Mauritius Times

66th Year -- No. 3631 Tuesday, November 24, 2020 www.mauritiustimes.com facebook.com/mauritius.times 18 Pages - ePaper MAURITIUS TIMES l “In a society governed passively by free markets and free elections, organized greed always defeats disorganized democracy.” -- Matt Taibbi, Griftopia Interview : Jack Bizlall “Si on veut changer les choses à Maurice, il faut à tout prix passer à la Deuxième République” + Voir Pages 7-8-9 Covid-19 vaccines are coming - how Villages: The Irreversible March will we know they work and are safe? of Modernity If the vaccine is to be widely applied, the medical community and the public need to be reassured about its safety By By Adam Kleczkowski, University of Strathclyde * See Page 2 Election results no surprise but… + See Page 2 By Dr R Neerunjun Gopee * See Page 3 Mauritius Times Tuesday, November 24, 2020 www.mauritiustimes.com Edit Page facebook.com/mauritius.times 2 The Conversation Election results no Covid-19 vaccines are coming – how surprise but… will we know they work and are safe? The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine may be rolled out in mere weeks hat would have been surprising as yet no end in sight for the crisis. fizer and BioNTech would have been if the results On the other hand, people are also have just released had been otherwise, that is, the W irked by the repeated refusal of the interim results of MSM-backed or leaning factions had P authorities to provide information about their Covid-19 vaccine obtained a landslide victory. What these the modalities and conditionalities trial. Although it is not the results seem to indicate is that the attached to the generous fiscal stimulus only vaccine in the late uncovering of so many irregularities and packages accorded to various compa- stages of testing, the large dysfunctions in the governance of the nies and businesses, attempts to do so size and careful design of country have definitely had an impact on in Parliament being waived off summari- the trial, not to mention the a good proportion of the citizenry, suffi- ly, or squarely ignored. promising results, have cient enough for them to show their dis- caused understandable satisfaction by voting for the opposing Jobs are being lost, salaries are enthusiasm around the forces that were aligned. The successful being curtailed, thousands of families – world. As we get nearer management of the Covid-19 pandemic and therefore many more thousands of the long-awaited start of a If the vaccine is to be widely applied, the medical community has not been a strong enough counter- people – are failing to provide enough for Covid-19 vaccine roll-out, and the public need to be reassured about its safety. weight against the negative image that themselves, let alone being able to put it is worth looking at how Photo - news.un.org has been trailing the government to date, aside anything for the future which every statisticians help medics and that looks set to endure. Unless… sensible family would do. On the con- can be made, but this was based on the trary they are having to draw upon what- establish the safety of vaccines. Unless, that is, the government is assumption that the vaccine is only 60% ever savings – if any – that they have, How effective is the vaccine? effective. This was based on the seasonal more forthcoming in the elucidation and and naturally these are dwindling. It is not easy to find out how effective a flu vaccine efficacy. However, with the explanation of a number of dark zones Savings can only go so far after all. They vaccine is. First, researchers need to numbers exceeding expectations, the that continue to plague several matters therefore see the future as bleak, and know whether just an act of injecting company decided to release the results at of national concern. And these have to are not comforted by the official narra- somebody can help. The trials involve a one of the interim analysis points. be explicited in a clear and convincing tives that seek to reassure them that large number of people, with half of them communication exercise that has been things are going to look up. Especially Ninety-four cases were reported and given a vaccine and the other half a place- lacking so far, not least being the cava- not in view of the proposed dismantling the split of about 86 cases in the placebo bo. Then the participants need to be lier manner in which questions being of the NPF with the money being trans- group and eight cases among vaccinated exposed to the infection with the expecta- asked in Parliament are being handled. ferred to the Consolidated Fund which yielded 90% efficacy. This level of protec- tion that most of those in the control group This compounds the bad image that everybody knows is used to fund the tion against infection is remarkable. Even