DOCSLIB.ORG

Hurricane-Curry Guadeloupe

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Hurricane-Curry Guadeloupe Global Climate Change and Hurricanes: the Science, the Controversy & the Risk Judith A. Curry Deadliest Hurricanes to Hit Central America and the Caribbean Storm Deaths Locations Affected Great Hurricane of 1780 >22,000 Barbados, Martinique Hurricane Mitch (1998) 11,000 – 18,000 Honduras, Nicaragua Hurricane Fifi (1974) 8,000 – 10,000 Belize, Guatemala, Honduras Hurricane Flora (1963) 7,186 – 8,000 Tobago, Hispaniola, Cuba 1930 Dominican Republic Hurricane 2,000 – 8,000 Hispaniola, Cuba Pointe-a-Pitre Bay Hurricane (1776) >6,000 Martinique, Guadeloupe San Ciriaco Hurricane (1899) 3,433 Puerto Rico 1932 Cuba Hurricane 3,033 Cuba, Bahamas 1934 Yucatan Hurricane 1,000 – 3,000 Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras 1931 Belize Hurricane 2,500 Belize, Guatemala Hurricane Stan (2005) 1,620 Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica Atlantic Landfalling Storms Striking CentralHurricane Strength AmericaDistribution for Landfalling and Storms inthe Central AmericaCaribbean and the Carribean 35 30 25 20 15 Number of Systems 10 5 0 1951-1955 1956-1960 1961-1965 1966-1970 1971-1975 1976-1980 1981-1985 1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 Year Tropical Storms/Depressions Cat 1&2 Cat 3, 4, 5 Are more hurricanes a harbinger of the Caribbean’s future? To assess the Caribbean’s risk from landfalling hurricanes in the coming decades, we must understand: . Impact of global warming on hurricane activity . Natural variability in the Atlantic Ocean . Nature of local risks INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE WMO 4th Assessment Report UNEP Summary for Policy Makers “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level.” “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely [>90%] due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” UNEP Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 Global surface temperature has increased 0.74oC since 1906 Meehl et al, 2004 Increased global temperatures since 1970 is attributed to greenhouse warming IPCC AR4: Hurricanes WMO Detection of Change UNEP . There is observational evidence for an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures . There are suggestions of increased intense tropical cyclone activity in other regions where concerns over data quality are greater . Multi-decadal variability and the quality of the tropical cyclone records prior to 1970 complicate the detection of long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity UNEP North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones and SST 11 year running mean surface aircraft satellite recon Increased tropical cyclone activity since 1970, correlated with increasing sea surface temperatures Global View of Tropical Cyclones W. Pacific Ocean N. Atlantic Ocean 40% 11% N. Indian Ocean E. Pacific Ocean 6% 17% S. Indian Ocean SW Pacific Ocean 19% 8% Each year there are about 85-90 tropical cyclones globally Global tropical cyclone intensity Webster, Holland, Curry, Chang (2005) Science # of cat 4+5 hurricanes has doubled globally since 1970 Data quality questioned in the Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean Wall Street Journal February 2, 2006 Cold Front Debate Shatters Civility of Weather Science Hurricanes Worsened by Global Warming? Spats are so tempestuous, sides are barely talking Charge of “brain fossilization” Tropical cyclone genesis/intensification factors Sea water temperature > 26.5oC. Major hurricanes >28.5oC Small vertical shear (minimal variation of wind with height) Moist mid-troposphere & convective instability Pre-existing weather disturbance Not too close to the equator These factors change both with natural climate variability (e.g., El Nino) and global warming Global trends in the tropics since 1970 Sea surface temperature Wind shear 0.5oC (1oF) increase no trend Hoyos et al. 2006 IPCC AR4: Hurricanes WMO Projections of Future Change UNEP . It is likely [>66%] that future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical SSTs . The apparent increase in the proportion of very intense storms since 1970 in some regions is much larger than simulated by current models for that period UNEP TC intensity - SST link Hurricane intensity change scaled for a 0.5oC SST increase: Webster et al. obs: +6.0% Climate models: Knutsen/Tuleya (2004): +2.0% Oouchi et al. (2006): +2.1% Potential intensity theory: Emanuel +2.7% Holland +5.3% 3-legged stool analogy: