenever information was available.

5.2 Monetary valuation of impacts

All of the following information was obtained from the Folkestone to Rye Coastal Defence Strategy (FRDC) Study (HR Wallingford, 2001) and High Knocke to Dymchurch Redoubt Sea Defences Project Appraisal Report (Environment Agency, 2004). The damage assessment in the PAR was developed from the damage assessment produced for the FRCDS. The appraisal period was extended to 100 years, the discount rates were changed to 3.5% and substituting the FLAIR Flood damages by the ones in the Multicoloured Manual (MCM).

Benefits accruing from provision of defences (i.e. damages avoided) can be subdivided into 4 categories:

• write-off benefits;

• intermittent flooding after breach benefits;

• overtopping benefits; and

• erosion benefits.

5.2.1 Write-off benefits

Assets

Where flood damage is suffered so frequently that the present value of the flood damage during the life of the scheme exceeds the value of the property, the property is written off and the losses are capped at the write-off value of the property.

Residential property value prices have been obtained from a combination of data including that from Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, the Halifax and HM Land Registry.

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 11 A method based on the house equivalent method was used to calculate the value of commercial properties. In addition, a category of ‘Special Parks’ is used to value assets such as holiday camps and amusement parks. For write-off value, 1 Special Park is equivalent to 10.1 household equivalents, i.e. £808,000.

For Caravans that would be written-off it is considered that they could be relocated. Instead a nominal sum of £2,000 has been assigned to each caravan to cover relocation expenses, as indicated as an appropriate upper limit by MAFF.

Land use

Farmland flooded by salt water once every 10 years or lost through erosion is considered to be unfit for agriculture. In this situation the value of the loss is assumed to be the risk-free market value of the land multiplied by a factor of 0.45 to reflect the inflated price of agricultural land resulting from Government subsidy.

The survey of land values for the southeast region was used to calculate the risk-market value of agricultural land.

Historical environment

For many of the Schedule Ancient Monuments (SAM) and archaeological features of the area there is a statutory duty to protect them from damage. Therefore, the assessment of their value in national economic terms would be unnecessary. A nominal value of £2,000,000 has been assigned to each.

5.2.2 Intermittent flooding after breach

Assets

The value of recurrent flood damage to properties has been calculated using standard references (FLAIR and Yellow Manual, updated to the Multicolour Manual). It was considered that all properties flooded are inundated by salt water for a period of less than 12 hours. This is a reasonable assumption since the majority of properties are at risk from salt water flooding and the multitude of drainage pathways across the Marsh act to remove the worst of any flood waters.

For caravans, a threshold level is assumed to be 500mm above the surrounding ground level.

12 Section 5: Assessment of impacts Land use

For the occasional losses of agricultural output as a result of flooding, i.e. losses of crop or land unfit for production for one year, a distinction as been made between arable and pastureland. According to the June 1997 Agricultural and Horticultural Census, the approximate ration between pasture and arable land use is 1 to 2.4 for the Kent Region.

For pastureland it has been assumed that livestock can be moved to a safer area, and the only cost is the loss of land use against which a rent is required. This constitutes a transfer payment and therefore cannot be considered. If, however, the land is damaged and the livestock cannot return for a long period of time, the write-off value of the land is used.

For arable land, a gross margin as been assumed to reflect the national loss. This approach was coupled with a local farmers survey regarding details of crops and produce prices.

Transport

The damages incurred by transport infrastructures under the ‘do-nothing’ option were calculated using the methodology recommended by the Yellow Manual, i.e. consideration of the likely diversion that would be required and any increase in cost associated with using such diversion.

For the A259, two different diversions were considered, and the cost of disruption is defined by the difference in the cost of travelling either diversion 1 or 2 compared with travelling the normal route.

5.2.3 Erosion protection benefits

Assets

In what regards outfalls and pumping stations, in the event of continued erosion they could be lost. The nominal replacement cost (£200,000) of these structures is used.

Historical environment

For many of the Schedule Ancient Monuments (SAM) and archaeological features of the area there is a statutory duty to protect from damage. Therefore it was decided that assessment of their value in national economic terms would be unnecessary. A nominal value of £2,000,000 has been assigned to each.

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 13 5.2.4 Monetary valuation of intangible benefits

Recreation

Dymchurch is known for its sandy beach, which is popular both with local residents and visitors. However, due to the age of the defences protecting Dymchurch there is a risk that the beach will be lost.

In order to identify the importance of the beach to amenity and recreation, a Continent Valuation Assessment was commissioned (HR Wallingford, 2003).

The recreation losses will be calculated using information supplied in this study. It is known that there are approximately 160,000 visitors to the beach each year and that each of them is willing to pay £3.59 per visit.

5.3 Scoring of impacts

Scoring of impacts across the different options and their justification is presented in tabular format below. Table 5.1, overleaf, shows the scores for the Dymchurch.

Both the ‘Zero to 100’ and ‘relative to 100’ scoring systems were applied to this case study. The exercise demonstrates that the robustness of the scores is intrinsically related with the quality and quantity of information available. It also shows that when the base information for the scores is sparse, it is easier to use a ‘0 to 100’ score system simply because in this case two of the options are fixed and the remaining options have to assessed in relation to these two. However, this situation may not reflect accurately the reality, in particular in what concerns proportionality between the options.

14 Section 5: Assessment of impacts Table 5.1: Table summarising scores and monetary estimates Dymchurch (scores given here are not weighted; monetary values are in PV terms over 100 Project name years at 3,5% (reducing)).

Category Scores justification Option 1: Option 2: Option 3: Option 4: Option 5:

Economic impacts Both the Strategy and the Scheme appraisal identify tourism as a major contributor to the local economy. It is estimated that between 7% and 14% of all employment in Shepway District, is provided by tourism (HR Wallingford, 2001). Considering that the quality status of the coast, in particular the beach, will significantly influence tourism, it is assumed that any change (positive or negative) to the coast will have a significant impact on business development. In this context, the option that will score the 0 70 70 81 100 highest (100) is the one that will have the most positive influence (option 5). Option 4 will have a less positive effect. According to the Beach Users Survey (HR Wallingford, 2002), if the beach were to be built up with shingle instead of sand there would be a loss of 19% in visitor numbers. The same study indicates that 30% of visitors would not visit another beach in the area if the beach amenity were lost. For this reason, a score of 70 was given to option 2 and 3. Both the Strategy and the Scheme appraisal identify tourism as a major contributor to the local economy. It is estimated that between 7% and 14% of all employment in Business Shepway District, is provided by tourism (HR Wallingford, development 2001). Considering that the quality status of the coast, in particular the beach, will significantly influence tourism, it is assumed that any change (positive or negative) to the coast will have a significant impact on business development. If we assume that the situation as it is today has no impact on business development, i.e. option 2 and 3 (maintain and sustain will be assumed to have approximately the same impact) then, options 4 and 5 will 55 85 85 86 100 have a benefit in relation to the situation today and ‘do- nothing’ will have an impact. According to the Beach Users Survey (HR Wallingford, 2002), if the improve with shingle and improve with sand option were to go ahead, 1% and 15% of visitors respectively will visit the beach more often, and hence create more business. In this context, option 5 would score the highest (100), options 2 and 3 would score 15 points below option 5 (i.e. 85) and option 4 would score 1 point more than existing situation (i.e. 86) As for the ‘do- nothing’ option, the same study indicates that 30% of visitors would not visit another beach in the area if the beach amenity was lost, hence its scores 55, or 30 points below the current situation.

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 15 Table 5.1: Table summarising scores and monetary estimates Dymchurch (scores given here are not weighted; monetary values are in PV terms over 100 Project name years at 3,5% (reducing)).

Category Scores justification Option 1: Option 2: Option 3: Option 4: Option 5:

Environmental Impacts The environmental assets of the local area are not very many and, in the regional context, not very significant. It is believed that the differences between the impacts of the options are not big enough to warrant a scoring exercise. Physical - - - - - Although the protection of the environmental assets will habitats prevent loss of some species and habitats of local importance, it could be argued that the return to a more natural coastline is the preferred option in an environmental perspective. There is no quantitative indication of the impact on water 0 20 20 100 100 quality of the different options being assessed, which makes the scoring exercise difficult. It is known that if do- nothing is the preferred option the impacts will be the greatest, in particular after breaching (a score of zero). If Water quality the defences are maintained in its place then the impacts will depend on the frequency of flooding and area affected, 1 20 20 100 100 with the options that protect to a 1 in 50 return period scoring 100 and the options protecting against 1 in 10 scoring 20. This scoring will tend to overestimate the impacts of the lower standards of defence. Although information is available on what types of monuments are being impacted upon by the flooding, there is no information available on which monuments were flooded by each flood event. Therefore it was decided to score the historical environment using flood frequency as a base, with the improve options scoring 100 because they Historical protect the monuments from a flood with a return period environment higher than 1 in 50, ‘do-nothing’ scoring zero because monuments are vulnerable to all floods plus erosion, sustain will score 20 because it protects from floods that

(included in assets) (included in assets) (included in assets) (included in assets) (included in assets) have return periods bigger than 1 in 10 and maintain scoring 12 because they protect from floods with 1 in 10 return period reducing to 1 in 3 over time (so average 1 in 6 return period). The landscape and visual amenity will be impacted mostly through the change in the nature of the sandy beach in front of Dymchurch; therefore the scoring of this category should be based on this characteristic. ‘Do-nothing’ will 0 86 86 66 100 have a fatal impact on the sandy beach of Dymchurch which will end up disappearing due to erosion. This option Landscape therefore scores 0/1. The option of improving the flood and and visual coastal defences including nourishment of the beach with amenity 1 86 86 66 100 sand will improve the quality of the landscape beyond of what it is today. In terms of sandy beach this option will be scoring the highest score (100). It can be assumed that both maintain and sustain options will secure the beach levels as they are at present. According to the results of the Dymchurch beach users survey (HR Wallingford, 2002) if the sand levels were to be raised slightly, 14 % of visitors (local and outside visitors) would visit the beach more often, therefore maintain and sustain score 86 points. The

16 Section 5: Assessment of impacts Table 5.1: Table summarising scores and monetary estimates Dymchurch (scores given here are not weighted; monetary values are in PV terms over 100 Project name years at 3,5% (reducing)).

Category Scores justification Option 1: Option 2: Option 3: Option 4: Option 5: survey results also tell you that if the beach were to be nourished with shingle instead of sand 33% of visitors would visit the beach less often, therefore improve with shingle as a score of 66.

Social impacts Health and safety impacts would be most affected by the 0 12 20 100 100 risk of flooding to the population, stress and anxiety and the risk caused by deteriorating defences. The first issue will relate mostly with frequency of flooding whilst the Health and second will relate to the management or abandonment of safety the defences. This then means that do-nothing would be 1 12 20 100 100 the worst option (most frequent flooding and no management of defences), the maintain option would score 12, sustain 20 and both improve options would score 100. Availability and The same reasoning applied to health and safety would be 0/1 12 20 100 100 accessibility applied to this category. of services The Dymchurch area is considered to be neither a deprived nor an affluent area. In this context it could be assumed that, as long as the present situation is sustained, the level of equity is maintained. Hence, the option that scores the lowest score is ‘do-nothing’ with 0, since it would potentially create losses of jobs relating to tourism and recreation. Options 3, 4 and 5 will keep the level of protection to a level where no write-of of assets and infrastructure will occur, so one can assume that the deprivation standard will be at least maintained. It is also true that an improvement of the coastal strip, brought by improved defences, will potentially create more jobs which in turn may make the area more affluent, keeping in mind that the increasing beach levels with sand will potentially create more tourism Equity 0 79 86 93 100 related activity than with shingle. It is also known that an estimated 7% to 14% of all employment in Shepway District is provided by tourism. Using a best case and worst case scenario it could be assumed that improving with sand would create 14% more jobs, improving with shingle would create 7% more jobs and that letting the existing standard of defence be reduced (over time) would potentially mean the loss of 7% of tourism employment (maintain option with a standard of 1 in 3 would mean writing off commercial properties for example). Hence, the best-scored option would be improve with sand with 100, followed by improve with shingle with 93, followed by sustain with a score of 86 and finally maintain with a score of 79.

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 17 Table 5.1: Table summarising scores and monetary estimates Dymchurch (scores given here are not weighted; monetary values are in PV terms over 100 Project name years at 3,5% (reducing)).

Category Scores justification Option 1: Option 2: Option 3: Option 4: Option 5:

For this scoring the same reasoning as before would be applied. However, for ‘do-nothing’, we can assume that in a 65 79 86 93 100 worst-case scenario all employment arising from tourism (14%) would be lost. Hence ‘do-nothing’ would score Sense of community is mostly affected by loss of property, jobs and business development. Scoring this category on the basis of loss of jobs and business development could incur in double counting with equity. Loss of property (the physical loss rather then the monetary loss) would then be 0 100 100 100 100 the most relevant factor in scoring this category. Since loss Sense of of property would only occur in the ‘do-nothing’ option, it community could be said that this option would score 0 while all the other options would score 100, at least in the short and medium term. The same reasoning would be applied as above. However it is known that under do-nothing 1147 out of 2471 54 100 100 100 100 properties would be totally lost (46%). In this context, ‘do- nothing’ would score 54. Cross-Cutting Impacts Policy - - - - - Integration

18 Section 5: Assessment of impacts 6. Weighting

6.1 Weighting methods and analysis used

It was not possible to directly or indirectly elicit weights for the Dymchurch case study. For this reason, analysis of scores combined with monetary costs and benefits was by means of the Constrained Random Weight Generator (CRWG). A CRWG analysis considers options sequentially starting from the ‘do-nothing’ option as per the traditional benefit-cost and incremental benefit-cost ratio analyses. The same rules and guidance are used as the traditional flood defence appraisals. Details of the principles and mechanism behind the CRWG are provided in Section 7 of the main report.

As described elsewhere, for a given comparison, the CRWG is programmed to identify more than 1,000 sets of weights where the total weighted intangible score (I) combined with k is sufficiently large to bring the overall benefit cost ratio and/or incremental benefit cost ratio within the bounds of the decision rules. The larger the I-score, the smaller (and, depending on context, the more reasonable) the value of k has to be.

The analysis was used to identify:

• whether it is mathematically possible for one option be preferred over others;

• if it is mathematically possible for one option to be preferred over another, whether this occurs within reasonable limits of the value of k (where this can either be unreasonably high); and

• if it is at least possible that it could be preferred within a reasonable value of k, whether the conditions for this in terms of the relative weights between categories of impact are reasonable.

6.1.2 Application of CRWG analysis to Dymchurch

For Dymchurch there are five options including the ‘do-nothing’ option. The results of the appraisal of monetary costs and benefits for the different options are presented in Table 6.1.

Section 6: Weighting 19 Table 6.1: Summary table of monetary costs and benefits Costs and benefits £k Do- Improve Improve Maintain Sustain nothing Shingle Sand PV costs from estimates 2,100 32,300 38,600 56,500 Optimism bias adjustment 1,260 19,380 23,160 33,900 Total PV costs for appraisal PVc 3,360 51,680 61,760 90,400 PV damage PVd 213,811 87,122 29,067 5,323 5,323 PV damage avoided 126,689 184,743 208,488 208,488 Total PV benefits PVb 126,689 184,743 208,488 208,488 Net Present Value NPV 123,329 133,063 146,728 151,988 Average benefit/cost ratio 37.70 3.57 3.38 2.31 Incremental benefit/cost ratio 1.20 2.36 0.61

The procedure to run the CRWG analysis developed through the following steps:

• first, the scores and economic costs of each option were introduced into the ‘score and costs sheet’;

• in the ‘front sheet’, the competing options were selected and the required incremental benefit-cost ratio was entered. With this information, the weights were calculated;

• at this stage it is also possible to introduce rules or constraints to the weights being calculated. So, for example, specifying that environmental impacts are always more important that social impacts. This step was not possible in the Dymchurch case study, since no weight or rank elicitation was carried out;

• once the software completes its run, the ‘front sheet’ will provide information on the quantity of weight sets calculated, the number of weight combinations tried and the success rate of finding ‘winning’ weights per thousand combinations;

• the software will then move across to the ‘results sheet’ where, as the name says, the results of the weight calculation are displayed. The most important set of results that the software provides relate to absolute and average values of k minimum and k maximum for which the option that was set up to ‘win’, wins; and

• upon these results, a judgement is made as to whether the decision process should proceed to the next incremental option or not.

The data presented in Table 6.1, above, together with the category scores for each option were entered into the CRWG and the programme was run four times, as follows:

• once to ascertain whether it was feasible for the Sustain option to be preferred against the Maintain option;

• another time to ascertain whether it was feasible for Improve with Sand option to be preferred against the Sustain option;

20 Section 6: Weighting • another time to ascertain in which circumstances the Improve with Shingle option would not be the preferred one in relation to Sustain. There was no need to calculate weights for the Improve with Shingle option to be preferred against the Sustain option because, this option fulfilled the decision making requirements and could be justified on economic terms alone; and, finally,

• another time to compare Improve-shingle with Improve-sand.

The CRWG results are presented in Table 6.2.

Table 6.2: Summary of results from the constrained random weight generator analysis Operation Absolute Size of weight Constraints population introduced K min (£k) K max (£k) Maintain versus Sustain 3,300 21,000 1000 No constraints Sustain versus Improve- - - - - shingle Sustain versus Improve- 658 21,000 1000 No constraints sand

The discussion as to which is the preferred option given these results is provided in Section 7.

Maintain versus sustain

The CRWG analysis also provides an indication of the frequency distribution of the weights by type and category of impacts so as to give an idea of the pattern to the weights required to achieve the starting condition (i.e. which sets of weights make Sustain the preferred option). Figure 6.1 provides a distribution of the magnitude of weights for each type of impact in the population of 1000 weights where Sustain is justified.

Frequency Distribution: Impact Type Weights

20% 18% 16% ) 14% 12% cy (%

n 10% 8%

Freque 6% 4% 2% 0% 00.20.40.6 0.8 1 Magnitude of Weight Range

Economic Impacts Environmental Impacts Social Impacts Cross-Cutting Impacts

Section 6: Weighting 21 Figure 6.1 Sustain weight distribution for impact types

As it can be observed in Figure 6.1, there is no particular pattern in the set of weights, meaning that there is no one particular type of impact (economic, environmental, social or cross-cutting) that has to be more important than the others. This also means that the decision must depend on whether the value of k min is reasonable or not. At first glance, and considering the information in the ASTs, the value seems a little bit high. Further discussion of this issue is presented in Section 7.

Sustain versus improve-shingle

The comparative analysis between Sustain and Improve–shingle was not necessary because the incremental benefit-cost ratio is above the required 1.5. Nonetheless, the CRWG was run to ascertain in which conditions Improve- shingle would not be preferred to Sustain. The software did not find any set of weights when this condition was true.

Sustain versus improve-sand

Figure 6.2 provides an illustration of the frequency distribution of the weights by type of impacts in order for the Improve-sand option to be preferred relative to Sustain. Again, the Figure shows that there is no particular pattern of weights, leading us to believe that the decision lies on whether the value of k min is reasonable or not (see discussion in Section 7).

Frequency Distribution: Category Weights

20% 18% 16% ) 14% 12% cy (%

n 10% 8%

Freque 6% 4% 2% 0% 00.20.40.60.81 Magnitude of Weight Range

Economic Impacts Environmental Impacts Social Impacts Cross-Cutting Impacts

Figure 6.2 Improve-sand weight distribution for impact types

22 Section 6: Weighting Improve-shingle versus improve-sand

Finally, a comparison between the two improve options was carried out. Both options provide a standard of defence from 1 in 50 return year event; therefore they are not incremental against each other. Nonetheless, in the eventuality of both options being preferred against Sustain, it will be necessary to decide which of them is preferred in relation to the other.

The CRWG was run for these two options, and it became clear after some time that the software could not find a set of weights where Improve-sand would be preferred against Improve-shingle. This result is potentially related to the fact that there is not many differences between the scores of these two options, both of them scoring significantly highly, but the Improve-sand option is significantly more costly than Improve-shingle. In other words it is difficult to justify the increase in costs on the basis of small differences in benefits.

Section 6: Weighting 23 7. Comparison of options

7.1 Selecting the preferred option

The selection of the preferred option in the MCA-based methodology follows, in general terms, the decision-making process principles set out in the FCDPAG 3 but it extends them to allow the inclusion of intangible benefits.

In simple terms, the decision making process in the MCA-based methodology is based around the option with the highest benefit-cost ratio, with higher options only selected if their incremental benefit-cost ratio exceeds a set threshold or if the intangible benefits are enough to take the initial incremental benefit-cost ratio over the set threshold.

For Dymchurch, there are five options including the ‘do-nothing’ option. The results of the monetary costs and benefits and the summary of the results of the CRWG analysis of the different options are presented in Table 7.1.

Table 7.1: Summary table of monetary costs and benefits Costs and benefits £k Do- Improve Improve Maintain Sustain nothing Shingle Sand Total PV costs from estimates (including optimism bias at 60%) 3,360 51,680 61,760 90,400 PV damage PVd 213,811 87,122 29,067 5,323 5,323 PV damage avoided 126,689 184,743 208,488 208,488 Total PV benefits PVb 126,689 184,743 208,488 208,488 Net Present Value NPV 123,329 133,063 146,728 151,988 Average benefit/cost ratio 37.70 3.57 3.38 2.31 Incremental benefit/cost ratio 1.20 2.36 0.61 Required Incremental benefit/cost ratio 1.5 1.5 1.5* Estimated minimum required extra benefits to move to higher option 14,400# - 58,000## k min (per point) from CRWG 3,300 - 720 Notes: * Since the ‘improve’ options only take the standard to the edge of the indicative standard of defence, it was considered that the required incremental benefit-cost ration was still 1.5, instead of 3; # Calculated from the difference in costs between Sustain and Maintain (£51,680k - £3,360k) multiplied by the required incremental benefit-cost ratio (1.5); ## Calculated from the difference in costs between Improve-Sand and Sustain (£90,400k - £51,680k) multiplied by the required incremental benefit-cost ratio (1.5).

The option with the highest benefit-cost ratio is Maintain (37.7), hence, this is the starting point for selecting the preferred option. The incremental benefit-cost ratio of Sustain is 1.2, which is not considered robustly greater than 1 based on the monetised benefits. The intangible benefits must be worth at least £14.4

24 Section 7: Comparison of options million, to increase the incremental benefit-cost ratio of Sustain over Maintain to 1.5 (see Table 7.1).

The CRWG results show that the Sustain option achieves an overall incremental benefit cost ratio of greater than 1.5 when k min is £3.3 million. This is quite a high value and needs to be considered in the context of the difference in points between the weighted scores of the competing options.

The use of the CRWG means that the weighted scores for the options are not available. However, consideration of the AST shows that the only differences between the Maintain and Sustain options relate to the social impacts categories, in particular the ‘health and safety’ and ‘availability and accessibility of services’ categories. This information in addition to examples of the economic values associated with similar impacts or activities can assist in determining whether the required k per point value appears reasonable.

The comparator table (Table 6.1 in the FD2013/PR) sets out some examples of the financial or economic value associated with different impacts or activities. These are given here to aid thinking processes. The values can be compared against the impact category scores (and other information recorded in the AST) to provide a context for deciding whether or not an implied k value of protecting a habitat, for example, would appear reasonable.

The estimates relating to health and safety in the comparator table suggest that expenditure per household per year on law and security is £1,160 and on health is £3,600 per household per year. Hence, a figure of £4,760 per household per year is used to indicate the value of health and safety to local residents. For the health and safety impacts to be worth at least £3,300,000 (k min calculated by the CRWG), a total of 693 properties must be flooded over the 100-year time horizon.

Maintain offers a standard of defence of 1 in 10 reducing to 1 in 3 over time and Sustain offers a standard of defence of 1 in 10 throughout the 100-year time horizon. Therefore, the difference between the Maintain and Sustain options occurs for flood events greater than 1 in 3 but less than 1 in 10. A 1 in 9 year flood would be expected to occur, on average, 11 times over a 100-year time horizon. It is known (from the AST) that on each event, 2,471 residential properties would be affected by the flood. If the health and safety value is £4,760 per property and 11 floods occur over the 100-year time horizon, the indicative total damages can be estimated at almost £130 million. This suggests that it is not unreasonable to assume that the Sustain option is justified.

Nonetheless, it may also be appropriate to obtain weights from local stakeholders to confirm the importance of the social impacts. This would allow weighted scores to be calculated and a more precise indication to be estimated of the level of intangible benefits required to make Sustain the preferred option.

Section 7: Comparison of options 25 Option 4 – Improve with shingle (1 in 50)

If the Sustain option is justified, the analysis proceeds to consideration of the incremental benefits of moving to Option 4, improve with shingle. Because Option 4 represents an increase to the minimum indicative standard for the area (but not above), it requires an incremental benefit-cost ratio of greater than 1.5 to be justified.

As it can be seen in Table 7.1, incremental benefit-cost ratio is 2.36, therefore this option is justified on economic arguments alone and no additional intangible benefits are required.

Option 5 – Improve with sand (1:50)

Having identified that Option 4 was likely to be justified, the next consideration was whether Option 5, improve with sand could be justified. Option 5 offers a standard of defence of 1 in 50 for the area, i.e. the same as Option 4. Hence, Improve with Sand is only incremental over Sustain and, therefore, to be justified it must also achieve an overall incremental benefit-cost ratio of greater than 1.5.

As it can be seen in Table 7.1, the incremental benefit-cost ratio for this option is 0.61. In order to raise this to 1.5, the minimum value of the intangible benefits required is £58 million.

With no constraints operating on the relative magnitude of weights, the CRWG analysis identified that Option 5 can only be justified when k is greater than an absolute minimum of £720,000. Here k relates to a per point difference in the weighted scores of the two options, rather than a total value as previously given.

The Improve with Sand option is scored as the best option for all categories (i.e. has an unweighted score of 100). Therefore, there are considerable differences in intangible benefits between Option 5 and Sustain for all impact categories with the exception of the ‘sense of community’ where both options score the same. Given the quantity of differences between the two options, it is considered that a weight elicitation exercise is required to assess the relative importance of the categories. This will allow the weighted scores to be calculated and the value of the indicative benefits required to allow Option 5 (improve-sand) to be preferred over Sustain.

The information gathered from the weight elicitation exercise will also be important when considering the relative benefits of Option 4 (improve-shingle) against Option 5 (improve-sand), as differences between these two options are only reflected in the intangible scores. For the weight elicitation exercise to be valuable in identifying the differences between Options 4 and 5 it would also need to focus on the relative importance of ‘landscape and visual amenity’, ‘equity’ and ‘business development’.

26 Section 7: Comparison of options 8. References

Babtie Group (2003): High Knock to Dymchurch Redoubt Sea Defence Scheme – Environmental Scoping Study, Internal Working Paper, Revision II, October 2003.

Babtie Brown & Root (2003): High Knock to Dymchurch Redoubt Communication Plan – Draft R02.

Environment Agency (2004): Project Appraisal Report for the High Knocke to Dymchurch Redoubt Sea Defences, Environment Agency Southern Region, April 2004.

HR Wallingford (2001): Folkestone to Rye Coastal Defence Strategy Study – Main Report, report downloaded from Folkestone to Rye Coastal Defence Strategy Internet site (http://www.folkestone-rye.net).

HR Wallingford (2001): Folkestone to Rye Coastal Defence Strategy Study – Executive Summary, report downloaded from Folkestone to Rye Coastal Defence Strategy Internet site (http://www.folkestone-rye.net).

HR Wallingford (2003): Contingent Valuation Method Survey – Dymchurch (Draft), Report EX 4670, February 2003.

Roncarati Research Group (2002): Dymchurch Beach Users Survey, report prepared for HR Wallingford Ltd, September/October 2002.

Section 8: References 27 Appendix B3.1

Appraisal summary table for high level Screening – S-AST for Dymchurch sea defence scheme

28 Section 8: References Table B3.1.1: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – high level screening Project name Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Redoubt. Assumptions The high level screening will correspond to the ‘do-nothing’ option.

Impact Impact likely? Impact Details category (Y/N) valuation Monetary quantitative Qualitative / assessment

Economic impacts • potential flooding of high density housing in Dymchurch village and nearby coastal strip high density housing north and south due to breach or heavy overtopping between High Knock and Dymchurch Redoubt; • potential impact of holiday camps, industrial and business developments due to breach or heavy overtopping between High Knock and Dymchurch Redoubt; • potential impact to car parks (MU 18/7 – 18/10); • potential impact to caravan site in Holiday Park (?); • potential impact to drains and sewers of the urban and Assets Y countryside area; 3 • potential impact to the Marshland outfall (MU 18/7 – 18/10) • potential impact to High Knocke and Dymchurch slipway (MU 18/7 – 18/10); • potential impact to Willtop pumping station (MU 18/11 – 18/13); • potential impact Willtop and Grand Redoubt outfalls (MU 18/11 – 18/13); • potential impact to Ogarswick landfill site (MU 18/11 – 18/13); • potential impact to schools, churches and other public buildings in Dymchurch and surrounding villages; • potential impact to Grade 3 agricultural land in the northern section of the study area, which extends to the coast at Land use Y Dymchurch Redoubt; 3 • potential impact to Grade 1 and 2 agricultural land in Romney Marsh; • wave overtopping can cause disruption to traffic on the A259(T), between High Knock and Dymchurch Redoubt; • potential permanent impact on the A259, between High Knock and Dymchurch Redoubt; Transport N • potential impact to a number of minor roads crossing Romney Marsh and connecting villages and farms; • potential impact to the Romney, Hythe and Dymchurch Railway landward of the A259; potential impacts of tourism industry in general. Business • Y development 3

Appendix B3.1 29 Table B3.1.1: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – high level screening Project name Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Redoubt. Assumptions The high level screening will correspond to the ‘do-nothing’ option.

Impact Impact likely? Impact Details category (Y/N) valuation Monetary quantitative Qualitative / assessment

Environmental impacts • potential impact to SNCI located at Dymchurch, consisting of a small area of relic grazing marsh and provides one of the only areas which as not been converted to arable and hosts several rare and scarce species of flora and fauna; • potential impact to freshwater dykes that run through the marshy grassland, exhibiting fresh water flora, water voles, yellowhammer and sedge wabler; • potential impact to the Site of Nature Conservation Interest (SNCI) at Hythe Ranges (outside the study area but adjoins the northern boundary). The site comprises of shingle Physical Y backed by grassland and scrub (used by MOD) and hosts habitats 3 several rare and scarce species of flora and fauna (vegetated shingle is a BAP priority habitat); • potential impact to vegetated shingle that constitutes a priority habitat under the Biodiversity Action Plan; • potential impact to the sandy shores of Dymchurch which are used by shorebirds for roosting sites; • potential impact to Romney Warren SSSI and pLNR; • potential impact on natural spawning and nursery grounds for many species of fish (for example lemon sole, sole, sprat and mackerel); • potential impact to coastal waters quality during construction; Water quality Y 3 • potential impact to coastal waters quality during flooding due to increased flushing of agricultural land; Water quantity N

Natural N processes • potential impact to Martello Tower and Dymchurch Redoubt both Schedule Ancient Monuments; • potential impact to 9 monuments listed on the Sites and Monuments Register; • potential damage to two Conservation Areas within Dymchurch; • potential impact to 22 listed buildings within the Civil Parish Historical of Dymchurch; Y th 3 environment • potential impact to 13 Century sea wall; • potential impact to Fort Lodge, World War II underground operational post and Saxon site; • potential site of high archaeological potential located near Dymchurch can be damaged under do-nothing; • potential impact to ancient churches in Romney Marsh; • potential impact to potential evidence for Roman settlements in Romney Marsh;

30 Appendix B3.1 Table B3.1.1: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – high level screening Project name Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Redoubt. Assumptions The high level screening will correspond to the ‘do-nothing’ option.

Impact Impact likely? Impact Details category (Y/N) valuation Monetary quantitative Qualitative / assessment

• potential impact to the beach feature at Dymchurch which is a key feature in the landscape; potential impact to cultural landmarks (such as churches, Landscape and • Y barns, etc.) (also considered in heritage); visual amenity 3 • potential impact to Romney Marsh (also considered in agriculture); • potential impact amenity if sand beach loses quality; Social impacts • potential impact to slipways at Dymchurch and High Knocke; • potential impact to other water sports that occur in the area such as jet skiing; • potential impact to bait digging activities; • potential impact to angling activity occurring in the area; potential impact to Romney, Hythe and Dymchurch Recreation Y • Railway, MW’s amusement park, Martello Tower 24, two 3 caravan parks and an Holiday Village; • potential impact to promenade on top of sea wall; • potential impact to several accesses to beach (steps over sea wall); • potential impact through the Town centre; • potential impact to Lathe Barn Farm; • potential risk to local population from flooding and breaching of defences; Health and potential impacts of stress and anxiety to local population Y • safety from possibility flooding and/or breaching of defences; 3 • potential safety impacts due to state of defences to local population • potential loss of accessibility to services due to flooding of A259 and rural and local roads. Availability and • potential loss of availability of services due to flooding of accessibility of Y local facilities (churches, schools, hospital, etc.). 3 services • potential loss of tourism facilities may have a knock-on effect on local shops, business, etc., that may result in loss of services to local people (and to visitors to the area).; potential increase deprivation in an area that relies on Equity Y • income from tourism and recreation; 3 Sense of potential loss to daily life routine due to flooding of city Y • community centre; 3

Cross-cutting impacts

Policy N integration

Appendix B3.1 31 Appendix B3.2:

Appraisal summary table for main assessment – MA-AST for the Dymchurch sea defence scheme

32 Appendix B3.2 Table B3.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Project name Redoubt. Description of option ‘DO-NOTHING’ Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although Description of area the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under the affected by option current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 15 years. Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary

Economic impacts

2471 dwellings will be flood damage, 1147 of which would be written off (level of damage would Flooding of residential and exceed value of the industrial properties, including property). car parks, schools, churches Average value of and other public buildings in property: £167,000 Dymchurch village and nearby (Draft PAR, EA 2004). coastal strip due to breach or heavy overtopping between 3 holiday parks High Knock and Dymchurch (excluding caravans) Damages Redoubt. will be affected. One is a Special Park and of £197m Flooding/loss of tourism will be written-off, with business developments and a lost value of (£25m holiday camps in Dymchurch £808,000 and the from Assets Y village and nearby coastal strip other two will be - intermittent due to breach or heavy flooded frequently flooding overtopping between High (further away from the and Knock and Dymchurch Redoubt. frontage) with a £172m of write-off Flooding/erosion of drains and recurrent damage losses) sewers of the urban and value of £65,000. countryside area, including the 927 caravans will be Marshland, Willtop and Grand lost if not moved. Redoubt outfalls. Assuming a value of Flooding/erosion of High £2000 per caravan Knocke and Dymchurch slipway (HR Wallingford, and of the Willtop pumping 2001) the total value station. lost is 1.8 million. Replacement costs of outfalls and pumping stations: £200,000. Total replacement cost is £800,000. This

Appendix B3.2 33 Table B3.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Project name Redoubt. Description of option ‘DO-NOTHING’ Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although Description of area the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under the affected by option current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 15 years. Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary value is a conservative estimate as it does not include drains and sewers on the urban and countryside area. Considering a value According to the draft PAR, of £387 per ha for 7672 ha of agricultural land loss of output for a (included (Grade 3) will be at risk from single year of grade 1 in the flooding. In addition, 113 ha of Land use Y land , the total loss - monetary the land in Romney Marsh SSSI value for Romney value of will also be flooded (this will be Marsh is assets) considered to be Grade 1 approximately agricultural land). £44,000. Depending on whether the roads of Flooding of the A259, between the Marsh are High Knock and Dymchurch passable or not, the Redoubt. total marginal Transport Y - £3m Flooding of a number of minor resource costs of roads crossing Romney Marsh diverting traffic from and connecting villages and the A259, assuming farms. 12h of disruption is between £3,551 and £9,353. Loss of beach and tourist facilities is likely to have knock- on impact on economy of the area town (which relies to a large extent on tourism and Business Y recreation) such that business 0/55 development development is also likely to be reduced. The Dymchurch shopping area, for example, is close to the sea front. However, along the coast there are other businesses centres.

