Middle East & North Africa Regional Summary
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Middle East & North Africa Regional Summary April 15, 2014 Max Security Solutions Ltd. Office: +44 20 3540 0434 www.max-security.com Month Day, Year Executive Summary Across the Middle East and North Africa, tensions remain high amidst political turmoil across the region, linked largely to upcoming elections in various states and concerns over spillover from the Syrian conflict. In Libya, despite the impending end to oil terminal blockades in the restive eastern regions, anti-government sentiments continue to rise amidst persistent insecurity, resulting in ten-day civil disobedience campaigns in Tripoli and Benghazi. In Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood protests continue on a weekly basis, while displaying an increasingly violent nature, particularly following the resignation of former Field Marshal Abdel Fatah al-Sisi ahead of his bid for the presidency. In Tunisia, meanwhile, crackdowns on extremist preachers and mosques sparked clashes in outlying areas, while security forces continue to dismantle militant cells in urban areas, most recently in Sfax. Finally, in Algeria, unrest in outlying areas persists in the lead up to April HIGH17 RISKpresidential elections, with concerns rising over a possible escalation in anti- government protest campaigns in the event of incumbent President Bouteflika's expected victory. Meanwhile in the Eastern Mediterranean, tensions peaked in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, highlighted by Israel's cancellation of a fourth prisoner release and the Palestinian Authority's application for membership in numerous international conventions. In addition, Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham militants continue to entrench their positions outside of Baghdad, amidst concerns over rising violence ahead of parliamentary elections on April 30. In Lebanon, the implementation of security plans in Tripoli and the Bekaa Valley underscores government efforts to mitigate escalating sectarian tensions and violence related to the ongoing Syrian conflict . Page 2 Similar concerns have impacted countries in the Persian Gulf region, amidst legislation in numerous Gulf States imposing penalties on participating in or funding foreign conflicts, as well as setting deadlines for the return of combatants. In particular, such measures were recently instated in Bahrain, amidst an uptick in militant attacks surrounding the Formula 1 Gulf Air Grand Prix. Finally, in Iran, the government reportedly continues to adhere to agreements regarding its nuclear program, with negotiations on a permanent agreement likely to continue despite regional tensions. Max Security Solutions Ltd. Office: +44 20 3540 0434 www.max-security.com The following list contains countries in the region with notable developments from the past two weeks. Please choose your country of interest by clicking on its link below. HIGH RISK Egypt ...................................................................................................................................... 4 Iraq......................................................................................................................................... 8 Lebanon ............................................................................................................................... 12 Libya..................................................................................................................................... 16 MEDIUM RISK Algeria .................................................................................................................................. 21 Bahrain ................................................................................................................................ 25 Iran....................................................................................................................................... 30 Israel & Palestinian Territories ............................................................................................ 34 Tunisia ................................................................................................................................. 37 Notable Dates for the period of April 15-30 .................................................................... 41 Page 3 Max Security Solutions Ltd. Office: +44 20 3540 0434 www.max-security.com HIGH RISK Egypt Near-daily Muslim Brotherhood student protests on university campuses characterized by increasing incidents of violence, including the use of explosive devices, and an uptick in clashes with security forces resulting in deaths of protesters. Sinai Peninsula militancy persists despite Egyptian military campaigns, including the killing of a prominent militant in the northern Sinai on April 11 Labor strikes harm Egyptian industry, underscoring deep social and economic discontent in working class We advise against all nonessential travel to Cairo and Alexandria at this time due to the persistent risk of civil unrest in major cities, militant attacks, and violence targeting foreigners. Back to table of contents ASSESSMENTS Muslim Brotherhood protest campaign Clashes between security forces and students supporting ousted president Mohammed Morsi continued through April, culminating in a series of explosions at Cairo University on April 2, killing three, including a high-ranking police officer. Protests have focused on three universities in Cairo, al-Azhar University, Ain Shams University, and Cairo University. The leading protest group, Students Against the Coup, has reported over 200 students arrested since the beginning of protests, with dozens of injuries and several dead, most recently on April 14 during clashes between student activists and security forces at Cairo University during protests organized by the National Alliance to Support Legitimacy (NASL). In response to the protests, security forces have heightened their presence on the campuses. The explosions at Cairo University underscore increasingly violent civil unrest targeting university campuses, which has expanded from the use of Molotov cocktails and burning of police cars to the use of improvised explosive devices. Recently, security forces dismantled 12 explosive devices at Ain Shams University on April 8, as well as an additional seven a day earlier. In response to the uptick in violence, police have established a more permanent presence on university campuses. This presence comes despite a court ruling in 2010, which ordered police guards to be removed from Page universities and to be replaced by civilian security guards. 4 Meanwhile, the recent uptick in violence and growing police presence on campuses underlines growing tension between authorities and Islamists in the run-up to elections in May, which former Field Marshal Abdel Fatah al-Sisi is expected to win. As long as security forces maintain their presence on campuses, student protests are expected to continue, as well as violence aimed at said security forces. In addition, Interim President Adly Mansour recently issued a decree, giving university heads expanded powers to expel students who are found guilty of "committing subversive acts and disruption of Max Security Solutions Ltd. Office: +44 20 3540 0434 www.max-security.com the educational process". Additional expulsions, of which there have been dozens, may add to tensions on campus and fuel protest campaigns. Militancy During the past two weeks militants have continued to target security officers and installations in the capital, as well as in the Sinai Peninsula and Nile Delta, highlighted by the April 2 bombings on Cairo University, for which militant group Ajnad Misr (Soldiers of Egypt) claimed responsibility. In addition, the Egyptian military announced that they had killed a prominent Islamist militant in north Sinai, Nour Hamdeen. Hamdeen has been reported as a leader in Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM). The U.S. State Department labeled ABM a foreign terrorist organization on April 9, in a move followed by the Egyptian government’s designation of the group as such on April 14. Meanwhile, on April 7 security forces claimed to arrest Thirwat Salah Shehata, an Egyptian who long served as one Ayman al Zawahiri's top deputies, in a Cairo suburb. An official source claimed the militant was planning attacks in Sharm el-Sheikh Since July 2013, over 330 reported attacks have taken place in the Sinai Peninsula, carried out mostly against security forces. The persistency of these militant organizations, along with their extended reach into Egypt’s largest cities, underline the growth of both organized and unsophisticated militancy in Egypt, and the long-term threat it presents to Egyptian security. In this context, Shehata’s arrest in Cairo underscores the presence of militant factions in the capital, despite heightened security measures and counter-militancy efforts, further highlighted by previous sophisticated militant attacks in the capital including a January 24 bombing of the Cairo Security Directorate. Such considerations, as well as the U.S. precedent, likely prompted the Cairo Court of First Instance to declare ABM a terrorist organization. ❖ With this in mind, the April 14 designation, the State Department designation, and Hamdeen’s death increase the potential for reprisal attacks by ABM and other linked militant groups over the coming weeks and months. This additionally includes by organizations such as Ajnad Misr, through the use of unsophisticated improvised explosive devices during Brotherhood protests, as well as sophisticated attacks by ABM and more organized militant factions.