Observations, theory, and climate models agree that hurricane intensity should increase; they disagree on the magnitude of the increase. The stool stands. Intensity Distribution of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones 50% 45% 40% 35% TS 30% Cat1 Cat2 25% Cat3 20% Cat4 15% Cat5 10% 5% 0% 1970-1982 1983-1994 1995-2006 Since 1995, there has been a shift in the intensity distribution towards more major hurricanes What does the future hold for hurricane activity in the North Atlantic? Combined impacts of greenhouse warming and natural variability ClimateThe uncertain Model climate Projections future WMO UNEP Jkljl Jlkjlj Lhjljk Scenario simulations indicate 1.8-4.0oC temperature increase by 2100 Climate model projections of future hurricane activity For a 2.5oC temperature increase: • up to 30% increase in number of N. Atlantic tropical cyclones (no increase or slight decrease in global numbers) • 10% increase in tropical cyclone intensity • 30% increase in the number of major hurricanes Relationship between # of Atlantic storms and sea-surface temperature Obs: 1oF increase in SST --> +5 storms/year Model: 1oF increase in SST --> +1 storm /year North Atlantic Ocean 11 year centered running mean 14 Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) 12 10 8 6 Number of Storms 4 2 0 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 Named Storms Hurricanes Cat. 4&5 Since 1995, there has been 40-50% greater activity than the previous peak period ca. 1950 Projections for the average number of NATL tropical cyclones for 2025 (0.5oC warming) # of Tropical Cyclones: • Avg for last 50 yrs: 10 • Avg last decade: 14 • Avg ca. 2025: 15-20 category 4+5 3-4 The combination of greenhouse warming and natural variability will produce unprecedented tropical cyclone activity in the coming decades What does the increase in North Atlantic hurricane activity mean for the Caribbean? Landfalling tropical cyclones striking the Caribbean and Central America 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Hurricane Landfall Location 25% 1900-2006 1900-1969 1970-2006 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% T&T Cuba Haiti Rico Belize / Mexico Republic HondurasNicaragua Bahamas Puerto Lesser Antilles Mexico(Yucatan) Venezuela Jamaica/Caymans Dominican SST Changes: Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Warmest decade Summary: Projection for next two decades . The number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones most likely will increase in coming decades and intensity is expected to continue to increase . The number of Caribbean landfalls will most likely continue to increase UNEP.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Part 1-B Cause & Impact of Landfalling Tropical Cyclone
    Part 1-b Cause & Impact of Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Rainfall & River Flooding • In addition to high winds & storm surge, all tropical storms can produce torrential rains causing massive flooding & trigger landslides and debris floods • Catastrophic flash flooding may occur as a result of intense rainfall over a relatively short duration. Longer duration storms, say a few days, can be equally devastating. 2 River flooding associated with heavy rainfall from tropical cyclones Flood stages & inundation maps • Rain-triggered flooding is not confined to coastal areas. The reach of a large tropical storm can cause flooding well inland, especially along the estuaries. • Beneficial contributions of tropical cyclones: rainfall for needed water supply in the region; and maintenance of global heat balance 5 Cases of landfalling of catastrophic tropical cyclones • Hurricane Andrew , August 24, 1993- Florida • Hurricane Allison , June 5-9, 2001- Houston and TX and LA coasts • Hurricane Katrina , Aug 29, 2005- New Orleans & LA and TX coasts • Hurricane Mitch , Oct 26- Nov 5, Honduras, Salvador, Nicaragua, and Guatemala • Typhoon Morakot , August 3-10, 2009, Taiwan • Typhoon Ketsana , Sept 23-30, 2009, Manila, Philippine , Vietnam & Cambodia 6 Hurricane Andrew (Aug24,1993) 7 Hurricane Andrew (Aug24,1993) Source: Report on Hurricane Andrew Storm Summary & Impacts on Florida Beaches, by USACE & Florida DNR, May 1993 Pressure zones, wind zones and storm surge contour 9 Surge at landfall & waves height Storm surges Wave Heights 10 Impact of gusts on homes 11 Impacts on beaches of Florida 12 Erosion and accretion of beach profiles 13 Hurricane Allison, June 5-9, 2001 * Hurricane Allison’s swath of rainfall – 25-50 cm or more rainfall in coastal TX & LA for nearly 6 days.