34 Appendix B3.2 Table B3.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Project name Redoubt. Description of option ‘DO-NOTHING’ Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although Description of area the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under the affected by option current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 15 years. Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary

Environmental impacts

Flooding of the Site of Nature Conservation Interest (SNCI) located behind Dymchurch village, consisting of a small area of relic grazing marsh and providing one of the only areas which as not been converted to arable and hosts several rare and scarce species of flora and fauna; Potential flooding of freshwater dykes that run through the marshy grassland, exhibiting fresh water flora, water voles, yellowhammer and sedge warbler; Physical Flooding of the SNCI at Hythe Y - habitats Ranges (outside the study area but adjoins the northern boundary). The site comprises of shingle backed by grassland and scrub (used by MOD) and hosts several rare and scarce species of flora and fauna (vegetated shingle is a BAP priority habitat); Erosion of vegetated shingle that constitutes a priority habitat under the Biodiversity Action Plan. Erosion to the sandy shores of Dymchurch that are used by shorebirds for roosting sites. Impact to Romney Warren SSSI

Appendix B3.2 35 Table B3.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Project name Redoubt. Description of option ‘DO-NOTHING’ Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although Description of area the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under the affected by option current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 15 years. Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary and pLNR. Impact on natural spawning and nursery grounds for many species of fish (for example lemon sole, sole, sprat and mackerel). Deterioration of defences may impair water quality status. Water quality Y Impact to coastal waters quality 0/1 during flooding due to increased flushing of agricultural land. Water quantity N - -

Natural N - - processes

Erosion of Martello Tower and Dymchurch Redoubt both Schedule Ancient Monuments (SAM). Potential Loss of: Flooding/erosion to 9 2 SAMs; monuments listed on the Sites 9 Registered and Monuments Register; Monuments; Flooding to two Conservation 2 Conservation Areas within Dymchurch, the Areas; (included Church Area and the High in the Historical Street Area, and 22 listed 22 Listed Buildings; Y th - monetary environment buildings. Seawall from 13 Century; value of Erosion of the sea wall that assets) dates back to the 13th Century 1 Saxon Site; and of Fort Lodge, World War II 1 high archaeological underground operational post potential site. and Saxon site. Nominal value of £2m Impact on site of high for each (HR archaeological potential located Wallingford, 2001) near Dymchurch. Impact to ancient churches and evidence of Roman settlements

36 Appendix B3.2 Table B3.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Project name Redoubt. Description of option ‘DO-NOTHING’ Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although Description of area the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under the affected by option current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 15 years. Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary in Romney Marsh. Erosion of beach at Dymchurch, which is a key feature in the landscape and amenity of the area. Landscape and Y Impact to cultural landmarks 0/1 visual amenity (such as churches, barns, etc.) (also considered in historical environment). Impact to Romney Marsh (also considered in land use). Social impacts

Erosion of slipways at Loss of promenade Dymchurch and High Knocke, on top of seawall. with impact on in water activities Assuming 160,000 such as sailing, fishing, etc. visits to the town per Impact to Romney, Hythe and year (HR Wallingford, Dymchurch Railway, MW’s 2003) with willingness amusement park, Martello to pay of £3.59 per Tower 24, two caravan parks visit (based on Recreation Y and an Holiday Village; deterioration in beach - £14m and promenade in Erosion of to promenade on top Multi-Coloured of sea wall with impact on Manual, from study in recreational activities such as Yellow Manual) gives walking, sight seeing. In lost annual value to addition the access to the beach recreation of: over the sea wall would be lost. 160,000 x £3.59 = £574,400 per year Risk to local population from flooding and breaching of defences; Health and Y Stress and anxiety to local 0/1 safety population from possibility flooding and/or breaching of defences; Potential health and safety

Appendix B3.2 37 Table B3.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Project name Redoubt. Description of option ‘DO-NOTHING’ Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although Description of area the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under the affected by option current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 15 years. Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary issues if defences deteriorate and no warning signs are out in place. Potential loss of accessibility to services due to flooding of A259 and rural and local roads. Potential loss of availability of services due to flooding of local Availability and facilities (churches, schools, accessibility of Y hospital, etc.). 0/1 services Loss of tourism facilities may have a knock-on effect on local shops, business, etc., that may result in loss of services to local people (and to visitors to the area). Loss of facilities, both for tourists and locals, is likely to result in local job losses and may increase deprivation in an Equity Y area that relies on income from 0/65 tourism. Loss of beach access would also affect recreation in the area (again for visitors and locals) and would reduce the quality of life. Loss of businesses, Sense of Y employment and some 0/54 community properties is likely to reduce the sense of community. Cross-cutting impacts

Policy N - - integration

38 Appendix B3.2 Table B3.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Redoubt. MAINTAIN - DO MINIMUM (current annual maintenance reactive works to sea wall, Description of and groyne field to maintain a standard of defence of 1 in 10, reducing overtime to 1 option in 3). Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor Description of condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although the former is only present area affected over the southern half of the frontage. Under the current defence policy the standard by option of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary Economic impacts

Protection of residential and industrial properties, including car parks, schools, churches and other public buildings in Dymchurch village and nearby coastal strip to a standard of 1 in 10 years, reducing to 1 in 3 over time. Protection of tourism business developments and holiday camps in Dymchurch village and Intermittent nearby coastal strip to a flooding of: standard of 1 in 10 years, 2471 dwellings; Damages Assets Y reducing to 1 in 3 over time. - 3 holiday parks; of 46m Protection of drains and sewers of the urban and countryside 927 caravans; area, including the Marshland, Willtop and Grand Redoubt outfalls to a standard of 1 in 10 years, reducing to 1 in 3 over time. Protection of erosion of High Knocke and Dymchurch slipway and of the Willtop pumping station to a standard of 1 in 10 years, reducing to 1 in 3 over time. No change in current land use in the medium term, but (included progressively more frequent in the Land use Y flooding of agricultural land due - monetary to overtopping of defence s value of could mean land use change in assets) the long term.

Appendix B3.2 39 Table B3.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Redoubt. MAINTAIN - DO MINIMUM (current annual maintenance reactive works to sea wall, Description of and groyne field to maintain a standard of defence of 1 in 10, reducing overtime to 1 option in 3). Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor Description of condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although the former is only present area affected over the southern half of the frontage. Under the current defence policy the standard by option of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary Protection of the A259, between High Knock and Dymchurch Redoubt to a standard of 1 in 10 years, reducing to 1 in 3 over Transport Y time. - £41m Protection of a number of minor roads crossing Romney Marsh and connecting villages and farms. The tourism business would be protected to the current level of protection with no significant impacts. Over time there may Business Y be some impacts on the 70/85 development economy of the area as a knock-on effect from frequent flooding of tourist and local facilities.

40 Appendix B3.2 Table B3.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Redoubt. MAINTAIN - DO MINIMUM (current annual maintenance reactive works to sea wall, Description of and groyne field to maintain a standard of defence of 1 in 10, reducing overtime to 1 option in 3). Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor Description of condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although the former is only present area affected over the southern half of the frontage. Under the current defence policy the standard by option of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary Environmental

Impacts Protection of the Site of Nature Conservation Interest (SNCI) located at Dymchurch and the SNCI at Hythe Ranges to a 1in 10 standard of defence, reducing to 1 in 3 over time. In the long term there may be some impacts to the small area of relic grazing (Dymchurch) due to more frequent flooding; Protection of freshwater dykes to a 1 in 10 standard of defence, reducing to 1 in 3 over time. In the long term there may be some impacts to the freshwater dykes due frequent flooding;. Physical Y Protection of the Romney - habitats Warren SSSI and pLNR. Protection of vegetated shingle that constitutes a priority habitat under the Biodiversity Action Plan. Because this option does not include replacement of the groyne fields there may be some erosion of the sandy shores of Dymchurch and the vegetated shingle in the long term, as well as impacts on the natural spawning and nursery grounds for many species of fish (for example lemon sole, sole, sprat and mackerel).

Appendix B3.2 41 Table B3.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Redoubt. MAINTAIN - DO MINIMUM (current annual maintenance reactive works to sea wall, Description of and groyne field to maintain a standard of defence of 1 in 10, reducing overtime to 1 option in 3). Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor Description of condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although the former is only present area affected over the southern half of the frontage. Under the current defence policy the standard by option of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary If one assumes that the water quality will be only influenced by the There will be some impacts on occurrence of the water quality due to Water quality Y overtopping, the 20/20 overtopping of defences and impact existence flushing of agricultural land. will depend on the probability of flooding, which in this case is 0.1. Water quantity N - - Natural N - - processes Protection to a 1 in 10 standard of defence, reducing to 1 in 3 over time of Martello Tower and Dymchurch Redoubt both Schedule Ancient Monuments (SAM), 9 monuments listed on the Sites and Monuments Register, two Conservation Areas within Dymchurch, 22 listed buildings, on site of high (included in the Historical archaeological potential located Y - monetary Environment near Dymchurch and of ancient churches and evidence of value of Roman settlements in Romney assets) Marsh. In the long term there may be some impacts to these structures due to more frequent flooding. This option will repair the sea wall as and when necessary, however it still may lose some of its historical interest as the 13th

42 Appendix B3.2 Table B3.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Redoubt. MAINTAIN - DO MINIMUM (current annual maintenance reactive works to sea wall, Description of and groyne field to maintain a standard of defence of 1 in 10, reducing overtime to 1 option in 3). Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor Description of condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although the former is only present area affected over the southern half of the frontage. Under the current defence policy the standard by option of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary century material is substituted by present day cement. Protection of cultural landmarks (such as churches, barns, etc.) (also considered in historical environment) and of Romney Marsh (also considered in land use). Landscape and Y 86/86 visual amenity Because this option does not include replacement of the groyne field, in the long term there may be erosion of beach at Dymchurch, which is a key feature in the landscape and amenity of the area. Social impacts Protection of slipways at Dymchurch and High Knocke, Romney, Hythe and Dymchurch Railway, MW’s amusement No loss of park, Martello Tower 24, two recreation in the Recreation Y - 0 caravan parks a Holiday Village short and and promenade and beach medium term. access to a standard of protection to 1 in 10 years, reducing to 1 in 3 over time. Health and safety issues would Health and Y no longer be an issue as 12/12 safety defences are repaired.

Appendix B3.2 43 Table B3.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Redoubt. MAINTAIN - DO MINIMUM (current annual maintenance reactive works to sea wall, Description of and groyne field to maintain a standard of defence of 1 in 10, reducing overtime to 1 option in 3). Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor Description of condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although the former is only present area affected over the southern half of the frontage. Under the current defence policy the standard by option of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary Protection of accessibility and availability of services (A259 and rural and local roads, local facilities, tourist facilities) to a 1 Availability and in 10 standard, reducing to 1 in accessibility of Y 12/12 3 over time. As the flooding services becomes more frequent in the long term, the availability and accessibility of services may become an issue once more. No significant impacts on equity would be observed under this option. However, as the Equity Y 79/79 flooding becomes more frequent in the long term, equity may become an issue once more. No significant impacts on equity would be observed under this option. However, as the Sense of Y flooding becomes more frequent 100/100 community in the long term, sense of community may become an issue once more. Cross-cutting impacts Policy N - - Integration

44 Appendix B3.2 Table B3.2.3 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Project name Redoubt. SUSTAIN (current maintenance works to sea wall and groyne field, taking Description of option into account sea level rise. Standard of Defence 1 in 10). Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although Description of area the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under the affected by option current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description likely? impacts category of impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary Economic impacts

Protection of residential and industrial properties, including car parks, schools, churches and other public buildings in Dymchurch village and nearby coastal strip to a standard of 1 in 10 years. Protection of tourism business developments and holiday camps in Intermittent Dymchurch village and flooding of: nearby coastal strip to a 2471 dwellings; Damages of Assets Y standard of 1 in 10 years. - 3 holiday parks; 14m Protection of drains and sewers of the urban and 927 caravans; countryside area, including the Marshland, Willtop and Grand Redoubt outfalls to a standard of 1 in 10 years. Protection of erosion of High Knocke and Dymchurch slipway and of the Willtop pumping station to a standard of 1 in 10 years. (included in the Land use Y No change in current land. - monetary value of assets)

Appendix B3.2 45 Table B3.2.3 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Project name Redoubt. SUSTAIN (current maintenance works to sea wall and groyne field, taking Description of option into account sea level rise. Standard of Defence 1 in 10). Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although Description of area the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under the affected by option current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description likely? impacts category of impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary Protection of the A259, between High Knock and Dymchurch Redoubt to a standard of 1 in 10 years. Transport Y Protection of a number of - Damages£15m minor roads crossing Romney Marsh and connecting villages and farms. The tourism business Business would be protected to the Y 70/85 development current level of protection with no significant impacts. Environmental

Impacts Protection of the Site of Nature Conservation Interest (SNCI) located at Dymchurch and the SNCI at Hythe Ranges to a 1 in Physical Y 10 standard of defence. - habitats Protection of freshwater dykes, vegetated shingle Romney Warren SSSI and pLNR to a 1in 10 standard of defence.

46 Appendix B3.2 Table B3.2.3 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Project name Redoubt. SUSTAIN (current maintenance works to sea wall and groyne field, taking Description of option into account sea level rise. Standard of Defence 1 in 10). Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although Description of area the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under the affected by option current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description likely? impacts category of impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary If one assumes that the water quality will be only influenced There will be some by the impacts on the water occurrence of Water quality Y quality due to overtopping overtopping, the 20/20 of defences and flushing impact existence of agricultural land. will depend on the probability of flooding, which in this case is 0.1. Water quantity N - - Natural N - - processes Protection to a 1in 10 standard of defence of Martello Tower and Dymchurch Redoubt both Schedule Ancient Monuments (SAM), 9 monuments listed on the Sites and Monuments Register, two Conservation Areas within (included in the Historical Dymchurch, 22 listed Y - monetary value Environment buildings, on site of high of assets) archaeological potential located near Dymchurch and of ancient churches and evidence of Roman settlements in Romney Marsh. In the long term there may be some impacts to these structures due to more frequent flooding.

Appendix B3.2 47 Table B3.2.3 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Project name Redoubt. SUSTAIN (current maintenance works to sea wall and groyne field, taking Description of option into account sea level rise. Standard of Defence 1 in 10). Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although Description of area the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under the affected by option current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description likely? impacts category of impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary Protection of cultural landmarks (such as churches, barns, etc.) (also considered in historical environment) and of Romney Marsh Landscape and Y (also considered in land 86/86 visual amenity use). Protection of beach from erosion at Dymchurch, which is a key feature in the landscape and amenity of the area. Social impacts Protection of slipways at Dymchurch and High Knocke, Romney, Hythe and Dymchurch Railway, No loss of MW’s amusement park, recreation in the Recreation Y Martello Tower 24, two - Damages£0 short and caravan parks a Holiday medium term. Village and promenade and beach access to a standard of protection to 1 in 10 years. Health and safety issues Health and would no longer be an Y 20/20 safety issue as defences are repaired. Protection of accessibility and availability of services Availability and (A259 and rural and local accessibility of Y 20/20 roads, local facilities, services tourist facilities) to a 1 in 10 standard.

48 Appendix B3.2 Table B3.2.3 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Project name Redoubt. SUSTAIN (current maintenance works to sea wall and groyne field, taking Description of option into account sea level rise. Standard of Defence 1 in 10). Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although Description of area the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under the affected by option current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description likely? impacts category of impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary No significant impacts on Equity Y equity would be observed 86/86 under this option. No significant impacts on Sense of Y equity would be observed 100/100 community under this option Cross-cutting impacts Policy N - - integration

Appendix B3.2 49 Table B3.2.4 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Project name Dymchurch Redoubt. IMPROVE with Shingle - Shingle beach recharge, structural work to Description of option upper wall and terminal rock groynes. Standard of Defence will be raised to 1 in 50. Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although Description of area the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under affected by option the current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description likely? impacts category of impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary Economic impacts

Protection of residential and industrial properties, including car parks, schools, churches and other public buildings in Dymchurch village and nearby coastal strip to a standard of 1 in 50 years. Protection of tourism business developments Occasional and holiday camps in flooding of: Dymchurch village and 2471 dwellings; nearby coastal strip to a Damages Assets Y - standard of 1 in 50 years. 3 holiday parks; £2m Protection of drains and 927 caravans; sewers of the urban and countryside area, including the Marshland, Willtop and Grand Redoubt outfalls to a standard of 1 in 50 years. Protection of High Knocke and Dymchurch slipway and of the Willtop pumping station to a standard of 1 in 50 years. (included in the No change in current Land use Y - monetary land. value of assets)

50 Appendix B3.2 Table B3.2.4 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Project name Dymchurch Redoubt. IMPROVE with Shingle - Shingle beach recharge, structural work to Description of option upper wall and terminal rock groynes. Standard of Defence will be raised to 1 in 50. Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although Description of area the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under affected by option the current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description likely? impacts category of impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary Protection of the A259, between High Knock and Dymchurch Redoubt to a standard of 1 in 50 years. Damages Transport Y Protection of a number of £3m minor roads crossing Romney Marsh and connecting villages and farms. There would be no impacts on business development from policy of improving defences, with potential for increased development. Business Y There is also potential for 81/86 development opportunities for new business, as the beach would change from sand to shingle and potentially attracting a different type of user. Environmental impacts Protection of the Site of Nature Conservation Interest (SNCI) located at Dymchurch and the SNCI at Hythe Ranges to a 1 in Physical Y 50 standard of defence. - habitats Protection of freshwater dykes, vegetated shingle Romney Warren SSSI and pLNR to a 1in 50 standard of defence.

Appendix B3.2 51 Table B3.2.4 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Project name Dymchurch Redoubt. IMPROVE with Shingle - Shingle beach recharge, structural work to Description of option upper wall and terminal rock groynes. Standard of Defence will be raised to 1 in 50. Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although Description of area the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under affected by option the current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description likely? impacts category of impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary If one assumes that the water quality will be only There will be some influenced by the impacts on the water occurrence of Water quality Y quality due to overtopping overtopping, the 100/100 of defences and flushing impact existence of agricultural land. will depend on the probability of flooding, which in this case is 0.2. Water quantity N - - Natural N - - processes Protection to a 1in 50 standard of defence of Martello Tower and Dymchurch Redoubt both Schedule Ancient Monuments (SAM), 9 monuments listed on the (included in Sites and Monuments the Historical Register, two Y - monetary Environment Conservation Areas value of within Dymchurch, 22 assets) listed buildings, on site of high archaeological potential located near Dymchurch and of ancient churches and evidence of Roman settlements in Romney Marsh.

52 Appendix B3.2 Table B3.2.4 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Project name Dymchurch Redoubt. IMPROVE with Shingle - Shingle beach recharge, structural work to Description of option upper wall and terminal rock groynes. Standard of Defence will be raised to 1 in 50. Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although Description of area the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under affected by option the current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description likely? impacts category of impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary Protection of cultural landmarks (such as churches, barns, etc.) (also considered in historical environment) and of Romney Marsh (also considered in land use). Landscape and Y 66/66 visual amenity This option will create a significant change in the landscape from a traditionally sandy beach to a shingle beach. It is unlikely that such a change will have an impact on the visual amenity of the area. Social impacts Protection of slipways at Dymchurch and High Knocke, Romney, Hythe No loss of and Dymchurch Railway, recreation with MW’s amusement park, potential for Recreation Y Martello Tower 24, two - Damages£0 increase due to caravan parks a Holiday improved coastal Village and promenade defences. and beach access to a standard of protection to 1 in 50 years. Health and safety issues Health and would no longer be an Y 100/100 safety issue as defences are repaired and improved. Availability and Protection of accessibility Y 100/100 accessibility of and availability of services

Appendix B3.2 53 Table B3.2.4 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Project name Dymchurch Redoubt. IMPROVE with Shingle - Shingle beach recharge, structural work to Description of option upper wall and terminal rock groynes. Standard of Defence will be raised to 1 in 50. Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although Description of area the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under affected by option the current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description likely? impacts category of impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary services (A259 and rural and local roads, local facilities, tourist facilities) to a 1 in 50 standard. No significant impacts on Equity Y equity would be observed 93/93 under this option. No significant impacts on Sense of Y equity would be observed 100/100 community under this option Cross-cutting impacts Policy N - - integration

54 Appendix B3.2 Table B3.2.5 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Redoubt. Description of option IMPROVE with Sand –Sand beach recharge, structural work to upper wall and terminal rock groynes. Standard of Defence will be raised to 1 in 50. Description of area Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently affected by option protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under the current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary Economic impacts

Protection of residential and industrial properties, including car parks, schools, churches and other public buildings in Dymchurch village and nearby coastal strip to a standard of 1 in 50 years. Protection of tourism business developments Occasional flooding and holiday camps in of: Dymchurch village and 2471 dwellings; nearby coastal strip to a Damages of Assets Y - standard of 1 in 50 years. 3 holiday parks; 2m Protection of drains and 927 caravans; sewers of the urban and countryside area, including the Marshland, Willtop and Grand Redoubt outfalls to a standard of 1 in 50 years. Protection of High Knocke and Dymchurch slipway and of the Willtop pumping station to a standard of 1 in 50 years. (included in the Land use Y No change in current land. - monetary value of assets)

Appendix B3.2 55 Table B3.2.5 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Redoubt. Description of option IMPROVE with Sand –Sand beach recharge, structural work to upper wall and terminal rock groynes. Standard of Defence will be raised to 1 in 50. Description of area Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently affected by option protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under the current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary Protection of the A259, between High Knock and Dymchurch Redoubt to a standard of 1 in 50 years. Transport Y Protection of a number of - Damages£3 minor roads crossing Romney Marsh and connecting villages and farms. There would be no impacts on business development from policy of improving defences, with potential for increased development. Business Y There is also potential for 100/100 development opportunities for new business as the beach quality with improve with the recharge, attracting more tourists. Environmental impacts Protection of the Site of Nature Conservation Interest (SNCI) located at Dymchurch and the SNCI at Hythe Ranges to a 1 in Physical Y 50 standard of defence. - habitats Protection of freshwater dykes, vegetated shingle Romney Warren SSSI and pLNR to a 1in 50 standard of defence.

56 Appendix B3.2 Table B3.2.5 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Redoubt. Description of option IMPROVE with Sand –Sand beach recharge, structural work to upper wall and terminal rock groynes. Standard of Defence will be raised to 1 in 50. Description of area Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently affected by option protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under the current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary If one assumes that the water quality will be only There will be some influenced by the impacts on the water occurrence of Water quality Y quality due to overtopping overtopping, the 100/100 of defences and flushing of impact existence agricultural land. will depend on the probability of flooding, which in this case is 0.2. Water quantity N - - Natural N - - processes Protection to a 1in 50 standard of defence of Martello Tower and Dymchurch Redoubt both Schedule Ancient Monuments (SAM), 9 monuments listed on the (included in Sites and Monuments the Historical Y Register, two Conservation - monetary environment Areas within Dymchurch, value of 22 listed buildings, on site assets) of high archaeological potential located near Dymchurch and of ancient churches and evidence of Roman settlements in Romney Marsh.

Appendix B3.2 57 Table B3.2.5 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Redoubt. Description of option IMPROVE with Sand –Sand beach recharge, structural work to upper wall and terminal rock groynes. Standard of Defence will be raised to 1 in 50. Description of area Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently affected by option protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under the current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary Protection of cultural landmarks (such as churches, barns, etc.) (also considered in historical environment) and of Romney Marsh (also considered in land Landscape and Y use). 100/100 visual amenity This option may potentially improve the landscape and visual amenity of the area, as it will improve the quality of the sandy beach which is a main feature of the area. Social impacts Protection of slipways at Dymchurch and High Knocke, Romney, Hythe No loss of and Dymchurch Railway, recreation with MW’s amusement park, potential for Damages of Recreation Y Martello Tower 24, two increase due to - £0 caravan parks a Holiday improved coastal Village and promenade defences, and and beach access to a beach quality. standard of protection to 1 in 50 years. Health and safety issues Health and would no longer be an Y 100/100 safety issue as defences are repaired and improved. Protection of accessibility and availability of services Availability and (A259 and rural and local accessibility of Y 100/100 roads, local facilities, services tourist facilities) to a 1 in 50 standard.

58 Appendix B3.2 Table B3.2.5 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Dymchurch Coastal Defence Strategy, from High Knocke and Dymchurch Redoubt. Description of option IMPROVE with Sand –Sand beach recharge, structural work to upper wall and terminal rock groynes. Standard of Defence will be raised to 1 in 50. Description of area Residential, commercial and recreational areas of Dymchurch currently affected by option protected by seawall. There are also old timber groyne fields, which are generally in poor condition. The beach and foreshore are sandy although the former is only present over the southern half of the frontage. Under the current defence policy the standard of defence provided less than 1 in 10 years. Without the present level of maintenance some sections of the seawall are likely to fail within 5 years. Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary No significant impacts on Equity Y equity would be observed 100/100 under this option. No significant impacts on Sense of Y equity would be observed 100/100 community under this option Cross-cutting impacts Policy N - - integration

Appendix B3.2 59 Joint Defra/EA Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management R&D Programme

Annex B.4:

Case study no.4:

Assessment of the River Chet flood alleviation scheme

R&D Project Record FD2013/PR2

Dissemination Status Internal: Released internally External: Released to public domain

Keywords: Multi criteria analysis, MCA, appraisal summary table, AST, decision rule

Acknowledgements The assistance of those providing information for the case studies is gratefully acknowledged.

Defra project manager: Matt Crossman, Defra, 3D Ergon House, Horseferry Rd, London, SW1P 2AL. Email: [email protected]

Publishing organisation Defra Flood Management Division Ergon House Horseferry Road London SW1P 2AL Tel: 020 7238 3000 Fax: 020 7238 6187 www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd

¬ Crown copyright (Defra); 2005

Published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Printed in the UK, March 2005 on recycled material containing 80% post-consumer waste and 20% totally chlorine free virgin pulp.

PB No. 10734/PR2 ISBN 0-85521-146-6

ii 1. Introduction

In May 2001 Broadland Environmental Services Limited (BESL) was awarded a long-term contract by the Environment Agency to improve and maintain flood defences in Broadland. The Agency’s approach to flood alleviation in Broadland was adopted in the 1990’s and is based on a strategy consisting mainly of back strengthening and erosion protection and reducing the risks of bank breaching. BESL has recently updated this strategy and it now sets the scene for how this and future improvement schemes are designed, programmed and carried out. Recent detailed surveys and monitoring confirm that improvements are needed to flood defences for the left bank of the River Chet (Chedgrave Common and Hardley Marshes). However, the BESL is also concerned with flood alleviation work on the opposite bank of the river, Compartment 22.

The River Chet is a navigable, embanked, tidal river, 7m to 20 m wide, and relatively deep. This report presents the MCA-based project appraisal process for the River Chet, part of Compartment 22, south bank from Pyes Mill to Nogdam End.

Our interest in the River Chet Defence Scheme is based on it being local scheme project that has been facing problems relating to conflict stakeholders. There seems to exist significant controversy in relation to which options to consider for appraisal. The information reported here is based on the following main documents:

• EA (1996a): Broadland Flood Alleviation Strategy Study, Bank Strengthening and Erosion Protection, Compartment 22 (Burgh Norton) Detailed Appraisal; • EA (1996b): Broadland Compartment 22, Local Environmental Assessment, Final Report; and • Halcrow (2003): draft Environmental Statement for the flood alleviation improvements for AU 2.

1.1 Summary of the project area

The River Chet runs for approximately 3.5 miles, from the Town of Loddon until it joins the River Yare, between Cantley and Reedham. The river is narrow in places, wooded at first, then as it nears Hardley Cross is becomes more canal like, with extensive grazing marshes and big skies.

The River Chet case study comprises the south bank of the River Chet from Pyes Mill to Nogdam End, which is part of Compartment 22 - Burgh Norton - of the Broadland Flood Alleviation Strategy. Also part of this Compartment is the right hand bank of the River Yare from the Chet to Haddiscoe Cut, Haddiscoe Cut south west bank, and the River Waveney left bank from Haddiscoe Cut to Burgh St Peter (EA, 1996). The flood and coastal defence management in the Broadland is covered under the Broadland Flood Alleviation Strategy (BFAS).

Section 1: Introduction 1 Compartment 22 is typical of Broadland, land use is almost 100% agriculture and the land is very low lying. The area is particularly susceptible to flooding, either from high freshwater river flows or more frequently high sea levels (EA, 1996).

The two main natural features to be highlighted and that would be threatened by flooding in the south bank of the River Chet are:

• the fresh water soke dykes which support a varied marginal and aquatic flora, including reed sweet grass, common reed, common duckweed and ivy-leave duckweed; and • wet woodland which occurs along the Chet Valley

Ronds (area between channel and the floodbank) are a local feature and provide a vital flood defence function in that they minimise erosion of the floodbank and provide additional water holding capacity during the high flows.

The River Chet, as part of Broadland, is one of the few remaining areas of lowland river valley grassland in Britain and considered to be ecologically unique in Europe. Characteristic species in the floodbank include common reed, common couch, creeping thistle, spear thistle, cleavers, nettle and bramble. Furthermore, the vegetation along the landward berm of the floodbank (i.e. the folding) is typically dominated by common reed along with creeping thistle, hemlock, nettle, false oat grass and couch grass. Notable species include marsh sow thistle and stands of marsh mallow. Notable habitats along the folding include occasional wet hallows, with areas of turf and saltmarsh in some sections. There are no nature conservation sites within the study area and the area has been designated an ESA by MAFF. However, Species Actions Plans exist for species present in the soke dykes, such as the water vole and floating water plantain. It is unclear at this point whether this species are present in the soke dykes of the River Chet.

Finally, it is worth noting that there are no schedule Ancient Monuments in the study area and there are no archaeological sites of interest.

1.2 Existing defences

In general, the existing frontline defences comprise earth embankments (floodbank), with a mixture of reed ronds, and a variety of erosion protection measures, such as piling, protecting some areas.

The embankments are generally in poor condition, being susceptible to seepage and, on occasion, to failure that can lead to breaching (NRA, 1995a in EA, 1996b). In addition, the floodbanks have settled since they were last improved and are now at risk of being overtopped by flood water on an event with a return period of once every five years or less (EA, 1996b).

2 Section 1: Introduction The defences in some areas are also threatened by undermining due to erosion at the edge of the river channel. Within the River Chet the erosion protection comprises of high level steel and timber piling along much of the riverbank, with some areas of unprotected reed rond. In many cases, the timber/steel piling is nearing the end of its useful life (residual life less than 10 years) and scour out of the bank behind is occurring. In other areas, the unprotected reed rond is rapidly eroding leaving the floodbank unprotected (EA, 1996b).

There is a double dyke intersection and crosswall at the upstream end of Nogdam End. The majority of the bank is made up of a narrow crest and steep backface, making it vulnerable to breaching when overtopped (Halcrow, 2003).

The overall standard of flood defence has progressively reduced due to settlement, age and the combined effects of erosion, corrosion and sea level rise. The standard of defence in the all Compartment varies from 1 in 1.5 to 1 in 5 years (EA, 1996a).

1.3 The policy framework

The Environment Agency’s approach for flood and coastal defence of the Broadland was adopted in the 1990’s in the Broadland Flood Alleviation Strategy (BFAS). The general aim of erosion protection and bank strengthening is to sustain the existing flood defences in the area for the next 50 years, i.e. to improve and subsequently maintain their condition without raising the long term standard of protection they provide (EA, 1996a).

In 2001, Broadland Environmental Services Limited (BESL) was commissioned by the Environment Agency (the Agency) in 2001 to carry out the Broadland Flood Alleviation Project, a long-term 20-year programme of sustainable flood defence maintenance and improvements.

Because the River Chet case study is part of the Broadland, its policy framework is somewhat different from the remaining case studies. Schemes under the BFAS do not follow the traditional flood and coastal defence project appraisal norms, namely in respect of funding allocation which comes directly from the government grant allocated to the Broadland area, rather than for individually justified schemes.

The BFAS constituted a high level assessment, using Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) as a decision-aiding tool. The BFAS proved conclusively, by consideration of loss avoidance, that the undertaking of works in the whole area is economically justified. Predicted future flooding patterns indicate that construction should start in the most seaward compartments of which Compartment 22 is one (EA, 1996a).

Under the Strategy, local flood alleviation schemes were subsequently developed for each compartment and a preferred flood defence option was recommended. Alternatives were subject to further environmental assessment through the production of non-statutory Local Environmental Assessment (LEA)

Section 1: Introduction 3 reports (Halcrow, 2003). In parallel, a detailed appraisal report was also developed for the recommended options for Compartment 22.

The LEA for Compartment 22 recommended that the flood defences should be sustained though a programme of bank strengthening, erosion protection and local set back, in line with the Strategy (Halcrow, 2003).

Finally, in order to identify the environmental risks and opportunities that may arise from the flood alleviation works in the Broads, the Agency carried out, in 1997, a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) which summarises the results of extensive consultation with interested parties and groups in the area as well as recommendations on how to deal with the key topics raised during the consultation.

1.4 List of stakeholders and interested parties

BESL has been working with local representatives by forming the Chet Liaison Group. Its specific purpose is to enable BESL to present evolving and emerging scheme details for informed discussion. Membership of the group comprises local people who have agreed to be representative of a cross section of interests. The Group has a valuable role in advising BESL about important issues that need to be addressed. Since the Group was inaugurated in January 2003, five meetings have been held, most recently on the 2nd of February when a wide-ranging report-back was given to the Liaison Group and to landowners separately (Halcrow, 2003).

In addition, BESL has been in detailed discussion about the proposals in the wider Chet valley with officers and members of the Broads Authority (BA) and English Nature, both key stakeholders and have consulted with the Chet Liaison Group on a regular basis. Table 1.1 lists the members of the Chet Liaison Group.

Table 1.1 Groups and individuals consulted on the Chet Liaison Group Organisation Number of representatives County councillors 1 District councillors 4 Parish councillors 6 Broads authority 2 English Nature 1 Boatyards/boat owners 2 Land owners/occupiers 2

4 Section 1: Introduction 2. Definition of objectives and management options

The BFAS defined both long term and short-term objectives for the Broads. The long-term objectives were (EA, 1996a):

• to sustain the integrity of the flood defences for the period of the strategy (50 years) therefore all current defended land will continue to be protected; • to ensure that all works undertaken as part of the strategy are sustainable; • to promote conservation of the natural environment; • to ensure continuation of navigation of the Broads, where flood defences may impact.

The short-term objectives were (EA, 1996a):

• to secure the defences within Compartment 22 so that the existing standard of defence is sustained for the next 15 years; • to ensure that the existing flood defence structures are stabilised to meet accepted factors of safety; and • to undertake works that mitigate the effects of continued erosion of the berm.

