The Switch in Time That Saved Nine: the Supreme Court's Conflict And
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In Defence of the Court's Integrity
In Defence of the Court’s Integrity 17 In Defence of the Court’s Integrity: The Role of Chief Justice Charles Evans Hughes in the Defeat of the Court-Packing Plan of 1937 Ryan Coates Honours, Durham University ‘No greater mistake can be made than to think that our institutions are fixed or may not be changed for the worse. We are a young nation and nothing can be taken for granted. If our institutions are maintained in their integrity, and if change shall mean improvement, it will be because the intelligent and the worthy constantly generate the motive power which, distributed over a thousand lines of communication, develops that appreciation of the standards of decency and justice which we have delighted to call the common sense of the American people.’ Hughes in 1909 ‘Our institutions were not designed to bring about uniformity of opinion; if they had been, we might well abandon hope.’ Hughes in 1925 ‘While what I am about to say would ordinarily be held in confidence, I feel that I am justified in revealing it in defence of the Court’s integrity.’ Hughes in the 1940s In early 1927, ten years before his intervention against the court-packing plan, Charles Evans Hughes, former Governor of New York, former Republican presidential candidate, former Secretary of State, and most significantly, former Associate Justice of the Supreme Court, delivered a series 18 history in the making vol. 3 no. 2 of lectures at his alma mater, Columbia University, on the subject of the Supreme Court.1 These lectures were published the following year as The Supreme Court: Its Foundation, Methods and Achievements (New York: Columbia University Press, 1928). -
Is Japan 'Back'?
IS JAPAN ‘BACK’? Japan Society of Northern California/Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, May 9th 2013 SOME PRELMINARY OBSERVATIONS SOME PRELMINARY “It is the one sphere of life and activity where victory, security and success is always to the minority and never to the majority. When you find any one agreeing with you, change your mind.” Keynes, speaking of Investment, 1937 5/8/2013 2 SUMMARY o Causes of Japan’s “Lost Decades” o First – Strategic irrelevance post-1989 o Second – early ‘90s headwinds strong in proportion to the size of the bubble o Third - 1997-2012- persistent macro-economic policy mistakes. o No insuperable “structural problems o Last headwinds dropped to nothing in 2009 o Senkaku spat marks Japan’s recovery of a strategic role o “Abe-nomics” represents reversal of the mistakes of 1997-2012 o Anyway, monetary policy has actually been loose since 3/11 o Deflation may already be over o PM Abe may just be “in the right place at the right time” o Both the initial, long period of error and its reversal echo the ‘30s. 5/8/2013 3 WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED? Is Real Life lived in Real or Nominal Numbers? Year Nominal GDP Population Nominal GDP/head Real GDP Real GDP/head (Y mil) (Thou) (Y mil) (Y mil) (Y mil) 1995 501,707 125,570 4.00 455,460 3.63 2000 509,860 126,926 4.02 474,847 3.74 2005 503,903 127,768 3.94 503,921 3.94 2010 482,384 128,057 3.77 512,364 4.00 2011 470,623 127,799 3.68 509,450 3.99 Period Nominal GDP per Capita Real GDP per Capita Change 1995-2011 -7.8% 9.9% 2000-2011 -8.3% 6.6% Note: GDP for Fiscal Years, Seasonally -
October 19, 1987 – Black Monday, 20 Years Later BACKGROUND
October 19, 1987 – Black Monday, 20 Years Later BACKGROUND On Oct. 19, 1987, “Black Monday,” the DJIA fell 507.99 (508) points to 1,738.74, a drop of 22.6% or $500 billion dollars of its value-- the largest single-day percentage drop in history. Volume surges to a then record of 604 million shares. Two days later, the DJIA recovered 289 points or 16.6% of its loss. It took two years for the DJIA to fully recover its losses, setting the stage for the longest bull market in U.S. history. Date Close Change Change % 10/19/87 1,738.70 -508.00 -22.6 10/20/87 1,841.00 102.30 5.9 10/21/87 2,027.90 186.90 10.2 Quick Facts on October 11, 1987 • DJIA fell 507.99 points to 1,738.74, a 22.6% drop (DJIA had opened at 2246.74 that day) o Record decline at that time o Friday, Oct. 16, DJIA fell 108 points, completing a 9.5 percent drop for the week o Aug. 1987, DJIA reached 2722.42, an all-time high; up 48% over prior 10 months o Today, DJIA above 14,000 • John Phelan, NYSE Chairman/CEO -- Credited with effective management of the crisis. A 23-year veteran of the trading floor, he became NYSE president in 1980 and chairman and chief executive officer in 1984, serving until 1990 NYSE Statistics (1987, then vs. now) 1987 Today (and current records) ADV - ytd 1987 (thru 10/19): 181.5 mil ADV – 1.76 billion shares (NYSE only) shares 10/19/1987: 604.3 million shares (reference ADV above) 10/20/1987: 608.1* million shares (reference ADV above) Oct. -
