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Archived Content Contenu Archivé ARCHIVED - Archiving Content ARCHIVÉE - Contenu archivé Archived Content Contenu archivé Information identified as archived is provided for L’information dont il est indiqué qu’elle est archivée reference, research or recordkeeping purposes. It est fournie à des fins de référence, de recherche is not subject to the Government of Canada Web ou de tenue de documents. Elle n’est pas Standards and has not been altered or updated assujettie aux normes Web du gouvernement du since it was archived. Please contact us to request Canada et elle n’a pas été modifiée ou mise à jour a format other than those available. depuis son archivage. Pour obtenir cette information dans un autre format, veuillez communiquer avec nous. This document is archival in nature and is intended Le présent document a une valeur archivistique et for those who wish to consult archival documents fait partie des documents d’archives rendus made available from the collection of Public Safety disponibles par Sécurité publique Canada à ceux Canada. qui souhaitent consulter ces documents issus de sa collection. Some of these documents are available in only one official language. Translation, to be provided Certains de ces documents ne sont disponibles by Public Safety Canada, is available upon que dans une langue officielle. Sécurité publique request. Canada fournira une traduction sur demande. WorkingWorking paper paper October 2013 >Issue 2 Cost-Benefit Analysis of The terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001 highlighted the vulnerabilities of Australian Federal Police airports and aircraft. Further attacks Counter-Terrorism Operations at in 2002, 2007 and 2009, have led Australian Airports to major government reforms in passenger processing and airport Professor Mark G. Stewart and Professor John Mueller access. The security of Australian 1. INTRODUCTION airports has also followed this trend, with an increased police presence. Much research on aviation security focuses on airplanes due no doubt to the events However, limited consideration has of September 11 2001 and to the more recent attempts to bomb U.S. bound flights in 2002, 2006 and 2009. However, Elias (2010) notes that an airport has ‘unique been given to the costs of these vulnerabilities because it is unsecured’. There is little information about whether airport measures, compared to benefit. This security satisfies a cost-benefit assessment, or how airport policing can be made more Working Paper identifies the factors effective. The Australian Office of Best Practice Regulation, U.S. Office of Management and Budget, and other regulatory agencies strongly recommend risk and cost-benefit to be considered in such cost-benefit assessments of major programmes. A risk and cost-benefit assessment quantifies analyses and the authors outline risk reduction of security measures, losses from a successful attack, threat likelihood, probability that attack is successful, and cost of security measures. This allows costs their preliminary findings. The scope and benefits of security measures to be compared and optimal security measures to for further research is highlighted, be selected. This Working Paper seeks to assess the risks and cost-effectiveness of particularly in relation to risk analysis Australian Federal Police (AFP) airport counter-terrorism (CT) policing designed to protect airport terminals and aircraft from terrorist attack. and cost. Note that the results presented herein are preliminary, and based on our ‘best estimates’ using publicly sourced material. Thus all data should be seen as illustrative rather than definitive, and are used as a ‘proof-of-concept’ of how a risk and cost- benefit analysis can be applied to the challenging area of policing resource allocation. Dr Ruth Delaforce 2. AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL POLICE AND AVIATION SECURITY Editor CEPS Adjunct Fellow The AFP has primary responsibility for policing and security at Australia’s 10 major airports, namely Cairns, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne, Hobart, Adelaide, Perth, and Darwin. The 2009 Beale Review describes the full complement of operational uniformed and non-uniformed Unified Policing Model staffing as at 29 May 2009 (see Table 1). AFP airport CT policing is designed to protect airport terminals and aircraft from terrorist attack. The number of AFP or state police at airports with the specific task of counter-terrorism (CT) comprises the Counter-Terrorism First Response (CTFR) and 50% of the Joint Airport Intelligence Groups (JAIG) - this totals 460 staff or 59% of police staffing at airports. Working paper Recommendations from both the Aviation White Paper (2010) security deploys 657 AFP officers, then this constitutes 15.8% and the Beale Review (2009) have led the AFP to transition from of