The Detailed Appraisal Report for Compartment 22 mentioned in section 1.3 (EA, 1996a) developed the findings and recommendations of the BFAS to give a detailed appraisal of flood alleviation works required for the next 50 years. Within this report, compartment wide issues, existing flood defence deficiencies, proposed solutions, constraints and detailed cost estimates are identified. Benefit scenarios were not developed since they had been fully covered by and unchanged from the BFAS.

For the River Chet (right hand bank) the options considered in Detailed Appraisal Study were (EA, 1996a):

• sustain along the existing line - the floodbanks would be widened to become more secure, and would be raised by 375 mm above average defence level of 1.3m AOD to counter effects of settlement and sea level rise over a 15 year period. This would necessitate moving the soke dyke behind the bank, and widening it; • sustain along set back line of defence - this option involves setting back the bank landward from its existing position; and • management retreat existing hard defences would be removed strategically, the bank in this area would be reprofiled and the river would be allowed to erode and accrete naturally until it met higher ground. Eventually the existing floodbanks would be eroded, and they would also continue to settle.

Section 2: Definition of objectives and management options 5 For the preferred option, and due to extensive amount of erosion protection required for the river, the Detail Appraisal Study (EA, 1996a) proposed to locally set back the bank from the most upstream point of Compartment 22 (near Loddon) to Nogdam End. The Cross bank at Nogdam End would need to be strengthened, and strengthening and erosion works along the existing line would continue downstream to Nogdam End. The bank would be set back a maximum of 25 m from the line of the river, including any existing rond. It was envisaged that a haul road would be constructed behind the works, and a new soke dyke would be created, set back from the new floodbank to allow for working area.

The Detailed Appraisal Study (EA, 1996a) does not consider the benefit scenarios of each option because these have already been covered in the BFAS. A detailed review of the Flood Alleviation Strategy makes clear that, although considerations about the benefits of each option were contemplated and a contingent valuation (CV) survey was carried out for recreational and amenity impacts, these considerations were not included in the assessment of options. The benefits valued for each option consisted of solely the damages avoided by doing something as opposed to doing nothing. This is a valid approach but totally ignores the majority of environmental and social benefits of options that, although not easily valued in monetary terms, should be taken into account in decision-making.

Recently, the BFAS has been being reviewed by BESL, this in parallel with the development of flood alleviation schemes for a number of Broad’s rivers, including the Chet. This revised BFAS is still not in the public domain.

Following from the BFAS, BESL divided the right hand bank of the River Chet into two different assessment units (AU):

• AU 1, running from Pyes Mill to Nogdam End (3.4 km) • AU 2, running from Nogdam End to the Yare confluence.

For AU 2, BESL proposes the following flood defence works:

• set back floodbank from Nogdam End to Ferry Road (including crosswall); and, • maintain defences as existing from Ferry Road to the Yare confluence.

These proposals went through public consultation in 2002, and the planning application was submitted in February 2004.

For AU 1 the process has been less straightforward.

BESL investigated the following options for flood defence from Pyes Mill to Nogdam End:

• do something - mostly reactive maintenance works. This option is still being considered for the short term;

6 Section 2: Definition of objectives and management options • renew as existing - considered to be not affordable; • set back floodbank - considered to be risky (technically) and has a high capital and maintenance cost; and • managed flooding to high ground - considered to be low maintenance and of lower risk, but changes to land use would still need consultation.

In addition, BESL is investigating sustainable long-term options, but none seem to be possible at present (BESL, 2003).

During the consultation group meeting (in which RPA participated as an observer) no details of economic, environmental and social costs and/or benefits were presented. In fact, the consultation process for this part of Compartment 22 has been characterised by strong conflict between stakeholders on opposite banks of the river and also between stakeholders and consultants.

In addition, for the option - managed flooding to high ground - BESL is aware that there exist very strong feelings for and against this option (in particular due to the fact that no compensation can be paid to landowners and properties may be flooded). However, BESL and English Nature believe that there could be wider benefits in the long term.

As a result of the public consultation and the fact that there is no mechanism at present (within the legislation) to buy land from landowners in order to flood it as the least cost option, BESL have embarked on maintaining the defences as a short term option.

In order to follow the proposed MCA based methodology for the River Chet case study (which constitutes the object of this report) it will be necessary to carry out an economic and/or quantitative valuation of the costs and benefits of different options. Besides the options considered by BESL, the appraisal of the case study will also consider a do-nothing option as it is indicated in Government guidance (MAFF, 1999) and maintain until the defences fail (year 9) followed by managed flooding to high ground.

In this context, the following five options were defined for the purpose of the assessment of this case study:

• ‘do-nothing’: where there is no investment in flood defence assets or activities; • maintain: maintenance of the existing flood defences at the current standard (assumed to be 1 in 5 return period), involving reactive repairs to the flood defences as necessary. This option would involve some strengthening of flood banks and setting back the soke dyke where necessary, including clearing the banks of excess vegetation and re- shaping the crest of the banks (equivalent to BESL’s do something option); • improve: the existing flood standards would be increased to 1 in 20 return period (the indicative standard of protection) through strengthening of the

Section 2: Definition of objectives and management options 7 flood banks, restoring them to their earlier levels where excessive settlement has occurred, accounting for sea level rise, and replacing or providing new erosion protection where the integrity of the floodbanks is threatened; • flooding to high ground: existing hard defences would be removed strategically, the bank in this area would be reprofiled and the river would be allowed to erode and accrete naturally until it met higher ground. However, flood defences would be provided to properties (in particular their gardens) to achieve a 1 in 20 standard; and • maintain then flood to high ground: a combination of the two options (set out above) but with a limited time for maintain due to the very poor ground conditions and deterioration of the peaty material that form the embankments. This also gives time for discussions with landowners and the Agency to find a way to flood to high ground as an option (in line with Defras guidance on exit strategies).

Table 2.1 presents a summary of the consequences that each of these options would have on the right hand River Chet.

Table 2.1: Summary of consequences of each management option on the River Chet Option Summary of consequences Do nothing The defences will continue to deteriorate resulting in progressive failure of the floodbanks and flooding of the land currently protected. Ultimately, all the land below mean high water level would become permanently inundated with salt water, resulting in loss of some property, the abandonment of agricultural land and impacts on the local infrastructure. In addition, this extensive and permanent flooding would replace large areas of high conservation value open grazing marsh with open water, although this may eventually develop saltmarsh and reed bed communities along the margins. The major changes to landscape and the loss of habitats of ecological interest would alter the character of the area and may have significant effect on its attraction to visitors and its use for recreation and amenity. This option would also have significant negative impacts on navigation, since the navigation channel would be obstructed by siltation. The loss of piling may reduce angling bank facilities. Maintain existing The existing embankments are widened to provide additional defences (1 in 5 return stability and then subsequently maintained. The period) consequences of this option are that the defences will continue to deteriorate as the embankments continue to settle and sea level rise increases. The strengthening will prevent failure of these defences but eventually they will have settled to the extent that they will be overtopped so frequently that they will have to be abandoned. Some temporary positive impacts on freshwater dykes are expected as well as potential improvement of these systems. The agricultural activities behind the defences would also be improved temporarily due to reduced flooding frequency. However, this option is not sustainable in the long term.

8 Section 2: Definition of objectives and management options Table 2.1: Summary of consequences of each management option on the River Chet Option Summary of consequences Improve (strengthening In addition to widening, the floodbanks will be raised by a and raising to account for certain amount (375mm in Strategy) to account for a sea level rise and settlement rate of 25mm/yr (occurring in the following 15 settlement – 1 in 20 return years). At the end of this period (and each subsequent 15 period) year period) the floodbanks will be raised again by the same amount. In the intervening years the banks will be maintained as normal. Although the flood regimes would not be significantly altered, raising the floodbanks would make the water levels rise in extreme events causing increased flooding in unprotected areas (not so much of a problem on the River Chet south bank). It will also have impacts on the landscape like obstructing the view. Other concerns include the volume of materials needed for the earthworks, integrated engineering and environmental opportunities. However, this option would also have positive impacts such the reduction of flooding to the protected areas, potential improvement of freshwater dykes, and improved agriculture due to less frequent flooding. Flooding to high ground A large-scale managed retreat would lead to water inundation of high quality freshwater grazing marsh and their associated wildlife. In addition, this option could result in major impacts on local infrastructure as described for the do-nothing option. Rond creation of this type could be viewed as a long-term alternative to the use of hard erosion protection measures such as pilling. The gardens of properties at risk from flooding would be protected for floods with 1 in 20 return period, so these properties would not be affected. This option will have the same effects as the do nothing option up to the new line of defence. Concerns include effects on the landscape, environmental change and opportunities and effects on agriculture. Positive impacts include increased in biodiversity due to new wetland habitat. This option would also have negative impacts on navigation due to siltation and increased velocities at the mouth of the river. The loss of piling may reduce angling bank facilities. Maintain followed by This option comprises maintain for years 0 to 9 followed by flooding to high ground flooding to high ground. The consequences will therefore be the same as those for maintain for years 0 to 9 and flood to high ground from year 10 onwards.

Section 2: Definition of objectives and management options 9 3. Structuring the problem

This section breaks down the problem into its component parts, identifying the set of impacts and associated criteria that will be used to make the decision. In other words it carries out a screening exercise for the Chet, south bank.

3.1 Summary of the screening exercise

This screening exercise is used to determine (i) which categories are relevant, (ii) which categories will be appraised by assigning monetary value to impacts and (iii) which will be appraised by assigning a score to the impacts. Relevant categories are those where there is a difference in the impacts of the options being appraised.

The screening and definition of potential impacts for the River Chet was based on the Local Impact Assessment for Compartment 22 (EA, 1996b), on the draft Environmental Statement for the flood alleviation improvements for AU 2 (Halcrow, 2003) and other sources of information such as conversations with local people and area maps etc. The Assessment Summary Table for High Level Screening (AST – S) is presented in Annex 1 of this report. Table 3.1 summarises the results of the screening exercise.

The high level screening exercise highlighted the fact that the vast majority of impacts of the options are related to environmental impacts, i.e. water quality, physical habitats and landscape and visual amenity, and, to a lesser extent, economic impacts, especially with regard to business development because of loss of boating activity.

The number of impact categories being assessed through monetary valuation is smaller than the number of impact categories being assessed through scoring. Moreover, when monetary valuation has been undertaken, such as for assets and land use, values have been found considerably low. In the former case, it is because only four gardens are expected to be affected while the main housing buildings are not expected to be affected from flooding, in the latter case, because valuation has been based on ESA payments.

10 Section 3: Structuring the problem Table 3.1: Table summarising the results in the screening exercise Project name River Chet flood defence scheme – AU2 Impact category Monetary valuation Score Economic impacts Assets 3 Land use 3 Transport Not relevant Not relevant Business development 3 Environmental impacts Physical habitats 3 Water quality 3 Water quantity Not relevant Not relevant Historical environment Not relevant Not relevant Natural processes Not relevant Not relevant Landscape and visual amenity 3 Social impacts Recreation 3 Health and safety Not relevant Not relevant Availability and Not relevant Not relevant accessibility of services Equity Not relevant Not relevant Sense of community 3 Cross-cutting impacts Policy integration 3

Section 3: Structuring the problem 11 4. Cost of options

The do-nothing option has zero (£0) costs. The costs of the other options were provided, by personal communication, by the consultants in charge of the project. The case study does not correspond exactly to the original project, as some additional options have been included in the MCA appraisal; hence the costs provided by the Consultants had to be adjusted to take into account the differences. The resulting costs for the options are presented in Table 4.1.

Table 4.1 Summary of costs of options used in the case study appraisal (£) Capital cost Maintenance Total PV cost Maintain 150,000 34,000 174,996 Sustain 2,700,000 194,000 1,887,787 Flood to High Ground 530,000 40,000 324,639 Maintain then Flood to High 630,000 56,000 389,157 Ground

12 Section 4: Cost of options 5. Assessment of impacts

5.1. Qualitative and quantitative assessment

The qualitative and quantitative assessment of the different options for each of the management units was carried out using the appraisal summary table for the main assessment (MA-AST) and it is presented in Appendix B4.2 to this Annex.

The assessment followed a stepped approach, starting with the qualitative assessment of all impact categories and moving to the quantitative assessment whenever information was available.

5.2 Monetary valuation of impacts

Benefits accruing from provision of defences (i.e. damages avoided) can be subdivided into 4 categories:

• write-off benefits;

• intermittent flooding after breach benefits;

• overtopping benefits; and

• erosion protection benefits.

In order to calculate the benefits the following probabilities of breach have been assumed under the different Options.

Table 5.1: Probability of breach under different options by year Do nothing Year 0 4 99 99 Probability of breach 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 Maintain existing defences Year 0 9 99 99 Probability of breach 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 Improve Year 0 10 99 99 Probability of breach 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 Flooding to high ground Year 0 10 99 99 Probability of breach 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.0 Maintain then flood to high ground Year 0 9 99 99 Probability of breach 0.2 1.0 1.0 1.0

Also, the following assumptions were made under each option:

• Do-nothing: No work is undertaken either as capital improvement or maintenance. The poor state of the existing defences mean that they will fail by year 4. The gardens of properties affected will be written off and the effects on navigation will lead to the closure of two boatyards. The

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 13 freshwater habitat will be lost but the new flooded area will be similar to Hardley Flood and therefore has the potential to develop greater conservation value equivalent to an SSSI. There will be a reduction in boating activity (assumed to be 50%) due to siltation and navigation being more difficult for larger boats;

• Maintain: Under maintain, work is undertaken to strengthen and repair the defences until this becomes impossible in year 9. After year 9, therefore, the option reverts to do-nothing. This means that the gardens and agricultural land are written-off and that recreational trips are also lost. The write-off costs are the same as for do-nothing, but occur further into the future such that the Present Value damages are reduced;

• Sustain: Under sustain, there would be negligible damages to gardens, while the agricultural land and recreational use of the area would be protected to a 1 in 20 year standard;

• Flood to High Ground: Under the flood to high ground option, there would be negligible impacts on gardens as defences would be provided to properties. Recreation would be affected to a degree but some dredging would be undertaken to maintain navigation channels but not to the same depth as at present. Agricultural land would be written-off following breaching of the defences in year 4;

• Maintain then Flood to High Ground: This option would involve maintaining the defences until they can no longer be maintained and then reverting to the flood to high ground option such that further breaching of the defences is managed. This would result in negligible damages to properties, as these would again be protected by the construction of defences. Recreation would be protected by the dredging of navigation channels. Agricultural land would be written-off, but over a longer time period, with breaching not expected to occur until year 9.

5.2.1 Write-off benefits

Assets

On the River Chet there are approximately five residential complexes along the road between Heckingham and Loddon, with additional properties at Nogdam End. Of these, 4 properties (in particular their gardens) are at risk from flooding under the do nothing option, thus, they will be written-off. The Multi-Coloured Manual (Penning-Rowsell et al., 2003) notes that gardens make up for 2.3% of the total value of properties. The Property Register for Loddon shows an average value per property of £168,399. Thus, the value to be written-off is around £15,500.

Land use

Almost all of the adjacent land to the River Chet south bank is under the Environmental Sensitive Area Scheme. Table 4.2 shows the areas of agricultural land flooded for each ESA Tier.

14 Section 5: Assessment of impacts Table 5.2: ESA area flooded in the right bank of the River Chet ESA tiers Agricultural land type Area flooded (ha)

Tier 1 Permanent grassland 14.732 Tier 2 Extensive grassland 49.7986 Tier 3 Wet grassland 15.5034 Tier 4 Arable reversion to permanent 0 grassland Non ESA land 1.9113

Under the do-nothing option it is assumed that the agricultural land will be flooded very frequently and therefore the benefits accrue from its maintenance will be totally lost (or written off). Values for agricultural land have been used from Nix (1998). The write-off value assigned corresponds to the market value of the land (Nix (1998) average value of £7,075/ha), factored by 0.45 to account for subsidies of agricultural land. Over the 82 ha affected, this is equivalent to around £260,000.

5.2.2 Intermittent flooding after breach benefits

Assets

Infrequent flooding can occur around the edge of a written-off zone, where properties are flooded on some events but not frequently enough to be written off. For the study area, however, it was concluded that damages to assets from infrequent flooding would not be significant and have not been monetised.

Land use

For option 2, the standard of protection would initially be 1 in 5, which means that the agricultural land will be producing the same as it is today, therefore no significant benefits would be gained from protection. For the improve option, where the standard of protection would be increased to 1 in 20, the agricultural land under the ESA scheme would be less frequently flooded than today. ESA agricultural land has to guarantee a certain amount of flooding to maintain the characteristics for which it was designated. The 1 in 20 standard might prevent this flooding from occurring; therefore, in order for the benefits not to be lost some arrangements would have to be made so that the area is flooded at the appropriate frequency. This may represent a small additional cost.

Transport

The only important road in the study area is the B1140 that runs alongside the Chet close to Nogdam End, but is outside the study area. There are also alternative routes for any of the minor roads that may be impassable for a short time and hence the impacts are considered not to be significant.

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 15 Business development

Tourism linked with navigation is an important industry in Loddon. If the area floods after a breach, recreational activities could potentially be lost, and this will have an impact on the economic development of the village, with potential loss of commerce and, consequently, jobs. However, the Red Manual notes that flooding of retail, distribution, office and leisure services are unlikely to generate significant indirect loss to the nation. Therefore this has not been assessed in monetary terms. They will, however, be considered in qualitative terms.

Historic environment

There are no Schedule Ancient Monuments in the study area and there are no archaeological sites of interest. Impacts for this category are therefore not considered.

5.2.3 Erosion protection benefits

The erosion protection benefits accruing from carrying out protection works are derived from an assessment of the economic value of extension to the life of, or delay in, loss of the erosion-prone properties for a period of time equal to the life of the works (Penning-Rowsell et al., 1992).

The water quality of the River Chet might be affected under the do nothing option. This is because more erosion will give rise to increasing the sediment load of the river water. Also, if flooding is more frequent, then agricultural land will be drained more often into the river, which in turn can increase the concentration of pesticides for example. It is worth to note that most agricultural land in the Chet margins is under the ESA scheme, which means that more environmentally friendly agricultural practices are undertaken which in turn means that the impact of agricultural land drainage is not so acute and can even be insignificant.

It is difficult to put a value on water quality changes due to erosion. Therefore, benefits have been assessed qualitatively and scores given.

5.2.4 Overtopping damages

Overtopping damages, without breach, are expected to be negligible. Therefore, no valuation has been undertaken.

16 Section 5: Assessment of impacts 5.2.5 Monetary valuation of intangible benefits

Recreation

The River Chet’s main recreational activity is linked to leisure navigation. There are two mooring sites on the south bank of the Chet; one in Loddon Staithe (with moorings for a number of boats of all sizes) and another at Pyes Mill, where there is also a public picnic site. The August 1994 boat census undertaken by the BA recorded approximately 150-200 boat movements (upstream and downstream) per day on the River Chet at Chet Mouth.

Using the data above (150 to 200 boat movements upstream and downstream per day (Posford Duvivier, 1996)), the number of boats is estimated at 75 to 100 boats on a single day, or 2,300 to 3,100 for the month of August. The Benefits Assessment Guidance notes that boating in the summer can be up to 40% of annual totals; thus the number of boats can be estimated at 6,000 to 8,000. Regarding the value of recreational boating, Willis and Garrod (1991) estimate this at £0.47 to £1.17 per boating visit (2003 values). Therefore, and assuming 3 people per boat, the value of boating activities can be estimated at £8,000 to £28,000 annually.

Angling is permitted between Loddon and Hardley Cross, with bream and roach being a common catch (Waterscape, 2004). The season for coarse fishing runs from 16th June, 2003 to 14th March, 2004. However, anglers do not have access to the south bank of the river, except at Loddon Staithe, which is not part of the study area.

Other recreational activities known, to be undertaken in the river include: wildfowling, walking, cycling and birdwatching. Access to the south bank of the Chet is very restricted, which makes these activities almost impossible. However, the potential decrease in water quality under the do-nothing option due to increased siltation and sediment transport may have impacts on the informal recreation that occurs in the left bank of the river. The number of visits per year to picnic site in East Anglia (based on BAG) can be estimated at 1,000 visits. Coker (1990) value per visit is of £1.41 per adult/visit (£2003). Thus, the value of informal recreation is estimated at £1,500 per year. We have assumed that not all recreational value will be lost and only 50% will be lost under the do- nothing option. The loss of recreational value, or benefits from protection, is thus estimated at between £4,750 and £14,750 per year.

The breach in the do-nothing option is assumed to have taken place by year 4 (probability in year 4 = 1.0). After this, the breach is not repaired so gardens of properties and agricultural land are written off. The value of recreational trips continues to be lost annually as recreation cannot occur again in the area.

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 17 Physical habitats

According to consultation responses to the Environmental Impact Assessment (Halcrow, 2003), the Norfolk Wildlife Trust survey in 2002 recorded breeding redshank (poss 2 pairs), oystercatcher (poss 1 – 2 pairs) and lapwing (poss 10 pairs) in a limited area at Nogdam End.

The loss or substitution of this biodiversity does not represent a significant loss in general when considered in the context of the whole of the Broads. However, it is important to point out that reedbeds and floodplain grazing marshes constitute a habitat for which a habitat action plan exists.

In the do nothing option, these habitats and species will suffer the impacts of river water inundation or more frequent flooding, and in this way may be altered. The River Chet has no particularly important environmental features, therefore the impacts on the environment will not be significant as these habitats and species exist in other rivers of the Broads. Thus, monetary valuation is not considered necessary.

Moreover, if the right bank of the river is permanently flooded, an area of washland similar to that in Hardley flood could be created. With time this area has the potential to become a site for nature conservation, and even be designated as an SSSI and/or SPA.

5.3 Scoring of impacts

When impacts have not been valued, scores have been assigned instead. Overall, scores have been given based on the extent of the site’s properties affected, to the extent possible. There are, however, difficulties when trying to score impacts when quantitative units affected are more difficult to account for and/or are not available, such as water quality and sense of community.

The following Table summarises the monetary valuation and impact scores and gives justification for the latter.

18 Section 5: Assessment of impacts Table B5.1 Table summarising scores and monetary estimates Project River Chet Flood Management Options Name Figures have been rounded to two significant figures

Category Justification ground Improve Maintain Do Nothing to high ground Flooding to high Maintain then flood Economic impacts Gardens will be protected under flooding to high ground to a 1 in 20 return period; so costs under Assets flooding to high ground are equal to the option of £15,000 £14,000 Negligible Negligible

Negligible improve (1 in 20).

Flooding to high ground will have the same effects as Land use the do nothing option, as agricultural land will be lost. £6,000 £220,000 £201,000 £220,000 £200,000

Transport - - - - - Not relevant

Business developed from navigation is noted to be as a contributor to the local economy. Considering that the quality status of the river, in particular the navigation channels, influences significantly tourism, it is assumed that any change (positive or negative) to the navigation channels will have a significant impact on business development. In this context, the option that will score the highest (100) is the one that will have the most positive influence on the local area (Option 3, i.e. improve). Option 4 (Flooding to high ground) will have less of a positive impact. There are Business three boatyards in the area. We have assumed that 1 0 10 100 50 60 development will close and the others will remain as a result of dredging and channel maintenance (score of 50). Against this, two boatyards will close under the Do- Nothing Option. An issue for business development is how to score the closure of 2 boatyards in year 10 from Option 2. If information was available to boatyards about the impacts, it seems likely that business development would be affected from year 10. Thus a score of 10 has been given. Maintain then flood to high ground scores allows ten years for businesses to adapt to future flooding and, therefore, scores 60. Environmental impacts Floodwaters under the do-nothing will have a significant impact on soke dykes, through increased Physical water content and salinity. The species present within 100 90 0 100 90 habitats the soke dyke habitat will be lost. The wet woodland habitat will also be partially damaged by more frequent or permanent flooding. The species that relate to this

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 19 Table B5.1 Table summarising scores and monetary estimates Project River Chet Flood Management Options Name Figures have been rounded to two significant figures

Category Justification ground Improve Maintain Do Nothing to high ground Flooding to high Maintain then flood habitat might be partially lost but it is likely that the majority of mobile species will tend to move towards the non-flooded area of the wood. In the medium to long term a wash land habitat will be created potentially similar to that on Hardley flood (designated SSSI and Ramsar site) on the left bank of the Chet. Under the other Options, impacts will be minimised, with improve having a less of a negative impact that maintain. Impacts from flooding to high ground will be similar to do nothing. It is considered that the potential development of an SSSI would result in greater conservation value than the protection of the soke dykes. Do-nothing, maintain, flood to high ground and maintain then flood to high ground will all result in development of an SSSI. Do- nothing and flood to high ground would result in the SSSI developing over the next 5 years, with maintain and maintain then flood to high ground resulting in the SSSI developing over the next 10-15 years. Therefore, do-nothing and flood to high ground score 100. Maintain and maintain then flood to high ground score 90. Sustain would nor result in the development of an SSSI and sea level rise is likely to result in increased salinity of the soke dykes over time in any case, therefore, this is the worst option and scores 0. There is no quantitative indication of the impact on water quality of the different options being assessed, (which makes the scoring exercise difficult). The ‘do- nothing’ and flooding to high ground will have a negative impact on water quality; under the former, this is for two reasons, first the impact of increased suspended sediments and, second, the increased run- Water 0 10 100 0 10 off from agricultural land due to increased flooding. quality Under flooding to high ground, water will become brackish due to increased water exchange in the washland. Under the improve option the level of sediments will be reduced, thus, the Option scores 100. Maintain will delay impacts to year 10. Maintain then flood to high ground is assigned a score of 10 as it would result in the same impacts as maintain. Water - - - - Not relevant quantity Natural - - - - Not relevant processes Historical - - - - Not relevant environment

20 Section 5: Assessment of impacts Table B5.1 Table summarising scores and monetary estimates Project River Chet Flood Management Options Name Figures have been rounded to two significant figures

Category Justification ground Improve Maintain Do Nothing to high ground Flooding to high Maintain then flood The best available option between those considered for the Chet is when landscape changes from grazing marsh to washland, under the ‘do-nothing’ option and flooding to high ground. Thus, these options score Landscape 100. The landscape will become more natural in year and visual 100 90 0 100 90 10, under the maintain option. Improve will have the amenity worst impact to the landscape, in comparison with rest of the options, thus it scores 0. Maintain then flood to high ground is assigned a score of 90, as it would have the same impacts as maintain. Social impacts Flooding to high ground will have greater impacts on recreation than the improve option; as part of the informal recreational activity will be lost together with boating activities. The option with the least impacts on Recreation recreation will be ‘sustain’; thus the costs expected are less than for the remaining options. Values are however presented in ranges to reflect uncertainty

£7,100-£22,000 (note that the lower bound for the ‘do nothing’ and £120,000-380,000 £130,000-£390,000 £130,000-£380,000 £130,000 - £410,000 ‘maintain’ option is the same due to rounding). Health and - - - - - Not relevant safety Availability - - and - - - Not relevant accessibility of services Equity - - - - - Not relevant Sense of community is mostly affected by loss of property, jobs and business development. Scoring this category on the basis of loss of jobs and business development could incur in double counting with equity. Loss of property (the physical loss rather then the monetary loss) would then be the most relevant factor in scoring this category. Since loss of property would occur in the do nothing option, it could be said Sense of 0 10 100 50 60 that this option would score 0, whereas improve will community score 100. Gardens will be protected under flooding to high ground; however agricultural land will be lost which could affect the sense of community. This Option scores 50. Maintain will only delay flooding but same effects as for the do-nothing could be expected. Thus, it scores 10. Maintain then flood to high ground scores allows ten years for businesses to adapt to future flooding and, therefore, scores 60. Cross-cutting impacts

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 21 Table B5.1 Table summarising scores and monetary estimates Project River Chet Flood Management Options Name Figures have been rounded to two significant figures

Category Justification ground Improve Maintain Do Nothing to high ground Flooding to high Maintain then flood The scoring of Policy Integration has been based on the elements in common with the Strategy covering the Chet and other relevant stakeholders’ viewpoints on conservation, i.e. EN and the Broads Authority. The worst expected impacts on policy integration relate to the integrated management of the River Chet as a whole, since different margins are part of different compartments and therefore are being treated separately. These are expected under the ‘do-nothing’ Policy option and the ‘maintain’ option, thus, they score 0. On 0 0 100 66 75 integration the other hand, it is difficult to establish which is the best option of the two remaining, since one only agrees partly with the Strategy whereas the other does not agree with the Strategy but is more in line with EN expectations and, likely, the Broads authority. Therefore, a score of 100 has been assigned to option 3 and 66 to option 4. ‘Maintain’ then flood to high ground in allowing ten years for adaptation is more in line with Defra’s exit strategy than flood to high ground and is assigned a score of 75.

22 Section 5: Assessment of impacts 6. Weighting

6.1 Weighting methods and analysis used

Weight elicitation for the Chet case study was carried out by means of a paper based questionnaire. The starting point for the approach was a condensed version of the (more theoretically correct) full pair wise comparison method requiring comparison of all categories of impact with all others. A condensed approach was used because the number of comparisons required using the full approach would have been too time consuming and inconsistent with obtaining a sufficient number of responses.

Table 6.1 provides an example diagram for a simple five-category analysis using the full approach. As can be seen from the figure, ten sets of pair wise comparisons would be required to complete the response.

Table 6.1 Full weight elicitation for impact categories A-E A B C D E A = Elicit Elicit Elicit Elicit B = Elicit Elicit Elicit C = Elicit Elicit D = Elicit E =

The condensed approach seeks to reduce the number of comparisons that have to be made, and thus speed up the process for the respondent. The approach requires respondents to first rank categories of impact and then to indicate the importance of one factor relative to another down the rank order. Thus, for five categories, four comparisons are required initially, the weights between the remaining categories being inferred mathematically, see for example Table 6.2.

Table 6.2 Condensed weight elicitation for impact categories A-E A B C D E A = Elicit Infer Infer Infer B = Elicit Infer Infer C = Elicit Infer D = Elicit E =

However, both full and condensed approaches may provide inconsistent results, but for different reasons. In the full approach, inconsistencies may arise because the weight apportioned between some comparisons may be inconsistent with the weights implied by other comparisons. Thus, if the respondent has indicated that Category A is twice as important as Category B and Category B is as important as Category C, an entirely consistent set of data would also record that Category A is twice as important as Category C. Such an entirely consistent result is rarely delivered from the full approach, requiring consideration as to how one deals with the inconsistent responses.

Section 6: Weighting 23 The condensed version does not suffer from this particular type of inconsistency because entirely consistent results are inferred mathematically from the subset of comparisons. However, the risk with such an approach is that the respondent is not aware of the effect of his/her initial choices on the derivation of the inferred preferences. In previous attempts, using this approach, we have noticed a tendency for some respondents to place a disproportionate amount of weight to the higher order categories to the detriment of the lower order ones. To prevent this tendency but maintain a less time consuming approach, in the Chet Case Study respondents were also asked to compare their top ranked impact category with the middle ranked category; and their middle ranked category with the bottom ranked category. In effect, the idea was to complete some of the data points that would otherwise have been inferred alone. This is illustrated in Table 6.3, which shows which sets of comparisons are elicited and inferred using this approach.

Table 6.3 Calibrated condensed weight elicitation for impact categories A-E A B C D E A = Elicit Infer and Infer Infer Elicit B = Elicit Infer Infer C = Elicit Infer and Elicit D = Elicit E =

The approach provides two sets of weights per respondent. The first is the initial set that denotes the relative distance between the importance of the different categories, and the second set, which provides verification of the relative distance between the top, middle and bottom ranked categories. Ideally, the gradient of weight down the categories should be the same or similar. Where they are not, this suggests that the respondent has allotted weight disproportionately; however, the second data set (which provides for the overall gradient) can be used to calibrate the first.

Figures 6.1 and 6.2 provide the results of two responses drawn from the case study. Figure 1.4 shows a response where the respondent initial full response disagrees with the second, partial response. The data can be combined to provide a corrected response lying between the two. This is achieved simply by reducing the gradient of the initial response so that it lies mid-way between the initial full response and the second (partial) response. As can be seen by examination of the corrected response, the data points are both tilted and squeezed closer together to achieve this. However, the proportionality of weights allotted to neighbouring ranks is the same in the corrected response as in the initial response.

24 Section 6: Weighting Figure 6.1 Correction of disproportionate response

0.45

0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25 Initial Full Partial (3/7) 0.2 Corrected Weight 0.15

0.1

0.05

0 012345678 Rank

Figure 6.2 provides an example response where the respondents’ initial and second responses are very similar. The application of the same calibration approach to provide corrected results thus has little effect on the resulting weights.

`Figure 6.2 Minor Correction of Response

0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25 Initial Full ght 0.2 Partial (3/7) Corrected Wei 0.15

0.1

0.05

0 012345678 Rank

Section 6: Weighting 25 6.2 Results of the weight elicitation

One of the potential advantages of using individual questionnaire responses rather than focus groups is that a consensus on, for example, rank order, does not have to be forced. Each (informed) individual may record their own preferences without reference to a group and the restrictions that may be placed on them by the rest of a group.

However, one of the potential disadvantages can be that, because different people have different priorities, their rank orders are different. A lack of consensus between respondents will be apparent where there is little consistency between responses concerning the position or weight that is applied to the categories.

An obvious solution to the approach would be to take the average weight for each category across all responses, alongside the standard deviation to give a range of possible values for sensitivity analysis. However, this makes the resulting weights highly sensitive to the sample population and the proportion of different people with different views and agendas.

However, the focus of the whole analysis is not on what the weighted score of each of the options is but rather, which has the highest total weighted score and hence performs best. In other words, it is the outcome that is important. Therefore, an alternative approach is to combine all weight responses with the scores for the different options to generate the total weighted score for each respondent. Thus, even where there is considerable disagreement on the relative importance of different categories of impact in the MCA, there may be little disagreement concerning which option performs best in the end.

For the Chet case study, there was very little consensus in the rank order of categories and associated weights between the responses. However, an analysis of the outcomes from the application of each of the responses (using both uncorrected and corrected responses) provides the results in Table 6.4.

As can be seen from the table, on the basis of the intangible weighted scores only (i.e. before the monetary costs and benefits are taken into account) 83% of responses result in the Improve option being the highest scoring option and 17% being either of the Flood to High Ground options. As such, whilst there is little consensus between respondents in terms of weights, a consensus is apparent once these weights are applied to the scores.

Table 6.4 Outcomes of individual Chet responses Option Uncorrected initial full Corrected response Do nothing 0% 0% Maintain 0% 0% Improve 83% 83% Flood to high ground 17% 0% Maintain then flood to high ground 0% 17%

26 Section 6: Weighting 7. Comparison of options

7.1 Selecting the preferred option

The total intangible weighted score only makes up a part of the overall decision- making process concerning the preferred option. The next stage is to consider the total weighted scores for the options alongside the monetary costs and benefits of the options.

The overall benefit cost ratio of an option is given by (B/C)+(I£/C), where B denotes the monetary benefits, C the monetary costs, and I£ the monetary value of the intangible benefits. As described elsewhere, I£ for an option is given by the product of the total weighted score (I) and the multiplication factor (k), expresses as pounds per point on the 100 point intangible score. Because the value of k is not known, the analysis uses a range of possible values for k from k minimum (k min - which as a default is defined as 0.1% of the ‘Do Nothing damage’ costs1) to k maximum (k max – which as an absolute maximum default is taken as 10% of the ‘Do Nothing damage’ costs2).