The Impartiality Paradox
The Impartiality Paradox Melissa E. Loewenstemt The constitutional principles that bind our free society instruct that the American people must "hold the judgeship in the highest esteem, that they re- gard it as the symbol of impartial, fair, and equal justice under law."'1 Accord- ingly, in contrast with the political branches, the Supreme Court's decisions "are legitimate only when [the Court] seeks to dissociate itself from individual 2 or group interests, and to judge by disinterested and more objective standards." As Justice Frankfurter said, "justice must satisfy the appearance of justice. 3 Almost instinctively, once a President appoints a judge to sit on the Su- preme Court,4 the public earmarks the Justice as an incarnation of impartiality, neutrality, and trustworthiness. Not surprisingly then, Presidents have looked to the Court for appointments to high profile and important committees of national concern. 5 It is among members of the judiciary that a President can find individuals certain to obtain the immediate respect of the American people, and often the world community. It is a judge's neutrality, fair-mindedness, and integrity that once again label him a person of impartiality and fairness, a per- son who seeks justice, and a President's first choice to serve the nation. The characteristics that led to a judge's initial appointment under our adversary sys- tem, and which lend themselves to appearances of propriety and justice in our courts, often carry over into extrajudicial activities as well. As Ralph K. Winter, Jr., then a professor at the Yale Law School, stated: [t]he appointment of a Justice of the Supreme Court to head a governmental com- mission or inquiry usually occurs because of the existence of a highly controversial issue which calls for some kind of official or authoritative resolution ....And the use of Supreme Court Justices, experience shows, is generally prompted by a presi- t Yale Law School, J.D. -
Regime Change Q2 2018 COMMENTARY
Chief Market Strategist, Dr. Quincy Krosby Prudential Financial Regime Change Q2 2018 COMMENTARY The second quarter— Highlights which statistically • Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell takes the helm is not the most • A brief history of recent regime changes at the Federal Reserve • The market enters a period of crosscurrents hospitable in terms of returns—should enjoy Q2 OPENING BELL solid growth here The term “regime change” is currently trending in the headlines, from “More expect Venezuela will collapse and have regime change within 12 months” to “Pushing back against Iran: Is it time and abroad; solid, if for regime change?” As we enter the second quarter of 2018, however, the term is increasingly not stellar, earnings; used to describe a subtle but equally important shift in economic policy. Monetary policy stands out as a significant economic catalyst, and with the departure of Federal Reserve Chair Janet the fiscal stimulus Yellen, we’ve seen headlines blare: “How to survive the regime change in markets.” beginning to filter into Referring to February’s market correction, triggered by fears that inflation was beginning to assert itself, the Financial Times succinctly stated: “Whether correction turns into regime the real economy; and change is down to the Fed.” But do members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) a Federal Reserve of the Federal Reserve view their job as protectors of stock market performance, the way they seemingly did coming out of the financial crisis? that wants to maintain Newly installed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, greeted on his first official day with a 4 percent the “middle ground” market sell-off, appeared upbeat about prospects for the economy. -
The Rehnquist Court and Beyond: Revolution, Counter-Revolution, Or Mere Chastening of Constitutional Aspirations?
