Looking to the Future of Carbon Markets REPORT
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REPORT GREENHOUSE THE GAS MARKET th 2013 EDITION looking to the future of carbon markets LOOKING TO THE FUTURE OF CARBON MARKETS EDITOR 2013 GREENHOUSE GAS MARKET IETA expresses its gratitude to all Anthony Mansell EDITORIAL COMMITTEE authors who have contributed to Laura Dzelzyte this publication, to the editorial COPY EDITORS Arne Eik, Statoil committee, and all others who have Meegan Kelly Jonathan Grant, PwC worked on the publication. Amanda Mardinay Bob Page, University of Calgary Marisa Meizlish, BP IETA would also like to thank our DESIGN Melanie Shanker, Linklaters sponsors, AitherCO2, Althelia Hitman Creative Media Inc. Anne-Marie Warris, Ecoreflect Ecosphere, and the Industrial www.hitmanmedia.com Adam Whitmore, Rio Tinto Technology Research Institute (ITRI). HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON LONDON 24, rue Merle d’Aubigné 20 F St NW Suite 700 Bravington House, CH-1207, Geneve Washington DC 20001 2 Bravington Walk, Regent Quarter, Switzerland United States Kings Cross, London N1 9AF +41 22 737 05 00 +1 202 507 6276 United Kingdom +44 7967 428 247 BRUSSELS TORONTO Rue de la Loi 235 100 King Street West, Suite 5700 IETA also has representation 1040 Bruxelles Toronto, Ontario M5X 1C7 in Melbourne, San Francisco, Belgium Canada Seoul and Tokyo. +32 2 230 11 60 +1 416 913 0135 About the International Emissions Trading Association (IETA): IETA has been the leading voice of the business community on the subject of carbon markets since 2000. IETA’s 140 member companies include some of the world’s leading corpora- tions, including global leaders in oil, electricity, cement, aluminum, chemical, paper, and other industrial sectors; as well as leading firms in the data verification and certification, brokering and trading, legal, finance, and consulting industries. 2 THE th EDITION IETA GREENHOUSE GAS MARKET 2013 REPORT Pg. About Our Sponsors 06 Opening Statement – Dirk Forrister, President and CEO, IETA Pg. 07 Pg. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Basis – Gian-Kasper Plattner, Simon Allen, Pauline Midgley and 11 Thomas Stocker, University of Bern, Switzerland (IPCC Working Group I) The State of Carbon Pricing Across The World Pg. – Adam Whitmore, Rio Tinto 14 IETA GREENHOUSE GAS MARKET 2013 3 LOOKING TO THE FUTURE OF CARBON MARKETS THE MARKETS pg. Existing Policies Around the World 79 The Cost of Carbon Pricing: Competitiveness Implications for the Mining and Metals Industry pg.18 EU ETS: The Cornerstone of Future EU Energy and Climate Policy? John Drexhage, International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM) Sarah Deblock, IETA and Ingo Ramming, Commerzbank pg.83 Case Study: California’s Response to the Lessons Learned pg. 22 EU ETS Pricing and Trading Trends: Improving Outlook from the EU ETS Trevor Sikorski, Energy Aspects Melanie Shanker and Chris Staples, Linklaters pg.25 Smooth Sailing for California Cap-and-Trade Emilie Mazzacurati, FourTwoSeven THE BRIDGES pg.28 Australia Carbon Policy Update Aligning Markets Within a Fragmented Architecture Martijn Wilder, Baker and McKenzie pg.87 Carbon Pricing, the FVA and the NMM: Charting a Course to a pg.32 Can the Obama Administration meet its Copenhagen Goals? New UNFCCC Agreement Tom Lawler, IETA and Bruce Braine, American Electric Power (AEP) David Hone, Royal Dutch Shell PLC pg.36 The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative: Building on Success pg.90 The Linking Rainbow: Evaluating Different Approaches Colin O’Mara, Secretary of the Delaware Department of Natural Resources to Joining Carbon Markets and Environmental Control Anthony Mansell, IETA and Clayton Munnings, Resources for the Future (RFF) pg. 39 Canada’s Tradable GHG Intensity Standard for Oil and Gas: pg.93 Japan’s Joint Crediting Mechanism: A Bottom-Up CDM? The implications of leading proposals Takashi Hongo, Mitsui Global Strategic Studies Institute Dave Sawyer, EnviroEconomics, and Dale Beugin, IISD pg.96 Lessons from the PMR’s First Years and Looking Forward THE FUTURE World Bank PMR Secretariat Carbon Markets On The Rise pg.99 The B-PMR: One Year On pg.43 The Road to 2020: What Will We Get? Mark Proegler (BP) and Karl Upston-Hooper (Greenstream) Pedro Martins Barata, Get2C pg.101 Leveraging the Potential of the Voluntary Carbon Market as a pg. 45 China’s Carbon Market: Where Next? Credible Tool for Mitigating Climate Change Wu Qian, British Embassy, Beijing Sophy Greenhalgh, IETA and International Carbon Reduction Offset Alliance (ICROA) pg.49 An Overview of Emissions Trading in Korea pg.104 When Trade and Carbon Collide: WTO and Climate Policy Realities Dalwon Kim, European Commission DG Climate Action Elisabeth DeMarco, Norton Rose Fulbright pg.52 Kazakhstan’s developing ETS - an Example of Emerging Carbon Pricing Schemes in the East Friso De Jong, Janina Ketterer, and