The result of such an analysis across the range of k was calculated for all respondents. The results fell into a majority (66%) and a minority (33%) response, with responses within these groups having more or less identical outcomes at the various levels of k. Typical examples of minority and majority response results are provided in Figures 7.1 and 7.2 overleaf. The average response result is provided in Figure 7.3.

1 i.e. at k min the Total Economic value (TEV) of the intangible assets at stake is 10% of the ‘Do nothing’ damage costs. 2 i.e. at k max the TEV of the intangible assets at stake is 10 times the ‘Do nothing’ damage costs.

Section 7: Comparison of options 27 Figure 7.1 Typical individual minority response

Typical Individual Minority Response (33%)

6.00

Maintain 5.00 Flood to High Ground Maintain and Flood 4.00 to High Ground C Ratio 3.00

Overall B: Overall Do Nothing 2.00

1.00 Sustain

- £395 £5,395 £10,395 £15,395 £20,395 £25,395 Value of k (£)

Figure 7.2 Typical individual majority response

Typical Individual Majority Response (66%)

5.00

Flood to High 4.50 Ground Maintain and Flood to 4.00 High Ground

Maintain 3.50

3.00 C Ratio 2.50

2.00 Overall B: Overall

1.50

1.00 Sustain

0.50 Do Nothing

- £395 £5,395 £10,395 £15,395 £20,395 £25,395 Value of k (£)

28 Section 7: Comparison of options Figure 7.3 Average response

Average Response

5.00 Flood to High Ground 4.50 Maintain and Flood to High Ground 4.00 Maintain 3.50

3.00 C Ratio 2.50

2.00 Overall B: Overall

1.50 Do Nothing

1.00 Sustain

0.50

- £395 £5,395 £10,395 £15,395 £20,395 £25,395 Value of k (£)

7.2 Drawing conclusions on the preferred option

As can be seen from all figures, for all responses there are two to three competing options: ‘maintain’; ‘flood to high ground’; and ‘maintain and flood to high ground’.

In the majority and average response, whatever the value of k, ‘flood to high ground’ is always the preferred option, closely followed by ‘maintain and flood to high ground’ and, in turn, the ‘maintain’ option. All of the minority responses show the same outcome until k reaches a value of £5,900, whereupon the ‘maintain’ option becomes the preferred option.

From these data, there is complete consensus that ‘flood to high ground’ is the preferred option from an economic perspective, until k reaches a value of around £5,900. Above this, there is a 33% response, which indicates that ‘maintain’ would be the preferred option. Thus, the first step in making a final decision on the preferred option for the River Chet requires consideration of the likelihood that k is greater or less than £5,900.

A k value of £5,900 for the Chet implies that the Total Economic Value (TEV) of the intangible assets at stake is £590,000. This is a figure equivalent to 1.5 times the ‘no-nothing’ damage costs of £395,000. As this is a value at least bordering on the unreasonably high it might be concluded that the ‘flood to high ground’ option should be the preferred option.

Section 7: Comparison of options 29 8. References

BESL (2003): Presentation of the stakeholder meeting

BESL (2002): Broadland Flood Alleviation Project: Rivers Chet, Yare and Waveney – Consultation Document, Broadland Environmental Services Limited and Environment Agency, 2002.

Environment Agency (1996a): Broadland Flood Alleviation Strategy Study – Bank Strengthening and Erosion Protection Compartment 22 (Burgh Norton): Detailed Appraisal, Report prepared by Posford Duvivier for the Environment Agency (Anglian Region), September 1996.

Environment Agency (1996b): Broadland Compartment 22 Local Environmental Assessment – Final Report, Report prepared by Posford Duvivier for the Environment Agency (Anglian Region), September 1996.

Posford Duvivier 1996. Broadland Flood Alleviation Strategy Study – Bank Strengthening and Erosion Protection Compartment 22 (Burgh Norton) Detailed Appraisal. Prepared for the Environment Agency

Waterscape (2004): Waterways Guide – River Chet, information available in the Internet (http://www.waterscape.com/waterwausguide/waterways/River_Chet/River_Chet. html)

Willis K and Garrod G 1991. Valuing open access recreation on inland waterways: on-site recreation surveys and selection effects, Countryside Change Working Paper 14, University of Newcastle. Regional Studies Vol 25 (6) pp 511- 524

30 Section 7: References Appendix B4.1

Appraisal summary table for high level screening – S-AST for the River Chet flood alleviation scheme

Appendix B4.1 31 Table B4.1.1: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – high level screening Project name River Chet flood defence scheme – AU2 Assumptions: The high level screening will correspond to the do nothing option. Qualitative Impact or Monetary Impact category likely? Impact details quantitative valuation (Y/N) assessment Economic impacts potential impact to residential Assets Y • properties 3 • potential impact to tier 1 agricultural land under ESA scheme; Land use Y 3 • potential impact to small areas of tier 2 and 3 agricultural land under the ESA scheme. Transport N -

• potential impact to the economic development of the Business local community (Loddon and Y development Chedgrave) due to decrease in 3 recreational interest of the river, in particular navigation.

Environmental impacts • potential impact to designated Environmental Sensitive Area (low lying river valley grassland – considered under land use Physical habitats Y impact category); 3 • potential impacts to soke dyke habitat and species; • potential impact to wet woodland; • potential impact on suspended sediment in the water due to increased erosion; Water quality Y 3 • potential impact to water quality due to more frequent flooding of adjacent agriculture land. Water quantity N -

Historical - N environment • potential impact to nationally important open valley landscape – Area of Landscape and Y Outstanding Natural Beauty; visual amenity 3 • potential impact to reed Ronds, which are a distinctive feature of the River Chet.

32 Appendix B4.1 Table B4.1.1: Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – high level screening Project name River Chet flood defence scheme – AU2 Assumptions: The high level screening will correspond to the do nothing option. Qualitative Impact or Monetary Impact category likely? Impact details quantitative valuation (Y/N) assessment Social impacts • potential impact to navigation Recreation Y for recreation (passenger 3 vessels and light sport vessels); Health and safety N -

Availability and - accessibility of N services

Equity N -

• potential impacts on the relationship between Loddon (south bank) and Chedgrave Sense of community Y (north bank) communities due 3 to different treatment of needs of both communities.

Cross-cutting impacts

• potential impact on integrated management of the River Chet as a whole, since different Policy Integration Y margins are part of different 3 compartments and therefore are being treated separately.

Appendix B4.1 33 Appendix B4.2:

Appraisal summary table for main assessment – MA-AST for the River Chet flood alleviation scheme

34 Appendix B4.2 Table B4.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name River Chet flood protection scheme Description of Do nothing option option Description of area The area being assessed comprises of the south (right) bank of the River affected by option Chet, running from Pyes Mill, near Loddon, to Nogdam End.

Quantitative assessment Impact Qualitative description of of impacts category impacts value Score

Impact (no. units/monetary) Monetary likely? (Y/N)

Economic impacts Flooding will have an impact on 4 residential properties, in The gardens for 4 particular their gardens. The Assets Y residential properties will £15,000 impact on the buildings be flooded (written-off) themselves can be considered insignificant. Flooding of ESA tier 1, 2 and 3 agricultural land plus arable 71.9 ha of ESA land not under ESA scheme. Land use Y agricultural land to be £220,000 There will be no change in written-off. value of non-ESA land as this will go to wetland. Transport N - - Impact to the economic development of the local Of 3 boatyards, 2 will Business community (Loddon and Y close under the ‘Do 0 development Chedgrave) due to decrease in Nothing’ Option recreational interest of the river, in particular navigation.

Environmental impacts Floodwaters will have a significant impact on soke dykes, through increased water content and salinity. The species present within the soke Physical Difficult to estimate the Y dyke habitat will be lost. The 100 habitats number of units affected. wet woodland habitat will also be partially damaged by more frequent or permanent flooding. The species that relate to this habitat might be partially lost. Impact on quantity of suspended sediment in the water due to increased erosion. Number of units not Water quality Y 0 Impact to water quality due to quantifiable. more frequent flooding of adjacent agriculture land. Water - N - quantity Historical - N - environment

Appendix B4.2 35 Table B4.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name River Chet flood protection scheme Description of Do nothing option option Description of area The area being assessed comprises of the south (right) bank of the River affected by option Chet, running from Pyes Mill, near Loddon, to Nogdam End.

Quantitative assessment Impact Qualitative description of of impacts category impacts value Score

Impact (no. units/monetary) Monetary likely? (Y/N) Landscape More value because of site and visual Y more natural, but no n/a 100 amenity quantitative units known.

Social impacts Impact to navigation for 150-200 boat movements recreation (including rowing, (upstream and canoeing, sailing, cruisers, day downstream) per day launches (private and hire), were recorded in August passenger vessels and light 1994 (Posford Duvivier, sport vessels); 1996) – 75 to 100 boats = 2,300 to 3,100 per month. Flooding of public picnic site in Assumes this is 40% of Loddon Staithe, as well as annual visits, thus annual small walking path in the same number of boats = 6,000 area. In addition, anglers using to 8,000. the Staithe can also be affected £0.47-£1.17 per boating by more frequent flooding. visit (Willis and Garrod, 1991, 2003). Value of boating £130,000- Recreation Y activities (3 people/boat) £410,000 = £8,000 - £28,000 (2003) Number of visits per year to picnic site in East Anglia (based on BAG) is 1,000. Value of today’s visit: £1.41 per adult/visit (Coker, 1990, £2003). Value of informal recreation = £1,500 (2003) Not all will be lost: 50% lost. Total value £4,750- £14,750 (annual) Health and - N safety

Availability and N - - accessibility of services

(Included under sense of Equity N community)

36 Appendix B4.2 Table B4.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name River Chet flood protection scheme Description of Do nothing option option Description of area The area being assessed comprises of the south (right) bank of the River affected by option Chet, running from Pyes Mill, near Loddon, to Nogdam End.

Quantitative assessment Impact Qualitative description of of impacts category impacts value Score

Impact (no. units/monetary) Monetary likely? (Y/N)

Impacts on the relationship between Loddon (south bank) Sense of and Chedgrave (north bank) Y 0 community communities due to different treatment of needs of both communities.

Cross-cutting impacts

Impact on integrated management of the River Chet Policy as a whole, since different Y n/a 0 integration margins are part of different compartments and therefore are being treated separately.

Appendix B4.2 37 Table B4.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name River Chet flood protection scheme Description of option Maintain existing defences (1 in 5 return period) Description of area The area being assessed comprises of the south (right) bank of the affected by option River Chet, running from Pyes Mill, near Loddon, to Nogdam End. Quantitative Impact Qualitative description assessment of Impact category likely? of impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary Economic impacts Flooding will have an impact on 4 residential properties, in particular The gardens for 4 their gardens from a 1 in residential properties Assets Y 5 year or larger event. £14,000 will be flooded by year The impact on the 10. building themselves can be considered insignificant. Almost all of the adjacent land to River Chet south bank is under the Environmental Sensitive Area Scheme. The agricultural activities behind the defences 71.0ha flooded in year Land use Y £201,000 would also be improved 10 temporarily due to reduced flooding frequency (ESA tier 1, 2 and 3 agricultural land plus arable land not used under ESA scheme).

Transport N - -

Impact to the economic development of the local community (Loddon and Decreased economic Business Chedgrave) due to activity linked to Y 10 development decrease in recreational recreation. 2 boatyards interest of the river in the close in year 10. long term, (year 10+) in particular navigation.

38 Appendix B4.2 Table B4.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name River Chet flood protection scheme Description of option Maintain existing defences (1 in 5 return period) Description of area The area being assessed comprises of the south (right) bank of the affected by option River Chet, running from Pyes Mill, near Loddon, to Nogdam End. Quantitative Impact Qualitative description assessment of Impact category likely? of impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary

Environmental impacts

Some temporary positive impacts on freshwater dykes but in the long- term flood waters will have an impact on the soke dykes (increased water content and Difficult to estimate Physical habitats Y 90 salinity). Thus habitat units. present will be lost. However, a wetland habitat will be created on the right bank that will more than compensate for lost habitats. Long-term impact on quantity of suspended Water quality Y - 10 sediment in the water due to increased erosion. Water quantity N - - Natural N - - processes Historical N - - environment Long-term impact to nationally important open valley landscape – Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty. Impact to reed Ronds, which are distinctive feature of the River Chet. Positive impacts on landscape from year 10 Landscape and Although this could be Y (going to more natural). 90 visual amenity considered to be an insignificant impact in the Number of units landscape, since it can unknown. be found somewhere else in the Broads, reed ronds are locally important as they give variation on the riverbanks (the left bank is piled and featurless).

Appendix B4.2 39 Table B4.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name River Chet flood protection scheme Description of option Maintain existing defences (1 in 5 return period) Description of area The area being assessed comprises of the south (right) bank of the affected by option River Chet, running from Pyes Mill, near Loddon, to Nogdam End. Quantitative Impact Qualitative description assessment of Impact category likely? of impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary

Social impacts

150-200 boat movements (upstream and downstream) per day were recorded in August 1994 (Posford Duvivier, 1996) – 75 to 100 boats = 2,300 to 3,100 per month. Assumes this is 40% of annual visits, thus annual number of boats Long-term impact to = 6,000 to 8,000. navigation for recreation £0.47-£1.17 per (including rowing, boating visit (Willis and canoeing, sailing, Garrod, 1991, 2003). cruisers, day launches (private and hire), Value of boating passenger vessels and activities (3 light sport vessels) after people/boat) = £8,000 £130,000- Recreation Y year 10 as channel - £28,000 (2003) £390,000 changes due to piling Number of visits per and embankment failure; year to picnic site in Flooding of public picnic East Anglia (based on site in Loddon Staithe, as BAG) is 1,000. Value well as small walking of today’s visit: £1.41 path in the same area in per adult/visit (Coker, the long-term. 1990, £2003). Value of informal recreation = £1,500 (2003)

No will not all be lost 50% lost

Total value £4,750- £14,750 (annual) Health and N - - safety Availability and accessibility of N - - services

40 Appendix B4.2 Table B4.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name River Chet flood protection scheme Description of option Maintain existing defences (1 in 5 return period) Description of area The area being assessed comprises of the south (right) bank of the affected by option River Chet, running from Pyes Mill, near Loddon, to Nogdam End. Quantitative Impact Qualitative description assessment of Impact category likely? of impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary Equity N - - Impacts on the relationship between Loddon (south bank) and Sense of Chedgrave (north bank) Y 10 community communities due to different treatment of needs of both communities. Cross-cutting impacts Impact on integrated management of the River Chet as a whole, since Policy integration Y different margins are part n/a 0 of different compartments and therefore are being treated separately.

Appendix B4.2 41 Table B4.2.3 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name River Chet flood protection scheme Improve (strengthening and raising to account for sea level rise and Description of option settlement – 1 in 20 years return period) The area being assessed comprises of the south (right) bank of the Description of area River Chet, running from Pyes Mill, near Loddon, to Nogdam End. affected by option

Impact Quantitative Qualitative description of Impact category likely? assessment of impacts impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Economic impacts

Properties protected to 1 in 20 year standard. (Increased flooding in Assets Y unprotected areas but this 4 gardens affected. £400 is not much of a problem in the River Chet south bank. This will be minor).

Improved agriculture due to Land use Y 71.9ha affected £6,000 less frequent flooding.

Transport N - -

Business activity will remain unhindered as recreation is Business maintained. However, Y No boatyard close. 100 development there could be temporary disruption due to construction (minimal).

Environmental impacts Likely positive impacts due to potential improvement of freshwater dykes and Physical habitats Y freshwater wetlands but it is 0 considered that the washland would provide far greater conservation value.

Reduced erosion will Water quality Y reduce amount of n/a 100 suspended solids in water.

Water quantity N - -

Natural processes N - -

Historical N - - environment

42 Appendix B4.2 Table B4.2.3 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name River Chet flood protection scheme Improve (strengthening and raising to account for sea level rise and Description of option settlement – 1 in 20 years return period) The area being assessed comprises of the south (right) bank of the Description of area River Chet, running from Pyes Mill, near Loddon, to Nogdam End. affected by option

Impact Quantitative Qualitative description of Impact category likely? assessment of impacts impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Obstructed view from Landscape and higher embankments. Also Y 0 visual amenity piling will give canalised appearance to river.

Social impacts Annual value of recreation £9,500- Recreation can continue £29,500, but assumed unhindered (damages £7,100- Recreation Y that loss is only 50% of avoided) until year of £22,000 total value in case of breach. breach, thus £4,750- £14,750 Health and safety N - -

Availability and accessibility of N - - services

Equity N - -

More ‘equal’ treatment of Sense of Y communities at south bank 100 community and north bank.

Cross-cutting impacts This Option is more in line with the Strategy (Strategy’s preferred option is sustain). However, it does not take account of Policy integration Y 100 undefended areas, and the Strategy notes that protection of undefended properties is going to be improved.

Appendix B4.2 43 Table B4.2.4 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name River Chet flood protection scheme Description of option Flooding to high ground Description of area The area being assessed comprises of the south (right) bank of the River affected by option Chet, running from Pyes Mill, near Loddon, to Nogdam End.

Impact Quantitative Qualitative description of Impact category likely? assessment of impacts impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Economic impacts

The gardens of properties 4 gardens protected (as at risk of flooding would be for the improve option); protected to 1 in 20 Assets Y standard £400 Impact on local infrastructure difficult to Some impacts on local quantify. infrastructure

Existing grazing land becomes washland flooded 71.9ha agricultural land Land use Y £220,000 for the majority of the time. lost.

Transport N - -

Navigation is maintained by Business marking channel and Y 1 boatyard closes. 50 development dredging but not to existing depth.

Environmental impacts

Increased salinity, thus affecting soke dykes habitats. However flooding Number of units Physical habitats Y to high ground would result 100 unknown. in the creation of a wetland which could result in the creation of an SSSI.

Long term impact on quantity of suspended Water quality Y 0 sediment in the water due to increased erosion

Water quantity N - -

Natural processes N - -

Historical N - - environment

Landscape and Landscape changes from Number of units (ha) 100 visual amenity grazing marsh to washland. affected unknown.

44 Appendix B4.2 Table B4.2.4 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name River Chet flood protection scheme Description of option Flooding to high ground Description of area The area being assessed comprises of the south (right) bank of the River affected by option Chet, running from Pyes Mill, near Loddon, to Nogdam End.

Impact Quantitative Qualitative description of Impact category likely? assessment of impacts impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Social impacts

This option will have impacts on navigation. Assumes that 50% of £120,000- Picnic site may be lost (or total recreation, boat £380,000 Recreation Y part of it). based and informal recreation is affected. Birdwatching and wildfowling may increase

Health and safety N - - -

Availability and accessibility of N - - services

Equity N

Gardens will be protected but the loss of agricultural Sense of Y land and business could n/a 50 community affect the sense of community.

Cross-cutting impacts

Not in accordance with Strategy but may be in line Policy integration Y with English Nature and n/a 66 Broads Authority aspirations.

Appendix B4.2 45 Table B4.2.5 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name River Chet Flood Protection Scheme Description of option Maintain (1 in 5 year) and then flood to high ground (year 10) Description of area The area being assessed comprises of the south (right) bank of the River affected by option Chet, running from Pyes Mill, near Loddon, to Nogdam End. Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description assessment of likely? category of impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary

Economic impacts

The gardens of properties 4 gardens protected to at risk of flooding would 1 in 5 year standard to be protected to 1 in 5 year 9 then 1 in 20. Assets Y standard initially Neg. Impact on local Some impacts on local infrastructure difficult to infrastructure quantify.

Existing grazing land protected to 1 in 5 year 71.9ha agricultural land Land use Y until year 9 then becomes £200,000 lost in year 10. washland flooded for the majority of the time.

Transport N - -

No change until year 10 60 (if when 1 boatyard will marking Business 1 boatyard closure in Y close (navigation channel channel development year 10. is maintained by marking and channel and dredging). dredging)

Environmental impacts

Increased salinity as site is flooded after year 10 thus affecting soke dykes habitats. However Physical Number of units Y flooding to high ground 90 habitats unknown. would result in the creation of a wetland which could result in the creation of an SSSI.

Long term impact on quantity of suspended Water quality Y 10 sediment in the water due to increased erosion

Water quantity N - -

Natural N - - processes

46 Appendix B4.2 Table B4.2.5 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name River Chet Flood Protection Scheme Description of option Maintain (1 in 5 year) and then flood to high ground (year 10) Description of area The area being assessed comprises of the south (right) bank of the River affected by option Chet, running from Pyes Mill, near Loddon, to Nogdam End. Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description assessment of likely? category of impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary

Historical N - - environment

Landscape changes from Landscape and grazing marsh to 90 visual amenity washland after year 10.

Social impacts

This option will have impacts on navigation. Assumes that 50% of Picnic site may be lost (or £120,000 total recreation, boat Recreation Y part of it) - based and informal is £380,000 affected after year 10. Birdwatching and wildfowling may increase

Health and N - - - safety

Availability and accessibility of N - - services

Equity N

Gardens will be protected but the loss of agricultural land could affect the Sense of sense of community. Y 60 community However this will be in year 10 which will allow time for businesses to adapt.

Cross-cutting impacts

Not in accordance with Strategy but may be in Policy line with English Nature Y 75 Integration and Broads Authority aspirations and is in line with Defras exit strategy.

Appendix B4.2 47 Joint Defra/EA Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management R&D Programme

Annex B.5:

Case study no.5:

Assessment of the Humber Estuary shoreline management plan

R&D Project Record FD2013/PR2

Dissemination Status Internal: Released internally External: Released to public domain

Keywords: Multi criteria analysis, MCA, appraisal summary table, AST, decision rule

Acknowledgements The assistance of those providing information for the case studies is gratefully acknowledged.

Defra project manager: Matt Crossman, Defra, 3D Ergon House, Horseferry Rd, London, SW1P 2AL. Email: [email protected]

Publishing organisation Defra Flood Management Division Ergon House Horseferry Road London SW1P 2AL Tel: 020 7238 3000 Fax: 020 7238 6187 www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd

Published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Printed in the UK, March 2005 on recycled material containing 80% post-consumer waste and 20% totally chlorine free virgin pulp.

PB No. 10734/PR2 ISBN 0-85521-146-6

ii 1. Introduction

The Humber case study is based on the economic appraisal undertaken for the Humber Estuary shoreline management plan stage 2 study. This appraisal was undertaken by RPA in association with Black & Veatch for the Environment Agency in 2003. This approach included the completion of Appraisal Summary Tables (ASTs) to ensure that the non-quantified impacts were fully identified and could influence decision-making. For this case study, management unit 6 is used to investigate how the inclusion of multi-criteria analysis may have affected the decision.

1.1 Summary of the project area

Management Unit 6 runs from South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme and is mainly comprised of medium grade agricultural land for up to 3km inland. The main settlement in the area is Barton-upon-Humber. Clay pits immediately behind the defences between Chowder Ness and New Holland are important environmental and recreation sites, with some designated for their environmental value. There are also a number of small industrial areas, including New Holland Dock. The area is categorised as land use band C, with an indicative standard of 1:10 to 1:100 (taken from FCDPAG3).

1.2 Existing defences

About half of the defences between South Ferriby and New Holland Dock provide protection against a 1 in 50 year event. Around Barton Creek, some lengths of the defences give significantly lower standards. East of New Holland Dock, around 70% of the defences protect against an event with a return period of 1 in 20 years. In 50 years, the standard of defence is expected to fall such that about 50% of the defence will no longer protect against a 1 in 10 year event. The overall condition of the defences is fair to good. There is concern that erosion of mudflats may threaten the stability of the defences. There are also some lengths where the crest level of the embankment is low (Environment Agency, 2000).

1.3 The policy framework

The Humber Estuary Shoreline Management Plan (SMP) was published in September 2000 (Environment Agency, 2000). This sets out the Environment Agency’s vision for managing the flood defences of the Humber Estuary. The SMP has since been further developed in a Stage 2 study, which attempts to provide fully justified decisions on the policy for each management unit. For management unit 6, the SMP identifies that an appraisal is required to determine whether moving the line locally would be worthwhile. Elsewhere, the existing defences will generally be held on their present alignment until a length needs to be repaired or improved.

Section 1: Introduction 1 1.4 List of stakeholders and interested parties

A wide range of organisations was represented on the SMP Steering Group and is also involved in the Stage 2 study. As part of the Stage 2 study, a ranking exercise was carried out to identify which are the most important objectives for management of the estuary. The results of this exercise have been used to estimate weights for the Humber Estuary. The organisations involved in the Steering Group and ranking/weighting exercise are listed in Table 1.1.

Table 1.1 List of stakeholders for the Humber Estuary SMP

• Associated British Ports • Countryside Agency • British Association for Shooting and • Crown Estates Conservation • East Riding of Yorkshire Council • East Lindsey District Council • English Nature • English Heritage • Environment Agency (Midlands Region) • Environment Agency (Anglian Region) • Environment Agency (North East Region) • Humber Estuary Management • Humberside Internal Drainage Boards Strategy • Lincolnshire County Council • Kingston upon Hull City Council • National Farmers Union • Defra • North East Lincolnshire Council • North Lincolnshire Council • Royal Society for the Protection of Birds • Yorkshire and Lincolnshire Wildlife Trusts

Source: Environment Agency (2000)

2 Section 1: Introduction 2. Definition of objectives and management options

In the Humber Estuary SMP Stage 2, three options are assessed for Management Unit 6:

• Option 1: Do-nothing;

• Option 2: Hold the Line (low standard of 1:10); and

• Option 3: Hold the Line (high standard of 1:100).

For the case study, the Humber Estuary is to be assessed at the strategy level, such that five options will be assessed:

• Option 1: Do-nothing;

• Option 2: Maintain: standard of defence decreases from current level of 1:20 to a maintainable level of 1:10. The standard of defence decreases to 1:10 by year 9 due to the condition of the defences and to 1:5 by the end of the time horizon (due to sea level rise) (assumed to be equivalent to the ‘hold the line (low standard) option from the Humber Estuary SMP Stage 2);

• Option 3: Sustain: standard of defence is sustained at 1:20 throughout the 100 year time horizon;

• Option 4: Improve 1:50: standard of defence is improved to 1:100 throughout the 100 year time horizon; and

• Option 5: Improve 1:100: standard of defence is improved to 1:300 throughout the 100 time horizon) (assumed to be equivalent to the ‘hold the line (high standard) option from the Humber Estuary SMP Stage 2).

Section 2: Definition of objectives and management options 3 3. Structuring the problem

This section intends to break down the problem into its component parts, identifying the set of impacts and associated criteria that will be used to make the decision. In other words it carries out a screening exercise for management unit 6 of the Humber Estuary SMP.

3.1 Summary of the screening exercise

Table 3.1 summarises the results of the screening exercise, where this is based upon the results of the economic appraisal and completion of the appraisal summary table for the Humber Estuary SMP stage 2 study. For this reason, no detail screening AST is presented as an appendix.

Table 3.1 Table summarising the results of the screening exercise. Project name Humber Case Study: management unit 6 MU6 Category Details Monetary Score value

Economic impacts

Damages on residential and non-residential Assets 9 properties estimated in monetary terms.

Damages/losses of agricultural land/output Land use 9 estimated in monetary terms.

Potential impacts on main roads (A15, A1077 and access to Humber Bridge), local Transport 9 roads and railway line. May also be impacts on navigation channels.

Business development 9

Environmental impacts Area contains 8 SNCIs, 6 Wildlife Trust sites Physical habitats 9 and landward SSSI/SPA/Ramsar site at Barton and Barrow Clay Pits. Intensively farmed agricultural land with high Water quality 9 nutrient content. Also 19 discharge points within the management unit. Potential impacts on a locally important Water quantity 9 groundwater aquifer. Also 7 water

4 Section 3: Structuring the problem Table 3.1 Table summarising the results of the screening exercise. Project name Humber Case Study: management unit 6 MU6 Category Details Monetary Score value abstraction points within the management unit. Important intertidal habitats seaward of Natural processes 9 current defences. Management unit contains areas of high Historical environment 9 archaeological potential, one Scheduled Ancient Monument and listed buildings. Landscape and visual 9 Current landscape is rural agricultural. amenity

Social impacts Barton Clay Pits is an important recreation area, with a Visitor Centre. Intertidal habitats Recreation 9 are also important for birdwatching, walking and wildfowling. People and property are present within the Health and safety 9 indicative floodplain. Services, including shops, infrastructure, Availability and schools, hospitals, etc. present within the 9 accessibility of services management unit (particularly Barton-upon- Humber). Current deprivation index of 3,556 (ward of Equity 9 Haven). Mainly rural communities, but with larger Sense of community 9 development of Barton-upon-Humber. Cross-cutting impacts Humber Estuary SMP plus local and Policy integration 9 regional policies.

Section 3: Structuring the problem 5 4. Costs of options

The do-nothing option has zero (£0) costs. The costs of the other options are:

• Option 2: Maintain: £26,744,000;

• Option 3: Sustain (1:20): £40,000,000;

• Option 4: Improve (1:50): £48,000,000; and

• Option 5: Improve (1:100): £59,279,000.

All of these cost estimates include optimism bias (at 60%). The costs of the sustain and improve 1:50 options have been estimated specifically for this case study, while the costs for maintain and improve 1:100 are taken from the Humber Estuary SMP Stage 2 economic appraisal.

6 Section 4: Costs of options 5. Assessment of impacts

5.1. Qualitative and quantitative assessment

The assessment followed a stepped approach, starting with the qualitative assessment of all impact categories and moving to the quantitative assessment whenever information was available.

5.2 Monetary valuation of impacts

Monetary estimation of damages from flooding has been undertaken for the category of assets only. All other categories are assigned a score. The approaches used are in accordance with those set out in FCDAPG3 and the PAG3 spreadsheets have been used to provide the present value (i.e. discounted) estimates of damages over the 100-year time horizon.

5.2.1 Option 1: ‘do-nothing’

The ‘do-nothing’ option assumes that there will be a breach in the defences by year 10, with a current probability of breaching of 0.1. A breach would result in inundation of much of the area, such that 1,615 residential properties, 100 non- residential properties and 1,085 ha of agricultural land would be written off1. Sea level rise would result in the number of properties written off by year 99 (the end of the 100 year time horizon for the economic assessment) increasing to 1,730 residential properties, 103 non-residential properties and 1,221 ha of agricultural land.

Around the area written-off, there are additional residential and non-residential properties, and agricultural land that would face intermittent flooding and, hence, damages. The number of properties and area of land affected on different return period events are shown in Table 5.2.

1 Write-off is assumed to occur where flooding is more frequent than once every three years. Agricultural land written-off, is assumed to be converted to a different land use type (such as saltmarsh or mudflat). As it is not possible to place a relative value on these different land uses, the write-off cost for agricultural land is not included in the damages of the do- nothing option.

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 7 Table 5.1 Summary appraisal summary table - main assessment (summary MA-AST) Project name: Humber Estuary SMP – Strategy Description of Management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme) area affected: Impact Option 1: ‘Do- Option 2: Option 3: Option 4: Option 5: category nothing’ Maintain Sustain Improve 1:50 Improve 1:100 Economic impacts Almost 2,000 Inundation residences and written off of more than 100 1,730 residential Assets will be Assets will be Assets will be Assets industrial properties and protected. protected. protected. properties would 103 non- be flooded residential. intermittently. 1,221ha of Impact on Small impact Small impact 1,221ha of agricultural land agricultural land on agricultural on agricultural Land use agricultural land written off by following a land following land following flooded. year 99. breach. a breach. a breach. Loss of A15 (including The A15, A1077, Roads and access to railway line and railways Humber Bridge), Roads and Roads and local access roads protected but A1077, railway railways and railways and will be flooded flooded every 20 Transport line and local navigation navigation fairly regularly. No years, which access roads. channel would channel would impact on may lead to Navigation be protected. be protected. navigation serious channels in channels. disruption. estuary could also be affected. The impacts on Loss of so many future business residential and development Business Business non-residential Almost all only significant development development Business properties will businesses will be for businesses should be should be development mean that the affected at some whose largely largely area is no longer time by flooding. investment unaffected unaffected viable for many planning businesses. exceeds 20 years. Environmental impacts Loss of 60ha of Loss of 60ha of Loss of 8 SNCIs, intertidal intertidal 6 Wildlife Trust Designated sites habitat as a habitat as a sites and would be flooded Loss of 60ha of result of result of landward fairly frequently. Physical intertidal habitat coastal coastal SSSI/SPA/Rams Loss of 60ha of habitats as a result of squeeze. squeeze. ar site. intertidal habitat coastal squeeze Potential Potential Development of as a result of impact on impact on new intertidal coastal squeeze. integrity of integrity of habitat SPA. SPA. Flooding of agricultural land Water quality will Water quality will and STW will generally be generally be Water quality Water quality result in maintained, but maintained but Water quality will generally will generally reduction in release of release of be maintained. be maintained. water quality. pollutants every pollutants every Loss of 19 10 years. 20 years. discharge points. Water quantity Impact on Protection of water Potential Protection of Protection of

8 Section 5: Assessment of impacts Table 5.1 Summary appraisal summary table - main assessment (summary MA-AST) Project name: Humber Estuary SMP – Strategy Description of Management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme) area affected: Impact Option 1: ‘Do- Option 2: Option 3: Option 4: Option 5: category nothing’ Maintain Sustain Improve 1:50 Improve 1:100 aquifer. Loss of abstraction and saltwater aquifer aquifer 7 abstraction discharge points contamination of abstraction and abstraction and points. aquifer related to discharge discharge sea level rise points. points. Protection of abstraction and discharge points. Natural Landward Landward Landward Landward Natural migration of migration will be migration will be migration will migration will processes intertidal prevented. prevented. be prevented. be prevented. habitats. Loss of areas of SAM and listed high buildings flooded SAM and listed SAM and listed SAM and listed Historical archaeological on a regular basis. buildings buildings buildings flooded environment potential, 1 SAM Archaeological flooded every flooded every every 20 years. and listed sites likely to be 50 years. 100 years. buildings affected. Landscape Landscape Landscape Landscape generally generally Change from generally generally maintained. maintained. rural agricultural maintained. Visual maintained. Landscape and Visual impact Visual impact to mudflats, impact where Visual impact visual amenity where crest where crest saltmarsh and crest levels are where crest levels are levels are open water raised by up to levels are raised raised by up to raised by up to 0.6m by up to 0.6m 0.9m 0.9m Social impacts Loss of Barton Fairly frequent Facilities at Facilities at Clay Pits Facilities at flooding may Barton Clay Barton Clay Recreation recreation area Barton Clay Pits affect facilities at Pits will be Pits will be and visitor will be protected. Barton Clay Pits protected. protected. centre. Risk to people Risk to people Risk to people Risk to people Health and Uncontrolled risk would still be would still be would still be would still be safety to people. ‘high’. ‘moderate’. ‘low’. ‘low’. Services flooded Services Services Significant Availability and fairly frequently, protected and protected and reduction in Services would accessibility of with impact over only flooded only flooded services and be protected. services time due to flood very very access to them. frequency. infrequently. infrequently. Frequency of Flooding 1 every Area likely to Area likely to Impacts on area flooding may 20 years is retain current retain current Equity with deprivation affect job unlikely to affect or improved or improved index of 3,556 distribution. people. status. status. The loss of Risk to sense of Risk to sense of Sense of Sense of properties and community still community community community Sense of jobs will result in high’ due to would be low would be would be community loss of sense of frequency of due to frequency largely largely community. flooding. of flooding. unaffected. unaffected.