THE REHNQUIST COURT AND BEYOND: REVOLUTION, COUNTER-REVOLUTION, OR MERE CHASTENING OF CONSTITUTIONAL ASPIRATIONS? THE PROCESSES OF CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE: FROM PARTISAN ENTRENCHMENT TO THE NATIONAL SURVEILLANCE STATE Jack M. Balkin & Sanford Levinson* I. INTRODUCTION: PARTISAN ENTRENCHMENT Five years ago, we offered a theory of how constitutional change and constitutional revolutions occurred, which we called the theory of “partisan entrenchment.”1 Much has happened in the subsequent half-decade, and we are grateful for this opportunity to offer an update of our thoughts, together with some amendments to our initial formulation. By far the most important amendment is to draw out in more detail how the development of constitutional doctrine by courts occurs within the broader framework of changes in constitutional regimes, which include changes in institutions, legislation, and administrative regulation. The forces of democratic politics drive these regime changes, and the major actors are not courts but the political branches. Although courts may initially resist these changes, in the long run, they cooperate with them, shape their contours, and legitimate them through the development of constitutional doctrine. In the second half of this essay, we describe an emerging regime of institutions and practices that we call the “National Surveillance State,” which, we think, represents the major constitutional development of our era. The National Surveillance State responds to the particular needs of warfare, foreign policy, and domestic law enforcement in the twenty-first century. That such a state is emerging has become clear in the wake of 9/11 and debates about the War on Terror. However, it is not limited to the * Knight Professor of Constitutional Law and the First Amendment, Yale Law School. -
The Federal Reserve's Response to the 1987 Market Crash
PRELIMINARY YPFS DISCUSSION DRAFT | MARCH 2020 The Federal Reserve’s Response to the 1987 Market Crash Kaleb B Nygaard1 March 20, 2020 Abstract The S&P500 lost 10% the week ending Friday, October 16, 1987 and lost an additional 20% the following Monday, October 19, 1987. The date would be remembered as Black Monday. The Federal Reserve responded to the crash in four distinct ways: (1) issuing a public statement promising to provide liquidity as needed, “to support the economic and financial system,” (2) providing support to the Treasury Securities market by injecting in-high- demand maturities into the market via reverse repurchase agreements, (3) allowing the Federal Funds Rate to fall from 7.5% to 7.0%, and (4) intervening directly to allow the rescue of the largest options clearing firm in Chicago. Keywords: Federal Reserve, stock market crash, 1987, Black Monday, market liquidity 1 Research Associate, New Bagehot Project. Yale Program on Financial Stability. [email protected]. PRELIMINARY YPFS DISCUSSION DRAFT | MARCH 2020 The Federal Reserve’s Response to the 1987 Market Crash At a Glance Summary of Key Terms The S&P500 lost 10% the week ending Friday, Purpose: The measure had the “aim of ensuring October 16, 1987 and lost an additional 20% the stability in financial markets as well as facilitating following Monday, October 19, 1987. The date would corporate financing by conducting appropriate be remembered as Black Monday. money market operations.” Introduction Date October 19, 1987 The Federal Reserve responded to the crash in four Operational Date Tuesday, October 20, 1987 distinct ways: (1) issuing a public statement promising to provide liquidity as needed, “to support the economic and financial system,” (2) providing support to the Treasury Securities market by injecting in-high-demand maturities into the market via reverse repurchase agreements, (3) allowing the Federal Funds Rate to fall from 7.5% to 7.0%, and (4) intervening directly to allow the rescue of the largest options clearing firm in Chicago. -
Comprehensive Examinations: a List of Historical Events, Figures, Concepts, and Terms