    [Show full text]
  • Observed Hurricane Wind Speed Asymmetries and Relationships to Motion and Environmental Shear
    1290 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 142 Observed Hurricane Wind Speed Asymmetries and Relationships to Motion and Environmental Shear ERIC W. UHLHORN NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida BRADLEY W. KLOTZ Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, Florida TOMISLAVA VUKICEVIC,PAUL D. REASOR, AND ROBERT F. ROGERS NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 6 June 2013, in final form 19 November 2013) ABSTRACT Wavenumber-1 wind speed asymmetries in 35 hurricanes are quantified in terms of their amplitude and phase, based on aircraft observations from 128 individual flights between 1998 and 2011. The impacts of motion and 850–200-mb environmental vertical shear are examined separately to estimate the resulting asymmetric structures at the sea surface and standard 700-mb reconnaissance flight level. The surface asymmetry amplitude is on average around 50% smaller than found at flight level, and while the asymmetry amplitude grows in proportion to storm translation speed at the flight level, no significant growth at the surface is observed, contrary to conventional assumption. However, a significant upwind storm-motion- relative phase rotation is found at the surface as translation speed increases, while the flight-level phase remains fairly constant. After removing the estimated impact of storm motion on the asymmetry, a significant residual shear direction-relative asymmetry is found, particularly at the surface, and, on average, is located downshear to the left of shear. Furthermore, the shear-relative phase has a significant downwind rotation as shear magnitude increases, such that the maximum rotates from the downshear to left-of-shear azimuthal location.
    [Show full text]
  • Resilience Potential: Assessing Jamaica's “Bounce-Back” from Hurricane Dean
    Resilience Potential: Assessing Jamaica’s “Bounce-Back” from Hurricane Dean CaPRI is a Caribbean think tank that promotes evidence- based policymaking in the region. CaPRI espouses a methodology which is built on the values of multi- disciplinary work, team work and the utilization of the diaspora in our search for evidence. Committed to the region’s development, CaPRI has strong linkages with the academic community, the private sector and civil society. For information and feedback, please contact: Caribbean Policy Research Institute GUANGO TREE HOUSE, 29 MUNROE ROAD, KINGSTON 6 JAMAICA, W.I. TEL: (876) 970-3447 (876) 970-2910 FAX: (876) 970-4544 E-mail: [email protected] WEBSITE: http://www.takingresponsibility.org 2 Table of Contents Pages List of Figures, Tables and Boxes .............................................................4 Preface......................................................................................................5 Executive Summary .................................................................................6-7 Introduction: Resilience Potential ...........................................................8-9 1. Natural Disasters: The Global Context................................................10-13 2. Natural Disasters in the Caribbean .....................................................14-18 3. Changing Practices in Disaster Management…………………………19-20 4. Disaster Management in Jamaica .....................................................21 4.1 National Disaster Plan…………………………………………….21
    [Show full text]
  • Long-Term Development in Post-Disaster Intentional Communities in Honduras
    From Tragedy to Opportunity: Long-term Development in Post-Disaster Intentional Communities in Honduras A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA BY Ryan Chelese Alaniz IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Ronald Aminzade June 2012 © Ryan Alaniz 2012 Acknowledgements Like all manuscripts of this length it took the patience, love, and encouragement of dozens of people and organizations. I would like to thank my parents for their support, numerous friends who provided feedback in informal conversations, my amazing editor and partner Jenny, my survey team, and the residents of Nueva Esperanza, La Joya, San Miguel Arcangel, Villa El Porvenir, La Roca, and especially Ciudad España and Divina for their openness in sharing their lives and experiences. Finally, I would like to thank Doug Hartmann, Pat McNamara, David Pellow, and Ross MacMillan for their generosity of time and wisdom. Most importantly I would like to express my gratitude to my advisor, Ron, who is an inspiration personally and professionally. I would also like to thank the following organizations and fellowship sponsors for their financial support: the University of Minnesota and the Department of Sociology, the Social Science Research Council, Fulbright, the Bilinski Foundation, the Public Entity Risk Institute, and the Diversity of Views and Experiences (DOVE) Fellowship. i Dedication This dissertation is dedicated to all those who have been displaced by a disaster and have struggled/continue to struggle to rebuild their lives. It is also dedicated to my son, Santiago. May you grow up with a desire to serve the most vulnerable.