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 9 Table 5.2 Assets affected by intermittent flooding following a breach Residential Non-residential Agricultural (number Return Period properties properties of farms) Year 0 Year 99 Year 0 Year 99 Year 0 Year 99 1 in 10 74 93 3 6 1 3 1 in 50 132 99 6 7 3 6 1 in 100 169 99 6 7 6 6 1 in 500 214 99 10 7 8 6 Notes: Based on information provided by Black & Veatch and data included in Address-Point Excludes those properties that are written off

Of the non-residential properties, two properties (New Holland Bulk Services and Howarth Timber) have been found with rateable value exceeding £100,000. Damages for these properties are estimated based on the rateable value and depth-damage data for ‘industry’ (from the Multi-Coloured Manual). There is also an important gas terminal, but a rateable value was not available for this. Damages to commercial properties may, therefore, be underestimated.

Overtopping damages to properties prior to breaching are assumed to be negligible and have not been included in the damage estimates.

5.2.2 Option 2: maintain

For Land Use Band C, the ‘low standard’ hold the line is taken as 1 in 10 years (as given in FCDPAG3). The current standard of defence (year 0) is taken as 1 in 20, falling to 1 in 10 by year 9. The timing of intervention is, thus, assumed to be year 9 and to 1 in 5 by year 99. This assumption may not be consistent with the actual requirement for work to be undertaken on the defences. Issues on the timing of intervention will need to be addressed in the next stage of the study.

The damages under flooding events over and above the design standard are estimated by identifying the properties that would be flooded following a breach on a number of different events (1 in 3, 1 in 10, 1 in 50, 1 in 100 and 1 in 500) as a proportion of the total floodable area. The proportion of the total area is given in Table 5.3.

Table 5.3 Proportion of area flooded for option 2 Proportion of area flooded Return period Today 100 years 3 26% 29% 10 57% 62% 50 76% 81% 100 93% 94% 500 100% 100% Note: An area of the management unit is shown as floodable under the 1 in 3 and 1 in 10 events – this is because the standard in flood compartment 20 is 1 in 2.5 years. This does not affect the damage calculations, however, as no damages are included at or below the design standard.

10 Section 5: Assessment of impacts The total damages are entered into the Annual Average Damage (AAD) sheets of the PAG3 spreadsheet to provide an indication of damages under a ‘typical’ event.

5.2.3 Option 3: sustain

Damages for sustain are based on estimated damages for maintain in year 0. The maintain damages in year 0 are associated with a standard of defence of 1 in 20, which is the same as for the sustain option. Under sustain, the standard of defence remains at 1 in 20 throughout the 100-year time horizon.

5.2.4 Option 4: improve 1:50

To avoid the very large increase in standard offered by the Sustain and Improve 1 in 100 options, an intermediate option, improve 1:50, has also been assessed. The damages are estimated based on damages incurred under the sustain option, but with the standard of defence raised to 1 in 50. This means that the average annual damage is reduced, as no damages would occur on events equal or less than a 1 in 50 event.

5.2.5 Option 5: improve 1:100

For Land Use Band C, the ‘high standard’ Hold the Line is taken as 1 in 100 years (as given in FCDPAG3). The number of properties affected under Option 3 is based on the proportion of the Management Unit that is floodable. This is summarised in Table 5.4. The timing of intervention is assumed to be year 0. This assumption may not be consistent with the actual requirement for work to be undertaken on the defences. Issues on the timing of intervention will need to be addressed in the next stage of the study.

Table 5.4 Proportion of area flooded for option 3 Proportion of area flooded Return period Today 100 years 3 0% 0% 10 0% 0% 50 32% 35% 100 62% 67% 500 89% 91% Note: An area of the Management Unit is shown as floodable under the 1 in 50 and 1 in 100 events – this is because the standard in flood compartment 20 is 1 in 20 years. This does not affect the damage calculations, however, as no damages are included at or below the design standard.

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 11 5.3 Scoring of impacts

Management Unit 6 of the Humber Estuary shoreline management plan – stage 2 study has been used as a case study for the MCA project and for which a scoring system based on characteristic recovery time has been developed. The aim was to identify a scoring system that reflects the impacts of a flood on each category and where the scores can be calculated numerically using a more flood-focussed basis.

The scores for the Humber case study have been assigned using the basis of ‘recovery times’, where these are the minimum time required between events for impacts on that category to be reduced to zero. If a flood occurs before there has been time for full recovery, the impacts would be much greater than if the next flood event occurs several years after full recovery has been achieved. This approach allows the standard of defence provided by each option to be directly reflected in the score. For each category, it is necessary to determine two factors in order to be able to assign a score: • characteristic of the category that is affected by flooding; and • recovery time of that characteristic.

The characteristic is a measure of the amount of a particular category affected and could relate to an area, a number, etc. The recovery time is linked to the amount of years after the flood that the effects would continue to be felt. Once these two factors have been identified (or estimated), the scores can be calculated automatically using the same approach as is used in the Asset AAD worksheet of the FCDPAG3 spreadsheets.

The categories and their characteristic recovery times (ChaRT)

The scores for Management Unit 6 of the Humber Estuary SMP-Stage 2 case study have been calculated using a similar approach to that used in the Asset AAD worksheet of the FCDPAG3 spreadsheets. The characteristic recovery time (ChaRT) is used as the basis for estimating the consequence of flooding for each of the return period flood events. The score for each option is based upon the annual average damage as calculated by the worksheet. The worst performing option (that with the highest average annual damage) is assigned a score of zero. The best performing option (that with the lowest average annual damage), is assigned a score of 100. The remaining options are assigned a score according to the damage they would cause in relation to the best and worst options.

The characteristics and recovery times used to estimate the ChaRT scores for the Humber case study are given in Table 5.5.

12 Section 5: Assessment of impacts Table 5.5 Basis for the characteristic and recovery times for Humber MU6 Category Characteristic used Recovery time used

Economic impacts

Assets Valued in monetary terms 3 years for return period events of Hectares of agricultural fields <1 in 50; 5 years for floods with a Land use affected by different return return period of >1 in 50 period events Represents the time taken for yields to return to pre-flood levels 0.5 years for events more frequent than 1 in 20 years and 1 year for Length of roads and railways events >1 in 20 Transport affected (in km) affected by Represents the time taken for different return period events infrastructure to be repaired and disruption reduced to pre-flood levels 1 year for events of <1 in 50 and 2 Number of non-residential years for events >1 in 50 properties (NRPs) flooded Business development Represents the time required for under particular return period the NRPs to return to pre-flood events levels of production and output Environmental impacts Separated into number of 5 years for events of <1 in 50 and freshwater and intertidal 10 years for events >1 in 50 Physical habitats habitats affected under Represents the time taken for the different return period flood conservation value to return to pre- events flood levels 0.5 years for events of <1 in 50 and Hectares of agricultural fields 1 years for events >1 in 50 affected by different return Water quality Represents the time required for period events (source of salinity to be reduced and pre-flood contaminants) water quality to be re-established 1 year for events of <1 in 50 and 3 Number of waterbodies whose years for events >1 in 50 water quality would be affected Water quantity Represents the time required for under different return period salinity to be reduced such that events water can be abstracted Length of coastline affected (km) by change in ability to 5 years to recover to natural Natural processes function naturally (this category situation if defences are removed is independent of probability of flood events) Number of Scheduled Ancient Monuments and listed 5 years to recover to pre-flood Historical environment buildings flooded under conditions for all return period flood different return period flood events events 1 year for events <1 in 50 and 3 years for events >1 in 50 Landscape and visual Area of MU that would be Represents the time for the amenity flooded landscape to return to its pre-flood state

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 13 Table 5.5 Basis for the characteristic and recovery times for Humber MU6 Category Characteristic used Recovery time used

Social impacts Number of recreational sites 5 years for events <1 in 50 and 10 affected under different return years for events >1 in 50 to reflect Recreation period events and split into importance of conservation value freshwater and intertidal on recreation 1 year for events <1 in 20, 3 years Population flooded under for events between 1 in 20 and 1 in different return period events 50 and 5 years for events >1 in 50 Health and safety (based on number of Represents the time required for properties flooded) people’s health to recover to pre- flood levels 1 year for events <1 in 50 and 2 Availability and Number of services flooded years for events >1 in 50 accessibility of under different return period Represents the time required for services events services to return to pre-flood levels of operation Population within most 3 years for events <1 in 50 and 5 vulnerable groups flooded years for events >1 in 50 under different return period Equity Represents the time required for events (those with long-term recovery of the most vulnerable illness, in ethnic groups other groups than white and migrants) 2 years for events <1 in 50 and 4 Population flooded under years for events >1 in 50 different return period events Represents the time required for Sense of community (based on number of the knock-on effects of flooding to properties flooded) be minimised such that sense of community can be restored Cross-cutting impacts 5 years for all events Number of policies that would Represents the time required to Policy integration be discordant with flooding generate and implement new under each return period policies

Table 5.5 highlights the importance of the flood event on the score. This means that the scores assigned are effectively a measure of the risk of flooding, where the characteristic recovery time represents the consequence and the estimation of the ChaRT score brings in the probability of flooding through the use of an AAD- based calculation.

A summary of the scores calculated from the characteristics affected and recovery times given in Table 5.5 is provided in Table 5.6.

14 Section 5: Assessment of impacts Table 5.6 ChaRT scores for Humber case study (MU6) Do- Improve Improve Category Maintain Sustain Nothing 1:50 1:100 Land use 0 80 96 99 100 Transport 0 70 96 99 100 Business development 0 88 98 100 100 Physical habitats – 0 86 98 100 100 freshwater Physical habitats – 100 23 3 0 0 intertidal Water quality 0 76 96 99 100 Water quantity 0 89 99 100 100 Natural processes 0 87 99 100 100 Historical environment 0 87 99 100 100 Landscape and visual 0 74 94 99 100 amenity Recreation - terrestrial 0 86 98 100 100 Recreation - intertidal 100 20 3 0 0 Health and safety 0 81 97 99 100 Availability and 0 88 98 100 100 accessibility of services Equity 0 88 98 100 100 Sense of community 0 87 98 100 100 Policy Integration 0 89 100 100 100

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 15 6. Weighting

6.1 Elicitation of weights

As part of the selection of managed realignment sites for the Humber Estuary strategy, stakeholders on the project stakeholder group were asked to rank the scheme objectives in terms of which they considered to be most important and which least important. The sample size was relatively small (based on 12 responses) and was intended to identify which objectives were most/least important to facilitate comparison of qualitative impacts, rather than to assign a specific weight. However, a review of this data has allowed an indicative set of weights to be identified.

Due to the coarseness of the ranking exercise and the small number of responses, it has only been possible to assign weights to the impact types (i.e. economic, environmental, social and cross-cutting impacts). The weights have been identified, by following these steps: 1. the number of objectives within each impact type were summed; 2. the number of objectives ranked as being of ‘high’ importance by impact type were identified; 3. the number of responses identifying each objective as being of importance were summed; 4. normalisation of responses was undertaken by dividing the number of responses for each impact type by the total number of responses that was possible to give an initial percentage. This was then revised so that the total of the weights was 100%; and 5. the proportion that each impact type makes up of the overall total (as a percentage) is assumed to equal the weight assigned by members of the Humber Estuary strategy stakeholder group.

The weights elicited in this manner are: • economic impacts: 20%; • environmental impacts: 17%; • social impacts: 8%; and • cross-cutting impacts: 55%.

The spread of weights is very interesting and probably reflects the particular interests of the respondents (where most were national organisations represented on the stakeholder group by local representatives). The weight for social impacts is particularly low but there were no responses from local stakeholders (other than local councils). If people living in and around the Humber Estuary had been involved in the ranking exercise, the weight for social impacts may have been different. It is important to note that the elicitation of weights was not the intention of the ranking exercise, thus, the weights presented here do not reflect actual weights for the Humber Estuary strategy and are likely to include a considerable degree of uncertainty.

16 Section 6: Weighting 6.2 Application of the weights

The weights elicited from the stakeholders have been used with the scores to give an indication of the differences between the options in terms of intangible benefits. To do this, the scores for each sub-category have been summed to give a category total. This gives a total score for ‘economic’, ‘environmental’, ‘social’ and ‘cross-cutting impacts’. Summing the scores in this way assumes that the sub-categories are of equal weight. This may not be true but weights are not available at the sub-category level, hence, this is assumed to be appropriate for the case study.

The category totals are then normalised by dividing by the maximum score that could be obtained. This gives normalised scores for each category, which removes the effect of having a different number of sub-categories within each category. The weighted scores are then calculated by multiplying the normalised category scores by the category weights given in Section 6.1.

The weighted scores for each option are given in Table 6.1. The intangible-cost ratio is also given, where this is calculated as the weighted intangible score divided by the cost of each option (an intangible-cost ratio for do-nothing is not available as the cost of do-nothing is £0).

Table 6.1 Weighted scores for Humber case study (MU6) Improve Improve Category Do-nothing Maintain Sustain 1:50 1:100 Weighted score 4 83 94 95 96 Cost - £26,744k £40,000k £48,000k £59,279k Intangible-cost ratio Not available 0.0031 0.0024 0.002 0.0016

The weighted scores indicate that there is very little difference between sustain, improve 1:50 and improve 1:100 in terms of intangible benefits. The intangible cost-ratios are very small due to the difference in units between the scores (maximum of 100) and the costs (in millions of pounds)

Section 6: Weighting 17 7. Comparison of options

7.1 Selecting the preferred option

Table 7.1 presents a summary of the costs and benefits for management unit 6 based on the assumptions described above, over a 100-year time horizon. Also included are the intangible cost ratio and the decision criteria based on this information.

Table 7.1 shows that the preferred option from an economic perspective (i.e. including only the tangible benefits) would be between Option 2 (maintain) and Option 3 (sustain). The FCDPAG3 decision rule states that Option 3 (sustain) would require an incremental benefit-cost ratio over Option 2 (maintain) of robustly greater than 1 (indicated as being greater than 1.5). There may be an argument that the inclusion of 60% optimism bias would mean that an incremental benefit-cost ratio of 1.37 is robustly greater than one.

Table 7.1 Summary of costs and benefits for management unit 6 Costs and benefits Option 1: ‘Do- Option 2: Option 3: Option 4: Option 5: nothing’ Maintain Sustain Improve 1:50 Improve 1:100 PV costs from estimates (include - £26,744,000 £40,000,000 £48,000,000 £59,279,000 optimism bias at 60%) PV damage £164,163,000 £20,881,000 £2,781,000 £556,000 £247,000 PV damage - £143,282,000 £161,381,000 £163,607,000 £163,916,000 avoided Total PV - £143,282,000 £161,381,000 £163,607,00 £163,916,000 benefits Net Present - £116,538,000 £121,381,000 £115,607,000 £104,637,000 Value (NPV) Average benefit/cost - 5.36 4.03 3.41 2.77 ratio Incremental benefit/cost - - 1.37 0.28 0.03 ratio Weighted 4 83 94 95 96 Score Intangible-cost Not available 0.0031 0.0024 0.002 0.0016 ratio Incremental intangible/ Not available Not available 0.0014 0.0002 0.0000 cost ratio

18 Section 7: Comparison of options Table 7.1 Summary of costs and benefits for management unit 6 Costs and benefits Option 1: ‘Do- Option 2: Option 3: Option 4: Option 5: nothing’ Maintain Sustain Improve 1:50 Improve 1:100 Required incremental - - 1.52 3.0 3.0 benefit-cost ratio Benefits required to - - £163,166,000 £185,381,000 £197,444,000 move to higher option k - - £1,785,000 £21,775,000 £33,528,000 k per point - - £154,000 £22,737,000 £148,770,000 k as % of tangible - - 1.1% 13.3% 20.5% benefits

Inclusion of the intangible benefits requires the consideration of four criteria:

• the benefits required to give an incremental benefit-cost ratio of 1.5 to allow Option 3 (sustain) to be preferred over Option 2 (maintain); • the ‘k’ value, where this is the minimum that the intangible benefits must be equal to give an incremental benefit-cost ratio of 1.5; • the ‘k per point’ value, which indicates how much each additional point of the weighted score must be equal to (or greater than) for Option 3 (sustain) to be preferred over Option 2 (maintain); and • the proportion that the minimum ‘k’ required to change the decision represents of the tangible benefits.

Table 7.1 shows that the benefits of Option 3 (sustain) must be equal to (or greater than) £163,166,000 for Option 3 (sustain) to have an incremental benefit-cost ratio of 1.5 (or above). This means that the intangible benefits (k) must be worth at least £1,785,000. The ‘k per point’ of £154,000 is less useful in this comparison, but does give an indication of the difference between the two options. For Option 3 (sustain) to be preferred over Option 2 (maintain) in line with the FCDPAG3 decision rule, ‘k’ must be at least 1.1% of the tangible benefits. It seems reasonable that the additional benefits described in the AST and assigned a score are worth at least 1.1% of the tangible benefits, thus Option 3 (sustain) is selected as the preferred option.

The ‘k per point’ values become more useful when comparing Option 4 (improve 1:50) with Option 3 (sustain). Here the ‘k per point’ value exceeds the ‘k’ value, showing how close the two options are in terms of their weighted

Section 7: Comparison of options 19 intangible score. Here, the ‘k per point’ must be at least £22,737,000 for Option 4 (improve 1:50) to be preferred over Option 3 (sustain). The intangible benefits are not likely to be this significant and Option 3 (sustain) is confirmed as the preferred option.

7.2 Use of the comparator table for the Humber case study

To move from maintain to sustain, the intangible benefits must be worth at least £1.8 million. Sustain scores an additional 11 points over maintain on the weighted score. Each of these 11 points has to be worth £155,000 for Sustain to be preferred over Maintain. The additional points are made up as follows:

• economic impacts: 3 points (land use, transport and business development); • environmental impacts: 2 points (water quality, water quantity, natural processes and historical environment); and • cross-cutting impacts: 6 points.

The two options have the same weighted score for social impacts.

The score calculator sheet shows that drainage is likely to be affected on 256 ha-yrs under sustain and (one average) 1,649 ha-yrs for maintain3. If the damages relate to a change from bad to very bad drainage, or a value per ha of £100 to £200 from the comparator table, the benefits provided by the sustain option can be calculated as £139,000 to £279,000. This is the lowest value change from the comparator table and indicates that the benefits for sustain over maintain are likely to be at least equal to the minimum value required to make sustain the preferred option.

Damages under maintain for transport are given as 2.075 km-yrs, while for sustain the damages are 0.3 km-yrs 4. The comparator table does not give an indication of costs in kilometres, but, if delays are proportional to the length of railway track affected, the sustain option would have to reduce delays compared with maintain by, at least, 1,940 minutes (or 32.3 hours). This is equivalent to 19 minutes per year. The Multi-Coloured Manual gives approximate delays of: • up to and including 10 year return period: 0 hours; • up to and including 25 year return period: 12 hours; • up to and including 50 year return period: 24 hours; • up to and including 100 year return period: 48 hours; and • up to and including 200 year return period: 96 hours.

3 The score calculator multiplies area affected by recovery time in years, giving a unit that reflects both area affected and the years during which time it is recovering from the effects of a flood over the 100 year time horizon. 4 The score calculator multiplies km of road/railway affected by year of recovery, giving a unit that can be expressed as km-yrs.

20 Section 7: Comparison of options Sustain provides a 1 in 20 standard of defence while maintain provides 1 in 20 standard falling to 1 in 5. Therefore, three events greater than 1 in 10 and less than (or equal to) a 1 in 20 year return period would account for the required difference between the two options. This is not unreasonable within a 100-time horizon.

The comparator table suggests that indirect damages to industrial and commercial premises may be 30% of direct losses. The damages to NRPs are estimated at 50% of the residential damages, such that damages to NRPs from the maintain option can be estimated at £10.4 million and from the sustain option at £1.4 million. If the indirect damages are 30% of the direct losses, the indirect damages would be worth an estimated £3.1 million under the maintain option and just £0.4 million under the sustain option – a difference of £2.7 million. This far exceeds the £155,000 required per point and even the £1.8 million difference between the two options. Thus, it appears that the sustain option is likely to be preferred over the maintain option when the additional intangible benefits are taken into account.

Further benefits relate to the environmental impacts, particularly water quality and landscape, and to crosscutting impacts. The difference in crosscutting impacts is the most significant (accounting for 6 weighted score points). Sustain is likely to be in line with most policies whereas maintain also most certainly will not be. However, no comparator value is available here.

Overall, therefore, it appears that sustain is robustly preferred over maintain and that the intangible benefits are likely to be worth considerably more than the £1.8 million required to increase the incremental benefit-cost ratio to 1.5.

Section 7: Comparison of options 21 8. References

BV (2003): Humber Estuary SEA Draft Appraisal, version 2.0.

BV (2003): Humber Estuary SEA Draft Appraisal, MU Appraisal Tables, version1.0.

Environment Agency (2000): The Humber Estuary Shoreline Management Plan, September 2000.

Environment Agency (2003): Flood Event Contours, map of each Management Unit for current water levels and water levels in 50 years, scale varies from 1:28,000 to 1:130,000, provided by Black & Veatch.

Land Registry Internet Site: http://www.landreg.gov.uk/ppr/interactive/ppr_ualbs. asp.

MAFF (now Defra) (1999): Flood and Coastal Defence Project Appraisal Guidance Economic Appraisal, FCDPAG3, December 1999.

Middlesex University Flood Hazard Research Centre (2003): The Benefits of Flood and Coastal Defence: Techniques and Data for 2003 (Multi-Coloured Manual), draft.

Nix J (2003): Farm Management Pocketbook, 34th Edition (2004), Imperial College at Wye, September 2003.

Office of the Deputy Prime Minister (ODPM) Internet Site: http://wwww.odpm.gov.uk/ stellent/groups/odpm_planning/documents/source/odpm_plan_source_609426. doc.

RPA (2004): The Appraisal of Human-Related Intangible Impacts of Flooding, final report for Defra (FD2005/TR) August 2004.

Valuation Agency Office Internet Site: http://open.voa.gov.uk/rating/irlw_2000.list.

22 Section 8: References Appendix B5.1

Appraisal summary table for main assessment – MA-AST for the Humber Estuary SMP – management unit 6

Appendix B5.1 23 Table B5.1.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Humber Estuary SMP – strategy Description of option Do-nothing Description of area Management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme) affected by option Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary Economic

impacts

There are also properties around the written-off zone that would be flooded intermittently. These vary according to the Inundation of 1,615 return period of a residential properties and flood event from 100 non-residential 74 residential and properties. Sea level rise 5 non-residential Write-off and would result in the number properties on a 1 intermittent of properties flooded in 10 event (year flooding Assets Y increasing to 1,730 0) to 214 damages of residential properties and residential and 12 £164 million 103 non-residential non-residential (PV). properties by year 99. All of properties on a 1 these properties would be in 500 event (year written off. 0). One non- residential property (a gas terminal) has not been included in the economic assessment as a rateable value was not available.

However, this land would be converted to saltmarsh or In year 0, 1,085ha of mudflat. It is not agricultural land would be possible to place Land use Y written off. This would a relative value on increase to 1,221ha by year agricultural land 99. versus saltmarsh/mudflat, hence, write-off costs to agricultural land are not included in

24 Appendix B5.1 Table B5.1.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Humber Estuary SMP – strategy Description of option Do-nothing Description of area Management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme) affected by option Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary the damages. Loss of A15 (including access to Humber Bridge), A1077, railway line and local Transport Y access roads. Navigation channels in estuary could also be affected due to change in estuary shape. Loss of so many residential and non-residential Business Y properties will mean that the development area is no longer viable for many businesses.

Environmental

impacts Development of new intertidal habitat will maintain conservation status of the estuary. Physical Y Loss of 8 SNCIs, 6 Wildlife habitats Trust sites and landward SSSI/SPA/Ramsar site (Barton and Barrow Clay Pits).

Flooding of intensively farmed agricultural land and STW will result in initial Loss of 19 Water quality Y reduction in water quality discharge points. locally. Over time intertidal habitat could become sink for contaminants.

Adverse impact on Loss of 7 water Water quantity Y groundwater aquifer. abstraction points.

Natural migration of Natural Y intertidal habitats due to sea processes level rise.

Loss of areas of high Historical archaeological potential, 1 Y environment scheduled Monument and listed buildings.

Appendix B5.1 25 Table B5.1.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Humber Estuary SMP – strategy Description of option Do-nothing Description of area Management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme) affected by option Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary Change in landscape character from rural Landscape and Y agricultural to intertidal visual amenity mudflats, saltmarsh and open water. Social

Impacts Loss of Barton Clay Pits recreation area and visitor Recreation Y centre. Disturbance and loss of access for walking and birdwatching. Uncontrolled risk to people Health and and property from flooding Y safety which could result in the loss of life. Availability and Significant reduction in accessibility of Y services and access to services them. Impacts on area with deprivation index of 3,556 (assumed to be Haven). Area likely to be abandoned Equity Y with people moving elsewhere with loss of property, livelihood and community. The loss of properties and jobs will result in an almost Sense of Y complete loss of sense of community community with most people moving out of the area. Cross-cutting

impacts Do-nothing is contrary to all policies for this area. Policy Environmental policies are Y integration also likely to be discordant with do-nothing due to impacts on the Clay Pits.

26 Appendix B5.1 Table B5.1.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Humber Estuary SMP – Strategy Description of option Maintain (1:20 decreasing to 1:10 by year 9 and to 1:5 by year 99) Description of area Management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme) affected by option Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary

Economic impacts

The gradual decline in standards over time (from Almost 2,000 residential 1:20 in year 0 to 1:10 in Flood properties and more year 9 and 1:5 by year 99) damages than 100 non-residential means that damages to due to properties would be Assets Y properties increase over breaching flooded intermittently on time as more and more of £21 the 1:500 year event properties are affected. million under the maintain On a 1:500 year event, all (PV). option. of the indicative floodplain would be affected

There may also be Large areas of land will intermittent flooding be affected, with Land use Y damages following a 1,221ha of agricultural breach on agricultural land flooded on a 1:500 land. year event.

The A15, A1077, railway line and local access roads will be protected but flooded fairly regularly Transport Y which may lead to serious disruption. No impact on navigation channels anticipated.

Protection of the area to a standard of 1:10 reducing to 1:5 will mean that almost all businesses will be affected at some time. Business Y This is likely to affect development future business development by reducing investment and encouraging businesses to move out of the area.

Appendix B5.1 27 Table B5.1.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Humber Estuary SMP – Strategy Description of option Maintain (1:20 decreasing to 1:10 by year 9 and to 1:5 by year 99) Description of area Management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme) affected by option Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary

Environmental impacts

8 SNCIs, 6 Wildlife Trust sites and 1 landward SSSI (Barton Clay Pits) would Flooding of some areas be protected but flooded with a frequency of 1 in on a fairly frequent 5 years may encourage basis.(1 in 10 reducing to 1 localised development Physical in 5 year standard). Loss of saltmarsh where Y habitats of intertidal habitat as a freshwater habitats result of coastal squeeze cannot recover before and flood defence works flooding recurs. Such encroaching on the areas are likely to be foreshore will result in loss very localised, however. of 60ha, which will require replacing. Water quality will generally Loss of intertidal habitat be maintained but more will reduce are of regular flooding will result contaminant sink. Some in the release of nutrients Water quality Y waste generation from from the arable land and refurbishment and STW. replacement of existing defences.

Potential contamination may reduce availability of Water quantity Y aquifer. Protection of water abstraction and discharge points.

Natural processes and Natural Y landward migration will be processes prevented.

The Scheduled Monument and listed buildings will be protected but will still be flooded on a regular basis. Historical The archaeological Y environment potential of the area is likely to be significantly affected, with potential loss of sites before they are discovered/excavated.

28 Appendix B5.1 Table B5.1.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Humber Estuary SMP – Strategy Description of option Maintain (1:20 decreasing to 1:10 by year 9 and to 1:5 by year 99) Description of area Management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme) affected by option Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary

Landscape character generally maintained with some small temporary impact during construction phases, although there Landscape and Y may be some changes visual amenity near to the defences where flooding is relatively frequent. Permanent visual impact where crest levels are raised by up to 0.6m.

Social impacts Loss of intertidal habitat may reduce enjoyment Loss of intertidal habitat for birdwatchers. may affect wildfowlers. Construction works and Recreation Y Fairly frequent flooding more frequent flooding may affect facilities at may result in temporary Barton Clay Pits. disruption. Potential for footpaths on top of defences. Risk of flooding would be less than under do-nothing Health and and would be more Y safety controlled but risk would still be ‘high’ (1 in 10 reducing to 1 in 5).

Services protected but would be flooded fairly frequently. Could have an impact on services over Availability and time as the frequency of accessibility of Y flooding may encourage services some services to move out of the area making them less accessible to some groups.

Appendix B5.1 29 Table B5.1.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Humber Estuary SMP – Strategy Description of option Maintain (1:20 decreasing to 1:10 by year 9 and to 1:5 by year 99) Description of area Management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme) affected by option Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary The movement of Frequent flooding may services to higher effect agriculture and ground may make them industry and affect Equity Y less accessible to some workforce who may not be groups and may in a position to move jobs increase their or house. vulnerability. Sense of community could be significantly affected with many homeowners and businesses being Sense of flooded during their time in Y community any one property. Those who are able to move out of the area may wish to do so, dividing the community.

Cross-cutting impacts

Intertidal habitat is likely to be lost due to coastal squeeze. The standard of defence is a long way under the ABI minimum standard of 1:75 years. The local economy will be Policy Y seriously affected while integration planning and development of the area will be severely restricted. This option is, therefore, likely to be discordant with many policies for the management unit.

30 Appendix B5.1 Table B5.1.3 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Humber Estuary SMP – Strategy Description of option Sustain (1:20) Description of area Management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme) affected by option Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary

Economic impacts

Flood The sustain option would damages provide a standard of due to Assets Y defence of 1:20 such that breaching damages would not of £2.9 increase over time. million (PV).

There may be intermittent flooding damages Land use Y following a breach on agricultural land.

The A15, A1077, railway line and local access roads will be protected but flooded on average once Transport Y every 20 years, which may lead to serious disruption. No impact on navigation channels anticipated.

The impacts on future business development Protection of the area to a through investment standard of 1:20 will mean should be reduced and Business Y that only some businesses would only be development will be affected at some significant for larger time. businesses whose investment planning would exceed 20 years.

Appendix B5.1 31 Table B5.1.3 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Humber Estuary SMP – Strategy Description of option Sustain (1:20) Description of area Management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme) affected by option Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary

Environmental

Impacts

8 SNCIs, 6 Wildlife Trust Loss of intertidal habitat sites and 1 landward SSSI as a result of coastal (Barton Clay Pits) would squeeze and flood be protected but flooded Physical defence works Y on average once every 20 habitats encroaching on the years. This is likely to be foreshore will result in sufficiently infrequent to loss of 60ha, which will allow recovery of require replacing. freshwater habitats. Loss of intertidal habitat Water quality will generally will reduce area of be maintained but flooding contaminant sink. Some on average once every 20 Water quality Y waste generation from years will result in the refurbishment and release of nutrients from replacement of existing the arable land and STW. defences. Potential saltwater contamination may reduce availability of aquifer; this may be more related to sea level rise than the Water quantity Y standard of defence provided, however. Protection of water abstraction and discharge points.

Natural processes and Natural Y landward migration will be processes prevented.

The Scheduled Monument and listed buildings will be protected but will still be The archaeological flooded on average once Historical potential of the area Y every 20 years. This may environment may be affected by require on-going repeated flooding. maintenance works to avoid deterioration of the building structure.

32 Appendix B5.1 Table B5.1.3 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Humber Estuary SMP – Strategy Description of option Sustain (1:20) Description of area Management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme) affected by option Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary

Landscape character maintained with some small temporary impact Landscape and Y during construction visual amenity phases. Permanent visual impact where crest levels are raised by up to 0.6m.

Social impacts

Loss of intertidal habitat Loss of intertidal habitat may affect wildfowlers. may reduce enjoyment The facilities at Barton for birdwatchers. Clay Pits may be affected Construction works and Recreation Y by flooding, but should be more frequent flooding sufficiently infrequent to may result in temporary allow full repairs to be disruption. Potential for made well in advance of footpaths on top of the next flood. defences.

Risk of flooding would be less than under do-nothing Health and Y and would be more safety controlled but risk would still be ‘moderate’ (1 in 20).

Services protected and the frequency of flooding is unlikely to result in significant impacts, unless some long-lived assets have to be replaced earlier Availability and than would otherwise be accessibility of Y the case. It is unlikely that services services would move out of the area, although those services requiring high levels of technology (e.g. hospitals) may move to higher ground.

Appendix B5.1 33 Table B5.1.3 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Humber Estuary SMP – Strategy Description of option Sustain (1:20) Description of area Management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme) affected by option Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary

Flooding on average once every 20 years is unlikely to affect most people. Some groups may be disadvantaged more than Equity Y others where larger companies decide to move out of the area to protect their investments or technology reliant services move to higher ground.

Most homeowners would be unaffected by flooding once every 20 years. If larger companies move Sense of out of the area, this may Y community force some employees to move with the companies but should have only a minor effect on sense of community.

Cross-cutting impacts

Intertidal habitat is likely to be lost due to coastal squeeze. The standard of defence is a below the ABI minimum standard of 1:75 years. The local economy Policy Y may be affected should integration larger companies decide to move out of the area. This option is, therefore, likely to be discordant with some policies for the management unit.

34 Appendix B5.1 Table B5.1.4 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Humber Estuary SMP – strategy Description of option Improve (1:50) Description of area Management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme) affected by option Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary Economic impacts The damages to properties on Flood the improve 1:50 option would damages come from flooding following due to breaching of the defences. The Assets Y breaching breach would be repaired such of £0.56 that damages are temporary million and no properties are written (PV). off. There may also be intermittent flooding damages following a breach on agricultural land. Land use Y The extent of flooding will be less than for the Maintain and Sustain options, but greater than the Improve 1:100 option. The A15, A1077, railway line and local access roads will be protected and only flooded Transport Y very infrequently. No impact on navigation channels anticipated. Protection of the area to a standard of 1:50 will mean that most businesses will trade normally and that damages will Business be very infrequent (on Y development average). This should have little or no effect on investment such that business development should be largely unaffected.

Appendix B5.1 35 Table B5.1.4 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Humber Estuary SMP – strategy Description of option Improve (1:50) Description of area Management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme) affected by option Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary Environmental impacts 8 SNCIs, 6 Wildlife Trust sites and 1 landward SSSI (Barton Clay Pits) would be protected to a 1 in 50 year standard. Loss of intertidal habitat as a result of coastal squeeze and flood defence works Physical encroaching on the foreshore Y habitats will result in loss of 60ha, which will require replacing. Also if this option is shown to have an adverse impact on the integrity of the SPA it will be necessary to prove that there are no alternatives to this option. Water quality will generally be secured and reduced risk of flooding will result in the release of few nutrients from the STW. Loss of intertidal Water quality Y habitat will reduce area of contaminant sink. Some waste generation from refurbishment and replacement of existing defences. Aquifer will have high degree of protection. Protection of Water quantity Y water abstraction and discharge points. Natural processes and Natural Y landward migration will be processes prevented. The Scheduled Ancient Monument and listed buildings Historical will be protected to a high Y environment standard (1 in 50 years). The archaeological potential of the area will be secured.