Comprehensive Examinations: A List of Historical Events, Figures, Concepts, and Terms Ems Telegram Gulag Archipelago Franco-Prussian War Kellogg Briand Pact Dual Alliance Non-aggression pacts Zollverein Third International Bismarck Dismissed Comintern Entente Cordiale, Russia, France Spanish Civil War Spanish-American War Popular Front Panama Canal Construction Francisco Franco Russo-Japanese War Benito Mussolini Balkan Wars Treaty of Rapallo Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand Fascism Schlieffen Plan Weimar Republic Triple Entente Munich Putsch (Beer Hall Putsch) Triple Alliance Mein Kampf First Battle of the Marne Locarno Conference and Treaties Verdun Wall Street Crash (Black Monday) Lusitania Smoot Hawley Tariff Wilson declares war Hitler becomes chancellor Armistice Day National Socialist German Workers Party (Nazi Treaty of Versailles Party) Senate rejects Versailles Treaty Night of the Long Knives Fourteen Points Maginot Line League of Nations Remilitarization of the Rhineland Alsace Lorraine Washington Naval Treaty David Lloyd George London Naval Treaty Georges Clemenceau Open Door Policy Ferdinand Foch Manchukuo Erich von Ludendorff Japanese occupation of Manchuria Kaiser Wilhelm (William II) Kuomintang Balfour Declaration Sun Yat-Sen Provisional Government (Russia) Chiang K’ai-Shek Petrograd Soviet Neutrality Act Bolshevik Revolution Holocaust Vladimir Lenin Adolf Hitler Leon Trotsky Joseph Goebbels Joseph Stalin Munich Conference and Agreement Feliks Dzherzhinky Neville Chamberlain Cheka Appeasement Third International -
Master Pages
Master Pages 15 • Be Careful With My Court Legitimacy, Public Opinion, and the Chief Justices SHAWN C. FETTIG AND SARA C. BENESH On June 28, 2012, the Supreme Court announced its decision in National Federation of Independent Business et al. v. Sebelius, Secretary of Health and Human Services et al., upholding the Affordable Care Act by a vote of 5-4. Chief Justice John Roberts read his majority opinion. Almost immediately, political scientists and pundits alike began dissecting the opinion and the reason for Chief Justice Roberts’s vote. Public approval of the Court, as noted by the media, was at its lowest levels ever as the Court prepared to hear the case.1 Many argued that the Court’s legitimacy weighed heavily on Roberts as he considered the case, with CBS News reporting that Roberts, as chief justice, “is keenly aware of his leadership role on the court, and he also is sensitive to how the court is perceived by the public.”2 “To be sure,” wrote New York Times reporter Adam Liptak, “the chief justice considers himself the custodian of the Supreme Court’s prestige, authority, and le- gitimacy, and he is often its voice in major cases.”3 He reprised the role in King v. Burwell, the 6- 3 decision announced almost exactly one year later upholding the subsidies associated with the health care exchanges.4 There, Rosen argued, the chief used the case’s reason to confer legitimacy. Judicial restraint, Rosen suggests, drove the chief’s decision, for “In a polarized age, it is important for the Supreme Court to maintain its institutional legiti- macy by deferring to the political branches.”5 We know that the Court is influenced by public opinion and the Court’s decisions are often in line with it.6 We also know that judicial legitimacy is fairly widespread and relatively stable,7 and that it is drawn from diffuse 374 Ward.indd 374 2/12/2016 2:30:33 PM Master Pages Be Careful With My Court • 375 support, a “reservoir of good will,”8 that is resilient and resistant to signifi- cant fluctuation. -
The Political Process, Equal Protection, and Substantive Due Process
ARTICLES THE POLITICAL PROCESS, EQUAL PROTECTION, AND SUBSTANTIVE DUE PROCESS Jesse H. Choper* Stephen F. Ross** ABSTRACT In its landmark decision in Carolene Products, the Supreme Court crafted a uniquely American solution to the counter-majoritarian dilemma present in any constitutional democracy: when unelected judges should substantively review policy choices made by elected legislators and executives. The political process theory underlying that decision is that a court with a history of decisions based on judicial ideology should limit close review of government actions to three situations: (1) when the action contravenes a specific provision of the Bill of Rights, (2) when the action threatens to improperly limit the political process, or (3) with regard to the broadly worded Due Process and Equal Protection Clauses, when courts determine that the political process does not work normally. The Supreme Court has not faithfully implemented this approach over the years. However, neither Justices nor commentators have developed a superior alternative approach. We believe that most Americans ought to prefer