    [Show full text]
  • UB Powerpoint Template
    converge.colorado.edu CONVERGE ethical, coordinated, and scientifically rigorous social science, engineering, and interdisciplinary extreme events research Lori Peek Principal Investigator, CONVERGE, SSEER, and ISEEER Director, Natural Hazards Center Professor, Department of Sociology University of Colorado Boulder Session 2: Collecting, Managing, and Archiving Social and Behavioral Science Data Describe opportunities for identifying and coordinating social science researchers so that we can best share information and publish our data as well as data collection protocols using DOIs, repositories, etc. Discuss some of the overarching challenges and concerns with sharing social science data, such as privacy, data management plans and related IRB policies, duplication vs. replication, etc. converge.colorado.edu 4 Things converge.colorado.edu 1. NSF has funded the CONVERGE initiative converge.colorado.edu Why CONVERGE? Why CONVERGE? • identify and coordinate researchers and research teams; • advance hazards and disaster research; • encourage the publication of data and data collection instruments and protocols (DesignSafe Cyberinfrastructure + CONVERGE). • support and accelerate training and mentoring; • fund virtual reconnaissance, field research, and the development of novel research instruments and data collection protocols; • accelerate the development of mobile applications for social science data collection (NHERI RAPID); Why CONVERGE? 2. NSF Supports Extreme Events Research (EER) Networks converge.colorado.edu Why the EER’s? Disciplinary
    [Show full text]
  • Storm Modification Although Experts in the Meteorological Field Aren’T Enthusiastic About These Ideas Due to the Inconclusive Results from Project Stormfury
    Solving Today’s Hurricane Problem Through Modification Submitted by: Greg Machos Webmaster/Owner www.hurricaneville.com Submitted to: Dr. Stephan Nelson Director of Atmospheric Science National Science Foundation Room 775 4201 Wilson Boulevard Arlington, VA 22230 April 27, 2001 Final Proposal for Business and Professional Writing If found, please return to: Mark Waren Department of English Murray Hall, Room 032 College Avenue Campus, Rutgers University i ABSTRACT This proposal is for a research study that will attempt to combine the best elements of both the federal government and private industry projects on hurricane intensification and modification. There will be a difference in the way a hurricane will be attacked. Rather than trying to attack it through seeding its inner core, this proposal will try to use wind shear at the upper levels to destroy the storm’s vertical structure. Past research has shown that work in this area of study has had positive impacts on hurricane forecasting that ultimately saved lives. Furthermore, technology has improved significantly over the last twenty years and with the tremendous strides made in weather forecasting over the past century, now may be a great time to revisit this kind of research again. Coastal communities in the eastern half of the United States as well as many underdeveloped countries in the Caribbean and Central America are more vulnerable than ever to a major hurricane like Hurricane Andrew in 1992 or Hurricane Mitch in 1998. Hurricane Andrew caused approximately $27 billion dollars in damage after making landfall in South Florida while Hurricane Mitch left an estimated 11,000 people dead from heavy rains over a period of several days.
    [Show full text]
  • HURRICANE IRMA (AL112017) 30 August–12 September 2017
    NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT HURRICANE IRMA (AL112017) 30 August–12 September 2017 John P. Cangialosi, Andrew S. Latto, and Robbie Berg National Hurricane Center 1 24 September 2021 VIIRS SATELLITE IMAGE OF HURRICANE IRMA WHEN IT WAS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND MADE LANDFALL ON BARBUDA AT 0535 UTC 6 SEPTEMBER. Irma was a long-lived Cape Verde hurricane that reached category 5 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The catastrophic hurricane made seven landfalls, four of which occurred as a category 5 hurricane across the northern Caribbean Islands. Irma made landfall as a category 4 hurricane in the Florida Keys and struck southwestern Florida at category 3 intensity. Irma caused widespread devastation across the affected areas and was one of the strongest and costliest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic basin. 1 Original report date 9 March 2018. Second version on 30 May 2018 updated casualty statistics for Florida, meteorological statistics for the Florida Keys, and corrected a typo. Third version on 30 June 2018 corrected the year of the last category 5 hurricane landfall in Cuba and corrected a typo in the Casualty and Damage Statistics section. This version corrects the maximum wind gust reported at St. Croix Airport (TISX). Hurricane Irma 2 Hurricane Irma 30 AUGUST–12 SEPTEMBER 2017 SYNOPTIC HISTORY Irma originated from a tropical wave that departed the west coast of Africa on 27 August. The wave was then producing a widespread area of deep convection, which became more concentrated near the northern portion of the wave axis on 28 and 29 August.