Jan Willem Van de Ven, European Bank THE TOOLS for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Financing Low Carbon Development pg.56 Market and Non-Market Approaches: A Hybrid Approach in Taiwan pg.109 Financing the Transformation: Hui-Chen Chien, PhD, Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration, The Importance of the Private Sector Wen-Chen Hu, Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI), Robert Shih, Paul Bodnar, United States Department of State YC Consultants, Ltd. pg.113 Adding to the REDD Finance Toolbox pg.59 South Africa’s Carbon Offset Market Development and Prospects Charlie Parker, Climate Focus Patrick Curran and Alex McNamara, Camco Global pg. pg.62 Toward a cap on the carbon emissions of international 116 NAMAs: Aligning Development Imperatives with Private Sector Interests civil aviation: One Step Forward in 2013 Frédéric Gagnon-Lebrun and Jorge Barrigh, Écoressources Annie Petsonk, Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) pg.119 The Green Climate Fund: Paradigm Shift or THE DESIGN Incremental Improvement? Examining What Makes Climate Policy Tick Gwen Andrews, Alstom pg.67 Prospects for the World’s Offsetting Market - pg.122 Analysing the Potential for a CDM Capacity Fund Can the Patient be Cured? Joan MacNaughton, IETA Fellow and Vice Chair, UN High level Panel on the Guy Turner, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Policy Dialogue on the CDM pg.70 Fragmented Markets with Fragmented MRV Practices: pg. Does it Matter? 125 Towards Supranational Climate Tax or Levy: Madlen King, Lloyd’s Register Quality Assurance (LRQA) The Case of the Adaptation Fund Laura Dzeltzyte pg.73 What’s Covered? Trends in Coverage of Different Sectors and Gases pg.128 Private Sector Finance for Adaptation Edwin Aalders, Det Norske Veritas (DNV) Gray Taylor, Bennett Jones LLP 4 Emissions Trading & Consultancy AitherCO2 is a provider of financial services to the Spot and futures transactions world’s environmental and energy markets offering Consultancy consultancy and trading solutions supporting companies subject to compliance as well as in the voluntary sector. Training courses on-site Hedging strategies Apart from the provision of market access both on the regulated exchanges as well as through our vast Offsetting counterparty network we support clients with www.aitherco2.com Voluntary market administration, deadlines, registries, regulation changes and balance sheet optimization of allocated units. Energy Efficiency Milan +39 0236586600 www.aitherco2.com London +44 (0) 2070603626 Barcelona +34 (0) 933306000 info@ aitherco2.com Dakar +221 338203745 AitherCO2 and the ACO2 logo are registered trademarks of AitherCO2 SpA in Italy and other countries. All rights reserved. LOOKING TO THE FUTURE OF CARBON MARKETS IETA GREENHOUSE GAS MARKET 2013 SPONSORS AitherCO2 is a provider of financial services, consultancy and trading solutions to world environmental and energy markets both in the compliance and voluntary sector. We provide market access to industrial and aviation clients both on regulated exchanges as well as OTC (Over The Counter) through our vast counterparty network. We support companies subject to regulatory obligations as well as those operating voluntarily in www.aitherco2.com the environmental markets to deal with administration, deadlines, registries, regulatory @AitherCO2 changes and balance sheet optimization of allocated units. With several years of expe- rience in emissions trading and with one of the most technically up to date and globally connected environmental trading desks in the world, AitherCO2 guarantees fast and reliable services to customers and clients worldwide. Thanks to belief and client trust in AitherCO2, AitherCO2 has grown rapidly, offering a professional and reliable source of knowledge and point of reference for companies subject to the EU ETS regulation. In order to develop CDM projects in Africa we established a dedicated company AC&C (Africa Carbon and Commodities) which offers its expertise both to local entities as well as foreign companies willing to invest in the continent. All our projects take into in consideration the social impact and environmental, creating work opportunities and improving living conditions of the local population. Althelia Ecosphere is an asset management platform dedicated to pioneering new and profitable solutions to address challenges arising from climate change and the depletion and degradation of forests and other natural ecosystems. It manages the Althelia Climate Fund and Althelia Sustainable Landscapes Fund, vehicles set up as www.altheliaecosphere.com public private partnerships to deliver innovation and finance at scale, catalysing the transition towards sustainable land use and conservation of natural ecosystems in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia. Our portfolio demonstrates that competitive financial