a return to Carolene Products, as superior (either philosophically or because of risk aversion) to leaving important constitutional precedents subject to the vagaries of highly partisan politics. Our approach builds upon insights of Justices Harlan Fiske Stone, Robert Jackson, and Thurgood Marshall. First, courts should consider challenges initially under the Equal Protection Clause. Second, the category of cases warranting heightened judicial scrutiny should be expanded to include those in which claimants can prove that they are excluded from the Madisonian factional “wheeling and dealing” that characterizes ordinary politics. Third, substantive due process claims should remain available, but only where claimants can demonstrate that animus or prejudice precludes their ability to use the political process to redress their grievances. -
Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk
Volatility and the Alchemy of Risk Reflexivity in the Shadows of Black Monday 1987 Christopher Cole The Ouroboros, a Greek word meaning ‘tail debt expansion, asset volatility, and financial Artemis Capital Managment devourer’, is the ancient symbol of a snake engineering that allocates risk based on that consuming its own body in perfect symmetry. volatility. In this self-reflexive loop volatility The imagery of the Ouroboros evokes the can reinforce itself both lower and higher. In infinite nature of creation from destruction. The a market where stocks and bonds are both sign appears across cultures and is an important overvalued, financial alchemy is the only way to icon in the esoteric tradition of Alchemy. feed our global hunger for yield, until it kills the Egyptian mystics first derived the symbol very system it is nourishing. from a real phenomenon in nature. In extreme The Global Short Volatility trade now heat a snake, unable to self-regulate its body represents an estimated $2+ trillion in financial temperature, will experience an out-of-control engineering strategies that simultaneously exert spike in its metabolism. In a state of mania, the influence over, and are influenced by, stock snake is unable to differentiate its own tail from market volatility.2 We broadly define the short its prey, and will attack itself, self-cannibalizing volatility trade as any financial strategy that until it perishes. In nature and markets, when relies on the assumption of market stability to randomness self-organizes into too perfect generate returns, while using volatility itself symmetry, order becomes the source of chaos.1 as an input for risk taking. -
Bush Cuts Funding by $16.1 Billion Apartheid: an Insider's View Dow Average Rises in Heaviest Trading Since
The Daily Campus Serving the Storrs Community Since 1896 Vol. XCIII No. 27 The University of Connecticut Tuesday, October 17, 1989 Bush cuts funding Apartheid: An insider's view By Veronica Korn by $16.1 billion Daily Campus Staff WASHINGTON (AP) — President Bush signed an order Monday Claims by the South African night cutting federal programs by SI6.1 billion after giving up government that economic hopes for a last-minute compromise with Congress. sanctions and corporate divest- "It's the law. We're ready to implement it," said White House ment in that country threaten press secretary Marlin Fitzwater. He said that, while the black employment op- administration had sought to avoid the almost across-the-board cuts portunities are only propa- triggered by the nation's Gramm-Rudman budget-cutting law, "it ganda, said former South might even be good" if the budget ax does fall. African newspaper editor and The order Bush signed shortly before 7 p.m., to take effect at author Donald Woods. midnight, was largely procedural as the spending cuts were auto- Woods told the audience last matic under the law. night in von dcr Mchdcn "We'll continue to work with the Congress" in seeking to de- Recital Hall that sanctions de- velop a compromise to reduce the deficit to roll back the spending prive the conservative govern- cuts, Fitzwater said. "But there is some feeling here that (the auto- ment of tax revenue and harm matic cuts) are the way to go. It will reduce spending in a very ef- only the approximately one fective fashion." percent of blacks employed by "Everyone's going to have to take in their belts," he addcd."It American and foreign-based will have a hit, there's no doubt about it." corporations in South Africa.