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Climate and the Autumnal Moth (Epirrita Autumnata) at Mountain Birch (Betula

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Climate and the Autumnal Moth (Epirrita Autumnata) at Mountain Birch (Betula CLIMATE AND THE AUTUMNAL MOTH (Epirrita autumnata) AT MOUNTAIN BIRCH (Betula pubecens ssp. czerepanovii) TREELINES IN NORTHERN SWEDEN A Thesis by AMANDA BEATRICE YOUNG Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE August 2008 Major Subject: Geography CLIMATE AND THE AUTUMNAL MOTH (Epirrita autumnata) AT MOUNTAIN BIRCH (Betula pubecens ssp. czerepanovii) TREELINES IN NORTHERN SWEDEN A Thesis by AMANDA BEATRICE YOUNG Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Approved by: Chair of Committee, David M. Cairns Committee Members, Charles Lafon Fred Smeins Head of Department, Douglas Sherman August 2008 Major Subject: Geography iii ABSTRACT Climate and the Autumnal Moth (Epirrita autumnata) at Mountain Birch (Betula pubecens ssp. czerepanovii) Treelines in Northern Sweden. (August 2008) Amanda Beatrice Young, B.A., Gustavus Adolphus College Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. David M. Cairns The main objectives of this investigation were to determine the impact of climate on mountain birch (Betula pubecens ssp. czerepanovii (Orlova)) growth and to develop a regional chronology of autumnal moth outbreaks. To accomplish the objective, cores of mountain birch were taken from 21 sites in Norrbotten, Sweden. Tree-ring chronologies were developed for each site. Climatic influences were determined by correlating ring widths to climatic variables (average monthly temperature, average monthly precipitation and NAO). Outbreaks were recovered from the ring width indices using the non-host method with Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris (L.)) as the non-host. This method removes the climatic influence on growth to enhance other factors. Patterns of synchrony and regional outbreaks were detected using regression and cluster analysis techniques. The primary climatic influences on the tree ring growth of mountain birch are June and July temperatures; precipitation during October is of secondary importance. Climate explained 46% of yearly tree ring width variation. Outbreaks of the autumnal moth occur at varying time intervals depending on the scale of study. Intervals between iv outbreaks on the tree level are twice as long as at the plot level. On the regional scale plots within the same valley had more similar outbreak intervals and magnitudes of outbreaks. Elevation is a driver in determining the length of outbreaks and length between outbreaks. The percent monocormicity of a plot is also a determining factor of the length between outbreaks. This study is the first regional scale study on climate and outbreaks of the autumnal moth on mountain birch. The results complement research being conducted on autumnal moth larval densities and will help in modeling and assessing the effects of outbreaks with increasing climatic change. v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my committee chair, Dr. Cairns, and my committee members, Dr. Lafon and Dr. Smeins, for their guidance and support throughout the course of this research. I would also like to thank Dr. Cairns, Dr. Lafon, Dr. Moen and Laura Martin for their time spent hiking and coring trees through the bug infested Scandes Mountains. Thanks also go to my friends and colleagues and the Geography Department faculty and staff at Texas A&M University. I greatly appreciate the financial support for this research by the National Science Foundations. Lastly, I would like to thank my family and friends for their enduring support. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT.............................................................................................................. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................... v TABLE OF CONTENTS.......................................................................................... vi LIST OF FIGURES................................................................................................... viii LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................... x CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION................................................................................ 1 Specific Aims of Research ............................................................ 2 II LITERATURE REVIEW..................................................................... 3 Treeline........................................................................................... 3 Mountain Birch.............................................................................. 8 Autumnal Moth.............................................................................. 13 Dendrochronology.......................................................................... 26 III METHODS........................................................................................... 34 Study Site....................................................................................... 34 Sample Design................................................................................ 34 Sample Preparation........................................................................ 38 Data Analysis................................................................................. 41 Detecting Outbreaks....................................................................... 64 Stepwise Linear Regression ........................................................... 69 Cluster Analysis............................................................................. 69 IV RESULTS............................................................................................. 71 Dendrochronology.......................................................................... 71 Dendroclimatology......................................................................... 71 Outbreaks....................................................................................... 78 vii CHAPTER Page Stepwise Linear Regression ................................................................. 88 Cluster Analysis................................................................................... 95 V DISCUSSION ...................................................................................... 98 Chronology and Climate ...................................................................... 98 Outbreaks ............................................................................................. 102 VI CONCLUSIONS.................................................................................. 109 REFERENCES.......................................................................................................... 112 VITA ......................................................................................................................... 130 viii LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1 Map of Fennoscandia (without Iceland)............................................ 35 Figure 2 Climograph of the regional monthly average precipitation and temperature for Norbotten, Sweden. ................................................. 36 Figure 3 Location of study plots in Norrbotten, Sweden................................. 37 Figure 4 Example of a mountain birch plot..................................................... 39 Figure 5 Example of a typical Scots pine plot................................................. 40 Figure 6 First method of standardization......................................................... 43 Figure 7 Raw tree ring width indices of all cores (black) and the mean (red) at Järmärä site (JAB)......................................................................... 45 Figure 8 Second method of standardization .................................................... 46 Figure 9 Averaged chronologies produced by ARSTAN................................ 47 Figure 10 Voronoi diagram of precipitation for weather stations percent area coverage in Norrbotten, Sweden. ...................................................... 51 Figure 11 Regional precipitation series 1913-1997........................................... 52 Figure 12 Voronoi diagram of temperature for weather stations percent area coverage in Norrbotten, Sweden. ...................................................... 53 Figure 13 Regional temperature series 1913-1997............................................ 54 Figure 14 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) series 1913-1997 ........................ 62 Figure 15 Correlations between regional precipitation and temperature data with NAO .................................................................................. 63 Figure 16 Correlation and response functions between the regional climate and NAO series .................................................................... 76 ix Page Figure 17 Number of outbreaks recorded per year at Abisko ........................... 80 Figure 18 Percent of outbreaks recorded per year at Abisko............................. 81 Figure 19 Outbreaks for all regions with 50, 40, 30, 20 and 10% filters .......... 82 Figure 20 Outbreaks in all plots with a 20% filter compared to the historical outbreak chronology.......................................................................... 89 Figure 21 Stepwise linear regressions of outbreak and ring characteristics compared to dependent variables. .................................................... 92 Figure 22 Cluster analysis of percent outbreaks for the common time period of 1944-2003 ...................................................................................
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