    [Show full text]
  • Preleminary Report IP and ETA&IOTA Hurricanes .Indd
    PRELIMINARY REPORT November 2020 ConsequencesConsequences ofof thethe HurricaneHurricane 20202020 SeasonSeason onon IndigenousIndigenous CommunitiesCommunities inin CentralCentral AmericaAmerica Destruction and Resilience PRELIMINARY REPORT ON THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE 2020 HURRICANE SEASON ON INDIGENOUS COMMUNITIES IN CEN- TRAL AMERICA DESTRUCTION AND RESILIENCE NOVEMBER 2020 GENERAL COORDINATION Myrna Cunningham Kain - President of FILAC Board of Directors Jesús Amadeo Martínez - General Coordinator of the Indigenous Forum of AbyaYala FIAY GENERAL SUPERVISION Álvaro Pop - FILAC Technical Secretary Amparo Morales - FILAC Chief of Staff TECHNICAL TEAM Ricardo Changala - Coordinator of the Regional Observatory for the Rights of Indigenous Peoples ORDPI FILAC Liber- tad Pinto - Technical Team ORDPI-FILAC Jean Paul Guevara - Technical Team ORDPI-FILAC TECHNICAL SUPPORT Ernesto Marconi - FILAC Technical Program Management Gabriel Mariaca - Coordinator of Institutional Communication FILAC Dennis Mairena - Management of Technical Programs FILAC Wendy Medina - FILAC Communication and Press Office GRAPHIC DESIGN Institutional Communication - FILAC IMAGES FILAC Imaging Archive UN Photos Shutterstock Unsplash LICENSE FOR DISTRIBUTION CC-BY-NC 4.0 This license allows reusers to distribute, remix, adapt, and build upon the material in any medium or format for noncommercial purposes only, and only so long as attribution is given to the creator. Credit must be given to the creator Only noncommercial uses of the work are permitted DOGOTAL ACCESS ON: https://indigenascovid19.red/monitoreo/ FILAC 20 de Octubre 2287 esq. Rosendo Gutiérrez [email protected] La Paz, Bolivia SUPPORT Ford Foundation, AECID and Pawanka Fund Introduction This document is a preliminary report on the human and material impacts of hurricanes Eta and Iota on the Central American isthmus. It has been an extraordinary fact that two hurricanes of this size and strength have hit the region so close in time, affecting all Central American countries.
    [Show full text]
  • Toward a Sustainable Recovery After Hurricane Mitch
    Lessons from the Field Reasons for Resiliency: Toward a Sustainable Recovery after Hurricane Mitch This report presents the methods and findings of an action research effort to measure and compare the impact of Hurricane Mitch on conventionally and agroecologically farmed lands in Honduras, Nicaragua and Guatemala. The project included farmers, promoters and local organizations as full partners in the research process, from beginning to end, and was de- signed to stimulate reflection and action based upon the lessons learned. Published by World Neighbors 2000 Printed in Honduras Also available in Spanish World Neighbors - Central America Office Apartado 3385 Tegulcigalpa HONDURAS tel: 504-230-2006 fax: 504-230-2004 email: [email protected] World Neighbors - International Headquarters 4127 NW 122nd Street Oklahoma City, OK 73120-8869 USA tel: (405) 752-9700 fax: (405) 752-9393 email: [email protected] www.wn.org Major support for this project was provided by the Ford Foundation, The Summit Foundation, The Rockefeller Foundation and the Inter-American Foundation Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ....................................................................................................................... 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................... 5 Hurricane Mitch Action Research Key Results INTRODUCTION ...............................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Ever Faithful
    Ever Faithful Ever Faithful Race, Loyalty, and the Ends of Empire in Spanish Cuba David Sartorius Duke University Press • Durham and London • 2013 © 2013 Duke University Press. All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper ∞ Tyeset in Minion Pro by Westchester Publishing Services. Library of Congress Cataloging- in- Publication Data Sartorius, David A. Ever faithful : race, loyalty, and the ends of empire in Spanish Cuba / David Sartorius. pages cm Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978- 0- 8223- 5579- 3 (cloth : alk. paper) ISBN 978- 0- 8223- 5593- 9 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Blacks— Race identity— Cuba—History—19th century. 2. Cuba— Race relations— History—19th century. 3. Spain— Colonies—America— Administration—History—19th century. I. Title. F1789.N3S27 2013 305.80097291—dc23 2013025534 contents Preface • vii A c k n o w l e d g m e n t s • xv Introduction A Faithful Account of Colonial Racial Politics • 1 one Belonging to an Empire • 21 Race and Rights two Suspicious Affi nities • 52 Loyal Subjectivity and the Paternalist Public three Th e Will to Freedom • 94 Spanish Allegiances in the Ten Years’ War four Publicizing Loyalty • 128 Race and the Post- Zanjón Public Sphere five “Long Live Spain! Death to Autonomy!” • 158 Liberalism and Slave Emancipation six Th e Price of Integrity • 187 Limited Loyalties in Revolution Conclusion Subject Citizens and the Tragedy of Loyalty • 217 Notes • 227 Bibliography • 271 Index • 305 preface To visit the Palace of the Captain General on Havana’s Plaza de Armas today is to witness the most prominent stone- and mortar monument to the endur- ing history of Spanish colonial rule in Cuba.