36 Appendix B5.1 Table B5.1.4 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Humber Estuary SMP – strategy Description of option Improve (1:50) Description of area Management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme) affected by option Quantitative Impact assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. Score units/monetary) Monetary Landscape character maintained with some small temporary impact during Landscape and Y construction phases. visual amenity Permanent visual impact where crest levels are raised by over 0.9m. Social impacts Loss of intertidal habitat may affect wildfowlers. Infrequent flooding will protect facilities at Barton Clay Pits. Loss of intertidal habitat may reduce Recreation Y enjoyment for birdwatchers. Construction works and infrequent flooding may result in temporary disruption. Potential for footpaths on top of defences. Risk of flooding low (1 in 50 Health and Y years) and would be more safety controlled. Availability and Services protected and only accessibility of Y flooded very infrequently. services Area likely to retain current or improved status with protection Equity Y afforded to all members of society. Sense of community would be largely unaffected with most Sense of Y homeowners and businesses community not being flooded during their time in any one property. Cross-cutting impacts The standard of defence does not meet the ABI minimum standard of 1:75 years and Policy intertidal habitat is likely to be Y integration lost due to coastal squeeze. Otherwise, the option is largely concordant with policies for the management unit.

Appendix B5.1 37 Table B5.1.5 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Humber Estuary SMP – strategy Description of option Improve (1:100) Description of area Management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme) affected by option Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary Economic impacts The damages to properties on the Flood improve 1:100 option would come damages from flooding following breaching due to Assets Y of the defences. The breach would breaching be repaired such that damages of £0.25 are temporary and no properties million are written off. (PV). There may also be intermittent flooding damages following a breach on agricultural land. The Land use Y extent of flooding will be less than for the Maintain, Sustain and Improve 1:50 options. The A15, A1077, railway line and local access roads will be Transport Y protected and only flooded very infrequently. No impact on navigation channels anticipated. Protection of the area to a standard of 1:100 will mean that almost all businesses will trade normally and that damages will be Business Y very infrequent (on average). This development should have no significant effect on investment such that business development should be largely unaffected.

38 Appendix B5.1 Table B5.1.5 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Humber Estuary SMP – strategy Description of option Improve (1:100) Description of area Management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme) affected by option Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary Environmental

Impacts 8 SNCIs, 6 Wildlife Trust sites and 1 landward SSSI (Barton Clay Pits) would be protected to a 1 in 100 year standard. Loss of intertidal habitat as a result of coastal squeeze and flood Physical defence works encroaching on the Y habitats foreshore will result in loss of 60ha, which will require replacing. Also if this option is shown to have an adverse impact on the integrity of the SPA it will be necessary to prove that there are no alternatives to this option. Water quality will generally be secured and reduced risk of flooding will result in the release of few nutrients from the STW. Loss Water quality Y of intertidal habitat will reduce area of contaminant sink. Some waste generation from refurbishment and replacement of existing defences. Aquifer will have high degree of Water quantity Y protection. Protection of water abstraction and discharge points. Natural Natural processes and landward Y processes migration will be prevented. The Scheduled Monument and listed buildings will be protected to Historical Y a high standard (1 in 100 year). environment The archaeological potential of the area will be secured. Landscape character maintained with some small temporary impact Landscape and during construction phases. Y visual amenity Permanent visual impact where crest levels are raised by over 0.9m. Social impacts

Appendix B5.1 39 Table B5.1.5 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Humber Estuary SMP – strategy Description of option Improve (1:100) Description of area Management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme) affected by option Quantitative Impact Impact Qualitative description of assessment of likely? category impacts impacts value (Y/N) Score

(no. units/monetary) Monetary Loss of intertidal habitat may affect wildfowlers. Infrequent flooding will protect facilities at Barton Clay Pits. Loss of intertidal Recreation Y habitat may reduce enjoyment for birdwatchers. Construction works and infrequent flooding may result in temporary disruption. Potential for footpaths on top of defences. Risk of flooding low (1 in 100 Health and Y years) and would be more safety controlled. Availability and Services protected and only accessibility of Y flooded very infrequently services Area likely to retain current or Equity Y improved status with protection afforded to all members of society. Sense of community would be unaffected with most homeowners Sense of Y and businesses not being flooded community during their time in any one property. Cross-cutting impacts Intertidal habitat is likely to be lost due to coastal squeeze. Otherwise, the option is largely Policy Y concordant with policies for the integration management unit. The standard of defence meets the ABI minimum standard of 1:75 years.

40 Appendix B5.1 Joint Defra/EA Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management R&D Programme

Annex B.6:

Case study no.6:

Assessment of the Lower Don strategy study

R&D Project Record FD2013/PR2

Dissemination Status Internal: Released internally External: Released to public domain

Keywords: Multi criteria analysis, MCA, appraisal summary table, AST, decision rule

Acknowledgements The assistance of those providing information for the case studies is gratefully acknowledged.

Defra project manager: Matt Crossman, Defra, 3D Ergon House, Horseferry Rd, London, SW1P 2AL. Email: [email protected]

Publishing organisation Defra Flood Management Division Ergon House Horseferry Road London SW1P 2AL Tel: 020 7238 3000 Fax: 020 7238 6187 www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd

Published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Printed in the UK, March 2005 on recycled material containing 80% post-consumer waste and 20% totally chlorine free virgin pulp.

PB No. 10734/PR2 ISBN 0-85521-146-6

ii 1. Introduction

This report presents the MCA-based project appraisal process for part of the Lower Don Flood Defence Strategy Study. This strategy assessment was based on the original appraisal process carried out on behalf of the Environment Agency (EA).

The information reported here is based on the following document:

Atkins (2004): Lower Don strategy study - draft report, report produced for the Environment Agency North East Region, March 2004.

This strategy study is associated and linked with the Upper Don strategy plan, and they both will provide the overall framework for flood protection in the Don catchment.

The appraisal approach followed in this strategy study is in many ways similar to the one followed in the MCA-based approach, in particular in relation to the following points:

• it bases the option appraisal on strategic objectives and sub-objectives and covers very similar issues to those covered in the impact types and categories used in the Assessment Summary Tables (ASTs) prepared for the MCA-based methodology; and • it uses a simple scoring system to assess each of the proposed options in relation to each of the strategic objectives and sub-objectives.

These characteristics were used to illustrate key issues arising from the current flood defence appraisal process and these are tackled in the MCA-based approach.

Acknowledging that government guidance recommends a 100-year time horizon, the time horizon chosen for this strategy is 50 years. This is because of a number of external factors such as development of robust climate change predictions, changes in government policy and legislation, and stakeholder acceptability (Atkins, 2004). In addition, the policies and measures developed for the next 50 years and the prioritised 5-year programme of works are considered not to change should the 100-year appraisal period be adopted (Atkins, 2004).

1.1 Summary of the project area

The area covered by the Lower Don Strategy Study includes the River Don between Doncaster and Goole. Wheatley has been taken as the upstream limit of the study for the right bank and the confluence of the Ea Beck with the River Don has been taken for the left bank. The downstream limit is Goole, located at the confluence with the River Ouse. Figure 1.1 illustrates the area being considered.

Section 1: Introduction 1 The total area of the Don catchment is 1682km2, but the Lower Don study area only covers approximately 400 km2 of the total.

Figure 1.1 Overview of the Lower Don catchment study area (adopted from Atkins, 2004)

This strategy study covers the lower part of the River Don catchment, including its tributaries the Rivers Aire, Went, Ouse and Ea Beck. Located within the study area are the urban areas of Goole, Thorne, Stainforth, Edenthorp Kirk Sandall and Doncaster. However, the majority of the study area is covered by agricultural land.

The Lower Don area is crossed by the M62 and M18 motorways and by the East Coast Mainline railway.

1.2 Existing defences

A fundamental consideration of this strategy is the inter-relationship between the Lower Don and neighbouring rivers in respect to shared flood risk. In order to investigate risk issues associated with the River Don, neighbouring rivers and relatively low lying areas in between, the river catchment has been divided into Flood Management Units (FMU). A FMU is defined as the area at risk from inundation following a catastrophic breach of the flood defence system from one or more of the surrounding watercourses, which is not repaired. Furthermore, the flood defence forming each FMU have been divided into discrete sections/stretches, primarily based on individual reaches identified as part of the geotechnical risk assessment undertaken previously. Flood defence reaches

2 Section 1: Introduction have been classified according to the sampling frequency and embankment ground conditions. Five FMUs have been defined for the Lower Don catchment and are presented and described in Table 1.1.

Table 1.1: Flood management units for the Lower Don FMU Description 1 The River Ouse at Goole and Hook forms the eastern side of the FMU. Goole, Aimyn, The River Aire between Snaith and Airmyn forms the northern boundary Rawcliffe with the western edge being formed by relatively high ground in the vicinity of Snaith, Cowick and Pollington. The River Went and the Dutch River, to the south, complete the FMU boundary. The Aire-Calder Navigation and M62 pass east-west across the FMU, and there are significant drainage structures connecting through these assets. 2 FMU 2 is the largest single unit within the Lower Don Strategy. The Thorn, Crowle, western edge is defined by the right bank of the River Don between Reedness Thorne and New Bridge. The Dutch River and the River Ouse, downstream to Trent Falls, forms the northern boundary. In the east it is bounded by the River Trent from approximately Keadby to its confluence with the River Ouse. The southern perimeter has been assumed as the M180 motorway since this boundary has historically been used in previous studies. Both the M180 and the Stainforth – Keadby Canal are assumed to have significant drainage connectivity through them. 3 The east of FMU 3 is bounded by the River Don between the River Went Kirk Bramwith, and Ea Beck. The latter two watercourses form the northern and southern Fishlake, edges respectively. A large extent of the western boundary is defined by Sykehouse the East Coast Main-line railway for the purpose of this study. The railway is situated to the west of New Junction Canal. There is significant drainage connectivity under the canal giving rise to potential flooding towards the railway. This is generally mitigated by the local topography to the west. However a low lying area exists in the vicinity of Owsten Wood and Tilts Farm, where flooding may occur from the locality of Thorpe in Balne. 4 FMU 4 is bounded in the north by the River Don. The remainder of the Stainforth, cell is enclosed by relatively high ground or man-made features. The Hatfield South Western side of the FMU is formed by higher ground, which passes through the centre of Stainforth and the northern edge of Hatfield. It has been assumed for the purpose of this study that the M18 forms the eastern edge although in reality flood flows may pass through various drainage structures constructed under the motorway into FMU 2. 5 The River Don forms the north and west edges of FMU 5. All remaining Edenthorp, Kirk areas are contained by surrounding higher ground in the Edenthorpe, Sandall Wheatley and Kirk Sandall areas. The downstream limit of the FMU is assumed to be near an area of high ground adjacent to Stainforth. In reality some connectivity exists with FMU 4 in the South Bramwith area.

Flooding within the Lower Don catchment can be caused by two main reasons (i) flood waters overtopping a flood defence embankment; or (ii) failure of the embankment. Both events would result in a flow path from the river into surrounding low-lying areas.

The existing flood defences are becoming increasingly old and consequently it is anticipated that some may have little residual life remaining. The risk of embankment failure is therefore reaching an unacceptable level.

Section 1: Introduction 3 A condition assessment for the 132 km of defences in the Lower Don was undertaken. Many sections of the existing defences are raised earthen embankments, which vary between 2 and 6m in height depending on their location. In numerous areas the river channel edges have been protected with stone to prevent scouring. Sheet pilling has been used in some localised areas. The existing defences vary considerably in age and some have a limited residual life. 52% of the total length of embankment examined (not all defences were assessed due to time and money constraints) was estimated as having a very high likelihood of failure.

An indicative assessment of the overall risk of flooding for the Lower Don has also been carried out using a strategic risk assessment tool developed as part of the strategy study. The strategic risk assessment is based on three risk parameters (time remaining before risk of breach becomes unacceptable, standard of protection against overtopping and consequences of flooding due to breach and/or overtopping), and assigns a risk of flooding rating to each defence reach within the FMUs.

The estimated standards of protection from overtopping in the Lower Don are illustrated in Table 1.2.

Table 1.2: Estimated standard of protection against overtopping Water course Estimated standard of defence against overtopping Lower Don – Left Bank 1 in 50 years Lower Don – Right Bank 1 in 100 years Dutch River – Left Bank 1 in 100 years Dutch River – Right Bank 1 in 50 years Ea Beck – Left Bank 1 in 50 years Ea Beck – Right Bank 1 in 50 years River Went – Left Bank 1 in 50 years River Went – Right Bank 1 in 50 years River Aire – Right Bank 1 in 100 years River Ouse – Right Bank 1 in 100 years River Humber – Right Bank 1 in 100 years River Trent – Right Bank 1 in 50 years

In addition to the flood embankments, there are eight flood warning areas in the Lower Don catchment. Both the River Don at Doncaster and the River Don at Bentley flood warning areas are categorised as ‘Severe Flood Warning‘ areas meaning more than 100 properties are at risk from flooding.

4 Section 1: Introduction 1.3 The policy framework

The Lower Don strategy study has links to many other strategic documents and plans. It follows from the Lower Don preliminary strategic report (PSR), it is associated and linked with the Upper Don strategy plan and has been running in parallel with the Lower Don strategic environmental assessment (SEA).

The Lower Don strategy study sits within the large scale catchment plans, therefore will also have major links with the forthcoming catchment flood management plan for the River Don. This will provide a large scale strategic planning framework for the integrated management of flood risk to people and the developed and natural environment in a sustainable manner.

1.4 List of stakeholders and interested parties

At the present stage of the Lower Don strategy study there is no indication that consultation has been undertaken, other than reference to the fact that stakeholders may or may not oppose the selection of the options. Moreover, no reference is made to a communication plan for future consultation.

Section 1: Introduction 5 2. Definition of objectives and management options

According to Atkins (2004), the primary aim of the Lower Don strategy study is to develop cost effective and sustainable strategic flood risk management policies and measures for the Lower Don catchment which seek to enhance the environment and compliment the needs of others where possible.

2.1 Strategic objectives

In addition to the main aim, a suite of strategic objectives was developed to enable the viability of a number of preliminary flood defence options and preferred flood defence policies and measures to be appraised. These strategic objectives have been developed using guidance provided in the flood and coastal defence project appraisal guidance (FCDPAG) 2 and in the Environment Agency’s environmental impact assessment resource and receptors checklist. The strategic objectives have been supported further by a variety of sub-objectives and are presented in Table 2.1, below.

Table 2.1 Lower Don strategic appraisal objectives and sub-objectives Strategic objectives Sub-objectives

1 Reduce the risk of flooding to • improve defence standards where appropriate; people, property and the • reduce the risk of embankment breach to an environment taking account acceptable level; of social acceptability. • improve flood warning services where appropriate; • control development in the flood plain; and • enhance flood storage where appropriate.

2 Ensure options are • ensure preferred generic options, policies and technically feasible in terms measures reduce flood risk within the catchment of reducing the flood risk. where appropriate.

3 Ensure options are • ensure preferred policies and measures for flood risk economically feasible. management are economically feasible by undertaking an initial economic appraisal.

4 Consider stakeholder • ensure early feedback from statutory consultees is acceptability of flood risk considered during the option appraisal process; management generic options, • evaluate likely stakeholder feedback to generic policies and measures. options, policies and measures.

5 Improve the quality of life in • improve access and amenities for informal terms of amenity, recreation recreation; and access. • create opportunities for informal recreation.

6 Protect and enhance • ensure compatibility with nature conservation biodiversity. objectives at designated sites; • improve area, quality and distribution of BAP habitats; • improve numbers and distribution of BAP species; • restore natural river and floodplain habitats; • improve fisheries and reduce obstructions to fish movements.

7 Protect and enhance water, • maintain and improve quality standards; air and land quality. • reduce contamination and the release of dangerous

6 Section 2: Definition of objectives and management options Table 2.1 Lower Don strategic appraisal objectives and sub-objectives Strategic objectives Sub-objectives substances.

8 Protect and enhance • consider landscape character objectives; landscape character/visual • enhance quality of landscape character; amenity. • provide flood defences in keeping with their environs.

9 Balance the needs of water • ensure compatibility with Don and Rother Catchment users and improve river Abstraction Management Strategy (CAMS); catchment management • encourage uptake of Sustainable Urban Drainage (SUDS); • influence rural land management to reduce run-off; • improve aquifer recharge.

10 Achieve balanced approach • adopt and expand principles of South Yorkshire and to all land uses and North East Derbyshire Local Environment Agency regeneration. Plan (LEAPS); • ensure that local businesses, rural economies and livelihoods remain viable; • avoid segregation of communities/social groups; • retain social fabric.

11 Protect and enhance features • improve knowledge of sites/ features and their of archaeological and relevance; heritage interest. • prevent damage due to flood defence work.

12 Ensure compatibility with • maintain strategic communication and service links; transport and other • identify navigation opportunities; infrastructure • consider impacts of future operations to avoid constrains.

13 Promote the principles of • facilitate sustainable land use; sustainable development. • incorporate climate change effects; • promote natural flood plain functions; • facilitate sustainable use of materials.

2.2 Strategic options

Table 2.2 illustrates the generic flood defence options that were considered in the Lower Don Strategy Study. These options were then assessed against the strategic objectives defined above (no indication of the standards of defence provided was supplied in Appraisal Draft Report: Atkins, 2004).

Table 2.2 Summary of the generic options being considered in the Lower Don strategy study. Options Description Assumes that no further expenditure is spent on the repair and maintenance of the flood defences. This option is considered to be unacceptable. Large- scale inundation would result following a permanent breach in the defences ‘Do-nothing’ and this would result in abandonment and write-off of large areas of residential, commercial and agricultural assets, and in environmental pollution. However, the River would be allowed to flow more naturally. In addition, this option has overriding stakeholder opposition. Would involve continuing the current reactive maintenance regime for the Do minimum flood defence assets. However, proactive asset replacement of flood

Section 2: Definition of objectives and management options 7 Table 2.2 Summary of the generic options being considered in the Lower Don strategy study. Options Description defence assets would not be carried out, which would result in embankment breaching. This option enables flood risk management based on limited resources, but the risk of breaching will become unacceptable, and the need for reactive works will increase with time as the likelihood of breaching increases. Significant flooding will occur whilst breach is repaired potentially resulting in the loss of life, environmental pollution and substantial economic losses. This option has overriding stakeholder opposition. The aim is to provide areas adjacent to the Lower Don and its neighbouring watercourses with accurate and effective flood warnings to reduce the impact of flooding on local people and property. This is achieved by issuing a four stage flooding warning consisting of ‘All Clear’, ‘Flood Watch’, ‘Flood Warning’ and ‘Severe Flood Warning’ depending on predicted catchment flood conditions. A number of flood warning zones are currently in operation within the Lower Don catchment. Flood warning or contingency planning for the Lower Don by itself would not be sufficient. This is because flooding is Flood warning most likely to be caused by breach failure. They would work in conjunction with flood defence capital intervention in areas consisting of isolated properties, which are insufficiently protected by current defence measures. This option does not significantly reduce the scale of economic losses arising from a major flood (only slightly less damages in relation to do minimum). However, it would improve public awareness of flooding issues within the catchment and it would lead to some reduction in flood damages since people are able to prepare. Includes refurbishing the existing defences on their current alignment and/or raising the flood defences for anticipated climate change scenarios or to increase the standard of protection provided. This option implicates likely increase in downstream water levels, which may reduce the standard of Defend on- protection and/or significant land-take to accommodate the predicted line/raise increase in defence level for flood defence embankments. In addition, it may defences potentially constrain working areas due to close proximity between flood defence and urban areas and there are no conservation or biodiversity benefits directly associated with this option. However, this option minimises the land take adjacent to the river, maximises protection to full FMUs and the public is likely to accept this option. Involves relocating flood defences away from the edge of the river channel. It provides opportunities to attenuating flood flows and hence reduce the risk of flooding to urban areas. There are also significant environmental benefits including the creation of new habitats as well as allowing the river to flow Managed more naturally and hence encouraging habitat diversification. However, the realignment public will oppose this option due to potential large agricultural and some isolated residential land take. This option may implicate large initial project costs due to land purchase and construction of realigned defences, but potential for reducing Agency flood defence expenditure in the long term. May involve the creation of new washland areas and/or increasing the size of existing flood storage sites to increase the standard of protection against flooding. Other measures may include: (i) washland creation; (ii) in-channel Increased flood storage (IDBs); (iii) sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS); and (iv) storage managed land-use techniques i.e. ploughing of fields. Significant capacity environmental opportunities are likely to result from this option as well as, it will allow the river to operate more naturally by frequent inundation of the storage/wetland and encouraging habitat diversification. Improve May be achieved by dredging the river bed and raising and modifying channel obstructions, such as bridge structures. Other options include: (i) installation

8 Section 2: Definition of objectives and management options Table 2.2 Summary of the generic options being considered in the Lower Don strategy study. Options Description conveyance of flood relief channels; (ii) removal of other in-channel obstructions; and (iii) flow diversion via bypass channels and installation of bypass culverts. The positive impacts of these options are the optimisation of channel flood flows at known constraint points. However, the material removed from the channel will have to be disposed off-site and this could be contaminated with heavy metals and other contaminants, and there may be significant loss of heritage value due to improvements in channel conveyance at Stainforth Bridge, which may be unacceptable to stakeholders. May involve changes in the control structures operating rules. The main control structures are the closing gates situated at the bottom of the River Went and Ea Beck, and they operate under the action of the tide or high Management of fluvial flows. Positive impacts of this option include the fact that the River flood control Went and Ea Beck will operate as flood storage channels during high tides. structures Negative impacts include the fact that maintenance is likely to be complex, there are health and safety concerns associated with operation and maintenance of structures and the gates are susceptible to vandalism.

Section 2: Definition of objectives and management options 9 3. Structuring the problem

This section intends to break down the problem into its component parts, identifying the set of impacts and associated criteria that will be used to make the decision. There was not enough background information to be able to complete an AST for high level screening (AST-FMDC-S) for the Lower Don strategy study. It was possible, however, to link the assessment criteria used in the original assessment with the assessment criteria used for the MCA-based approach, and in this way organise the flood problem.

The approach used in the strategy study for the Lower Don has some similarities with the approach used in the MCA-based methodology. The original appraisal for the Lower Don strategy uses the strategic objectives as the assessment criteria and these are fairly similar to the impact types and categories used in the MCA-based approach. In addition, the original appraisal uses a scoring approach to select a preferred strategic option.

Given the similarities, an attempt was made to use as much of the available information and transform it to use it in the MCA-based approach.

In order to start fitting the existing information into the MCA-based process it is necessary to link each of the strategic objectives and sub-objectives to one of the impact categories used in the assessment summary Table. Table 3.1, overleaf, illustrates these links. Some of the strategic objectives included sub- objectives that corresponded to different impact categories. For this reason the sub-objectives were separated out to be distributed among the impact categories.

For the impact categories ‘assets’, ‘land use’ and ‘availability and accessibility of services’ no suitable link/similarity was found with any of the objectives and/sub- objectives. From the information available it is reasonable to conclude that the different options will not have an impact on the availability and accessibility to services. In what concerns the impact on assets and land use these will most certainly occur and on the original strategy study they are covered under the economic appraisal.

For the remaining impact categories there are corresponding objectives and sub-objectives. These can be considered to be the intangible impacts of the appraisal, i.e. those that cannot be assessed in monetary terms.

10 Section 3: Structuring the problem Table 3.1: Links between the Lower Don strategic objectives and the MCA impact categories MCA impact categories Strategic objectives and sub-objectives Assets Includes flood damages and/or losses relating to private and public property such as residential, industrial and/or commercial property, caravan parks, public sewage and water supply networks, pipelines, etc. Land use Includes flood damages to land used for agricultural, industrial, urban, forestry, commercial fisheries purposes.

Transport Includes impacts to roads, Ensure • maintain strategic bridges, railways and compatibility communication and navigation. with transport service links; and other • identify navigation infrastructure opportunities; • consider impacts of future operations to avoid constrains.

Business Includes Achieve • ensure that local development regeneration/development balanced businesses, rural and competitiveness. approach to all economies and Regeneration includes land uses and livelihoods remain viable. impacts on the creation of regeneration. sustainable communities, i.e. economic development and development or maintenance of social cohesion. Competitiveness includes impacts to businesses (their costs, investment, market structure, etc.).

Physical Includes impacts to terrestrial, Protect and • ensure compatibility with habitats aquatic and marine habitats enhance nature conservation and biodiversity, its biodiversity objectives at designated conservation designations, sites; and its flora and fauna. • improve area, quality and distribution of BAP habitats; • improve numbers and distribution of BAP species; • restore natural river and floodplain habitats; • improve fisheries and reduce obstructions to fish movements.

Water Includes impacts on biological Protect and • maintain and improve quality and chemical quality of enhance water, quality standards surface and groundwater air and land • reduce contamination water. quality. and the release of

Section 3: Structuring the problem 11 Table 3.1: Links between the Lower Don strategic objectives and the MCA impact categories MCA impact categories Strategic objectives and sub-objectives dangerous substances.

Water Includes impacts on the water Balance the • ensure compatibility with quantity levels and water supplies needs of water Don and Rother (such as drainage and run- users and Catchment Abstraction off). improve river Management Strategy catchment (CAMS); management • encourage uptake of Sustainable Urban Drainage (SUDS); • influence rural land management to reduce run-off; • improve aquifer recharge.

Historic Includes impacts on heritage, Protect and • improve knowledge of environment archaeological and geological enhance sites/ features and their features. features of relevance; archaeological • prevent damage due to and heritage flood defence work. interest.

Landscape Includes impacts on the Protect and • consider landscape and visual appearance of the land (its enhance character objectives; amenity shape, colour, and particular landscape • enhance quality of features), its landscape character/visual landscape character; designations as well as its amenity. • provide flood defences in agreeable nature. keeping with their environs.

Natural Includes impacts on flow Promote the • promote natural flood Processes dynamics, sediment transport, principles of plain functions. geomorphology, etc. sustainable development

Recreation Includes impacts on the Improve the • improve access and processes or means of quality of life in amenities for informal entertainment. It includes terms of recreation; angling, informal recreation amenity, • create opportunities for (walking, sunbathing, recreation and informal recreation. picnicking, sitting, swimming, access. etc.) and formal recreation (sports and other activities that require specific equipment).

Health and Includes impacts such as risk Ensure options • ensure preferred generic safety to life or serious injury, stress are technically options, policies and and anxiety (mental health feasible in measures reduce flood and livelihood) and other terms of risk within the catchment health effects, such as those reducing the where appropriate. created during the flood risk. construction phase of the project (noise and air pollution, for example).

12 Section 3: Structuring the problem Table 3.1: Links between the Lower Don strategic objectives and the MCA impact categories MCA impact categories Strategic objectives and sub-objectives Availability Includes impacts on and availability and accessibility to accessibility public services such as of services education, housing, emergency and cleaning services, health, cultural facilities and other.

Equity Includes distribution impacts Achieve • avoid segregation of (consideration of interest of all balanced communities/social groups of stakeholders), approach to all groups; impacts on vulnerable groups land uses and (such as the elderly, children, regeneration. etc.) and social tensions (rise of serious divisions and conflicts within the community).

Sense of Includes impacts on the local Achieve • retain social fabric. community community, level of balanced satisfaction with approach to all neighbourhood, social land uses and networks and community regeneration. expectations.

Policy Includes impacts on pre- Achieve • adopt and expand integration existing policies and balanced principles of South programmes, such as approach to all Yorkshire and North East planning and environmental land uses and Derbyshire Local policies, at all levels. regeneration. Environment Agency Plan.

Promote the • facilitate sustainable land principles of use; sustainable • incorporate climate development. change effects; • facilitate sustainable use of materials.

Ensure options • ensure preferred policies are and measures for flood economically risk management are feasible. economically feasible by undertaking an initial economic appraisal.

Consider • ensure early feedback stakeholder from statutory consultees acceptability of is considered during the flood risk option appraisal process; management • evaluate likely generic stakeholder feedback to options, generic options, policies policies and and measures. measures.

Section 3: Structuring the problem 13 Table 3.1: Links between the Lower Don strategic objectives and the MCA impact categories MCA impact categories Strategic objectives and sub-objectives

Reduce the risk • improve defence of flooding to standards where people, appropriate; property and • reduce the risk of the embankment breach to environment an acceptable level; taking account • improve flood warning of social services where acceptability. appropriate; • control development in the flood plain; and • enhance flood storage where appropriate.

14 Section 3: Structuring the problem 4. Assessment of impacts

A substantial part of the Lower Don catchment and adjoining areas contain relatively low-lying land with very little topographic variation. There is a very significant risk of flooding within these areas situated within watercourses. The available benefits must therefore be shared between the adjoining watercourses to avoid overestimation through double counting.

4.1 Monetary valuation of impacts

All of the following information was obtained from the Lower Don strategy study draft report (Atkins, 2004).

An indicative benefit-cost ratio has been calculated for each of the FMUs to determine whether future flood defence investment is worthwhile. This calculation was based on maximum available benefits, assuming asset write- off, and the total present value flood defence costs anticipated across the life of the strategy.

The Lower Don draft report states that the monetary assessment of impacts is an initial assessment and it is recognised that a more detailed economic appraisal will be carried out during the next project stages. Consideration will need to be given to some complex issues including defining flood inundation areas and associated flooding depths for different flooding scenarios. In addition, further hydraulic modelling and breach risk information will be required to enable a comprehensive appraisal to take place.

4.1.1 Write-off benefits

Write-off values of residential, industrial and agricultural assets were assessed during the appraisal of benefits. It has been assumed that a breach occurs in the first year of the strategy period and the flood management unit is completely inundated. This will result in abandonment of the flood management unit and all assets are consequently written-off.

Assets

Write-off values for residential properties were estimated using address point data examined using Map info software to determine the number of properties per post-code area within each flood management area. The average house price for each postcode was retrieved from the Land Registry website. A summary of the number of properties and overall property value per FMU is given in Table 4.1.

Section 4: Assessment of impacts 15 Table 4.1 Number of properties and write-off values for each FMU for the ‘Do-nothing’ option Overall residential properties FMU Total number of properties value 1 9,743 £1,085,409,172 2 10,630 £1,332,261,824 3 795 £68,328,231 4 1,935 £152,467,126 5 1,312 £108,753,400

The number of industrial and commercial properties, i.e. Non Residential Properties (NRP), was estimated by manually checking the address point data and identifying addresses containing a reference to industrial and commercial organisations. Commercial properties such as banks and public houses were included in the analysis for residential properties.

Write-off values for NRPs were assessed using a realistic flooding time series and utilising the depth damage dataset for logistical warehouse premises contained in the Multi-Coloured Manual. An undiscounted damage value of £1,209 per m2 was estimated. Table 4.2 illustrates the numbers and write-off value of NRPs identified for each FMU.

Table 4.2 Number of NRP and write-off values for each FMU for the ‘Do-nothing’ option

FMU Number of NRPs Overall NRP Value

1 22 £347,150,000

2 1 £251,931,000

3 0 -

4 0 -

5 26 £1,358,938,000

The write-off value for Keadby power station represents a significant proportion of the overall damages and has therefore been included in FMU 2.

Land use

A large proportion of the FMUs consist of varying grades of agricultural land that were classified in grades 1 to 5 and ungraded. In order to calculate the write-off value of agricultural land the guidance presented in the multicoloured manual was used. The valuation loss of 45% is applied to the prevailing agricultural land market prices arising as a result of permanent flood defence breach. Table 4.3 illustrates the write-off value of agricultural land for each FMU.

16 Section 4: Assessment of impacts Table 4.3 Overall agricultural write-off values for each FMU for the Do Nothing option

FMU Overall Agricultural Value

1 £15,866,000

2 £89,829,000

3 £14,194,000

4 £2,047,000

5 £1,476,000

Transport

Write-off of transportation assets (e.g. the M62 motorway) has not been included since the data is not readily available. However, this should not have a significant impact on the calculations because they are much smaller than the damages relative with the remaining assets.

4.1.2 Comments on the economic assessment

The information provided here for the economic assessment of impacts constitutes a wide summary of the information provided in the Lower Don strategy study draft report.

The economic assessment developed in the strategy study does not follow the guidance provided by Government on economic appraisal for flood and coastal defence. It represents a very high level assessment of the strategy and does not contain enough detailed information to allow for the MCA-based economic assessment of the case study.

Although it is not mentioned anywhere in the report, it seems that the practitioners decided to carry out the economic assessment only to the preferred option. The preferred option seems to fall from the scoring exercise undertaken previously. However, there is no explicit indication of which option is the preferred one (from the eight options being appraised). Also, the generic assessment of the impacts of options on the strategic objectives takes into consideration the whole of the Lower Don study area, whilst a preferred strategic solution is selected for each of the FMUs.

During the development of the case study it became apparent that it would be impossible to carry out a guidance driven economic assessment of the different options being appraised. For this reason, it was decided that this case study should not be continued.

Section 4: Assessment of impacts 17 4.2 Scoring of impacts

As stated in the previous Section, the Lower Don strategy study uses a scoring approach to assess each of the proposed options in relation to each of the strategic objectives and sub-objectives. This exercise is carried out prior to the economic assessment.

The strategy study developed a matrix approach in order to carry out a preliminary assessment. The matrix identifies the main impacts of the options and estimates the magnitude of both positive and negative impacts. The approach was chosen in order to ensure that each of the options has been assessed in a similar manner to provide a consistent approach. The scoring system employed uses positive and negative symbols to translate the magnitude of the effect of the option on the objective. The key to the scoring system used in the Lower Don strategy study is illustrated in Table 4.4. No further information is provided in the draft report (Atkins, 2004) about the underlying principles of the scoring exercise.

Table 4.4: Key to the scoring system used in the Lower Don strategy study Impact significance Original approach Major negative --- Moderate negative -- Minor negative - Negligible impact -/+ Minor positive + Moderate positive ++ Major positive +++

There are several issues that arise with the implementation of such a scoring system.

This scoring system is very similar to the ‘Likert Scale’ system, one of the systems initially tried out on the Kelling Hard to Lowestoft SMP case study. Its main advantage in relation to other scoring systems is that it avoids the need to find numeric basis for assigning the scores. At a very high level appraisal (using ballpark information) this system may be useful in a preliminary analysis.

However, this type of scoring system has several significant disadvantages: • because it is based on qualitative statements it increases the level of subjectivity of the scores. It is almost impossible to ensure that the definitions/key is being used in the same way for all impact categories. For example, ‘major positive’ always relates to the same level of additional benefit from one strategic objective to the next; • it makes it difficult to maintain the transparency and auditability of the assessment as there is often no recordable basis for assigning one definition over another. In the Lower Don strategy study this is particularly

18 Section 4: Assessment of impacts true since no justification is given to the assigned scores in the matrix or anywhere else in the main report; and • it makes it difficult to respect the proportionality between the different options. For example, when major positive impact is recorded for two different options, it is assumed that these two impacts have the same magnitude, when often this is not the case. Although both options have major positive impacts, one may have a bigger major positive impact than the other and this fact is not respected by this type of scoring system.

Nevertheless, in order to continue the assessment, an attempt was made to transform the original scoring method into the scoring system being tested under the MCA-based methodology. The scoring system selected for this case study was the ‘relative to 100’ approach, for practical reasons. This transformation is presented in Table 4.5. It is important to note that the results from this scoring exercise should not be taken as absolute since they are based on a scoring system that is subjective and does not respect proportionality. In addition, the justification for the scores in the original assessment was not provided.

Table 4.5: Key to the scoring system used in the Lower Don strategy study Impact significance Original approach MCA approach Major negative --- 0 Moderate negative -- 25 Minor negative - 40 Negligible impact -/+ 50 Minor positive + 60 Moderate positive ++ 75 Major positive +++ 100

The major positive and major negative impact categories score of 100 and 0, respectively. To the negligible impact definition a score of 50 was assigned, since it represents the middle of the scale.