the total number of AFP officers - a pro-rata analysis suggests a Unified Policing Model (UPM) to the ‘All-In’ Model of Aviation that aviation security has a budget of approximately $200 million policing and security. The ‘All-In’ model allows the airport per year. This is confirmed by forward estimates for the 2010- uniform police and CFTR to transition into a homogenised, 11 Federal Budget that includes $759.4 million over 4 years for fully-sworn AFP police officer workforce. The Senate Standing continuation of the Unified Policing Model for 11 airports (AG Committee on Legal and Constitutional Affairs hearing on 24 2010, Yates 2010) - or $189.85 million per year. We will round May 2012 noted that, following full implementation of the ‘All- this down to $185 million as a result of the AFP withdrawal from In’ model, the final number of AFP officers would be 657, at an Alice Springs Airport in 2011. estimated direct (salaries) cost of approximately $80 million per year . This does not include the national canine program. It is Following full implementation of the ‘All-In’ model, the final also noted that, in December 2011, the AFP withdrew from Alice number of AFP officers is 657, a reduction from the 2009 estimate Springs Airport. of 780 (see Table 1). It is not clear whether this reduction is equally shared between community and counter-terrorism The cost estimate of $80 million per year also does not policing. We will assume that the proportion of AFP airport include the cost of unsworn staff, and equipment, facilities, policing officers with the specific task of counter-terrorism is depreciation and other operating costs. The AFP’s 2012 budget 50%. The cost of airport CT policing at 10 airports in Australia is is $1.289 billion, its personnel complement being 4,157 AFP and 50% of $185 million, or approximately $90 million per year. protective service officers, and 2,386 unsworn staff. If aviation Description Staffing Airport Police Responsible for the unified command and control of policing at the eleven major 11 Commanders airports. Airport Uniform Perform general policing duties at airports. Their visible presence also contributes 225 Police to crime prevention and deterrence efforts. The UPM draws heavily from state and territory police jurisdictions. Counter-Terrorism Focuses on the deterrence, prevention and response to acts of terrorism and/or 445 and First Response unlawful interference to aircraft (hijacking). Sixty-three CTFR members have also been trained to conduct preliminary bomb assessments. Joint Airport Comprising AFP, State/Territory police and Australian Customs and Border 51 Investigation Protection Service (ACBPS) personnel, target serious and organised crime across Teams the aviation network. Joint Airport Coexist with the JAITs and are jointly staffed by AFP, State/Territory police and 31 Intelligence Groups ACBPS analysts to provide dedicated intelligence support to the UPM. Police Aviation Primary communication conduits between the UPM and the wider aviation indus- 17 Liaison Officers try. These members also provide support to the special processing of dignitaries through airports. TOTAL 780 Note: The Unified Policing Model also includes a national canine program delivering an explosive and firearm detection capability to all designated airports. Regional Rapid Deployment Teams (RRDT), based at Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth, and Sydney, deliver counterterrorism awareness training and other security activities Table 1. Police Staffing Levels at 11 Airports in Australia (adapted from Beale 2009). Working paper 3. COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS 3. Consequences - consequences of a successful terrorist attack 4. Risk Reduction - degree to which the proposed security measure The standard definition of risk is: is likely to reduce either the consequences, vulnerability or the likelihood of a terrorist attack (Risk) = (Threat) X (Vulnerability) X (Consequences) 5. Co-Benefits - benefits of security measure not related to risk reduction where 6. Cost - cost of the proposed security measure • Threat - annual probability there will be a terrorist attempt The Australian Office of Best Practice Regulation (OBPR), U.S. Office • Vulnerability - probability of loss (that the explosive will of Management and Budget (OMB) and other regulatory agencies be successfully detonated or the gun will fire leading to strongly recommend risk-neutral attitudes in their decision-making damage and loss of life) given the attempt as described by the above equations (e.g., OBPR 2010, OMB 1992, • Consequences - loss or consequence (economic costs, Faber and Stewart 2003, Sunstein 2002, Stewart et al. 2011). This number of people harmed) if the attack is successful in entails using mean or average estimates for risk and cost-benefit causing damage.
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