    [Show full text]
  • Aircurrents Novel Tools for Modeling Tropical Cyclone Risk in the Caribbean and Central America
    AIRCURRENTS NOVEL TOOLS FOR MODELING TROPICAL CYCLONE RISK IN THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA By Tim Doggett, Ph.D., and Mr. Scott Stransky 08.2011 Edited by Meagan Phelan INTRODUCTION This article provides an overview of tropical cyclone risk in If a tropical cyclone has only weak winds and does not come the Caribbean and Central America, with a focus on tropical ashore, can it still cause notable insured losses to exposure cyclone-induced flooding, which can be a significant driver nearby? In the Caribbean and Central America, the answer of loss. is yes—primarily as a result of the precipitation hazard associated with tropical cyclones, even those with relatively TROPICAL CYCLONE CLIMATOLOGY IN THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA weak winds. Within the North Atlantic basin, roughly eleven tropical cyclones are spawned each year on average, six of which Indeed, the often-held view that flood-dominated tropical become hurricanes. Of all the landmasses in the basin, cyclones always result in lower insured losses than their the Caribbean islands experience the greatest number of windier counterparts requires a hard look; “wet” storms can storms—and often the most intense. That said, some island significantly impact a company’s portfolio. 1979’s Hurricane countries and territories within the Caribbean are more at David in the Caribbean, from which more than 50% of risk than others; in general, risk increases south to north, losses were flood-related—and which AIR estimates would such that the Bahamas is perhaps the most at-risk country in cause USD 6.0 billion in insured losses if it were to recur the Caribbean today.
    [Show full text]
  • Texas Hurricane History
    Texas Hurricane History David Roth National Weather Service Camp Springs, MD Table of Contents Preface 3 Climatology of Texas Tropical Cyclones 4 List of Texas Hurricanes 8 Tropical Cyclone Records in Texas 11 Hurricanes of the Sixteenth and Seventeenth Centuries 12 Hurricanes of the Eighteenth and Early Nineteenth Centuries 13 Hurricanes of the Late Nineteenth Century 16 The First Indianola Hurricane - 1875 19 Last Indianola Hurricane (1886)- The Storm That Doomed Texas’ Major Port 22 The Great Galveston Hurricane (1900) 27 Hurricanes of the Early Twentieth Century 29 Corpus Christi’s Devastating Hurricane (1919) 35 San Antonio’s Great Flood – 1921 37 Hurricanes of the Late Twentieth Century 45 Hurricanes of the Early Twenty-First Century 65 Acknowledgments 71 Bibliography 72 Preface Every year, about one hundred tropical disturbances roam the open Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. About fifteen of these become tropical depressions, areas of low pressure with closed wind patterns. Of the fifteen, ten become tropical storms, and six become hurricanes. Every five years, one of the hurricanes will become reach category five status, normally in the western Atlantic or western Caribbean. About every fifty years, one of these extremely intense hurricanes will strike the United States, with disastrous consequences. Texas has seen its share of hurricane activity over the many years it has been inhabited. Nearly five hundred years ago, unlucky Spanish explorers learned firsthand what storms along the coast of the Lone Star State were capable of. Despite these setbacks, Spaniards set down roots across Mexico and Texas and started colonies. Galleons filled with gold and other treasures sank to the bottom of the Gulf, off such locations as Padre and Galveston Islands.
    [Show full text]