The difference between moving from a negligible impact to a minor (positive or negative) and from a negligible impact to a moderate (positive or negative) is not a proportional one. It was considered that there is a bigger ‘jump’ between the negligible and moderate than between negligible and minor. For this reason:

• for the moderate positive impact significance a score of 75 was assigned;

• for the minor positive impact significance a score of 60 was assigned;

• for the minor negative impact significance a score of 40 was assigned; and

• for the moderate negative impact significance a score of 25 was assigned.

There were some strategic objectives for which none of the options scored the highest possible score. In these cases the option that scored the most was considered to be 100 and for the remaining options the scores were adjusted relative to this one. So for example, for the transport related objective, the

Section 4: Assessment of impacts 19 highest scoring options were option 5 and 6 (both with ‘moderate positive’). This means that in normal circumstances it would score 75, however this 75 was adjusted to 100 to reflect the fact that these were the highest scoring options. Options 4, 7 and 8 all scored ‘minor positive’ (or 60), which is 15 points different from ‘moderate positive’ (75), therefore these options were scored 85, and so on.

In addition, several strategic objectives and sub-objectives fell in to the policy integration impact category. In this case, each objective was considered as an impact sub-category with equal weight, which was scored. Once all the impact sub-categories had been scored, the scores were added up and adjusted so that the highest scoring option would score 100 and the others would score proportionally in relation to the best one.

The scoring classification given to the objective was assumed to be attributable to the sub-objectives.

20 Section 4: Assessment of impacts 5. Conclusions

One of the main aims of applying the MCA-based approach to the Lower Don strategy study was to test the methodology on a riverine high-level project. The idea was to examine whether the impact types and categories that constitute the ASTs were as suitable for river projects as they are for coastal projects as well as whether the scoring approach was as practicable to apply.

Although it was not possible to continue with this case study, it is believed that it achieved its purpose.

It is obvious from the information presented above that the impact types and categories are suitable to river projects. The decision criteria used in the original appraisal for the Lower Don (the strategic objectives) were based on the same sources of information as the impact categories used in the MCA-based approach and therefore were very easy to include in the assessment summary tables. The case study also shows that, although river and coastal projects may have significantly different natures, they can both be assessed using the flood management and coastal defence ASTs. The differences between these two types of projects will be reflected by the impact categories that will be relevant for the assessment. For example, water quantity is an impact category that is not usually relevant for a coastal problem, however it is fundamental for a river project.

Although it was not possible to apply the MCA-based scoring system (ChaRT) to this case, a rough reasoning over the case study shows that if the information usually collected for this type of project were available it would enable the implementation of the ChaRT system.

Section 5: Conclusions 21 6. References

Atkins (2004): Lower Don strategy study - draft report, report produced for the Environment Agency North East Region, March 2004.

FCDPAG 2. Flood and Coastal Defence Appraisal Guidance – Strategic Planning and Appraisal, London HMSO

22 Section 6: References Joint Defra/EA Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management R&D Programme

Annex B.7:

Case study no.7:

Assessment of the Newbiggin-by-the-Sea coast protection strategy

R&D Project Record FD2013/PR2

Dissemination Status Internal: Released internally External: Released to public domain

Keywords: Multi criteria analysis, MCA, appraisal summary table, AST, decision rule

Acknowledgements The assistance of those providing information for the case studies is gratefully acknowledged.

Defra project manager: Matt Crossman, Defra, 3D Ergon House, Horseferry Rd, London, SW1P 2AL. Email: [email protected]

Publishing organisation Defra Flood Management Division Ergon House Horseferry Road London SW1P 2AL Tel: 020 7238 3000 Fax: 020 7238 6187 www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd

Published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Printed in the UK, March 2005 on recycled material containing 80% post-consumer waste and 20% totally chlorine free virgin pulp.

PB No. 10734/PR2 ISBN 0-85521-146-6

ii 1. Introduction

This report presents the MCA-based project appraisal process for the Newbiggin-by-the-Sea Coast Protection Strategy. This strategy assessment was based on the original appraisal process carried out for Wansbeck District Council in December 2003, which short-listed a number of defence options for Newbiggin Bay.

The information reported here is based on the following documents:

• Newbiggin Bay Coast Defence Strategy: Project Appraisal Report (Atkins, 2003a); and • Newbiggin Seaside Strategy Draft Final Report (Atkins, 2003b).

1.1 Summary of the project area

Newbiggin-by-the-Sea is situated on the Northumberland coastline within Wansbeck District Council’s (WDC) boundary. The village faces Newbiggin Bay, which is predominantly south-east facing and bounded by two rocky headlands, Church Point (north) and Spital Carrs (south). Main features at this frontage are a narrow sandy beach, the Southwest Promenade on the south side of the frontage and the Bridge Street sea wall. The entire bay is at risk from erosion, and part of the village is a flood risk zone.

Newbiggin lies within the Northumberland Shore SSSI, the Northumberland Coast Special Protection Area (SPA), and is recognised as a Ramsar site. Newbiggin is also part of the North Northumberland Heritage Coast designation.

There are two main environmental issues relating to the protection of Newbiggin bay:

• the effect of any proposed works on the intertidal bird feeding area in the north of the bay; and • the covering of the geological SSSI in the south of the bay with sediment.

1.2 Existing defences

Historically Newbiggin beach was a recreational attraction due to the wide sandy beach. However, since the 1920s the beach has eroded, and this has necessitated sea walls to be constructed around the bay to provide protection from erosion and inundation. However, the beach has continued to erode and a significant quantity of beach material has been lost from the central areas of the bay. Monitoring has established an erosion rate of 0.2m/yr of the sand and clay levels in the centre of the bay.

Section 1: Introduction 1 The area surrounding Newbiggin has been extensively mined (both on land and offshore). This has been suggested as the cause of the subsidence in the area. Since the 1960s the bed of the bay has subsided 1-2m, leading to the redistribution of sediment throughout the bay (Atkins, 1996; 1998). Wave propagation into the bay has been altered by the subsidence, with an increase in wave height of approximately 10-15% in the last twenty years (UKCIP02). Waves approaching Newbiggin are typically from the North East, and extreme off-shore wave heights can exceed 8m. The impact of these waves maintains the erosive influence in the bay.

Newbiggin is currently protected by a variety of coastal defences. The northern part of the bay is protected by the Bridge Street stepped concrete sea wall, constructed in 1984. This provides protection against flooding and from erosive processes. The standard of protection offered is greater than 1 in 200 against overtopping. However, if there is a continued removal process of beach material, the base of the structure will be undermined. An estimate of the remaining life of the seawall has been given as 5 years (WDC).

The Southwest Promenade rock revetment was built in 1992; however, it is poor condition due to storm damage. Presently existing revetment stones can be displaced by storms with a 1 in 1 year return period. The standard of protection against complete collapse of the wall is in excess of 1 in 20 years. Nevertheless, continued erosion will reduce this standard to 1 in 10.

In terms of flooding, currently overtopping of the Southwest Promenade does not cause flooding. It is estimated that a 1 in 10 year storm will cause structural damage behind the revetment. However, if beach levels are allowed to continue to reduce, in five years this will decrease to a 1 in 1 year storm event.

1.3 The policy framework

The St. Abb’s Head to the River Tyne Shoreline Management Plan, is the policy document that covers this stretch of coastline. The preferred policy option identified in the SMP for the area is to hold the line.

Other policies with relevance for this case study include (Atkins, 2003b):

• on the planning policy context, the Regional Planning Guidance for the North East, the Northumberland Structure Plan and the Wansbeck Local Plan; and • on the regeneration context, the Regional Economic Strategy, the Northumberland Strategic Partnership Strategy and Action Plan, the South East Northumberland and North Tyneside Regeneration Initiative, the Framework for Tourism Development and the Wansbeck District Council Tourism Strategy.

2 Section 1: Introduction 1.4 Stakeholders and interested parties

Consultation was undertaken by the consultants with statutory and non- statutory consultees throughout the project, with particular emphasis given to consultation with the general public and affected bay users. The consultation with stakeholders was carried out through meetings and letters with all interested parties. In addition, a public exhibition was also undertaken in October 2003.

According to the Draft PAR (Atkins, 2003), all of the concerns and comments were addressed in the Environmental Scoping Report.

Due to time restrictions, it was not possible for RPA to consult the consultation files for this particular case study.

Section 1: Introduction 3 2. Definition of objectives and management options

The Newbiggin-by-the-Sea coast defence strategy states that:

“the key objective is to provide sustainable coast protection to the town of Newbiggin by the Sea that is technically robust, environmentally acceptable and economically justified”.

The appraisal of strategic options has to take into account the policy options selected by the Shoreline Management Plans. In undertaking any construction works WDC will seek to “minimise adverse environmental effects and ensure opportunities are realised to further the conservation and enhancement of the environment as is consistent with statutory purposes” (Atkins, 2003a).

The selection of options was undertaken in two stages, involving an initial option appraisal, followed by the selection of the preferred option.

For the initial options appraisal an Options Report (Atkins, 2002, in Atkins 2003a) was produced which assessed a total of ten different schemes. Options were appraised through evaluation of technical, economic and environmental impacts. Consequently, four options were short-listed and the detailed appraisal stage was then undertaken. For this second stage, numerical and physical modelling was carried out to assess the technical performance of the options.

Table 2.1 illustrates the final four options taken forward for further appraisal in addition to the ‘do-nothing’ option, which will serve as the baseline for the appraisal.

Table 2.1 Description of short listed options Option Description Comments

‘Do-nothing’ • once current defence fails, no • beach levels will continue to fall, action will be undertaken to with the clay levels against the remedy this situation, or to piles at Bridge Street likely to carry out any emergency fall below critical levels in works to save life or property. approximately 5 years; • permanent flooding of low lying areas of Newbiggin; • damage to rock revetment along the promenade will increase as beach levels decrease; • following breach of sea wall and collapse of the Southwest Promenade, the town of Newbiggin will be unprotected from erosion from the sea and flooding will occur in the northern part of the town.

Remedial Works • refurbishment of the Southwest • as beach levels lower in the Promenade with new rock centre of the bay, the Bridge

4 Section 2: Definition of objectives and management options Table 2.1 Description of short listed options Option Description Comments armour extended down to Street wall would become more rockhead level - 2005 exposed to waves, limiting the • slope stability works along the life of the wall and requiring a Southwest Promenade replacement in 30 years time comprising soil nailing of the • the Southwest Promenade slope - 2005 would have a design life of 60 • scour protection to the Bridge years Street sea wall (200m) – 2005 • continued erosion of the beach • future scour protection to the would result in the loss of Bridge Street sea wall (200m) recreational use of the beach – 2010 • the effect of coastal squeeze • replacement of the Bridge would result in the loss of Street sea wall (400m) – 2030 intertidal habitats • refurbishment of the Church Point walls (180m) - 2030

Beach restoration • restoration of the beach using • beach nourishment would and fishtail groyne beach nourishment derived provide protection against from dredging continued erosion • construction of a control • without the construction of a structure to keep in place the groyne, the imported sand imported sand material. A would be lost off-shore and shore linked groyne or ‘fishtail’ alongshore groyne would be the preferred structure

Beach restoration This option is similar to the • beach nourishment would and breakwater previous option however, it uses: provide protection against • a detached off-shore continued erosion breakwater as the control • without the construction of a structure breakwater the imported sand would be lost off-shore and alongshore

Beach restoration • creation of harbour covering • this option would provide a and small northern half of the bay, and beach sheltered area to moor boats harbour nourishment on the other half • the southern Harbour arm would include an access roadway and would be set at a high level to prevent movement of sand to the north of the bay

For the purpose of this report, the following four options were considered in the appraisal:

• Option 1 - ‘Do-nothing’; • Option 2 - Do minimum ‘remedial works’ option; • Option 3 - Improve ‘beach restoration and Fishtail Groyne’ option; and • Option 4 - Improve plus ‘beach restoration and breakwater’ option.

The main objective of the options is to minimise erosion. The onset of erosion under each option is expected to be:

Section 2: Definition of objectives and management options 5 • Option 1: erosion generally begins in year 1 (for some categories the onset of erosion is later than year 1, due to the location of particular characteristics as given in Table 5.1); • Option 2: erosion is delayed until year 30, whereupon the option reverts to do-nothing; • Option 3: erosion is delayed until year 100; and • Option 4: erosion is delayed until year 100.

6 Section 2: Definition of objectives and management options 3. Structuring the problem

3.1 Summary of the screening exercise

The screening exercise was based on the information provided in the PAR for the Newbiggin-by-the-Sea coast protection strategy. The results of the screening exercise are shown in Table 3.1. A more detailed screening is presented in Appendix A7.1.

Table 3.1 Table summarising the results in the screening exercise Newbiggin-by-the-Sea coast protection Project name strategy Approach used Category Monetary value Score Economic impacts Assets 9 Land use 9 Transport Not relevant Business development 9 Environmental impacts Physical habitats 9 Water quality Not relevant Water quantity Natural processes 9 Historical environment 9 Landscape and visual amenity 9 Social impacts Recreation 9 Health and safety 9 Availability and accessibility of services Not relevant Equity Not relevant Sense of community 9 Cross-cutting impacts Policy integration 9

Section 3: Structuring the problem 7 As it can be seen from Table 3.1, the only impact category being valued in monetary terms is ‘Assets’. All other categories will be assessed using the ChaRT scoring system, devised for erosion (see Section 5).

8 Section 3: Structuring the problem 4. Costs of options

The economic assessment of the options to protect Newbiggin-by-the-Sea was undertaken in accordance with the Flood and coastal defence project appraisal guidance (FCDPAG) series, in particular FCDPAG3.

The scheme development costs have been worked out in terms of whole life scheme costing. The construction and maintenance costs have been assessed on the basis of a 100-year design life. An optimism bias of 30% has been applied to all scheme costs to provide a risk contingency.

Table 4.1 summarises all costs for the options being considered. The costs reported by Atkins (2003a) in their draft report seem to suffer from some inaccuracies, in particular since the estimates gave the impression that the ‘beach restoration and breakwater’ option was less expensive than the do minimum option, which appears unlikely. For this reason the costs for the options were adjusted so that this case study could be continued.

The costs of the ‘do minimum’ option were recalculated to account for £32,500/year of non-construction costs, plus 2% of capital construction costs as consultancy costs. Note that these estimates are likely to be inaccurate, as RPA did not have access to all information to produce accurate estimates. They will however allow for the case study to proceed.

Table 4.1 Summary of total costs of the options being appraised in the Newbiggin Bay strategy OPTIONS Do minimum Improve Improve Plus (Remedial Beach Beach Costs Works) restoration + restoration and fishtail groyne breakwater PV Costs from estimates 5,965 9,268 9,761 Optimism bias adjustment 3,579 5,561 5,857 Total PV costs for appraisal PVc 9,544 14,829 15,618

Section 4: Costs of options 9 5. Assessment of impacts

5.1 Qualitative and quantitative assessment

The assessment followed a stepped approach, starting with the qualitative assessment of all impact categories and moving to the quantitative assessment whenever information was available.

5.2 Monetary valuation of impacts

As it has been said before, the majority of impacts are due to erosion. For simplification in this case study, it is assumed properties that may be affected by flooding will first be eroded, hence, no flooding damages are calculated. Erosion along the frontage will result in:

• loss of promenade and adjacent residential and commercial properties; • loss of 529 residential properties from erosion over next 20 years; and • loss of 56 commercial properties from erosion next 20 years.

The average property value in Newbiggin area is £69,692 (Land Registry Site Jan-March 2004) such that the total loss of residential and commercial properties is estimated at £40.8 million over the next 20 years (PV).

5.3 Scoring of impacts

Impacts of the options have been scored using a ChaRT-type approach, where the scores are based on the numbers of a defined characteristic and the recovery time following flooding. As this case study relates to erosion, the approach has been refined so that the damages are based on the time when the characteristics would be lost as a result of erosion. The scores are calculated using the ‘Erosion’ worksheet of the FCDPAG3 spreadsheet allowing the delay provided by each option to be taken into consideration.

The characteristics used are summarised in Table 5.1. Recovery times are not relevant where erosion is the problem rather the delay provided by the options that determines differences between them in terms of damages. Where this delay is greater than the onset of erosion for the option (e.g. due to the particular characteristics being set back from the coastline immediately at threat), the time that erosion is expected to affect the characteristic in question is given in Table 5.1. It is also important to know if the impacts are one-offs (e.g. erosion of a property) or recur annually (e.g. loss of access to for recreation). This is also reported in Table 5.1

10 Section 5: Assessment of impacts Table 5.1 Basis for the characteristic and recovery times for Newbiggin Category Characteristic used Timing of erosion

Economic impacts

Assets Valued in monetary terms

Land use Loss of land (area) Year 20, one-off impact

Not relevant – no significant transport infrastructure will be Transport eroded Loss of commercial property Business development Year 20, one-off impact (number of properties)

Environmental impacts

Loss of intertidal habitats, Physical habitats Year 1, one-off impact SSSIs and Ramsar (area)

Water quality Not relevant – significant effect on water quality is not expected

Water quantity Not relevant – no water supplies will be affected

Natural processes Erosion rate (m/yr) Year 1, annual impact

Loss of historical buildings Historical environment Year 10, one-off impact (number of buildings)

Landscape and visual Loss of land recognised for Year 20, one-off impact amenity landscape value (area)

Social impacts

Number of visits lost from Recreation Year 10, annual impact onset of loss of footpaths Number of people affected Health and safety Year 15, one-off impact (residential properties x 2.3)

Availability and accessibility Not relevant – no significant impact on services of services

Number of people affected Equity Year 15, one-off impact (residential properties x 2.3) Number of people affected Sense of community Year 15, one-off impact (residential properties x 2.3)

Cross-cutting impacts

Policy integration Number of policies affected Year 5, one-off impact

Section 5: Assessment of impacts 11 The scores are calculated automatically by the spreadsheet once the characteristic number (or area, etc.), year and type of impact are entered. Table 5.2 provides a summary of the scores for each option.

Table 5.2 ChaRT Scores for Newbiggin-by-the-Sea case study ‘Do- Do Improve Category Improve nothing’ minimum plus Land Use 0 85 100 100 Transport Not relevant Business development 0 85 100 100 Physical habitats 0 67 100 100 Water quality Not relevant Water quantity Not relevant Natural processes 100 33 0 0 Historical environment 0 77 100 100 Landscape and visual amenity 0 85 100 100 Recreation 0 77 100 100 Health and safety 0 81 100 100 Availability and accessibility of Not relevant services Equity 0 81 100 100 Sense of community 0 81 100 100 Policy Integration 0 72 100 100

12 Section 5: Assessment of impacts 6. Weighting and comparison of options

6.1 Source of weights

6.2 Comparison of options

Table 6.1 provides a summary table of monetary costs and benefits and scores for Newbiggin.

From the Table, Option 2: Do minimum is the option with the highest benefit- cost ratio and, hence, is the starting option for the appraisal. The next highest options are Options 3 and 4 (improve and Improve+ Sub-options), which represent sub-options. To be justified over Option 2: Do minimum, both of these options must achieve an incremental benefit-cost ratio of 1.5. Neither of the Improve sub-options, achieve this and require additional intangible benefits to achieve the criterion, with Option 3 requiring an additional £5,804,500 and Option 4 an additional £6,988,000 of intangible benefit.

In considering the options, the first observation that should be made is that both of the Improve options score exactly the same on the intangible scoring index. As such, Option 4 can never have a higher intangible benefit than Option 3. This combined with the fact that Option 4 requires a higher level of additional benefit than Option 3 to reach the criterion, means that Option 4 can never be preferred over Option 3. The remainder of the appraisal is thus focussed on whether Option 3 is likely to be preferred over Option 2.

Analysis with the CRWG provides the lower, middle and upper bound estimates of the intangible incremental benefit of Option 3 relative to Option 2 expressed in units on the scoring index. These are 10.7, 18.1 and 23.6 respectively.

Combining these with the magnitude of the additional benefits required to reach the 1.5 criterion suggests that the value of a point on the index (k in pounds) would have to be, at very least, greater than £246,261 (where this reflects the maximum incremental benefit score achievable with the most favourable weight combination - however realistic/unrealistic this is). If the value of a single point (k) were taken as being £246,261, this implies that the total value of the intangible assets being considered in the 100 point scoring appraisal would have to be greater than 100 x £246,261. In other words, if Option 3: Improve were to be the preferred option, this would imply that the total value of intangible assets considered in the AST and scoring matrix would have to be greater than £24,626,100 at the very least. This is a value in excess of the total PV damage costs of the ‘do-nothing’ option of £20,505,000, which represent maximum

Section 6: Weighting and comparison of options 13 possible benefits of protection at Newbiggin valued under the traditional monetary approach to economic value. In other words, for Option 3: Improve to be preferred, the intangible assets at Newbiggin would have to have a value of at least 1.25 times those of the assets valued under the traditional monetary approach to economic value. As this is very unlikely to be the case, it is concluded that Option 3: Improve is not justified.

Option 2: Do minimum is the preferred Option.

14 Section 6: Weighting and comparison of options 6.1 Summary table of costs and benefits – Newbiggin Option 1: Option 2: Do- Do Option 3: Improve Option 4: Improve + nothing minimum PV costs from estimates Optimism bias adjustment Total PV Costs 4,528,000 14,829,000 15,618,000 for appraisal PVc PV damage PVd PV damage avoided PV assets Pva 20,505 10,305,000 657,000 657,000 PV asset protection 10,200,000 19,847,000 19,847,000 benefits Total PV benefits 10,200,000 19,847,000 19,847,000 PVb Net Present Value 5,672,000 5,019,000 4,230,000 NPV Average 2.25 1.34 1.27 (relative to Option 2) benefit/cost ratio Incremental 0.94 0.87 (relative to Option 2) benefit/cost ratio Required Incremental B/C 1.5 1.5 (relative to Option 2) ratio Required Additional 5804500 6988000 Benefits to Meet Criterion Min Ave Max Min Ave Max Weighted Score 79.8 93.8 98.9 79.8 93.8 98.9 (CRWG) Scored Intangible Incremental Benefit of Moving 10.7 18.1 23.6 10.7 18.1 23.6 to the Next Option (CRWG) Justified Justified Justified Justified Justified Justified when when when when when when value value value value value N/A value per Comments per point per point per point per point per point point (k) (k) (k) (k) (k) (k) exceeds exceeds exceeds exceeds exceeds exceeds Implied additional benefits per point £540,39 £320,41 £246,26 £650,5 £385,74 £296,47 N/A (k) to meet 6 8 1 79 9 2 criterion

Section 6: Weighting and comparison of options 15 7. References

Atkins 2003a. Newbiggin Bay Coast Defence Strategy Project Appraisal Report – Consultation Draft, Report produced for Wansbeck District Council, December 2003.

Atkins 2003. Newbiggin Seaside Strategy – Draft Final Report, report produced for Wansbeck District Council, December 2003.

Atkins 1998. Newbiggin Bay Coastal Feasibilty Study, Final report, 1998. prepared for Wansbeck District Council

Atkins 1996. Newbiggin Bay Coastal Processes Study, Final report, February 1996. prepared for Wansbeck District Council

UKCIP02 Climate Change Scenarios for the United Kingdom: The UKCIP02 Scientific Report, April 2002

16 Section 7: References Appendix A7.1:

Appraisal summary table for high-level Screening – S-AST for the Newbiggin-by-the-Sea coast protection strategy

Appendix 7.1 17 Table A7.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – high level screening Project name Newbiggin Bay coast defence strategy Assumptions: The high level screening will correspond to the ‘do-nothing’ option. Qualitative Impact Impact or Monetary likely? Impact details category quantitative valuation (Y/N) assessment Economic Impacts

• Loss of promenade and adjacent residential and commercial properties • Loss of frontage in 5 years • Loss of 529 residential properties from erosion over next 20 years • Loss of 56 commercial properties from erosion next 20 years Assets Y • Los of promenade in less than 2 years 9 9 • Loss of 54 residential homes from flooding • Loss of 16 commercial properties from flooding • Average property value in Newbiggin area is £69,692 (Land Registry Site Jan- March 2004) Total loss value: £40.8 million over the next 20 years (PV)

• Change from residential and commercial land use to abandoned areas with derelict/damaged properties. 2 Land use Y • 1-5 years: 13,000m lost due to erosion 9 2 • 5-10 years: 28,000m lost due to erosion 2 • 10-20 years: 98,000m lost due to erosion Transport N

• Commercial loss of fishing industry • Decline in tourism as sites of interest are lost and recreational use of beach is no longer possible • Loss of 56 commercial properties from erosion next 20 years Business Y Loss of 16 commercial properties from development • 9 flooding • 56 + 16 • Total loss: £5 million • Potential loss of a tourist industry valued at £25 million in 2002 (Wansbeck District Council) Environmental impacts

• Due to continued erosive processes loss of intertidal area as the sea encroaches Physical Y upon the seawall. This would result in habitats 9 the loss of SSSI and SPA/Ramsar sites; 2 • 218,000m : loss of SPA/Ramsar sites

18 Appendix 7.1 Table A7.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – high level screening Project name Newbiggin Bay coast defence strategy Assumptions: The high level screening will correspond to the ‘do-nothing’ option. Qualitative Impact Impact or Monetary likely? Impact details category quantitative valuation (Y/N) assessment 2 • Extra 49,000 m :loss of Northumberland Shore SSSI’s 2 • Extra 49,000 m Cresswell and Newbiggin Shores SSSI’s Water quality N Water quantity N

Natural • Increased wave penetrations and Y processes continued erosion of Newbiggin beach 9

• Loss of North Northumberland Heritage Coast Historical Loss of historic buildings Y • 9 Environment • St Bartholomew’s Church threatened by erosion. Assumed value x 2.5 residential property. Total loss: £174,230

• The beach will retreat changing the Landscape and coastal landscape Y 9 visual amenity • The degraded seawall will alter the visual amenity of the town. Social impacts

• Potential for water sports lost Recreation Y • Loss of promenade 9 • Slipway will be lost, reducing accessibility

• Residents and visitors will be at risk from flooding events • Degrading defences may create a risk • Boat launching will become dangerous due to wave reflections The stability of the lifeboat slipway will be Health and • Y threatened safety 9 • Continued erosion the land behind the promenade has a safety factor of less than 1 • Loss of lifeboat facility assumed to have the same value as residential property £69,692 Availability and accessibility of N services

Loss of tourism will reduce number of jobs Equity Y available locally and is likely to increase 9 deprivation.

Appendix 7.2 19 Table A7.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – high level screening Project name Newbiggin Bay coast defence strategy Assumptions: The high level screening will correspond to the ‘do-nothing’ option. Qualitative Impact Impact or Monetary likely? Impact details category quantitative valuation (Y/N) assessment

Loss of tourism based jobs and properties Sense of Y are likely to result in people having to move community 9 out of the local area.

Cross-cutting impacts

• Regeneration projects relevant to Newbiggin may be adversely affected Policy with the adoption of this option. Y 9 Integration • This option will conflict with the current ‘Hold the Line’ policy adopted by the Newbiggin Strategy and the SMP

20 Appendix 7.1 Appendix A7.2:

Appraisal summary table for main assessment – MA-AST for the Newbiggin-by-the-Sea coast protection strategy

Appendix 7.2 21 Table A7.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Newbiggin-by-the-Sea Coast Defence Strategy Description of option ‘Do-nothing’ The Northumberland village of Newbiggin-by-the-Sea faces Newbiggin Bay. The bay is characterised by a narrow sandy beach and promenade. The Description of area area is of significant environmental importance, having a number of national affected by option and international designations. There is a significant risk from erosion and some flooding. Impact Impact Qualitative description of Quantitative assessment category likely? impacts of impacts (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) value Score Monetary

Economic impacts Loss of frontage in 5 years Loss of 529 residential properties from erosion over next 20 years Loss of 56 commercial properties from erosion next 20 years Damages Loss of promenade and Los of promenade in less £40.8 adjacent residential and than 2 years million Assets Y commercial properties over the Loss of 54 residential next 20 homes from flooding years Loss of 16 commercial (PV) properties from flooding Average property value in Newbiggin area is £69,692 (Land Registry Site Jan- March 2004) Total loss value: £40.8 million over the next 20 years (PV) 1-5 years: 13,000m2 lost due Change from residential to erosion and commercial land use to 5-10 years: 28,000m2 lost Land use Y abandoned areas with 0 due to erosion derelict/damaged properties. 10-20 years: 98,000m2 lost due to erosion

Transport N - -

22 Appendix 7.2 Table A7.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Newbiggin-by-the-Sea Coast Defence Strategy Description of option ‘Do-nothing’ The Northumberland village of Newbiggin-by-the-Sea faces Newbiggin Bay. The bay is characterised by a narrow sandy beach and promenade. The Description of area area is of significant environmental importance, having a number of national affected by option and international designations. There is a significant risk from erosion and some flooding. Impact Impact Qualitative description of Quantitative assessment category likely? impacts of impacts (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) value Score Monetary

Loss of 56 commercial properties from erosion, next Commercial loss of fishing 20 years industry Loss of 16 commercial properties from flooding Decline in tourism as sites Business Y of interest are lost and 56 + 16 0 development recreational use of beach is Total loss: £5 million no longer possible Potential loss of a tourist industry valued at £25 million in 2002 (Wansbeck District Council) Environmental impacts 218,000m2 : loss of Due to continued erosive SPA/Ramsar sites processes loss of intertidal Extra 49,000 m2: loss of area as the sea encroaches Physical Northumberland Shore Y upon the seawall. This 0 habitats SSSI’s would result in the loss of SSSI and SPA/Ramsar Extra 49,000 m2: Cresswell sites and Newbiggin Shores SSSI’s

Water quality N

Water N quantity

Increased wave Natural Y penetrations and continued 100 processes erosion of Newbiggin beach

Loss of North St Bartholomew’s Church threatened by erosion. Historical Northumberland Heritage Y Assumed value x 2.5 0 Environment Coast residential property. Total Loss of historic buildings loss: £174,230

Appendix 7.2 23 Table A7.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Newbiggin-by-the-Sea Coast Defence Strategy Description of option ‘Do-nothing’ The Northumberland village of Newbiggin-by-the-Sea faces Newbiggin Bay. The bay is characterised by a narrow sandy beach and promenade. The Description of area area is of significant environmental importance, having a number of national affected by option and international designations. There is a significant risk from erosion and some flooding. Impact Impact Qualitative description of Quantitative assessment category likely? impacts of impacts (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) value Score Monetary

The beach will retreat changing the coastal Landscape landscape and visual Y 0 amenity The degraded seawall will alter the visual amenity of the town. Social

Impacts Potential loss of water sports Recreation Y Loss of promenade 0 Slipway will be lost, reducing accessibility Residents and visitors will be at risk from flooding events Continued erosion the land Degrading defences may behind the promenade has a safety factor of less than 1 Health and create a risk Y Loss of lifeboat facility 0 safety Boat launching will become assumed to have the same dangerous due to wave value as residential property reflections £69,692 The stability of the lifeboat slipway will be threatened

Availability and N accessibility of services Loss of tourism will reduce number of jobs available Equity Y 0 locally and is likely to increase deprivation. Loss of tourism based jobs Sense of and properties are likely to Y 0 community result in people having to move out of the local area. Cross- cutting impacts

24 Appendix 7.2 Table A7.2.1 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Newbiggin-by-the-Sea Coast Defence Strategy Description of option ‘Do-nothing’ The Northumberland village of Newbiggin-by-the-Sea faces Newbiggin Bay. The bay is characterised by a narrow sandy beach and promenade. The Description of area area is of significant environmental importance, having a number of national affected by option and international designations. There is a significant risk from erosion and some flooding. Impact Impact Qualitative description of Quantitative assessment category likely? impacts of impacts (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) value Score Monetary Regeneration projects relevant to Newbiggin may be adversely affected with the adoption of this option. Policy Y This option will conflict with 0 integration the current ‘Hold the Line’ policy adopted by the Newbiggin Strategy and the SMP

Appendix 7.2 25 Table A7.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Newbiggin-by-the-Sea Coast Defence Strategy Description of Do minimum (maintains 1:200 for up to 30 years. Standard after this time is option unknown) The Northumberland village of Newbiggin-by-the-Sea faces Newbiggin Bay. The Description of area bay is characterised by a narrow sandy beach and promenade. The area is of affected by option significant environmental importance, having a number of national and international designations. There is a significant risk from erosion and some flooding.

Impact Quantitative assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary Economic impacts Loss of frontage in 5 years Loss of 529 residential properties from erosion over next 20 years Loss of 56 commercial properties from erosion next 20 years Los of promenade in less Damages: After 20 years would result in than 2 years £40.8 Assets Y complete loss of Newbiggin - million after Loss of 54 residential homes Bay 20 years from flooding (PV) Loss of 16 commercial properties from flooding Average property value in Newbiggin area is £69,692 (Land Registry Site Jan-March 2004) Total loss value: £40.8 million over the next 20 years (PV) After 20 years there will be a change from residential and Land use Y commercial land use to 85 abandoned areas with derelict/damaged properties Transport N

26 Appendix 7.2 Table A7.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Newbiggin-by-the-Sea Coast Defence Strategy Description of Do minimum (maintains 1:200 for up to 30 years. Standard after this time is option unknown) The Northumberland village of Newbiggin-by-the-Sea faces Newbiggin Bay. The Description of area bay is characterised by a narrow sandy beach and promenade. The area is of affected by option significant environmental importance, having a number of national and international designations. There is a significant risk from erosion and some flooding.

Impact Quantitative assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Loss of 56 commercial properties from erosion next 20 years Commercial loss of fishing Loss of 16 commercial industry properties from flooding Decline in tourism as sites of Total loss: £5 million Business Y interest are lost and 85 development recreational use of beach is no (calculated using average longer possible. However this residential property value would be delayed for 20 years. 2004) After 20 years, potential loss of a tourist industry valued at £25 million in 2002 (Wansbeck District Council) Environmental impacts Loss of intertidal habitats Increased sediment load in Physical water column during Y 67 habitats construction may impact on shellfish stocks. Losses would occur at year 1 Water quality N Water N quantity Continued erosion as the Natural scheme would not stabilise the Y 33 processes beach. Increased wave penetration St Bartholomew’s Church Eventual loss of North threatened by erosion. Historical Northumberland Heritage Y Assumed value x2.5 77 environment Coast due to continued residential property. Total loss: erosion £174,230 High visual impact of additional armour stone Landscape Loss of sand beach due to and visual Y erosion 85 amenity After 30 years the impacts of this option will be the same as the ‘do-nothing’. Social Impacts

Appendix 7.2 27 Table A7.2.2 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Newbiggin-by-the-Sea Coast Defence Strategy Description of Do minimum (maintains 1:200 for up to 30 years. Standard after this time is option unknown) The Northumberland village of Newbiggin-by-the-Sea faces Newbiggin Bay. The Description of area bay is characterised by a narrow sandy beach and promenade. The area is of affected by option significant environmental importance, having a number of national and international designations. There is a significant risk from erosion and some flooding.