become ill, but vaccination protects at already prevails, more so since debates Budget, whereas the NPF acts as an though the study is based on a relatively least some in the treated group. are now televised live and people can autonomous reserve which guarantees small number of cases, statistical analysis form their own opinions. After all, they that pensions are paid. In some cases, such as for HIV or allows the researchers to extrapolate to are literate, educated, and able to judge Ebola, even giving a placebo can be ethi- what might happen when the vaccine is Under more favourable circums- for themselves standards of behaviour cally controversial as they have such a rolled out. tances, that is if the economic situation and practice by comparison with other, high death rate. For coronavirus, the were really better or there were pro- The trial included different ages as well more mature jurisdictions, and are less researchers need to rely on natural infec- mising prospects of forthcoming signifi- as people from different ethnic minority and less hesitant about expressing their tion because no study, at the moment, cant improvements and restoration of groups, but more studies would be anger and disgust. And since any direct intentionally exposes participants to the lost employment, etc, this shift at the needed to assess how the most vulnera- confrontation is likely to be met with coronavirus. As a result, the efficacy cal- polls may not have been so much a mat- ble groups are protected. uncommon force, they have made judi- culation is based on a relatively small ter of concern. After all, interim polls The final efficacy is likely to be lower, cious use of the ballot to express them- number of those who caught Covid-19 by everywhere always downgrade the ru- as administering the treatment is difficult selves. contact with other infected people. ling team. for many logistical reasons, including the Vaccine efficacy reflects a proportion requirement of mRNA-based vaccines, of Together with these dysfunctions, But things are different. Although of the number of those who became ill in which the Pfizer vaccine is one, to be there is another perception that has there are four more years to go before the vaccinated group and in the non-vac- stored at very low temperatures. In the gained ground, and that is that those the general elections are held, there is cinated group. The Pfizer/BioNTech trial real world, the vaccine might not be stored close to the power nexus are out to no saying how things will pan out on the involved nearly 44,000 participants, with at the correct temperature and hence may make as much for themselves as is pos- economic front. There is therefore much 21,999 given the vaccine. The resear- spoil. sible at the expense of the people. In that needs to be done if this shift is to be chers use statistical analysis to set up other words, they are busy enriching reversed – but that the people have sig- How safe is the vaccine? milestones at which they can be increa- themselves in the face of a calamity so nalled that they want change so early in singly confident that the vaccine works – If the vaccine is to be widely applied, widespread – the pandemic – that, as the government’s mandate is unmis- or it does not – as the cases tric-kle in. If the medical community and the public they acknowledge themselves, there is takable. the numbers are small, it would not be need to be reassured about its safety. clear whether the difference in the out- The Pfizer vaccine was administered Mauritius Times comes between the placebo and the to 21,999 people. Some people reported a treated groups is real or just a result of a Founder/Editor: Beekrumsing Ramlallah - Aug 1954-Sept 2000 reaction similar to the one after the sea- random fluke. sonal flu vaccination, but so far no serious Editor-in-chief: M. Ramlallah / Senior Editor: Dr RN Gopee side-effects have been reported. This epaper has been produced with the assistance of Statisticians use the so-called “power analysis” to discover how many cases we Doojesh Ramlallah, Sultana Kurmally and Kersley Ramsamy Adam Kleczkowski need to observe. For the Pfizer and University of Strathclyde Pearl House 4th Floor Room 406 - Sir Virgil Naz Street, Port Louis -- Tel: 5-29 29301 Tel/Fax: 212 1313 BioNTech vaccine, the target was 164 cases when the final estimation of efficacy [email protected] www.mauritiustimes.com facebook.com/mauritius.times * Cont. on page 11 Op-Ed Mauritius Times Tuesday, November 24, 2020 3 Villages: The Irreversible March of Modernity e are said to be living in a 'global Wvillage', a term coined by the Canadian thinker Marshall McLuhan in Dr R Neerunjun Gopee the 1960s, who envisioned the world interconnected via electronic communications.

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