Impact Quantitative assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary Erosion of beach will result in the loss of the beach area for recreational purposes in most People will seek alternative Recreation Y areas 77 locations for leisure activities Increased wave penetration will make launching and retrieving boats more difficult Residential safety from flooding provided for up to 30 Health and Y years 81 safety After 30 years increased risk of slope instability along southwest promenade Availability and N accessibility of services After 30 years, loss of tourism will reduce number of jobs Equity Y 81 available locally and is likely to increase deprivation The economic viability of the Sense of village will be removed due to community the inaccessibility of the beach Cross- cutting impacts Regeneration projects relevant to Newbiggin may be adversely affected with the adoption of this option Policy Y After 30 years this option will 72 integration conflict with the current ‘Hold the Line’ policy adopted by the Newbiggin Strategy and the SMP

28 Appendix 7.2 Table A7.2.3 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Newbiggin-by-the-Sea coast defence strategy

Description of option Improve (Option 3) The Northumberland village of Newbiggin-by-the-Sea faces Newbiggin Bay. The bay is characterised by a narrow sandy beach and promenade. The area is of Description of area significant environmental importance, having a number of national and affected by option international designations. There is a significant risk from erosion and some flooding.

Impact Quantitative assessment Impact Qualitative description of likely? of impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary Economic impacts Greater protection from flood events and erosion Benefits: £40.8 Assets Y - Residential and commercial million property protected to a greater (PV) extent

Land use N 100

Increased traffic disturbance Transport Y due to construction

Fishing industry would benefit from a stabilised beach Potential for improvement to the tourist industry in the area

Improved commercial fishing Fishermen would require Business due to increased mooring and compensation as following Y 100 development sheltering construction net may be However fishing would not be permanently affected able to occur during construction and the presence of groynes could result in salmon netting no longer being viable Environmental impacts The intertidal habitats will be sustained. Rock structures will provide bird roosting sites and Physical Y habitats for fish 100 habitats Increased sediment load may have adverse effects on local shellfish stocks

Water quality N

Water N quantity

Appendix 7.2 29 Table A7.2.3 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Newbiggin-by-the-Sea coast defence strategy

Impact Quantitative assessment Impact Qualitative description of likely? of impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Present erosion problem would Natural be stabilised without affecting Y 0 processes sediment exchange with other areas

Historical Protection of North Y 100 environment Northumberland Heritage Coast

The beach would be maintained Landscape and visual Y New rock/groyne structures 100 amenity would have a negative visual impact on the bay

Social impacts

Beach restoration would widen Recreation Y the scope for beach/water 100 related activities in the area

Residents would have greater Health and Y protection from flooding events 100 safety and erosion

Availability and Access to life-boat service Y 100 accessibility improved of services

Beach amenity could create more jobs for the local Equity Y 100 population, reducing deprivation in the area

Increased sense of community Sense of as resident no longer at risk Y 100 community from flooding or erosive processes. Cross- cutting impacts

30 Appendix 7.2 Table A7.2.3 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Newbiggin-by-the-Sea coast defence strategy

Impact Quantitative assessment Impact Qualitative description of likely? of impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Regeneration projects relevant to Newbiggin would benefit from the positive impacts of this option. Policy Y 100 integration This option does not entail conflict with the policy of ‘Hold the Line’ adopted by the Newbiggin Strategy and the SMP

Appendix 7.2 31 Table A7.2.4 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Newbiggin-by-the-Sea Coast Defence Strategy Description of option Improve Plus (Option 4) The Northumberland village of Newbiggin-by-the-Sea faces Newbiggin Bay. The Description of area bay is characterised by a narrow sandy beach and promenade. The area is of affected by option significant environmental importance, having a number of national and international designations. There is a significant risk from erosion and some flooding.

Impact Quantitative assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary Economic impacts Residential and commercial property protected from Benefits: erosion, and protected to a £40.8 Assets Y greater extent from flooding - million events (PV) Protection of promenade

Land use N 100

Increased traffic disturbance Transport Y due to construction

Potential for improvement to the tourist industry in the area Fishing industry would benefit from a stabilised beach Improved commercial fishing due to increased mooring and Fishermen would require sheltering Business compensation as following Y 100 development Reduced wave activity would construction net may be improve navigation in the bay permanently affected However fishing would not be able to occur during construction and the presence of a central groyne could result in salmon netting no longer being viable Environmental impacts Scheme will create additional intertidal habitats Increased armourstone will Physical Y provide additional fish habitats 100 habitats Increased sediment load may have adverse effects on local shellfish stocks

32 Appendix 7.2 Table A7.2.4 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Newbiggin-by-the-Sea Coast Defence Strategy Description of option Improve Plus (Option 4) The Northumberland village of Newbiggin-by-the-Sea faces Newbiggin Bay. The Description of area bay is characterised by a narrow sandy beach and promenade. The area is of affected by option significant environmental importance, having a number of national and international designations. There is a significant risk from erosion and some flooding.

Impact Quantitative assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary

Increased risk of pollution due Water Y to potential for water sports quality and recreation

Water N quantity

Breakwater would reduce wave impact on the shore. Natural Y Combined with beach 0 processes nourishment this would reduce erosive processes

Protection of North Historical Y Northumberland Heritage 100 Environment Coast

Landscape New rock/groyne structures and visual Y would have a negative visual 100 amenity impact on the bay Social

Impacts Breakwater construction would Recreation Y force boats out into 100 unsheltered areas

Residents would have greater Health and Y protection from flooding events 100 safety and erosion

Availability and Access to life-boat service Y 100 accessibility improved of services

Beach amenity could create more jobs for the local Equity Y 100 population, reducing deprivation in the area

Increased sense of community Sense of as resident no longer at risk Y 100 community from flooding or erosive processes.

Appendix 7.2 33 Table A7.2.4 Appraisal summary table for flood management and coastal defence – main assessment Project name Newbiggin-by-the-Sea Coast Defence Strategy Description of option Improve Plus (Option 4) The Northumberland village of Newbiggin-by-the-Sea faces Newbiggin Bay. The Description of area bay is characterised by a narrow sandy beach and promenade. The area is of affected by option significant environmental importance, having a number of national and international designations. There is a significant risk from erosion and some flooding.

Impact Quantitative assessment of Impact Qualitative description of likely? impacts category impacts value (Y/N) (no. units/monetary) Score Monetary Cross- cutting impacts Regeneration projects relevant to Newbiggin would benefit from the positive impacts of this option. Policy Y 100 integration This option does not entail conflict with the policy of ‘Hold the Line’ adopted by the Newbiggin Strategy and the SMP

34 Appendix 7.2 Joint Defra/EA Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management R&D Programme

Annex C:

Report of the workshop on approaches to scoring in the context of the MCA component of the economic appraisal for flood and coastal erosion risk management

R&D Project Record FD2013/PR2

Dissemination Status Internal: Released internally External: Released to public domain

Keywords: Multi criteria analysis, MCA, appraisal summary table, AST, decision rule

Acknowledgements The assistance of those providing information for the case studies is gratefully acknowledged.

Defra project manager: Matt Crossman, Defra, 3D Ergon House, Horseferry Rd, London, SW1P 2AL. Email: [email protected]

Publishing organisation Defra Flood Management Division Ergon House Horseferry Road London SW1P 2AL Tel: 020 7238 3000 Fax: 020 7238 6187 www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd

Published by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Printed in the UK, March 2005 on recycled material containing 80% post-consumer waste and 20% totally chlorine free virgin pulp.

PB No. 10734/PR2 ISBN 0-85521-146-6

ii 1. Introduction

In order to further explore the approaches to scoring being proposed as part of the MCA-based component, a workshop was organised to facilitate discussion with stakeholders in order for their views and personal experiences to be considered in the final outputs of the research.

The workshop was held on the 1st October 2004 in the Water UK Building, in London and had the following objectives:

• to discuss how impacts within MCA can be robustly and consistently scored; • to review the scoring systems created to date; and • to generate recommendations on the type of approach that can carried forward.

In addition to four RPA staff, namely, Meg Postle, John Ash, Teresa Fenn and Susana Dias, a total of 24 participants from a range of interested organisations attended the event (Table 1.1).

Table 1.1 List of workshop attendees Name Organisation David Richardson Defra – FM Kevin Andrews Defra - Economics Matt Crossman Defra – FM Keith Cole West Dorset District Council Paula Orr Environment Agency Bernard Ayling Environment Agency – Flood and Coastal Defence Liz Galloway Environment Agency – Environmental Impact Assessment Sue Reed Environment Agency – Environmental Impact Assessment David Murphy Environment Agency – CFMP Trevor Linford Environment Agency – CFMP Colin Foan Environment Agency John Corkindale Environment Agency Roger Morris English Nature Stuart Pasley Countryside Agency – Landscape and Amenity Impacts Mikael Down HM Treasury – Flood and Coastal Defence Peter Brooks Canterbury City Council Ron Eckersley Lancaster City Council David Southcott Arun District Council Alison Atkinson Halcrow Group – SMP Paul Sayers HR Wallingford – MDSF Steve Wade HR Wallingford – Sustainable Flood and Coastal Defence

Section 1: Introduction 1 Jackie Leslie WS Atkins – Water Katie Prebble Black & Veatch Consulting Colin Green Middlesex University (FHRC)

The agenda for the day is shown in Table 1.2.

Table 1.2 Workshop timetable Time Function Speaker

9h30 – 9h45 Coffee and Registration

9h45 – 10h00 Introduction Matthew Crossman (Defra)

10h00 – 10h20 Presentation on the MCA methodology John Ash (RPA)

10h20 – 10h40 General discussion.

10h40 – 10h55 Presentation on the First Round of Scoring Teresa Fenn (RPA) Approaches

10h55 – 11h20 Coffee break

11h20 – 12h35 First Breakout Session – Applying the First Round of Scoring Approaches

12h35 – 13h00 Feedback from First Breakout Session

13h00 – 14h00 Lunch

14h00 – 14h15 Presentation on the Second Round of Scoring Teresa Fenn (RPA) Approaches

14h30 – 15h15 Second Breakout Session – Identifying Characteristics and Recovery Times

15h15 – 16h15 Feedback from Second Breakout Session

16h15 – 16h30 Wrap Up Meg Postle/John Ash (RPA)

The workshop was divided into three main parts:

• in the first part of the morning there were two main presentations to introduce the context of the workshop and inform the participants about the progress achieved in developing the MCA-based methodology. This was followed by an open discussion about the methodology itself; • in the second part of the morning, there was another presentation that introduced the participants to the first set of scoring approaches and set the context for the first breakout session. After the first breakout session, there was time for feedback and discussion; and • the afternoon commenced with a presentation on the second set of scoring approaches and the setting of the second breakout session. After the second breakout session, there was time for feedback and discussion.

2 Section 1: Introduction 2. Morning session

The first presentation was given by Matthew Crossman from Defra on the context and setting of the MCA project, as well as a brief summary of the progress of the project so far.

This introduction was followed by a presentation by John Ash from RPA. The first part of his presentation provided the aims and objectives of the MCA project and the context in which the MCA-based approach has been developed. The second part of his presentation introduced the MCA-based methodology, the key issues it is trying to resolve and the status of its development at present, including a brief summary of the case study work that had been carried out. Finally, he briefly ran through the different steps of the proposed approach and set out the challenges for the day.

Teresa Fenn (RPA) followed, with a talk on the approaches to scoring trialled in the first set of case studies. She started her presentation with the aims and objectives of scoring and then briefly summarised four different scoring approaches, namely, the ‘zero to 100’ approach, the ‘relative to 100’ approach, the ‘likert scale’ approach and the ‘across unit’ approach. Finally, Teresa summarised the findings from the application of the scoring approaches to the first set of cases studies, in terms of:

• being based on objective information; • avoiding double counting; • allowing for both small and large differences; • respecting the proportionality of impacts; • taking account of uncertainty; and • being based on same/similar information as used to estimate monetary values.

2.1 Breakout session 1

The introductory presentations were followed by the first breakout session of the day. The objective of the first breakout session was to apply the ‘zero to 100’ and ‘relative to 100’ approaches to a case study, in order for the participants to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of such scoring systems.

The attendees were divided into four different groups, two of which (groups 1 and 3) were tasked with applying the ‘zero to 100’ approach, whilst the other two (groups 2 and 4) were tasked with applying the ‘relative to 100’ system. The composition of each of the groups is presented in Appendix C1.1.

The participants were provided with a handout setting out the task, some background information on both the scoring approach to be applied and the case study itself (i.e. summary of project area and geography of the area,

Section 2: Morning session 3 existing defences and the ‘do-nothing’ option), some points for discussion after the scoring has been undertaken, an Appraisal Summary Table (AST) and a Scoring AST for the groups to record their scores and the justifications for those scores. The handouts for Breakout Session 1 are presented in Appendix C1.2.

2.2 Conclusions from breakout session 1

After the first breakout session, there was a discussion on the group conclusions about the applications of the ‘zero to 100’ and ‘relative to 100’ scoring approaches.

There was a general feeling that there was a lack of objective information on which to base the scores. This conclusion was reached even when it was stressed that the background information provided was that available in a ‘real’ case study. This was put down to the fact that there is in general a lack of quantitative information at the high level of appraisal but it was also noted that the case study was based on information already available.

Also, it was concluded that the meaning of words (in the absence of numbers) is key to the scoring process, hence, the scoring was not based on objective information but there was an underlying structured subjectivity.

The scores applied to each of the impact categories being assessed by each group were not very consistent, and even within the same group there was not necessarily an agreement about how much each option would score for each impact category. Table 2.1 presents the different scores assigned by the different groups for two of the impact categories assessed, namely, physical habitats and equity. Table 2.1 Different scores applied by three of the breakout groups to two of the impact categories

Maintain 1:20 Improve Improve Category ‘Do-nothing’ (decreasing to Sustain 1:20 1:50 1:100 1:5) Group 1 Physical 0# 20 70 90 100 habitats 100* 0 0 0 0 Equity 0 30-40 70-80 99 100 Group 3 Physical 0# 25 75 100 90 habitats 100* 75 45 0 0 Equity 0 10 40-50 100 100 Group 4 Physical 0# 10 50-80 100 100 habitats 100* 5 0 0 0 Equity 5 40-50 90 100 100 Notes: # Terrestrial freshwater habitats * Intertidal habitats

4 Section 2: Morning session As can be seen in Table 2.1, the scores provided by different groups for the same impact category under the same option can vary considerably. For example, the scores for impacts on equity under the Maintain option vary from 10 to between 40 and 50. Some groups felt more confident in providing ranges of scores in order to deal with uncertainty. This was more often the case when dealing with the social impact categories, where arguably the uncertainty is larger, than with the environmental categories. It is also interesting to note that the scores for the physical habitats category are closer together between groups.

The point was also made that although scoring of categories in relation to options was sometimes difficult, there was much less difficulty in ranking the options. This is made clear in Table 2.1 by the fact that there is a consistency between groups in which is the best and the worst option. Another interesting conclusion is that even those groups that were supposed to be applying the ‘relative to 100’ approach generally ended up applying scores between zero and 100 (this is because at least one option generally resulted in a ‘loss’ of something which needed the worst score possible, i.e. zero).

It was also agreed that, overall, the scoring systems were easy to use and that it would be easy to apply sensitivity analysis to the scores in order to test their importance to the selection of the preferred option.

In relation to the issue of double counting, it was agreed that there was the potential for it to occur. However, it could be dealt with by using more precise definitions of what each impact category includes and potentially breaking down some of the impact categories. It is believed that some of the issues that were raised in relation to the definitions of impact categories stemmed on one hand, from the lack of familiarity with the definitions but also because the exercise was focused on four of these impact categories, with a tendency to ignore the remaining 12 categories. For example, the recreation aspects of physical habitats are assessed under the recreation impact category rather then under the physical habitats category.

The potential need to collapse some of the impact categories in order to avoid double counting was also voiced by some participants. This was particularly the case for the ‘sense of community’ and ‘equity’ impact categories as well as ‘business development’.

The attendees agreed that the scoring approaches trialled allowed for marginal changes between options to be captured in the scores. There seemed to be no particular concern in relation to this issue. Proportionality between scores of different options did not seem to raise any concerns, as long as the problem is broken down, i.e. the impact categories are divided into sub-categories.

In relation to the issue of transparency, there was agreement that the use of scoring ASTs would ensure that the reasons behind the scoring would be clear and available for each individual impact criteria. There was, however, some

Section 2: Morning session 5 concern relating to transparency in the overall assessment, i.e. how to bring the individual criteria together. Most participants agreed that transparency was being maintained by the fact that there was space for recording the justifications for the scores.

There was some concern that the scores were impact based rather than risk based. It was evident that the focus of attention was not on the differences between options but on the impact of each option in absolute terms. Also, the scoring approach did not explicitly take probabilities into account, even if probability was considered implicitly in an ad hoc manner. The question of how to include probability in such scoring systems was raised.

When asked whether the group would be willing to validate the scores in a decision-making situation, there were mixed feelings. Some of the groups were not concerned about the subjectivity of such scores; others were concerned given the uncertainty and subjectivity of the numbers.

It is believed that the fact that the scoring exercise was performed in a group meant that the people were, in general, reasonably satisfied with the scores. This could mean that scoring by committee, i.e. carry out the scoring of a project in a group, could be another viable scoring approach.

6 Section 2: Morning session 3. Afternoon session

The afternoon session started with a second presentation by Teresa Fenn on the approaches to scoring trialled in the second set of case studies. Following from her first presentation, Teresa introduced the different levels at which the assessment of projects was undertaken, providing definitions for SMP level, Strategy and Scheme level, and went on to focus on the strategy level appraisal. In the second part of the presentation, Teresa introduced and summarised a new approach to scoring based on characteristics and recovery times, the ‘ChaRT’ scoring system.

Although no time was allocated for discussion after the presentation, some concern arose from the definitions of the three levels of appraisal, i.e. high level, strategy and scheme. It became clear that there is not one ‘universally’ accepted definition for each of these levels and what they include. This is important and needs to be explored further as a clear understanding of different levels of the appraisal is vital.

3.1 Breakout session 2

The afternoon presentation and discussion were followed by the second breakout session of the day. The objective of the second breakout session was to apply the ‘ChaRT’ scoring approach to the Humber Estuary (Management Unit 6) case study, in order for the participants to discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the ChaRT scoring system and in particular compare it to the approaches used in the morning.

The attendees were, once again, separated into the four groups and were tasked with defining a characteristic that represented each impact category under assessment and, secondly, the time it would take a characteristic to recover after the flood.

The participants were provided with a handout setting out the task, some background information on the scoring approach to be applied, some points for discussion for after the scoring had been undertaken, a Characteristic Summary Table and a Recovery Time Summary Table to record the results of their exercise. The handouts for Breakout Session 2 are presented in Appendix C1.3.

3.2 Conclusions from breakout session 2

The second breakout session did not run as smoothly as the session in the morning. It became apparent right from the start of the session that only a few of the attendees could fully understand the exercise. The participants still seemed to be trying to use scoring, rather then trying to define a characteristic and recovery time for each flood event as had been proposed. There was also some confusion between the definition of ‘flood event return period’ and the

Section 3: Afternoon session 7 different options being appraised. People were taking the return periods as if they were the options rather than as possible flood events under a no defence situation.

Some of the participants also felt uncomfortable with the naming of a ‘characteristic’ to represent the impact category. The same problem was found for ‘recovery time’. There was concern among some of the attendees that one characteristic only would limit the assessment of the impact category. In fact in group 3, participants thought there was a need to define 3 or 4 characteristics for each impact category, and this was after the category itself was divided into many subcategories. In this case, it was almost impossible to convey to the participants the need to focus on one characteristic that reflects the critical element for measuring the difference between the options. There was also some concern in relation to the definition of recovery times. For example, for the historical environment, the fact that an important site or monument might never fully recover from the flood, created some problems when defining a recovery time.

After some discussion it was considered that the word ‘vulnerability’ may be a more appropriate name for recovery time, whilst for ‘characteristic’ there was no obvious conclusion.

It is believed that for the participants to truly understand the concepts behind the ChaRT system they needed some familiarity with the tools and concepts used in current project appraisal such as the guidance provided by FCDPAG 3 and its spreadsheets, the concepts of annual average damage, flood return period and probability.

For these reasons, the scoring approaches used in the morning seemed more acceptable in the sense that they were easy to understand and better reflected the uncertainty attached to the scores. There was concern that with ChaRT a number (being a characteristic or recovery time) was trying to be attached to the impact category at any cost, in the same way that CBA always tries to value those impacts that are not easily valued.

It was interesting to note that, for those people with some direct experience of dealing with flood and coastal defence appraisals, the concepts proposed for the ChaRT system were less of a concern and in general the system was accepted as a viable option, in particular because it reflected a more risk based approach to the whole process.

At the end of the second breakout session Teresa Fenn demonstrated briefly how the results for the characteristics and recovery times for the four impact categories could be introduced in the ‘ChaRT spreadsheets’ and the scores calculated from these.

8 Section 3: Afternoon session 4. Conclusions from the workshop

The workshop was successful in highlighting the problems that surround the different scoring approaches. However, it did not give a clear indication of which approach is the preferred one and should be carried forward.

There are three possible quantitative scoring approaches:

• the ‘zero to 100’ scoring system; • the ‘ChaRT’ scoring approach, in particular for the strategy level of appraisal1; and • the ‘scoring by committee’ approach.

It is believed that at this stage it would be better to go forward with all three scoring methodologies, being aware of their advantages and disadvantages, and leave the decision about which scoring systems should be used until after they have been trialled in pilot projects. Only when trying different scoring systems in real time situations, with those applying them fully aware of all the flood and coastal issues and concepts, can one system or combination of systems be recommended.

1 Although this may need to be modified in order to take into consideration ‘vulnerability’ instead of ‘recoverability’ into account.

Section 4: Conclusions from the workshop 9 Appendix C1.1:

Breakout session groups’ composition

10 Appendix C1.1 Workshop on approaches to scoring in the context of the multi- criteria analysis component of economic appraisal for flood and coastal erosion risk management

Groups for breakout sessions

Group 1 (Meg Postle) Kevin Andrews (Defra – Economics) Keith Cole (West Dorset District Council) David Murphy (EA – CFMP) Colin Foan (EA – Forecasting) Mikael Down (HM Treasury) Katie Prebble (Black & Veatch)

Group 2 (Teresa Fenn) David Richardson (Defra - FM) Liz Galloway (EA – EIA) Alison Atkinson (Halcrow – SMP) Roger Morris (English Nature) Peter Brooks (Canterbury City Council)

Group 3 (Susana Dias) Matt Crossman (Defra – FM) Paula Orr (EA – Social Policy) Trevor Linford (EA – CFMP) Stuart Pasley (Countryside Agency) David Southcott (Arun District Council) Jackie Leslie (WS Atkins) Steve Wade (HR Wallingford – Sustainable Flood and Coastal Defence)

Group 4 (John Ash) Bernard Ayling (EA – FM) John Corkindale (EA) Sue Reed (EA – EIA) Ron Eckersley (Lancaster District Council) Paul Sayers (HR Wallingford – CFMP) Colin Green (FHRC)

Appendix C1.1 11 Appendix C1.2:

Handouts for breakout session 1

12 Appendix C1.2 Breakout session 1:

Groups 1 & 3

Applying the ‘Zero to 100’ quantitative scoring approach

Task

Using the 0 to 100 scoring system, the first task is to score the Humber Estuary Case Study (Management Unit 6) based on the qualitative and quantitative information provided in the Appraisal Summary Table (AST). The scoring will be applied to four impact categories, two representing environmental issues (‘physical habitats’ and ‘historical environment’) and two representing social issues (‘equity’ and ‘sense of community’).

A Scoring AST is provided for you to record the scores and the justifications for the scores given.

Points for discussion

Once the scoring is finished, consider the following points:

• Is the scoring based on objective information? • Is double counting avoided? • Does the system allow for small and large difference to be reflected in the scores? • Does the approach reflect proportionality of impacts? • Does the approach take account of the uncertainty in the scoring? • Are the scores based on same/similar information as used to estimate the monetary damages (and benefits) (i.e., risk of flooding, flood damages and probability)? • Does it ensure transparency and stakeholder acceptability?

Appendix C1.2 13 Breakout session 1:

Groups 2 & 4

Applying the ‘100 relative’ quantitative scoring approach

Task

Using the 100 relative scoring system, the first task is to score the Humber Estuary Case Study (Management Unit 6) based on the qualitative and quantitative information provided in the Appraisal Summary Table (AST). The scoring will be applied to four impact categories, two representing environmental issues (‘physical habitats’ and ‘historical environment’) and two representing social issues (‘equity’ and ‘sense of community’).

A Scoring AST is provided for you to record the scores and the justifications for the scores given.

Points for discussion

Once the scoring is finished, consider the following points:

Background Information

The ‘100 relative’ scoring approach:

In the ‘100 relative’ scoring system the best performing option is given a score of 100. All other options are then scored relative to the best performing option such that the worst performing option is not fixed at a score of zero.

14 Appendix C1.2 Summary of the project area:

Management Unit 6 of the Humber Estuary Case Study runs from South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme and is mainly comprised of medium grade agricultural land for up to 3km inland. The main settlement in the area is Barton-upon- Humber. Clay pits immediately behind the defences between Chowder Ness and New Holland are important environmental and recreation sites, with some designated for their environmental value. There are also a number of small industrial areas, including New Holland Dock. The area is categorised as Land Use Band C, with an indicative standard of 1:10 to 1:1002.

Existing defences

About half of the defences between South Ferriby and New Holland Dock provide protection against a 1 in 50 year event. Around Barton Creek, some lengths of the defences give significantly lower standards. East of New Holland Dock, around 70% of the defences protect against an event with a return period of 1 in 20 years. In 50 years, the standard of defence is expected to fall such that about 50% of the defences will no longer protect against a 1 in 10 year event. The overall condition of the defences is fair to good. There is concern that erosion of mudflats may threaten the stability of the defences. There are also some lengths where the crest level of the embankment is low.

The ‘do-nothing’ option

The ‘do-nothing’ option assumes that there will be a breach in the defences by year 10, with a current probability of breaching of 0.1. A breach would result in inundation of much of the area, such that 1,615 residential properties, 100 non- residential properties and 1,085 ha of agricultural land would be written off. Sea level rise would result in the number of properties written off by year 99 increasing to 1,730 residential properties, 103 non-residential properties and 1,221 ha of agricultural land. Around the area written-off, there are additional residential and non-residential properties, and agricultural land that would face intermittent flooding and, hence, damages.

Geography of the area

Management Unit 6 is very flat, such that a large area is flooded on all flood events. Modelling of the area shows that the following proportions of the management unit would be flooded under different return period events:

2 According to the Flood and Coastal Defence Project Appraisal Guidance (FCDPAG 3), indicative standards for flood and coastal defence are provided for five different land use bands (A to E) as an aid to authorities to help in establishing the range of options to be considered in the appraisal. Land use band C corresponds to typically large areas of high- grade agricultural land and/or environmental assets of national significance requiring protection with some properties also at risk, including caravans and temporary structures.

Appendix C1.2 15 • 1 in 5: 63% of the management unit would be flooded; • 1 in 10: 67% of the management unit would be flooded; • 1 in 20: 75% of the management unit would be flooded; • 1 in 50: 93% of the management unit would be flooded; • 1 in 100: 95% of the management unit would be flooded; and • 1 in 500: 95% of the management unit would be flooded.

The main population centre, Barton-upon-Humber, is generally very low lying such that most of the town would be flooded on a 1 in 20 year event. Other villages are positioned on hilltops so are less vulnerable to flooding, except on the more extreme events. Recent census data has found that the population of the management unit is around 4,000 people, with approximately 2.4 people per household.

Important environmental and heritage sites are all located near to the frontage and are likely to be affected on all events greater than 1 in 3 years. This is especially true of the Barton and Barrow Clay Pits, which are located immediately behind the flood defences. Important archaeological sites are also located close to the defences, reflecting the important maritime history of the area.

16 Appendix C1.2 pedxC.:Hnot o raotssin1 1 17 Appendix C1.3:Handouts for breakout session1 Table 1 Appraisal summary table for the Humber Estuary - management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme)

Maintain 1:20 (decreasing Impact category ‘Do-nothing’ Sustain 1:20 Improve 1:50 Improve 1:100 to 1:5 in year 99)

Environmental impacts Loss of 8 SNCIs, 6 Physical 8 SNCIs, 6 Wildlife Trust sites 8 SNCIs, 6 Wildlife Trust 8 SNCIs, 6 Wildlife Trust 8 SNCIs, 6 Wildlife Trust Wildlife Trust sites habitats and 1 landward SSSI (Barton sites and 1 landward sites and 1 landward sites and 1 landward and landward Clay Pits, approximately 50 SSSI (Barton Clay Pits, SSSI (Barton Clay Pits, SSSI (Barton Clay Pits, SSSI/SPA/Ramsar ha) would be protected but approximately 50 ha) approximately 50 ha) approximately 50 ha) site (Barton and flooded on a fairly frequent would be protected but would be protected to a would be protected to a Barrow Clay Pits). basis. (1 in 20 reducing to 1 in flooded on average once 1 in 50 year standard. 1 in 100 year standard. 5 year standard). every 20 years. This is Development of new Loss of intertidal habitat Loss of intertidal habitat likely to be sufficiently intertidal habitat will Loss of intertidal habitat as a as a result of coastal as a result of coastal infrequent to allow maintain conservation result of coastal squeeze and squeeze and flood squeeze and flood recovery of freshwater status of the estuary. flood defence works defence works defence works habitats. encroaching on the foreshore encroaching on the encroaching on the will result in loss of 60ha, Loss of intertidal habitat foreshore will result in foreshore will result in which will require replacing. as a result of coastal loss of 60ha, which will loss of 60ha, which will squeeze and flood require replacing. Also if require replacing. Also if Flooding of some areas with a defence works this option is shown to this option is shown to frequency of 1 in 5 years may encroaching on the have an adverse impact have an adverse impact encourage localised foreshore will result in on the integrity of the on the integrity of the development of saltmarsh loss of 60ha which will SPA it will be necessary SPA it will be necessary where freshwater habitats require replacing. to prove that there are to prove that there are cannot recover before no alternatives to this no alternatives to this flooding recurs. Such areas option. option. are likely to be very localised, however, and are not expected to exceed 5ha 18 Appendix C1.3:Handouts forbreakoutsession 1 18 Table 1 Appraisal summary table for the Humber Estuary - management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme)

Maintain 1:20 (decreasing ‘Do-nothing’ Sustain 1:20 Improve 1:50 Improve 1:100 Impact category to 1:5 in year 99)

Historical Loss of areas of high The Scheduled Ancient The Scheduled Ancient The Scheduled Ancient The Scheduled Ancient environment archaeological Monument and listed Monument and listed Monument and listed Monument and listed potential, 1 buildings will be protected but buildings will be buildings will be buildings will be Scheduled Ancient will still be flooded on a protected but will still be protected to a high protected to a high Monument and 5 regular basis. The flooded on average once standard (1 in 50 years). standard (1 in 100 listed buildings. archaeological potential of the every 20 years. This The archaeological years). The area is likely to be may require on-going potential of the area will archaeological potential significantly affected, with maintenance works to be secured. of the area will be potential loss of sites before avoid deterioration of the secured. they are discovered/ building structure. excavated. The archaeological potential of the area may be affected by repeated flooding. pedxC.:Hnot o raotssin 9 19 Appendix C1.3:Handouts for breakout session1

Maintain 1:20 (decreasing ‘Do-nothing’ Sustain 1:20 Improve 1:50 Improve 1:100 Impact category to 1:5 in year 99)

Social impacts

Equity Impacts on area with Frequent flooding may affect Flooding on average once Area likely to retain Area likely to retain deprivation index of agriculture and industry and every 20 years is unlikely to current or improved current or improved 3,556 (neither affluent affect workforce who may not affect most people. Some status with protection status with protection nor deprived). 95% of be in a position to move jobs groups may be afforded to all afforded to all members the area likely to be or house. disadvantaged more than members of society. of society. abandoned with people others where larger The movement of services to moving elsewhere with companies decide to move higher ground may make loss of property, out of the area to protect them less accessible to some livelihood and their investments move to groups and may increase community. higher ground. their vulnerability. More than 4,000 people likely to be affected, of which 4% are unemployed, 5% are permanently disabled and 16% retired.

Sense of The loss of properties Sense of community could be Most homeowners would be Sense of community Sense of community community and jobs will result in an significantly affected with unaffected by flooding once would be largely would be unaffected almost complete loss of many homeowners and every 20 years. If larger unaffected with most with most homeowners sense of community with businesses being flooded companies move out of the homeowners and and businesses not most people moving out during their time in any one area, this may force some businesses not being being flooded during of the area. property. Those who are able employees to move with the flooded during their their time in any one Approximately 1730 to move out of the area may companies but should have time in any one property. properties will be written- wish to do so, dividing the only a minor effect on property. off. community. sense of community. 20 Appendix C1.3:Handouts for breakout session 1 20 Table 2: Scoring summary table Maintain Do- 1:20 Sustain Improve Category Improve 1:100 Justification nothing (decreasing 1:20 1:50 to 1:5) Environmental impacts

Physical

habitats

Historical Environment pedxC.:Hnot o raotssin 2 21 Appendix C1.3:Handouts for breakout session 1 Table 2: Scoring summary table Maintain Do- 1:20 Sustain Improve Category Improve 1:100 Justification nothing (decreasing 1:20 1:50 to 1:5) Social Impacts

Equity

Sense of

community Appendix C1.3:

Handouts for breakout session 2

22 Appendix C1.3 Breakout session:

Groups 1, 2, 3 & 4

Identifying characteristics and recovery times

Task:

Taking into consideration the background information and the conclusions from the scoring exercise preformed in the morning:

• identify the most appropriate characteristics of the category that is affected by flooding; and • identify recovery time of that characteristic for each of the options being considered.

For this task use the characteristic and recovery time Tables provided.

Points for discussion

Once the scoring is finished, consider the following points:

• Is the scoring based on objective information? • Is double counting avoided? • Does the system allow for small and large difference to be reflected in the scores? • Does the approach reflect proportionality of impacts? • Does the approach take account of the uncertainty in the scoring? • Are the scores based on same/similar information as used to estimate the monetary damages (and benefits) (i.e., risk of flooding, flood damages and probability)? And • Does it ensure transparency and stakeholder acceptability?

Appendix C1.3 23 Background information:

The aim of the ChaRT scoring system is to reflect the impacts of a flood on each category, with the scores calculated numerically using a more flood- focussed basis.

For each impact category, it is necessary to determine two factors in order to be able to assign a score:

• characteristic of the category that is affected by flooding, i.e. a measure of the amount of a particular category affected and could relate to an area, a number, etc.; and • recovery time of that characteristic, which is defined as the minimum time required between events for impacts on that category to be reduced to zero. From this definition, it can be deduced that if a flood occurs before there has been time for full recovery, the impacts of an option would be much greater than if the next flood event occurs several years after full recovery has been achieved.

Once these two factors have been identified (or estimated), the scores can be calculated automatically using the same approach as is used in the Asset AAD worksheet of the FCDPAG 3 spreadsheets

24 Appendix C1.3 Table 3 Characteristic summary table - management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme

Return periods of flood events Details of Impact category 3 5 10 20 50 100 300 500 CHARACTERISTICS

Environmental impacts

Physical habitats

Historical environment

Social impacts

Equity

Sense of community

Appendix C1.3 25 Table 3 Recovery times summary table - management unit 6 (South Ferriby Cliff to North Killingholme

Return periods of flood events Details of Impact category 3 5 10 20 50 100 300 500 RECOVERY TIMES

Environmental impacts

Physical habitats

Historical environment

Social impacts

Equity

Sense of community

26 Appendix C1.3